2023 Fantasy Projection Evaluation

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2023, excluding batters with fewer than 300 PA and pitchers with fewer than 200 BF. Limited to 5x5 categories, with playing time (PA/BF) split out from rates.

Summary

Batting

System PA HR SB R RBI AVG
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF SO W SV ERA WHIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jake Burger 201 540 339.4
2 Brent Rooker 210 526 315.7
3 Maikel Garcia 204 515 311.2
4 Zach McKinstry 251 518 267.0
5 Mike Tauchman 138 401 263.3
6 Brenton Doyle 188 431 243.2
7 Zach Neto 87 329 242.0
8 Jake McCarthy 548 312 235.5
9 Mike Trout 580 362 218.3
10 Andy Ibáñez 165 383 217.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Volpe 100 601 501.0
2 Masataka Yoshida 100 580 480.0
3 Spencer Steer 259 665 406.0
4 Ryan Noda 100 495 395.0
5 Ezequiel Tovar 227 615 388.0
6 Corbin Carroll 267 645 378.0
7 Fernando Tatis Jr. 262 635 373.0
8 Jordan Walker 100 465 365.0
9 James Outman 212 567 355.0
10 Brice Turang 100 448 348.0

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brent Rooker 45 526 481.0
2 Maikel Garcia 44 515 471.0
3 Jake Burger 141 540 399.0
4 Brenton Doyle 46 431 385.0
5 Zach McKinstry 149 518 369.0
6 Willi Castro 45 409 364.0
7 Edouard Julien 45 408 363.0
8 Joey Wiemer 56 410 354.0
9 Mike Tauchman 54 401 347.0
10 Anthony Volpe 263 601 338.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Maikel Garcia 19 515 495.7
2 Jake Burger 99 540 441.1
3 Brenton Doyle 26 431 404.7
4 Matt McLain 1 403 402.0
5 Mike Tauchman 13 401 387.8
6 Andy Ibáñez 7 383 376.4
7 Edouard Julien 33 408 375.2
8 Brent Rooker 169 526 357.2
9 Patrick Bailey 1 353 352.0
10 Nolan Jones 91 424 332.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Miguel Vargas 582 304 278.0
2 Rowdy Tellez 592 351 241.0
3 Eduardo Escobar 548 309 239.0
4 Josh Jung 280 515 235.0
5 JJ Bleday 536 303 233.0
6 Jorge Polanco 567 343 224.0
7 Nico Hoerner 469 688 219.0
8 Fernando Tatis Jr. 430 635 205.0
9 Nick Pratto 550 345 205.0
10 Ezequiel Tovar 413 615 202.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Masataka Yoshida 100 535 580 480.0 44.6 435.4
2 Jordan Walker 100 452 465 365.0 12.6 352.4
3 Anthony Volpe 100 449 601 501.0 151.5 349.5
4 Brice Turang 100 446 448 348.0 2.4 345.6
5 Corbin Carroll 267 596 645 378.0 49.3 328.7
6 Gunnar Henderson 277 603 622 345.0 19.5 325.5
7 Ryan Noda 100 342 495 395.0 153.1 241.9
8 Spencer Steer 259 490 665 406.0 175.3 230.7
9 Joey Meneses 318 548 657 339.0 108.6 230.4
10 Esteury Ruiz 225 450 497 272.0 46.7 225.3

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Miguel Cabrera 100 379 370 270.0 8.7 261.3
2 Alek Thomas 144 366 402 258.0 35.8 222.2
3 Corey Julks 100 313 323 223.0 9.7 213.3
4 Will Benson 53 251 329 276.0 78.2 197.8
5 Alec Burleson 56 252 347 291.0 95.1 195.9
6 Yainer Diaz 45 234 377 332.0 142.6 189.4
7 Anthony Volpe 263 449 601 338.0 151.5 186.5
8 Brett Baty 114 287 389 275.0 102.0 173.0
9 Owen Miller 47 220 314 267.0 94.4 172.6
10 Brent Rooker 45 210 526 481.0 315.7 165.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Andruw Monasterio 1 216 315 314.0 99.0 215.0
2 Matt McLain 1 209 403 402.0 194.0 208.0
3 Corey Julks 112 313 323 211.3 9.7 201.7
4 Jarren Duran 62 247 362 299.5 114.8 184.7
5 Maikel Garcia 19 204 515 495.7 311.2 184.4
6 Elly De La Cruz 125 298 427 302.2 129.4 172.8
7 Nolan Jones 91 258 424 332.7 165.6 167.1
8 Patrick Bailey 1 168 353 352.0 185.0 167.0
9 Brenton Doyle 26 188 431 404.7 243.2 161.5
10 Edouard Julien 33 193 408 375.2 214.7 160.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 JJ Bleday 536 331 303 233.0 28.1 204.9
2 Nick Pratto 550 342 345 205.0 2.9 202.1
3 Corey Julks 515 313 323 192.0 9.7 182.3
4 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 549 349 361 188.0 12.2 175.8
5 Yuli Gurriel 508 321 329 179.0 8.4 170.6
6 Josh Jung 280 429 515 235.0 86.1 148.9
7 Elehuris Montero 486 346 307 179.0 38.6 140.4
8 Gavin Sheets 475 346 344 131.0 1.9 129.1
9 Brice Turang 579 446 448 131.0 2.4 128.6
10 Tyler Stephenson 343 467 517 174.0 49.8 124.2

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Luis Robert Jr. 0.0997
0.0558
(25.2)
0.0514
(27.7)
0.0571
(25.0)
0.0538
(25.4)
0.0564
(25.3)
George Springer 0.0426
0.0684
(18.7)
0.0694
(19.6)
0.0670
(17.1)
0.0663
(18.3)
0.0718
(20.5)
Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.0571
0.1015
(29.3)
0.0964
(26.1)
0.0899
(21.3)
0.0991
(28.6)
0.1165
(38.3)
Jose Siri 0.1179
0.0572
(21.5)
0.0474
(25.0)
0.0621
(20.1)
0.0561
(21.4)
0.0534
(23.2)
Matt Olson 0.1213
0.0810
(27.9)
0.0769
(30.7)
0.0800
(29.3)
0.0785
(28.6)
0.0845
(26.0)
Adolis García 0.1010
0.0666
(20.7)
0.0654
(21.3)
0.0640
(23.0)
0.0631
(22.0)
0.0729
(17.3)
Jake Burger 0.0980
0.0591
(20.1)
0.0570
(21.2)
0.0637
(18.2)
0.0582
(19.8)
0.0556
(22.5)
Jeremy Peña 0.0221
0.0527
(20.5)
0.0528
(20.6)
0.0535
(20.4)
0.0518
(20.8)
0.0529
(20.0)
Marcell Ozuna 0.1005
0.0642
(20.5)
0.0627
(21.3)
0.0616
(22.7)
0.0612
(21.4)
0.0700
(17.6)
Joey Meneses 0.0269
0.0617
(23.9)
0.0631
(25.0)
0.0627
(24.0)
0.0568
(21.7)
0.0655
(25.9)
J.D. Martinez 0.1122
0.0586
(24.9)
0.0518
(28.1)
0.0584
(25.5)
0.0573
(24.8)
0.0601
(24.6)
Michael A. Taylor 0.0917
0.0354
(21.2)
0.0377
(20.2)
0.0342
(22.1)
0.0328
(21.7)
0.0393
(20.0)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.0780 0.0514 19.2
2 Max Muncy 0.0735 0.1075 18.7
3 Shohei Ohtani 0.0897 0.1215 18.1
4 William Contreras 0.0688 0.0408 18.1
5 Aaron Judge 0.1134 0.1542 18.0
6 Tim Anderson 0.0345 0.0027 17.5
7 Javier Báez 0.0533 0.0231 17.4
8 Christopher Morel 0.0590 0.1008 17.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brent Rooker 0.0533 0.1017 24.5
2 Spencer Torkelson 0.0366 0.0705 21.9
3 Eugenio Suárez 0.0836 0.0557 20.6
4 Javier Báez 0.0588 0.0231 20.5
5 Tim Anderson 0.0379 0.0027 19.4
6 Shohei Ohtani 0.0877 0.1215 19.2
7 Max Muncy 0.0727 0.1075 19.1
8 Nolan Gorman 0.0611 0.1038 19.0

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.0825 0.0514 21.7
2 Max Muncy 0.0719 0.1075 20.2
3 Aaron Judge 0.1104 0.1542 19.7
4 William Contreras 0.0719 0.0408 19.4
5 Shohei Ohtani 0.0891 0.1215 19.1
6 Nathaniel Lowe 0.0620 0.0369 18.6
7 Joey Gallo 0.0954 0.1500 17.9
8 Patrick Wisdom 0.0859 0.1447 17.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.0807 0.0514 22.1
2 Max Muncy 0.0704 0.1075 19.6
3 Aaron Judge 0.1085 0.1542 19.5
4 William Contreras 0.0686 0.0408 18.9
5 Shohei Ohtani 0.0869 0.1215 18.9
6 Nathaniel Lowe 0.0598 0.0369 18.8
7 Javier Báez 0.0535 0.0231 18.3
8 Christopher Morel 0.0552 0.1008 18.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Chapman 0.0822 0.0491 19.7
2 Daulton Varsho 0.0822 0.0504 18.9
3 Eugenio Suárez 0.0821 0.0557 18.9
4 Tim Anderson 0.0357 0.0027 17.7
5 J.P. Crawford 0.0175 0.0459 17.6
6 Hunter Renfroe 0.0843 0.0532 17.5
7 Javier Báez 0.0538 0.0231 17.2
8 Christopher Morel 0.0609 0.1008 16.8

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Spencer Torkelson 0.0366 0.0575 0.0705 21.9 7.8 14.1
2 Brice Turang 0.0516 0.0248 0.0190 15.4 3.3 12.1
3 Maikel Garcia 0.0403 0.0171 0.0111 15.9 3.9 12.1
4 Andruw Monasterio 0.0516 0.0209 0.0138 12.5 2.7 9.8
5 Will Brennan 0.0437 0.0226 0.0133 14.7 5.0 9.7
6 James Outman 0.0500 0.0673 0.0752 13.2 3.6 9.7
7 Brent Rooker 0.0533 0.0699 0.1017 24.5 15.9 8.6
8 Francisco Alvarez 0.0483 0.0680 0.0916 17.5 9.3 8.3
9 Zach McKinstry 0.0493 0.0353 0.0253 13.4 6.0 7.3
10 Nolan Gorman 0.0611 0.0771 0.1038 19.0 11.7 7.3

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Andruw Monasterio 0.0516 0.0209 0.0138 12.1 2.7 9.4
2 Miguel Cabrera 0.0516 0.0299 0.0152 13.7 6.0 7.7
3 Patrick Bailey 0.0516 0.0318 0.0306 7.7 1.0 6.6
4 Nolan Gorman 0.0706 0.0771 0.1038 15.1 11.7 3.5
5 Ezequiel Tovar 0.0481 0.0418 0.0357 8.0 4.7 3.3
6 Elly De La Cruz 0.0638 0.0557 0.0528 5.0 1.9 3.1
7 Trea Turner 0.0407 0.0435 0.0531 8.1 5.5 2.6
8 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.0825 0.0780 0.0514 21.7 19.2 2.4
9 Mitch Garver 0.0629 0.0687 0.0884 8.6 6.2 2.3
10 Adolis García 0.0640 0.0666 0.1010 23.0 20.7 2.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Nolan Gorman 0.0657 0.0771 0.1038 16.2 11.7 4.6
2 James Outman 0.0593 0.0673 0.0752 7.2 3.6 3.6
3 Gunnar Henderson 0.0465 0.0539 0.0693 12.2 8.6 3.6
4 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.0807 0.0780 0.0514 22.1 19.2 2.9
5 Francisco Alvarez 0.0607 0.0680 0.0916 11.7 9.3 2.5
6 Matt McLain 0.0412 0.0484 0.0640 7.9 5.6 2.3
7 Nico Hoerner 0.0236 0.0218 0.0166 7.0 4.7 2.3
8 Steven Kwan 0.0203 0.0186 0.0088 10.5 8.2 2.2
9 Isaac Paredes 0.0560 0.0614 0.0797 11.7 9.5 2.2
10 Yordan Alvarez 0.0857 0.0915 0.0963 3.7 1.6 2.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.1165 0.1015 0.0571 38.3 29.3 9.0
2 Daulton Varsho 0.0822 0.0727 0.0504 18.9 13.9 5.1
3 Mike Trout 0.1190 0.1053 0.0874 11.7 7.1 4.7
4 Josh Bell 0.0427 0.0492 0.0526 5.7 1.1 4.6
5 Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.0797 0.0730 0.0730 5.5 1.2 4.3
6 Marcus Semien 0.0577 0.0528 0.0512 5.4 2.4 3.1
7 Andrew Vaughn 0.0639 0.0582 0.0478 10.4 7.3 3.0
8 MJ Melendez 0.0696 0.0637 0.0436 16.1 13.1 3.0
9 Salvador Perez 0.0793 0.0735 0.0557 14.2 11.2 2.9
10 Matt Chapman 0.0822 0.0766 0.0491 19.7 16.9 2.8

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Wander Franco 0.2439
0.0703
(76.7)
0.0594
(79.8)
0.0625
(79.7)
0.0719
(78.7)
0.0769
(71.6)
Ha-Seong Kim 0.2135
0.0860
(68.9)
0.0820
(68.5)
0.0821
(70.3)
0.0902
(69.9)
0.0855
(66.8)
Elly De La Cruz 0.3763
0.1842
(74.6)
0.0824
(116.1)
0.1798
(75.8)
0.1685
(83.8)
0.2041
(64.5)
Corbin Carroll 0.3253
0.1329
(112.8)
0.0678
(151.9)
0.1307
(113.2)
0.1347
(115.4)
0.1333
(110.1)
Adolis García 0.0647
0.1515
(65.9)
0.1429
(63.3)
0.1415
(60.6)
0.1691
(73.3)
0.1441
(63.6)
CJ Abrams 0.3588
0.1415
(122.7)
0.0833
(155.6)
0.1363
(124.8)
0.1371
(128.9)
0.1509
(114.6)
Josh Lowe 0.2832
0.1299
(68.0)
0.0735
(94.0)
0.1190
(72.7)
0.1186
(76.6)
0.1525
(54.8)
Bo Bichette 0.0331
0.1075
(55.2)
0.1039
(55.8)
0.1009
(52.2)
0.1175
(57.7)
0.1039
(55.3)
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.3224
0.2043
(69.9)
0.1754
(86.7)
0.1853
(81.8)
0.2340
(53.3)
0.1938
(74.5)
Esteury Ruiz 0.5583
0.3029
(118.3)
0.0612
(236.1)
0.3188
(109.6)
0.3019
(121.7)
0.2880
(123.8)
Willi Castro 0.3113
0.1081
(76.0)
0.0816
(84.9)
0.1020
(77.8)
0.1225
(72.5)
0.1000
(77.7)
Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.3230
0.1967
(80.0)
0.1594
(104.0)
0.1866
(86.2)
0.2273
(61.8)
0.1761
(92.4)
Francisco Lindor 0.1879
0.0854
(58.4)
0.0789
(59.7)
0.0785
(62.0)
0.0954
(55.5)
0.0823
(58.0)
Brenton Doyle 0.2895
0.1059
(71.6)
0.0824
(79.8)
0.0990
(73.9)
0.0957
(78.5)
0.1226
(62.7)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jon Berti 0.2724 0.1345 65.9
2 Bryson Stott 0.0902 0.1925 54.4
3 Randy Arozarena 0.1795 0.1140 54.3
4 Nico Hoerner 0.1235 0.2172 52.5
5 Jorge Mateo 0.3018 0.4638 50.6
6 Tommy Pham 0.0742 0.1964 50.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jorge Mateo 0.2449 0.4638 68.9
2 Jarren Duran 0.1029 0.2963 62.0
3 Brice Turang 0.0824 0.2385 60.1
4 Jihwan Bae 0.0909 0.2727 59.3
5 Nico Hoerner 0.1102 0.2172 58.4
6 Anthony Volpe 0.0824 0.1967 55.5

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jorge Mateo 0.2762 0.4638 58.9
2 Nico Hoerner 0.1138 0.2172 57.9
3 Bryson Stott 0.0854 0.1925 56.3
4 Tommy Pham 0.0635 0.1964 54.7
5 Jon Berti 0.2365 0.1345 51.4
6 Taylor Walls 0.0985 0.2619 50.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jon Berti 0.3046 0.1345 77.1
2 Randy Arozarena 0.2038 0.1140 66.4
3 Marcus Semien 0.1412 0.0741 59.3
4 Bryson Stott 0.1004 0.1925 51.6
5 Tommy Pham 0.0806 0.1964 50.1
6 Jarren Duran 0.1484 0.2963 49.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jon Berti 0.2766 0.1345 69.3
2 Jorge Mateo 0.2796 0.4638 57.0
3 Nico Hoerner 0.1148 0.2172 55.8
4 Bryson Stott 0.0847 0.1925 55.4
5 Randy Arozarena 0.1656 0.1140 47.6
6 Nolan Jones 0.0351 0.1681 47.4

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Esteury Ruiz 0.0612 0.3029 0.5583 236.1 118.3 117.8
2 Anthony Volpe 0.0824 0.1745 0.1967 55.5 2.9 52.6
3 Elly De La Cruz 0.0824 0.1842 0.3763 116.1 74.6 41.5
4 Corbin Carroll 0.0678 0.1329 0.3253 151.9 112.8 39.0
5 Maikel Garcia 0.0566 0.1342 0.1667 45.3 7.7 37.6
6 CJ Abrams 0.0833 0.1415 0.3588 155.6 122.7 32.9
7 Drew Waters 0.0333 0.1150 0.2078 51.4 25.4 26.0
8 Josh Lowe 0.0735 0.1299 0.2832 94.0 68.0 26.0
9 Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.1594 0.1967 0.3230 104.0 80.0 24.0
10 Patrick Bailey 0.0824 0.0218 0.0135 32.1 9.1 23.0

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Miguel Cabrera 0.0824 0.0101 0.0000 37.6 10.2 27.4
2 Patrick Bailey 0.0824 0.0218 0.0135 31.1 9.1 22.0
3 Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.1460 0.1731 0.2000 22.1 6.0 16.1
4 Bobby Witt Jr. 0.1853 0.2043 0.3224 81.8 69.9 12.0
5 Matt McLain 0.0824 0.1090 0.1386 15.0 4.9 10.0
6 Kyle Tucker 0.1269 0.1430 0.1714 17.1 7.4 9.8
7 Julio Rodríguez 0.1585 0.1734 0.2216 31.3 21.9 9.4
8 Jorge Mateo 0.2762 0.3018 0.4638 58.9 50.6 8.4
9 Tommy Edman 0.1662 0.1824 0.2269 22.0 14.3 7.7
10 Luis Robert Jr. 0.0993 0.1137 0.1802 36.7 29.2 7.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Randy Arozarena 0.2038 0.1795 0.1140 66.4 54.3 12.1
2 Marcus Semien 0.1412 0.1194 0.0741 59.3 47.3 12.0
3 Jon Berti 0.3046 0.2724 0.1345 77.1 65.9 11.2
4 Jake Rogers 0.1023 0.0672 0.0139 36.5 25.8 10.7
5 Cedric Mullins 0.2286 0.2022 0.1959 20.2 10.8 9.4
6 Elly De La Cruz 0.1685 0.1842 0.3763 83.8 74.6 9.2
7 Josh Lowe 0.1186 0.1299 0.2832 76.6 68.0 8.6
8 Adolis García 0.1691 0.1515 0.0647 73.3 65.9 7.5
9 Whit Merrifield 0.1760 0.1540 0.1733 8.5 1.1 7.4
10 Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.1350 0.1157 0.0917 28.8 21.8 7.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.1761 0.1967 0.3230 92.4 80.0 12.3
2 Joey Wiemer 0.1389 0.1172 0.1310 12.0 1.5 10.4
3 Michael Harris II 0.1739 0.1593 0.1613 18.3 8.3 9.9
4 Gunnar Henderson 0.0809 0.0693 0.0735 17.8 8.2 9.6
5 Andrew Benintendi 0.0793 0.0697 0.0807 12.3 4.0 8.3
6 Jordan Walker 0.0965 0.0826 0.0574 28.1 19.8 8.2
7 Teoscar Hernández 0.0794 0.0715 0.0467 36.6 28.7 7.9
8 Elvis Andrus 0.1368 0.1243 0.1250 13.4 6.8 6.6
9 Jorge Mateo 0.2796 0.3018 0.4638 57.0 50.6 6.4
10 Jack Suwinski 0.0305 0.0458 0.0985 24.9 18.8 6.1

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.1144
0.1538
(27.5)
0.1435
(21.3)
0.1665
(34.2)
0.1528
(30.1)
0.1422
(18.0)
Tim Anderson 0.0992
0.1404
(22.0)
0.1562
(30.9)
0.1444
(22.7)
0.1296
(18.9)
0.1471
(24.3)
Adolis García 0.1709
0.1234
(29.5)
0.1273
(26.2)
0.1150
(36.5)
0.1143
(32.1)
0.1407
(19.9)
Corbin Carroll 0.1798
0.1316
(30.6)
0.1161
(39.8)
0.1340
(30.9)
0.1315
(27.5)
0.1293
(33.5)
Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.2027
0.1675
(25.2)
0.1562
(32.7)
0.1681
(26.9)
0.1647
(23.8)
0.1698
(25.2)
DJ LeMahieu 0.0979
0.1344
(21.0)
0.1342
(21.6)
0.1375
(21.2)
0.1321
(22.4)
0.1336
(19.3)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cody Bellinger 0.1243 0.1709 25.4
2 Josh Bell 0.1221 0.0843 23.9
3 Matt Olson 0.1428 0.1764 23.6
4 Juan Soto 0.1694 0.1370 23.6
5 J.P. Crawford 0.1137 0.1473 20.9
6 Matt McLain 0.1089 0.1613 20.8
7 George Springer 0.1558 0.1274 20.0
8 Carlos Correa 0.1364 0.1034 19.6
9 Alejandro Kirk 0.1253 0.0806 19.2
10 Rowdy Tellez 0.1269 0.0741 18.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Olson 0.1297 0.1764 32.2
2 Gunnar Henderson 0.1083 0.1608 31.4
3 Teoscar Hernández 0.1393 0.1032 25.8
4 Cody Bellinger 0.1228 0.1709 25.6
5 Josh Bell 0.1213 0.0843 24.1
6 Austin Riley 0.1298 0.1636 22.7
7 Yandy Díaz 0.1212 0.1583 21.0
8 Bo Bichette 0.1456 0.1148 19.7
9 Ha-Seong Kim 0.1011 0.1342 19.4
10 J.P. Crawford 0.1150 0.1473 19.3

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cody Bellinger 0.1139 0.1709 32.8
2 Juan Soto 0.1790 0.1370 28.3
3 Josh Bell 0.1301 0.0843 27.1
4 Miguel Cabrera 0.1261 0.0568 24.9
5 Alejandro Kirk 0.1390 0.0806 23.8
6 George Springer 0.1634 0.1274 23.2
7 Carlos Correa 0.1442 0.1034 22.5
8 Gunnar Henderson 0.1266 0.1608 22.5
9 Jorge Mateo 0.1050 0.1657 21.9
10 Rowdy Tellez 0.1384 0.0741 21.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cody Bellinger 0.1144 0.1709 28.2
2 Josh Bell 0.1243 0.0843 28.2
3 Juan Soto 0.1684 0.1370 26.2
4 Gunnar Henderson 0.1158 0.1608 24.5
5 Alejandro Kirk 0.1305 0.0806 23.5
6 Rowdy Tellez 0.1309 0.0741 21.9
7 Carlos Correa 0.1348 0.1034 21.5
8 Matt McLain 0.1026 0.1613 21.4
9 Mauricio Dubón 0.1073 0.1545 20.4
10 J.P. Crawford 0.1098 0.1473 20.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Olson 0.1346 0.1764 31.1
2 Daulton Varsho 0.1536 0.1119 23.4
3 Nico Hoerner 0.1109 0.1424 22.7
4 Ha-Seong Kim 0.0994 0.1342 22.7
5 J.P. Crawford 0.1138 0.1473 22.3
6 Esteury Ruiz 0.1379 0.0946 20.9
7 Teoscar Hernández 0.1349 0.1032 20.5
8 Yandy Díaz 0.1257 0.1583 20.4
9 Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.1767 0.1433 20.3
10 Matt McLain 0.1151 0.1613 19.2

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Gunnar Henderson 0.1083 0.1321 0.1608 31.4 17.3 14.1
2 Nick Fortes 0.1468 0.1139 0.1022 15.1 4.1 11.0
3 Joey Meneses 0.1289 0.1153 0.1081 15.0 5.3 9.8
4 Ezequiel Tovar 0.1101 0.1288 0.1285 10.0 0.7 9.3
5 Corbin Carroll 0.1161 0.1316 0.1798 39.8 30.6 9.2
6 Teoscar Hernández 0.1393 0.1273 0.1032 25.8 16.9 9.0
7 Tim Anderson 0.1562 0.1404 0.0992 30.9 22.0 8.9
8 Matt Olson 0.1297 0.1428 0.1764 32.2 23.6 8.6
9 Brandon Drury 0.1347 0.1197 0.1166 10.5 2.0 8.5
10 Patrick Bailey 0.1261 0.1044 0.0822 16.2 8.2 8.1

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Miguel Cabrera 0.1261 0.0830 0.0568 24.9 10.0 14.9
2 Cody Bellinger 0.1139 0.1243 0.1709 32.8 25.4 7.4
3 Adolis García 0.1150 0.1234 0.1709 36.5 29.5 7.1
4 Masataka Yoshida 0.1504 0.1356 0.1224 15.1 8.1 7.0
5 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.1665 0.1538 0.1144 34.2 27.5 6.7
6 Patrick Bailey 0.1261 0.1044 0.0822 14.8 8.2 6.7
7 Andrew Vaughn 0.1351 0.1215 0.1089 14.9 8.2 6.6
8 Joey Meneses 0.1282 0.1153 0.1081 11.9 5.3 6.6
9 Ty France 0.1388 0.1275 0.1188 12.0 6.3 5.7
10 Ezequiel Tovar 0.1406 0.1288 0.1285 6.3 0.7 5.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 CJ Abrams 0.1010 0.1181 0.1352 17.5 9.9 7.5
2 Gunnar Henderson 0.1158 0.1321 0.1608 24.5 17.3 7.2
3 Nolan Arenado 0.1304 0.1261 0.1160 12.3 6.7 5.6
4 Miguel Cabrera 0.0930 0.0830 0.0568 15.5 10.0 5.5
5 Mookie Betts 0.1564 0.1687 0.1818 13.7 8.5 5.2
6 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1357 0.1282 0.1036 15.7 10.6 5.1
7 Will Benson 0.1062 0.1261 0.1550 14.2 9.2 5.0
8 James Outman 0.1162 0.1296 0.1517 16.9 12.0 4.9
9 Ozzie Albies 0.1238 0.1360 0.1455 10.5 5.7 4.9
10 Pete Alonso 0.1414 0.1391 0.1398 4.8 0.1 4.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ha-Seong Kim 0.0994 0.1150 0.1342 22.7 11.4 11.2
2 Maikel Garcia 0.1350 0.1146 0.1146 9.8 0.5 9.3
3 Nolan Gorman 0.1491 0.1288 0.1272 9.5 1.2 8.4
4 Miguel Rojas 0.0922 0.1078 0.1158 10.6 3.0 7.6
5 Matt Olson 0.1346 0.1428 0.1764 31.1 23.6 7.6
6 Daulton Varsho 0.1536 0.1385 0.1119 23.4 15.9 7.5
7 Byron Buxton 0.1771 0.1536 0.1412 12.0 4.6 7.4
8 Nico Hoerner 0.1109 0.1190 0.1424 22.7 15.6 7.1
9 Esteury Ruiz 0.1379 0.1219 0.0946 20.9 14.0 6.9
10 Spencer Steer 0.1370 0.1248 0.1113 16.2 9.6 6.6

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Ty France 0.0872
0.1255
(24.9)
0.1241
(26.6)
0.1219
(23.1)
0.1234
(26.5)
0.1311
(25.1)
Jonah Heim 0.1896
0.1157
(37.4)
0.1096
(38.5)
0.1219
(33.9)
0.1118
(37.2)
0.1134
(41.2)
Corey Seager 0.1791
0.1312
(26.1)
0.1311
(24.0)
0.1318
(25.4)
0.1297
(24.5)
0.1320
(28.5)
Andrew Benintendi 0.0725
0.1143
(25.5)
0.1128
(27.0)
0.1099
(23.2)
0.1150
(28.7)
0.1178
(24.4)
Josh Lowe 0.1657
0.1080
(29.2)
0.0915
(35.6)
0.1072
(29.3)
0.1031
(29.5)
0.1138
(29.0)
Alec Bohm 0.1588
0.1169
(26.0)
0.1152
(24.7)
0.1190
(24.3)
0.1127
(25.9)
0.1190
(28.0)
Cody Bellinger 0.1745
0.1224
(29.4)
0.1170
(30.2)
0.1227
(28.8)
0.1206
(27.9)
0.1238
(31.5)
Max Muncy 0.1813
0.1355
(27.0)
0.1308
(27.4)
0.1383
(24.9)
0.1341
(25.2)
0.1342
(30.8)
J.D. Martinez 0.2150
0.1393
(36.6)
0.1236
(42.3)
0.1441
(34.0)
0.1325
(37.8)
0.1413
(38.2)
Josh Naylor 0.1960
0.1412
(27.5)
0.1263
(32.9)
0.1448
(25.3)
0.1366
(27.6)
0.1420
(29.7)
Cedric Mullins 0.1626
0.1006
(28.6)
0.0944
(29.6)
0.0964
(30.1)
0.0960
(28.6)
0.1094
(27.0)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Olson 0.1560 0.1931 27.2
2 Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.1653 0.1228 26.5
3 Tim Anderson 0.0981 0.0477 26.0
4 José Ramírez 0.1541 0.1158 26.0
5 Jeremy Peña 0.1224 0.0820 25.1
6 Daulton Varsho 0.1486 0.1050 24.9
7 Matt Chapman 0.1349 0.0929 23.9
8 Xander Bogaerts 0.1232 0.0872 23.4
9 Isaac Paredes 0.1332 0.1716 22.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Ramírez 0.1661 0.1158 37.0
2 Isaac Paredes 0.1046 0.1716 36.5
3 Spencer Torkelson 0.0845 0.1374 34.0
4 Dominic Smith 0.1284 0.0785 31.1
5 Matt Olson 0.1507 0.1931 28.2
6 Tim Anderson 0.0979 0.0477 28.0
7 Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.1603 0.1228 25.8
8 Zach McKinstry 0.1122 0.0676 24.7
9 Xander Bogaerts 0.1206 0.0872 24.3

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Xander Bogaerts 0.1345 0.0872 31.4
2 Jeremy Peña 0.1283 0.0820 29.3
3 Tim Anderson 0.1025 0.0477 28.7
4 Matt Chapman 0.1392 0.0929 26.9
5 Matt Olson 0.1559 0.1931 26.8
6 Hunter Renfroe 0.1574 0.1095 26.3
7 Dominic Smith 0.1218 0.0785 25.4
8 Ozzie Albies 0.1299 0.1652 23.2
9 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.1717 0.1378 23.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Olson 0.1440 0.1931 32.7
2 Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.1684 0.1228 31.3
3 Tim Anderson 0.0972 0.0477 27.8
4 José Ramírez 0.1477 0.1158 24.5
5 Isaac Paredes 0.1252 0.1716 24.4
6 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.1689 0.1378 23.7
7 Gleyber Torres 0.1328 0.1012 23.7
8 Hunter Renfroe 0.1487 0.1095 23.5
9 Ozzie Albies 0.1265 0.1652 23.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Daulton Varsho 0.1704 0.1050 34.5
2 José Ramírez 0.1695 0.1158 33.0
3 Carlos Santana 0.0969 0.1389 29.8
4 MJ Melendez 0.1436 0.0930 26.8
5 Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.1698 0.1228 25.9
6 George Springer 0.1494 0.1054 25.9
7 Adam Frazier 0.0842 0.1319 24.5
8 Jeremy Peña 0.1265 0.0820 24.4
9 Juan Soto 0.1259 0.1540 24.1

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Spencer Torkelson 0.0845 0.1174 0.1374 34.0 14.2 19.8
2 Spencer Steer 0.1004 0.1309 0.1293 17.1 0.6 16.6
3 Isaac Paredes 0.1046 0.1332 0.1716 36.5 22.4 14.1
4 Brice Turang 0.1208 0.0945 0.0759 21.5 8.0 13.6
5 Trea Turner 0.1313 0.1171 0.1100 16.9 4.4 12.5
6 LaMonte Wade Jr. 0.1209 0.1022 0.0867 19.4 7.7 11.7
7 Kerry Carpenter 0.1034 0.1326 0.1394 15.1 3.5 11.6
8 Teoscar Hernández 0.1584 0.1459 0.1372 16.5 5.4 11.1
9 José Ramírez 0.1661 0.1541 0.1158 37.0 26.0 11.0
10 Andruw Monasterio 0.1208 0.0918 0.0857 12.1 1.7 10.4

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Andruw Monasterio 0.1208 0.0918 0.0857 11.1 1.7 9.4
2 Xander Bogaerts 0.1345 0.1232 0.0872 31.4 23.4 8.0
3 Miguel Cabrera 0.1208 0.1011 0.0919 10.7 3.1 7.6
4 Keibert Ruiz 0.1325 0.1191 0.1192 7.5 0.5 7.0
5 Alex Verdugo 0.1252 0.1156 0.0897 21.3 15.1 6.2
6 Rafael Devers 0.1414 0.1516 0.1524 7.2 1.0 6.2
7 Corbin Carroll 0.1058 0.1154 0.1178 7.8 2.1 5.7
8 Dansby Swanson 0.1068 0.1162 0.1254 11.8 6.3 5.5
9 Nathaniel Lowe 0.1363 0.1295 0.1133 16.7 11.2 5.5
10 Julio Rodríguez 0.1298 0.1380 0.1443 10.3 5.0 5.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Corbin Carroll 0.0972 0.1154 0.1178 11.0 2.1 8.9
2 Ha-Seong Kim 0.1115 0.1065 0.0958 12.1 6.2 5.9
3 Matt Vierling 0.1023 0.0956 0.0830 12.2 6.3 5.9
4 Masataka Yoshida 0.1392 0.1335 0.1241 10.8 5.0 5.9
5 Spencer Steer 0.1163 0.1309 0.1293 6.2 0.6 5.7
6 Matt Olson 0.1440 0.1560 0.1931 32.7 27.2 5.5
7 Yordan Alvarez 0.1619 0.1773 0.1956 14.9 9.5 5.4
8 Nathaniel Lowe 0.1325 0.1295 0.1133 16.5 11.2 5.3
9 Josh Jung 0.1208 0.1346 0.1359 5.9 1.1 4.8
10 Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.1684 0.1653 0.1228 31.3 26.5 4.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Seiya Suzuki 0.1073 0.1247 0.1269 15.0 1.7 13.3
2 Carlos Santana 0.0969 0.1115 0.1389 29.8 17.5 12.3
3 Freddie Freeman 0.1634 0.1429 0.1397 12.8 1.8 11.0
4 Jack Suwinski 0.1038 0.1187 0.1386 21.8 11.0 10.8
5 Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.0817 0.0960 0.1162 21.3 11.0 10.3
6 Corbin Carroll 0.1431 0.1154 0.1178 12.4 2.1 10.3
7 Juan Soto 0.1259 0.1351 0.1540 24.1 13.9 10.3
8 Joey Meneses 0.1237 0.1339 0.1355 11.7 1.5 10.2
9 Daulton Varsho 0.1704 0.1486 0.1050 34.5 24.9 9.5
10 Esteury Ruiz 0.1303 0.1057 0.0946 14.7 5.2 9.5

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Shohei Ohtani 0.3038
0.2591
(24.3)
0.2568
(25.6)
0.2555
(26.4)
0.2616
(22.5)
0.2601
(24.2)
Corey Seager 0.3270
0.2747
(25.9)
0.2652
(30.8)
0.2720
(27.2)
0.2821
(21.6)
0.2700
(28.9)
Luis Arraez 0.3537
0.3022
(29.2)
0.2976
(31.9)
0.2977
(31.9)
0.2978
(31.6)
0.3111
(24.3)
Tim Anderson 0.2454
0.2882
(24.6)
0.2953
(28.4)
0.2861
(23.5)
0.2854
(23.4)
0.2930
(26.6)
Josh Lowe 0.2918
0.2262
(30.8)
0.2355
(26.0)
0.2276
(30.1)
0.2239
(31.8)
0.2271
(30.8)
Kyle Schwarber 0.1966
0.2319
(28.4)
0.2320
(28.6)
0.2267
(24.8)
0.2340
(30.2)
0.2350
(29.9)
Cody Bellinger 0.3066
0.2296
(40.5)
0.2095
(51.6)
0.2245
(43.3)
0.2345
(37.5)
0.2296
(41.0)
Pete Alonso 0.2165
0.2607
(31.8)
0.2613
(32.3)
0.2597
(31.1)
0.2614
(32.5)
0.2611
(31.4)
José Abreu 0.2370
0.2749
(25.0)
0.2835
(30.2)
0.2728
(23.7)
0.2727
(23.9)
0.2793
(27.0)
Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.3375
0.2726
(44.6)
0.2642
(50.6)
0.2704
(46.2)
0.2733
(43.8)
0.2742
(44.1)
Yandy Díaz 0.3295
0.2780
(28.4)
0.2731
(31.2)
0.2797
(27.3)
0.2817
(25.9)
0.2725
(32.3)
Carlos Correa 0.2296
0.2727
(27.4)
0.2759
(29.4)
0.2705
(26.2)
0.2711
(26.8)
0.2764
(29.0)
Brenton Doyle 0.2030
0.2570
(25.0)
0.2557
(24.6)
0.2651
(28.6)
0.2542
(24.0)
0.2516
(22.3)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt McLain 0.2209 0.2904 26.3
2 Giancarlo Stanton 0.2457 0.1914 24.3
3 Corbin Carroll 0.2443 0.2850 23.5
4 William Contreras 0.2468 0.2889 23.2
5 Freddie Freeman 0.2958 0.3312 22.8
6 Jon Berti 0.2366 0.2938 22.5
7 Miguel Vargas 0.2639 0.1953 22.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Volpe 0.2557 0.2089 30.8
2 Trea Turner 0.3032 0.2660 28.7
3 Josh Naylor 0.2511 0.3075 25.8
4 Bryson Stott 0.2369 0.2803 25.0
5 Mookie Betts 0.2664 0.3065 24.8
6 Jarred Kelenic 0.1914 0.2527 23.7
7 Giancarlo Stanton 0.2434 0.1914 23.4

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.2488 0.1914 25.6
2 Corbin Carroll 0.2427 0.2850 24.5
3 Freddie Freeman 0.2938 0.3312 24.3
4 Miguel Vargas 0.2674 0.1953 23.2
5 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.2925 0.2641 22.2
6 Ezequiel Tovar 0.2848 0.2530 22.1
7 William Contreras 0.2495 0.2889 21.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt McLain 0.2100 0.2904 30.6
2 Corbin Carroll 0.2369 0.2850 28.1
3 Giancarlo Stanton 0.2470 0.1914 25.0
4 William Contreras 0.2447 0.2889 24.2
5 Spencer Steer 0.2320 0.2715 23.2
6 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.2916 0.2641 21.9
7 Jon Berti 0.2395 0.2938 21.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trea Turner 0.3010 0.2660 26.4
2 Jon Berti 0.2303 0.2938 25.6
3 Freddie Freeman 0.2935 0.3312 25.2
4 Willy Adames 0.2523 0.2170 24.6
5 William Contreras 0.2461 0.2889 24.2
6 Mookie Betts 0.2695 0.3065 23.4
7 Josh Naylor 0.2581 0.3075 22.9

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Paul Goldschmidt 0.2959 0.2742 0.2681 22.0 7.0 15.0
2 Joey Wiemer 0.2557 0.2241 0.2044 22.8 9.8 13.0
3 Teoscar Hernández 0.2754 0.2505 0.2576 15.0 2.0 13.0
4 Jarred Kelenic 0.1914 0.2228 0.2527 23.7 10.7 13.0
5 Anthony Volpe 0.2557 0.2351 0.2089 30.8 18.2 12.5
6 Carlos Santana 0.2143 0.2336 0.2400 13.2 1.4 11.8
7 Tyler Stephenson 0.2819 0.2601 0.2430 22.3 11.0 11.4
8 Cody Bellinger 0.2095 0.2296 0.3066 51.6 40.5 11.0
9 Isaac Paredes 0.2182 0.2364 0.2500 15.7 5.4 10.3
10 Elias Díaz 0.2364 0.2560 0.2675 14.1 3.9 10.2

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Moustakas 0.2164 0.2354 0.2472 10.2 2.9 7.3
2 Zach Neto 0.2557 0.2389 0.2249 11.5 6.0 5.6
3 Marcus Semien 0.2493 0.2559 0.2761 17.0 12.1 4.9
4 Matt Olson 0.2495 0.2560 0.2829 21.0 16.4 4.6
5 Ezequiel Tovar 0.2848 0.2780 0.2530 22.1 17.9 4.2
6 José Ramírez 0.2619 0.2679 0.2815 10.6 6.6 4.1
7 Brandon Belt 0.2218 0.2319 0.2537 11.2 7.1 4.1
8 Will Brennan 0.2777 0.2689 0.2662 7.1 3.1 4.0
9 Joey Wiemer 0.2333 0.2241 0.2044 13.6 9.8 3.8
10 Anthony Santander 0.2437 0.2492 0.2572 6.1 2.5 3.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kyle Tucker 0.2894 0.2797 0.2840 6.8 0.1 6.7
2 Spencer Steer 0.2320 0.2409 0.2715 23.2 17.6 5.6
3 Patrick Bailey 0.1887 0.2034 0.2331 14.1 9.0 5.0
4 Corbin Carroll 0.2369 0.2443 0.2850 28.1 23.5 4.5
5 Max Muncy 0.2350 0.2278 0.2116 16.2 11.8 4.4
6 Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.2823 0.2758 0.2574 18.7 14.3 4.4
7 Matt McLain 0.2100 0.2209 0.2904 30.6 26.3 4.2
8 Anthony Rizzo 0.2509 0.2431 0.2440 4.9 1.4 3.5
9 Juan Soto 0.2833 0.2790 0.2746 9.4 6.0 3.4
10 Josh Jung 0.2335 0.2398 0.2657 14.2 11.2 3.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Yuli Gurriel 0.3060 0.2762 0.2450 21.2 11.6 9.5
2 Kyle Tucker 0.2696 0.2797 0.2840 7.5 0.1 7.4
3 Trea Turner 0.3010 0.2895 0.2660 26.4 19.1 7.3
4 Matt Vierling 0.2391 0.2517 0.2610 9.9 2.7 7.1
5 Daulton Varsho 0.2547 0.2420 0.2201 21.9 15.1 6.8
6 Justin Turner 0.2847 0.2732 0.2760 7.5 0.8 6.7
7 Lars Nootbaar 0.2279 0.2396 0.2606 14.8 8.4 6.4
8 Jack Suwinski 0.2429 0.2306 0.2237 11.9 5.9 6.0
9 Ketel Marte 0.2827 0.2729 0.2759 6.5 0.7 5.8
10 Jurickson Profar 0.2694 0.2575 0.2418 16.0 10.3 5.7

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Colin Rea 517
4
(512.8)
134
(383.0)
100
(417.0)
4
(512.8)
100
(417.0)
Eric Lauer 211
646
(435.3)
627
(416.0)
688
(476.7)
666
(455.2)
585
(374.0)
Marco Gonzales 215
720
(504.6)
693
(478.0)
770
(555.2)
727
(511.6)
662
(447.0)
Johnny Cueto 218
652
(433.6)
612
(394.0)
664
(446.5)
669
(451.4)
621
(403.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Max Fried 766 311 455.5
2 Brandon Woodruff 694 253 440.9
3 Bryce Elder 326 732 406.4
4 Nestor Cortes 668 266 401.6
5 Tanner Bibee 186 585 399.3
6 José Urquidy 660 275 385.4
7 Alek Manoah 794 415 379.4
8 Cole Irvin 715 336 378.6
9 Bryan Woo 4 371 366.5
10 J.P. France 215 581 366.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kodai Senga 100 694 594.0
2 Tanner Bibee 100 585 485.0
3 J.P. France 100 581 481.0
4 Hunter Brown 194 665 471.0
5 Clarke Schmidt 253 694 441.0
6 Logan Allen 100 537 437.0
7 Bryce Miller 100 537 437.0
8 Jake Irvin 100 530 430.0
9 Johan Oviedo 354 781 427.0
10 Grayson Rodriguez 100 515 415.0

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tanner Bibee 62 585 523.0
2 Bryce Elder 210 732 522.4
3 Max Fried 796 311 485.1
4 Brandon Woodruff 736 253 482.6
5 Luis Medina 24 495 471.0
6 José Urquidy 737 275 462.2
7 Jake Irvin 72 530 458.2
8 Nestor Cortes 720 266 454.1
9 J.P. France 128 581 453.0
10 Dane Dunning 273 722 449.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bryce Elder 151 732 580.8
2 Tanner Bibee 4 585 580.8
3 J.P. France 93 581 488.3
4 Max Fried 793 311 482.4
5 Brandon Woodruff 710 253 457.0
6 Andrew Abbott 4 459 454.6
7 Nestor Cortes 717 266 450.7
8 Luis Medina 52 495 442.6
9 Bryce Miller 101 537 436.4
10 Corey Kluber 685 257 427.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Max Fried 710 311 399.0
2 Brandon Woodruff 636 253 383.0
3 Seth Lugo 234 604 370.0
4 Ryan Feltner 568 201 367.0
5 Clarke Schmidt 336 694 358.0
6 Carlos Rodón 644 286 358.0
7 Brad Keller 561 211 350.0
8 Cole Irvin 676 336 340.0
9 Chris Murphy 548 212 336.0
10 Alek Manoah 745 415 330.0

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kodai Senga 100 611 694 594.0 83.5 510.5
2 Grayson Rodriguez 100 503 515 415.0 12.0 403.0
3 Brandon Pfaadt 100 462 421 321.0 41.4 279.6
4 Hunter Brown 194 455 665 471.0 210.0 261.0
5 Daniel Lynch IV 598 370 223 375.0 147.2 227.8
6 Logan Allen 100 314 537 437.0 222.8 214.2
7 Ryne Nelson 295 504 619 324.0 115.2 208.8
8 Eury Pérez 100 307 374 274.0 67.1 206.9
9 Tarik Skubal 559 355 310 249.0 45.1 203.9
10 Brandon Williamson 100 304 491 391.0 187.4 203.6

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brandon Williamson 78 304 491 412.8 187.4 225.4
2 Logan Allen 100 314 537 437.0 222.8 214.2
3 Ryan Weathers 38 263 257 218.5 5.8 212.7
4 Javier Assad 164 372 449 285.1 76.9 208.2
5 Adam Wainwright 100 665 484 384.0 181.0 203.0
6 Tommy Henry 97 299 381 284.0 81.6 202.4
7 Bryce Miller 100 302 537 437.0 234.7 202.3
8 Jake Irvin 72 244 530 458.2 286.4 171.8
9 Peter Lambert 133 301 375 241.6 73.8 167.8
10 Collin McHugh 100 262 268 168.0 6.3 161.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Bryan Hoeing 4 243 304 299.6 60.8 238.8
2 Quinn Priester 4 229 234 229.6 5.3 224.3
3 Cody Bradford 4 228 234 229.7 6.3 223.3
4 Taj Bradley 40 256 460 420.4 203.5 216.8
5 Osvaldo Bido 4 221 236 231.5 15.3 216.3
6 Bryce Miller 101 302 537 436.4 234.7 201.7
7 Logan Allen 118 314 537 418.7 222.8 195.8
8 Tanner Bibee 4 186 585 580.8 399.3 181.5
9 Shintaro Fujinami 751 572 357 394.1 215.5 178.7
10 Jesse Scholtens 17 195 377 360.0 182.5 177.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Murphy 548 234 212 336.0 21.9 314.1
2 Louis Varland 551 273 283 268.0 10.2 257.8
3 Hyun Jin Ryu 487 217 224 263.0 7.0 256.0
4 Ryan Weathers 509 263 257 252.0 5.8 246.2
5 Bryse Wilson 583 341 314 269.0 27.0 242.0
6 Adrián Martinez 542 303 241 301.0 62.2 238.8
7 Dakota Hudson 632 406 354 278.0 52.5 225.5
8 Matthew Liberatore 599 380 275 324.0 105.5 218.5
9 Quinn Priester 453 229 234 219.0 5.3 213.7
10 Chase Silseth 451 239 221 230.0 18.2 211.8

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Mitch Keller 0.2545
0.2011
(40.3)
0.2064
(41.1)
0.1995
(40.7)
0.1978
(41.0)
0.2062
(40.5)
Shane Bieber 0.2008
0.2580
(32.9)
0.2684
(35.2)
0.2533
(31.1)
0.2506
(30.3)
0.2700
(36.6)
J.P. France 0.1738
0.2493
(46.5)
0.2318
(32.7)
0.2469
(45.8)
0.2526
(49.9)
0.2482
(42.8)
Corbin Burnes 0.2551
0.3015
(40.0)
0.3028
(36.1)
0.3009
(40.4)
0.2982
(39.4)
0.3054
(38.9)
Merrill Kelly 0.2590
0.2014
(38.3)
0.2149
(33.0)
0.2016
(37.3)
0.2006
(37.0)
0.2021
(41.6)
Nick Pivetta 0.3118
0.2207
(50.7)
0.2368
(45.0)
0.2160
(52.9)
0.2194
(50.1)
0.2268
(50.3)
Pablo López 0.2921
0.2377
(39.9)
0.2418
(41.6)
0.2340
(41.9)
0.2349
(40.2)
0.2442
(38.9)
Cristian Javier 0.2314
0.2920
(44.8)
0.2907
(39.6)
0.2880
(42.8)
0.2857
(42.1)
0.3024
(48.3)
Félix Bautista 0.4641
0.3144
(34.4)
0.2731
(45.7)
0.3135
(34.3)
0.3158
(33.5)
0.3140
(35.8)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tylor Megill 0.2655 0.1852 48.2
2 Justin Verlander 0.2753 0.2152 43.2
3 Zach Eflin 0.2043 0.2646 39.2
4 Gerrit Cole 0.3111 0.2704 37.2
5 Taj Bradley 0.1977 0.2804 35.9
6 Andrew Heaney 0.2847 0.2356 34.4
7 Luis Severino 0.2602 0.1894 31.4
8 Ryne Nelson 0.2010 0.1551 31.3
9 Adam Wainwright 0.1720 0.1136 30.5
10 Fernando Cruz 0.2378 0.3513 30.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryne Nelson 0.2271 0.1551 43.6
2 Spencer Strider 0.3143 0.3683 42.4
3 Kodai Senga 0.2318 0.2911 42.3
4 Adam Wainwright 0.1994 0.1136 40.7
5 Austin Gomber 0.2090 0.1443 38.0
6 Trevor Williams 0.2222 0.1684 34.4
7 Joe Ryan 0.2439 0.2932 34.2
8 Aroldis Chapman 0.2780 0.4137 34.2
9 Kyle Freeland 0.1910 0.1388 34.2
10 Luis Ortiz 0.2315 0.1475 33.0

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Wainwright 0.2318 0.1136 60.0
2 Tylor Megill 0.2689 0.1852 50.7
3 Justin Verlander 0.2773 0.2152 45.4
4 Zach Eflin 0.2006 0.2646 41.0
5 Taj Bradley 0.1917 0.2804 38.2
6 Gerrit Cole 0.3075 0.2704 35.2
7 Luis Severino 0.2630 0.1894 33.1
8 Jesse Scholtens 0.2318 0.1538 31.5
9 Andrew Heaney 0.2790 0.2356 31.5
10 Kevin Gausman 0.2642 0.3106 31.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tylor Megill 0.2696 0.1852 51.9
2 Justin Verlander 0.2753 0.2152 44.9
3 Zach Eflin 0.2008 0.2646 39.8
4 Taj Bradley 0.1880 0.2804 39.2
5 Gerrit Cole 0.3095 0.2704 37.9
6 Luis Severino 0.2646 0.1894 34.3
7 Andrew Heaney 0.2803 0.2356 33.2
8 Alex Wood 0.2414 0.1725 32.6
9 Patrick Sandoval 0.2358 0.1963 30.4
10 Patrick Corbin 0.1883 0.1570 30.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tylor Megill 0.2581 0.1852 40.9
2 Justin Verlander 0.2731 0.2152 38.3
3 Ryne Nelson 0.2170 0.1551 37.9
4 Zach Eflin 0.2114 0.2646 37.8
5 Andrew Heaney 0.2947 0.2356 37.5
6 Gerrit Cole 0.3164 0.2704 37.2
7 Fernando Cruz 0.2271 0.3513 34.8
8 Kyle Muller 0.2429 0.1505 34.1
9 Cole Ragans 0.2029 0.2883 33.7
10 Joe Ryan 0.2439 0.2932 33.5

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kodai Senga 0.2318 0.2610 0.2911 42.3 17.7 24.6
2 Chris Sale 0.2376 0.2852 0.2941 24.7 1.8 22.9
3 Trevor Williams 0.2222 0.1843 0.1684 34.4 13.5 20.9
4 Jake Irvin 0.2318 0.1767 0.1868 23.0 2.9 20.0
5 Michael King 0.2510 0.2933 0.2947 19.5 1.4 18.1
6 Ty Blach 0.2039 0.1463 0.1420 21.2 3.1 18.1
7 Reid Detmers 0.2238 0.2439 0.2609 24.9 8.0 16.9
8 Spencer Strider 0.3143 0.3302 0.3683 42.4 25.6 16.8
9 Hunter Brown 0.2371 0.2552 0.2677 21.4 5.2 16.2
10 Matt Brash 0.2448 0.2905 0.3474 32.1 16.1 16.0

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adam Wainwright 0.2318 0.1720 0.1136 60.0 30.5 29.5
2 Quinn Priester 0.2318 0.1719 0.1538 19.6 5.3 14.3
3 Luis Medina 0.1792 0.2005 0.2141 14.5 4.5 10.0
4 Corey Kluber 0.2318 0.1977 0.1634 19.0 10.0 9.1
5 Seth Lugo 0.2094 0.2296 0.2318 10.0 1.4 8.6
6 Colin Rea 0.2318 0.1996 0.2128 12.8 4.4 8.4
7 Hunter Brown 0.2418 0.2552 0.2677 13.4 5.2 8.1
8 Jesse Scholtens 0.2318 0.2139 0.1538 31.5 24.4 7.2
9 Aaron Loup 0.2318 0.2051 0.1948 9.9 3.4 6.4
10 Bryan Hoeing 0.2318 0.1269 0.1743 19.2 13.0 6.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Bryce Miller 0.2450 0.2346 0.2216 16.4 9.4 6.9
2 Andrew Abbott 0.2173 0.2341 0.2614 17.0 10.4 6.6
3 Freddy Peralta 0.2592 0.2711 0.3088 28.9 22.5 6.4
4 Gavin Williams 0.2101 0.2263 0.2348 6.1 1.3 4.7
5 Bryce Elder 0.2093 0.2053 0.1749 30.4 25.7 4.7
6 Jesse Scholtens 0.2235 0.2139 0.1538 28.9 24.4 4.6
7 Alec Marsh 0.1804 0.1957 0.2485 20.9 16.5 4.4
8 Eury Pérez 0.2075 0.2214 0.2888 27.8 23.5 4.3
9 Chris Flexen 0.1856 0.1790 0.1588 15.8 11.6 4.2
10 Michael King 0.2748 0.2933 0.2947 5.5 1.4 4.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Seth Lugo 0.2607 0.2296 0.2318 17.0 1.4 15.6
2 Michael King 0.3317 0.2933 0.2947 15.7 1.4 14.3
3 Bobby Miller 0.1925 0.2132 0.2356 22.1 9.0 13.1
4 Grayson Rodriguez 0.2913 0.2609 0.2505 20.7 7.7 13.0
5 Kodai Senga 0.2491 0.2610 0.2911 29.6 17.7 11.9
6 Trevor Williams 0.2047 0.1843 0.1684 23.4 13.5 10.0
7 Logan Gilbert 0.2253 0.2329 0.2455 16.1 6.1 9.9
8 Gregory Santos 0.1905 0.2180 0.2284 11.1 1.7 9.5
9 Jack Flaherty 0.2471 0.2286 0.2277 12.2 3.6 8.6
10 Clarke Schmidt 0.2440 0.2266 0.2147 19.9 11.4 8.5

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Justin Steele 0.5333
0.2981
(156.2)
0.1500
(231.5)
0.3011
(160.3)
0.3396
(124.6)
0.2609
(196.4)
Zach Eflin 0.5161
0.3313
(118.0)
0.1562
(210.8)
0.3166
(134.4)
0.3445
(106.8)
0.3333
(129.8)
Spencer Strider 0.6250
0.3760
(177.0)
0.2250
(259.4)
0.3859
(176.0)
0.4238
(138.4)
0.3333
(223.9)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 J.P. France 0.0681 0.4583 216.8
2 Bryce Elder 0.1295 0.3871 176.1
3 Dane Dunning 0.1014 0.3429 162.1
4 Bobby Miller 0.1734 0.5000 156.3
5 Dylan Cease 0.3906 0.2121 153.3
6 Michael Wacha 0.2999 0.5833 147.3
7 Zack Greinke 0.2819 0.0667 137.7
8 Miles Mikolas 0.3982 0.2571 135.9
9 Sandy Alcantara 0.4077 0.2500 133.1
10 Bryce Miller 0.0768 0.3200 121.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zac Gallen 0.2143 0.5000 190.9
2 Michael Wacha 0.2105 0.5833 172.9
3 Mitch Keller 0.1395 0.4062 170.5
4 Brayan Bello 0.1176 0.4286 167.6
5 Bryce Elder 0.1212 0.3871 150.7
6 Kyle Bradish 0.1282 0.4000 142.1
7 Kyle Gibson 0.2250 0.4545 136.8
8 Taijuan Walker 0.2439 0.4839 131.9
9 Eduardo Rodriguez 0.2286 0.5000 131.3
10 Blake Snell 0.2051 0.4375 127.8

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 J.P. France 0.0620 0.4583 225.4
2 Bobby Miller 0.1373 0.5000 179.0
3 Dane Dunning 0.0876 0.3429 178.2
4 Bryce Elder 0.1465 0.3871 170.0
5 Sandy Alcantara 0.4448 0.2500 154.8
6 Miles Mikolas 0.4156 0.2571 143.5
7 Reid Detmers 0.3562 0.1429 142.8
8 Dylan Cease 0.3799 0.2121 138.1
9 Eduardo Rodriguez 0.2740 0.5000 135.2
10 Zack Greinke 0.2824 0.0667 132.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 J.P. France 0.0525 0.4583 224.3
2 Bryce Elder 0.0707 0.3871 217.2
3 Bobby Miller 0.1393 0.5000 172.2
4 Dane Dunning 0.0869 0.3429 170.5
5 Zack Greinke 0.2950 0.0667 147.1
6 Reid Detmers 0.3430 0.1429 141.6
7 Michael Wacha 0.3090 0.5833 140.8
8 Dylan Cease 0.3715 0.2121 140.5
9 Hunter Brown 0.1301 0.3548 136.3
10 Bryce Miller 0.0512 0.3200 133.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Michael Wacha 0.2174 0.5833 203.4
2 J.P. France 0.1429 0.4583 184.3
3 Kyle Gibson 0.2308 0.4545 182.1
4 Zac Gallen 0.3103 0.5000 162.0
5 Dylan Cease 0.4194 0.2121 161.0
6 Mitch Keller 0.2143 0.4062 159.9
7 Seth Lugo 0.0588 0.3077 151.4
8 Eduardo Rodriguez 0.2800 0.5000 137.7
9 Kyle Bradish 0.2000 0.4000 135.4
10 Nathan Eovaldi 0.2500 0.4800 133.8

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Luis Castillo 0.2105 0.3957 0.4242 123.2 9.3 113.9
2 Blake Snell 0.2051 0.4001 0.4375 127.8 15.1 112.7
3 Brayan Bello 0.1176 0.3269 0.4286 167.6 56.6 111.0
4 Zach Eflin 0.1562 0.3313 0.5161 210.8 118.0 92.8
5 Kodai Senga 0.2287 0.3939 0.4138 86.8 2.0 84.8
6 Spencer Strider 0.2250 0.3760 0.6250 259.4 177.0 82.3
7 Dean Kremer 0.1795 0.3341 0.4062 122.5 40.5 82.0
8 Zac Gallen 0.2143 0.3540 0.5000 190.9 109.2 81.7
9 Justin Steele 0.1500 0.2981 0.5333 231.5 156.2 75.2
10 Jesse Scholtens 0.2287 0.0726 0.0385 94.4 19.3 75.1

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Nick Martinez 0.3480 0.1786 0.0952 120.4 46.3 74.1
2 Jesse Scholtens 0.2287 0.0726 0.0385 74.9 19.3 55.6
3 Jose Cuas 0.2287 0.0505 0.0417 57.1 7.6 49.5
4 Patrick Corbin 0.2260 0.2746 0.3125 61.7 16.5 45.2
5 Albert Abreu 0.2287 0.0648 0.0444 51.6 10.0 41.6
6 Aaron Loup 0.2287 0.0423 0.0364 46.4 5.3 41.1
7 Elvis Peguero 0.2287 0.0594 0.0678 42.7 2.2 40.5
8 Bryan Hoeing 0.2287 0.0897 0.0606 53.6 14.0 39.6
9 David Peterson 0.3196 0.2320 0.1111 106.7 67.9 38.8
10 Drew VerHagen 0.2287 0.0819 0.0833 41.2 4.2 37.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Hunter Brown 0.1301 0.2227 0.3548 136.3 76.6 59.7
2 Luke Weaver 0.2736 0.1718 0.1034 106.9 48.0 58.9
3 Jake Irvin 0.2690 0.1764 0.1250 86.8 36.3 50.6
4 Andrew Heaney 0.3542 0.2857 0.2941 51.2 5.5 45.7
5 Joey Wentz 0.2368 0.1552 0.1200 67.2 25.7 41.5
6 Bryce Elder 0.0707 0.1295 0.3871 217.2 176.1 41.0
7 Rich Hill 0.3050 0.2473 0.2500 49.4 9.4 39.9
8 Jesús Luzardo 0.3462 0.2949 0.3125 39.6 0.5 39.1
9 Lucas Erceg 0.2287 0.0789 0.0800 42.3 4.0 38.3
10 MacKenzie Gore 0.3057 0.2437 0.2593 38.5 0.8 37.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Josh Winckowski 0.2917 0.0770 0.0667 81.9 10.0 71.9
2 Jesús Luzardo 0.2174 0.2949 0.3125 71.8 0.5 71.4
3 Mitch Keller 0.2143 0.2703 0.4062 159.9 98.1 61.8
4 Kyle Gibson 0.2308 0.2876 0.4545 182.1 121.0 61.1
5 Kyle Bradish 0.2000 0.2664 0.4000 135.4 78.3 57.2
6 Alex Wood 0.3810 0.2304 0.1724 88.7 32.2 56.5
7 Michael Wacha 0.2174 0.2999 0.5833 203.4 147.3 56.1
8 Anthony DeSclafani 0.3478 0.1985 0.2105 56.8 2.1 54.7
9 Bryse Wilson 0.2963 0.0871 0.1132 56.9 2.9 54.1
10 Chris Flexen 0.2667 0.1320 0.0690 91.3 37.3 54.0

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Carlos Estévez 0.4921
0.2066
(77.7)
0.0851
(118.2)
0.1080
(104.5)
0.2573
(63.6)
0.2615
(63.7)
Paul Sewald 0.5231
0.2982
(53.7)
0.1875
(86.9)
0.2504
(64.9)
0.2960
(54.5)
0.3479
(42.6)
Daniel Bard 0.0200
0.4287
(96.9)
0.3333
(69.5)
0.3527
(80.0)
0.4078
(91.9)
0.5278
(118.7)
Evan Phillips 0.3871
0.1319
(57.6)
0.0488
(82.3)
0.1080
(62.5)
0.1309
(58.0)
0.1571
(52.9)
Jhoan Duran 0.4576
0.1816
(68.1)
0.1026
(94.0)
0.2003
(62.5)
0.1568
(74.6)
0.1904
(67.1)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Will Smith 0.0324 0.3667 73.5
2 Adbert Alzolay 0.0838 0.3793 72.5
3 Jorge López 0.2759 0.0492 62.7
4 José Leclerc 0.3268 0.0702 61.9
5 Pierce Johnson 0.0127 0.1940 47.7
6 Tanner Banks 0.2004 0.0312 45.4
7 Justin Lawrence 0.0115 0.1594 45.3
8 Michael Fulmer 0.2080 0.0345 43.2
9 Jordan Hicks 0.0273 0.1846 42.3
10 Yonny Chirinos 0.0982 0.0000 39.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 David Bednar 0.1750 0.5909 119.0
2 Alexis Díaz 0.1316 0.5211 115.3
3 Devin Williams 0.1250 0.5902 110.6
4 Alex Lange 0.0213 0.3881 109.5
5 Félix Bautista 0.1463 0.5893 108.2
6 Camilo Doval 0.2340 0.5652 96.9
7 Kyle Finnegan 0.1200 0.4179 89.7
8 Adbert Alzolay 0.0417 0.3793 88.9
9 Trevor May 0.0625 0.4286 77.8
10 Emmanuel Clase 0.3571 0.5867 73.4

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adbert Alzolay 0.0529 0.3793 79.5
2 Trevor May 0.0317 0.4286 78.9
3 Will Smith 0.0309 0.3667 73.2
4 Kyle Finnegan 0.1543 0.4179 72.5
5 Alexis Díaz 0.3086 0.5211 57.3
6 Pierce Johnson 0.0000 0.1940 50.4
7 Jordan Hicks 0.0000 0.1846 49.2
8 José Leclerc 0.2646 0.0702 48.1
9 Justin Lawrence 0.0000 0.1594 48.1
10 Camilo Doval 0.3858 0.5652 47.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adbert Alzolay 0.0655 0.3793 77.3
2 Will Smith 0.0324 0.3667 73.7
3 Tanner Banks 0.3092 0.0312 73.0
4 Jorge López 0.2816 0.0492 64.0
5 José Leclerc 0.3198 0.0702 60.1
6 Yonny Chirinos 0.1408 0.0000 54.7
7 Michael Fulmer 0.2465 0.0345 52.2
8 Pierce Johnson 0.0153 0.1940 47.2
9 Justin Lawrence 0.0170 0.1594 43.7
10 Scott Barlow 0.3420 0.2063 43.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jorge López 0.4479 0.0492 107.1
2 Yonny Chirinos 0.2406 0.0000 89.8
3 José Leclerc 0.4042 0.0702 78.8
4 Tanner Banks 0.3274 0.0312 76.5
5 Will Smith 0.0341 0.3667 74.3
6 David Robertson 0.5278 0.2903 65.0
7 Scott Barlow 0.3790 0.2063 52.8
8 Pierce Johnson 0.0221 0.1940 46.5
9 Michael Fulmer 0.2241 0.0345 45.9
10 Justin Lawrence 0.0170 0.1594 45.1

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 David Bednar 0.1750 0.5058 0.5909 119.0 21.1 97.9
2 Alex Lange 0.0213 0.2849 0.3881 109.5 27.1 82.4
3 Devin Williams 0.1250 0.4407 0.5902 110.6 32.5 78.1
4 Camilo Doval 0.2340 0.4865 0.5652 96.9 19.6 77.3
5 Alexis Díaz 0.1316 0.3755 0.5211 115.3 39.1 76.2
6 Kyle Finnegan 0.1200 0.3573 0.4179 89.7 14.9 74.8
7 Félix Bautista 0.1463 0.4302 0.5893 108.2 35.6 72.6
8 Trevor May 0.0625 0.3312 0.4286 77.8 18.1 59.7
9 Emmanuel Clase 0.3571 0.5004 0.5867 73.4 23.3 50.1
10 Jordan Romano 0.3542 0.5302 0.6102 66.9 17.6 49.2

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Trevor May 0.0317 0.3312 0.4286 78.9 18.1 60.8
2 Kyle Finnegan 0.1543 0.3573 0.4179 72.5 14.9 57.6
3 Camilo Doval 0.3858 0.4865 0.5652 47.0 19.6 27.5
4 Carlos Estévez 0.1080 0.2066 0.4921 104.5 77.7 26.9
5 Dominic Leone 0.1515 0.0536 0.0196 33.8 10.1 23.7
6 Logan Allen 0.0317 0.0000 0.0000 23.5 4.8 18.7
7 Bryce Miller 0.0317 0.0000 0.0000 23.5 4.8 18.7
8 Alexis Díaz 0.3086 0.3755 0.5211 57.3 39.1 18.3
9 Colin Rea 0.0317 0.0000 0.0000 22.6 4.6 18.0
10 Adam Wainwright 0.0317 0.0000 0.0000 21.2 4.3 16.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tanner Banks 0.3092 0.2004 0.0312 73.0 45.4 27.6
2 Yonny Chirinos 0.1408 0.0982 0.0000 54.7 39.3 15.4
3 Scott McGough 0.1972 0.1542 0.1429 18.9 6.1 12.8
4 Trevor May 0.2778 0.3312 0.4286 29.2 18.1 11.1
5 Jordan Romano 0.4917 0.5302 0.6102 27.3 17.6 9.7
6 David Bednar 0.4714 0.5058 0.5909 30.8 21.1 9.7
7 Michael Fulmer 0.2465 0.2080 0.0345 52.2 43.2 9.0
8 Josh Hader 0.4885 0.5258 0.5410 10.2 1.4 8.7
9 Lucas Erceg 0.0317 0.0000 0.0000 10.1 2.3 7.8
10 Scott Barlow 0.3420 0.3167 0.2063 43.1 35.7 7.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Yonny Chirinos 0.2406 0.0982 0.0000 89.8 39.3 50.4
2 Jorge López 0.4479 0.2759 0.0492 107.1 62.7 44.4
3 David Robertson 0.5278 0.3622 0.2903 65.0 21.7 43.2
4 Tanner Banks 0.3274 0.2004 0.0312 76.5 45.4 31.1
5 Daniel Bard 0.5278 0.4287 0.0200 118.7 96.9 21.8
6 Brock Burke 0.1321 0.0571 0.0000 34.0 16.5 17.5
7 Scott Barlow 0.3790 0.3167 0.2063 52.8 35.7 17.1
8 José Leclerc 0.4042 0.3268 0.0702 78.8 61.9 16.9
9 Kevin Ginkel 0.1818 0.1111 0.0667 30.3 13.6 16.7
10 Tanner Houck 0.0724 0.0358 0.0000 35.3 20.7 14.6

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Carlos Carrasco 6.8000
4.1011
(1060.7)
4.1618
(1007.0)
4.0116
(1091.7)
3.9497
(1129.8)
4.3454
(955.3)
Jordan Lyles 6.2814
4.8679
(941.3)
4.6618
(1044.4)
4.7329
(1030.8)
4.9913
(859.6)
4.8799
(925.9)
Kyle Muller 7.5974
3.9350
(1304.7)
4.4672
(1081.4)
3.9468
(1294.6)
3.9293
(1312.1)
3.9289
(1303.8)
Carlos Rodón 6.8549
3.0518
(1043.3)
3.1343
(1000.2)
2.9586
(1065.6)
3.1656
(1014.8)
3.0318
(1046.6)
Adam Wainwright 7.3960
4.1545
(1493.8)
3.5554
(1750.8)
4.1965
(1466.1)
4.3550
(1403.6)
3.9560
(1585.7)
Lance Lynn 5.7332
3.8606
(1387.7)
3.5677
(1569.3)
3.7693
(1449.1)
3.9175
(1353.2)
3.8952
(1352.8)
Kyle Bradish 2.8281
4.2887
(1084.2)
4.5636
(1314.4)
4.0670
(945.7)
4.1149
(958.1)
4.6923
(1360.8)
Chris Flexen 6.8599
4.2625
(1138.1)
3.8037
(1320.1)
4.2978
(1114.5)
4.2627
(1144.6)
4.2273
(1150.5)
Luis Severino 6.6493
3.5461
(1229.3)
3.5228
(1210.6)
3.5022
(1241.3)
3.5987
(1213.3)
3.5379
(1229.2)
Blake Snell 2.2500
3.4846
(1031.3)
3.7721
(1295.1)
3.4506
(1017.3)
3.3951
(954.3)
3.6087
(1129.6)
Shintaro Fujinami 7.1772
4.1287
(1032.9)
4.1965
(984.4)
4.2294
(991.5)
4.4475
(924.2)
3.7053
(1181.0)
Brady Singer 5.5240
3.8404
(1073.0)
3.9235
(966.7)
3.7208
(1146.2)
3.8449
(1079.7)
3.9567
(985.3)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joey Wentz 4.6400 6.8991 1035.1
2 Tanner Bibee 4.5340 2.9789 1000.6
3 Sonny Gray 3.8859 2.7880 944.8
4 Aaron Bummer 3.2499 6.7886 903.4
5 Ken Waldichuk 3.8257 5.3617 882.3
6 Hogan Harris 3.9701 7.1429 857.0
7 Connor Seabold 5.2959 7.5229 845.3
8 Hunter Brown 3.6754 5.0878 836.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joey Wentz 3.8224 6.8991 1403.8
2 Alek Manoah 2.9032 5.8740 1140.2
3 Tyler Anderson 3.5578 5.4255 1034.3
4 Kodai Senga 4.1965 2.9760 1002.1
5 Yennier Cano 5.2941 2.1055 965.6
6 Gerrit Cole 3.5224 2.6268 918.7
7 Dylan Cease 3.1840 4.5763 916.5
8 Hunter Brown 3.4989 5.0878 908.1

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tanner Bibee 4.8774 2.9789 1210.4
2 Joey Wentz 4.2846 6.8991 1202.5
3 Sonny Gray 3.8517 2.7880 930.5
4 Justin Steele 4.1197 3.0635 878.3
5 Hogan Harris 3.8864 7.1429 876.4
6 Ken Waldichuk 3.8780 5.3617 839.2
7 Connor Seabold 5.3244 7.5229 827.4
8 Aaron Bummer 3.5618 6.7886 816.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joey Wentz 4.5955 6.8991 1064.0
2 Sonny Gray 4.0123 2.7880 1029.4
3 Hunter Brown 3.4342 5.0878 1005.9
4 Aaron Bummer 3.0111 6.7886 970.9
5 Tanner Bibee 4.3987 2.9789 913.1
6 Hogan Harris 3.8277 7.1429 901.5
7 Ken Waldichuk 3.8125 5.3617 899.8
8 Merrill Kelly 4.2774 3.2927 812.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Noah Syndergaard 3.7100 6.4962 1025.4
2 Alek Manoah 3.4309 5.8740 945.9
3 Connor Seabold 5.0865 7.5229 927.3
4 Aaron Bummer 3.1765 6.7886 920.7
5 Ken Waldichuk 3.7869 5.3617 901.7
6 Sonny Gray 3.7956 2.7880 883.2
7 Jack Flaherty 3.4716 4.9885 879.6
8 Zach Davies 4.5109 6.9960 875.1

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kodai Senga 4.1965 3.6031 2.9760 1002.1 543.0 459.1
2 Trevor Williams 3.9958 4.7585 5.5497 876.8 419.1 457.7
3 Jesús Luzardo 4.3997 3.8533 3.5765 775.5 320.1 455.4
4 Tyler Anderson 3.5578 4.3337 5.4255 1034.3 589.1 445.2
5 Cal Quantrill 3.3771 4.3744 5.2375 726.8 314.3 412.6
6 Tony Gonsolin 2.9954 3.9624 4.9806 766.4 375.4 391.0
7 Yusei Kikuchi 4.6075 4.1238 3.8648 676.2 289.9 386.3
8 Joey Wentz 3.8224 4.6400 6.8991 1403.8 1035.1 368.7
9 Gerrit Cole 3.5224 3.1420 2.6268 918.7 550.4 368.3
10 Ryne Nelson 3.6864 4.3319 5.3125 868.3 510.9 357.4

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Julio Teheran 6.3000 5.4423 4.3953 597.6 346.2 251.4
2 Brad Hand 4.1965 5.1349 5.5342 275.5 57.6 217.9
3 Osvaldo Bido 4.1965 5.1033 5.8618 352.8 142.4 210.4
4 Framber Valdez 3.6186 3.3735 3.4545 270.2 59.9 210.3
5 Tanner Bibee 4.8774 4.5340 2.9789 1210.4 1000.6 209.8
6 Luis Castillo 3.5114 3.2761 3.3350 278.1 77.2 200.9
7 Dean Kremer 4.3598 4.1241 4.1178 303.1 118.7 184.4
8 Bryan Hoeing 4.1965 4.7942 5.4764 337.3 160.2 177.0
9 Justin Steele 4.1197 3.8887 3.0635 878.3 702.0 176.3
10 Gavin Williams 5.1677 4.6825 3.2927 705.7 533.0 172.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Luis Medina 4.0388 4.6878 5.4164 612.1 283.9 328.2
2 Dean Kremer 4.5209 4.1241 4.1178 400.0 118.7 281.2
3 Patrick Corbin 4.4579 4.7192 5.2000 474.9 257.2 217.7
4 Josiah Gray 4.8737 4.5728 3.9057 774.1 574.0 200.1
5 David Peterson 3.3497 3.7422 5.0270 755.9 555.8 200.1
6 Kyle Freeland 5.4819 5.2010 5.0300 401.4 220.9 180.5
7 Justin Verlander 3.3578 3.0821 3.2156 189.5 14.5 175.0
8 Zac Gallen 3.7686 3.5531 3.4714 370.7 200.3 170.3
9 Hunter Brown 3.4342 3.6754 5.0878 1005.9 836.0 169.9
10 Jesse Scholtens 4.0829 4.4529 5.2941 403.5 258.6 144.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Dane Dunning 4.7262 4.2815 3.7008 858.6 531.3 327.2
2 Kyle Bradish 4.6923 4.2887 2.8281 1360.8 1084.2 276.6
3 Yusei Kikuchi 4.4878 4.1238 3.8648 550.7 289.9 260.7
4 Jack Flaherty 3.4716 3.8804 4.9885 879.6 619.3 260.2
5 Noah Syndergaard 3.7100 4.3487 6.4962 1025.4 779.0 246.4
6 Gregory Santos 5.3957 4.5546 3.3920 626.4 380.8 245.5
7 Julio Urías 3.1888 3.6763 4.6023 602.4 371.5 230.9
8 Dean Kremer 3.5074 4.1241 4.1178 328.3 118.7 209.6
9 Taj Bradley 3.9519 4.3894 5.5892 677.8 480.5 197.3
10 Kutter Crawford 4.7157 4.3661 4.0361 444.5 255.7 188.8

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Razzball Steamer ZiPS
Michael Kopech 1.5928
1.3212
(157.0)
1.2105
(205.8)
1.3235
(157.1)
1.3573
(141.3)
1.2835
(169.6)
Jack Flaherty 1.5797
1.2473
(212.2)
1.2802
(172.6)
1.2930
(184.1)
1.2945
(187.7)
1.1572
(260.1)
Alek Manoah 1.7405
1.1599
(238.5)
1.0772
(261.1)
1.1905
(226.8)
1.2255
(215.2)
1.0663
(270.5)
Kyle Muller 1.9610
1.3047
(241.9)
1.3139
(228.1)
1.3156
(238.9)
1.3133
(242.3)
1.2854
(243.1)
Adam Wainwright 1.9010
1.3341
(271.5)
1.2028
(321.5)
1.2918
(293.2)
1.3562
(265.4)
1.3122
(274.2)
Ken Waldichuk 1.5603
1.2716
(180.7)
1.2626
(168.5)
1.2811
(176.3)
1.2625
(192.6)
1.2713
(170.5)
Kyle Bradish 1.0435
1.3422
(204.4)
1.3466
(226.2)
1.3108
(181.6)
1.3152
(179.9)
1.4017
(255.3)
Luis Severino 1.6455
1.1530
(202.9)
1.1184
(205.6)
1.1639
(199.4)
1.1838
(194.1)
1.1122
(213.1)
Tylor Megill 1.5752
1.1753
(223.4)
1.2646
(156.8)
1.1566
(235.4)
1.1577
(238.7)
1.2118
(193.5)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Carrasco 1.2866 1.7000 169.9
2 Dylan Cease 1.2011 1.4181 165.5
3 Lance Lynn 1.1854 1.3938 163.6
4 Chris Flexen 1.3260 1.6710 158.0
5 Logan Webb 1.2508 1.0741 155.3
6 Andrew Heaney 1.1382 1.3778 149.8
7 Tyler Holton 1.3214 0.8672 149.1
8 Nick Pivetta 1.3676 1.1215 147.9
9 Charlie Morton 1.2178 1.4265 145.2
10 Trevor Williams 1.3746 1.6005 144.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joey Wentz 1.2355 1.6845 204.2
2 Mitch Keller 1.4410 1.2453 189.5
3 Tyler Anderson 1.1550 1.4894 188.9
4 George Kirby 1.2422 1.0385 180.0
5 Lance Lynn 1.1518 1.3938 168.1
6 Zach Eflin 1.2253 1.0244 165.1
7 Luis Ortiz 1.2571 1.6962 162.0
8 Chris Flexen 1.2894 1.6710 162.0
9 Kutter Crawford 1.3716 1.1057 158.1
10 Trevor Williams 1.3319 1.6005 154.6

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lance Lynn 1.1663 1.3938 181.1
2 Carlos Carrasco 1.2733 1.7000 176.5
3 Logan Webb 1.2765 1.0741 174.9
4 Dylan Cease 1.1920 1.4181 174.6
5 Andrew Heaney 1.1215 1.3778 162.2
6 Chris Flexen 1.3273 1.6710 158.6
7 Zach Eflin 1.2450 1.0244 157.4
8 Luis Ortiz 1.3046 1.6962 155.3
9 Tyler Holton 1.3429 0.8672 155.2
10 Wade Miley 1.4495 1.1385 154.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Carrasco 1.2595 1.7000 185.2
2 Logan Webb 1.2898 1.0741 180.3
3 Chris Flexen 1.3022 1.6710 173.5
4 Lance Lynn 1.1903 1.3938 167.4
5 Andrew Heaney 1.1323 1.3778 159.7
6 David Peterson 1.2516 1.5676 157.2
7 Dylan Cease 1.2239 1.4181 155.1
8 Zach Eflin 1.2433 1.0244 151.4
9 Tyler Holton 1.3368 0.8672 151.0
10 Nick Pivetta 1.3780 1.1215 148.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trevor Williams 1.3111 1.6005 176.0
2 Kutter Crawford 1.3935 1.1057 163.4
3 Dylan Cease 1.1875 1.4181 163.3
4 Nick Pivetta 1.3748 1.1215 161.7
5 Cristopher Sánchez 1.4096 1.0470 152.4
6 Braxton Garrett 1.3514 1.1461 149.9
7 Charlie Morton 1.1997 1.4265 146.4
8 Tyler Anderson 1.2349 1.4894 146.1
9 Mitch Keller 1.4000 1.2453 146.0
10 Carlos Carrasco 1.3278 1.7000 145.9

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brayan Bello 1.4685 1.3470 1.3376 110.2 10.2 100.0
2 Joey Wentz 1.2355 1.4392 1.6845 204.2 117.8 86.4
3 George Kirby 1.2422 1.1604 1.0385 180.0 96.8 83.2
4 Luis Medina 1.2918 1.5533 1.5137 93.0 22.5 70.5
5 Miles Mikolas 1.1248 1.2337 1.3162 135.3 65.9 69.4
6 Luis Castillo 1.2288 1.1703 1.0964 133.4 64.0 69.4
7 Blake Snell 1.2574 1.1946 1.1889 76.0 8.6 67.4
8 Chris Sale 1.2859 1.1582 1.1299 80.8 14.5 66.2
9 Ty Blach 1.3125 1.5198 1.6410 103.7 40.6 63.1
10 Ryne Nelson 1.2006 1.3250 1.4236 117.0 57.4 59.7

Razzball

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Luis Medina 1.7000 1.5533 1.5137 93.9 22.5 71.4
2 Osvaldo Bido 1.2918 1.5019 1.5000 48.4 1.8 46.5
3 Lucas Erceg 1.2918 1.6959 1.5818 72.0 30.1 41.8
4 Jose Cuas 1.2918 1.4304 1.5000 59.8 18.6 41.2
5 Seth Lugo 1.3433 1.2733 1.2027 86.9 46.2 40.8
6 Bryce Miller 1.2918 1.2152 1.1421 82.2 42.4 39.7
7 Quinn Priester 1.2918 1.4320 1.7000 94.7 61.3 33.4
8 Luis Castillo 1.2110 1.1703 1.0964 94.6 64.0 30.6
9 Albert Abreu 1.2918 1.4033 1.4746 48.1 17.5 30.6
10 Joey Wentz 1.3855 1.4392 1.6845 145.5 117.8 27.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 J.P. France 1.2467 1.3400 1.3570 66.2 6.4 59.8
2 Lucas Erceg 1.2918 1.6959 1.5818 73.7 30.1 43.6
3 Patrick Corbin 1.3619 1.4059 1.4833 98.8 56.5 42.3
4 Zac Gallen 1.2301 1.1780 1.1190 90.9 54.9 36.0
5 Drew Smyly 1.2882 1.3261 1.4262 88.6 59.0 29.7
6 Julio Urías 1.2288 1.1588 1.1591 31.8 2.7 29.1
7 Chris Bassitt 1.2458 1.2019 1.1750 55.5 27.1 28.4
8 Luis Medina 1.4174 1.5533 1.5137 49.5 22.5 26.9
9 Tony Gonsolin 1.3260 1.2574 1.2233 43.1 17.4 25.7
10 Logan Webb 1.2898 1.2508 1.0741 180.3 155.3 25.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kodai Senga 1.0763 1.1949 1.2204 84.6 13.6 71.0
2 Yusei Kikuchi 1.3962 1.3249 1.2704 103.7 42.3 61.4
3 J.P. France 1.4479 1.3400 1.3570 65.8 6.4 59.4
4 Kutter Crawford 1.3935 1.3078 1.1057 163.4 109.6 53.8
5 Kyle Bradish 1.4017 1.3422 1.0435 255.3 204.4 50.9
6 Jack Flaherty 1.1572 1.2473 1.5797 260.1 212.2 47.9
7 Dean Kremer 1.2206 1.2943 1.3089 48.5 6.4 42.1
8 Julio Urías 1.0568 1.1588 1.1591 38.6 2.7 35.8
9 Sandy Alcantara 1.1005 1.1606 1.2130 68.8 35.4 33.4
10 Ben Lively 1.4714 1.4034 1.3647 49.4 17.1 32.3