2019 Projection Evaluation

Summary

Batting

System	PA raw	wOBA	SO	BB	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System	BF raw	wOBA	ERA	SO	BB	HR	W	L	SV	HLD	BABIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Everybody Missed for Plate Appearances (PA)

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Giancarlo Stanton	72	625 (553.1)	620 (548.0)	601 (529.2)	649 (577.0)
Jed Lowrie	8	566 (557.8)	594 (586.0)	566 (557.6)	566 (558.0)
Miguel Andujar	49	588 (538.6)	519 (470.0)	557 (508.2)	618 (569.0)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Cedric Mullins	544	74	470.0
2	Mark Trumbo	496	31	464.7
3	Odúbel Herrera	569	139	429.9
4	Ender Inciarte	639	230	409.5
5	Scott Schebler	503	95	408.1
6	Dustin Pedroia	420	21	398.8
7	Daniel Palka	481	93	388.0
8	Mikie Mahtook	405	25	380.4
9	Leury García	249	618	369.4
10	Zack Cozart	476	107	369.2

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Pete Alonso	100	693	593.0
2	Bryan Reynolds	100	546	446.0
3	José Pirela	469	24	445.0
4	Scooter Gennett	569	139	430.0
5	Matt Kemp	491	62	429.0
6	Yangervis Solarte	500	78	422.0
7	Odúbel Herrera	558	139	419.0
8	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	100	514	414.0
9	Eloy Jiménez	100	504	404.0
10	Mark Trumbo	434	31	403.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Bryan Reynolds	7	546	539.3
2	Danny Santana	1	511	510.0
3	Gio Urshela	1	476	475.0
4	Mark Trumbo	503	31	472.4
5	Zack Cozart	574	107	467.5
6	Leury García	157	618	460.7
7	Brian Goodwin	1	458	457.0
8	Christian Walker	151	603	451.8
9	Harold Ramírez	1	446	445.0
10	Eric Sogard	1	442	441.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Cedric Mullins	630	74	556.0
2	Erick Mejia	577	27	550.0
3	Frank Schwindel	552	15	537.0
4	Abiatal Avelino	523	8	515.0
5	Jake Noll	527	13	514.0
6	Chris Shaw	533	20	513.0
7	Magneuris Sierra	549	42	507.0
8	Bobby Bradley	552	49	503.0
9	Lane Thomas	545	44	501.0
10	Ian Miller	514	17	497.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Pete Alonso	100	514	693	593.0	179.5	413.5
2	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	100	515	514	414.0	0.9	413.1
3	Eloy Jiménez	100	553	504	404.0	49.4	354.6
4	Victor Robles	246	536	617	371.0	81.1	289.9
5	Nick Senzel	100	373	414	314.0	41.0	273.0
6	Gorkys Hernández	456	222	57	399.0	165.5	233.5
7	Drew Butera	302	79	49	253.0	30.0	223.0
8	Jeff McNeil	328	545	567	239.0	22.1	216.9
9	Luis Rengifo	100	310	406	306.0	95.6	210.4
10	Ryan McMahon	311	513	539	228.0	26.2	201.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Luis Rengifo	20	310	406	386.3	95.6	290.6
2	Nicky Lopez	1	284	402	401.0	118.0	283.0
3	Josh Naylor	1	287	279	278.0	8.0	270.0
4	Tommy Edman	1	270	349	348.0	78.5	269.5
5	Cavan Biggio	1	266	430	429.0	164.5	264.5
6	Keston Hiura	20	277	348	327.9	70.9	256.9
7	Josh VanMeter	1	258	260	259.0	2.5	256.5
8	Harold Ramírez	1	256	446	445.0	190.0	255.0
9	Dawel Lugo	13	314	288	275.2	26.4	248.8
10	Óscar Mercado	47	295	482	435.1	186.6	248.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Dawel Lugo	616	314	288	328.0	26.4	301.6
2	Bo Bichette	594	298	212	382.0	85.5	296.5
3	Myles Straw	587	297	128	459.0	168.9	290.1
4	Ty France	586	296	201	385.0	95.4	289.6
5	Erick Mejia	577	289	27	550.0	262.0	288.0
6	Dominic Smith	587	300	197	390.0	103.1	286.9
7	Josh Naylor	573	287	279	294.0	8.0	286.0
8	Frank Schwindel	552	276	15	537.0	261.5	275.5
9	Willi Castro	561	287	110	451.0	177.1	273.9
10	Cole Tucker	581	307	159	422.0	148.2	273.8

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Marcus Semien	0.3734	0.3077 (40.8)	0.3074 (47.0)	0.3101 (39.9)	0.3054 (41.7)
Tim Anderson	0.3631	0.2884 (32.9)	0.2934 (34.5)	0.2891 (33.2)	0.2877 (32.7)
Hunter Dozier	0.3610	0.2876 (36.5)	0.2927 (38.2)	0.2903 (35.6)	0.2849 (37.4)
Ketel Marte	0.4056	0.3275 (42.1)	0.3072 (59.9)	0.3301 (41.2)	0.3249 (43.0)
Joey Votto	0.3327	0.3787 (34.7)	0.3886 (35.8)	0.3742 (31.3)	0.3832 (38.2)
Pete Alonso	0.3868	0.3277 (33.2)	0.3254 (40.4)	0.3277 (34.0)	0.3277 (32.4)
Alex Bregman	0.4192	0.3634 (30.8)	0.3591 (39.4)	0.3643 (31.0)	0.3625 (30.7)
Gio Urshela	0.3697	0.2756 (39.5)	0.2824 (40.1)	0.2820 (37.0)	0.2692 (42.0)
Yordan Alvarez	0.4349	0.3112 (41.5)	0.3254 (39.3)	0.3042 (44.5)	0.3181 (38.6)
Austin Meadows	0.3828	0.3125 (35.0)	0.3196 (35.5)	0.3154 (34.0)	0.3097 (36.0)
Christian Yelich	0.4485	0.3775 (34.7)	0.3685 (44.6)	0.3772 (35.6)	0.3777 (33.9)
Yoán Moncada	0.3799	0.3100 (32.8)	0.3099 (37.3)	0.3094 (33.8)	0.3106 (31.8)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Bryan Reynolds	0.2880	0.3710	39.3
2	Khris Davis	0.3461	0.2912	35.2
3	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.2935	0.3992	35.2
4	DJ LeMahieu	0.3100	0.3742	34.8
5	Cody Bellinger	0.3597	0.4230	34.5
6	Mitch Garver	0.3004	0.4044	33.4
7	Mark Canha	0.3110	0.3862	31.9
8	Jeff McNeil	0.3187	0.3855	31.6

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Cody Bellinger	0.3516	0.4230	45.2
2	Rafael Devers	0.3162	0.3795	42.3
3	Jorge Soler	0.3180	0.3781	38.7
4	J.D. Davis	0.2891	0.3748	37.4
5	Mark Canha	0.3085	0.3862	37.1
6	Trey Mancini	0.3205	0.3742	34.4
7	Danny Santana	0.2825	0.3522	34.0
8	Xander Bogaerts	0.3397	0.3904	33.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Cody Bellinger	0.3496	0.4230	41.9
2	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.2905	0.3992	36.7
3	DJ LeMahieu	0.3094	0.3742	35.9
4	Bryan Reynolds	0.2984	0.3710	34.2
5	Khris Davis	0.3439	0.2912	33.4
6	Mark Canha	0.3091	0.3862	33.4
7	Jeff McNeil	0.3178	0.3855	32.8
8	Mitch Garver	0.3085	0.4044	30.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Bryan Reynolds	0.2776	0.3710	44.3
2	Khris Davis	0.3484	0.2912	37.0
3	Mitch Garver	0.2923	0.4044	35.9
4	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.2964	0.3992	33.7
5	DJ LeMahieu	0.3106	0.3742	33.7
6	Anthony Rendon	0.3550	0.4161	31.6
7	José Ramírez	0.3813	0.3364	31.0
8	Jeff McNeil	0.3195	0.3855	30.5

Most Unique Misses for wOBA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Rafael Devers	0.3162	0.3353	0.3795	42.3	23.3	19.0
2	Ketel Marte	0.3072	0.3275	0.4056	59.9	42.1	17.8
3	Max Kepler	0.3114	0.3273	0.3550	24.1	9.9	14.2
4	Juan Soto	0.3645	0.3906	0.3954	18.3	4.2	14.1
5	Richie Martin Jr.	0.3254	0.2724	0.2474	25.0	11.1	13.9
6	Carson Kelly	0.2723	0.3000	0.3490	26.9	13.8	13.0
7	Kyle Schwarber	0.3342	0.3474	0.3597	13.6	0.7	12.9
8	Jorge Soler	0.3180	0.3282	0.3781	38.7	26.3	12.3
9	Luis Rengifo	0.3254	0.2876	0.2976	12.5	0.4	12.1
10	Bubba Starling	0.3254	0.2566	0.2458	16.3	4.3	12.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Eduardo Escobar	0.3115	0.3221	0.3426	14.8	6.5	8.3
2	Cody Bellinger	0.3496	0.3597	0.4230	41.9	34.5	7.5
3	Max Muncy	0.3305	0.3417	0.3730	19.2	11.9	7.3
4	Mike Tauchman	0.2883	0.3097	0.3636	19.3	12.7	6.7
5	Charlie Blackmon	0.3511	0.3602	0.3877	16.9	10.3	6.5
6	Tom Murphy	0.2564	0.2763	0.3547	24.8	18.9	5.9
7	Wilfredo Tovar	0.3254	0.2595	0.2171	10.4	4.7	5.7
8	Christian Walker	0.3033	0.3114	0.3489	21.5	15.9	5.6
9	Gleyber Torres	0.3251	0.3330	0.3595	14.8	9.3	5.5
10	Josh Donaldson	0.3566	0.3628	0.3783	7.8	2.9	4.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	J.T. Realmuto	0.3494	0.3389	0.3403	12.6	5.7	6.9
2	Juan Soto	0.3998	0.3906	0.3954	11.0	4.2	6.8
3	Roberto Pérez	0.2571	0.2709	0.3213	23.3	17.7	5.7
4	David Fletcher	0.2739	0.2836	0.3183	21.0	15.4	5.5
5	Albert Pujols	0.2812	0.2925	0.3091	8.5	3.0	5.5
6	Bryan Reynolds	0.2776	0.2880	0.3710	44.3	39.3	5.1
7	Carlos Santana	0.3344	0.3421	0.3851	26.4	21.8	4.5
8	Harold Ramírez	0.2647	0.2759	0.3085	14.1	9.6	4.5
9	Wil Myers	0.3319	0.3241	0.3156	14.0	9.6	4.4
10	Jorge Polanco	0.3033	0.3106	0.3524	26.0	21.6	4.4

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Rougned Odor	0.3064	0.2292 (39.4)	0.2330 (36.7)	0.2250 (39.6)	0.2334 (39.2)
Marcus Semien	0.1365	0.2013 (55.3)	0.2068 (60.1)	0.1966 (54.8)	0.2059 (55.9)
César Hernández	0.1499	0.2037 (42.1)	0.2026 (41.9)	0.2038 (44.7)	0.2037 (39.5)
Chris Owings	0.3980	0.2214 (32.8)	0.2203 (32.8)	0.2118 (33.9)	0.2311 (31.6)
Cody Bellinger	0.1634	0.2348 (53.4)	0.2449 (60.6)	0.2309 (53.4)	0.2388 (53.4)
Matt Adams	0.3453	0.2352 (33.6)	0.2283 (35.6)	0.2369 (31.7)	0.2335 (35.4)
Rafael Devers	0.1695	0.2305 (49.4)	0.2366 (54.3)	0.2245 (47.9)	0.2364 (50.8)
Alex Gordon	0.1580	0.2400 (57.8)	0.2367 (56.3)	0.2419 (61.5)	0.2381 (54.1)
Tommy Pham	0.1881	0.2700 (59.7)	0.2449 (43.8)	0.2627 (57.5)	0.2774 (61.9)
Eddie Rosario	0.1458	0.1903 (31.8)	0.1953 (35.3)	0.1863 (31.7)	0.1944 (31.9)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Matt Chapman	0.2727	0.2194	42.0
2	Andrew Benintendi	0.1599	0.2276	35.9
3	Eloy Jiménez	0.1913	0.2659	32.9
4	J.D. Martinez	0.2500	0.2100	32.4
5	Wilson Ramos	0.1821	0.1317	31.3
6	Trey Mancini	0.2471	0.2106	31.1
7	Garrett Hampson	0.1660	0.2691	30.7
8	Paul DeJong	0.2609	0.2244	30.4
9	Hunter Dozier	0.2945	0.2526	30.1
10	Wil Myers	0.2726	0.3429	29.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Hanser Alberto	0.2156	0.0909	74.2
2	Kevin Newman	0.2213	0.1168	60.9
3	Luis Arraez	0.2237	0.0792	56.6
4	David Fletcher	0.1575	0.0980	45.5
5	Nicky Lopez	0.2237	0.1269	43.0
6	Austin Riley	0.2237	0.3636	38.5
7	Michael Chavis	0.2237	0.3325	37.6
8	Wil Myers	0.2569	0.3429	37.1
9	Brandon Lowe	0.2313	0.3456	34.0
10	Alex Bregman	0.1556	0.1203	31.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Andrew Benintendi	0.1545	0.2276	36.9
2	Eloy Jiménez	0.1797	0.2659	36.8
3	Matt Chapman	0.2578	0.2194	34.6
4	Brandon Lowe	0.2311	0.3456	33.1
5	J.D. Martinez	0.2466	0.2100	32.7
6	Wilson Ramos	0.1802	0.1317	32.4
7	Hunter Dozier	0.2944	0.2526	32.3
8	Dylan Moore	0.2023	0.3298	32.2
9	Garrett Hampson	0.1600	0.2691	31.4
10	Wil Myers	0.2670	0.3429	30.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Matt Chapman	0.2876	0.2194	49.4
2	Paul DeJong	0.2736	0.2244	36.2
3	Andrew Benintendi	0.1654	0.2276	34.9
4	Kyle Schwarber	0.3055	0.2557	33.7
5	Trey Mancini	0.2524	0.2106	32.0
6	J.D. Martinez	0.2534	0.2100	32.0
7	Brandon Belt	0.2521	0.2062	31.6
8	Justin Smoak	0.2697	0.2120	31.6
9	Jorge Soler	0.3031	0.2622	31.5
10	Randal Grichuk	0.3037	0.2596	31.1

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Hanser Alberto	0.2156	0.1090	0.0909	74.2	15.1	59.1
2	Kevin Newman	0.2213	0.1320	0.1168	60.9	13.0	47.9
3	Nicky Lopez	0.2237	0.1091	0.1269	43.0	3.4	39.6
4	Luis Arraez	0.2237	0.1211	0.0792	56.6	18.8	37.9
5	David Fletcher	0.1575	0.1170	0.0980	45.5	18.5	27.0
6	Alex Verdugo	0.2008	0.1391	0.1300	30.5	7.0	23.6
7	Ildemaro Vargas	0.2160	0.0999	0.1137	23.7	1.0	22.8
8	Willians Astudillo	0.1640	0.0570	0.0392	27.5	5.5	22.0
9	Michael Chavis	0.2237	0.2788	0.3325	37.6	16.9	20.7
10	Austin Riley	0.2237	0.2938	0.3636	38.5	18.0	20.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Ryan McMahon	0.2468	0.2654	0.2968	19.8	11.9	7.9
2	Starlin Castro	0.1941	0.1872	0.1642	29.2	21.9	7.3
3	Stevie Wilkerson	0.2460	0.2699	0.2992	14.4	7.2	7.2
4	Michael Brantley	0.1194	0.1120	0.1036	18.5	11.3	7.2
5	Travis Demeritte	0.2795	0.3213	0.3387	8.6	1.5	7.1
6	Eduardo Escobar	0.2036	0.1975	0.1860	21.6	14.6	7.0
7	Nick Senzel	0.2104	0.2309	0.2440	8.4	1.5	6.9
8	Hanser Alberto	0.1174	0.1090	0.0909	21.9	15.1	6.8
9	David Dahl	0.2373	0.2564	0.2663	6.5	0.2	6.3
10	Brandon Dixon	0.2887	0.3075	0.3238	9.2	2.9	6.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Cavan Biggio	0.3377	0.3076	0.2860	24.6	13.3	11.3
2	Domingo Santana	0.3703	0.3470	0.3235	26.5	16.6	9.8
3	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.3354	0.3079	0.2957	16.8	8.0	8.8
4	Bryan Reynolds	0.2471	0.2281	0.2216	16.9	8.6	8.2
5	Matt Chapman	0.2876	0.2727	0.2194	49.4	42.0	7.4
6	Matt Olson	0.2769	0.2595	0.2523	16.4	9.1	7.3
7	Christin Stewart	0.2663	0.2465	0.2476	10.0	3.4	6.6
8	Trevor Story	0.2975	0.2840	0.2652	24.7	18.4	6.3
9	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.2687	0.2560	0.2629	8.0	1.7	6.3
10	Yoán Moncada	0.3255	0.3103	0.2755	31.0	24.7	6.3

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Marcus Semien	0.1165	0.0864 (20.4)	0.0881 (21.1)	0.0885 (19.4)	0.0842 (21.5)
Mark Canha	0.1348	0.0755 (28.1)	0.0733 (30.5)	0.0766 (27.9)	0.0744 (28.3)
Cavan Biggio	0.1651	0.1142 (20.7)	0.0868 (33.6)	0.1114 (22.2)	0.1170 (19.2)
César Hernández	0.0675	0.1211 (37.6)	0.1144 (31.4)	0.1213 (37.3)	0.1210 (38.0)
Marcell Ozuna	0.1129	0.0728 (20.5)	0.0756 (20.4)	0.0768 (18.7)	0.0689 (22.3)
Joey Votto	0.1250	0.1734 (31.1)	0.1632 (23.3)	0.1702 (28.7)	0.1766 (33.4)
Luke Voit	0.1392	0.0928 (22.3)	0.0847 (27.7)	0.0883 (24.9)	0.0973 (19.6)
Rhys Hoskins	0.1645	0.1256 (25.5)	0.1283 (25.4)	0.1274 (24.7)	0.1238 (26.3)
Christian Walker	0.1111	0.0711 (22.5)	0.0786 (19.5)	0.0703 (23.4)	0.0719 (21.6)
Alex Bregman	0.1725	0.1152 (37.6)	0.1079 (44.4)	0.1156 (37.8)	0.1148 (37.5)
Yordan Alvarez	0.1409	0.0817 (20.8)	0.0868 (19.9)	0.0811 (21.3)	0.0824 (20.4)
Eric Hosmer	0.0600	0.0970 (26.6)	0.0911 (20.8)	0.0990 (27.4)	0.0951 (25.7)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Bryce Harper	0.1799	0.1452	25.6
2	Yoán Moncada	0.1105	0.0716	23.3
3	David Fletcher	0.0468	0.0842	22.6
4	Paul Goldschmidt	0.1418	0.1144	20.6
5	Yasmani Grandal	0.1393	0.1725	19.2
6	Cody Bellinger	0.1143	0.1437	17.6
7	Yan Gomes	0.0546	0.1061	17.5
8	Miguel Cabrera	0.1163	0.0874	17.3

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Daniel Vogelbach	0.0973	0.1649	37.6
2	Yasmani Grandal	0.1151	0.1725	36.2
3	Mookie Betts	0.1026	0.1374	24.5
4	Hanser Alberto	0.0734	0.0291	24.4
5	Cody Bellinger	0.1071	0.1437	24.1
6	Harold Castro	0.0813	0.0244	21.1
7	Harold Ramírez	0.0868	0.0404	20.8
8	Carson Kelly	0.0769	0.1315	19.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Yoán Moncada	0.1115	0.0716	23.5
2	Bryce Harper	0.1757	0.1452	22.2
3	Yasmani Grandal	0.1355	0.1725	22.1
4	David Fletcher	0.0487	0.0842	21.9
5	Cody Bellinger	0.1117	0.1437	19.8
6	Paul Goldschmidt	0.1410	0.1144	19.6
7	Daniel Vogelbach	0.1286	0.1649	19.1
8	Kyle Schwarber	0.1422	0.1148	18.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Bryce Harper	0.1842	0.1452	29.0
2	David Fletcher	0.0450	0.0842	23.4
3	Yoán Moncada	0.1095	0.0716	23.1
4	Paul Goldschmidt	0.1426	0.1144	21.6
5	Yan Gomes	0.0512	0.1061	18.5
6	Miguel Cabrera	0.1166	0.0874	17.9
7	Harrison Bader	0.0669	0.1133	17.4
8	Yasiel Puig	0.0963	0.0720	16.9

Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Hanser Alberto	0.0734	0.0258	0.0291	24.4	0.3	24.1
2	Daniel Vogelbach	0.0973	0.1332	0.1649	37.6	16.1	21.5
3	Harold Castro	0.0813	0.0265	0.0244	21.1	1.8	19.3
4	Yasmani Grandal	0.1151	0.1393	0.1725	36.2	19.2	17.0
5	Harold Ramírez	0.0868	0.0482	0.0404	20.8	4.7	16.1
6	Cavan Biggio	0.0868	0.1142	0.1651	33.6	20.7	12.9
7	Dawel Lugo	0.0778	0.0321	0.0278	14.5	2.0	12.4
8	Manny Machado	0.0824	0.0949	0.0983	10.4	0.5	10.0
9	Carlos Santana	0.1386	0.1503	0.1574	12.8	3.0	9.8
10	Eloy Jiménez	0.0868	0.0649	0.0595	13.8	4.1	9.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Kris Bryant	0.1262	0.1173	0.1167	7.3	2.1	5.2
2	Juan Soto	0.1401	0.1445	0.1639	14.3	11.0	3.4
3	Corey Seager	0.0980	0.0914	0.0813	10.2	6.9	3.2
4	Max Muncy	0.1310	0.1357	0.1528	11.6	8.5	3.2
5	Daniel Vogelbach	0.1286	0.1332	0.1649	19.1	16.1	3.0
6	Yasmani Grandal	0.1355	0.1393	0.1725	22.1	19.2	2.9
7	Joey Gallo	0.1324	0.1409	0.1751	12.1	9.3	2.7
8	Luke Voit	0.0883	0.0928	0.1392	24.9	22.3	2.6
9	Wilfredo Tovar	0.0868	0.0515	0.0568	2.8	0.2	2.6
10	Cody Bellinger	0.1117	0.1143	0.1437	19.8	17.6	2.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Bryce Harper	0.1842	0.1799	0.1452	29.0	25.6	3.4
2	Adam Eaton	0.0877	0.0934	0.0991	5.2	1.9	3.3
3	Franmil Reyes	0.0957	0.0918	0.0858	7.3	4.8	2.5
4	Joey Votto	0.1766	0.1734	0.1250	33.4	31.1	2.3
5	Eric Thames	0.1218	0.1174	0.1111	6.5	4.2	2.3
6	Domingo Santana	0.1188	0.1153	0.0986	12.0	9.8	2.1
7	Albert Pujols	0.0535	0.0580	0.0789	12.0	9.9	2.1
8	Jorge Polanco	0.0699	0.0734	0.0852	8.4	6.4	2.1
9	Isan Díaz	0.1089	0.0997	0.0945	3.6	1.6	2.0
10	Hanser Alberto	0.0215	0.0258	0.0291	2.3	0.3	2.0

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
César Puello	0.0748	0.0258 (7.1)	0.0098 (9.5)	0.0210 (7.8)	0.0306 (6.3)
Jake Cave	0.0351	0.0083 (5.9)	0.0084 (5.9)	0.0090 (5.7)	0.0075 (6.0)
David Fletcher	0.0000	0.0090 (6.5)	0.0110 (7.7)	0.0090 (6.5)	0.0090 (6.6)
Mark Canha	0.0362	0.0206 (7.2)	0.0213 (7.1)	0.0180 (8.6)	0.0233 (5.9)
Derek Dietrich	0.0817	0.0385 (12.9)	0.0365 (13.6)	0.0340 (14.3)	0.0431 (11.5)
Tim Locastro	0.0880	0.0380 (12.2)	0.0143 (18.2)	0.0290 (14.5)	0.0470 (10.0)
Christian Vázquez	0.0000	0.0103 (5.9)	0.0108 (6.0)	0.0110 (6.2)	0.0096 (5.6)
Javier Báez	0.0000	0.0102 (6.3)	0.0086 (5.2)	0.0100 (6.1)	0.0103 (6.4)
Pete Alonso	0.0303	0.0180 (7.8)	0.0109 (13.0)	0.0150 (10.0)	0.0210 (5.7)
Shin-Soo Choo	0.0273	0.0153 (7.3)	0.0137 (8.5)	0.0140 (8.2)	0.0165 (6.4)
Jeff McNeil	0.0370	0.0148 (12.1)	0.0152 (11.9)	0.0130 (13.1)	0.0165 (11.0)
Anthony Rizzo	0.0440	0.0292 (8.5)	0.0267 (10.2)	0.0260 (10.5)	0.0324 (6.4)
Victor Robles	0.0405	0.0222 (10.7)	0.0163 (14.5)	0.0190 (12.7)	0.0255 (8.6)
Mike Trout	0.0267	0.0155 (6.1)	0.0143 (7.0)	0.0150 (6.5)	0.0159 (5.8)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Alex Gordon	0.0194	0.0300	6.1
2	Matt Olson	0.0099	0.0219	6.0
3	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0101	0.0029	5.6
4	Xander Bogaerts	0.0096	0.0029	5.4
5	Luis Urías	0.0142	0.0361	5.2
6	Danny Jansen	0.0227	0.0104	5.1

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Alex Gordon	0.0189	0.0300	6.6
2	Ramón Laureano	0.0102	0.0229	5.8
3	Jesse Winker	0.0052	0.0208	5.7
4	Dylan Moore	0.0109	0.0319	5.7
5	Luis Urías	0.0127	0.0361	5.7
6	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0099	0.0029	5.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Alex Gordon	0.0170	0.0300	7.7
2	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0110	0.0029	6.1
3	Matt Olson	0.0100	0.0219	6.0
4	Xander Bogaerts	0.0100	0.0029	5.6
5	Luis Urías	0.0130	0.0361	5.5
6	Dylan Moore	0.0120	0.0319	5.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Danny Jansen	0.0274	0.0104	7.0
2	Matt Olson	0.0098	0.0219	6.0
3	Rougned Odor	0.0166	0.0086	5.3
4	J.T. Realmuto	0.0161	0.0084	5.2
5	Xander Bogaerts	0.0092	0.0029	5.2
6	Tyler Flowers	0.0350	0.0194	5.2

Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Tim Locastro	0.0143	0.0380	0.0880	18.2	12.2	6.0
2	Pete Alonso	0.0109	0.0180	0.0303	13.0	7.8	5.1
3	Christian Walker	0.0175	0.0100	0.0100	5.0	0.6	4.3
4	Ty France	0.0109	0.0308	0.0348	4.7	0.6	4.1
5	Victor Robles	0.0163	0.0222	0.0405	14.5	10.7	3.9
6	Daniel Vogelbach	0.0117	0.0049	0.0036	4.9	1.3	3.6
7	J.P. Crawford	0.0175	0.0101	0.0051	5.2	2.4	2.8
8	Garrett Hampson	0.0131	0.0048	0.0000	4.5	1.9	2.6
9	Eric Sogard	0.0141	0.0084	0.0045	4.6	2.2	2.4
10	César Puello	0.0098	0.0258	0.0748	9.5	7.1	2.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Tim Locastro	0.0290	0.0380	0.0880	14.5	12.2	2.3
2	Pete Alonso	0.0150	0.0180	0.0303	10.0	7.8	2.2
3	Victor Robles	0.0190	0.0222	0.0405	12.7	10.7	2.1
4	Anthony Rizzo	0.0260	0.0292	0.0440	10.5	8.5	2.0
5	Alex Gordon	0.0170	0.0194	0.0300	7.7	6.1	1.6
6	Brian Anderson	0.0160	0.0187	0.0269	5.2	3.8	1.4
7	Nick Ahmed	0.0090	0.0066	0.0064	2.2	0.7	1.4
8	Derek Dietrich	0.0340	0.0385	0.0817	14.3	12.9	1.4
9	Ty France	0.0240	0.0308	0.0348	2.0	0.6	1.4
10	Mark Canha	0.0180	0.0206	0.0362	8.6	7.2	1.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Robinson Chirinos	0.0353	0.0311	0.0297	2.9	1.1	1.9
2	Danny Jansen	0.0274	0.0227	0.0104	7.0	5.1	1.9
3	Jorge Alfaro	0.0264	0.0227	0.0215	2.8	1.0	1.8
4	Kolten Wong	0.0300	0.0270	0.0237	4.1	2.4	1.7
5	Justin Turner	0.0275	0.0247	0.0255	1.7	0.1	1.6
6	Juan Soto	0.0000	0.0025	0.0046	2.3	0.7	1.6
7	Nelson Cruz	0.0222	0.0196	0.0134	5.2	3.7	1.4
8	Rafael Devers	0.0000	0.0020	0.0057	3.2	1.9	1.3
9	Wilson Ramos	0.0000	0.0025	0.0076	3.4	2.2	1.2
10	Jurickson Profar	0.0182	0.0161	0.0154	2.0	0.9	1.2

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
George Springer	0.1054	0.0597 (19.2)	0.0593 (21.4)	0.0620 (17.9)	0.0574 (20.6)
Mitch Garver	0.1372	0.0346 (32.8)	0.0352 (33.9)	0.0384 (31.4)	0.0308 (34.3)
Josh Bell	0.0889	0.0424 (21.7)	0.0436 (23.1)	0.0447 (20.2)	0.0402 (23.2)
Ketel Marte	0.0660	0.0252 (18.6)	0.0254 (20.7)	0.0262 (17.9)	0.0242 (19.4)
Pete Alonso	0.1271	0.0745 (28.7)	0.0562 (43.8)	0.0763 (27.4)	0.0727 (30.1)
Khris Davis	0.0682	0.1048 (25.4)	0.1038 (23.0)	0.1021 (24.1)	0.1074 (26.7)
Yordan Alvarez	0.1222	0.0591 (19.2)	0.0562 (21.5)	0.0556 (20.4)	0.0625 (18.0)
Jorge Soler	0.1148	0.0649 (26.3)	0.0553 (35.2)	0.0654 (25.9)	0.0644 (26.8)
Eugenio Suárez	0.1250	0.0720 (27.7)	0.0678 (32.8)	0.0690 (29.6)	0.0750 (25.8)
Christian Yelich	0.1176	0.0619 (25.9)	0.0564 (31.1)	0.0618 (25.9)	0.0619 (25.9)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Miguel Sanó	0.0982	0.1532	19.3
2	Rhys Hoskins	0.0871	0.0716	18.8
3	Danny Santana	0.0376	0.0851	18.6
4	Miguel Cabrera	0.0533	0.0308	18.5
5	Yolmer Sánchez	0.0261	0.0051	17.8
6	Roberto Pérez	0.0376	0.0879	17.6
7	Keston Hiura	0.0302	0.0913	17.4
8	Brett Gardner	0.0314	0.0725	16.5
9	Christin Stewart	0.0651	0.0368	16.4
10	Kole Calhoun	0.0470	0.0840	16.3

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Miguel Sanó	0.0848	0.1532	26.6
2	Danny Santana	0.0307	0.0851	23.9
3	Nicky Lopez	0.0562	0.0060	23.3
4	Daniel Vogelbach	0.0476	0.0952	22.3
5	Kole Calhoun	0.0436	0.0840	20.7
6	Mike Trout	0.0875	0.1271	19.2
7	Alex Bregman	0.0504	0.0856	19.0
8	Roberto Pérez	0.0390	0.0879	18.5
9	Luis Arraez	0.0562	0.0133	18.5
10	Aristides Aquino	0.0426	0.1293	17.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Miguel Sanó	0.0913	0.1532	22.2
2	Miguel Cabrera	0.0577	0.0308	21.0
3	Danny Santana	0.0332	0.0851	20.8
4	Rhys Hoskins	0.0883	0.0716	19.7
5	Keston Hiura	0.0279	0.0913	18.2
6	Yolmer Sánchez	0.0266	0.0051	18.2
7	Austin Meadows	0.0423	0.0827	17.2
8	Christin Stewart	0.0653	0.0368	16.6
9	Mike Yastrzemski	0.0273	0.0784	16.4
10	Brett Gardner	0.0324	0.0725	15.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Roberto Pérez	0.0320	0.0879	20.2
2	Tommy Pham	0.0637	0.0472	18.0
3	Randal Grichuk	0.0903	0.0729	17.8
4	Rhys Hoskins	0.0859	0.0716	17.8
5	Yolmer Sánchez	0.0255	0.0051	17.4
6	Brett Gardner	0.0303	0.0725	17.2
7	Kole Calhoun	0.0459	0.0840	17.1
8	Willson Contreras	0.0401	0.0923	16.9
9	Nelson Cruz	0.0822	0.1254	16.8
10	Keston Hiura	0.0326	0.0913	16.6

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Nicky Lopez	0.0562	0.0134	0.0060	23.3	7.4	15.8
2	Luis Arraez	0.0562	0.0107	0.0133	18.5	3.1	15.4
3	Pete Alonso	0.0562	0.0745	0.1271	43.8	28.7	15.1
4	Luis Rengifo	0.0562	0.0188	0.0261	15.3	1.5	13.8
5	Harold Ramírez	0.0562	0.0199	0.0331	13.7	0.9	12.8
6	Harold Castro	0.0414	0.0091	0.0182	11.4	0.7	10.6
7	Mike Trout	0.0875	0.1014	0.1271	19.2	8.7	10.5
8	Renato Núñez	0.0478	0.0618	0.0771	13.0	2.5	10.5
9	Richie Martin Jr.	0.0562	0.0155	0.0291	10.7	0.8	10.0
10	Jorge Soler	0.0553	0.0649	0.1148	35.2	26.3	8.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Joey Gallo	0.1256	0.1466	0.1705	10.0	3.8	6.2
2	Max Muncy	0.0687	0.0778	0.1023	13.2	7.9	5.3
3	José Abreu	0.0634	0.0577	0.0671	5.2	1.3	4.0
4	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.0655	0.0711	0.0928	11.4	7.5	3.9
5	Wilfredo Tovar	0.0562	0.0147	0.0000	5.9	2.3	3.7
6	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.0459	0.0548	0.0969	14.8	11.5	3.3
7	Albert Pujols	0.0501	0.0443	0.0534	4.4	1.1	3.2
8	Gleyber Torres	0.0593	0.0644	0.0896	11.5	8.5	3.0
9	Miguel Sanó	0.0913	0.0982	0.1532	22.2	19.3	3.0
10	Anthony Rizzo	0.0652	0.0606	0.0629	8.3	5.4	2.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Domingo Santana	0.0870	0.0736	0.0722	13.1	6.4	6.7
2	Juan Soto	0.0837	0.0753	0.0817	8.5	3.1	5.4
3	David Dahl	0.0811	0.0686	0.0554	15.2	10.1	5.1
4	Eric Thames	0.0996	0.0911	0.0969	6.3	2.5	3.8
5	Trevor Story	0.0887	0.0836	0.0839	10.3	7.1	3.3
6	Carlos Santana	0.0482	0.0525	0.0728	9.4	6.3	3.1
7	J.T. Realmuto	0.0631	0.0578	0.0590	9.0	5.9	3.1
8	Rafael Devers	0.0689	0.0647	0.0603	13.7	10.9	2.8
9	Matt Chapman	0.0780	0.0736	0.0820	4.7	1.8	2.8
10	Marcell Ozuna	0.0515	0.0564	0.0780	8.5	5.7	2.8

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
James McCann	0.3579	0.2951 (29.8)	0.2871 (35.0)	0.2924 (30.8)	0.2978 (28.8)
Joey Gallo	0.3645	0.2740 (26.8)	0.2627 (31.0)	0.2747 (26.4)	0.2732 (27.2)
Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.4098	0.3018 (40.1)	0.2982 (42.5)	0.3000 (40.5)	0.3038 (39.5)
Keston Hiura	0.4021	0.3153 (30.1)	0.2982 (37.1)	0.3079 (32.5)	0.3230 (27.6)
Derek Dietrich	0.1750	0.3091 (41.1)	0.3193 (43.3)	0.3033 (39.5)	0.3151 (42.8)
Tim Anderson	0.3995	0.3124 (45.0)	0.3125 (46.5)	0.3093 (46.3)	0.3155 (43.6)
Bryan Reynolds	0.3866	0.3053 (44.2)	0.2982 (49.8)	0.3203 (35.7)	0.2893 (53.3)
Justin Smoak	0.2230	0.2812 (29.2)	0.2901 (32.2)	0.2820 (29.9)	0.2803 (28.5)
Marcell Ozuna	0.2566	0.3171 (33.4)	0.3174 (31.9)	0.3175 (33.9)	0.3167 (32.9)
Paul DeJong	0.2585	0.3021 (29.1)	0.3107 (32.8)	0.2990 (27.4)	0.3054 (30.9)
Gio Urshela	0.3491	0.2759 (34.7)	0.2791 (34.7)	0.2755 (34.7)	0.2763 (34.8)
Yoán Moncada	0.4048	0.3203 (47.0)	0.3280 (44.5)	0.3146 (49.9)	0.3264 (44.0)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Daniel Vogelbach	0.2881	0.2316	31.7
2	Jurickson Profar	0.2751	0.2180	29.7
3	DJ LeMahieu	0.3031	0.3483	29.4
4	Harold Castro	0.2885	0.3643	27.9
5	J.D. Davis	0.2956	0.3549	26.8
6	Nelson Cruz	0.2990	0.3497	26.3
7	Donovan Solano	0.2944	0.4085	26.0
8	Orlando Arcia	0.2985	0.2513	25.9

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	J.D. Davis	0.2733	0.3549	38.3
2	Danny Santana	0.2848	0.3522	35.8
3	Ketel Marte	0.2924	0.3422	33.0
4	Rafael Devers	0.2971	0.3387	31.1
5	Nelson Cruz	0.2939	0.3497	30.5
6	Brandon Lowe	0.2881	0.3772	30.1
7	Victor Reyes	0.2857	0.3839	29.5
8	Matt Chapman	0.3166	0.2705	29.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	DJ LeMahieu	0.2986	0.3483	32.0
2	Daniel Vogelbach	0.2877	0.2316	31.8
3	Jurickson Profar	0.2771	0.2180	31.0
4	J.D. Davis	0.2921	0.3549	28.1
5	Harold Castro	0.2908	0.3643	26.8
6	Brandon Lowe	0.2985	0.3772	25.5
7	Orlando Arcia	0.2971	0.2513	25.4
8	David Dahl	0.3210	0.3828	25.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Nelson Cruz	0.2866	0.3497	33.0
2	Daniel Vogelbach	0.2885	0.2316	31.5
3	Harold Castro	0.2861	0.3643	29.0
4	Jurickson Profar	0.2732	0.2180	28.4
5	Jorge Soler	0.3333	0.2919	27.9
6	Austin Meadows	0.2844	0.3306	27.5
7	Donovan Solano	0.2908	0.4085	26.9
8	DJ LeMahieu	0.3075	0.3483	26.9

Most Unique Misses for BABIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Brandon Dixon	0.2771	0.3092	0.3361	25.9	11.2	14.7
2	Raimel Tapia	0.3125	0.3393	0.3407	13.9	0.5	13.3
3	Danny Santana	0.2848	0.3067	0.3522	35.8	23.1	12.8
4	Matt Chapman	0.3166	0.2955	0.2705	29.0	17.0	12.1
5	Tyler Naquin	0.2982	0.3354	0.3416	13.6	1.7	11.8
6	Ketel Marte	0.2924	0.3078	0.3422	33.0	21.4	11.6
7	J.D. Davis	0.2733	0.2956	0.3549	38.3	26.8	11.5
8	Renato Núñez	0.3014	0.2794	0.2722	15.8	4.4	11.4
9	Christian Walker	0.2878	0.3027	0.3121	16.4	5.6	10.8
10	Willy Adames	0.3392	0.3178	0.3177	10.9	0.2	10.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Bryce Harper	0.2900	0.3016	0.3132	15.3	7.7	7.5
2	Cody Bellinger	0.2906	0.3000	0.3015	6.6	0.8	5.8
3	Mike Tauchman	0.2871	0.3063	0.3333	13.5	7.9	5.5
4	Tom Murphy	0.2780	0.2966	0.3397	17.1	12.1	5.1
5	Victor Robles	0.3158	0.3082	0.3050	7.1	2.2	5.0
6	Óscar Mercado	0.2810	0.2917	0.2943	6.0	1.1	4.9
7	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.3172	0.3078	0.3083	5.0	0.1	4.8
8	Avisaíl García	0.3074	0.3161	0.3401	16.9	12.6	4.3
9	Martín Maldonado	0.2814	0.2704	0.2479	12.8	8.5	4.3
10	Charlie Blackmon	0.3189	0.3261	0.3341	9.1	4.9	4.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Bryan Reynolds	0.2893	0.3053	0.3866	53.3	44.2	9.1
2	Joey Votto	0.3324	0.3192	0.3128	11.7	4.1	7.6
3	Jorge Soler	0.3333	0.3222	0.2919	27.9	20.8	7.1
4	Nelson Cruz	0.2866	0.2990	0.3497	33.0	26.3	6.8
5	David Fletcher	0.2785	0.2878	0.3163	24.9	18.5	6.4
6	Roberto Pérez	0.2562	0.2698	0.2771	9.5	3.2	6.4
7	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.2983	0.3078	0.3083	5.3	0.1	5.2
8	Rhys Hoskins	0.2845	0.2766	0.2660	12.8	7.7	5.2
9	Franmil Reyes	0.3135	0.3044	0.2792	18.6	14.0	4.6
10	Freddie Freeman	0.3424	0.3352	0.3180	16.7	12.1	4.6

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Rougned Odor	0.1456	0.2059 (33.4)	0.2028 (31.0)	0.2047 (32.5)	0.2072 (34.4)
Garrett Cooper	0.2907	0.2240 (29.3)	0.2329 (26.0)	0.2248 (29.1)	0.2231 (29.5)
Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.3171	0.2196 (37.3)	0.2182 (38.3)	0.2232 (36.1)	0.2154 (38.7)
Michael Chavis	0.2921	0.2124 (31.5)	0.2182 (29.7)	0.2168 (30.0)	0.2078 (33.1)
Derek Dietrich	0.1125	0.2197 (31.9)	0.2319 (35.3)	0.2208 (32.1)	0.2186 (31.7)
Tim Anderson	0.3137	0.2384 (40.5)	0.2344 (43.1)	0.2355 (42.2)	0.2413 (38.7)
Marcell Ozuna	0.1866	0.2485 (32.4)	0.2569 (36.4)	0.2481 (32.0)	0.2489 (32.9)
Carlos Santana	0.2217	0.1831 (28.4)	0.1825 (29.6)	0.1839 (28.2)	0.1823 (28.7)
Harold Castro	0.3123	0.2383 (28.3)	0.2302 (31.7)	0.2377 (28.7)	0.2389 (27.9)
Yoán Moncada	0.2887	0.2359 (31.1)	0.2293 (35.4)	0.2316 (33.7)	0.2404 (28.4)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Daniel Vogelbach	0.2250	0.1719	28.0
2	Jorge Alfaro	0.2500	0.3065	27.6
3	J.D. Davis	0.2206	0.2765	26.6
4	Jose Iglesias	0.2119	0.2582	26.0
5	Byron Buxton	0.2283	0.1378	25.9
6	Ian Desmond	0.2447	0.1889	25.5
7	Nolan Arenado	0.2050	0.2403	25.2
8	Corey Seager	0.2329	0.1835	25.2
9	Hanser Alberto	0.2249	0.2671	24.7
10	Yolmer Sánchez	0.2142	0.2558	24.7

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Hanser Alberto	0.2027	0.2671	37.6
2	Corey Seager	0.2546	0.1835	36.3
3	J.D. Davis	0.2035	0.2765	34.8
4	Danny Santana	0.1962	0.2558	32.5
5	Jose Iglesias	0.2016	0.2582	32.1
6	Bryan Reynolds	0.2182	0.2717	31.4
7	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.2394	0.2743	27.8
8	Kevin Newman	0.2235	0.2701	26.9
9	Roberto Pérez	0.1827	0.2369	26.1
10	Paul DeJong	0.2233	0.1805	25.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jorge Alfaro	0.2459	0.3065	29.7
2	Jose Iglesias	0.2099	0.2582	27.3
3	J.D. Davis	0.2200	0.2765	27.1
4	DJ LeMahieu	0.2396	0.2770	26.6
5	Daniel Vogelbach	0.2225	0.1719	26.4
6	Ian Desmond	0.2464	0.1889	26.1
7	Josh Bell	0.2276	0.1821	26.0
8	Nolan Arenado	0.2046	0.2403	25.7
9	Jurickson Profar	0.1993	0.1471	25.3
10	Byron Buxton	0.2259	0.1378	25.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jorge Soler	0.2540	0.2000	35.0
2	Bryan Reynolds	0.2107	0.2717	34.6
3	Daniel Vogelbach	0.2276	0.1719	29.7
4	Roberto Pérez	0.1736	0.2369	29.5
5	Mark Canha	0.1832	0.2401	29.5
6	Hanser Alberto	0.2201	0.2671	27.2
7	Byron Buxton	0.2308	0.1378	26.7
8	Danny Santana	0.2061	0.2558	26.6
9	Corey Seager	0.2347	0.1835	26.4
10	Kevin Newman	0.2232	0.2701	26.2

Most Unique Misses for Single Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Willy Adames	0.2819	0.2527	0.2459	18.8	2.4	16.4
2	Jake Bauers	0.1736	0.2050	0.2218	22.1	8.3	13.8
3	Hanser Alberto	0.2027	0.2249	0.2671	37.6	24.7	12.8
4	Mike Freeman	0.1894	0.2445	0.3033	25.1	13.1	12.0
5	Ryan McMahon	0.2251	0.2458	0.2450	12.8	1.1	11.7
6	Eloy Jiménez	0.2182	0.2393	0.2426	14.3	3.1	11.2
7	Raimel Tapia	0.2250	0.2489	0.2524	14.0	2.8	11.2
8	Corey Seager	0.2546	0.2329	0.1835	36.3	25.2	11.1
9	Ji Man Choi	0.1917	0.2126	0.2276	19.4	8.7	10.7
10	Pete Alonso	0.2182	0.2016	0.1923	15.2	4.5	10.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Victor Robles	0.2360	0.2248	0.2150	11.0	4.3	6.6
2	Leury García	0.2460	0.2539	0.2770	21.2	16.1	5.1
3	Yuli Gurriel	0.2206	0.2127	0.2004	10.4	5.8	4.6
4	Ryan O'Hearn	0.2088	0.1964	0.1659	14.7	10.3	4.4
5	Bryce Harper	0.2084	0.2146	0.2115	4.4	0.1	4.2
6	Avisaíl García	0.2397	0.2472	0.2622	13.7	9.5	4.2
7	Dwight Smith Jr.	0.2237	0.2128	0.2022	7.1	3.0	4.1
8	Max Kepler	0.1947	0.1875	0.1628	17.1	13.0	4.1
9	Omar Narváez	0.2293	0.2370	0.2681	20.3	16.4	3.9
10	Robinson Chirinos	0.1877	0.1960	0.2035	8.3	4.5	3.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jorge Soler	0.2540	0.2378	0.2000	35.0	23.7	11.3
2	Bryan Reynolds	0.2107	0.2305	0.2717	34.6	24.1	10.6
3	Joey Votto	0.2548	0.2435	0.2282	14.7	7.6	7.1
4	Roberto Pérez	0.1736	0.1884	0.2369	29.5	23.0	6.5
5	Eric Thames	0.1875	0.2002	0.2060	9.6	3.9	5.6
6	Austin Meadows	0.1957	0.2053	0.2322	23.0	17.6	5.4
7	Mark Canha	0.1832	0.1939	0.2401	29.5	24.4	5.2
8	Franmil Reyes	0.2445	0.2359	0.2175	13.5	8.5	5.0
9	Joey Gallo	0.1598	0.1768	0.2150	17.1	12.2	4.9
10	Bryce Harper	0.2209	0.2146	0.2115	4.7	0.1	4.6

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Byron Buxton	0.1531	0.0722 (22.7)	0.0652 (25.4)	0.0752 (21.8)	0.0692 (23.7)
Roberto Pérez	0.0361	0.0745 (19.0)	0.0711 (16.5)	0.0747 (19.1)	0.0744 (18.8)
Randal Grichuk	0.0736	0.1016 (20.0)	0.1000 (17.8)	0.0971 (17.3)	0.1062 (22.7)
Scott Kingery	0.1153	0.0671 (22.1)	0.0698 (21.8)	0.0663 (22.5)	0.0679 (21.9)
Ian Desmond	0.1010	0.0599 (17.9)	0.0570 (20.3)	0.0619 (16.9)	0.0580 (19.0)
Xander Bogaerts	0.1118	0.0818 (18.3)	0.0825 (19.2)	0.0816 (18.3)	0.0820 (18.3)
Khris Davis	0.0350	0.0752 (23.5)	0.0762 (23.0)	0.0763 (24.1)	0.0741 (22.7)
Yordan Alvarez	0.1340	0.0687 (22.7)	0.0733 (21.7)	0.0668 (23.3)	0.0706 (22.1)
Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.0549	0.0782 (19.4)	0.0810 (20.0)	0.0759 (17.9)	0.0806 (20.9)
Nick Castellanos	0.1295	0.0884 (24.7)	0.0885 (26.0)	0.0870 (25.5)	0.0898 (23.9)
Gio Urshela	0.1006	0.0509 (21.8)	0.0581 (19.3)	0.0558 (19.4)	0.0461 (24.2)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Eduardo Escobar	0.0856	0.0603	20.3
2	Bryan Reynolds	0.0638	0.1036	19.7
3	Joc Pederson	0.0847	0.0525	18.5
4	Jeff McNeil	0.0579	0.0920	17.2
5	Manny Machado	0.0709	0.0488	17.1
6	Stephen Vogt	0.0674	0.1311	16.8
7	Ronald Guzmán	0.0630	0.1227	16.5
8	Corey Seager	0.0831	0.1170	16.3
9	Pablo Sandoval	0.0587	0.1173	16.2

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Joc Pederson	0.0919	0.0525	21.2
2	Rafael Devers	0.0767	0.1082	20.8
3	Corey Seager	0.0787	0.1170	19.7
4	Trea Turner	0.0618	0.0946	17.6
5	James McCann	0.0528	0.0912	17.4
6	Manny Machado	0.0726	0.0488	16.9
7	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0850	0.0622	16.8
8	Pablo Sandoval	0.0588	0.1173	16.8
9	Rougned Odor	0.0648	0.0949	16.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Bryan Reynolds	0.0633	0.1036	19.8
2	Eduardo Escobar	0.0825	0.0603	18.4
3	Corey Seager	0.0808	0.1170	17.4
4	Joey Gallo	0.0776	0.1402	17.4
5	Stephen Vogt	0.0658	0.1311	17.2
6	Corey Dickerson	0.0791	0.1436	16.9
7	Ronald Guzmán	0.0621	0.1227	16.7
8	Javier Báez	0.0762	0.1092	16.3
9	Jeff McNeil	0.0599	0.0920	15.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Joc Pederson	0.0927	0.0525	22.5
2	Eduardo Escobar	0.0885	0.0603	22.3
3	Bryan Reynolds	0.0643	0.1036	19.5
4	Michael Chavis	0.0952	0.0495	18.8
5	Manny Machado	0.0735	0.0488	18.7
6	Jeff McNeil	0.0559	0.0920	18.4
7	James McCann	0.0515	0.0912	17.2
8	Mark Canha	0.0879	0.0573	17.0
9	Pablo Sandoval	0.0570	0.1173	16.8

Most Unique Misses for Double Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Dwight Smith Jr.	0.0943	0.0701	0.0599	14.2	5.5	8.7
2	Matt Chapman	0.1036	0.0899	0.0893	10.8	2.9	7.9
3	Hanser Alberto	0.0676	0.0529	0.0449	13.5	6.5	7.0
4	Harold Castro	0.0647	0.0448	0.0372	10.9	4.2	6.6
5	Rafael Devers	0.0767	0.0838	0.1082	20.8	14.4	6.4
6	Marcell Ozuna	0.0529	0.0621	0.0671	6.7	0.6	6.1
7	Jordan Luplow	0.0511	0.0719	0.1000	12.3	6.3	5.9
8	David Fletcher	0.0699	0.0589	0.0568	9.7	3.9	5.9
9	Richie Martin Jr.	0.0733	0.0527	0.0400	10.9	5.1	5.8
10	Rowdy Tellez	0.0943	0.0792	0.0805	6.4	1.0	5.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	J.T. Realmuto	0.0725	0.0793	0.0902	8.1	4.2	3.9
2	Eric Thames	0.0741	0.0824	0.0987	9.4	5.7	3.7
3	Bryce Harper	0.0791	0.0843	0.0989	10.8	7.4	3.4
4	Yasiel Puig	0.0772	0.0723	0.0746	4.0	0.9	3.1
5	David Fletcher	0.0630	0.0589	0.0568	6.6	3.9	2.8
6	Jarrod Dyson	0.0528	0.0469	0.0355	9.7	6.9	2.8
7	Rhys Hoskins	0.0747	0.0787	0.0878	6.4	3.7	2.7
8	Starlin Castro	0.0677	0.0639	0.0605	7.5	4.8	2.7
9	Cody Bellinger	0.0708	0.0751	0.0833	5.6	2.9	2.7
10	Miguel Cabrera	0.0780	0.0733	0.0556	14.5	11.8	2.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Christian Walker	0.0897	0.0820	0.0751	10.9	6.5	4.5
2	Tom Murphy	0.1070	0.0911	0.0769	9.4	5.0	4.4
3	Joc Pederson	0.0927	0.0847	0.0525	22.5	18.5	4.0
4	Michael Chavis	0.0952	0.0854	0.0495	18.8	15.2	3.7
5	Matt Olson	0.0890	0.0825	0.0839	4.8	1.3	3.4
6	Nelson Cruz	0.0567	0.0629	0.0909	15.9	12.6	3.3
7	Willy Adames	0.0491	0.0541	0.0691	9.6	6.5	3.1
8	Randal Grichuk	0.1062	0.1016	0.0736	22.7	20.0	2.8
9	Max Muncy	0.0747	0.0698	0.0717	3.9	1.2	2.7
10	César Hernández	0.0446	0.0484	0.0618	9.0	6.4	2.7

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Eduardo Escobar	0.0208	0.0113 (7.2)	0.0078 (9.6)	0.0095 (7.9)	0.0130 (6.5)
Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.0293	0.0135 (6.1)	0.0067 (8.7)	0.0119 (6.4)	0.0154 (5.7)
Marcus Semien	0.0134	0.0057 (6.3)	0.0050 (6.8)	0.0044 (6.6)	0.0069 (6.0)
Tommy Edman	0.0276	0.0105 (6.2)	0.0067 (7.5)	0.0085 (6.6)	0.0125 (5.8)
Hunter Dozier	0.0282	0.0079 (12.4)	0.0119 (10.0)	0.0096 (10.9)	0.0061 (13.9)
Phillip Ervin	0.0417	0.0096 (8.5)	0.0047 (9.8)	0.0084 (8.6)	0.0108 (8.4)
Adalberto Mondesi	0.0353	0.0172 (8.3)	0.0129 (10.2)	0.0153 (8.8)	0.0191 (7.9)
Whit Merrifield	0.0184	0.0073 (8.7)	0.0089 (7.5)	0.0066 (8.6)	0.0080 (8.8)
Greg Garcia	0.0176	0.0047 (5.1)	0.0046 (5.1)	0.0043 (4.9)	0.0051 (5.2)
Tyler Flowers	0.0191	0.0012 (5.8)	0.0000 (6.1)	0.0024 (5.2)	0.0000 (6.4)
Rhys Hoskins	0.0133	0.0041 (7.0)	0.0030 (7.7)	0.0027 (7.4)	0.0055 (6.6)
Jeff McNeil	0.0024	0.0152 (6.9)	0.0207 (9.9)	0.0133 (6.2)	0.0172 (7.5)
Austin Meadows	0.0191	0.0080 (7.0)	0.0097 (6.0)	0.0069 (7.2)	0.0092 (6.8)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ben Gamel	0.0177	0.0000	6.1
2	Shohei Ohtani	0.0061	0.0191	5.8
3	Max Kepler	0.0105	0.0000	5.8
4	Dexter Fowler	0.0128	0.0030	5.2
5	Ramón Laureano	0.0110	0.0000	5.0
6	Christian Walker	0.0118	0.0029	4.9
7	Kevin Newman	0.0059	0.0142	4.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Dexter Fowler	0.0156	0.0030	6.8
2	Juan Soto	0.0035	0.0131	6.8
3	Victor Robles	0.0183	0.0075	6.2
4	Niko Goodrum	0.0071	0.0182	5.5
5	Delino DeShields	0.0035	0.0152	5.1
6	Tim Anderson	0.0104	0.0000	5.0
7	Ben Gamel	0.0147	0.0000	5.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adam Eaton	0.0061	0.0153	6.0
2	Mallex Smith	0.0148	0.0246	5.5
3	Willy Adames	0.0116	0.0028	5.2
4	Shohei Ohtani	0.0071	0.0191	5.1
5	Max Kepler	0.0084	0.0000	5.0
6	Tommy Pham	0.0122	0.0047	4.9
7	Danny Santana	0.0103	0.0199	4.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ben Gamel	0.0219	0.0000	7.2
2	Max Kepler	0.0127	0.0000	6.6
3	Shohei Ohtani	0.0050	0.0191	6.6
4	Dexter Fowler	0.0152	0.0030	6.1
5	Ramón Laureano	0.0136	0.0000	5.8
6	Christian Walker	0.0133	0.0029	5.3
7	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.0139	0.0050	5.3

Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Juan Soto	0.0035	0.0082	0.0131	6.8	3.7	3.1
2	Jeff McNeil	0.0207	0.0152	0.0024	9.9	6.9	3.1
3	Victor Robles	0.0183	0.0135	0.0075	6.2	3.2	3.0
4	Daniel Vogelbach	0.0063	0.0010	0.0000	3.1	0.1	3.0
5	DJ LeMahieu	0.0097	0.0053	0.0041	3.2	0.3	2.9
6	Andrew Benintendi	0.0071	0.0114	0.0126	3.8	1.2	2.6
7	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.0067	0.0135	0.0293	8.7	6.1	2.5
8	Ketel Marte	0.0157	0.0196	0.0199	3.1	0.7	2.4
9	Eduardo Escobar	0.0078	0.0113	0.0208	9.6	7.2	2.4
10	Bryan Reynolds	0.0067	0.0110	0.0112	2.8	0.5	2.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Adam Eaton	0.0061	0.0114	0.0153	6.0	3.0	3.0
2	Mallex Smith	0.0148	0.0195	0.0246	5.5	3.3	2.2
3	Danny Santana	0.0103	0.0139	0.0199	4.9	3.5	1.4
4	Nick Ahmed	0.0088	0.0118	0.0137	3.0	1.7	1.4
5	Bryan Reynolds	0.0079	0.0110	0.0112	1.8	0.5	1.2
6	Tommy Pham	0.0122	0.0112	0.0047	4.9	3.8	1.2
7	Wilson Ramos	0.0025	0.0012	0.0000	1.3	0.3	1.1
8	Mitch Moreland	0.0078	0.0057	0.0048	1.0	0.0	1.0
9	Daniel Vogelbach	0.0019	0.0010	0.0000	1.1	0.1	1.0
10	Chris Taylor	0.0138	0.0167	0.0163	1.0	0.1	0.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Amed Rosario	0.0217	0.0178	0.0145	3.7	1.7	2.0
2	Victor Robles	0.0169	0.0135	0.0075	4.8	3.2	1.6
3	Jorge Soler	0.0000	0.0015	0.0027	2.9	1.3	1.6
4	Eddie Rosario	0.0116	0.0082	0.0022	4.6	3.1	1.5
5	Trea Turner	0.0189	0.0155	0.0128	2.6	1.1	1.5
6	Hunter Dozier	0.0061	0.0079	0.0282	13.9	12.4	1.5
7	Michael Brantley	0.0023	0.0038	0.0041	2.1	0.6	1.5
8	Joey Gallo	0.0155	0.0104	0.0093	1.4	0.1	1.3
9	Keston Hiura	0.0169	0.0126	0.0106	1.6	0.4	1.2
10	Ben Gamel	0.0219	0.0177	0.0000	7.2	6.1	1.2

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Leury García	0.1505	0.1025 (23.0)	0.1102 (21.9)	0.1021 (22.5)	0.1029 (23.5)
Anthony Rendon	0.1811	0.1344 (23.2)	0.1377 (24.9)	0.1349 (22.2)	0.1340 (24.3)
Trey Mancini	0.1561	0.1139 (21.4)	0.1113 (27.2)	0.1150 (19.8)	0.1127 (23.0)
Marcus Semien	0.1647	0.1201 (25.3)	0.1254 (25.7)	0.1185 (25.6)	0.1217 (25.0)
Miguel Cabrera	0.0747	0.1178 (29.6)	0.1142 (24.3)	0.1302 (37.0)	0.1054 (22.1)
Rafael Devers	0.1838	0.1300 (30.2)	0.1235 (39.0)	0.1286 (30.4)	0.1313 (30.1)
Mitch Garver	0.1950	0.1093 (26.9)	0.1147 (27.1)	0.1106 (26.0)	0.1080 (27.8)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Andrew Benintendi	0.1466	0.1171	24.8
2	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.1360	0.1012	23.4
3	Christin Stewart	0.1222	0.0769	23.3
4	Tommy Pham	0.1423	0.1177	23.1
5	Rhys Hoskins	0.1420	0.1220	21.7
6	Jon Berti	0.0955	0.1812	21.5
7	Cody Bellinger	0.1406	0.1831	21.0
8	Bryan Reynolds	0.1029	0.1520	20.9
9	Tommy Edman	0.0983	0.1691	20.9
10	José Ramírez	0.1533	0.1255	20.9

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tommy Pham	0.1645	0.1177	33.7
2	Jorge Polanco	0.1098	0.1520	26.3
3	Cody Bellinger	0.1395	0.1831	25.6
4	Gleyber Torres	0.1135	0.1589	24.5
5	Jonathan Villar	0.1171	0.1555	24.0
6	Max Kepler	0.1224	0.1644	22.2
7	Dee Strange-Gordon	0.1321	0.0855	21.7
8	Trevor Story	0.1320	0.1692	21.3
9	Alex Bregman	0.1413	0.1768	21.2
10	Ketel Marte	0.1181	0.1545	19.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Andrew Benintendi	0.1504	0.1171	27.8
2	DJ LeMahieu	0.1156	0.1664	25.5
3	Christin Stewart	0.1245	0.0769	24.7
4	Cody Bellinger	0.1338	0.1831	24.7
5	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.1368	0.1012	24.5
6	Bryan Reynolds	0.0963	0.1520	23.9
7	Jon Berti	0.0889	0.1812	23.1
8	Tommy Edman	0.0929	0.1691	22.4
9	Rhys Hoskins	0.1398	0.1220	21.0
10	Mike Yastrzemski	0.0932	0.1557	20.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tommy Pham	0.1566	0.1177	31.7
2	Jorge Polanco	0.1078	0.1520	24.4
3	José Ramírez	0.1593	0.1255	23.5
4	Jonathan Villar	0.1133	0.1555	23.3
5	Delino DeShields	0.1483	0.1029	22.4
6	Rhys Hoskins	0.1442	0.1220	22.4
7	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.1351	0.1012	22.3
8	Gio Urshela	0.0973	0.1534	22.2
9	Christin Stewart	0.1199	0.0769	21.9
10	Carlos Santana	0.1190	0.1603	21.8

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Daniel Vogelbach	0.1012	0.1213	0.1308	13.9	0.7	13.2
2	Tommy Pham	0.1645	0.1423	0.1177	33.7	23.1	10.6
3	Juan Soto	0.1432	0.1528	0.1669	12.5	2.2	10.3
4	Jorge Polanco	0.1098	0.1181	0.1520	26.3	16.3	10.0
5	Harold Castro	0.1196	0.0871	0.0813	15.9	6.1	9.8
6	Ryan McMahon	0.1029	0.1144	0.1299	12.0	2.5	9.4
7	Mike Moustakas	0.1132	0.1233	0.1370	11.1	1.7	9.4
8	Richie Martin Jr.	0.1280	0.0938	0.0939	12.0	3.3	8.7
9	Rafael Devers	0.1235	0.1300	0.1838	39.0	30.2	8.7
10	Nicky Lopez	0.1280	0.1024	0.1095	9.4	1.5	7.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Albert Pujols	0.1144	0.1004	0.1009	13.9	5.6	8.3
2	Anthony Rizzo	0.1475	0.1363	0.1452	8.7	1.1	7.6
3	Miguel Cabrera	0.1302	0.1178	0.0747	37.0	29.6	7.5
4	DJ LeMahieu	0.1156	0.1273	0.1664	25.5	18.6	6.9
5	Jarrod Dyson	0.1021	0.1181	0.1438	13.5	6.8	6.7
6	Wilson Ramos	0.1110	0.1003	0.0992	12.4	6.2	6.2
7	Ozzie Albies	0.1241	0.1357	0.1453	6.5	0.8	5.8
8	José Abreu	0.1290	0.1220	0.1227	12.7	7.0	5.7
9	Charlie Blackmon	0.1511	0.1604	0.1767	8.6	3.5	5.1
10	Joey Votto	0.1383	0.1311	0.1299	12.3	7.2	5.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Tommy Pham	0.1566	0.1423	0.1177	31.7	23.1	8.5
2	Jorge Polanco	0.1078	0.1181	0.1520	24.4	16.3	8.1
3	Ozzie Albies	0.1472	0.1357	0.1453	8.0	0.8	7.3
4	Amed Rosario	0.1238	0.1116	0.1145	12.3	5.1	7.2
5	Nelson Cruz	0.1204	0.1322	0.1555	13.3	6.5	6.8
6	Carlos Santana	0.1190	0.1271	0.1603	21.8	15.5	6.4
7	Delino DeShields	0.1483	0.1321	0.1029	22.4	16.3	6.1
8	Curtis Granderson	0.1366	0.1196	0.1212	9.0	3.3	5.7
9	Nick Castellanos	0.1106	0.1180	0.1506	20.2	14.5	5.7
10	Anthony Rizzo	0.1250	0.1363	0.1452	6.5	1.1	5.4

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Anthony Rendon	0.1950	0.1416 (30.4)	0.1467 (27.5)	0.1357 (34.4)	0.1474 (26.6)
Josh Bell	0.1892	0.1257 (35.0)	0.1232 (36.9)	0.1252 (35.5)	0.1262 (34.6)
Ketel Marte	0.1465	0.0986 (26.1)	0.0914 (31.0)	0.0987 (26.1)	0.0985 (26.1)
Joey Votto	0.0773	0.1249 (32.8)	0.1263 (33.3)	0.1243 (32.3)	0.1256 (33.4)
Eddie Rosario	0.1847	0.1345 (25.9)	0.1219 (33.7)	0.1395 (23.1)	0.1296 (28.7)
Rhys Hoskins	0.1206	0.1659 (36.5)	0.1515 (25.9)	0.1548 (28.4)	0.1771 (44.5)
Yordan Alvarez	0.2114	0.1271 (28.7)	0.1226 (30.6)	0.1225 (30.5)	0.1318 (27.0)
Jorge Soler	0.1723	0.1157 (34.1)	0.1047 (42.0)	0.1266 (26.8)	0.1048 (41.4)
DJ LeMahieu	0.1557	0.0974 (34.0)	0.1027 (30.9)	0.1032 (30.4)	0.0917 (37.7)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	George Springer	0.1205	0.1727	25.5
2	Travis Shaw	0.1463	0.0593	25.2
3	Leury García	0.0986	0.0647	24.9
4	Trevor Story	0.1611	0.1296	24.8
5	Nick Castellanos	0.1403	0.1099	24.4
6	Mitch Garver	0.1127	0.1866	24.3
7	Josh Phegley	0.1053	0.1813	23.8
8	Eduardo Escobar	0.1287	0.1688	23.6
9	Corey Dickerson	0.1218	0.2115	23.3
10	Gio Urshela	0.1003	0.1555	23.2

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Leury García	0.1102	0.0647	31.7
2	Pete Alonso	0.1226	0.1732	31.0
3	Asdrúbal Cabrera	0.1162	0.1770	28.3
4	Danny Santana	0.0983	0.1585	27.8
5	Corey Dickerson	0.1080	0.2115	27.3
6	Renato Núñez	0.1000	0.1503	26.6
7	George Springer	0.1191	0.1727	26.6
8	Brett Gardner	0.0820	0.1345	25.7
9	Austin Meadows	0.1020	0.1506	25.3
10	Christian Vázquez	0.0840	0.1382	25.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Eduardo Escobar	0.1131	0.1688	34.7
2	George Springer	0.1179	0.1727	27.0
3	Mitch Garver	0.1098	0.1866	25.4
4	Asdrúbal Cabrera	0.1227	0.1770	24.8
5	Nick Castellanos	0.1407	0.1099	24.5
6	Travis Shaw	0.1409	0.0593	23.7
7	Josh Phegley	0.1061	0.1813	23.6
8	Mookie Betts	0.1402	0.1133	23.3
9	Trevor Story	0.1585	0.1296	23.0
10	Danny Santana	0.1083	0.1585	22.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Leury García	0.1029	0.0647	27.7
2	Christian Vázquez	0.0796	0.1382	27.1
3	Gio Urshela	0.0923	0.1555	27.0
4	Brett Gardner	0.0791	0.1345	26.9
5	Travis Shaw	0.1518	0.0593	26.7
6	Trevor Story	0.1636	0.1296	26.6
7	Corey Dickerson	0.1103	0.2115	26.4
8	Khris Davis	0.1794	0.1370	26.1
9	Hunter Dozier	0.0939	0.1433	25.1
10	Howie Kendrick	0.0947	0.1676	24.5

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Juan Soto	0.1325	0.1579	0.1669	18.9	1.8	17.1
2	Nicky Lopez	0.1226	0.0803	0.0746	21.6	4.8	16.8
3	Franmil Reyes	0.1105	0.1402	0.1478	17.3	0.7	16.6
4	Kyle Schwarber	0.1189	0.1426	0.1508	15.9	1.1	14.8
5	Renato Núñez	0.1000	0.1240	0.1503	26.6	11.9	14.7
6	Richie Martin Jr.	0.1226	0.0761	0.0744	16.7	2.5	14.2
7	Rafael Devers	0.1276	0.1465	0.1638	21.4	7.7	13.7
8	Luis Arraez	0.1226	0.0857	0.0765	19.0	5.7	13.3
9	Luis Rengifo	0.1226	0.0900	0.0813	19.1	6.1	13.0
10	Cody Bellinger	0.1378	0.1565	0.1740	20.1	7.3	12.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Eduardo Escobar	0.1131	0.1287	0.1688	34.7	23.6	11.1
2	Juan Soto	0.1455	0.1579	0.1669	10.0	1.8	8.3
3	Matt Adams	0.1399	0.1628	0.1682	7.4	0.3	7.0
4	Gleyber Torres	0.1308	0.1437	0.1490	7.3	0.6	6.7
5	David Fletcher	0.0980	0.0886	0.0750	19.0	13.0	6.0
6	Bryce Harper	0.1523	0.1605	0.1672	5.9	0.2	5.7
7	Tom Murphy	0.1032	0.1232	0.1423	9.3	3.6	5.7
8	Christian Yelich	0.1350	0.1440	0.1672	15.1	9.8	5.3
9	Corey Seager	0.1206	0.1297	0.1608	18.4	13.4	5.0
10	Nelson Cruz	0.1684	0.1777	0.2073	17.1	12.1	5.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Rhys Hoskins	0.1771	0.1659	0.1206	44.5	36.5	8.0
2	Gleyber Torres	0.1565	0.1437	0.1490	8.5	0.6	7.9
3	Matt Adams	0.1856	0.1628	0.1682	8.0	0.3	7.7
4	Jorge Soler	0.1048	0.1157	0.1723	41.4	34.1	7.3
5	Eugenio Suárez	0.1619	0.1516	0.1556	8.5	1.5	6.9
6	Jorge Polanco	0.1218	0.1122	0.1122	11.3	4.4	6.9
7	Jesús Aguilar	0.1806	0.1625	0.1355	19.1	12.3	6.8
8	Andrew Benintendi	0.1368	0.1264	0.1106	20.2	13.6	6.5
9	Gary Sánchez	0.1820	0.1686	0.1726	7.1	1.0	6.1
10	Christian Vázquez	0.0796	0.0914	0.1382	27.1	21.1	6.1

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Manuel Margot	0.2020	0.1265 (38.0)	0.1092 (43.9)	0.1298 (35.5)	0.1231 (40.5)
Mookie Betts	0.0792	0.1494 (42.0)	0.1419 (39.5)	0.1387 (36.1)	0.1602 (48.1)
Mallex Smith	0.3407	0.2533 (55.5)	0.2101 (77.8)	0.2369 (63.5)	0.2701 (47.3)
Ian Desmond	0.0319	0.1273 (40.8)	0.1221 (40.2)	0.1213 (39.1)	0.1333 (42.7)
Marcell Ozuna	0.0945	0.0136 (50.3)	0.0134 (48.3)	0.0144 (48.6)	0.0127 (52.0)
Whit Merrifield	0.1058	0.1969 (59.1)	0.1887 (55.9)	0.1854 (52.3)	0.2083 (65.8)
Kolten Wong	0.1538	0.0673 (53.4)	0.0588 (55.9)	0.0638 (54.0)	0.0708 (52.7)
Elvis Andrus	0.1938	0.0928 (72.3)	0.1102 (58.6)	0.0901 (72.6)	0.0956 (72.0)
Christian Yelich	0.1734	0.0930 (52.8)	0.0843 (55.6)	0.0831 (57.2)	0.1033 (48.2)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Luis Rengifo	0.1758	0.0196	59.1
2	Adalberto Mondesi	0.3874	0.4831	47.1
3	Jorge Polanco	0.0906	0.0221	40.7
4	Byron Buxton	0.1757	0.2917	37.3
5	Kevin Kiermaier	0.1396	0.2065	37.2
6	José Ramírez	0.1479	0.2034	35.9
7	Paul DeJong	0.0177	0.0604	35.4
8	Shin-Soo Choo	0.0390	0.0798	33.9
9	Tommy Pham	0.0979	0.1351	31.3
10	Jose Altuve	0.1123	0.0455	30.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adalberto Mondesi	0.3200	0.4831	75.3
2	Victor Robles	0.0877	0.1918	68.4
3	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.1053	0.1897	65.3
4	Jon Berti	0.0638	0.2152	45.4
5	Óscar Mercado	0.0529	0.1389	44.8
6	Tommy Edman	0.0529	0.1724	44.1
7	Garrett Hampson	0.0690	0.1948	43.4
8	Nick Senzel	0.0529	0.1505	43.3
9	Kevin Newman	0.0339	0.1074	42.7
10	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.0529	0.1600	42.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adalberto Mondesi	0.3478	0.4831	63.6
2	Luis Rengifo	0.1632	0.0196	54.9
3	Jorge Polanco	0.0969	0.0221	46.8
4	José Ramírez	0.1348	0.2034	41.7
5	Kevin Kiermaier	0.1318	0.2065	39.9
6	Byron Buxton	0.1670	0.2917	39.3
7	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.1481	0.1897	35.7
8	Paul DeJong	0.0185	0.0604	33.4
9	Charlie Blackmon	0.0741	0.0133	33.2
10	Shin-Soo Choo	0.0391	0.0798	32.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Luis Rengifo	0.1888	0.0196	63.5
2	Jonathan Villar	0.2932	0.2235	40.6
3	Jose Altuve	0.1290	0.0455	38.7
4	Paul DeJong	0.0168	0.0604	37.5
5	Shin-Soo Choo	0.0390	0.0798	35.5
6	Byron Buxton	0.1848	0.2917	35.3
7	Kevin Kiermaier	0.1474	0.2065	34.6
8	Jorge Polanco	0.0840	0.0221	34.5
9	Austin Meadows	0.1531	0.0822	34.2
10	Adam Engel	0.1980	0.0526	32.9

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Victor Robles	0.0877	0.2035	0.1918	68.4	0.6	67.8
2	Jon Berti	0.0638	0.2145	0.2152	45.4	3.3	42.1
3	Kevin Newman	0.0339	0.1241	0.1074	42.7	3.2	39.4
4	Garrett Hampson	0.0690	0.1917	0.1948	43.4	4.5	38.9
5	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.1053	0.1589	0.1897	65.3	29.6	35.7
6	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.0529	0.1405	0.1600	42.4	11.2	31.2
7	Adalberto Mondesi	0.3200	0.3874	0.4831	75.3	47.1	28.2
8	Pete Alonso	0.0529	0.0138	0.0061	27.6	2.0	25.6
9	Dylan Moore	0.0529	0.1409	0.1833	38.7	15.0	23.7
10	Mallex Smith	0.2101	0.2533	0.3407	77.8	55.5	22.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Adalberto Mondesi	0.3478	0.3874	0.4831	63.6	47.1	16.5
2	Jarrod Dyson	0.2126	0.2510	0.2479	19.8	3.4	16.3
3	Victor Robles	0.1836	0.2035	0.1918	10.2	0.6	9.5
4	Mallex Smith	0.2369	0.2533	0.3407	63.5	55.5	8.0
5	Adam Frazier	0.0663	0.0569	0.0327	15.3	8.3	7.1
6	Trevor Story	0.1329	0.1460	0.1437	12.6	5.5	7.1
7	Garrett Hampson	0.1691	0.1917	0.1948	11.1	4.5	6.6
8	Trea Turner	0.2330	0.2469	0.2500	14.4	7.8	6.6
9	Wil Myers	0.1228	0.1385	0.1379	11.5	4.9	6.6
10	Jake Marisnick	0.1348	0.1571	0.1613	11.1	4.7	6.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jonathan Villar	0.2932	0.2536	0.2235	40.6	13.9	26.7
2	Leury García	0.1646	0.1428	0.1000	31.9	19.9	12.0
3	Victor Robles	0.2240	0.2035	0.1918	11.9	0.6	11.3
4	Jarrod Dyson	0.2895	0.2510	0.2479	12.9	3.4	9.5
5	Billy Hamilton	0.3333	0.3054	0.2588	21.7	12.7	9.1
6	Austin Meadows	0.1531	0.1361	0.0822	34.2	25.6	8.7
7	Hanser Alberto	0.0111	0.0236	0.0276	16.2	8.0	8.2
8	Jose Altuve	0.1290	0.1123	0.0455	38.7	30.8	7.9
9	Mike Trout	0.1225	0.1080	0.0582	30.9	23.5	7.4
10	Ramón Laureano	0.1552	0.1383	0.1182	11.6	4.6	7.0

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Howie Kendrick	0.3443	0.2794 (23.3)	0.2796 (24.8)	0.2808 (23.4)	0.2779 (23.3)
Eric Sogard	0.2904	0.2319 (25.0)	0.2377 (24.3)	0.2379 (23.1)	0.2261 (27.0)
Marcus Semien	0.2846	0.2506 (24.0)	0.2486 (28.7)	0.2513 (24.7)	0.2500 (23.3)
Travis Shaw	0.1565	0.2514 (26.1)	0.2526 (25.3)	0.2492 (25.1)	0.2536 (27.1)
Tim Anderson	0.3353	0.2526 (41.9)	0.2537 (43.5)	0.2531 (42.4)	0.2520 (41.4)
Hunter Dozier	0.2792	0.2294 (28.0)	0.2363 (26.5)	0.2325 (27.2)	0.2265 (28.9)
J.D. Davis	0.3073	0.2399 (29.7)	0.2273 (37.3)	0.2409 (30.0)	0.2389 (29.5)
Bryan Reynolds	0.3136	0.2458 (36.0)	0.2557 (32.9)	0.2634 (27.3)	0.2282 (44.8)
Ketel Marte	0.3286	0.2790 (30.0)	0.2579 (45.9)	0.2809 (29.8)	0.2772 (30.2)
Gio Urshela	0.3145	0.2460 (31.7)	0.2409 (36.2)	0.2486 (31.2)	0.2434 (32.2)
Rafael Devers	0.3107	0.2674 (29.1)	0.2523 (42.7)	0.2701 (28.3)	0.2648 (29.9)
Yoán Moncada	0.3151	0.2347 (43.9)	0.2380 (44.4)	0.2359 (44.1)	0.2335 (43.7)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	DJ LeMahieu	0.2717	0.3272	35.2
2	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.2276	0.3174	32.7
3	Rougned Odor	0.2483	0.2050	26.3
4	Cody Bellinger	0.2636	0.3047	25.9
5	Marcell Ozuna	0.2832	0.2412	24.0
6	Daniel Vogelbach	0.2481	0.2078	23.5
7	Carlos Santana	0.2450	0.2810	23.4
8	Jeff McNeil	0.2746	0.3176	23.4

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Hanser Alberto	0.2347	0.3053	40.2
2	Kevin Newman	0.2402	0.3083	37.4
3	Cody Bellinger	0.2606	0.3047	30.7
4	Luis Arraez	0.2557	0.3344	29.7
5	Danny Santana	0.2326	0.2827	26.8
6	Mallex Smith	0.2737	0.2275	24.8
7	Carlos Santana	0.2480	0.2810	24.2
8	Alex Gordon	0.2308	0.2662	23.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	DJ LeMahieu	0.2697	0.3272	37.5
2	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.2337	0.3174	31.0
3	Cody Bellinger	0.2575	0.3047	31.0
4	Yordan Alvarez	0.2419	0.3131	26.1
5	Marcell Ozuna	0.2880	0.2412	25.8
6	Rougned Odor	0.2480	0.2050	25.2
7	Jeff McNeil	0.2751	0.3176	23.9
8	Daniel Vogelbach	0.2478	0.2078	22.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.2215	0.3174	34.4
2	DJ LeMahieu	0.2736	0.3272	33.0
3	Rougned Odor	0.2486	0.2050	27.3
4	Carlos Santana	0.2391	0.2810	26.4
5	Daniel Vogelbach	0.2483	0.2078	24.5
6	Kevin Newman	0.2606	0.3083	23.5
7	Luis Arraez	0.2681	0.3344	23.0
8	Jeff McNeil	0.2740	0.3176	22.8

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Hanser Alberto	0.2347	0.2689	0.3053	40.2	19.0	21.1
2	Ketel Marte	0.2579	0.2790	0.3286	45.9	30.0	15.9
3	Kevin Newman	0.2402	0.2642	0.3083	37.4	22.4	15.0
4	Rafael Devers	0.2523	0.2674	0.3107	42.7	29.1	13.6
5	Max Kepler	0.2347	0.2503	0.2519	11.7	0.1	11.5
6	Mike Tauchman	0.2284	0.2611	0.2769	15.1	4.1	10.9
7	Alex Verdugo	0.2500	0.2723	0.2945	17.7	7.7	10.0
8	Danny Santana	0.2326	0.2473	0.2827	26.8	17.1	9.7
9	Carson Kelly	0.2201	0.2444	0.2452	10.0	0.4	9.7
10	Amed Rosario	0.2541	0.2641	0.2873	23.4	14.0	9.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Eduardo Escobar	0.2516	0.2597	0.2689	11.9	5.1	6.8
2	Mike Tauchman	0.2412	0.2611	0.2769	10.5	4.1	6.3
3	Cody Bellinger	0.2575	0.2636	0.3047	31.0	25.9	5.1
4	Charlie Blackmon	0.2869	0.2927	0.3138	16.9	12.2	4.7
5	Freddie Freeman	0.2871	0.2921	0.2948	5.1	0.6	4.5
6	Victor Robles	0.2740	0.2659	0.2546	12.2	8.1	4.0
7	Tom Murphy	0.1992	0.2120	0.2731	20.7	16.6	4.0
8	Eugenio Suárez	0.2566	0.2609	0.2713	9.5	5.7	3.9
9	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.3060	0.2970	0.2716	17.9	14.1	3.8
10	Nick Ahmed	0.2371	0.2416	0.2536	10.1	6.3	3.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Bryan Reynolds	0.2282	0.2458	0.3136	44.8	36.0	8.8
2	David Fletcher	0.2538	0.2632	0.2903	21.6	16.5	5.1
3	Bryce Harper	0.2713	0.2656	0.2600	10.0	5.0	4.9
4	Joey Votto	0.2905	0.2840	0.2610	20.0	15.1	4.9
5	Adam Eaton	0.2942	0.2886	0.2792	12.1	7.4	4.7
6	Cavan Biggio	0.1991	0.2110	0.2345	13.7	9.3	4.5
7	Roberto Pérez	0.1902	0.2015	0.2391	20.4	16.0	4.4
8	Josh Donaldson	0.2670	0.2624	0.2587	7.7	3.7	4.0
9	Harold Ramírez	0.2379	0.2482	0.2755	15.3	11.4	3.9
10	Nelson Cruz	0.2658	0.2744	0.3106	21.6	17.9	3.7

On-Base Percentage

Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Trey Mancini	0.3638	0.3140 (30.7)	0.3162 (33.3)	0.3169 (30.1)	0.3111 (31.3)
Marcus Semien	0.3695	0.3161 (36.5)	0.3158 (41.2)	0.3191 (35.7)	0.3130 (37.3)
Mark Canha	0.3964	0.3109 (40.2)	0.3073 (45.0)	0.3125 (40.4)	0.3093 (40.0)
Tim Anderson	0.3571	0.2862 (34.4)	0.2895 (35.8)	0.2884 (34.3)	0.2839 (34.5)
Hunter Dozier	0.3481	0.2912 (30.6)	0.2929 (33.2)	0.2971 (28.4)	0.2855 (32.9)
Bryan Reynolds	0.3773	0.3041 (37.5)	0.3269 (28.3)	0.3193 (30.3)	0.2890 (44.6)
J.D. Davis	0.3687	0.3002 (28.9)	0.2948 (34.1)	0.3031 (28.5)	0.2973 (29.4)
Cody Bellinger	0.4061	0.3503 (33.8)	0.3424 (43.0)	0.3432 (39.9)	0.3574 (27.9)
Joey Votto	0.3569	0.4142 (37.6)	0.4190 (36.9)	0.4074 (32.2)	0.4211 (43.0)
Alex Bregman	0.4232	0.3693 (34.1)	0.3641 (41.8)	0.3714 (34.0)	0.3672 (34.1)
Yordan Alvarez	0.4119	0.3113 (35.4)	0.3269 (31.9)	0.3073 (37.7)	0.3153 (33.2)
Gio Urshela	0.3550	0.2846 (31.3)	0.2971 (28.3)	0.2892 (30.1)	0.2800 (32.6)

Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.2933	0.3790	30.2
2	Austin Meadows	0.3093	0.3638	29.5
3	José Ramírez	0.3763	0.3266	29.4
4	Jeff McNeil	0.3293	0.3845	28.7
5	Luis Arraez	0.3164	0.3989	28.5
6	Paul Goldschmidt	0.3821	0.3456	28.0
7	David Fletcher	0.3031	0.3497	27.4
8	Ketel Marte	0.3413	0.3885	26.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ketel Marte	0.3225	0.3885	42.4
2	Rafael Devers	0.3113	0.3609	35.8
3	Christian Yelich	0.3752	0.4293	32.2
4	Yasmani Grandal	0.3313	0.3797	31.5
5	Carlos Santana	0.3539	0.3965	30.2
6	Paul Goldschmidt	0.3901	0.3456	29.3
7	Anthony Rendon	0.3692	0.4118	28.5
8	Kevin Newman	0.3016	0.3535	28.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.2944	0.3790	30.5
2	Jeff McNeil	0.3291	0.3845	30.0
3	Paul Goldschmidt	0.3853	0.3456	28.9
4	Christian Walker	0.2985	0.3483	28.5
5	Austin Meadows	0.3150	0.3638	27.3
6	Luis Arraez	0.3234	0.3989	26.7
7	José Ramírez	0.3726	0.3266	26.4
8	DJ LeMahieu	0.3334	0.3746	25.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	José Ramírez	0.3799	0.3266	32.5
2	David Fletcher	0.2935	0.3497	32.4
3	Austin Meadows	0.3036	0.3638	31.7
4	Luis Arraez	0.3094	0.3989	30.4
5	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.2922	0.3790	29.9
6	Anthony Rendon	0.3601	0.4118	29.1
7	Ketel Marte	0.3367	0.3885	28.4
8	Bryce Harper	0.4071	0.3724	28.1

Most Unique Misses for On-Base Percentage

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Juan Soto	0.3777	0.3965	0.4006	16.1	0.3	15.7
2	Ketel Marte	0.3225	0.3413	0.3885	42.4	26.8	15.6
3	Carson Kelly	0.2900	0.3226	0.3479	21.7	7.6	14.1
4	Yasmani Grandal	0.3313	0.3467	0.3797	31.5	18.0	13.5
5	Rafael Devers	0.3113	0.3241	0.3609	35.8	22.6	13.2
6	Jorge Soler	0.3246	0.3376	0.3536	20.7	7.7	13.0
7	Max Kepler	0.3147	0.3318	0.3356	13.3	0.5	12.8
8	Jason Heyward	0.3231	0.3362	0.3430	12.6	1.3	11.3
9	Bubba Starling	0.3269	0.2639	0.2551	13.9	2.6	11.2
10	Josh Bell	0.3429	0.3537	0.3670	15.7	5.4	10.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Tauchman	0.3068	0.3256	0.3615	15.4	9.3	6.2
2	Cody Bellinger	0.3432	0.3503	0.4061	39.9	33.8	6.0
3	Max Muncy	0.3424	0.3488	0.3735	16.8	11.8	5.0
4	Freddie Freeman	0.3795	0.3844	0.3887	4.6	0.2	4.4
5	Charlie Blackmon	0.3538	0.3585	0.3644	5.0	0.8	4.3
6	Josh Donaldson	0.3651	0.3691	0.3794	7.7	3.7	4.0
7	Wilfredo Tovar	0.3269	0.2800	0.2386	8.0	4.0	4.0
8	Christian Walker	0.2985	0.3029	0.3483	28.5	24.6	3.9
9	Óscar Mercado	0.2932	0.2991	0.3179	10.7	6.9	3.8
10	Tom Murphy	0.2528	0.2640	0.3238	19.2	15.5	3.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Bryan Reynolds	0.2890	0.3041	0.3773	44.6	37.5	7.1
2	Bryce Harper	0.4071	0.4003	0.3724	28.1	22.1	6.0
3	Joey Votto	0.4211	0.4142	0.3569	43.0	37.6	5.4
4	Eduardo Escobar	0.3237	0.3184	0.3205	6.8	1.8	5.1
5	David Fletcher	0.2935	0.3031	0.3497	32.4	27.4	5.0
6	Freddie Freeman	0.3894	0.3844	0.3887	5.0	0.2	4.8
7	Kris Bryant	0.3649	0.3737	0.3817	6.5	2.2	4.3
8	J.T. Realmuto	0.3351	0.3299	0.3277	8.3	4.0	4.3
9	Harold Ramírez	0.2809	0.2923	0.3124	11.1	6.9	4.2
10	Jorge Polanco	0.3159	0.3237	0.3561	23.7	19.6	4.1

Slugging Percentage

Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
George Springer	0.5908	0.4541 (62.0)	0.4560 (68.9)	0.4640 (57.4)	0.4444 (66.5)
Mitch Garver	0.6302	0.3862 (78.5)	0.4125 (74.2)	0.4018 (73.5)	0.3708 (83.5)
Marcus Semien	0.5221	0.4086 (65.9)	0.4049 (79.3)	0.4122 (64.5)	0.4052 (67.3)
Josh Bell	0.5693	0.4386 (64.7)	0.4335 (76.5)	0.4448 (61.9)	0.4324 (67.5)
Hunter Dozier	0.5220	0.3838 (66.2)	0.3956 (67.6)	0.3848 (66.6)	0.3828 (65.9)
Ketel Marte	0.5923	0.4317 (85.0)	0.3953 (116.8)	0.4347 (84.2)	0.4288 (85.8)
Pete Alonso	0.5829	0.4557 (70.7)	0.4432 (89.2)	0.4614 (67.9)	0.4500 (73.5)
Gio Urshela	0.5339	0.3632 (69.3)	0.3636 (75.8)	0.3773 (63.4)	0.3492 (75.2)
Khris Davis	0.3867	0.5102 (79.2)	0.5202 (77.0)	0.5043 (75.2)	0.5160 (83.2)
Yordan Alvarez	0.6550	0.4265 (75.0)	0.4432 (74.1)	0.4129 (80.6)	0.4401 (69.4)
Jorge Soler	0.5688	0.4306 (76.7)	0.4252 (90.0)	0.4378 (72.9)	0.4235 (80.5)
Christian Yelich	0.6708	0.5202 (72.7)	0.5029 (91.0)	0.5183 (74.8)	0.5220 (70.7)
Yoán Moncada	0.5479	0.4026 (67.2)	0.4060 (73.2)	0.3987 (70.3)	0.4064 (64.1)

Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	DJ LeMahieu	0.3906	0.5183	67.1
2	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.3983	0.5898	61.9
3	Bryan Reynolds	0.3669	0.5031	60.6
4	Cody Bellinger	0.5131	0.6290	60.0
5	Travis Shaw	0.4644	0.2696	59.4
6	Anthony Rendon	0.4841	0.5982	57.4
7	Austin Meadows	0.4365	0.5585	57.2

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Cody Bellinger	0.5000	0.6290	78.0
2	Danny Santana	0.3767	0.5338	74.6
3	Rafael Devers	0.4392	0.5549	73.5
4	Xander Bogaerts	0.4522	0.5554	64.4
5	Alex Bregman	0.4882	0.5921	64.1
6	Austin Meadows	0.4404	0.5585	63.3
7	Eugenio Suárez	0.4668	0.5722	62.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Cody Bellinger	0.4940	0.6290	73.7
2	DJ LeMahieu	0.3881	0.5183	69.9
3	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.3903	0.5898	65.5
4	Miguel Cabrera	0.4813	0.3976	58.9
5	Austin Meadows	0.4356	0.5585	58.7
6	Danny Santana	0.3967	0.5338	58.0
7	Anthony Rendon	0.4854	0.5982	57.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Bryan Reynolds	0.3564	0.5031	65.4
2	DJ LeMahieu	0.3931	0.5183	64.4
3	Travis Shaw	0.4724	0.2696	62.0
4	Matt Carpenter	0.4839	0.3918	58.5
5	Nelson Cruz	0.5000	0.6388	58.3
6	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.4064	0.5898	58.3
7	Anthony Rendon	0.4828	0.5982	57.2

Most Unique Misses for Slugging Percentage

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Rafael Devers	0.4392	0.4780	0.5549	73.5	36.3	37.2
2	Ketel Marte	0.3953	0.4317	0.5923	116.8	85.0	31.8
3	Nicky Lopez	0.4432	0.3541	0.3245	52.1	22.0	30.1
4	Richie Martin Jr.	0.4432	0.3325	0.3216	41.0	11.2	29.8
5	Luis Rengifo	0.4432	0.3577	0.3641	36.5	7.6	28.9
6	Juan Soto	0.4838	0.5378	0.5480	35.1	9.9	25.2
7	Willie Calhoun	0.3866	0.4434	0.5243	42.7	18.7	24.0
8	Max Kepler	0.4162	0.4416	0.5191	54.8	31.2	23.6
9	Ryan O'Hearn	0.4942	0.4175	0.3689	50.4	27.3	23.1
10	Danny Santana	0.3767	0.4068	0.5338	74.6	52.0	22.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Eduardo Escobar	0.4255	0.4500	0.5110	43.3	25.1	18.2
2	Max Muncy	0.4318	0.4561	0.5154	35.4	20.1	15.3
3	Cody Bellinger	0.4940	0.5131	0.6290	73.7	60.0	13.7
4	Charlie Blackmon	0.4880	0.5055	0.5759	40.8	28.6	12.1
5	Gleyber Torres	0.4429	0.4611	0.5348	41.3	29.3	12.0
6	Tom Murphy	0.3541	0.3943	0.5346	44.1	32.3	11.8
7	David Dahl	0.4678	0.4937	0.5241	13.5	2.1	11.4
8	Mike Tauchman	0.3653	0.4015	0.5038	34.1	22.8	11.2
9	Wilfredo Tovar	0.4432	0.3208	0.2530	18.8	8.2	10.6
10	Nick Ahmed	0.3827	0.3980	0.4371	19.3	8.7	10.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Juan Soto	0.5591	0.5378	0.5480	25.0	9.9	15.1
2	J.T. Realmuto	0.5030	0.4806	0.4926	22.1	7.9	14.2
3	Albert Pujols	0.3758	0.3981	0.4297	14.8	3.5	11.3
4	Carlos Santana	0.4190	0.4369	0.5148	47.4	36.1	11.2
5	Wil Myers	0.4623	0.4451	0.4184	34.7	25.4	9.2
6	Jorge Alfaro	0.3377	0.3582	0.4246	28.0	19.2	8.8
7	Roberto Pérez	0.3152	0.3356	0.4524	49.6	41.1	8.4
8	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.5109	0.5008	0.5176	14.4	6.0	8.4
9	Adam Eaton	0.4336	0.4227	0.4276	21.6	13.4	8.2
10	Nelson Cruz	0.5000	0.5166	0.6388	58.3	50.5	7.8

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Alex Cobb	60	673 (613.1)	651 (591.0)	748 (688.3)	598 (538.0)
Luis Severino	48	732 (684.4)	730 (682.0)	691 (642.8)	774 (726.0)
Corey Kluber	168	809 (641.4)	736 (568.0)	823 (654.7)	796 (628.0)
Jameson Taillon	158	764 (606.1)	713 (555.0)	801 (643.1)	727 (569.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Matt Moore	588	33	555.0
2	Tyler Anderson	637	106	531.5
3	Ryan Borucki	545	40	505.1
4	Carlos Rodón	657	158	498.8
5	Marco Estrada	597	106	491.3
6	Carlos Martinez	676	200	476.4
7	Zach Plesac	4	475	470.6
8	Logan Allen	596	127	469.5
9	Kyle Wright	555	93	461.8
10	Ervin Santana	495	64	430.5

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Merrill Kelly	100	777	677.0
2	Yusei Kikuchi	100	721	621.0
3	Dakota Hudson	169	757	588.0
4	Trent Thornton	100	677	577.0
5	Sandy Alcantara	271	838	567.0
6	Sean Manaea	662	109	553.0
7	Tyler Anderson	653	106	547.0
8	Marco Estrada	633	106	527.0
9	John Means	116	637	521.0
10	Sal Romano	586	77	509.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Merrill Kelly	100	777	677.0
2	John Means	41	637	596.4
3	Carlos Rodón	734	158	575.6
4	Matt Moore	606	33	573.0
5	Adrian Sampson	4	563	558.6
6	Tyler Anderson	631	106	524.9
7	Edinson Volquez	586	75	510.6
8	Brett Anderson	257	743	486.1
9	Tyler Beede	41	523	482.2
10	Logan Allen	606	127	478.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chase De Jong	683	9	674.0
2	Ryan Borucki	682	40	642.0
3	Michael King	639	9	630.0
4	Homer Bailey	100	696	596.0
5	Enyel De Los Santos	639	46	593.0
6	Yohander Méndez	611	21	590.0
7	Andrew Moore	605	20	585.0
8	Rico Garcia	602	30	572.0
9	Andrew Suárez	717	148	569.0
10	Cody Reed	591	25	566.0

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Merrill Kelly	100	753	777	677.0	24.0	653.0
2	Yusei Kikuchi	100	618	721	621.0	102.9	518.1
3	Dakota Hudson	169	625	757	588.0	131.9	456.1
4	Chris Paddack	100	467	568	468.0	101.0	367.0
5	Sandy Alcantara	271	614	838	567.0	223.5	343.5
6	Sean Manaea	662	322	109	553.0	213.4	339.6
7	Cal Quantrill	100	414	443	343.0	29.1	313.9
8	Spencer Turnbull	256	563	656	400.0	93.0	307.0
9	Trent Thornton	100	397	677	577.0	280.4	296.6
10	Dan Straily	583	306	236	347.0	69.7	277.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Merrill Kelly	100	753	777	677.0	24.0	653.0
2	Peter Lambert	4	312	420	415.6	108.3	307.3
3	John Means	41	344	637	596.4	293.2	303.2
4	Shaun Anderson	4	292	427	422.7	135.4	287.4
5	Adrian Sampson	4	289	563	558.6	274.3	284.3
6	Zac Gallen	40	322	334	293.9	11.9	281.9
7	Taylor Clarke	40	320	369	328.8	49.4	279.4
8	Alex Young	4	277	349	344.6	72.3	272.3
9	Griffin Canning	4	258	384	379.7	125.8	253.8
10	Nestor Cortes	4	251	298	293.7	46.8	246.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Chase De Jong	683	344	9	674.0	334.7	339.3
2	Michael King	639	322	9	630.0	312.7	317.3
3	James Marvel	616	310	84	532.0	226.2	305.8
4	Tyler Alexander	615	310	235	380.0	74.7	305.3
5	Thomas Eshelman	610	307	164	446.0	143.2	302.8
6	Cole Irvin	609	307	181	428.0	125.7	302.3
7	Dan Straily	607	306	236	371.0	69.7	301.3
8	Mike Shawaryn	604	304	103	501.0	201.2	299.8
9	T.J. Zeuch	603	304	99	504.0	204.7	299.3
10	Rico Garcia	602	303	30	572.0	273.2	298.8

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jack Flaherty	0.2541	0.2758 (37.6)	0.2939 (37.9)	0.2768 (36.9)	0.2748 (38.3)
Zack Greinke	0.2622	0.2772 (34.0)	0.2901 (30.2)	0.2844 (38.3)	0.2701 (29.7)
Justin Verlander	0.2424	0.2529 (31.8)	0.2748 (35.4)	0.2587 (35.1)	0.2470 (28.4)
Luis Castillo	0.2749	0.2825 (27.0)	0.3023 (28.7)	0.2859 (28.2)	0.2791 (25.8)
Edwin Jackson	0.4489	0.3146 (36.0)	0.3231 (39.1)	0.3213 (34.5)	0.3079 (37.7)
Dan Straily	0.4639	0.3177 (28.1)	0.3168 (32.5)	0.3208 (27.8)	0.3146 (28.4)
Gerrit Cole	0.2459	0.2613 (34.7)	0.2904 (44.0)	0.2665 (37.3)	0.2562 (32.0)
Hyun Jin Ryu	0.2613	0.2829 (35.1)	0.3055 (38.7)	0.2777 (30.0)	0.2881 (40.2)
Brandon Workman	0.2141	0.2958 (31.1)	0.3051 (28.7)	0.2987 (31.4)	0.2930 (30.8)
Yusei Kikuchi	0.3677	0.2967 (31.7)	0.3197 (27.8)	0.3056 (26.7)	0.2878 (36.8)
Sonny Gray	0.2630	0.2860 (35.4)	0.3147 (43.2)	0.2907 (37.4)	0.2813 (33.4)
Lucas Giolito	0.2754	0.3180 (49.1)	0.3279 (43.6)	0.3265 (53.7)	0.3095 (44.4)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	John Means	0.3230	0.2949	35.1
2	Lance Lynn	0.3055	0.2938	33.9
3	Ryan Yarbrough	0.2976	0.2740	28.5
4	Jake Odorizzi	0.3012	0.2870	27.1
5	José Suarez	0.2949	0.3932	26.7
6	Homer Bailey	0.3174	0.3062	26.6
7	Michael Soroka	0.2819	0.2710	26.6
8	Antonio Senzatela	0.3027	0.3730	25.2

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Shane Bieber	0.3214	0.2798	43.8
2	Homer Bailey	0.3513	0.3062	37.9
3	Michael Soroka	0.3151	0.2710	37.5
4	Chris Paddack	0.3197	0.2664	35.6
5	Adrian Sampson	0.3209	0.3822	29.2
6	Charlie Morton	0.2961	0.2701	28.0
7	Kyle Freeland	0.3050	0.3733	27.9
8	Mike Montgomery	0.3019	0.3794	27.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	John Means	0.3241	0.2949	34.5
2	Jake Odorizzi	0.3109	0.2870	32.2
3	Michael Soroka	0.2917	0.2710	32.1
4	Lance Lynn	0.3041	0.2938	31.0
5	Ryan Yarbrough	0.3009	0.2740	29.2
6	Stephen Strasburg	0.2746	0.2658	28.5
7	Andrew Cashner	0.3329	0.3162	26.5
8	José Suarez	0.2984	0.3932	26.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Lance Lynn	0.3068	0.2938	36.7
2	John Means	0.3220	0.2949	35.6
3	Homer Bailey	0.3197	0.3062	29.5
4	Antonio Senzatela	0.2946	0.3730	28.8
5	Ryan Yarbrough	0.2943	0.2740	27.7
6	José Suarez	0.2913	0.3932	27.4
7	Chris Paddack	0.2839	0.2664	26.3
8	Mike Montgomery	0.2860	0.3794	25.9

Most Unique Misses for wOBA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Shane Bieber	0.3214	0.2772	0.2798	43.8	21.0	22.8
2	Chris Paddack	0.3197	0.2758	0.2664	35.6	20.7	14.9
3	Reynaldo López	0.3090	0.3089	0.3484	24.3	10.1	14.2
4	Miles Mikolas	0.2804	0.2807	0.3179	21.5	7.7	13.8
5	Aaron Brooks	0.3063	0.3140	0.3473	15.3	3.1	12.2
6	Joey Lucchesi	0.3180	0.2832	0.2959	21.6	9.8	11.8
7	Martín Pérez	0.3415	0.3039	0.3331	13.0	1.6	11.5
8	Homer Bailey	0.3513	0.3174	0.3062	37.9	26.6	11.3
9	Ariel Jurado	0.3204	0.3231	0.3592	16.0	4.9	11.0
10	Michael Soroka	0.3151	0.2819	0.2710	37.5	26.6	10.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Merrill Kelly	0.3197	0.3019	0.3187	20.3	7.9	12.3
2	Trent Thornton	0.2847	0.2962	0.3246	10.0	0.9	9.1
3	Clayton Kershaw	0.2649	0.2533	0.2773	8.9	2.2	6.8
4	Michael Soroka	0.2917	0.2819	0.2710	32.1	26.6	5.5
5	Jake Odorizzi	0.3109	0.3012	0.2870	32.2	27.1	5.1
6	Brad Keller	0.3052	0.2961	0.3074	16.2	11.2	5.1
7	Marcus Stroman	0.2982	0.2899	0.2992	18.6	13.8	4.9
8	Wilmer Font	0.2787	0.2900	0.3311	9.7	5.0	4.7
9	Stephen Strasburg	0.2746	0.2672	0.2658	28.5	23.9	4.6
10	Lucas Giolito	0.3265	0.3180	0.2754	53.7	49.1	4.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Leake	0.2887	0.3000	0.3410	19.5	11.6	7.9
2	Aaron Sanchez	0.2875	0.3017	0.3533	22.3	14.8	7.5
3	Jason Vargas	0.3144	0.3048	0.3164	17.4	10.0	7.4
4	Trent Thornton	0.3077	0.2962	0.3246	8.1	0.9	7.2
5	Tyler Beede	0.3306	0.3187	0.3389	10.7	3.6	7.2
6	Trevor Williams	0.2831	0.2954	0.3496	24.0	17.3	6.7
7	Asher Wojciechowski	0.3388	0.3225	0.3382	10.6	4.1	6.5
8	Max Fried	0.2999	0.2925	0.3152	9.5	3.1	6.5
9	Adrian Houser	0.3254	0.3136	0.3018	24.2	17.9	6.3
10	Elieser Hernández	0.3380	0.3231	0.3385	10.0	4.1	5.9

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Lucas Giolito	0.3234	0.1705 (94.6)	0.1798 (96.8)	0.1775 (92.9)	0.1635 (97.5)
Matthew Boyd	0.3020	0.1988 (66.6)	0.2109 (66.9)	0.2019 (67.8)	0.1957 (66.7)
Nick Anderson	0.4167	0.2774 (31.8)	0.2300 (47.6)	0.2808 (32.1)	0.2740 (31.9)
Shane Bieber	0.3015	0.2058 (66.2)	0.2312 (55.0)	0.2151 (62.1)	0.1965 (71.6)
Lance Lynn	0.2811	0.1991 (55.5)	0.2162 (51.3)	0.2081 (51.6)	0.1900 (60.7)
Antonio Senzatela	0.1306	0.1860 (43.1)	0.1921 (39.4)	0.1866 (40.8)	0.1854 (44.6)
Mike Clevinger	0.3387	0.2394 (40.2)	0.2475 (42.4)	0.2494 (37.5)	0.2295 (43.7)
Brandon Workman	0.3636	0.2062 (39.7)	0.2233 (38.3)	0.2101 (39.9)	0.2022 (40.0)
Yusei Kikuchi	0.1609	0.2157 (53.0)	0.2300 (54.3)	0.2222 (54.4)	0.2093 (50.5)
Sonny Gray	0.2895	0.2207 (35.5)	0.2132 (49.6)	0.2227 (37.4)	0.2187 (34.8)
Gerrit Cole	0.3990	0.2822 (80.1)	0.2721 (98.6)	0.2886 (78.7)	0.2759 (82.9)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Masahiro Tanaka	0.2297	0.1963	39.5
2	Drew Pomeranz	0.2006	0.3011	37.2
3	Aníbal Sánchez	0.2204	0.1882	36.2
4	Justin Verlander	0.2937	0.3542	35.4
5	Homer Bailey	0.1453	0.2141	34.9
6	Iván Nova	0.1652	0.1414	34.2
7	Jake Odorizzi	0.2029	0.2705	32.2
8	Erick Fedde	0.1980	0.1228	31.4
9	Brett Anderson	0.1445	0.1211	31.3

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Justin Verlander	0.2892	0.3542	49.8
2	Brett Anderson	0.1759	0.1211	45.4
3	Liam Hendriks	0.2374	0.3735	43.1
4	Peter Lambert	0.2300	0.1357	42.2
5	Glenn Sparkman	0.1947	0.1337	40.8
6	Josh Hader	0.3310	0.4775	40.5
7	Marco Gonzales	0.2097	0.1697	40.0
8	Luke Jackson	0.2072	0.3365	38.8
9	Gabriel Ynoa	0.2120	0.1396	37.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Drew Pomeranz	0.1951	0.3011	41.8
2	Homer Bailey	0.1453	0.2141	38.1
3	Masahiro Tanaka	0.2316	0.1963	37.5
4	Jake Odorizzi	0.2035	0.2705	34.8
5	Liam Hendriks	0.2550	0.3735	34.7
6	Brandon Woodruff	0.2097	0.2901	32.7
7	Aníbal Sánchez	0.2197	0.1882	32.5
8	Erick Fedde	0.2052	0.1228	32.2
9	Luis Castillo	0.2342	0.2894	32.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Justin Verlander	0.2825	0.3542	42.3
2	Masahiro Tanaka	0.2278	0.1963	40.4
3	Iván Nova	0.1684	0.1414	39.2
4	Aníbal Sánchez	0.2212	0.1882	38.9
5	Yoan López	0.2867	0.1707	33.9
6	Mike Fiers	0.1900	0.1671	33.6
7	Drew Pomeranz	0.2062	0.3011	33.3
8	Rick Porcello	0.2076	0.1862	33.1
9	Josh James	0.2324	0.3759	32.4

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Sandy Alcantara	0.2177	0.1712	0.1802	36.7	8.1	28.5
2	Peter Lambert	0.2300	0.1510	0.1357	42.2	14.3	27.9
3	Dario Agrazal	0.2300	0.1311	0.1277	34.8	7.1	27.8
4	Merrill Kelly	0.2300	0.1873	0.2033	25.6	2.0	23.5
5	Gabriel Ynoa	0.2120	0.1517	0.1396	37.7	14.8	22.9
6	Aaron Brooks	0.2143	0.1485	0.1701	24.3	1.4	22.9
7	Dakota Hudson	0.2071	0.1574	0.1797	25.5	2.7	22.8
8	Glenn Sparkman	0.1947	0.1455	0.1337	40.8	18.5	22.3
9	Colin Poche	0.2300	0.3245	0.3478	23.1	1.0	22.1
10	Walker Buehler	0.2544	0.2747	0.2917	22.9	1.2	21.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Merrill Kelly	0.2300	0.1873	0.2033	31.7	2.0	29.6
2	Clayton Kershaw	0.2340	0.2460	0.2677	13.8	2.1	11.7
3	Stephen Strasburg	0.2572	0.2647	0.2985	22.8	12.6	10.2
4	Gabriel Ynoa	0.1756	0.1517	0.1396	24.1	14.8	9.3
5	Patrick Corbin	0.2428	0.2484	0.2850	23.5	15.0	8.5
6	Trent Thornton	0.2209	0.1985	0.2201	10.1	1.9	8.1
7	Josh Hader	0.3676	0.3894	0.4775	27.7	20.1	7.6
8	Aaron Brooks	0.1381	0.1485	0.1701	8.6	1.4	7.2
9	Steven Brault	0.2251	0.2067	0.1980	20.8	13.8	7.0
10	Junior Guerra	0.2526	0.2280	0.2238	14.7	7.9	6.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Zach Plesac	0.2300	0.1592	0.1853	31.6	3.5	28.1
2	Nick Margevicius	0.2300	0.1751	0.1597	24.2	9.0	15.2
3	Trent Thornton	0.1761	0.1985	0.2201	15.1	1.9	13.1
4	Reggie McClain	0.2300	0.1264	0.1158	12.9	2.8	10.1
5	Chris Sale	0.3049	0.3232	0.3562	18.1	8.7	9.4
6	Mike Minor	0.1891	0.2023	0.2317	18.0	9.3	8.7
7	Freddy Peralta	0.3058	0.2861	0.3010	10.1	1.4	8.7
8	Pedro Payano	0.2300	0.1436	0.1650	8.9	0.3	8.6
9	Brad Peacock	0.2889	0.2722	0.2507	23.0	15.4	7.6
10	Matt Strahm	0.2676	0.2553	0.2423	22.9	15.4	7.5

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Ryan Yarbrough	0.0355	0.0754 (23.6)	0.0805 (26.7)	0.0816 (26.8)	0.0691 (20.5)
Matt Strahm	0.0452	0.0887 (22.2)	0.0943 (25.1)	0.0921 (23.6)	0.0853 (20.9)
Daniel Norris	0.0623	0.0933 (20.1)	0.0888 (17.6)	0.0920 (19.0)	0.0945 (21.4)
Lance Lynn	0.0674	0.0989 (29.3)	0.1006 (31.1)	0.0997 (29.5)	0.0980 (29.3)
Walker Buehler	0.0502	0.0780 (22.0)	0.0783 (22.4)	0.0787 (22.0)	0.0773 (22.1)
Trevor Rosenthal	0.3059	0.1097 (16.5)	0.0930 (17.9)	0.1054 (16.9)	0.1141 (16.1)
Hyun Jin Ryu	0.0332	0.0595 (20.5)	0.0728 (30.4)	0.0632 (22.7)	0.0559 (18.4)
Brandon Workman	0.1573	0.0857 (19.9)	0.0825 (20.7)	0.0891 (19.1)	0.0824 (20.6)
Max Fried	0.0670	0.1163 (36.1)	0.0980 (23.5)	0.1089 (30.4)	0.1238 (41.9)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Trent Thornton	0.0535	0.0901	23.4
2	Aaron Nola	0.0653	0.0939	22.6
3	Luis Castillo	0.0706	0.1012	22.3
4	Lucas Giolito	0.1081	0.0809	20.6
5	Tyler Beede	0.1236	0.0880	19.7
6	Zack Greinke	0.0581	0.0370	18.7
7	Nathan Eovaldi	0.0571	0.1159	17.1
8	Zack Wheeler	0.0783	0.0604	16.5
9	Tyler Mahle	0.0888	0.0612	16.5
10	Wes Parsons	0.0810	0.1847	16.0

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tyler Mahle	0.0974	0.0612	21.5
2	Zack Greinke	0.0599	0.0370	20.4
3	Jace Fry	0.0889	0.1713	20.1
4	Zack Wheeler	0.0820	0.0604	19.8
5	José Berríos	0.0814	0.0606	19.6
6	Mike Leake	0.0529	0.0323	19.1
7	Germán Márquez	0.0725	0.0485	19.0
8	Chris Paddack	0.0852	0.0546	18.7
9	Jack Flaherty	0.0920	0.0712	17.9
10	Madison Bumgarner	0.0690	0.0509	17.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Trent Thornton	0.0556	0.0901	22.4
2	Luis Castillo	0.0712	0.1012	22.3
3	Zack Greinke	0.0630	0.0370	22.2
4	Lucas Giolito	0.1104	0.0809	21.8
5	Mike Leake	0.0533	0.0323	18.7
6	Aaron Nola	0.0706	0.0939	18.6
7	Germán Márquez	0.0716	0.0485	17.6
8	Tyler Beede	0.1198	0.0880	17.4
9	Wes Parsons	0.0743	0.1847	17.1
10	Zack Wheeler	0.0796	0.0604	17.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aaron Nola	0.0600	0.0939	26.5
2	Trent Thornton	0.0514	0.0901	24.3
3	Luis Castillo	0.0700	0.1012	22.1
4	Tyler Beede	0.1274	0.0880	22.1
5	Brad Keller	0.0669	0.0987	20.6
6	Lucas Giolito	0.1058	0.0809	19.6
7	Jairo Díaz	0.1534	0.0776	19.3
8	Nathan Eovaldi	0.0544	0.1159	17.7
9	Tyler Mahle	0.0885	0.0612	16.8
10	Yusei Kikuchi	0.0895	0.0693	16.5

Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Chris Paddack	0.0852	0.0573	0.0546	18.7	2.7	16.0
2	Shane Bieber	0.0632	0.0430	0.0466	16.4	1.3	15.1
3	Tanner Rainey	0.1024	0.1654	0.1776	15.6	2.2	13.4
4	Michael Soroka	0.0798	0.0658	0.0585	16.6	6.6	10.0
5	Hyun Jin Ryu	0.0728	0.0595	0.0332	30.4	20.5	9.8
6	Darwinzon Hernández	0.0852	0.1514	0.1769	13.1	3.4	9.7
7	Scott Barlow	0.0780	0.1078	0.1194	12.1	2.9	9.1
8	Aaron Brooks	0.0893	0.0663	0.0705	10.2	1.0	9.1
9	Dario Agrazal	0.0852	0.0508	0.0561	10.1	1.0	9.1
10	Tyler Alexander	0.0852	0.0474	0.0298	13.6	4.6	8.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Merrill Kelly	0.0852	0.0744	0.0734	10.3	2.4	7.9
2	Joe Musgrove	0.0595	0.0519	0.0543	4.7	0.3	4.5
3	Scott Barlow	0.0943	0.1078	0.1194	7.3	2.9	4.4
4	Mike Leake	0.0533	0.0474	0.0323	18.7	14.3	4.4
5	Julio Teheran	0.0868	0.0917	0.1101	16.5	12.3	4.2
6	Roberto Osuna	0.0655	0.0506	0.0474	4.9	1.3	3.6
7	Gerrit Cole	0.0752	0.0702	0.0588	14.6	11.0	3.6
8	Yonny Chirinos	0.0669	0.0595	0.0528	8.2	4.6	3.6
9	Zack Greinke	0.0630	0.0581	0.0370	22.2	18.7	3.4
10	Chase Anderson	0.0704	0.0755	0.0845	7.5	4.1	3.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Brad Keller	0.0669	0.0767	0.0987	20.6	14.2	6.4
2	Jairo Díaz	0.1534	0.1297	0.0776	19.3	13.3	6.0
3	Max Fried	0.1238	0.1163	0.0670	41.9	36.1	5.8
4	Homer Bailey	0.0852	0.0693	0.0761	8.2	3.3	4.9
5	Joe Musgrove	0.0443	0.0519	0.0543	5.2	0.3	4.9
6	Caleb Smith	0.1063	0.0995	0.0929	10.5	5.6	4.9
7	Spencer Turnbull	0.1030	0.0966	0.0899	10.4	5.7	4.7
8	Elvis Luciano	0.1106	0.1368	0.1509	6.0	1.9	4.0
9	Aaron Nola	0.0600	0.0653	0.0939	26.5	22.6	3.9
10	Shane Bieber	0.0378	0.0430	0.0466	5.1	1.3	3.9

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Dario Agrazal	0.0312	0.0109 (6.2)	0.0106 (6.3)	0.0118 (5.8)	0.0100 (6.7)
Alec Mills	0.0461	0.0102 (5.3)	0.0110 (5.2)	0.0094 (5.4)	0.0110 (5.3)
Spencer Turnbull	0.0244	0.0122 (7.5)	0.0078 (10.3)	0.0113 (7.8)	0.0131 (7.1)
Jordan Lyles	0.0017	0.0113 (6.2)	0.0112 (6.2)	0.0105 (6.0)	0.0120 (6.5)
Zack Wheeler	0.0024	0.0107 (7.5)	0.0104 (7.3)	0.0099 (7.2)	0.0114 (7.8)
José Suarez	0.0267	0.0108 (5.6)	0.0106 (5.7)	0.0099 (5.8)	0.0117 (5.4)
Merrill Kelly	0.0026	0.0120 (7.9)	0.0106 (6.9)	0.0106 (7.2)	0.0120 (7.6)
Jake Diekman	0.0390	0.0125 (7.3)	0.0132 (7.0)	0.0113 (7.5)	0.0136 (7.0)
Elieser Hernández	0.0255	0.0091 (5.5)	0.0070 (6.2)	0.0097 (5.1)	0.0085 (5.9)
Trevor Bauer	0.0209	0.0096 (9.5)	0.0102 (9.0)	0.0096 (9.2)	0.0096 (9.9)
Zach Davies	0.0030	0.0103 (5.5)	0.0103 (5.5)	0.0097 (5.3)	0.0109 (5.6)
Dallas Keuchel	0.0185	0.0041 (6.6)	0.0041 (6.6)	0.0057 (5.7)	0.0026 (7.5)
Clay Holmes	0.0375	0.0117 (6.0)	0.0132 (5.6)	0.0123 (5.8)	0.0110 (6.2)
Lucas Giolito	0.0057	0.0142 (6.6)	0.0163 (8.1)	0.0120 (5.3)	0.0165 (7.9)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aaron Sanchez	0.0083	0.0182	5.5
2	Julio Teheran	0.0107	0.0186	5.4
3	Pablo López	0.0118	0.0235	5.1
4	Gerrit Cole	0.0090	0.0037	5.0
5	Aaron Brooks	0.0097	0.0207	5.0
6	Tyler Clippard	0.0083	0.0290	4.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Max Fried	0.0157	0.0071	6.6
2	Jorge López	0.0069	0.0182	5.7
3	Masahiro Tanaka	0.0093	0.0026	5.7
4	José Berríos	0.0163	0.0107	5.4
5	Aaron Brooks	0.0089	0.0207	5.3
6	Marcus Stroman	0.0071	0.0013	5.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aaron Brooks	0.0073	0.0207	5.9
2	Marcus Stroman	0.0076	0.0013	5.8
3	Julio Teheran	0.0103	0.0186	5.4
4	Gerrit Cole	0.0090	0.0037	5.3
5	Pablo López	0.0110	0.0235	5.3
6	Masahiro Tanaka	0.0083	0.0026	5.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aaron Sanchez	0.0070	0.0182	6.5
2	Julio Teheran	0.0110	0.0186	5.3
3	Vince Velasquez	0.0069	0.0174	5.2
4	José Berríos	0.0164	0.0107	5.2
5	Tyler Clippard	0.0078	0.0290	5.0
6	Max Fried	0.0138	0.0071	5.0

Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Spencer Turnbull	0.0078	0.0122	0.0244	10.3	7.5	2.9
2	Jakob Junis	0.0178	0.0152	0.0143	3.3	1.3	2.0
3	Max Fried	0.0157	0.0129	0.0071	6.6	4.6	2.0
4	Griffin Canning	0.0106	0.0158	0.0208	3.6	1.6	2.0
5	Jorge López	0.0069	0.0103	0.0182	5.7	3.9	1.8
6	Aníbal Sánchez	0.0091	0.0068	0.0056	3.1	1.4	1.7
7	Masahiro Tanaka	0.0093	0.0072	0.0026	5.7	4.1	1.6
8	Cole Hamels	0.0171	0.0145	0.0113	4.1	2.4	1.6
9	Mike Fiers	0.0134	0.0113	0.0119	1.8	0.1	1.6
10	Lucas Giolito	0.0163	0.0142	0.0057	8.1	6.6	1.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Griffin Canning	0.0101	0.0158	0.0208	3.7	1.6	2.0
2	Chris Sale	0.0135	0.0162	0.0212	4.0	2.6	1.5
3	Marcus Stroman	0.0076	0.0063	0.0013	5.8	4.5	1.3
4	Mike Minor	0.0093	0.0081	0.0081	2.0	0.7	1.3
5	Clayton Kershaw	0.0059	0.0045	0.0028	3.0	1.7	1.3
6	Noah Syndergaard	0.0083	0.0071	0.0073	1.8	0.6	1.2
7	Hyun Jin Ryu	0.0079	0.0066	0.0055	2.6	1.4	1.2
8	Patrick Corbin	0.0073	0.0063	0.0036	4.1	2.9	1.2
9	Zack Greinke	0.0062	0.0051	0.0049	1.9	0.8	1.2
10	Martín Pérez	0.0075	0.0064	0.0041	3.4	2.3	1.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Charlie Morton	0.0202	0.0176	0.0152	4.3	2.6	1.8
2	Jacob deGrom	0.0037	0.0051	0.0087	3.6	2.2	1.4
3	Lucas Giolito	0.0165	0.0142	0.0057	7.9	6.6	1.3
4	José Berríos	0.0164	0.0146	0.0107	5.2	3.9	1.3
5	Trevor Cahill	0.0161	0.0130	0.0132	1.5	0.3	1.2
6	Jack Flaherty	0.0139	0.0120	0.0091	4.0	2.9	1.1
7	Trent Thornton	0.0128	0.0109	0.0074	4.0	2.9	1.1
8	Shane Bieber	0.0101	0.0085	0.0070	3.0	2.0	1.1
9	Sean Newcomb	0.0015	0.0047	0.0102	2.4	1.4	1.1
10	Mike Leake	0.0072	0.0080	0.0120	3.7	2.6	1.0

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Zack Greinke	0.0357	0.0455 (16.4)	0.0469 (15.8)	0.0429 (13.1)	0.0481 (19.6)
Corbin Burnes	0.1172	0.0440 (14.8)	0.0462 (14.8)	0.0457 (14.7)	0.0423 (14.8)
Jeff Hoffman	0.1005	0.0465 (13.7)	0.0430 (15.5)	0.0504 (13.0)	0.0427 (14.5)
Jake Odorizzi	0.0378	0.0527 (16.7)	0.0507 (13.9)	0.0589 (19.8)	0.0465 (13.5)
Caleb Smith	0.0801	0.0468 (14.7)	0.0494 (14.4)	0.0477 (15.2)	0.0460 (14.4)
Hyun Jin Ryu	0.0320	0.0470 (18.4)	0.0498 (18.9)	0.0422 (13.9)	0.0517 (22.8)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Edwin Díaz	0.0451	0.1163	15.4
2	Chris Archer	0.0392	0.0772	14.5
3	Julio Teheran	0.0531	0.0444	14.4
4	José Quijada	0.0324	0.1429	14.4
5	Marco Gonzales	0.0411	0.0350	14.3
6	Matthew Boyd	0.0516	0.0793	13.6
7	Josh Hader	0.0607	0.1181	13.6
8	Brandon Workman	0.0442	0.0074	13.5
9	Lance Lynn	0.0421	0.0374	13.3
10	Jason Vargas	0.0561	0.0461	13.3

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Drew Smyly	0.0511	0.0950	18.2
2	Matthew Boyd	0.0485	0.0793	17.7
3	Josh Hader	0.0488	0.1181	17.6
4	Jhoulys Chacín	0.0358	0.0786	16.2
5	CC Sabathia	0.0433	0.0846	15.5
6	Trevor Bauer	0.0360	0.0610	15.3
7	Edwin Díaz	0.0479	0.1163	15.3
8	David Hess	0.0557	0.1057	15.2
9	Charlie Morton	0.0415	0.0312	14.7
10	Brandon Workman	0.0493	0.0074	14.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Edwin Díaz	0.0372	0.1163	17.8
2	Josh Hader	0.0516	0.1181	16.7
3	Marco Gonzales	0.0440	0.0350	15.6
4	Chris Archer	0.0392	0.0772	15.3
5	Yu Darvish	0.0463	0.0759	15.1
6	Michael Soroka	0.0394	0.0274	14.7
7	Drew Smyly	0.0590	0.0950	13.9
8	Brandon Workman	0.0462	0.0074	13.6
9	Eduardo Rodriguez	0.0494	0.0426	13.6
10	José Quijada	0.0404	0.1429	13.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jason Vargas	0.0647	0.0461	19.7
2	Matthew Boyd	0.0459	0.0793	17.0
3	Trevor Bauer	0.0318	0.0610	15.9
4	Homer Bailey	0.0539	0.0429	15.9
5	Julio Teheran	0.0537	0.0444	15.8
6	José Quijada	0.0242	0.1429	15.4
7	Chris Sale	0.0344	0.0698	14.4
8	CC Sabathia	0.0427	0.0846	14.1
9	Jaime Barria	0.0415	0.0920	14.1
10	Chris Archer	0.0392	0.0772	13.8

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Joey Lucchesi	0.0559	0.0422	0.0489	10.5	2.6	7.9
2	Reynaldo López	0.0432	0.0534	0.0617	8.3	1.7	6.6
3	Merrill Kelly	0.0539	0.0439	0.0518	8.1	2.0	6.1
4	Drew Smyly	0.0511	0.0606	0.0950	18.2	12.3	6.0
5	Miles Mikolas	0.0307	0.0364	0.0469	6.0	0.0	5.9
6	Yonny Chirinos	0.0359	0.0443	0.0597	8.2	2.7	5.6
7	Sandy Alcantara	0.0444	0.0358	0.0385	12.0	6.5	5.5
8	Kyle Freeland	0.0335	0.0422	0.0708	13.7	8.6	5.1
9	Noah Syndergaard	0.0273	0.0311	0.0423	5.5	0.6	4.9
10	Vince Velasquez	0.0477	0.0544	0.0778	11.2	6.7	4.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Merrill Kelly	0.0539	0.0439	0.0518	8.6	2.0	6.6
2	Chris Paddack	0.0412	0.0463	0.0608	6.1	2.3	3.8
3	Elieser Hernández	0.0496	0.0579	0.0858	9.6	6.2	3.5
4	Reynaldo López	0.0590	0.0534	0.0617	5.0	1.7	3.3
5	Robbie Ray	0.0471	0.0498	0.0709	11.2	7.9	3.2
6	Josh Hader	0.0516	0.0607	0.1181	16.7	13.6	3.1
7	Jake Odorizzi	0.0589	0.0527	0.0378	19.8	16.7	3.1
8	Gregory Soto	0.0480	0.0345	0.0455	3.2	0.1	3.0
9	José Leclerc	0.0476	0.0339	0.0455	3.3	0.3	3.0
10	Tyler Beede	0.0384	0.0425	0.0613	7.3	4.3	2.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jason Vargas	0.0647	0.0561	0.0461	19.7	13.3	6.4
2	Homer Bailey	0.0539	0.0477	0.0429	15.9	10.6	5.2
3	Yusei Kikuchi	0.0394	0.0476	0.0656	10.4	5.4	5.0
4	Anthony DeSclafani	0.0611	0.0560	0.0609	8.3	3.9	4.5
5	Hyun Jin Ryu	0.0517	0.0470	0.0320	22.8	18.4	4.3
6	Trevor Bauer	0.0318	0.0376	0.0610	15.9	11.8	4.1
7	Adrian Houser	0.0546	0.0473	0.0462	9.3	5.3	4.0
8	José Leclerc	0.0200	0.0339	0.0455	4.1	0.3	3.8
9	Gregory Soto	0.0205	0.0345	0.0455	3.6	0.1	3.5
10	Jake Arrieta	0.0514	0.0469	0.0493	8.2	4.8	3.5

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jack Flaherty	0.2423	0.2860 (36.3)	0.2756 (26.8)	0.2896 (37.1)	0.2825 (35.4)
Chris Paddack	0.2366	0.2923 (33.4)	0.2962 (34.6)	0.2917 (31.7)	0.2928 (35.1)
Justin Verlander	0.2181	0.2735 (49.6)	0.2752 (49.5)	0.2832 (55.7)	0.2643 (43.9)
Mitch Keller	0.4748	0.2964 (39.8)	0.2962 (40.2)	0.3030 (38.8)	0.2900 (40.7)
Kenta Maeda	0.2434	0.2878 (29.7)	0.2979 (34.9)	0.2876 (28.1)	0.2879 (31.3)
Yimi García	0.1712	0.2872 (29.4)	0.3010 (32.4)	0.2825 (27.7)	0.2917 (31.1)
Mike Fiers	0.2537	0.2872 (27.7)	0.2873 (26.4)	0.2920 (29.4)	0.2824 (25.9)
Corbin Burnes	0.4141	0.2926 (27.8)	0.2742 (32.5)	0.2994 (26.8)	0.2857 (28.8)
Yonny Chirinos	0.2459	0.2916 (26.0)	0.2975 (28.1)	0.2948 (26.3)	0.2885 (25.6)
Jeff Samardzija	0.2398	0.2897 (39.3)	0.2931 (40.5)	0.2919 (39.0)	0.2875 (39.5)
Max Scherzer	0.3214	0.2780 (27.9)	0.2646 (38.4)	0.2825 (26.5)	0.2735 (29.3)
Jon Lester	0.3469	0.2889 (41.9)	0.2919 (40.9)	0.2960 (38.4)	0.2819 (45.3)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Sonny Gray	0.2933	0.2555	29.0
2	Luke Jackson	0.2976	0.3860	26.8
3	John Means	0.2926	0.2556	25.7
4	Brandon Workman	0.2938	0.2090	25.2
5	Aníbal Sánchez	0.2970	0.2652	24.9
6	Blake Snell	0.2834	0.3431	24.9
7	Edwin Jackson	0.2866	0.3628	24.5
8	Junior Guerra	0.2856	0.2176	24.5

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Sonny Gray	0.3000	0.2555	32.5
2	Reynaldo López	0.2753	0.3158	31.6
3	John Means	0.3026	0.2556	30.9
4	Blake Snell	0.2747	0.3431	29.5
5	Brett Anderson	0.3148	0.2776	28.7
6	Edwin Jackson	0.2769	0.3628	28.4
7	Tommy Milone	0.3122	0.2516	28.1
8	Shane Bieber	0.3274	0.2964	27.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Sonny Gray	0.3054	0.2555	35.8
2	Luke Jackson	0.2975	0.3860	27.6
3	Luis Castillo	0.2959	0.2617	27.2
4	Junior Guerra	0.2942	0.2176	26.6
5	Dakota Hudson	0.3069	0.2738	25.6
6	Reynaldo López	0.2839	0.3158	25.2
7	Brandon Workman	0.2947	0.2090	24.7
8	Tyler Webb	0.2917	0.1844	23.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	John Means	0.2988	0.2556	31.1
2	Aníbal Sánchez	0.2994	0.2652	28.4
3	Jose Quintana	0.2849	0.3257	26.2
4	Cole Hamels	0.2667	0.3147	26.2
5	Blake Snell	0.2784	0.3431	26.0
6	Luke Jackson	0.2978	0.3860	26.0
7	Caleb Smith	0.2851	0.2507	25.9
8	Brandon Workman	0.2928	0.2090	25.6

Most Unique Misses for BABIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Shane Bieber	0.3274	0.2996	0.2964	27.9	5.5	22.4
2	Homer Bailey	0.3245	0.2971	0.3006	17.6	0.2	17.4
3	Walker Buehler	0.2702	0.2876	0.2904	13.8	0.3	13.5
4	Marco Gonzales	0.3163	0.3002	0.2950	19.7	7.3	12.4
5	Matt Strahm	0.2683	0.2893	0.3113	20.3	9.1	11.1
6	Max Scherzer	0.2646	0.2780	0.3214	38.4	27.9	10.5
7	Miles Mikolas	0.2833	0.2951	0.3024	13.5	3.1	10.4
8	Glenn Sparkman	0.3161	0.2978	0.2991	11.2	1.2	10.0
9	Mike Minor	0.2714	0.2863	0.2867	12.0	2.4	9.6
10	Trevor Williams	0.2814	0.2942	0.3034	13.1	3.8	9.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Julio Teheran	0.2909	0.2768	0.2664	19.0	10.3	8.7
2	Zack Greinke	0.2985	0.2861	0.2711	22.8	14.8	8.0
3	Sonny Gray	0.3054	0.2933	0.2555	35.8	29.0	6.8
4	Dakota Hudson	0.3069	0.2958	0.2738	25.6	19.1	6.5
5	Justin Verlander	0.2832	0.2735	0.2181	55.7	49.6	6.1
6	Kyle Hendricks	0.2982	0.2880	0.2865	9.1	3.4	5.6
7	Clayton Kershaw	0.2925	0.2821	0.2623	21.8	16.2	5.6
8	Eric Lauer	0.2898	0.2950	0.3158	16.4	11.5	5.0
9	Luis Castillo	0.2959	0.2871	0.2617	27.2	22.4	4.9
10	Drew Smyly	0.2873	0.2939	0.3082	10.4	5.7	4.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Cole Hamels	0.2667	0.2822	0.3147	26.2	18.1	8.1
2	Trevor Williams	0.2813	0.2942	0.3034	10.4	3.8	6.6
3	Jake Arrieta	0.2754	0.2878	0.3160	20.8	14.9	5.9
4	John Means	0.2988	0.2926	0.2556	31.1	25.7	5.5
5	Adam Plutko	0.2947	0.2858	0.2801	9.3	4.1	5.2
6	Dallas Keuchel	0.2807	0.2931	0.2982	5.8	0.9	4.9
7	Michael Pineda	0.3115	0.3060	0.2921	15.0	10.3	4.8
8	Zach Plesac	0.2962	0.2887	0.2554	22.1	17.4	4.7
9	Aaron Sanchez	0.2846	0.2946	0.3197	17.8	13.2	4.5
10	Asher Wojciechowski	0.2981	0.2882	0.2775	9.5	5.0	4.4

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Justin Verlander	0.1425	0.2735 (47.5)	0.2058 (52.3)	0.2832 (54.0)	0.2643 (43.0)
Robert Stephenson	0.1149	0.2896 (26.2)	0.2143 (25.7)	0.2854 (24.5)	0.2939 (28.3)
Yimi García	0.1027	0.2872 (27.1)	0.2233 (29.4)	0.2825 (25.4)	0.2917 (29.1)
Corbin Burnes	0.3281	0.2926 (25.9)	0.2016 (30.1)	0.2994 (24.8)	0.2857 (26.6)
Eduardo Rodriguez	0.2574	0.2920 (34.6)	0.2210 (32.5)	0.2911 (37.1)	0.2929 (30.5)
Jeff Samardzija	0.1760	0.2897 (28.7)	0.2138 (26.9)	0.2919 (28.8)	0.2875 (30.0)
Caleb Smith	0.1689	0.2843 (26.2)	0.2080 (24.3)	0.2834 (24.3)	0.2851 (29.3)
Aníbal Sánchez	0.1822	0.2970 (28.4)	0.2278 (31.4)	0.2945 (25.2)	0.2994 (32.9)
Blake Snell	0.2678	0.2834 (26.1)	0.2000 (30.5)	0.2888 (24.7)	0.2784 (26.6)
Tommy Milone	0.1548	0.2937 (29.0)	0.2381 (37.1)	0.2880 (25.5)	0.2994 (33.3)
Luke Jackson	0.3333	0.2976 (34.8)	0.2329 (32.1)	0.2975 (35.5)	0.2978 (33.6)
Jon Lester	0.2694	0.2889 (42.3)	0.2266 (33.8)	0.2960 (38.4)	0.2819 (44.6)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Zack Wheeler	0.2905	0.2504	28.8
2	Max Fried	0.2977	0.2632	28.3
3	Jake Arrieta	0.2878	0.2593	27.5
4	John Means	0.2926	0.1756	26.9
5	Trevor Bauer	0.2937	0.1912	25.1
6	Mitch Keller	0.2964	0.3309	24.8
7	Ian Kennedy	0.2839	0.3018	24.7
8	Drew Pomeranz	0.2900	0.2691	24.6

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Minor	0.1829	0.2366	47.6
2	Jake Arrieta	0.2071	0.2593	31.8
3	Iván Nova	0.2143	0.2492	29.3
4	Trevor Bauer	0.2238	0.1912	28.3
5	Mitch Keller	0.2179	0.3309	26.0
6	Ian Kennedy	0.2064	0.3018	25.7
7	Joe Musgrove	0.2281	0.1911	25.5
8	Chris Paddack	0.2179	0.1746	23.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Merrill Kelly	0.2179	0.2128	55.8
2	Max Fried	0.3011	0.2632	27.4
3	Zack Wheeler	0.2953	0.2504	26.6
4	Joe Musgrove	0.3038	0.1911	25.8
5	Drew Pomeranz	0.2929	0.2691	24.2
6	Ian Kennedy	0.2882	0.3018	24.1
7	Sonny Gray	0.3054	0.1946	23.9
8	Mitch Keller	0.3030	0.3309	23.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Homer Bailey	0.2179	0.2431	66.9
2	John Means	0.2988	0.1756	33.3
3	Jake Arrieta	0.2754	0.2593	32.6
4	Cole Hamels	0.2667	0.2437	29.6
5	Zack Wheeler	0.2860	0.2504	29.3
6	Trevor Bauer	0.2939	0.1912	28.8
7	Max Fried	0.2943	0.2632	28.0
8	Chris Paddack	0.2928	0.1746	26.8

Most Unique Misses for Single Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Minor	0.1829	0.2863	0.2366	47.6	21.7	25.9
2	Max Scherzer	0.1850	0.2780	0.2117	19.5	6.0	13.6
3	Jake Odorizzi	0.1926	0.2837	0.2260	23.0	11.3	11.7
4	Antonio Senzatela	0.2083	0.3000	0.2394	19.0	8.3	10.6
5	Adrian Houser	0.2065	0.3002	0.2388	15.6	6.2	9.4
6	Nick Pivetta	0.2470	0.2983	0.2230	9.5	0.2	9.3
7	Marco Gonzales	0.2372	0.3002	0.2114	21.1	12.1	9.1
8	Dereck Rodríguez	0.1821	0.2880	0.2071	11.6	2.6	9.0
9	Danny Duffy	0.2333	0.2919	0.2055	14.6	6.4	8.2
10	Freddy Peralta	0.1903	0.2853	0.2394	19.3	11.1	8.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Merrill Kelly	0.2179	0.2983	0.2128	55.8	8.2	47.6
2	Nick Ramirez	0.2179	0.2928	0.2026	21.5	5.3	16.1
3	Julio Teheran	0.2909	0.2768	0.1924	16.3	7.2	9.1
4	Zack Greinke	0.2985	0.2861	0.2025	15.5	7.1	8.4
5	Sonny Gray	0.3054	0.2933	0.1946	23.9	16.8	7.1
6	Trevor Williams	0.3071	0.2942	0.2022	17.8	10.9	6.9
7	Dakota Hudson	0.3069	0.2958	0.2004	22.4	15.5	6.9
8	Justin Verlander	0.2832	0.2735	0.1425	54.0	47.5	6.5
9	Kyle Hendricks	0.2982	0.2880	0.2077	10.0	4.0	6.0
10	Clayton Kershaw	0.2925	0.2821	0.2040	8.2	2.2	5.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Homer Bailey	0.2179	0.2971	0.2431	66.9	14.5	52.4
2	Nick Margevicius	0.2179	0.2908	0.2193	19.0	0.9	18.2
3	Brendan McKay	0.2179	0.2916	0.2132	14.3	0.8	13.6
4	Josh A. Smith	0.2179	0.2898	0.2472	13.9	4.5	9.4
5	Randy Dobnak	0.2179	0.2964	0.2674	14.2	5.4	8.8
6	Pete Fairbanks	0.2179	0.3013	0.2321	8.4	0.6	7.9
7	Pedro Payano	0.2179	0.2920	0.2388	9.5	2.2	7.2
8	Cole Hamels	0.2667	0.2822	0.2437	29.6	22.4	7.2
9	Parker Markel	0.2179	0.2982	0.2167	7.7	0.7	6.9
10	John Means	0.2988	0.2926	0.1756	33.3	26.9	6.4

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Homer Bailey	0.0512	0.0000 (14.2)	0.0792 (21.8)	0.0000 (13.9)	0.0717 (63.1)
Mike Fiers	0.0354	0.0000 (27.2)	0.0668 (26.1)	0.0000 (26.9)	0.0000 (26.2)
Max Scherzer	0.1097	0.0000 (26.5)	0.0726 (23.4)	0.0000 (26.8)	0.0000 (27.4)
Stephen Strasburg	0.0500	0.0000 (18.1)	0.0722 (21.5)	0.0000 (17.7)	0.0000 (17.0)
Mike Minor	0.0502	0.0000 (18.4)	0.0796 (28.3)	0.0000 (18.0)	0.0000 (17.3)
Jeff Samardzija	0.0464	0.0000 (18.6)	0.0655 (16.6)	0.0000 (18.2)	0.0000 (17.6)
Justin Anderson	0.1356	0.0000 (13.9)	0.0504 (17.8)	0.0000 (14.0)	0.0000 (14.2)
Michael Soroka	0.0423	0.0000 (20.5)	0.0822 (30.3)	0.0000 (20.2)	0.0000 (19.6)
Joe Musgrove	0.0976	0.0000 (18.7)	0.0643 (21.5)	0.0000 (19.0)	0.0000 (19.7)
Wade Miley	0.0509	0.0000 (14.8)	0.0680 (14.7)	0.0000 (14.5)	0.0000 (13.9)
Wilmer Font	0.1226	0.0000 (18.2)	0.0633 (20.0)	0.0000 (18.4)	0.0000 (18.7)
Adrian Sampson	0.0979	0.0000 (14.9)	0.0591 (20.0)	0.0000 (15.1)	0.0000 (15.6)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Actual	Error
1	Brad Keller	0.0385	23.4
2	Sonny Gray	0.0511	14.5
3	Jack Flaherty	0.0529	14.4
4	Dallas Keuchel	0.0422	14.3
5	Clayton Kershaw	0.0516	14.1
6	Darwinzon Hernández	0.1667	14.0
7	Eduardo Rodriguez	0.0556	13.7
8	Nick Kingham	0.1243	13.7

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Shane Bieber	0.0973	0.0707	25.7
2	Brett Anderson	0.0833	0.0569	22.1
3	Sonny Gray	0.0769	0.0511	20.6
4	David Price	0.0636	0.1000	15.2
5	Robbie Ray	0.0604	0.0840	15.1
6	Kenta Maeda	0.0760	0.0556	14.8
7	Adrian Houser	0.0761	0.0484	14.3
8	Chris Sale	0.0674	0.0938	14.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Merrill Kelly	0.0717	0.0716	55.3
2	Nick Ramirez	0.0717	0.0705	25.1
3	Brad Keller	0.0000	0.0385	23.1
4	Sonny Gray	0.0000	0.0511	14.2
5	Dallas Keuchel	0.0000	0.0422	14.1
6	Jack Flaherty	0.0000	0.0529	14.1
7	Darwinzon Hernández	0.0000	0.1667	14.1
8	Chris Sale	0.0000	0.0938	13.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Zach Plesac	0.0717	0.0769	30.8
2	Brad Keller	0.0000	0.0385	22.4
3	Chris Sale	0.0000	0.0938	14.4
4	Darwinzon Hernández	0.0000	0.1667	14.2
5	Nick Kingham	0.0000	0.1243	14.0
6	Dylan Bundy	0.0000	0.0899	13.8
7	David Price	0.0000	0.1000	13.7
8	Dallas Keuchel	0.0000	0.0422	13.6

Most Unique Misses for Double Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Shane Bieber	0.0973	0.0707	25.7	0.7	25.0
2	Brett Anderson	0.0833	0.0569	22.1	10.9	11.2
3	Mike Minor	0.0796	0.0502	28.3	18.4	9.9
4	Michael Soroka	0.0822	0.0423	30.3	20.5	9.8
5	Kyle Hendricks	0.0556	0.0750	11.8	2.5	9.2
6	Tanner Roark	0.0571	0.0763	11.5	3.4	8.0
7	Homer Bailey	0.0792	0.0512	21.8	14.2	7.6
8	Zach Eflin	0.0785	0.0688	9.1	1.9	7.2
9	Lance Lynn	0.0605	0.0776	12.1	5.3	6.8
10	Jakob Junis	0.0599	0.0730	7.6	1.1	6.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Merrill Kelly	0.0717	0.0716	55.3	0.0	55.3
2	Nick Ramirez	0.0717	0.0705	25.1	0.4	24.8
3	Danny Hultzen	0.0717	0.0000	2.6	1.3	1.3
4	Trevor Bauer	0.0000	0.0822	10.1	9.7	0.4
5	Lance Lynn	0.0000	0.0776	5.7	5.3	0.4
6	Marco Gonzales	0.0000	0.0789	6.7	6.4	0.4
7	Madison Bumgarner	0.0000	0.0735	2.0	1.6	0.4
8	Sandy Alcantara	0.0000	0.0748	3.1	2.7	0.4
9	Patrick Corbin	0.0000	0.0740	2.4	2.1	0.4
10	Gerrit Cole	0.0000	0.0730	1.6	1.2	0.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Homer Bailey	0.0717	0.0512	63.1	14.2	48.9
2	Zach Plesac	0.0717	0.0769	30.8	2.6	28.3
3	Josh A. Smith	0.0717	0.0449	13.5	3.7	9.8
4	Randy Dobnak	0.0717	0.0349	12.6	4.3	8.3
5	Jandel Gustave	0.0717	0.0533	8.8	1.8	7.0
6	José Rodríguez	0.0717	0.0182	10.4	4.5	5.9
7	JD Hammer	0.0717	0.0556	7.0	1.3	5.7
8	Zac Grotz	0.0717	0.0652	5.6	0.5	5.1
9	Eric Yardley	0.0717	0.0250	6.1	2.4	3.7
10	Taylor Guilbeau	0.0717	0.0000	7.2	3.6	3.6

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Gio Gonzalez	0.0248	0.0000 (6.7)	0.0022 (8.4)	0.0000 (6.7)	0.0000 (6.7)
Justin Verlander	0.0151	0.0000 (7.2)	0.0067 (7.5)	0.0000 (7.3)	0.0000 (7.3)
Kyle Freeland	0.0213	0.0000 (7.0)	0.0077 (6.7)	0.0000 (7.0)	0.0000 (7.0)
Jimmy Nelson	0.0536	0.0000 (4.9)	0.0047 (5.2)	0.0000 (4.9)	0.0000 (4.9)
Chase Anderson	0.0155	0.0000 (5.3)	0.0048 (6.6)	0.0000 (5.3)	0.0000 (5.3)
Iván Nova	0.0000	0.0000 (5.3)	0.0084 (6.4)	0.0000 (5.3)	0.0000 (5.2)
Nick Pivetta	0.0186	0.0000 (5.0)	0.0071 (5.0)	0.0000 (5.1)	0.0000 (5.1)
Trevor Bauer	0.0134	0.0000 (6.2)	0.0070 (6.2)	0.0000 (6.2)	0.0000 (6.3)
Mike Minor	0.0000	0.0000 (5.7)	0.0088 (7.3)	0.0000 (5.7)	0.0000 (5.6)
Dakota Hudson	0.0000	0.0000 (5.0)	0.0090 (6.5)	0.0000 (5.0)	0.0000 (4.9)
Brad Keller	0.0203	0.0000 (9.7)	0.0059 (10.5)	0.0000 (9.7)	0.0000 (9.8)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Actual	Error
1	Jeff Samardzija	0.0174	8.0
2	Jordan Zimmermann	0.0188	6.2
3	Scott Barlow	0.0233	5.2
4	Adrian Sampson	0.0155	5.0
5	Charlie Morton	0.0129	5.0
6	Martín Pérez	0.0000	4.9
7	Hyun Jin Ryu	0.0000	4.8
8	Zach Eflin	0.0000	4.6
9	Max Fried	0.0000	4.6

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Domingo Germán	0.0125	0.0000	7.2
2	Walker Buehler	0.0031	0.0109	6.1
3	Aaron Brooks	0.0000	0.0119	6.0
4	Sonny Gray	0.0026	0.0097	5.4
5	Robbie Ray	0.0060	0.0127	5.3
6	David Phelps	0.0000	0.0341	5.1
7	Yu Darvish	0.0040	0.0100	4.7
8	Max Scherzer	0.0070	0.0000	4.6
9	Mychal Givens	0.0054	0.0226	4.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Actual	Error
1	Jeff Samardzija	0.0174	8.0
2	Jordan Zimmermann	0.0188	6.2
3	Scott Barlow	0.0233	5.2
4	Adrian Sampson	0.0155	5.0
5	Charlie Morton	0.0129	5.0
6	Martín Pérez	0.0000	4.8
7	Hyun Jin Ryu	0.0000	4.7
8	Zach Eflin	0.0000	4.6
9	Robbie Ray	0.0127	4.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jeff Samardzija	0.0000	0.0174	8.1
2	Jordan Zimmermann	0.0000	0.0188	6.2
3	Scott Barlow	0.0000	0.0233	5.2
4	Adrian Sampson	0.0000	0.0155	5.1
5	Charlie Morton	0.0000	0.0129	5.1
6	Martín Pérez	0.0000	0.0000	4.8
7	Hyun Jin Ryu	0.0000	0.0000	4.7
8	Robbie Ray	0.0000	0.0127	4.7
9	Homer Bailey	0.0066	0.0064	4.6

Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	John Means	0.0132	0.0067	3.9	0.0	3.8
2	Masahiro Tanaka	0.0024	0.0074	4.1	0.6	3.5
3	Aaron Brooks	0.0000	0.0119	6.0	2.6	3.4
4	Domingo Germán	0.0125	0.0000	7.2	3.9	3.3
5	Sonny Gray	0.0026	0.0097	5.4	2.2	3.2
6	Walker Buehler	0.0031	0.0109	6.1	3.2	2.9
7	Wander Suero	0.0148	0.0000	4.3	2.0	2.3
8	Yu Darvish	0.0040	0.0100	4.7	2.5	2.2
9	Dereck Rodríguez	0.0119	0.0065	2.2	0.1	2.2
10	Ryan Yarbrough	0.0033	0.0075	2.6	0.5	2.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Merrill Kelly	0.0066	0.0075	4.4	0.7	3.6
2	Danny Hultzen	0.0066	0.0000	0.2	0.1	0.1
3	Trevor Bauer	0.0000	0.0134	6.2	6.2	0.0
4	Lance Lynn	0.0000	0.0111	4.0	3.9	0.0
5	Justin Verlander	0.0000	0.0151	7.3	7.2	0.0
6	Madison Bumgarner	0.0000	0.0090	2.0	2.0	0.0
7	Stephen Strasburg	0.0000	0.0100	2.9	2.9	0.0
8	Noah Syndergaard	0.0000	0.0074	0.7	0.6	0.0
9	Charlie Morton	0.0000	0.0129	5.0	5.0	0.0
10	Rick Porcello	0.0000	0.0092	2.0	2.0	0.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Homer Bailey	0.0066	0.0064	4.6	0.1	4.5
2	Zach Plesac	0.0066	0.0062	3.3	0.2	3.1
3	Nick Margevicius	0.0066	0.0053	2.0	0.3	1.7
4	Brendan McKay	0.0066	0.0074	1.2	0.2	1.1
5	Josh A. Smith	0.0066	0.0000	1.8	0.9	0.9
6	Randy Dobnak	0.0066	0.0000	1.5	0.8	0.8
7	Parker Markel	0.0066	0.0000	1.4	0.7	0.7
8	Pedro Payano	0.0066	0.0000	1.3	0.7	0.7
9	Jandel Gustave	0.0066	0.0000	1.3	0.7	0.6
10	Pete Fairbanks	0.0066	0.0000	1.3	0.7	0.6

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jack Flaherty	0.0803	0.1032 (25.0)	0.1073 (27.5)	0.1052 (25.4)	0.1011 (24.8)
Kyle Freeland	0.1797	0.1233 (22.1)	0.0964 (35.3)	0.1259 (21.7)	0.1208 (22.5)
Edwin Jackson	0.2411	0.1318 (33.5)	0.1228 (36.8)	0.1388 (31.7)	0.1248 (35.3)
Corbin Burnes	0.2213	0.1150 (22.7)	0.1058 (25.1)	0.1232 (21.2)	0.1068 (24.2)
Hyun Jin Ryu	0.0733	0.1079 (32.0)	0.1028 (27.6)	0.1068 (30.0)	0.1090 (34.0)
Michael Soroka	0.0799	0.1077 (26.2)	0.1196 (33.9)	0.1163 (31.2)	0.0991 (21.4)
Sonny Gray	0.0833	0.1130 (27.8)	0.1235 (34.6)	0.1119 (25.9)	0.1141 (29.8)
Lucas Giolito	0.0979	0.1356 (33.4)	0.1397 (35.6)	0.1407 (35.9)	0.1305 (31.0)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Minor	0.1238	0.0997	29.1
2	John Means	0.1422	0.1068	28.7
3	Jake Odorizzi	0.1272	0.0988	25.0
4	Chris Sale	0.0810	0.1307	24.5
5	Lance Lynn	0.1198	0.1017	24.2
6	Zack Greinke	0.1093	0.0901	23.3
7	Mike Clevinger	0.1097	0.0762	21.5
8	Justin Verlander	0.0934	0.0779	21.2
9	Julio Teheran	0.1259	0.1074	21.2
10	Gerrit Cole	0.0967	0.0808	20.9

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Homer Bailey	0.1486	0.1207	25.5
2	Dereck Rodríguez	0.1020	0.1686	25.4
3	Gerrit Cole	0.1032	0.0808	25.4
4	Shane Bieber	0.1206	0.1001	25.0
5	Brett Anderson	0.1314	0.1077	24.1
6	Dan Straily	0.1149	0.2246	23.8
7	Marcus Stroman	0.1212	0.0995	23.5
8	Liam Hendriks	0.1162	0.0542	23.4
9	Antonio Senzatela	0.1214	0.1701	23.3
10	Jorge López	0.1211	0.1715	22.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jake Odorizzi	0.1338	0.0988	28.3
2	John Means	0.1423	0.1068	27.7
3	Mike Minor	0.1233	0.0997	27.3
4	Zack Greinke	0.1134	0.0901	25.3
5	Lance Lynn	0.1219	0.1017	24.6
6	Gerrit Cole	0.1028	0.0808	24.5
7	Justin Verlander	0.0988	0.0779	24.4
8	Mike Fiers	0.1320	0.1088	23.5
9	Chris Sale	0.0849	0.1307	23.2
10	Julio Teheran	0.1290	0.1074	22.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Minor	0.1243	0.0997	31.1
2	John Means	0.1422	0.1068	29.8
3	Aníbal Sánchez	0.1346	0.1081	26.9
4	Chris Sale	0.0772	0.1307	25.8
5	Jeff Samardzija	0.1270	0.1054	24.3
6	Trevor Bauer	0.0918	0.1295	24.1
7	Lance Lynn	0.1176	0.1017	23.8
8	Yusei Kikuchi	0.1086	0.1512	22.5
9	Antonio Senzatela	0.1209	0.1701	22.1
10	Jake Odorizzi	0.1205	0.0988	21.8

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Kyle Freeland	0.0964	0.1233	0.1797	35.3	22.1	13.2
2	Reynaldo López	0.1161	0.1293	0.1471	18.1	6.6	11.4
3	Adrian Sampson	0.1223	0.1402	0.1528	12.3	1.7	10.6
4	Shane Bieber	0.1206	0.1078	0.1001	25.0	14.9	10.1
5	Brett Anderson	0.1314	0.1172	0.1077	24.1	14.2	9.9
6	Chris Paddack	0.1257	0.1084	0.1021	18.3	9.0	9.3
7	Jaime Barria	0.1033	0.1262	0.1671	20.1	11.4	8.7
8	Thomas Pannone	0.1151	0.1408	0.1569	10.8	2.1	8.6
9	Trevor Williams	0.1068	0.1190	0.1462	19.6	11.2	8.4
10	Miles Mikolas	0.0979	0.1079	0.1178	8.6	0.2	8.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Michael Soroka	0.1163	0.1077	0.0799	31.2	26.2	4.9
2	Aaron Nola	0.1046	0.0979	0.1068	4.9	0.6	4.3
3	Caleb Smith	0.1113	0.1164	0.1269	4.9	0.6	4.3
4	Miles Mikolas	0.1158	0.1079	0.1178	4.6	0.2	4.3
5	Chris Bassitt	0.1259	0.1173	0.1078	15.9	11.7	4.3
6	Mike Fiers	0.1320	0.1248	0.1088	23.5	19.3	4.2
7	Gerrit Cole	0.1028	0.0967	0.0808	24.5	20.9	3.6
8	Shaun Anderson	0.1163	0.1229	0.1429	7.9	4.4	3.5
9	Gabriel Ynoa	0.1298	0.1354	0.1604	10.8	7.4	3.4
10	Jake Odorizzi	0.1338	0.1272	0.0988	28.3	25.0	3.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jason Vargas	0.1365	0.1280	0.1294	11.9	5.3	6.6
2	Aníbal Sánchez	0.1346	0.1275	0.1081	26.9	20.6	6.3
3	Trent Thornton	0.1303	0.1227	0.1285	8.9	2.5	6.3
4	Max Fried	0.1139	0.1076	0.1140	7.9	2.3	5.7
5	Noah Syndergaard	0.0870	0.0952	0.1224	19.9	14.5	5.4
6	Adrian Houser	0.1411	0.1313	0.1061	21.4	16.1	5.3
7	Elieser Hernández	0.1549	0.1419	0.1388	9.7	4.5	5.2
8	Aaron Sanchez	0.1105	0.1208	0.1521	18.3	13.1	5.2
9	Tyler Beede	0.1380	0.1303	0.1338	8.1	3.2	4.9
10	Yusei Kikuchi	0.1086	0.1170	0.1512	22.5	17.7	4.8

Earned Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jack Flaherty	0.0777	0.0955 (20.2)	0.1022 (25.0)	0.0969 (20.5)	0.0942 (20.1)
John Means	0.0973	0.1335 (28.4)	0.1207 (19.9)	0.1342 (28.1)	0.1329 (28.8)
Marcus Stroman	0.0853	0.1056 (22.2)	0.1105 (25.6)	0.1074 (22.8)	0.1038 (21.8)
Edwin Jackson	0.2143	0.1239 (27.5)	0.1118 (31.8)	0.1305 (25.7)	0.1173 (29.4)
Hyun Jin Ryu	0.0650	0.0995 (31.0)	0.0899 (23.7)	0.0979 (29.1)	0.1011 (33.0)
Sonny Gray	0.0791	0.1042 (23.7)	0.1134 (29.8)	0.1022 (21.5)	0.1062 (26.0)
Lucas Giolito	0.0950	0.1270 (28.5)	0.1322 (31.8)	0.1318 (31.1)	0.1223 (25.9)

Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Minor	0.1156	0.0962	24.0
2	Michael Soroka	0.0995	0.0742	23.6
3	Dakota Hudson	0.1084	0.0859	23.4
4	Jake Odorizzi	0.1197	0.0942	22.3
5	Gerrit Cole	0.0897	0.0722	21.1
6	Chris Sale	0.0748	0.1176	21.1
7	Julio Teheran	0.1177	0.0981	21.0
8	Zack Greinke	0.1015	0.0840	21.0
9	Corbin Burnes	0.1070	0.2043	20.9
10	José Suarez	0.1070	0.1707	20.7

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Kyle Freeland	0.0911	0.1649	31.2
2	Gerrit Cole	0.0979	0.0722	27.3
3	Shane Bieber	0.1146	0.0908	27.2
4	Michael Soroka	0.1043	0.0742	26.6
5	Dan Straily	0.1081	0.2203	24.6
6	Jeff Samardzija	0.1194	0.0959	23.2
7	Corbin Burnes	0.1005	0.2043	22.5
8	Brett Anderson	0.1247	0.1023	22.5
9	Antonio Senzatela	0.1148	0.1598	21.6
10	Liam Hendriks	0.1061	0.0512	20.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Michael Soroka	0.1069	0.0742	28.1
2	Jake Odorizzi	0.1263	0.0942	26.0
3	Gerrit Cole	0.0950	0.0722	24.6
4	Dakota Hudson	0.1099	0.0859	23.8
5	Mike Minor	0.1155	0.0962	23.0
6	Zack Greinke	0.1045	0.0840	22.6
7	Julio Teheran	0.1207	0.0981	22.5
8	Frankie Montas	0.1195	0.0711	22.0
9	José Suarez	0.1083	0.1707	20.6
10	Ty Blach	0.1050	0.2590	20.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Minor	0.1156	0.0962	25.0
2	Aníbal Sánchez	0.1250	0.0997	24.8
3	Jeff Samardzija	0.1182	0.0959	23.5
4	Dakota Hudson	0.1068	0.0859	23.1
5	Corbin Burnes	0.1000	0.2043	22.2
6	Chris Sale	0.0718	0.1176	22.2
7	Antonio Senzatela	0.1126	0.1598	21.9
8	José Suarez	0.1057	0.1707	20.8
9	Dan Straily	0.1252	0.2203	20.2
10	Kyle Freeland	0.1133	0.1649	19.9

Most Unique Misses for Earned Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Shane Bieber	0.1146	0.1002	0.0908	27.2	15.3	11.9
2	Reynaldo López	0.1074	0.1215	0.1360	16.8	4.9	11.9
3	Adrian Sampson	0.1115	0.1315	0.1456	14.8	3.3	11.6
4	Brett Anderson	0.1247	0.1086	0.1023	22.5	10.9	11.6
5	Kyle Freeland	0.0911	0.1149	0.1649	31.2	19.7	11.5
6	David Hess	0.1172	0.1422	0.1726	17.4	8.0	9.4
7	Chris Paddack	0.1164	0.0997	0.0915	18.5	9.4	9.2
8	Miles Mikolas	0.0887	0.0999	0.1113	11.3	2.3	9.0
9	Trevor Williams	0.0977	0.1108	0.1368	19.9	11.2	8.6
10	Wade LeBlanc	0.1060	0.1206	0.1447	16.5	8.4	8.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Trent Thornton	0.1068	0.1139	0.1226	5.7	0.2	5.6
2	Mike Fiers	0.1235	0.1165	0.1061	18.7	14.2	4.5
3	Michael Soroka	0.1069	0.0995	0.0742	28.1	23.6	4.4
4	Caleb Smith	0.1035	0.1087	0.1192	5.4	1.3	4.0
5	Chris Bassitt	0.1171	0.1098	0.0997	15.1	11.3	3.8
6	Jake Odorizzi	0.1263	0.1197	0.0942	26.0	22.3	3.7
7	Gerrit Cole	0.0950	0.0897	0.0722	24.6	21.1	3.5
8	Iván Nova	0.1285	0.1232	0.1216	11.5	8.0	3.5
9	Shaun Anderson	0.1070	0.1139	0.1358	9.2	5.8	3.4
10	Mike Leake	0.1205	0.1154	0.1126	12.8	9.4	3.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jason Vargas	0.1279	0.1195	0.1156	14.2	8.0	6.3
2	Max Fried	0.1061	0.0989	0.1054	7.2	1.3	5.9
3	Aníbal Sánchez	0.1250	0.1184	0.0997	24.8	19.3	5.5
4	Trent Thornton	0.1211	0.1139	0.1226	5.5	0.2	5.3
5	Adrian Houser	0.1312	0.1215	0.0996	19.0	14.0	5.0
6	Tyler Beede	0.1295	0.1214	0.1262	6.7	1.9	4.9
7	Aaron Sanchez	0.1035	0.1124	0.1421	17.6	12.9	4.6
8	Noah Syndergaard	0.0810	0.0877	0.1139	19.3	14.7	4.6
9	Elieser Hernández	0.1437	0.1323	0.1303	8.1	3.7	4.4
10	Yusei Kikuchi	0.1022	0.1095	0.1359	17.4	13.0	4.4

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Marco Gonzales	0.4706	0.3379 (130.1)	0.2381 (169.7)	0.3291 (132.9)	0.3462 (136.8)
Lucas Giolito	0.4828	0.2817 (154.1)	0.2143 (163.5)	0.2628 (163.6)	0.3000 (152.5)
Justin Verlander	0.6176	0.4818 (129.9)	0.3250 (217.0)	0.4634 (140.8)	0.5000 (128.1)
Jordan Lyles	0.4286	0.1315 (188.5)	0.0769 (188.8)	0.1706 (161.7)	0.1026 (215.4)
Domingo Germán	0.6667	0.1838 (297.2)	0.0909 (320.3)	0.1731 (300.3)	0.2000 (297.1)
Eduardo Rodriguez	0.5588	0.3695 (177.7)	0.2432 (239.7)	0.3967 (149.6)	0.3448 (212.6)
Jake Odorizzi	0.5000	0.3072 (138.4)	0.2000 (173.4)	0.3151 (129.6)	0.3000 (153.7)
Lance Lynn	0.4848	0.3453 (137.5)	0.2250 (195.4)	0.3327 (143.7)	0.3571 (141.1)
Dakota Hudson	0.4848	0.2192 (214.3)	0.1304 (240.7)	0.1899 (232.4)	0.2500 (203.2)
Max Fried	0.5152	0.1951 (237.0)	0.1111 (258.0)	0.1656 (253.8)	0.2414 (215.7)
Gerrit Cole	0.6061	0.4299 (158.2)	0.2927 (226.2)	0.4405 (145.1)	0.4194 (179.9)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adam Wainwright	0.2459	0.4516	166.3
2	Chris Sale	0.5194	0.2400	160.3
3	Yu Darvish	0.4017	0.1935	139.4
4	Brandon Woodruff	0.2485	0.5000	132.6
5	Frankie Montas	0.2452	0.5625	131.9
6	Mike Clevinger	0.3807	0.6190	127.7
7	Homer Bailey	0.2613	0.4194	122.2
8	Chris Bassitt	0.1857	0.3571	115.7
9	Zack Greinke	0.4207	0.5455	115.2

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Luis Castillo	0.1951	0.4688	185.2
2	Walker Buehler	0.1795	0.4667	184.8
3	Mike Minor	0.1875	0.4375	184.3
4	Michael Soroka	0.1562	0.4483	179.1
5	John Means	0.0769	0.3871	174.3
6	Homer Bailey	0.1389	0.4194	169.8
7	Hyun Jin Ryu	0.2121	0.4828	169.3
8	Brett Anderson	0.1714	0.4194	157.1
9	Stephen Strasburg	0.3235	0.5455	155.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adam Wainwright	0.2006	0.4516	195.9
2	Chris Sale	0.5215	0.2400	164.9
3	Merrill Kelly	0.2061	0.4062	164.8
4	Zack Greinke	0.3569	0.5455	162.5
5	Chris Bassitt	0.1334	0.3571	144.3
6	Yu Darvish	0.3945	0.1935	138.1
7	Frankie Montas	0.2314	0.5625	135.2
8	Ryan Yarbrough	0.1693	0.3929	132.6
9	Adam Plutko	0.0737	0.3333	125.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Homer Bailey	0.2061	0.4194	171.7
2	Brandon Woodruff	0.1875	0.5000	170.6
3	Chris Sale	0.5172	0.2400	149.1
4	Mike Clevinger	0.3750	0.6190	138.5
5	Brett Anderson	0.2727	0.4194	133.9
6	Frankie Montas	0.2581	0.5625	133.2
7	Yu Darvish	0.4091	0.1935	133.0
8	Walker Buehler	0.3214	0.4667	131.8
9	Adam Wainwright	0.3158	0.4516	126.2

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Michael Soroka	0.1562	0.3605	0.4483	179.1	73.8	105.3
2	Mike Minor	0.1875	0.3611	0.4375	184.3	81.1	103.2
3	Merrill Kelly	0.2061	0.3929	0.4062	127.1	24.0	103.1
4	Walker Buehler	0.1795	0.3711	0.4667	184.8	83.3	101.4
5	Justin Verlander	0.3250	0.4818	0.6176	217.0	129.9	87.1
6	Shane Bieber	0.2432	0.3980	0.4412	138.7	52.1	86.6
7	Luis Castillo	0.1951	0.3587	0.4688	185.2	99.6	85.6
8	Patrick Corbin	0.2381	0.3917	0.4242	125.0	41.8	83.1
9	John Means	0.0769	0.2569	0.3871	174.3	94.1	80.2
10	Jack Flaherty	0.1667	0.3812	0.3333	100.5	23.4	77.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Merrill Kelly	0.2061	0.3929	0.4062	164.8	24.0	140.8
2	Matt Strahm	0.2639	0.1607	0.1304	59.2	6.2	53.0
3	Zack Greinke	0.3569	0.4207	0.5455	162.5	115.2	47.3
4	Jorge López	0.2696	0.1975	0.1026	84.9	42.4	42.5
5	José Suarez	0.3634	0.2682	0.1053	92.3	54.5	37.8
6	Julio Urías	0.2584	0.1616	0.1081	45.1	11.7	33.4
7	Ryan Yarbrough	0.1693	0.2289	0.3929	132.6	102.2	30.5
8	Adam Wainwright	0.2006	0.2459	0.4516	195.9	166.3	29.6
9	Chris Bassitt	0.1334	0.1857	0.3571	144.3	115.7	28.6
10	Trent Thornton	0.0586	0.1058	0.1875	95.4	67.2	28.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Gabriel Ynoa	0.2500	0.0775	0.0278	90.6	15.4	75.1
2	Daniel Norris	0.2917	0.1817	0.0938	100.3	43.0	57.3
3	Zach Plesac	0.2061	0.3029	0.3810	99.0	45.4	53.5
4	Ian Kennedy	0.2917	0.0840	0.0476	56.0	5.0	51.0
5	Luis Perdomo	0.2692	0.0846	0.0426	57.2	7.2	49.9
6	Homer Bailey	0.2061	0.2613	0.4194	171.7	122.2	49.5
7	Robert Stephenson	0.3077	0.1054	0.0526	58.0	9.2	48.8
8	Walker Buehler	0.3214	0.3711	0.4667	131.8	83.3	48.4
9	Francisco Liriano	0.2692	0.0865	0.0725	49.1	1.0	48.1
10	Aníbal Sánchez	0.2400	0.2910	0.3667	114.1	66.3	47.7

Loss Rate

Everybody Missed for Loss Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Trevor Bauer	0.3824	0.2654 (118.9)	0.1795 (148.9)	0.2894 (104.9)	0.2414 (143.4)
Aaron Sanchez	0.5185	0.3150 (131.4)	0.1818 (179.9)	0.3855 (93.9)	0.2500 (172.4)
Chris Sale	0.4400	0.1894 (161.7)	0.1714 (140.2)	0.2061 (156.8)	0.1724 (173.8)
Spencer Turnbull	0.5667	0.2278 (231.2)	0.1481 (248.7)	0.1952 (258.2)	0.2800 (198.9)

Individual Misses for Loss Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brad Keller	0.2817	0.5000	164.4
2	Mike Fiers	0.3333	0.1212	149.6
3	Daniel Norris	0.1860	0.4062	142.7
4	Andrew Cashner	0.4236	0.1905	139.6
5	Zack Greinke	0.3373	0.1515	139.4
6	Trent Thornton	0.1117	0.2812	124.0
7	Glenn Sparkman	0.1730	0.3548	118.5
8	Asher Wojciechowski	0.1605	0.4706	116.9
9	Antonio Senzatela	0.2629	0.4400	111.0
10	Miles Mikolas	0.3080	0.4375	109.3

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brad Keller	0.1429	0.5000	225.3
2	Miles Mikolas	0.1190	0.4375	213.2
3	Sandy Alcantara	0.1481	0.4375	209.4
4	Reynaldo López	0.2143	0.4545	162.5
5	Merrill Kelly	0.2004	0.4375	153.6
6	John Means	0.0769	0.3548	151.9
7	Jakob Junis	0.2195	0.4516	148.6
8	Jordan Zimmermann	0.2500	0.5652	139.0
9	Antonio Senzatela	0.1667	0.4400	136.1
10	Marco Gonzales	0.1905	0.3824	132.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Merrill Kelly	0.2004	0.4375	201.5
2	Mike Fiers	0.3738	0.1212	173.7
3	Daniel Norris	0.1524	0.4062	168.4
4	Trent Thornton	0.0570	0.2812	166.9
5	Zack Greinke	0.3649	0.1515	154.9
6	Andrew Cashner	0.4477	0.1905	149.5
7	Glenn Sparkman	0.1384	0.3548	144.6
8	Asher Wojciechowski	0.1091	0.4706	138.5
9	Michael Soroka	0.3323	0.1379	120.7
10	Gabriel Ynoa	0.0536	0.2778	118.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brad Keller	0.2093	0.5000	217.8
2	Sandy Alcantara	0.2500	0.4375	170.9
3	Antonio Senzatela	0.2000	0.4400	149.3
4	Reynaldo López	0.2903	0.4545	146.2
5	Miles Mikolas	0.2759	0.4375	136.1
6	Jordan Zimmermann	0.3333	0.5652	125.2
7	Andrew Cashner	0.4000	0.1905	122.8
8	Mike Fiers	0.2963	0.1212	119.6
9	Zack Greinke	0.3103	0.1515	115.3
10	Daniel Norris	0.2500	0.4062	105.4

Most Unique Misses for Loss Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	John Means	0.0769	0.3810	0.3548	151.9	8.0	143.9
2	Sandy Alcantara	0.1481	0.3314	0.4375	209.4	100.4	109.1
3	Miles Mikolas	0.1190	0.3080	0.4375	213.2	109.3	103.8
4	Marco Gonzales	0.1905	0.3564	0.3824	132.0	34.3	97.7
5	Mike Minor	0.1458	0.3461	0.3125	109.8	17.2	92.6
6	Merrill Kelly	0.2004	0.3571	0.4375	153.6	73.0	80.6
7	Tyler Beede	0.1333	0.3376	0.4167	127.6	48.5	79.1
8	Lance Lynn	0.2000	0.3374	0.3333	82.2	8.4	73.8
9	Jon Lester	0.1795	0.3272	0.3226	79.2	6.9	72.3
10	Jakob Junis	0.2195	0.3643	0.4516	148.6	77.8	70.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Merrill Kelly	0.2004	0.3571	0.4375	201.5	73.0	128.4
2	Jorge López	0.4089	0.2795	0.2308	85.4	19.3	66.2
3	Adrian Sampson	0.3813	0.2889	0.2286	73.5	26.3	47.2
4	Brandon Woodruff	0.3522	0.2515	0.1364	95.5	50.1	45.4
5	Trent Thornton	0.0570	0.1117	0.2812	166.9	124.0	42.9
6	Robbie Ray	0.3312	0.2664	0.2424	49.7	7.7	42.0
7	Adam Wainwright	0.1961	0.2432	0.3226	110.7	69.3	41.4
8	Max Fried	0.1351	0.1764	0.1818	48.4	13.3	35.1
9	Ariel Jurado	0.2063	0.2612	0.3438	86.4	52.0	34.3
10	Corbin Burnes	0.3587	0.2116	0.1562	42.4	9.8	32.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Luis Perdomo	0.3846	0.1016	0.0851	83.8	0.9	82.9
2	Francisco Liriano	0.3462	0.0977	0.0435	86.1	12.2	73.9
3	Ian Kennedy	0.3750	0.0996	0.0317	86.9	14.4	72.5
4	Sandy Alcantara	0.2500	0.3314	0.4375	170.9	100.4	70.6
5	Robert Stephenson	0.3846	0.1181	0.0351	87.3	18.2	69.1
6	Chase Anderson	0.2857	0.1666	0.1250	85.4	16.6	68.8
7	Chris Stratton	0.3929	0.2034	0.0857	100.0	35.8	64.2
8	Nick Kingham	0.3704	0.1417	0.0800	70.9	12.5	58.5
9	Scott Barlow	0.3200	0.1375	0.0492	78.8	23.2	55.7
10	Brad Keller	0.2093	0.2817	0.5000	217.8	164.4	53.3

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Roenis Elías	0.2917	0.0000 (60.9)	0.0370 (58.6)	0.0000 (60.8)	0.0000 (61.1)
Ian Kennedy	0.4762	0.0000 (124.0)	0.0294 (123.3)	0.0000 (123.9)	0.0000 (124.3)
Carlos Martinez	0.5000	0.0000 (98.0)	0.0571 (91.9)	0.0000 (97.9)	0.0000 (98.2)
Liam Hendriks	0.3333	0.0000 (107.4)	0.0294 (106.5)	0.0000 (107.3)	0.0000 (107.7)
Hansel Robles	0.3239	0.0000 (88.9)	0.0238 (89.7)	0.0000 (88.8)	0.0000 (89.2)
Héctor Neris	0.4118	0.0000 (110.5)	0.1778 (68.9)	0.0000 (110.4)	0.0000 (110.8)
Josh Hader	0.6066	0.2626 (96.6)	0.1163 (146.5)	0.2800 (91.4)	0.2407 (103.2)
Taylor Rogers	0.5000	0.0266 (128.9)	0.0185 (138.5)	0.0289 (128.1)	0.0243 (129.8)
Emilio Pagán	0.3030	0.0000 (78.3)	0.0250 (78.7)	0.0000 (78.2)	0.0000 (78.5)
Brandon Workman	0.2192	0.0000 (59.9)	0.0294 (59.1)	0.0000 (59.8)	0.0000 (60.2)
Will Smith	0.5397	0.2936 (60.7)	0.1351 (108.3)	0.2731 (65.9)	0.3122 (56.2)
Luke Jackson	0.2571	0.0000 (77.9)	0.0303 (76.7)	0.0000 (77.8)	0.0000 (78.2)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ryan Brasier	0.5710	0.1129	112.8
2	Blake Parker	0.4921	0.1667	85.5
3	Anthony Swarzak	0.3871	0.0678	77.0
4	Mychal Givens	0.4446	0.1897	68.8
5	Andrew Miller	0.3633	0.0822	68.7
6	Alex Colomé	0.2475	0.4839	56.4
7	Craig Kimbrel	0.0000	0.5652	53.3
8	Kirby Yates	0.4604	0.6833	51.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Kirby Yates	0.1020	0.6833	145.3
2	Archie Bradley	0.0426	0.2727	78.3
3	Brad Hand	0.2642	0.5667	77.3
4	Jeurys Familia	0.2708	0.0000	69.6
5	Fernando Rodney	0.3469	0.0364	61.7
6	Aroldis Chapman	0.3953	0.6167	55.9
7	Felipe Vázquez	0.2830	0.5000	55.2
8	Raisel Iglesias	0.3191	0.5000	55.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ryan Brasier	0.5388	0.1129	105.1
2	Blake Parker	0.4807	0.1667	82.7
3	Mychal Givens	0.4522	0.1897	70.9
4	Kirby Yates	0.4371	0.6833	57.3
5	Craig Kimbrel	0.0000	0.5652	53.3
6	José Alvarado	0.5429	0.2000	51.6
7	Hunter Strickland	0.5376	0.0714	50.0
8	Jake Diekman	0.1609	0.0000	48.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Anthony Swarzak	0.7259	0.0678	156.1
2	Ryan Brasier	0.6036	0.1129	120.4
3	Alex Colomé	0.0260	0.4839	111.8
4	Andrew Miller	0.4713	0.0822	93.9
5	Blake Parker	0.5029	0.1667	88.0
6	Mychal Givens	0.4360	0.1897	66.3
7	Craig Kimbrel	0.0000	0.5652	53.4
8	Joakim Soria	0.1745	0.0141	47.1

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Kirby Yates	0.1020	0.4604	0.6833	145.3	51.8	93.6
2	Brad Hand	0.2642	0.4919	0.5667	77.3	15.7	61.6
3	Jeurys Familia	0.2708	0.0298	0.0000	69.6	10.9	58.8
4	Fernando Rodney	0.3469	0.0000	0.0364	61.7	5.6	56.1
5	Josh Hader	0.1163	0.2626	0.6066	146.5	96.6	50.0
6	Felipe Vázquez	0.2830	0.4641	0.5000	55.2	6.1	49.0
7	Raisel Iglesias	0.3191	0.5148	0.5000	55.1	6.9	48.2
8	Will Smith	0.1351	0.2936	0.5397	108.3	60.7	47.6
9	Zack Britton	0.2500	0.0361	0.0455	46.0	0.1	45.9
10	Roberto Osuna	0.4103	0.5537	0.5758	46.1	3.1	43.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Hunter Strickland	0.5376	0.2534	0.0714	50.0	20.1	29.9
2	Matt Albers	0.2189	0.1086	0.0597	43.7	15.2	28.6
3	Sean Doolittle	0.3314	0.4212	0.4603	30.9	7.6	23.3
4	Merrill Kelly	0.0288	0.0000	0.0000	30.4	7.7	22.7
5	Aroldis Chapman	0.4836	0.5288	0.6167	28.9	18.3	10.5
6	Nick Ramirez	0.0288	0.0000	0.0000	13.6	3.4	10.2
7	Roberto Osuna	0.5170	0.5537	0.5758	12.3	3.1	9.2
8	Edwin Díaz	0.5144	0.4824	0.3939	33.2	25.0	8.2
9	Shawn Armstrong	0.0000	0.0303	0.0727	16.9	8.8	8.1
10	Kirby Yates	0.4371	0.4604	0.6833	57.3	51.8	5.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Anthony Swarzak	0.7259	0.3871	0.0678	156.1	77.0	79.0
2	Alex Colomé	0.0260	0.2475	0.4839	111.8	56.4	55.4
3	Andrew Miller	0.4713	0.3633	0.0822	93.9	68.7	25.2
4	Homer Bailey	0.0288	0.0000	0.0000	26.2	6.9	19.3
5	Nate Jones	0.7528	0.3997	0.0769	32.2	15.6	16.5
6	Zach Plesac	0.0288	0.0000	0.0000	17.9	4.7	13.2
7	Jordan Hicks	0.2053	0.2978	0.4828	29.5	19.3	10.3
8	Mark Melancon	0.2524	0.2182	0.1818	22.6	13.1	9.4
9	Ryan Brasier	0.6036	0.5710	0.1129	120.4	112.8	7.6
10	Nick Margevicius	0.0288	0.0000	0.0000	9.9	2.6	7.3

Hold Rate

Everybody Missed for Hold Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Aaron Bummer	0.4655	0.0363 (112.8)	0.1250 (98.5)	0.0365 (111.1)	0.0000 (106.5)
Ryan Pressly	0.5636	0.2204 (72.7)	0.1887 (86.6)	0.2223 (70.9)	0.0000 (106.5)
Craig Stammen	0.4079	0.2248 (62.5)	0.2200 (75.8)	0.2138 (64.1)	0.0000 (118.3)
Drew Pomeranz	0.2609	0.0000 (119.3)	0.0645 (105.5)	0.0000 (116.4)	0.0000 (91.9)

Individual Misses for Hold Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Trent Thornton	0.3733	0.0000	251.8
2	Steven Brault	0.3833	0.0000	192.9
3	Chase Anderson	0.2658	0.0000	156.6
4	Génesis Cabrera	1.4157	0.1538	124.8
5	Wilmer Font	0.3372	0.0417	104.7
6	Mike Montgomery	0.3160	0.0909	89.9
7	Ian Kennedy	0.3405	0.0159	86.0
8	Sean Newcomb	0.0000	0.2909	85.6
9	Evan Marshall	0.0000	0.3455	72.5
10	Junior Guerra	0.4853	0.2778	70.9

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Dakota Hudson	0.2174	0.0000	137.6
2	Mike Minor	0.1458	0.0000	95.2
3	Zack Britton	0.1111	0.4394	89.1
4	Junior Guerra	0.0769	0.2778	81.3
5	John Means	0.1538	0.0000	75.3
6	John Gant	0.0541	0.2969	74.9
7	Sean Newcomb	0.0714	0.2909	74.7
8	Spencer Turnbull	0.1481	0.0000	73.9
9	Seth Lugo	0.1538	0.3443	71.0
10	Yusmeiro Petit	0.1765	0.3625	68.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Trent Thornton	0.2278	0.0000	157.7
2	Steven Brault	0.2573	0.0000	132.5
3	Chase Anderson	0.1852	0.0000	112.6
4	Sean Newcomb	0.0000	0.2909	83.7
5	Evan Marshall	0.0000	0.3455	71.1
6	Génesis Cabrera	0.8487	0.1538	69.3
7	Wilmer Font	0.2289	0.0417	68.5
8	Hansel Robles	0.2572	0.0282	66.3
9	Kenta Maeda	0.0000	0.1081	64.3
10	Wander Suero	0.0336	0.2436	60.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jake Diekman	0.0000	0.4079	98.4
2	Yusmeiro Petit	0.0000	0.3625	93.5
3	Ty Buttrey	0.0000	0.3611	93.4
4	Zack Britton	0.0000	0.4394	93.2
5	Adam Ottavino	0.0000	0.3836	91.9
6	Seth Lugo	0.0000	0.3443	89.6
7	Matt Barnes	0.0000	0.3714	89.0
8	Homer Bailey	0.0602	0.0000	83.0
9	Tony Watson	0.0000	0.4167	82.6
10	Pedro Báez	0.0000	0.3521	80.9

Most Unique Misses for Hold Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Dakota Hudson	0.2174	0.0220	0.0000	137.6	15.7	122.0
2	Mike Minor	0.1458	0.0000	0.0000	95.2	1.2	94.0
3	John Means	0.1538	0.0000	0.0000	75.3	0.9	74.5
4	Seth Lugo	0.1538	0.3205	0.3443	71.0	7.9	63.1
5	Sandy Alcantara	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	63.3	1.1	62.2
6	Brad Keller	0.1190	0.0000	0.0000	59.2	1.0	58.2
7	John Gant	0.0541	0.2294	0.2969	74.9	18.5	56.4
8	Aaron Brooks	0.1538	0.0000	0.0000	57.0	0.6	56.4
9	Tyler Beede	0.1333	0.0000	0.0000	51.1	0.7	50.4
10	Nick Anderson	0.0602	0.2002	0.2353	55.6	9.6	46.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Merrill Kelly	0.0602	0.0000	0.0000	50.8	1.0	49.7
2	Seth Lugo	0.2339	0.3205	0.3443	33.1	7.9	25.2
3	John Gant	0.1513	0.2294	0.2969	37.8	18.5	19.2
4	Francisco Liriano	0.1103	0.1835	0.1739	17.6	2.5	15.1
5	Ty Buttrey	0.2598	0.3055	0.3611	29.7	17.6	12.1
6	Michael Lorenzen	0.2255	0.2598	0.2877	19.6	10.0	9.6
7	Gregory Soto	0.2249	0.1980	0.0606	46.8	37.5	9.2
8	Josh Tomlin	0.0550	0.0869	0.1373	24.7	16.5	8.1
9	Luis Perdomo	0.0479	0.0805	0.1489	28.4	20.7	7.7
10	Nick Ramirez	0.0602	0.0000	0.0217	15.2	8.0	7.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Homer Bailey	0.0602	0.0000	0.0000	83.0	0.9	82.1
2	Seth Lugo	0.0000	0.3205	0.3443	89.6	7.9	81.7
3	Ty Buttrey	0.0000	0.3055	0.3611	93.4	17.6	75.8
4	Pedro Báez	0.0000	0.3247	0.3521	80.9	7.9	73.0
5	Michael Lorenzen	0.0000	0.2598	0.2877	78.4	10.0	68.4
6	Chaz Roe	0.0000	0.3351	0.3521	67.1	4.2	62.9
7	Yusmeiro Petit	0.0000	0.2460	0.3625	93.5	36.3	57.2
8	Zach Plesac	0.0602	0.0000	0.0000	56.6	0.6	56.0
9	Craig Stammen	0.0000	0.2248	0.4079	118.3	62.5	55.8
10	Lou Trivino III	0.0000	0.2664	0.2787	59.1	3.7	55.4

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Austen Williams	162.0000	4.4139 (1100.7)	4.4702 (1099.8)	4.0660 (1103.1)	4.7762 (1098.1)
Jack Flaherty	2.7504	3.6491 (962.7)	3.8298 (1153.3)	3.6765 (986.8)	3.6213 (942.9)
Marcus Stroman	3.2224	4.1241 (967.5)	4.2241 (1096.1)	4.1685 (1004.8)	4.0791 (934.4)
Edwin Jackson	9.5764	4.9928 (1423.0)	4.3058 (1631.6)	5.2318 (1341.4)	4.7514 (1503.4)
Ty Blach	12.0000	4.3174 (1019.5)	4.3712 (1002.8)	4.0925 (1050.2)	4.5466 (987.3)
Dan Straily	9.8182	5.1671 (1015.4)	4.1117 (1248.9)	5.2911 (985.3)	5.0418 (1044.5)
Hyun Jin Ryu	2.3157	3.8012 (1325.9)	3.3720 (1063.4)	3.7172 (1267.9)	3.8864 (1389.0)
Sonny Gray	2.8745	4.0375 (1070.0)	4.4143 (1383.7)	3.9366 (1001.3)	4.1396 (1143.8)
Lucas Giolito	3.4132	5.1750 (1487.7)	5.1946 (1548.1)	5.3201 (1592.6)	5.0272 (1385.0)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	John Means	5.3521	3.6000	1338.0
2	Michael Soroka	3.8449	2.6794	1061.2
3	Mike Minor	4.4666	3.5856	1061.0
4	Jake Odorizzi	4.7158	3.5094	1023.0
5	Zack Greinke	3.8385	2.9329	1015.7
6	Lance Lynn	4.4843	3.6720	1015.6
7	Dakota Hudson	4.3393	3.3492	1013.2
8	Antonio Senzatela	4.6401	6.7139	1004.2
9	Corbin Burnes	4.2051	8.8163	1001.8
10	Gerrit Cole	3.3423	2.5008	972.2

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Kyle Freeland	3.4927	6.7284	1334.4
2	Shane Bieber	4.3829	3.2753	1307.5
3	Gerrit Cole	3.6399	2.5008	1269.3
4	Michael Soroka	4.0316	2.6794	1238.5
5	Antonio Senzatela	4.4026	6.7139	1103.9
6	Corbin Burnes	3.7916	8.8163	1083.4
7	Jeff Samardzija	4.5177	3.5239	1042.2
8	Brett Anderson	4.8184	3.8864	1000.5
9	Chris Paddack	4.5851	3.3270	950.1
10	Peter Lambert	4.5851	7.2537	946.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	John Means	5.3054	3.6000	1310.6
2	Michael Soroka	4.1249	2.6794	1260.1
3	Jake Odorizzi	4.9809	3.5094	1199.9
4	Zack Greinke	3.9864	2.9329	1138.6
5	Gerrit Cole	3.5231	2.5008	1122.9
6	Mike Minor	4.4448	3.5856	1045.4
7	Dakota Hudson	4.3582	3.3492	1030.3
8	Julio Teheran	4.8203	3.8130	1025.1
9	Lance Lynn	4.4691	3.6720	1005.6
10	Justin Verlander	3.3777	2.5830	971.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	John Means	5.4000	3.6000	1369.9
2	Antonio Senzatela	4.4672	6.7139	1103.6
3	Mike Minor	4.4887	3.5856	1081.8
4	Corbin Burnes	3.9237	8.8163	1067.4
5	Jeff Samardzija	4.5914	3.5239	1049.3
6	Lance Lynn	4.5000	3.6720	1031.2
7	Aníbal Sánchez	4.9298	3.8494	1018.8
8	Dakota Hudson	4.3200	3.3492	1000.2
9	José Suarez	4.1777	7.1111	968.6
10	Adrian Houser	5.4205	3.7186	948.2

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Shane Bieber	4.3829	3.7816	3.2753	1307.5	734.1	573.4
2	Reynaldo López	4.1238	4.8345	5.3804	681.2	159.8	521.4
3	Adrian Sampson	4.2726	5.2502	5.8883	676.3	163.1	513.1
4	Chris Paddack	4.5851	3.7713	3.3270	950.1	450.2	499.8
5	Kyle Freeland	3.4927	4.5869	6.7284	1334.4	848.2	486.3
6	Brett Anderson	4.8184	4.2569	3.8864	1000.5	534.1	466.3
7	David Hess	4.5694	5.8208	7.0875	767.8	335.2	432.6
8	Trevor Williams	3.6932	4.3822	5.3753	806.2	410.0	396.1
9	Wade LeBlanc	3.9600	4.7033	5.7115	711.3	351.0	360.2
10	Miles Mikolas	3.2748	3.8093	4.1576	357.8	0.0	357.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Trent Thornton	4.0269	4.4053	4.8402	312.2	58.5	253.6
2	Mike Fiers	4.8178	4.5544	3.8989	958.3	756.9	201.5
3	Michael Soroka	4.1249	3.8449	2.6794	1260.1	1061.2	198.9
4	Jake Odorizzi	4.9809	4.7158	3.5094	1199.9	1023.0	176.9
5	Mike Leake	4.7023	4.4987	4.2944	634.6	461.5	173.2
6	Miles Mikolas	4.0290	3.8093	4.1576	170.7	0.0	170.7
7	Jon Lester	4.3821	4.1775	4.4563	212.3	53.1	159.2
8	Iván Nova	5.0152	4.8245	4.7166	524.5	367.7	156.7
9	Justin Verlander	3.3777	3.1992	2.5830	971.4	817.0	154.4
10	Gerrit Cole	3.5231	3.3423	2.5008	1122.9	972.2	150.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Max Fried	4.3653	3.9598	4.0201	488.4	202.2	286.1
2	Tyler Beede	5.5455	5.0488	5.0769	428.4	167.5	260.9
3	Jason Vargas	5.0784	4.6819	4.5100	596.3	337.7	258.7
4	Adrian Houser	5.4205	4.8984	3.7186	948.2	706.0	242.2
5	Aníbal Sánchez	4.9298	4.6150	3.8494	1018.8	793.2	225.6
6	Elieser Hernández	5.9869	5.3835	5.0283	462.1	248.3	213.8
7	Trevor Williams	4.0558	4.3822	5.3753	616.3	410.0	206.2
8	Jairo Díaz	5.8811	5.0455	4.5260	417.9	212.6	205.2
9	Aaron Sanchez	4.1702	4.5096	5.8934	830.5	626.4	204.1
10	Asher Wojciechowski	5.9226	5.3720	4.9190	488.8	289.3	199.5

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Ryan Yarbrough	0.9953	1.3456 (200.7)	1.2977 (195.0)	1.3609 (213.6)	1.3301 (188.9)
Jack Flaherty	0.9677	1.2239 (202.5)	1.2057 (217.5)	1.2346 (216.8)	1.2130 (190.0)
Zack Greinke	0.9824	1.2036 (184.2)	1.1432 (165.7)	1.2604 (236.4)	1.1479 (134.7)
John Means	1.1355	1.4359 (195.3)	1.3284 (150.8)	1.4142 (186.4)	1.4581 (206.1)
Justin Verlander	0.8027	1.0457 (211.1)	1.0670 (261.0)	1.0685 (236.9)	1.0231 (187.4)
Lucas Giolito	1.0642	1.5174 (323.9)	1.3878 (259.1)	1.5407 (345.8)	1.4937 (303.4)
Edwin Jackson	2.0246	1.4834 (179.8)	1.3508 (211.7)	1.4919 (174.3)	1.4749 (184.4)
Lance Lynn	1.2192	1.4656 (221.0)	1.3813 (180.2)	1.4323 (198.6)	1.5000 (246.4)
Taylor Hearn	21.0000	1.5353 (155.7)	1.3497 (156.9)	1.4888 (156.0)	1.5839 (155.3)
Hyun Jin Ryu	1.0073	1.2354 (169.4)	1.2400 (199.9)	1.2209 (164.5)	1.2500 (176.1)
Antonio Senzatela	1.7487	1.4076 (194.9)	1.3358 (214.7)	1.4429 (169.9)	1.3723 (218.6)
Sonny Gray	1.0837	1.3257 (175.7)	1.3690 (233.1)	1.3468 (196.1)	1.3043 (156.8)
Gerrit Cole	0.8948	1.1371 (203.0)	1.1856 (273.4)	1.1465 (217.0)	1.1277 (190.9)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Sandy Alcantara	1.5099	1.3176	166.4
2	Jeff Samardzija	1.2914	1.1085	140.0
3	Jesse Biddle	1.3608	2.2857	139.6
4	Yusmeiro Petit	1.2521	0.8072	138.9
5	Andrew Cashner	1.5531	1.3467	135.2
6	Jeurys Familia	1.2365	1.7333	134.5
7	Ty Blach	1.3850	2.3333	131.0

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Shane Bieber	1.3266	1.0544	271.5
2	Chris Paddack	1.3497	0.9810	234.3
3	Michael Soroka	1.3439	1.1107	194.2
4	Homer Bailey	1.5480	1.3163	191.8
5	Dan Straily	1.2908	1.9930	155.4
6	Tommy Milone	1.4127	1.1194	152.7
7	Giovanny Gallegos	1.3070	0.8108	150.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Yusmeiro Petit	1.3110	0.8072	159.4
2	Sandy Alcantara	1.4854	1.3176	152.2
3	Michael Soroka	1.3132	1.1107	151.7
4	Jeff Samardzija	1.2960	1.1085	149.0
5	Jesse Biddle	1.2969	2.2857	148.2
6	Andrew Cashner	1.5585	1.3467	143.5
7	Nick Kingham	1.2908	1.8503	141.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Sandy Alcantara	1.5352	1.3176	183.1
2	Jon Lester	1.2944	1.4971	154.2
3	Robert Stephenson	1.6050	1.0361	149.3
4	Jeurys Familia	1.2239	1.7333	139.4
5	Adrian Houser	1.5341	1.2395	136.5
6	Frankie Montas	1.4535	1.1146	133.9
7	Alex Young	1.5674	1.1880	132.7

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Shane Bieber	1.3266	1.1973	1.0544	271.5	128.0	143.4
2	Chris Paddack	1.3497	1.1750	0.9810	234.3	113.7	120.6
3	Gregory Soto	1.3497	1.8227	1.8555	127.5	7.3	120.1
4	Homer Bailey	1.5480	1.4313	1.3163	191.8	84.3	107.5
5	Gerrit Cole	1.1856	1.1371	0.8948	273.4	203.0	70.4
6	Michael Soroka	1.3439	1.2853	1.1107	194.2	126.7	67.5
7	Elvis Luciano	1.3497	1.7760	1.7822	61.8	0.0	61.8
8	Germán Márquez	1.2808	1.2366	1.2011	89.0	30.0	59.0
9	Sonny Gray	1.3690	1.3257	1.0837	233.1	175.7	57.3
10	Reynaldo López	1.3065	1.4139	1.4565	85.9	29.5	56.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Clayton Kershaw	1.1404	1.0723	1.0430	78.5	25.0	53.5
2	Zack Greinke	1.2604	1.2036	0.9824	236.4	184.2	52.2
3	Mike Leake	1.3886	1.3420	1.2893	94.4	49.1	45.3
4	Trent Thornton	1.2151	1.2810	1.4060	119.9	80.4	39.4
5	Kyle Hendricks	1.2816	1.2407	1.1299	120.8	85.4	35.4
6	Steven Brault	1.3924	1.4627	1.5000	47.3	15.7	31.6
7	Brad Keller	1.4407	1.4049	1.3548	70.7	39.9	30.9
8	Julio Teheran	1.4096	1.3788	1.3225	76.1	47.1	29.1
9	Stephen Strasburg	1.1875	1.1615	1.0383	137.2	108.8	28.4
10	Madison Bumgarner	1.2475	1.2223	1.1268	113.6	85.8	27.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Max Fried	1.5090	1.4334	1.3340	123.4	74.1	49.3
2	Tyler Beede	1.6970	1.6012	1.4786	114.6	67.3	47.3
3	Jairo Díaz	1.7822	1.6015	1.3006	118.2	75.2	43.0
4	Trevor Williams	1.3262	1.3795	1.4142	55.4	18.1	37.3
5	Scott Barlow	1.5956	1.4789	1.4360	49.7	15.2	34.5
6	Caleb Smith	1.4098	1.3511	1.2261	119.2	84.7	34.5
7	Luis Perdomo	1.5158	1.3945	1.2083	91.3	56.9	34.3
8	Robert Stephenson	1.6050	1.4702	1.0361	149.3	115.4	33.9
9	Asher Wojciechowski	1.5097	1.4129	1.3117	71.8	38.8	33.0
10	Aaron Nola	1.1354	1.1685	1.2652	109.9	77.1	32.7