2010 Projection Evaluation

Summary

Batting

System PA wOBA SO BB HR R RBI SB BABIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF wOBA ERA SO BB HR W L SV HLD BABIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Everybody Missed for Plate Appearances (PA)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Jacoby Ellsbury 84
630
(546.0)
615
(531.0)
630
(546.0)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kila Ka'aihue 968 206 762.0
2 Chris Carter 660 78 582.0
3 Mark Trumbo 592 16 576.0
4 Andrew Romine 582 12 570.0
5 Eric Sogard 573 9 564.0
6 Pedro Ciriaco 550 6 544.0
7 Mat Gamel 552 17 535.0
8 Mike Carp 576 41 535.0
9 Brandon Hicks 540 6 534.0
10 Juan Francisco 589 59 530.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Austin Jackson 100 675 575.0
2 Jason Heyward 100 623 523.0
3 Ike Davis 100 601 501.0
4 Mike Jacobs 489 28 461.0
5 Willy Taveras 472 37 435.0
6 Mark DeRosa 537 104 433.0
7 Gaby Sanchez 215 643 428.0
8 Kazuo Matsui 500 78 422.0
9 Ryan Garko 456 38 418.0
10 Brandon Moss 444 27 417.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kila Ka'aihue 968 206 762.0
2 Chris Carter 660 78 582.0
3 Mark Trumbo 592 16 576.0
4 Andrew Romine 582 12 570.0
5 Eric Sogard 573 9 564.0
6 Pedro Ciriaco 550 6 544.0
7 Mat Gamel 552 17 535.0
8 Mike Carp 576 41 535.0
9 Brandon Hicks 540 6 534.0
10 Juan Francisco 589 59 530.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Austin Jackson 100 593 675 575.0 82.0 493.0
2 Ike Davis 100 523 601 501.0 78.0 423.0
3 Jason Heyward 100 496 623 523.0 127.0 396.0
4 Starlin Castro 100 542 506 406.0 36.0 370.0
5 Jose Tabata 100 437 441 341.0 4.0 337.0
6 Gaby Sanchez 215 480 643 428.0 163.0 265.0
7 Drew Stubbs 303 605 583 280.0 22.0 258.0
8 Justin Smoak 100 347 397 297.0 50.0 247.0
9 Daric Barton 357 595 686 329.0 91.0 238.0
10 Ian Desmond 250 484 574 324.0 90.0 234.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Pablo Sandoval 0.3231
0.3870
(32.2)
0.3855
(30.9)
0.3870
(32.2)
Robinson Canó 0.3973
0.3538
(38.4)
0.3523
(39.9)
0.3538
(38.4)
Aubrey Huff 0.3889
0.3439
(37.9)
0.3432
(38.8)
0.3439
(37.9)
Vernon Wells 0.3661
0.3291
(31.4)
0.3276
(32.8)
0.3291
(31.4)
Paul Konerko 0.4201
0.3611
(44.6)
0.3580
(46.9)
0.3611
(44.6)
Carlos González 0.4167
0.3497
(50.1)
0.3312
(62.2)
0.3497
(50.1)
Adrian Beltré 0.3957
0.3428
(41.4)
0.3305
(49.7)
0.3428
(41.4)
Joey Votto 0.4411
0.3832
(45.1)
0.3921
(39.7)
0.3832
(45.1)
José Bautista 0.4228
0.3218
(76.9)
0.3271
(73.7)
0.3218
(76.9)
Miguel Cabrera 0.4445
0.3989
(37.1)
0.3939
(40.8)
0.3989
(37.1)
Carlos Lee 0.3102
0.3784
(36.7)
0.3710
(31.4)
0.3784
(36.7)
Josh Hamilton 0.4468
0.3655
(53.1)
0.3650
(53.7)
0.3655
(53.1)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jim Thome 0.3433 0.4418 37.5
2 Austin Jackson 0.2883 0.3296 35.8
3 Brandon Wood 0.3188 0.1674 34.0
4 Ike Davis 0.3075 0.3497 32.4
5 Álex González 0.2823 0.3206 32.0
6 Drew Stubbs 0.2950 0.3375 31.6
7 Wilson Betemit 0.3016 0.3879 30.9
8 Andres Torres 0.3157 0.3564 29.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Heyward 0.3267 0.3783 39.8
2 Colby Rasmus 0.3181 0.3730 35.9
3 Kelly Johnson 0.3386 0.3772 34.1
4 Justin Morneau 0.3689 0.4530 33.5
5 Buster Posey 0.3162 0.3752 31.6
6 Carlos Ruiz 0.3202 0.3784 30.5
7 Ben Zobrist 0.3718 0.3143 29.6
8 Troy Tulowitzki 0.3647 0.4078 29.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jim Thome 0.3433 0.4418 37.5
2 Austin Jackson 0.2883 0.3296 35.8
3 Brandon Wood 0.3188 0.1674 34.0
4 Ike Davis 0.3075 0.3497 32.4
5 Álex González 0.2823 0.3206 32.0
6 Drew Stubbs 0.2950 0.3375 31.6
7 Wilson Betemit 0.3016 0.3879 30.9
8 Andres Torres 0.3157 0.3564 29.9

Most Unique Misses for wOBA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Daric Barton 0.3299 0.3542 0.3544 25.2 8.1 17.1
2 Kelly Johnson 0.3386 0.3632 0.3772 34.1 17.2 16.9
3 Billy Butler 0.3479 0.3661 0.3772 28.2 15.5 12.8
4 Mark Teixeira 0.4020 0.3841 0.3721 12.5 0.2 12.3
5 Carlos González 0.3312 0.3497 0.4167 62.2 50.1 12.2
6 Tommy Manzella 0.3288 0.2862 0.2377 22.2 10.4 11.8
7 Alex Avila 0.3489 0.3065 0.2986 12.7 1.3 11.4
8 Rubén Tejada 0.3267 0.2831 0.2672 12.0 1.1 11.0
9 Jason Heyward 0.3267 0.3431 0.3783 39.8 29.2 10.6
10 Ryan Zimmerman 0.3583 0.3746 0.3928 28.2 18.0 10.2

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Denard Span 0.1050
0.1558
(37.6)
0.1441
(32.7)
0.1558
(37.6)
Adam Lind 0.2349
0.1862
(28.3)
0.1757
(31.8)
0.1862
(28.3)
Colby Rasmus 0.2772
0.1948
(42.7)
0.1814
(47.3)
0.1948
(42.7)
David Wright 0.2403
0.1988
(26.2)
0.1843
(32.7)
0.1988
(26.2)
David Ortiz 0.2393
0.1928
(26.7)
0.1793
(31.9)
0.1928
(26.7)
Jonny Gomes 0.2154
0.2747
(35.3)
0.2567
(27.7)
0.2747
(35.3)
Ryan Braun 0.1533
0.1947
(30.0)
0.1879
(28.7)
0.1947
(30.0)
Adam LaRoche 0.2797
0.2253
(31.9)
0.2138
(36.1)
0.2253
(31.9)
Delmon Young 0.1321
0.1953
(40.2)
0.1888
(39.2)
0.1953
(40.2)
Michael Cuddyer 0.1378
0.1795
(29.8)
0.1727
(28.5)
0.1795
(29.8)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Bautista 0.2295 0.1698 42.4
2 Chase Headley 0.2646 0.2062 41.0
3 Ike Davis 0.2945 0.2296 40.4
4 Todd Helton 0.1231 0.1903 30.6
5 Kelly Johnson 0.1732 0.2206 30.1
6 Jhonny Peralta 0.2138 0.1675 30.0
7 Mark Reynolds 0.3043 0.3540 28.2
8 Matt Holliday 0.1758 0.1378 27.3
9 Adrián González 0.2009 0.1645 26.9
10 Hideki Matsui 0.1267 0.1756 25.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1797 0.3106 49.0
2 Pedro Álvarez 0.1797 0.3083 46.8
3 Austin Jackson 0.1797 0.2519 43.8
4 Drew Stubbs 0.2079 0.2882 42.6
5 John Jaso 0.1773 0.0965 35.6
6 Adam Dunn 0.2483 0.3071 33.4
7 Austin Kearns 0.1824 0.2516 28.6
8 Buster Posey 0.1806 0.1242 28.2
9 Vladimir Guerrero 0.1297 0.0933 28.0
10 Andrew McCutchen 0.1717 0.1363 27.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Bautista 0.2295 0.1698 42.4
2 Chase Headley 0.2646 0.2062 41.0
3 Ike Davis 0.2945 0.2296 40.4
4 Todd Helton 0.1231 0.1903 30.6
5 Kelly Johnson 0.1732 0.2206 30.1
6 Jhonny Peralta 0.2138 0.1675 30.0
7 Mark Reynolds 0.3043 0.3540 28.2
8 Matt Holliday 0.1758 0.1378 27.3
9 Adrián González 0.2009 0.1645 26.9
10 Hideki Matsui 0.1267 0.1756 25.9

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Pedro Álvarez 0.1797 0.2920 0.3083 46.8 5.3 41.5
2 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1797 0.3363 0.3106 49.0 11.1 37.8
3 Drew Stubbs 0.2079 0.2612 0.2882 42.6 14.3 28.2
4 Austin Jackson 0.1797 0.2226 0.2519 43.8 18.1 25.7
5 John Jaso 0.1773 0.1250 0.0965 35.6 12.5 23.1
6 Daric Barton 0.1709 0.1462 0.1487 20.2 0.0 20.2
7 Julio Borbon 0.1678 0.1156 0.1261 22.9 3.7 19.2
8 Corey Patterson 0.1581 0.2179 0.2199 18.6 0.2 18.5
9 Starlin Castro 0.1797 0.1273 0.1403 23.6 5.3 18.3
10 Jose Tabata 0.1797 0.1442 0.1293 25.5 7.7 17.8

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
John Jaso 0.1460
0.0909
(22.4)
0.0837
(25.8)
0.0909
(22.4)
José Reyes 0.0514
0.0957
(26.5)
0.0934
(24.4)
0.0957
(26.5)
Robinson Canó 0.0819
0.0477
(24.0)
0.0530
(21.2)
0.0477
(24.0)
Aubrey Huff 0.1243
0.0806
(29.4)
0.0827
(28.8)
0.0806
(29.4)
Brett Gardner 0.1388
0.0974
(23.7)
0.0833
(32.5)
0.0974
(23.7)
Nick Swisher 0.0913
0.1412
(31.5)
0.1426
(31.6)
0.1412
(31.5)
Brian McCann 0.1307
0.0883
(24.2)
0.0867
(25.8)
0.0883
(24.2)
Jason Heyward 0.1461
0.0907
(34.7)
0.0868
(37.9)
0.0907
(34.7)
Marco Scutaro 0.0763
0.1126
(25.0)
0.1088
(21.6)
0.1126
(25.0)
Joey Votto 0.1404
0.1087
(20.8)
0.1080
(22.0)
0.1087
(20.8)
José Bautista 0.1464
0.1179
(19.7)
0.1106
(25.5)
0.1179
(19.7)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1373
0.0996
(24.7)
0.0971
(27.1)
0.0996
(24.7)
Daric Barton 0.1603
0.1210
(27.2)
0.1176
(30.4)
0.1210
(27.2)
Mark Reynolds 0.1393
0.1070
(19.4)
0.1035
(22.2)
0.1070
(19.4)
Adam Dunn 0.1188
0.1728
(34.8)
0.1628
(27.5)
0.1728
(34.8)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 J.D. Drew 0.1553 0.1099 24.6
2 Adam Jones 0.0703 0.0370 20.4
3 Geovany Soto 0.1091 0.1602 19.9
4 Ryan Howard 0.1265 0.0952 19.2
5 Adam LaRoche 0.1092 0.0780 19.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Colby Rasmus 0.0759 0.1180 23.3
2 Prince Fielder 0.1313 0.1597 21.4
3 Julio Borbon 0.0872 0.0406 21.1
4 Ike Davis 0.0868 0.1198 20.8
5 Carlos Santana 0.0868 0.1927 20.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 J.D. Drew 0.1553 0.1099 24.6
2 Adam Jones 0.0703 0.0370 20.4
3 Geovany Soto 0.1091 0.1602 19.9
4 Ryan Howard 0.1265 0.0952 19.2
5 Adam LaRoche 0.1092 0.0780 19.0

Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Johnson 0.0837 0.0445 0.0414 14.7 1.0 13.8
2 Julio Borbon 0.0872 0.0570 0.0406 21.1 7.5 13.6
3 Starlin Castro 0.0868 0.0535 0.0573 14.1 2.1 12.0
4 Justin Smoak 0.0868 0.1153 0.1159 12.2 0.4 11.8
5 Carlos Santana 0.0868 0.1338 0.1927 20.6 11.4 9.3
6 Brett Gardner 0.0833 0.0974 0.1388 32.5 23.7 8.7
7 Garrett Jones 0.1003 0.0769 0.0810 11.6 2.9 8.7
8 Jose Tabata 0.0868 0.0664 0.0635 9.6 1.1 8.5
9 Logan Morrison 0.0868 0.1147 0.1429 16.5 8.2 8.4
10 Tommy Manzella 0.0878 0.0602 0.0461 11.3 3.9 7.4

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Alex Rodriguez 0.0050
0.0215
(9.5)
0.0193
(8.2)
0.0215
(9.5)
Brett Carroll 0.0778
0.0149
(5.7)
0.0142
(5.8)
0.0149
(5.7)
Juan Pierre 0.0286
0.0128
(12.0)
0.0112
(13.1)
0.0128
(12.0)
Daniel Nava 0.0426
0.0085
(6.5)
0.0085
(6.5)
0.0085
(6.5)
Dan Uggla 0.0030
0.0129
(6.4)
0.0135
(6.8)
0.0129
(6.4)
Marlon Byrd 0.0270
0.0169
(6.6)
0.0148
(7.9)
0.0169
(6.6)
Brandon Inge 0.0086
0.0232
(8.1)
0.0199
(6.3)
0.0232
(8.1)
Ryan Raburn 0.0195
0.0052
(6.1)
0.0055
(5.9)
0.0052
(6.1)
Aubrey Huff 0.0135
0.0051
(5.9)
0.0054
(5.7)
0.0051
(5.9)
Jason Kendall 0.0122
0.0256
(6.3)
0.0235
(5.3)
0.0256
(6.3)
Lastings Milledge 0.0073
0.0209
(5.4)
0.0200
(5.0)
0.0209
(5.4)
Prince Fielder 0.0294
0.0160
(9.9)
0.0156
(10.2)
0.0160
(9.9)
Travis Hafner 0.0260
0.0118
(6.8)
0.0122
(6.6)
0.0118
(6.8)
Rod Barajas 0.0236
0.0086
(5.3)
0.0087
(5.2)
0.0086
(5.3)
Josh Wilson 0.0309
0.0183
(5.1)
0.0131
(7.1)
0.0183
(5.1)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt LaPorta 0.0213 0.0024 7.8
2 Jason Heyward 0.0060 0.0161 6.6
3 Daric Barton 0.0134 0.0044 5.9
4 Mark Reynolds 0.0067 0.0151 5.3
5 Kevin Kouzmanoff 0.0193 0.0102 5.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.0206 0.0332 9.8
2 Rubén Tejada 0.0085 0.0314 5.9
3 Fred Lewis 0.0072 0.0187 5.8
4 Brett Wallace 0.0085 0.0440 5.7
5 José Bautista 0.0068 0.0146 5.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt LaPorta 0.0213 0.0024 7.8
2 Jason Heyward 0.0060 0.0161 6.6
3 Daric Barton 0.0134 0.0044 5.9
4 Mark Reynolds 0.0067 0.0151 5.3
5 Kevin Kouzmanoff 0.0193 0.0102 5.0

Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.0206 0.0283 0.0332 9.8 4.1 5.7
2 Ike Davis 0.0085 0.0019 0.0017 3.8 0.2 3.7
3 Sean Rodríguez 0.0126 0.0213 0.0212 3.4 0.1 3.3
4 Brett Wallace 0.0085 0.0276 0.0440 5.7 2.7 3.0
5 Pedro Álvarez 0.0085 0.0000 0.0000 3.1 0.2 2.9
6 José Bautista 0.0068 0.0105 0.0146 5.7 3.2 2.5
7 Alcides Escobar 0.0109 0.0064 0.0054 2.8 0.2 2.5
8 Carlos Quentin 0.0327 0.0397 0.0380 3.0 0.6 2.4
9 Jose Guillen 0.0194 0.0235 0.0243 3.1 0.8 2.3
10 Danny Valencia 0.0085 0.0018 0.0000 2.6 0.4 2.2

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Jim Thome 0.1276
0.0760
(18.2)
0.0870
(14.7)
0.0760
(18.2)
Corey Hart 0.0733
0.0455
(18.2)
0.0427
(20.4)
0.0455
(18.2)
Kelly Johnson 0.0588
0.0400
(13.9)
0.0319
(19.7)
0.0400
(13.9)
Colby Rasmus 0.0714
0.0391
(18.3)
0.0401
(18.1)
0.0391
(18.3)
Vernon Wells 0.0609
0.0392
(15.2)
0.0346
(18.6)
0.0392
(15.2)
Paul Konerko 0.0878
0.0562
(21.1)
0.0599
(19.3)
0.0562
(21.1)
Jason Bay 0.0230
0.0911
(26.6)
0.0693
(17.6)
0.0911
(26.6)
Carlos González 0.0741
0.0442
(20.2)
0.0393
(23.7)
0.0442
(20.2)
Joey Votto 0.0871
0.0588
(19.5)
0.0582
(20.4)
0.0588
(19.5)
Ryan Howard 0.0783
0.1183
(23.6)
0.1040
(14.4)
0.1183
(23.6)
Tyler Colvin 0.0763
0.0303
(18.9)
0.0323
(18.4)
0.0303
(18.9)
José Bautista 0.1182
0.0459
(50.6)
0.0425
(53.4)
0.0459
(50.6)
Ben Zobrist 0.0221
0.0475
(15.4)
0.0577
(21.7)
0.0475
(15.4)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Stubbs 0.0256 0.0620 22.3
2 Raul Ibanez 0.0670 0.0348 19.3
3 Evan Longoria 0.0789 0.0478 19.3
4 Jonny Gomes 0.0791 0.0453 18.2
5 Ryan Braun 0.0752 0.0483 17.2
6 Michael Cuddyer 0.0511 0.0269 15.1
7 Ryan Ludwick 0.0734 0.0452 14.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0367 0.0928 23.2
2 Austin Jackson 0.0367 0.0088 17.1
3 Mark Reynolds 0.0865 0.1092 15.1
4 David Wright 0.0471 0.0662 14.5
5 Pedro Álvarez 0.0367 0.0696 13.7
6 Starlin Castro 0.0367 0.0075 13.5
7 Matt Kemp 0.0461 0.0635 13.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Stubbs 0.0256 0.0620 22.3
2 Raul Ibanez 0.0670 0.0348 19.3
3 Evan Longoria 0.0789 0.0478 19.3
4 Jonny Gomes 0.0791 0.0453 18.2
5 Ryan Braun 0.0752 0.0483 17.2
6 Michael Cuddyer 0.0511 0.0269 15.1
7 Ryan Ludwick 0.0734 0.0452 14.6

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Austin Jackson 0.0367 0.0143 0.0088 17.1 2.5 14.6
2 Starlin Castro 0.0367 0.0113 0.0075 13.5 1.0 12.5
3 Pedro Álvarez 0.0367 0.0645 0.0696 13.7 2.7 11.0
4 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0367 0.0625 0.0928 23.2 12.7 10.5
5 Julio Borbon 0.0318 0.0120 0.0077 10.1 1.1 9.0
6 Ike Davis 0.0367 0.0503 0.0487 8.8 0.1 8.6
7 David Ortiz 0.0661 0.0792 0.0849 12.9 4.5 8.4
8 Jose Tabata 0.0367 0.0177 0.0113 10.1 2.0 8.1
9 Ian Desmond 0.0432 0.0210 0.0231 10.1 2.3 7.8
10 John Buck 0.0476 0.0711 0.0658 9.1 1.5 7.5

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.3318
0.2918
(37.7)
0.2844
(40.1)
0.2918
(37.7)
Austin Kearns 0.3441
0.2898
(29.6)
0.2807
(31.8)
0.2898
(29.6)
Colby Rasmus 0.3512
0.3035
(30.8)
0.2836
(39.1)
0.3035
(30.8)
Dan Uggla 0.3301
0.2917
(32.6)
0.2906
(30.5)
0.2917
(32.6)
Carlos Pena 0.2219
0.2818
(29.1)
0.2837
(32.7)
0.2818
(29.1)
Chris Johnson 0.3868
0.3028
(34.0)
0.2848
(39.0)
0.3028
(34.0)
Jay Bruce 0.3343
0.2831
(35.0)
0.2660
(42.4)
0.2831
(35.0)
Carlos Ruiz 0.3355
0.2692
(33.0)
0.2635
(33.6)
0.2692
(33.0)
Justin Morneau 0.3853
0.2962
(34.5)
0.2893
(35.4)
0.2962
(34.5)
Carlos González 0.3835
0.3125
(51.5)
0.3160
(46.6)
0.3125
(51.5)
Austin Jackson 0.3933
0.3148
(59.8)
0.2971
(68.8)
0.3148
(59.8)
Nick Swisher 0.3325
0.2857
(36.0)
0.2751
(40.0)
0.2857
(36.0)
Paul Konerko 0.3259
0.2876
(30.5)
0.2706
(38.5)
0.2876
(30.5)
Aaron Hill 0.1952
0.2951
(52.1)
0.2980
(56.3)
0.2951
(52.1)
Matt Kemp 0.2954
0.3607
(36.9)
0.3502
(32.8)
0.3607
(36.9)
Mark Reynolds 0.2567
0.3302
(37.8)
0.3312
(41.0)
0.3302
(37.8)
Josh Hamilton 0.3889
0.3212
(44.3)
0.3192
(43.0)
0.3212
(44.3)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Buck 0.2704 0.3345 32.4
2 Akinori Iwamura 0.3455 0.2065 29.5
3 Denard Span 0.3408 0.2890 29.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jack Cust 0.3165 0.3868 32.3
2 Carlos Lee 0.2928 0.2376 32.1
3 Adrian Beltré 0.2888 0.3313 30.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Buck 0.2704 0.3345 32.4
2 Akinori Iwamura 0.3455 0.2065 29.5
3 Denard Span 0.3408 0.2890 29.5

Most Unique Misses for BABIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jorge Posada 0.3406 0.3073 0.2873 21.5 4.5 16.9
2 Ryan Howard 0.3065 0.3294 0.3315 19.0 7.5 11.5
3 Adam LaRoche 0.3178 0.3389 0.3297 10.8 0.5 10.4
4 Felipe López 0.3233 0.3043 0.2704 20.8 10.6 10.3
5 Ronny Cedeno 0.2669 0.2910 0.3085 23.8 13.8 10.0
6 Jason Heyward 0.2971 0.3162 0.3351 27.2 18.0 9.3
7 Adam Dunn 0.2971 0.3155 0.3292 24.5 15.4 9.1
8 Austin Jackson 0.2971 0.3148 0.3933 68.8 59.8 9.0
9 Daric Barton 0.2840 0.3012 0.3080 20.4 11.5 8.9
10 Mark Teixeira 0.3120 0.3041 0.2683 27.1 18.4 8.7

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.2500
0.2060
(37.7)
0.1991
(40.2)
0.2060
(37.7)
Dan Uggla 0.2549
0.2000
(41.1)
0.1966
(40.9)
0.2000
(41.1)
B.J. Upton 0.1866
0.2408
(29.4)
0.2391
(30.6)
0.2408
(29.4)
John Buck 0.2465
0.1888
(27.9)
0.1864
(27.3)
0.1888
(27.9)
Jay Bruce 0.2550
0.2078
(30.5)
0.1987
(33.6)
0.2078
(30.5)
Austin Jackson 0.2956
0.2421
(40.1)
0.2225
(50.9)
0.2421
(40.1)
Nick Swisher 0.2432
0.1971
(33.1)
0.1893
(35.7)
0.1971
(33.1)
Carlos González 0.2824
0.2201
(43.4)
0.2230
(39.2)
0.2201
(43.4)
Bobby Abreu 0.1972
0.2438
(27.0)
0.2450
(30.3)
0.2438
(27.0)
Scott Podsednik 0.2854
0.2459
(27.1)
0.2422
(27.1)
0.2459
(27.1)
José Bautista 0.1390
0.1959
(34.7)
0.2014
(41.0)
0.1959
(34.7)
Aaron Hill 0.1429
0.2178
(40.0)
0.2190
(42.7)
0.2178
(40.0)
Delmon Young 0.2138
0.2625
(26.1)
0.2614
(27.7)
0.2625
(26.1)
Matt Kemp 0.2203
0.2670
(27.1)
0.2681
(30.3)
0.2670
(27.1)
Omar Infante 0.3071
0.2489
(32.5)
0.2444
(33.0)
0.2489
(32.5)
Josh Hamilton 0.2803
0.2351
(29.3)
0.2345
(27.5)
0.2351
(29.3)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Young 0.1738 0.2163 32.3
2 Denard Span 0.2780 0.2287 30.5
3 Adrián González 0.2114 0.2472 29.0
4 Matt Diaz 0.2946 0.1705 28.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Paul Konerko 0.1989 0.2494 33.3
2 Elvis Andrus 0.2308 0.2711 28.8
3 Mark Reynolds 0.2334 0.1839 28.1
4 Mark Ellis 0.2030 0.2559 27.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Young 0.1738 0.2163 32.3
2 Denard Span 0.2780 0.2287 30.5
3 Adrián González 0.2114 0.2472 29.0
4 Matt Diaz 0.2946 0.1705 28.8

Most Unique Misses for Single Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ian Desmond 0.2034 0.2569 0.2370 20.7 8.0 12.7
2 Austin Jackson 0.2225 0.2421 0.2956 50.9 40.1 10.8
3 Derek Jeter 0.2857 0.2748 0.2468 27.0 16.2 10.7
4 Jorge Posada 0.2428 0.2240 0.1978 19.2 9.1 10.1
5 Ryan Howard 0.2143 0.2332 0.2548 26.6 17.1 9.5
6 Vernon Wells 0.2085 0.1990 0.1736 21.0 12.5 8.5
7 Mark Ellis 0.2030 0.2236 0.2559 27.2 18.9 8.3
8 Paul Konerko 0.1989 0.2150 0.2494 33.3 25.5 7.8
9 Mark Teixeira 0.2187 0.2120 0.1885 19.8 12.4 7.4
10 Edwin Encarnación 0.2089 0.1948 0.1725 12.5 5.9 6.5

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Jerry Hairston Jr. 0.0346
0.0700
(15.4)
0.0725
(16.9)
0.0700
(15.4)
Ronny Cedeno 0.0799
0.0485
(17.2)
0.0507
(15.9)
0.0485
(17.2)
Jayson Werth 0.1183
0.0671
(35.2)
0.0634
(37.3)
0.0671
(35.2)
Colby Rasmus 0.0936
0.0678
(15.4)
0.0627
(17.8)
0.0678
(15.4)
Alfonso Soriano 0.1133
0.0821
(18.7)
0.0804
(19.4)
0.0821
(18.7)
Vernon Wells 0.0921
0.0695
(16.4)
0.0673
(17.5)
0.0695
(16.4)
Jim Edmonds 0.1307
0.0724
(16.7)
0.0654
(18.4)
0.0724
(16.7)
Bobby Abreu 0.0962
0.0771
(14.7)
0.0743
(16.3)
0.0771
(14.7)
Scott Podsednik 0.0300
0.0656
(19.4)
0.0599
(16.3)
0.0656
(19.4)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1064
0.0811
(18.3)
0.0767
(20.8)
0.0811
(18.3)
Andres Torres 0.1168
0.0602
(33.9)
0.0645
(31.2)
0.0602
(33.9)
Delmon Young 0.0964
0.0700
(18.0)
0.0625
(22.3)
0.0700
(18.0)
Adam Dunn 0.1108
0.0820
(20.5)
0.0799
(21.6)
0.0820
(20.5)
Josh Hamilton 0.1010
0.0762
(15.9)
0.0749
(16.3)
0.0762
(15.9)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Álex González 0.0590 0.0911 22.4
2 Nelson Cruz 0.0693 0.1023 16.0
3 Carlos Pena 0.0893 0.0596 15.6
4 David Ortiz 0.0831 0.1043 14.7
5 Kurt Suzuki 0.0705 0.0412 14.3
6 Brandon Wood 0.0741 0.0125 14.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adrian Beltré 0.0736 0.1008 19.0
2 Joe Mauer 0.0686 0.0947 16.7
3 James Loney 0.0613 0.0842 16.4
4 Travis Hafner 0.0674 0.0993 15.8
5 B.J. Upton 0.0842 0.1058 14.6
6 Omar Infante 0.0677 0.0369 14.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Álex González 0.0590 0.0911 22.4
2 Nelson Cruz 0.0693 0.1023 16.0
3 Carlos Pena 0.0893 0.0596 15.6
4 David Ortiz 0.0831 0.1043 14.7
5 Kurt Suzuki 0.0705 0.0412 14.3
6 Brandon Wood 0.0741 0.0125 14.2

Most Unique Misses for Double Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adrian Beltré 0.0736 0.0909 0.1008 19.0 8.2 10.8
2 Neil Walker 0.0645 0.0864 0.0861 11.2 1.2 10.0
3 Cameron Maybin 0.0821 0.0608 0.0363 14.0 6.9 7.1
4 Ángel Pagán 0.0782 0.0669 0.0646 7.1 0.4 6.8
5 Ike Davis 0.0677 0.0795 0.0889 14.2 7.5 6.7
6 Kelly Johnson 0.0792 0.0893 0.0865 6.5 0.1 6.4
7 Marco Scutaro 0.0591 0.0738 0.0682 8.0 1.8 6.2
8 Luis Valbuena 0.0859 0.0690 0.0556 8.7 3.2 5.4
9 Pedro Álvarez 0.0677 0.0815 0.0981 12.7 7.6 5.1
10 J.D. Drew 0.0849 0.0761 0.0676 8.1 3.0 5.1

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Cliff Pennington 0.0190
0.0088
(6.4)
0.0086
(6.5)
0.0088
(6.4)
Rafael Furcal 0.0219
0.0103
(5.4)
0.0096
(5.7)
0.0103
(5.4)
Will Venable 0.0273
0.0107
(7.8)
0.0121
(7.2)
0.0107
(7.8)
Chris Young 0.0000
0.0126
(7.7)
0.0120
(7.3)
0.0126
(7.7)
Dexter Fowler 0.0417
0.0193
(11.8)
0.0222
(10.3)
0.0193
(11.8)
Ryan Braun 0.0020
0.0135
(7.2)
0.0142
(7.7)
0.0135
(7.2)
Austin Jackson 0.0222
0.0097
(9.1)
0.0069
(10.9)
0.0097
(9.1)
Jason Bay 0.0235
0.0084
(6.5)
0.0086
(6.4)
0.0084
(6.5)
Logan Morrison 0.0366
0.0063
(9.0)
0.0069
(8.8)
0.0063
(9.0)
Melvin Mora 0.0194
0.0030
(6.1)
0.0027
(6.2)
0.0030
(6.1)
Alcides Escobar 0.0228
0.0103
(7.4)
0.0098
(7.7)
0.0103
(7.4)
Elvis Andrus 0.0059
0.0173
(7.1)
0.0165
(6.5)
0.0173
(7.1)
Evan Longoria 0.0114
0.0025
(6.5)
0.0026
(6.4)
0.0025
(6.5)
Eric Patterson 0.0413
0.0121
(6.2)
0.0055
(7.5)
0.0121
(6.2)
Justin Upton 0.0090
0.0199
(5.7)
0.0204
(6.0)
0.0199
(5.7)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ángel Pagán 0.0293 0.0146 8.7
2 Miguel Olivo 0.0082 0.0224 6.5
3 Drew Stubbs 0.0079 0.0180 6.5
4 Kevin Youkilis 0.0055 0.0178 5.8
5 Andres Torres 0.0321 0.0217 5.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.0190 0.0091 6.8
2 Wes Helms 0.0000 0.0226 6.7
3 Carl Crawford 0.0183 0.0265 6.0
4 Ben Zobrist 0.0146 0.0045 6.0
5 Tyler Colvin 0.0067 0.0207 5.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ángel Pagán 0.0293 0.0146 8.7
2 Miguel Olivo 0.0082 0.0224 6.5
3 Drew Stubbs 0.0079 0.0180 6.5
4 Kevin Youkilis 0.0055 0.0178 5.8
5 Andres Torres 0.0321 0.0217 5.4

Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tyler Colvin 0.0067 0.0182 0.0207 5.9 1.3 4.5
2 Blake DeWitt 0.0051 0.0190 0.0141 4.9 1.9 3.0
3 Jason Heyward 0.0069 0.0114 0.0133 4.5 1.8 2.8
4 Carlos González 0.0149 0.0190 0.0212 4.6 2.0 2.6
5 Peter Bourjos 0.0069 0.0201 0.0288 4.4 1.9 2.5
6 Jonny Gomes 0.0045 0.0086 0.0079 2.5 0.2 2.3
7 Starlin Castro 0.0069 0.0114 0.0126 3.3 1.1 2.3
8 Trevor Crowe 0.0136 0.0090 0.0081 2.2 0.0 2.2
9 Garrett Jones 0.0081 0.0050 0.0022 3.3 1.2 2.1
10 Jeff Keppinger 0.0088 0.0055 0.0021 3.3 1.4 1.9

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Drew Stubbs 0.1561
0.1207
(25.9)
0.1287
(20.6)
0.1207
(25.9)
Carl Crawford 0.1659
0.1398
(23.3)
0.1404
(22.2)
0.1398
(23.3)
Aubrey Huff 0.1497
0.1201
(25.8)
0.1187
(26.0)
0.1201
(25.8)
Paul Konerko 0.1410
0.1135
(23.1)
0.1175
(19.9)
0.1135
(23.1)
Austin Jackson 0.1526
0.0978
(43.0)
0.1171
(29.3)
0.0978
(43.0)
Carlos González 0.1745
0.1341
(31.4)
0.1328
(31.6)
0.1341
(31.4)
Joey Votto 0.1636
0.1324
(26.0)
0.1322
(25.5)
0.1324
(26.0)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1713
0.1332
(30.5)
0.1311
(31.2)
0.1332
(30.5)
Chone Figgins 0.0883
0.1483
(35.8)
0.1473
(35.8)
0.1483
(35.8)
Josh Hamilton 0.1664
0.1323
(24.6)
0.1325
(23.9)
0.1323
(24.6)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nyjer Morgan 0.1692 0.1040 32.5
2 Ike Davis 0.0880 0.1215 25.5
3 Robinson Canó 0.1262 0.1480 21.4
4 Lance Berkman 0.1517 0.0998 20.6
5 Alex Rios 0.1198 0.1442 20.6
6 Adam Jones 0.1640 0.1224 20.3
7 Tyler Colvin 0.1101 0.1519 20.1
8 Nate McLouth 0.1825 0.1042 20.0
9 Michael Saunders 0.1586 0.0887 19.9
10 Kevin Youkilis 0.1412 0.1770 19.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Bautista 0.1219 0.1596 31.2
2 Martín Prado 0.1263 0.1536 23.0
3 Adam Lind 0.1336 0.0930 20.0
4 Hunter Pence 0.1193 0.1413 19.7
5 Brett Gardner 0.1444 0.1705 19.4
6 Ichiro Suzuki 0.1352 0.1011 19.1
7 Alex Rodriguez 0.1644 0.1244 19.1
8 Orlando Hudson 0.1173 0.1431 18.9
9 Howie Kendrick 0.1383 0.1018 18.8
10 Chris Young 0.1214 0.1416 18.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nyjer Morgan 0.1692 0.1040 32.5
2 Ike Davis 0.0880 0.1215 25.5
3 Robinson Canó 0.1262 0.1480 21.4
4 Lance Berkman 0.1517 0.0998 20.6
5 Alex Rios 0.1198 0.1442 20.6
6 Adam Jones 0.1640 0.1224 20.3
7 Tyler Colvin 0.1101 0.1519 20.1
8 Nate McLouth 0.1825 0.1042 20.0
9 Michael Saunders 0.1586 0.0887 19.9
10 Kevin Youkilis 0.1412 0.1770 19.5

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 José Bautista 0.1219 0.1432 0.1596 31.2 17.3 13.8
2 Jason Heyward 0.1171 0.1391 0.1332 15.0 1.9 13.1
3 Casey McGehee 0.1343 0.1173 0.1045 14.7 2.6 12.1
4 Alex Avila 0.1230 0.0925 0.0841 10.3 0.2 10.1
5 Juan Pierre 0.1250 0.1389 0.1308 10.1 0.6 9.5
6 Albert Pujols 0.1569 0.1703 0.1643 10.8 2.1 8.7
7 Adam Moore 0.1250 0.0892 0.0550 13.5 5.5 8.0
8 Johnny Damon 0.1551 0.1441 0.1321 9.2 1.8 7.3
9 Ryan Zimmerman 0.1374 0.1498 0.1410 6.9 0.0 6.9
10 Alex Rodriguez 0.1644 0.1541 0.1244 19.1 12.4 6.7

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Troy Tulowitzki 0.1796
0.1331
(30.7)
0.1343
(27.7)
0.1331
(30.7)
Bengie Molina 0.0865
0.1770
(32.8)
0.1522
(24.4)
0.1770
(32.8)
Paul Konerko 0.1759
0.1294
(36.7)
0.1320
(32.1)
0.1294
(36.7)
Carlos González 0.1840
0.1210
(47.4)
0.0952
(60.9)
0.1210
(47.4)
Nick Markakis 0.0846
0.1474
(36.3)
0.1374
(32.5)
0.1474
(36.3)
Prince Fielder 0.1162
0.2067
(56.3)
0.1672
(31.4)
0.2067
(56.3)
Miguel Cabrera 0.1944
0.1611
(29.2)
0.1618
(25.7)
0.1611
(29.2)
José Bautista 0.1816
0.1263
(45.7)
0.1106
(53.2)
0.1263
(45.7)
Delmon Young 0.1827
0.1356
(36.0)
0.1266
(38.7)
0.1356
(36.0)
Brandon Phillips 0.0859
0.1452
(32.8)
0.1372
(30.5)
0.1452
(32.8)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Stubbs 0.0777 0.1321 38.5
2 Pablo Sandoval 0.1705 0.1023 34.9
3 Álex González 0.0973 0.1375 33.2
4 Alex Rodriguez 0.1667 0.2101 32.7
5 Ian Desmond 0.0702 0.1132 31.3
6 Scott Rolen 0.1121 0.1546 29.0
7 Yuniesky Betancourt 0.0955 0.1327 28.7
8 Ryan Ludwick 0.1873 0.1248 28.1
9 Dan Uggla 0.1262 0.1558 27.8
10 Orlando Hudson 0.1272 0.0662 27.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Corey Hart 0.1248 0.1661 29.7
2 Austin Jackson 0.1116 0.0607 29.6
3 Adrian Beltré 0.1207 0.1591 29.1
4 Erick Aybar 0.1048 0.0492 28.6
5 Robinson Canó 0.1258 0.1566 26.3
6 Chris Young 0.1063 0.1370 25.1
7 Vladimir Guerrero 0.1473 0.1788 24.8
8 Pedro Álvarez 0.1116 0.1658 23.6
9 Neil Walker 0.0978 0.1407 23.4
10 Joey Votto 0.1453 0.1744 23.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Stubbs 0.0777 0.1321 38.5
2 Pablo Sandoval 0.1705 0.1023 34.9
3 Álex González 0.0973 0.1375 33.2
4 Alex Rodriguez 0.1667 0.2101 32.7
5 Ian Desmond 0.0702 0.1132 31.3
6 Scott Rolen 0.1121 0.1546 29.0
7 Yuniesky Betancourt 0.0955 0.1327 28.7
8 Ryan Ludwick 0.1873 0.1248 28.1
9 Dan Uggla 0.1262 0.1558 27.8
10 Orlando Hudson 0.1272 0.0662 27.6

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adrian Beltré 0.1207 0.1770 0.1591 29.1 4.0 25.1
2 Vladimir Guerrero 0.1473 0.1876 0.1788 24.8 1.8 23.0
3 Austin Jackson 0.1116 0.0843 0.0607 29.6 8.1 21.5
4 Corey Hart 0.1248 0.1569 0.1661 29.7 12.8 16.9
5 Neil Walker 0.0978 0.1694 0.1407 23.4 8.0 15.4
6 Chris Young 0.1063 0.1320 0.1370 25.1 11.1 14.0
7 Carlos González 0.0952 0.1210 0.1840 60.9 47.4 13.5
8 Pedro Álvarez 0.1116 0.1487 0.1658 23.6 11.1 12.5
9 Johnny Damon 0.1176 0.1019 0.0832 16.8 4.4 12.5
10 Elvis Andrus 0.0857 0.0730 0.0519 18.1 6.4 11.7

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Alex Rios 0.2222
0.1477
(43.2)
0.1460
(48.2)
0.1477
(43.2)
Cliff Pennington 0.2071
0.1078
(54.6)
0.0909
(68.0)
0.1078
(54.6)
Ángel Pagán 0.2256
0.1500
(44.9)
0.1250
(64.9)
0.1500
(44.9)
Will Venable 0.2566
0.0652
(83.1)
0.0645
(86.3)
0.0652
(83.1)
Rafael Furcal 0.1864
0.0769
(44.9)
0.0927
(40.9)
0.0769
(44.9)
B.J. Upton 0.3088
0.2096
(57.7)
0.2025
(66.0)
0.2096
(57.7)
Franklin Gutierrez 0.1667
0.0625
(62.6)
0.0935
(47.2)
0.0625
(62.6)
Jarrod Dyson 0.8182
0.0649
(48.7)
0.0649
(49.1)
0.0649
(48.7)
Andres Torres 0.2047
0.1011
(56.4)
0.1045
(58.2)
0.1011
(56.4)
Coco Crisp 0.3765
0.1935
(58.5)
0.1685
(68.8)
0.1935
(58.5)
Brandon Phillips 0.0941
0.1678
(53.8)
0.1583
(42.8)
0.1678
(53.8)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Young 0.0667 0.1687 64.7
2 José Reyes 0.3028 0.2113 58.0
3 Julio Borbon 0.2398 0.1210 57.8
4 Jayson Nix 0.1429 0.0139 48.5
5 Rajai Davis 0.2617 0.3497 46.8
6 Alcides Escobar 0.1534 0.0769 44.7
7 Elvis Andrus 0.2138 0.1546 43.0
8 Ichiro Suzuki 0.1250 0.1883 43.0
9 Alex Rodriguez 0.0943 0.0282 42.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Austin Jackson 0.0649 0.1467 56.6
2 Peter Bourjos 0.0649 0.3448 54.4
3 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.1250 0.0521 53.5
4 Corey Hart 0.1327 0.0500 49.6
5 Adrian Beltré 0.0877 0.0129 46.7
6 Drew Stubbs 0.1316 0.2083 45.9
7 Eric Young Jr. 0.1000 0.3208 42.1
8 Torii Hunter 0.1190 0.0529 41.5
9 Jose Tabata 0.0649 0.1557 40.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Young 0.0667 0.1687 64.7
2 José Reyes 0.3028 0.2113 58.0
3 Julio Borbon 0.2398 0.1210 57.8
4 Jayson Nix 0.1429 0.0139 48.5
5 Rajai Davis 0.2617 0.3497 46.8
6 Alcides Escobar 0.1534 0.0769 44.7
7 Elvis Andrus 0.2138 0.1546 43.0
8 Ichiro Suzuki 0.1250 0.1883 43.0
9 Alex Rodriguez 0.0943 0.0282 42.1

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Drew Stubbs 0.1316 0.2055 0.2083 45.9 1.0 44.8
2 Corey Hart 0.1327 0.0640 0.0500 49.6 11.4 38.2
3 Eric Young Jr. 0.1000 0.2922 0.3208 42.1 4.5 37.6
4 Austin Jackson 0.0649 0.1127 0.1467 56.6 19.9 36.7
5 Ian Desmond 0.0690 0.1181 0.1278 34.9 2.9 31.9
6 Torii Hunter 0.1190 0.0698 0.0529 41.5 13.8 27.6
7 Matt Kemp 0.1709 0.1265 0.1284 27.1 1.8 25.3
8 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.1250 0.0874 0.0521 53.5 30.0 23.5
9 Alfonso Soriano 0.1161 0.0696 0.0459 37.4 15.5 21.9
10 Peter Bourjos 0.0649 0.1719 0.3448 54.4 32.5 21.9

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.2688
0.2395
(27.0)
0.2448
(25.1)
0.2395
(27.0)
Dan Uggla 0.2869
0.2458
(32.1)
0.2505
(30.8)
0.2458
(32.1)
Nelson Cruz 0.3183
0.2697
(24.5)
0.2637
(28.5)
0.2697
(24.5)
Nick Swisher 0.2880
0.2427
(32.9)
0.2452
(33.1)
0.2427
(32.9)
Carlos Ruiz 0.3019
0.2515
(24.6)
0.2480
(27.4)
0.2515
(24.6)
Austin Jackson 0.2929
0.2468
(35.5)
0.2612
(27.7)
0.2468
(35.5)
Carlos González 0.3356
0.2705
(45.5)
0.2659
(50.2)
0.2705
(45.5)
Paul Konerko 0.3120
0.2685
(31.5)
0.2614
(37.8)
0.2685
(31.5)
Adrian Beltré 0.3209
0.2762
(32.8)
0.2670
(40.5)
0.2762
(32.8)
Aaron Hill 0.2045
0.2746
(36.9)
0.2807
(38.8)
0.2746
(36.9)
Matt Kemp 0.2492
0.3002
(29.7)
0.2962
(25.2)
0.3002
(29.7)
Mark Reynolds 0.1984
0.2585
(32.0)
0.2562
(28.9)
0.2585
(32.0)
Carlos Lee 0.2463
0.2976
(29.1)
0.2992
(28.3)
0.2976
(29.1)
Josh Hamilton 0.3591
0.2833
(47.0)
0.2857
(47.2)
0.2833
(47.0)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Buck 0.2208 0.2812 29.2
2 Pablo Sandoval 0.3199 0.2682 27.9
3 José Bautista 0.2271 0.2601 27.0
4 Ike Davis 0.2267 0.2639 26.2
5 Chris Johnson 0.2433 0.3079 25.7
6 Adrián González 0.2677 0.2978 25.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Billy Butler 0.2870 0.3176 27.1
2 Buster Posey 0.2539 0.3054 27.0
3 Carlos Pena 0.2511 0.1963 26.5
4 Derek Jeter 0.3143 0.2700 25.9
5 Jay Bruce 0.2451 0.2809 25.9
6 Justin Morneau 0.2808 0.3446 25.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Buck 0.2208 0.2812 29.2
2 Pablo Sandoval 0.3199 0.2682 27.9
3 José Bautista 0.2271 0.2601 27.0
4 Ike Davis 0.2267 0.2639 26.2
5 Chris Johnson 0.2433 0.3079 25.7
6 Adrián González 0.2677 0.2978 25.4

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jorge Posada 0.2954 0.2556 0.2480 17.2 0.5 16.7
2 Daric Barton 0.2516 0.2680 0.2734 21.3 8.2 13.1
3 Kelly Johnson 0.2656 0.2788 0.2838 18.4 7.7 10.7
4 Jason Heyward 0.2612 0.2746 0.2769 15.6 5.5 10.1
5 Ronny Cedeno 0.2361 0.2522 0.2564 14.9 5.4 9.5
6 Felipe López 0.2817 0.2582 0.2327 17.5 8.4 9.1
7 Mark Teixeira 0.2951 0.2805 0.2562 21.0 12.7 8.4
8 Chone Figgins 0.2941 0.2797 0.2591 18.0 9.9 8.1
9 Alexei Ramirez 0.2783 0.2882 0.2821 8.2 0.2 8.0
10 Alex Avila 0.2651 0.2386 0.2279 9.3 1.4 7.9

On-Base Percentage

Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Robinson Canó 0.3807
0.3354
(37.2)
0.3377
(36.8)
0.3354
(37.2)
Aubrey Huff 0.3847
0.3328
(40.1)
0.3333
(40.9)
0.3328
(40.1)
Brett Gardner 0.3830
0.3295
(35.0)
0.3305
(35.5)
0.3295
(35.0)
Paul Konerko 0.3930
0.3528
(30.4)
0.3472
(35.2)
0.3528
(30.4)
Carlos Ruiz 0.3995
0.3429
(28.0)
0.3365
(31.6)
0.3429
(28.0)
Jason Heyward 0.3933
0.3448
(35.2)
0.3300
(45.6)
0.3448
(35.2)
Carlos González 0.3758
0.3371
(29.8)
0.3241
(39.2)
0.3371
(29.8)
Adrian Beltré 0.3651
0.3268
(29.7)
0.3185
(36.2)
0.3268
(29.7)
Aramis Ramirez 0.2939
0.3702
(34.6)
0.3698
(33.5)
0.3702
(34.6)
Joey Votto 0.4244
0.3735
(38.2)
0.3799
(35.2)
0.3735
(38.2)
Miguel Cabrera 0.4198
0.3792
(31.5)
0.3754
(35.2)
0.3792
(31.5)
José Bautista 0.3777
0.3263
(40.6)
0.3341
(36.6)
0.3263
(40.6)
Carlos Lee 0.2912
0.3538
(35.4)
0.3497
(31.6)
0.3538
(35.4)
Josh Hamilton 0.4105
0.3475
(40.6)
0.3488
(40.9)
0.3475
(40.6)

Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Austin Jackson 0.3002 0.3452 35.9
2 Ike Davis 0.3021 0.3511 34.3
3 Brandon Wood 0.3016 0.1745 28.9
4 Wilson Betemit 0.2957 0.3778 28.4
5 Adam Lind 0.3412 0.2871 28.2
6 Jim Thome 0.3388 0.4118 27.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Daric Barton 0.3446 0.3932 40.1
2 Billy Butler 0.3450 0.3879 35.8
3 Ryan Zimmerman 0.3444 0.3881 32.3
4 Justin Morneau 0.3575 0.4368 31.0
5 Colby Rasmus 0.3156 0.3609 29.5
6 Aaron Hill 0.3299 0.2712 28.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Austin Jackson 0.3002 0.3452 35.9
2 Ike Davis 0.3021 0.3511 34.3
3 Brandon Wood 0.3016 0.1745 28.9
4 Wilson Betemit 0.2957 0.3778 28.4
5 Adam Lind 0.3412 0.2871 28.2
6 Jim Thome 0.3388 0.4118 27.6

Most Unique Misses for On-Base Percentage

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Daric Barton 0.3446 0.3664 0.3932 40.1 23.9 16.2
2 Buster Posey 0.3224 0.3460 0.3567 19.6 8.3 11.3
3 Tommy Manzella 0.3350 0.2938 0.2671 16.3 5.2 11.1
4 Gaby Sanchez 0.3333 0.3479 0.3406 11.1 0.5 10.6
5 Jason Heyward 0.3300 0.3448 0.3933 45.6 35.2 10.3
6 Billy Butler 0.3450 0.3576 0.3879 35.8 26.0 9.8
7 Julio Borbon 0.3527 0.3306 0.3087 16.0 6.5 9.5
8 Carlos González 0.3241 0.3371 0.3758 39.2 29.8 9.4
9 Kelly Johnson 0.3426 0.3546 0.3698 24.9 15.6 9.3
10 Ryan Zimmerman 0.3444 0.3563 0.3881 32.3 24.0 8.3

Slugging Percentage

Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Jim Thome 0.6268
0.4321
(70.9)
0.4922
(53.1)
0.4321
(70.9)
Pablo Sandoval 0.4085
0.5159
(57.7)
0.5181
(54.2)
0.5159
(57.7)
Corey Hart 0.5251
0.4531
(52.7)
0.4605
(53.0)
0.4531
(52.7)
Colby Rasmus 0.4978
0.4110
(53.7)
0.4112
(57.8)
0.4110
(53.7)
Carlos Pena 0.4070
0.5239
(60.0)
0.5291
(58.5)
0.5239
(60.0)
Vernon Wells 0.5153
0.4300
(64.0)
0.4248
(72.4)
0.4300
(64.0)
Paul Konerko 0.5839
0.4649
(83.8)
0.4689
(86.3)
0.4649
(83.8)
Carlos González 0.5980
0.4590
(97.1)
0.4377
(115.7)
0.4590
(97.1)
Adrian Beltré 0.5535
0.4540
(72.6)
0.4354
(89.6)
0.4540
(72.6)
Joey Votto 0.5996
0.5000
(73.5)
0.5190
(66.3)
0.5000
(73.5)
Miguel Cabrera 0.6223
0.5361
(64.8)
0.5319
(72.6)
0.5361
(64.8)
José Bautista 0.6169
0.3889
(165.1)
0.4110
(155.4)
0.3889
(165.1)
Buster Posey 0.5049
0.3983
(53.3)
0.3938
(58.8)
0.3983
(53.3)
Josh Hamilton 0.6332
0.4877
(91.0)
0.4901
(94.1)
0.4877
(91.0)

Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Álex González 0.3537 0.4471 68.5
2 Drew Stubbs 0.3479 0.4436 63.8
3 Andres Torres 0.3965 0.4793 55.0
4 Carlos Lee 0.5142 0.4165 54.4
5 Casey McGehee 0.3972 0.4639 53.9
6 Giancarlo Stanton 0.3894 0.5070 52.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ben Zobrist 0.4878 0.3530 74.0
2 Delmon Young 0.4152 0.4930 61.0
3 Robinson Canó 0.4689 0.5335 60.1
4 Troy Tulowitzki 0.4810 0.5681 57.6
5 Kelly Johnson 0.4323 0.4957 57.1
6 Nick Swisher 0.4499 0.5106 52.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Álex González 0.3537 0.4471 68.5
2 Drew Stubbs 0.3479 0.4436 63.8
3 Andres Torres 0.3965 0.4793 55.0
4 Carlos Lee 0.5142 0.4165 54.4
5 Casey McGehee 0.3972 0.4639 53.9
6 Giancarlo Stanton 0.3894 0.5070 52.0

Most Unique Misses for Slugging Percentage

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kelly Johnson 0.4323 0.4724 0.4957 57.1 24.9 32.2
2 Neil Walker 0.3900 0.4473 0.4624 44.1 13.6 30.6
3 Lou Marson 0.4206 0.3255 0.2863 33.1 7.5 25.6
4 Alex Avila 0.4558 0.3722 0.3401 31.3 6.1 25.2
5 Billy Butler 0.4461 0.4750 0.4689 30.2 5.2 25.0
6 Ben Zobrist 0.4878 0.4426 0.3530 74.0 49.6 24.4
7 Rubén Tejada 0.4110 0.3245 0.2824 27.2 7.2 20.0
8 Ryan Zimmerman 0.4769 0.5008 0.5105 33.3 14.1 19.2
9 Mark Teixeira 0.5395 0.5052 0.4809 26.3 7.5 18.7
10 Julio Borbon 0.4144 0.3665 0.3402 24.6 5.9 18.7

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Doug Davis 191
797
(606.0)
761
(570.0)
797
(606.0)
Sean West 47
666
(619.0)
509
(462.0)
666
(619.0)
Ian Snell 227
862
(635.0)
663
(436.0)
862
(635.0)
Jake Westbrook 860
231
(629.0)
267
(593.0)
231
(629.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kevin Mulvey 714 17 697.0
2 Billy Buckner 766 72 694.0
3 Drew Carpenter 698 14 684.0
4 Matt Maloney 749 86 663.0
5 Evan MacLane 665 4 661.0
6 Josh Banks 671 24 647.0
7 Samuel Deduno 633 12 621.0
8 Esmailin Caridad 643 23 620.0
9 Mitch Atkins 664 49 615.0
10 Charlie Haeger 753 151 602.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Colby Lewis 114 844 730.0
2 Rodrigo Lopez 295 874 579.0
3 Jaime García 134 695 561.0
4 C.J. Wilson 290 850 560.0
5 Ian Kennedy 261 810 549.0
6 Tim Hudson 388 920 532.0
7 Mitch Talbot 168 696 528.0
8 Jason Marquis 791 276 515.0
9 Brett Myers 425 936 511.0
10 Mike Hampton 524 16 508.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kevin Mulvey 714 17 697.0
2 Billy Buckner 766 72 694.0
3 Drew Carpenter 698 14 684.0
4 Matt Maloney 749 86 663.0
5 Evan MacLane 665 4 661.0
6 Josh Banks 671 24 647.0
7 Samuel Deduno 633 12 621.0
8 Esmailin Caridad 643 23 620.0
9 Mitch Atkins 664 49 615.0
10 Charlie Haeger 753 151 602.0

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Colby Lewis 114 759 844 730.0 85.0 645.0
2 Kyle Kendrick 365 771 771 406.0 0.0 406.0
3 Jhoulys Chacín 155 636 583 428.0 53.0 375.0
4 Hisanori Takahashi 100 572 516 416.0 56.0 360.0
5 Mitch Talbot 168 524 696 528.0 172.0 356.0
6 Brian Matusz 371 685 760 389.0 75.0 314.0
7 Wade Davis 342 790 722 380.0 68.0 312.0
8 Jonathon Niese 334 641 770 436.0 129.0 307.0
9 Carlos Monasterios 100 403 399 299.0 4.0 295.0
10 Doug Fister 380 656 720 340.0 64.0 276.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Joe Thatcher 288 288 137 151.0 151.0 0.0
2 Mark Rogers 322 322 36 286.0 286.0 0.0
3 Joel Peralta 293 293 189 104.0 104.0 0.0
4 Sean Burnett 293 293 261 32.0 32.0 0.0
5 Brad Kilby 310 310 32 278.0 278.0 0.0
6 Matt Capps 275 275 305 30.0 30.0 0.0
7 Ryan Madson 326 326 217 109.0 109.0 0.0
8 Jaime García 298 298 695 397.0 397.0 0.0
9 Jeremy Jeffress 341 341 42 299.0 299.0 0.0
10 Alfredo Aceves 334 334 53 281.0 281.0 0.0

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Trevor Cahill 0.2783
0.3111
(42.0)
0.3451
(48.3)
0.3111
(42.0)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.4065
0.2875
(50.0)
0.3174
(48.0)
0.2875
(50.0)
Roy Oswalt 0.2700
0.2862
(31.0)
0.3140
(32.6)
0.2862
(31.0)
Gio Gonzalez 0.2930
0.3216
(42.1)
0.3577
(50.7)
0.3216
(42.1)
Ricky Romero 0.3015
0.3222
(36.7)
0.3449
(33.7)
0.3222
(36.7)
A.J. Burnett 0.3601
0.2983
(34.0)
0.3202
(37.3)
0.2983
(34.0)
Rich Harden 0.3724
0.2794
(31.0)
0.3049
(31.2)
0.2794
(31.0)
Javier Vazquez 0.3549
0.2689
(44.4)
0.3004
(40.7)
0.2689
(44.4)
Livan Hernandez 0.3114
0.3312
(36.5)
0.3623
(41.0)
0.3312
(36.5)
Scott Kazmir 0.3680
0.2924
(37.3)
0.3254
(32.6)
0.2924
(37.3)
R.A. Dickey 0.2911
0.3189
(34.7)
0.3455
(35.1)
0.3189
(34.7)
Jered Weaver 0.2749
0.2942
(36.4)
0.3213
(37.4)
0.2942
(36.4)
Josh Beckett 0.3682
0.2743
(42.2)
0.3075
(38.0)
0.2743
(42.2)
James Shields 0.3589
0.2824
(50.1)
0.3237
(36.2)
0.2824
(50.1)
Brett Myers 0.3003
0.3151
(33.4)
0.3453
(37.4)
0.3151
(33.4)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dan Haren 0.2572 0.3201 41.8
2 Zach Duke 0.3036 0.3788 39.7
3 David Price 0.3062 0.2860 35.4
4 Paul Maholm 0.2921 0.3533 33.9
5 Scott Feldman 0.2956 0.3674 32.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Clay Buchholz 0.3341 0.2790 35.5
2 Félix Hernández 0.3035 0.2632 35.1
3 Mat Latos 0.3206 0.2685 35.1
4 Brad Bergesen 0.3202 0.3579 31.9
5 Francisco Liriano 0.3435 0.2991 31.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dan Haren 0.2572 0.3201 41.8
2 Zach Duke 0.3036 0.3788 39.7
3 David Price 0.3062 0.2860 35.4
4 Paul Maholm 0.2921 0.3533 33.9
5 Scott Feldman 0.2956 0.3674 32.6

Most Unique Misses for wOBA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Félix Hernández 0.3035 0.2589 0.2632 35.1 16.6 18.6
2 Jon Garland 0.3381 0.2889 0.3104 18.9 0.5 18.4
3 Francisco Liriano 0.3435 0.2973 0.2991 31.6 15.4 16.2
4 Mike Leake 0.3208 0.3208 0.3503 20.9 5.2 15.7
5 Craig Stammen 0.3302 0.3304 0.3518 15.0 0.3 14.7
6 Ian Kennedy 0.3445 0.3015 0.3055 27.4 13.7 13.7
7 Jeanmar Gómez 0.3208 0.3479 0.3680 13.9 0.2 13.7
8 Freddy Garcia 0.3284 0.3225 0.3469 15.9 2.4 13.5
9 Brad Bergesen 0.3202 0.3121 0.3579 31.9 18.6 13.4
10 Tommy Hanson 0.3100 0.2671 0.2885 13.8 0.5 13.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Freddy Garcia 0.3225 0.3225 0.3469 2.4 2.4 0.0
2 Jaime García 0.3094 0.3094 0.2898 28.1 28.1 0.0
3 Jeremy Bonderman 0.3187 0.3187 0.3465 5.2 5.2 0.0
4 Alfredo Simon 0.3931 0.3931 0.3603 11.9 11.9 0.0
5 Drew Storen 0.2900 0.2900 0.2909 4.6 4.6 0.0
6 Blake Hawksworth 0.3009 0.3009 0.3686 19.2 19.2 0.0
7 Chris Ray 0.3133 0.3133 0.3076 6.2 6.2 0.0
8 Carlos Monasterios 0.3397 0.3397 0.3459 5.8 5.8 0.0
9 Matt Capps 0.2808 0.2808 0.3008 0.3 0.3 0.0
10 Fernando Rodney 0.3013 0.3013 0.3334 3.5 3.5 0.0

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Roy Oswalt 0.2306
0.1786
(33.9)
0.1826
(36.9)
0.1786
(33.9)
Carlos Marmol 0.4157
0.2978
(35.3)
0.2557
(51.8)
0.2978
(35.3)
Mat Latos 0.2527
0.1616
(59.6)
0.1799
(51.5)
0.1616
(59.6)
Rich Harden 0.1744
0.2687
(45.4)
0.2586
(37.9)
0.2687
(45.4)
Javier Vazquez 0.1772
0.2264
(41.5)
0.2371
(43.7)
0.2264
(41.5)
Brandon Morrow 0.2830
0.2126
(37.1)
0.2087
(44.2)
0.2126
(37.1)
Randy Wolf 0.1517
0.1828
(39.8)
0.1883
(38.0)
0.1828
(39.8)
Scott Kazmir 0.1364
0.2158
(62.0)
0.2141
(55.7)
0.2158
(62.0)
Jered Weaver 0.2575
0.1827
(57.3)
0.1910
(56.5)
0.1827
(57.3)
Colby Lewis 0.2322
0.1686
(44.0)
0.1754
(44.6)
0.1686
(44.0)
A.J. Burnett 0.1749
0.2072
(36.3)
0.2205
(41.1)
0.2072
(36.3)
Jon Lester 0.2613
0.2023
(40.9)
0.2157
(35.9)
0.2023
(40.9)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Johan Santana 0.2374 0.1763 59.3
2 Zack Greinke 0.2433 0.1970 53.1
3 Jhoulys Chacín 0.1352 0.2367 52.5
4 Jonny Venters 0.1209 0.2657 46.7
5 Tommy Hanson 0.2438 0.2047 42.7
6 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1860 0.2394 37.5
7 Matt Belisle 0.1362 0.2493 37.1
8 Sean Marshall 0.1719 0.2932 33.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Francisco Liriano 0.1935 0.2494 41.9
2 Billy Wagner 0.2288 0.3881 41.6
3 Stephen Strasburg 0.1849 0.3358 40.2
4 Carl Pavano 0.1676 0.1291 38.5
5 Joel Hanrahan 0.2128 0.3401 36.3
6 Adam Wainwright 0.1913 0.2341 35.4
7 Mitch Talbot 0.1726 0.1264 34.9
8 Rafael Betancourt 0.2146 0.3589 34.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Johan Santana 0.2374 0.1763 59.3
2 Zack Greinke 0.2433 0.1970 53.1
3 Jhoulys Chacín 0.1352 0.2367 52.5
4 Jonny Venters 0.1209 0.2657 46.7
5 Tommy Hanson 0.2438 0.2047 42.7
6 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1860 0.2394 37.5
7 Matt Belisle 0.1362 0.2493 37.1
8 Sean Marshall 0.1719 0.2932 33.7

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Luis Atilano 0.1849 0.0966 0.1039 32.7 1.6 31.1
2 Mitch Talbot 0.1726 0.1221 0.1264 34.9 5.0 29.9
3 Adam Wainwright 0.1913 0.2117 0.2341 35.4 9.9 25.5
4 Doug Fister 0.1632 0.1204 0.1292 27.3 2.0 25.4
5 Barry Enright 0.1849 0.1203 0.1195 28.4 5.0 23.4
6 Brad Bergesen 0.1469 0.1094 0.1086 31.5 9.2 22.4
7 Billy Wagner 0.2288 0.2973 0.3881 41.6 21.3 20.4
8 Rick Porcello 0.1426 0.1081 0.1200 18.6 0.3 18.3
9 Félix Hernández 0.2077 0.2225 0.2318 20.2 2.1 18.0
10 Eddie Bonine 0.1522 0.0870 0.0858 21.3 3.8 17.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jake Westbrook 0.1342 0.1342 0.1488 2.7 2.7 0.0
2 Mat Latos 0.1616 0.1616 0.2527 59.6 59.6 0.0
3 Drew Storen 0.2222 0.2222 0.2241 2.2 2.2 0.0
4 Hung-Chih Kuo 0.2772 0.2772 0.3188 6.9 6.9 0.0
5 Jonathan Papelbon 0.2868 0.2868 0.2648 9.6 9.6 0.0
6 Joakim Soria 0.2835 0.2835 0.2630 8.6 8.6 0.0
7 Rafael Soriano 0.2652 0.2652 0.2405 8.6 8.6 0.0
8 Chris Perez 0.2571 0.2571 0.2346 8.8 8.8 0.0
9 David Robertson 0.2630 0.2630 0.2601 3.9 3.9 0.0
10 Chris Ray 0.2032 0.2032 0.1325 19.2 19.2 0.0

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Wilton Lopez 0.0191
0.0850
(17.1)
0.0872
(17.8)
0.0850
(17.1)
Tommy Hanson 0.0663
0.0937
(22.6)
0.0880
(18.3)
0.0937
(22.6)
Rich Harden 0.1442
0.1007
(18.9)
0.1015
(18.4)
0.1007
(18.9)
Javier Vazquez 0.0952
0.0575
(26.2)
0.0631
(21.9)
0.0575
(26.2)
R.A. Dickey 0.0589
0.0951
(25.3)
0.0954
(25.9)
0.0951
(25.3)
Aníbal Sánchez 0.0832
0.1064
(19.0)
0.1059
(19.0)
0.1064
(19.0)
Cliff Lee 0.0214
0.0509
(24.4)
0.0539
(27.3)
0.0509
(24.4)
Jon Garland 0.1039
0.0642
(33.8)
0.0716
(27.1)
0.0642
(33.8)
Shaun Marcum 0.0537
0.0747
(16.3)
0.0814
(22.0)
0.0747
(16.3)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Travis Wood 0.1150 0.0621 21.9
2 Brandon Morrow 0.1388 0.1049 20.9
3 Jon Lester 0.0740 0.0964 19.8
4 Aaron Cook 0.0589 0.0909 18.7
5 Rick Porcello 0.0815 0.0543 18.6
6 Tim Hudson 0.0620 0.0804 17.6
7 Cole Hamels 0.0515 0.0713 17.4
8 CC Sabathia 0.0592 0.0763 17.1
9 Josh Beckett 0.0508 0.0780 16.0
10 John Axford 0.1812 0.1134 16.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Doug Fister 0.0763 0.0444 22.9
2 Francisco Liriano 0.0993 0.0720 22.0
3 Mat Latos 0.0952 0.0668 21.2
4 Kris Medlen 0.0935 0.0479 19.9
5 Matt Cain 0.0898 0.0681 19.4
6 Jeff Karstens 0.0876 0.0514 18.9
7 Roberto Hernandez 0.1032 0.0818 18.7
8 Roy Halladay 0.0487 0.0302 18.2
9 Dontrelle Willis 0.1204 0.1772 18.0
10 Dallas Braden 0.0782 0.0551 18.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Travis Wood 0.1150 0.0621 21.9
2 Brandon Morrow 0.1388 0.1049 20.9
3 Jon Lester 0.0740 0.0964 19.8
4 Aaron Cook 0.0589 0.0909 18.7
5 Rick Porcello 0.0815 0.0543 18.6
6 Tim Hudson 0.0620 0.0804 17.6
7 Cole Hamels 0.0515 0.0713 17.4
8 CC Sabathia 0.0592 0.0763 17.1
9 Josh Beckett 0.0508 0.0780 16.0
10 John Axford 0.1812 0.1134 16.0

Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Rodrigo Lopez 0.0814 0.0628 0.0641 15.0 1.6 13.4
2 Bud Norris 0.0921 0.1089 0.1127 14.2 3.1 11.1
3 Roy Halladay 0.0487 0.0385 0.0302 18.2 7.6 10.6
4 Doug Fister 0.0763 0.0625 0.0444 22.9 12.5 10.3
5 Felipe Paulino 0.0846 0.1080 0.1119 11.3 1.9 9.4
6 Wade LeBlanc 0.0978 0.0835 0.0816 10.1 0.8 9.3
7 Francisco Liriano 0.0993 0.0897 0.0720 22.0 13.8 8.2
8 Joe Blanton 0.0713 0.0614 0.0562 11.5 3.5 8.0
9 Esmerling Vasquez 0.1004 0.1340 0.1583 13.9 6.0 7.9
10 Roberto Hernandez 0.1032 0.0948 0.0818 18.7 10.8 7.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jaime García 0.1007 0.1007 0.0921 5.5 5.5 0.0
2 John Axford 0.1812 0.1812 0.1134 16.0 16.0 0.0
3 Evan Meek 0.1280 0.1280 0.0957 10.3 10.3 0.0
4 Tyler Clippard 0.1176 0.1176 0.1085 3.2 3.2 0.0
5 Joel Zumaya 0.1486 0.1486 0.0705 12.1 12.1 0.0
6 Bruce Chen 0.0837 0.0837 0.0938 6.5 6.5 0.0
7 J.J. Putz 0.1088 0.1088 0.0685 8.7 8.7 0.0
8 Chris Perez 0.1179 0.1179 0.1077 2.5 2.5 0.0
9 David Robertson 0.1234 0.1234 0.1209 0.5 0.5 0.0
10 Jason Frasor 0.0973 0.0973 0.0968 0.0 0.0 0.0

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Jeremy Guthrie 0.0183
0.0000
(9.0)
0.0092
(8.0)
0.0000
(9.0)
Jonny Venters 0.0229
0.0000
(5.2)
0.0083
(5.1)
0.0000
(5.2)
Jason Marquis 0.0290
0.0000
(5.8)
0.0076
(5.9)
0.0000
(5.8)
Tommy Hanson 0.0166
0.0000
(7.2)
0.0094
(6.2)
0.0000
(7.2)
Rich Harden 0.0209
0.0000
(5.6)
0.0082
(5.5)
0.0000
(5.6)
Jason Vargas 0.0012
0.0000
(5.5)
0.0075
(5.0)
0.0000
(5.5)
Scott Kazmir 0.0176
0.0000
(6.5)
0.0076
(6.8)
0.0000
(6.5)
Phil Hughes 0.0000
0.0000
(5.9)
0.0113
(8.2)
0.0000
(5.9)
Chad Gaudin 0.0271
0.0000
(5.6)
0.0107
(4.9)
0.0000
(5.6)
Jered Weaver 0.0000
0.0000
(7.3)
0.0064
(5.7)
0.0000
(7.3)
Brett Cecil 0.0014
0.0000
(4.8)
0.0105
(6.6)
0.0000
(4.8)
A.J. Burnett 0.0229
0.0000
(12.3)
0.0114
(9.6)
0.0000
(12.3)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Leake 0.0083 0.0050 6.9
2 Mark Buehrle 0.0000 0.0011 6.2
3 Cliff Lee 0.0000 0.0012 5.8
4 Carlos Marmol 0.0000 0.0241 5.3
5 Chris Carpenter 0.0000 0.0134 5.2
6 Carlos Monasterios 0.0000 0.0201 4.8
7 Ramon E Ramirez 0.0083 0.0000 4.6
8 Justin Masterson 0.0000 0.0137 4.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dave Bush 0.0175 0.0051 9.6
2 Kyle Kendrick 0.0137 0.0039 7.5
3 Brandon Morrow 0.0031 0.0143 7.1
4 Brett Myers 0.0094 0.0032 5.7
5 Jhoulys Chacín 0.0065 0.0154 5.3
6 Justin Germano 0.0085 0.0411 4.8
7 Wade LeBlanc 0.0109 0.0032 4.7
8 Justin Verlander 0.0117 0.0065 4.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Leake 0.0083 0.0050 6.9
2 Mark Buehrle 0.0000 0.0011 6.2
3 Cliff Lee 0.0000 0.0012 5.8
4 Carlos Marmol 0.0000 0.0241 5.3
5 Chris Carpenter 0.0000 0.0134 5.2
6 Carlos Monasterios 0.0000 0.0201 4.8
7 Ramon E Ramirez 0.0083 0.0000 4.6
8 Justin Masterson 0.0000 0.0137 4.6

Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Dave Bush 0.0175 0.0000 0.0051 9.6 2.3 7.3
2 Clayton Kershaw 0.0029 0.0000 0.0083 4.6 0.2 4.4
3 Kyle Kendrick 0.0137 0.0000 0.0039 7.5 3.2 4.3
4 Justin Verlander 0.0117 0.0000 0.0065 4.7 1.4 3.3
5 Nelson Figueroa 0.0165 0.0000 0.0051 4.4 1.1 3.3
6 Tim Wakefield 0.0137 0.0000 0.0082 3.3 0.1 3.2
7 Mike Pelfrey 0.0117 0.0000 0.0069 4.1 1.0 3.2
8 Brandon Morrow 0.0031 0.0000 0.0143 7.1 4.0 3.1
9 Tim Hudson 0.0052 0.0000 0.0098 4.3 1.6 2.7
10 Cole Hamels 0.0053 0.0000 0.0093 3.5 1.1 2.4

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Brian Tallet 0.0766
0.0307
(16.8)
0.0345
(15.6)
0.0307
(16.8)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.0610
0.0347
(14.1)
0.0342
(14.5)
0.0347
(14.1)
Felipe Paulino 0.0143
0.0452
(12.1)
0.0530
(15.2)
0.0452
(12.1)
Gio Gonzalez 0.0257
0.0456
(15.7)
0.0486
(18.1)
0.0456
(15.7)
Juan Gutierrez 0.0751
0.0287
(11.8)
0.0263
(12.5)
0.0287
(11.8)
Javier Vazquez 0.0653
0.0369
(20.3)
0.0372
(20.3)
0.0369
(20.3)
Jason Vargas 0.0281
0.0452
(12.7)
0.0461
(13.2)
0.0452
(12.7)
Jaime García 0.0181
0.0369
(12.1)
0.0408
(14.6)
0.0369
(12.1)
Chad Gaudin 0.0766
0.0357
(12.5)
0.0357
(12.5)
0.0357
(12.5)
Gavin Floyd 0.0240
0.0448
(15.5)
0.0417
(12.8)
0.0448
(15.5)
James Shields 0.0518
0.0382
(13.5)
0.0399
(12.2)
0.0382
(13.5)
Francisco Liriano 0.0168
0.0391
(16.9)
0.0417
(18.7)
0.0391
(16.9)
Rodrigo Lopez 0.0529
0.0383
(14.0)
0.0360
(16.2)
0.0383
(14.0)
Brett Myers 0.0291
0.0568
(24.6)
0.0525
(20.3)
0.0568
(24.6)
Doug Fister 0.0221
0.0448
(15.4)
0.0455
(15.6)
0.0448
(15.4)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.0363 0.0173 14.9
2 Mark Buehrle 0.0400 0.0227 14.3
3 David Price 0.0428 0.0255 13.8
4 Ian Kennedy 0.0308 0.0463 13.7
5 Zach Duke 0.0286 0.0432 11.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aníbal Sánchez 0.0377 0.0165 16.4
2 Clay Buchholz 0.0416 0.0173 16.0
3 Chad Billingsley 0.0315 0.0141 12.9
4 Barry Enright 0.0343 0.0604 11.4
5 Chris Carpenter 0.0194 0.0294 11.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.0363 0.0173 14.9
2 Mark Buehrle 0.0400 0.0227 14.3
3 David Price 0.0428 0.0255 13.8
4 Ian Kennedy 0.0308 0.0463 13.7
5 Zach Duke 0.0286 0.0432 11.6

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Clay Buchholz 0.0416 0.0304 0.0173 16.0 8.3 7.7
2 Mitch Talbot 0.0413 0.0313 0.0245 10.6 3.8 6.8
3 Clayton Richard 0.0359 0.0284 0.0256 7.5 1.2 6.2
4 Justin Masterson 0.0356 0.0284 0.0242 7.8 2.2 5.6
5 Chris Volstad 0.0432 0.0357 0.0289 9.6 4.1 5.5
6 Brett Cecil 0.0458 0.0382 0.0325 8.5 3.2 5.3
7 Carlos Monasterios 0.0343 0.0521 0.0484 6.3 0.9 5.3
8 Aníbal Sánchez 0.0377 0.0312 0.0165 16.4 11.3 5.2
9 Freddy Garcia 0.0358 0.0464 0.0431 6.0 1.3 4.7
10 Brad Bergesen 0.0293 0.0351 0.0428 11.3 6.8 4.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jaime García 0.0369 0.0369 0.0181 12.1 12.1 0.0
2 Alfredo Simon 0.0741 0.0741 0.0621 2.3 2.3 0.0
3 Jeremy Bonderman 0.0423 0.0423 0.0437 2.1 2.1 0.0
4 Phil Hughes 0.0379 0.0379 0.0475 8.0 8.0 0.0
5 Drew Storen 0.0400 0.0400 0.0194 4.5 4.5 0.0
6 Mat Latos 0.0259 0.0259 0.0316 5.2 5.2 0.0
7 Carlos Monasterios 0.0521 0.0521 0.0484 0.9 0.9 0.0
8 Chris Perez 0.0457 0.0457 0.0241 5.3 5.3 0.0
9 Tyler Clippard 0.0410 0.0410 0.0359 1.4 1.4 0.0
10 Chris Ray 0.0385 0.0385 0.0281 2.1 2.1 0.0

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Jonathan Sánchez 0.2516
0.2931
(38.3)
0.2957
(34.3)
0.2931
(38.3)
Trevor Cahill 0.2357
0.2734
(33.9)
0.2794
(32.7)
0.2734
(33.9)
Roy Oswalt 0.2531
0.2956
(40.2)
0.2963
(34.6)
0.2956
(40.2)
John Lannan 0.3188
0.2718
(26.7)
0.2753
(29.2)
0.2718
(26.7)
Ian Kennedy 0.2556
0.2937
(35.3)
0.2983
(33.1)
0.2937
(35.3)
Kyle Lohse 0.3636
0.2907
(29.0)
0.2943
(30.7)
0.2907
(29.0)
Scott Feldman 0.3273
0.2569
(41.6)
0.2832
(29.5)
0.2569
(41.6)
Brandon Morrow 0.3425
0.2787
(36.6)
0.2829
(38.6)
0.2787
(36.6)
Bronson Arroyo 0.2391
0.2733
(35.0)
0.2884
(41.7)
0.2733
(35.0)
Livan Hernandez 0.2865
0.3097
(25.7)
0.3222
(30.2)
0.3097
(25.7)
Yovani Gallardo 0.3236
0.2837
(27.6)
0.2864
(31.4)
0.2837
(27.6)
Gavin Floyd 0.3251
0.2781
(33.1)
0.2784
(38.8)
0.2781
(33.1)
James Shields 0.3408
0.2823
(47.7)
0.2976
(40.6)
0.2823
(47.7)
Tim Hudson 0.2493
0.2868
(39.7)
0.2917
(37.3)
0.2868
(39.7)
Esmil Rogers 0.3853
0.2934
(28.7)
0.2953
(30.6)
0.2934
(28.7)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Edwin Jackson 0.2753 0.3133 29.3
2 Dan Haren 0.2786 0.3110 26.7
3 Clay Buchholz 0.2922 0.2608 26.3
4 Francisco Liriano 0.2934 0.3314 26.2
5 A.J. Burnett 0.2825 0.3185 25.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Gio Gonzalez 0.3195 0.2742 37.0
2 Félix Hernández 0.2983 0.2626 33.8
3 Carl Pavano 0.3183 0.2812 31.9
4 Justin Masterson 0.2923 0.3245 27.3
5 Jon Garland 0.2995 0.2653 27.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Edwin Jackson 0.2753 0.3133 29.3
2 Dan Haren 0.2786 0.3110 26.7
3 Clay Buchholz 0.2922 0.2608 26.3
4 Francisco Liriano 0.2934 0.3314 26.2
5 A.J. Burnett 0.2825 0.3185 25.3

Most Unique Misses for BABIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Félix Hernández 0.2983 0.2664 0.2626 33.8 9.3 24.5
2 Craig Stammen 0.2830 0.3066 0.3270 25.8 8.3 17.4
3 Cliff Lee 0.3073 0.2815 0.2873 15.3 0.2 15.0
4 Jon Garland 0.2995 0.2759 0.2653 27.0 13.5 13.5
5 Gio Gonzalez 0.3195 0.2971 0.2742 37.0 24.2 12.7
6 Phil Coke 0.2654 0.3023 0.3351 20.0 7.6 12.4
7 Colby Lewis 0.3000 0.2788 0.2752 19.4 7.7 11.6
8 C.J. Wilson 0.3000 0.2796 0.2663 27.0 16.0 11.0
9 Carl Pavano 0.3183 0.2992 0.2812 31.9 21.4 10.5
10 Doug Fister 0.2857 0.2910 0.3021 13.1 4.0 9.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jaime García 0.2919 0.2919 0.2916 4.1 4.1 0.0
2 Chris Carpenter 0.2795 0.2795 0.2785 6.3 6.3 0.0
3 Drew Storen 0.2917 0.2917 0.2961 0.3 0.3 0.0
4 Tony Sipp 0.2813 0.2812 0.2500 9.8 9.8 0.0
5 Chris Ray 0.3120 0.3120 0.2486 16.1 16.1 0.0
6 Blake Hawksworth 0.2850 0.2850 0.3311 16.6 16.6 0.0
7 Jonathan Papelbon 0.2882 0.2882 0.2874 1.8 1.8 0.0
8 Alfredo Simon 0.3040 0.3040 0.2914 4.0 4.0 0.0
9 Fernando Rodney 0.2866 0.2866 0.3128 6.4 6.4 0.0
10 Brian Tallet 0.2896 0.2896 0.2656 10.5 10.5 0.0

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Roy Oswalt 0.1823
0.2956
(41.3)
0.2203
(31.9)
0.2956
(41.3)
Jeremy Guthrie 0.1722
0.2748
(33.8)
0.2029
(26.8)
0.2748
(33.8)
John Lannan 0.2495
0.2718
(26.8)
0.2061
(27.9)
0.2718
(26.8)
Justin Masterson 0.2660
0.2921
(30.3)
0.2277
(30.6)
0.2921
(30.3)
Edwin Jackson 0.2468
0.2753
(31.9)
0.2175
(26.3)
0.2753
(31.9)
Jorge De La Rosa 0.1728
0.2940
(29.3)
0.2229
(25.7)
0.2940
(29.3)
Gavin Floyd 0.2583
0.2781
(35.2)
0.2064
(41.4)
0.2781
(35.2)
James Shields 0.2508
0.2823
(29.2)
0.2163
(31.0)
0.2823
(29.2)
Joe Blanton 0.2545
0.2828
(27.2)
0.2222
(24.6)
0.2828
(27.2)
Brian Burres 0.1604
0.3036
(28.7)
0.2404
(29.0)
0.3036
(28.7)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Leake 0.2210 0.2489 55.4
2 Jonathan Sánchez 0.2931 0.1830 37.6
3 Ian Kennedy 0.2937 0.1866 35.0
4 Scott Feldman 0.2569 0.2450 33.3
5 Rick Porcello 0.2776 0.2586 31.4
6 Sergio Santos 0.2210 0.2770 28.2
7 Matt Cain 0.2719 0.1772 27.6
8 Brad Bergesen 0.2887 0.1893 26.5
9 Clayton Richard 0.2810 0.2475 26.2
10 Brett Cecil 0.3068 0.2071 26.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Blake Hawksworth 0.2014 0.2804 32.3
2 Jason Vargas 0.2276 0.1881 32.1
3 Yovani Gallardo 0.1963 0.2339 30.1
4 Carl Pavano 0.2397 0.2078 29.0
5 Kyle Kendrick 0.2319 0.1954 28.2
6 Bronson Arroyo 0.2142 0.1835 27.1
7 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.2196 0.1916 25.1
8 Félix Hernández 0.2322 0.2077 24.6
9 Charlie Morton 0.2231 0.2873 24.5
10 Cliff Lee 0.2375 0.2087 24.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Leake 0.2210 0.2489 55.4
2 Jonathan Sánchez 0.2931 0.1830 37.6
3 Ian Kennedy 0.2937 0.1866 35.0
4 Scott Feldman 0.2569 0.2450 33.3
5 Rick Porcello 0.2776 0.2586 31.4
6 Sergio Santos 0.2210 0.2770 28.2
7 Matt Cain 0.2719 0.1772 27.6
8 Brad Bergesen 0.2887 0.1893 26.5
9 Clayton Richard 0.2810 0.2475 26.2
10 Brett Cecil 0.3068 0.2071 26.0

Most Unique Misses for Single Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Félix Hernández 0.2322 0.2664 0.2077 24.6 5.3 19.3
2 Yovani Gallardo 0.1963 0.2837 0.2339 30.1 11.4 18.8
3 Cliff Lee 0.2375 0.2815 0.2087 24.4 7.5 16.9
4 Ramon E Ramirez 0.2132 0.2210 0.1520 17.4 1.5 16.0
5 Jason Vargas 0.2276 0.2753 0.1881 32.1 18.9 13.2
6 Ricky Nolasco 0.2112 0.2950 0.2331 14.5 1.4 13.2
7 Aníbal Sánchez 0.2229 0.3024 0.2412 15.3 2.3 13.1
8 Jonathon Niese 0.2203 0.3006 0.2373 13.0 0.4 12.6
9 Jon Garland 0.2263 0.2759 0.2109 13.0 0.9 12.0
10 Phil Coke 0.1975 0.3023 0.2732 21.1 9.7 11.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Aníbal Sánchez 0.3024 0.3024 0.2412 2.3 2.3 0.0
2 Chris Carpenter 0.2795 0.2795 0.2063 8.9 8.9 0.0
3 Mat Latos 0.2776 0.2776 0.2138 0.1 0.1 0.0
4 Jeremy Bonderman 0.2925 0.2925 0.2358 5.4 5.4 0.0
5 Tony Sipp 0.2813 0.2812 0.1736 11.6 11.6 0.0
6 Chris Ray 0.3120 0.3120 0.1676 18.8 18.8 0.0
7 Blake Hawksworth 0.2850 0.2850 0.2804 24.2 24.2 0.0
8 Jonathan Papelbon 0.2882 0.2882 0.2069 5.0 5.0 0.0
9 Alfredo Simon 0.3040 0.3040 0.2384 0.4 0.4 0.0
10 Fernando Rodney 0.2866 0.2866 0.2227 0.0 0.0 0.0

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Trevor Cahill 0.0347
0.0000
(22.2)
0.0749
(30.2)
0.0000
(22.2)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.0987
0.0000
(18.2)
0.0707
(15.1)
0.0000
(18.2)
Paul Maholm 0.0905
0.0000
(23.1)
0.0708
(18.0)
0.0000
(23.1)
John Lackey 0.0874
0.0000
(22.7)
0.0613
(25.8)
0.0000
(22.7)
Brandon Morrow 0.1151
0.0000
(32.7)
0.0585
(36.6)
0.0000
(32.7)
Jorge De La Rosa 0.1049
0.0000
(21.5)
0.0758
(15.8)
0.0000
(21.5)
Scott Baker 0.0970
0.0000
(24.6)
0.0648
(24.6)
0.0000
(24.6)
Tim Hudson 0.0413
0.0000
(20.0)
0.0590
(14.7)
0.0000
(20.0)
Brad Bergesen 0.0912
0.0000
(21.0)
0.0705
(16.7)
0.0000
(21.0)
Brian Burres 0.1194
0.0000
(20.4)
0.0721
(17.7)
0.0000
(20.4)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Leake 0.0656 0.0633 39.4
2 Alex Sanabia 0.0656 0.0511 23.8
3 Scott Atchison 0.0656 0.0492 20.1
4 Kameron Loe 0.0656 0.0468 19.6
5 Kyle Lohse 0.0000 0.1061 18.5
6 Logan Ondrusek 0.0656 0.0517 18.4
7 Ramon E Ramirez 0.0656 0.0637 18.4
8 Yovani Gallardo 0.0000 0.0858 18.3
9 Wilton Lopez 0.0656 0.0591 18.2
10 Alexi Ogando 0.0656 0.0265 17.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Gio Gonzalez 0.0767 0.0457 24.9
2 Randy Wells 0.0502 0.0753 22.6
3 Kyle Davies 0.0583 0.0832 21.8
4 Max Scherzer 0.0764 0.0520 18.1
5 Vin Mazzaro 0.0745 0.0416 16.8
6 Brett Myers 0.0796 0.0600 16.8
7 Kyle Kendrick 0.0616 0.0805 15.9
8 Josh Johnson 0.0453 0.0643 15.4
9 Phil Hughes 0.0763 0.0539 15.1
10 R.A. Dickey 0.0641 0.0418 14.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Leake 0.0656 0.0633 39.4
2 Alex Sanabia 0.0656 0.0511 23.8
3 Scott Atchison 0.0656 0.0492 20.1
4 Kameron Loe 0.0656 0.0468 19.6
5 Kyle Lohse 0.0000 0.1061 18.5
6 Logan Ondrusek 0.0656 0.0517 18.4
7 Ramon E Ramirez 0.0656 0.0637 18.4
8 Yovani Gallardo 0.0000 0.0858 18.3
9 Wilton Lopez 0.0656 0.0591 18.2
10 Alexi Ogando 0.0656 0.0265 17.4

Most Unique Misses for Double Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Josh Johnson 0.0453 0.0000 0.0643 15.4 0.9 14.5
2 Brett Myers 0.0796 0.0000 0.0600 16.8 2.9 13.9
3 Randy Wells 0.0502 0.0000 0.0753 22.6 10.3 12.2
4 Mike Minor 0.0656 0.0656 0.1290 12.1 0.1 12.0
5 Gio Gonzalez 0.0767 0.0000 0.0457 24.9 14.8 10.2
6 Jonathan Sánchez 0.0841 0.0000 0.0665 12.9 2.8 10.1
7 Max Scherzer 0.0764 0.0000 0.0520 18.1 8.8 9.3
8 Kris Medlen 0.0856 0.0000 0.0566 11.9 2.8 9.1
9 Sean O'Sullivan 0.0888 0.0000 0.0612 9.5 0.7 8.9
10 Phil Hughes 0.0763 0.0000 0.0539 15.1 6.7 8.4

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Guillermo Mota 0.0305
0.0000
(5.5)
0.0054
(5.8)
0.0000
(5.5)
Craig Stammen 0.0166
0.0000
(5.7)
0.0054
(6.4)
0.0000
(5.7)
David Price 0.0122
0.0000
(5.0)
0.0027
(8.4)
0.0000
(5.0)
Jair Jurrjens 0.0252
0.0000
(9.4)
0.0103
(7.6)
0.0000
(9.4)
Chad Billingsley 0.0161
0.0000
(7.9)
0.0081
(6.7)
0.0000
(7.9)
Tim Lincecum 0.0141
0.0000
(6.9)
0.0058
(7.7)
0.0000
(6.9)
Charlie Haeger 0.0444
0.0000
(5.7)
0.0074
(5.6)
0.0000
(5.7)
Joel Pineiro 0.0203
0.0000
(8.8)
0.0052
(9.7)
0.0000
(8.8)
Ben Sheets 0.0219
0.0000
(7.9)
0.0084
(7.0)
0.0000
(7.9)
Octavio Dotel 0.0375
0.0000
(8.7)
0.0123
(7.1)
0.0000
(8.7)
Esmil Rogers 0.0216
0.0000
(5.1)
0.0052
(5.6)
0.0000
(5.1)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Leake 0.0067 0.0023 6.5
2 Jeremy Bonderman 0.0000 0.0146 6.2
3 Ricky Romero 0.0000 0.0000 5.7
4 Kenshin Kawakami 0.0000 0.0208 5.6
5 Matt Cain 0.0000 0.0127 5.6
6 Ian Snell 0.0000 0.0303 5.4
7 Tom Gorzelanny 0.0000 0.0149 5.1
8 Dallas Braden 0.0000 0.0000 5.0
9 Greg Smith 0.0000 0.0339 5.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Gio Gonzalez 0.0128 0.0035 7.7
2 Justin Verlander 0.0035 0.0114 7.5
3 Trevor Cahill 0.0101 0.0017 6.4
4 Francisco Liriano 0.0026 0.0095 5.8
5 Jaime García 0.0106 0.0021 5.8
6 Colby Lewis 0.0125 0.0054 5.8
7 Ian Kennedy 0.0110 0.0037 5.7
8 Jason Hammel 0.0112 0.0036 5.6
9 Carl Pavano 0.0118 0.0055 5.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Leake 0.0067 0.0023 6.5
2 Jeremy Bonderman 0.0000 0.0146 6.2
3 Ricky Romero 0.0000 0.0000 5.7
4 Kenshin Kawakami 0.0000 0.0208 5.6
5 Matt Cain 0.0000 0.0127 5.6
6 Ian Snell 0.0000 0.0303 5.4
7 Tom Gorzelanny 0.0000 0.0149 5.1
8 Dallas Braden 0.0000 0.0000 5.0
9 Greg Smith 0.0000 0.0339 5.0

Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Gio Gonzalez 0.0128 0.0000 0.0035 7.7 2.5 5.2
2 Colby Lewis 0.0125 0.0000 0.0054 5.8 0.9 4.9
3 Carl Pavano 0.0118 0.0000 0.0055 5.4 0.8 4.6
4 Brian Matusz 0.0115 0.0000 0.0057 4.2 0.6 3.7
5 Tommy Hanson 0.0110 0.0000 0.0051 4.8 1.1 3.7
6 Ian Kennedy 0.0110 0.0000 0.0037 5.7 2.2 3.5
7 David Price 0.0027 0.0000 0.0122 8.4 5.0 3.4
8 Jason Hammel 0.0112 0.0000 0.0036 5.6 2.2 3.4
9 Francisco Liriano 0.0026 0.0000 0.0095 5.8 2.5 3.3
10 Brad Bergesen 0.0025 0.0000 0.0069 3.5 0.3 3.1

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Clay Buchholz 0.0774
0.1241
(28.2)
0.1272
(33.6)
0.1241
(28.2)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.1843
0.1144
(39.3)
0.1096
(39.5)
0.1144
(39.3)
Zack Greinke 0.1240
0.0907
(37.1)
0.0914
(32.4)
0.0907
(37.1)
Gio Gonzalez 0.0881
0.1389
(37.2)
0.1449
(46.1)
0.1389
(37.2)
Carl Pavano 0.1049
0.1405
(25.9)
0.1344
(24.4)
0.1405
(25.9)
David Price 0.0825
0.1269
(32.2)
0.1241
(33.6)
0.1269
(32.2)
Chad Qualls 0.1993
0.1011
(29.6)
0.1066
(26.8)
0.1011
(29.6)
Javier Vazquez 0.1406
0.1034
(30.2)
0.1070
(24.7)
0.1034
(30.2)
Livan Hernandez 0.1038
0.1502
(35.3)
0.1384
(28.7)
0.1502
(35.3)
Scott Kazmir 0.1510
0.1188
(26.8)
0.1147
(26.6)
0.1188
(26.8)
R.A. Dickey 0.0870
0.1356
(29.6)
0.1231
(23.9)
0.1356
(29.6)
Zach Duke 0.1575
0.1322
(23.7)
0.1239
(26.4)
0.1322
(23.7)
Josh Beckett 0.1542
0.1155
(26.5)
0.1110
(26.5)
0.1155
(26.5)
James Shields 0.1424
0.1133
(32.5)
0.1161
(26.0)
0.1133
(32.5)
Brett Myers 0.0940
0.1342
(31.0)
0.1224
(24.1)
0.1342
(31.0)
Charlie Morton 0.2068
0.1139
(38.2)
0.1294
(30.6)
0.1139
(38.2)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 0.1397 0.0785 28.9
2 Dan Haren 0.0904 0.1107 27.2
3 Trevor Cahill 0.1306 0.0932 23.7
4 Tim Stauffer 0.1329 0.0552 23.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Francisco Liriano 0.1370 0.0955 31.3
2 Mat Latos 0.1270 0.0842 30.0
3 A.J. Burnett 0.1128 0.1423 26.7
4 Brad Bergesen 0.1092 0.1394 24.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 0.1397 0.0785 28.9
2 Dan Haren 0.0904 0.1107 27.2
3 Trevor Cahill 0.1306 0.0932 23.7
4 Tim Stauffer 0.1329 0.0552 23.0

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brad Bergesen 0.1092 0.1368 0.1394 24.5 7.2 17.2
2 Mat Latos 0.1270 0.1086 0.0842 30.0 13.0 17.1
3 Félix Hernández 0.0974 0.0875 0.0799 14.9 0.5 14.4
4 Jon Garland 0.1253 0.1147 0.1027 16.7 4.1 12.6
5 Clayton Richard 0.1276 0.1194 0.1034 18.6 7.7 10.9
6 Luis Atilano 0.1148 0.1469 0.1455 12.8 2.2 10.6
7 Johnny Cueto 0.1245 0.1161 0.1013 16.1 6.1 10.0
8 Rick Porcello 0.1147 0.1333 0.1371 17.5 7.6 9.9
9 John Ely 0.1148 0.1420 0.1465 14.7 5.0 9.7
10 Jonathan Sánchez 0.1225 0.1152 0.0911 23.4 13.8 9.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jaime García 0.1275 0.1275 0.0921 19.7 19.7 0.0
2 Jeremy Bonderman 0.1390 0.1390 0.1499 13.6 13.6 0.0
3 Alfredo Simon 0.2048 0.2048 0.1351 13.9 13.9 0.0
4 Phil Hughes 0.1204 0.1204 0.1137 0.3 0.3 0.0
5 Carlos Monasterios 0.1538 0.1538 0.1203 10.6 10.6 0.0
6 Blake Hawksworth 0.1206 0.1206 0.1369 9.6 9.6 0.0
7 Chris Ray 0.1337 0.1337 0.0983 6.6 6.6 0.0
8 Phil Coke 0.1368 0.1368 0.1039 7.2 7.2 0.0
9 Evan Meek 0.1211 0.1211 0.0772 11.9 11.9 0.0
10 Matt Capps 0.1091 0.1091 0.0885 4.1 4.1 0.0

Earned Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Trevor Cahill 0.0830
0.1208
(25.0)
0.1159
(23.6)
0.1208
(25.0)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 0.1608
0.1045
(31.7)
0.1002
(32.3)
0.1045
(31.7)
Zack Greinke 0.1110
0.0832
(30.9)
0.0825
(28.8)
0.0832
(30.9)
Gio Gonzalez 0.0846
0.1267
(30.8)
0.1327
(38.5)
0.1267
(30.8)
Clay Buchholz 0.0633
0.1128
(31.0)
0.1193
(37.8)
0.1128
(31.0)
David Price 0.0732
0.1161
(31.9)
0.1111
(30.3)
0.1161
(31.9)
Javier Vazquez 0.1362
0.0943
(32.7)
0.1005
(26.3)
0.0943
(32.7)
Livan Hernandez 0.0960
0.1367
(31.2)
0.1330
(30.6)
0.1367
(31.2)
Jaime García 0.0705
0.1174
(28.5)
0.1119
(26.9)
0.1174
(28.5)
Scott Kazmir 0.1452
0.1086
(29.0)
0.1070
(27.9)
0.1086
(29.0)
R.A. Dickey 0.0771
0.1232
(28.7)
0.1169
(26.4)
0.1232
(28.7)
Josh Beckett 0.1421
0.1051
(24.8)
0.1044
(23.3)
0.1051
(24.8)
James Shields 0.1301
0.1039
(28.9)
0.1061
(24.1)
0.1039
(28.9)
Brett Myers 0.0833
0.1226
(31.2)
0.1176
(29.5)
0.1226
(31.2)
Charlie Morton 0.1754
0.1042
(29.5)
0.1216
(21.6)
0.1042
(29.5)

Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 0.1278 0.0710 27.2
2 Kevin Correia 0.1012 0.1357 25.9
3 Dan Haren 0.0829 0.1026 25.5
4 Jonny Venters 0.1275 0.0514 24.5
5 Chad Qualls 0.0939 0.1708 23.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jonathan Sánchez 0.1165 0.0813 26.3
2 Mat Latos 0.1164 0.0802 25.0
3 Nick Blackburn 0.1076 0.1402 24.5
4 A.J. Burnett 0.1052 0.1315 24.1
5 Josh Johnson 0.0963 0.0632 22.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 0.1278 0.0710 27.2
2 Kevin Correia 0.1012 0.1357 25.9
3 Dan Haren 0.0829 0.1026 25.5
4 Jonny Venters 0.1275 0.0514 24.5
5 Chad Qualls 0.0939 0.1708 23.3

Most Unique Misses for Earned Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brad Bergesen 0.0998 0.1246 0.1260 21.6 5.4 16.2
2 Mat Latos 0.1164 0.1003 0.0802 25.0 10.6 14.4
3 Tom Gorzelanny 0.1277 0.1092 0.1026 13.5 0.4 13.1
4 Randy Wells 0.0906 0.1086 0.1091 18.0 5.4 12.5
5 Jonathan Sánchez 0.1165 0.1050 0.0813 26.3 14.4 11.9
6 Dave Bush 0.1294 0.1184 0.1127 10.9 0.1 10.8
7 Johnny Cueto 0.1149 0.1058 0.0962 12.5 2.9 9.5
8 Clayton Richard 0.1171 0.1097 0.0976 14.4 5.4 9.1
9 John Ely 0.1058 0.1293 0.1419 16.7 7.9 8.8
10 Luis Atilano 0.1058 0.1348 0.1273 9.3 0.6 8.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jaime García 0.1174 0.1174 0.0705 28.5 28.5 0.0
2 Jeremy Bonderman 0.1266 0.1266 0.1393 14.0 14.0 0.0
3 Alfredo Simon 0.1867 0.1867 0.1216 13.1 13.1 0.0
4 Phil Hughes 0.1106 0.1106 0.1123 5.6 5.6 0.0
5 Carlos Monasterios 0.1414 0.1414 0.1078 11.1 11.1 0.0
6 Blake Hawksworth 0.1099 0.1099 0.1222 7.5 7.5 0.0
7 Chris Ray 0.1176 0.1176 0.0983 3.1 3.1 0.0
8 Phil Coke 0.1270 0.1270 0.0968 6.8 6.8 0.0
9 Matt Capps 0.1018 0.1018 0.0656 9.3 9.3 0.0
10 Evan Meek 0.1107 0.1107 0.0586 15.0 15.0 0.0

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Trevor Cahill 0.6000
0.3000
(237.1)
0.2143
(257.5)
0.3000
(237.1)
Clay Buchholz 0.6071
0.3548
(181.4)
0.2188
(235.7)
0.3548
(181.4)
Gio Gonzalez 0.4545
0.2308
(192.8)
0.1765
(188.3)
0.2308
(192.8)
Carl Pavano 0.5312
0.3158
(197.8)
0.2750
(180.7)
0.3158
(197.8)
David Price 0.5938
0.3103
(246.4)
0.2222
(271.0)
0.3103
(246.4)
Jaime García 0.4643
0.2500
(150.9)
0.1429
(183.9)
0.2500
(150.9)
Clayton Richard 0.4242
0.2500
(152.5)
0.1707
(169.4)
0.2500
(152.5)
Phil Hughes 0.5806
0.1750
(298.2)
0.1316
(286.3)
0.1750
(298.2)
R.A. Dickey 0.4074
0.1351
(196.1)
0.0968
(181.0)
0.1351
(196.1)
Ervin Santana 0.5152
0.3571
(153.4)
0.2647
(184.7)
0.3571
(153.4)
Brett Cecil 0.5357
0.2414
(215.7)
0.2059
(198.2)
0.2414
(215.7)
Jon Lester 0.5938
0.3939
(174.5)
0.3250
(182.5)
0.3939
(174.5)
C.J. Wilson 0.4545
0.0758
(324.4)
0.0784
(271.4)
0.0758
(324.4)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Myers 0.1818 0.4242 229.5
2 Brandon Morrow 0.1000 0.3846 180.8
3 Tim Wakefield 0.4231 0.1250 180.1
4 Kevin Millwood 0.3333 0.1290 169.6
5 Bruce Chen 0.1111 0.3636 155.2
6 Dan Haren 0.5000 0.3429 153.4
7 Zack Greinke 0.4706 0.3030 151.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.2927 0.5758 202.3
2 Roy Halladay 0.3784 0.6364 199.8
3 Colby Lewis 0.0833 0.3750 198.2
4 Adam Wainwright 0.3590 0.6061 173.1
5 Francisco Liriano 0.1842 0.4516 169.7
6 Tim Hudson 0.2609 0.5000 167.7
7 CC Sabathia 0.3947 0.6176 161.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Myers 0.1818 0.4242 229.5
2 Brandon Morrow 0.1000 0.3846 180.8
3 Tim Wakefield 0.4231 0.1250 180.1
4 Kevin Millwood 0.3333 0.1290 169.6
5 Bruce Chen 0.1111 0.3636 155.2
6 Dan Haren 0.5000 0.3429 153.4
7 Zack Greinke 0.4706 0.3030 151.4

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Colby Lewis 0.0833 0.4074 0.3750 198.2 25.0 173.2
2 Roy Halladay 0.3784 0.5938 0.6364 199.8 45.1 154.6
3 Ryan Dempster 0.2326 0.4000 0.4412 139.4 40.4 99.0
4 Tim Hudson 0.2609 0.4211 0.5000 167.7 75.2 92.5
5 Justin Verlander 0.3415 0.5000 0.5455 136.1 44.7 91.5
6 Jonathon Niese 0.1379 0.3077 0.3000 81.0 3.8 77.3
7 Tim Lincecum 0.3250 0.4706 0.4848 92.4 15.3 77.1
8 Kevin Correia 0.1818 0.3667 0.3571 76.0 4.3 71.7
9 Carlos Monasterios 0.2522 0.1333 0.0938 85.9 14.7 71.2
10 Wade Davis 0.1379 0.2941 0.4138 158.1 88.4 69.7

Loss Rate

Everybody Missed for Loss Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Zack Greinke 0.4242
0.2647
(157.4)
0.2093
(138.4)
0.2647
(157.4)
Joe Saunders 0.5152
0.3548
(151.4)
0.1842
(234.6)
0.3548
(151.4)
Dallas Braden 0.4667
0.3214
(122.6)
0.2222
(140.6)
0.3214
(122.6)
Scott Kazmir 0.5357
0.2903
(175.4)
0.2222
(169.9)
0.2903
(175.4)
Charlie Morton 0.7059
0.3667
(134.1)
0.2941
(132.7)
0.3667
(134.1)
James Shields 0.4412
0.2941
(142.8)
0.2308
(131.3)
0.2941
(142.8)
Justin Masterson 0.3824
0.1860
(166.9)
0.1628
(124.4)
0.1860
(166.9)

Individual Misses for Loss Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.0303 0.2424 190.3
2 Félix Hernández 0.2059 0.3529 159.0
3 Max Scherzer 0.1724 0.3548 155.4
4 Hiroki Kuroda 0.2400 0.4194 154.8
5 Clayton Kershaw 0.1471 0.3125 150.3
6 Andy Sonnanstine 0.4545 0.0244 148.5
7 Dan Haren 0.2059 0.3429 147.9
8 Craig Stammen 0.3793 0.1143 142.3
9 Johnny Cueto 0.4194 0.2258 141.8
10 Brian Duensing 0.3125 0.0566 130.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rodrigo Lopez 0.1250 0.4848 258.2
2 Colby Lewis 0.0833 0.4062 218.2
3 Doug Fister 0.1667 0.5000 193.6
4 Mitch Talbot 0.1250 0.4643 191.3
5 David Huff 0.2162 0.7333 167.1
6 Kevin Millwood 0.2632 0.5161 158.8
7 Paul Maholm 0.2368 0.4688 140.7
8 Wade LeBlanc 0.1724 0.4615 140.5
9 Randy Wells 0.2105 0.4375 137.1
10 Brian Matusz 0.1333 0.3750 134.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.0303 0.2424 190.3
2 Félix Hernández 0.2059 0.3529 159.0
3 Max Scherzer 0.1724 0.3548 155.4
4 Hiroki Kuroda 0.2400 0.4194 154.8
5 Clayton Kershaw 0.1471 0.3125 150.3
6 Andy Sonnanstine 0.4545 0.0244 148.5
7 Dan Haren 0.2059 0.3429 147.9
8 Craig Stammen 0.3793 0.1143 142.3
9 Johnny Cueto 0.4194 0.2258 141.8
10 Brian Duensing 0.3125 0.0566 130.6

Most Unique Misses for Loss Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mitch Talbot 0.1250 0.4545 0.4643 191.3 15.0 176.3
2 Rodrigo Lopez 0.1250 0.3913 0.4848 258.2 92.1 166.2
3 Colby Lewis 0.0833 0.3333 0.4062 218.2 71.5 146.7
4 Brian Matusz 0.1333 0.3929 0.3750 134.7 4.6 130.1
5 Jhoulys Chacín 0.1176 0.3871 0.3929 122.9 10.2 112.7
6 Brad Bergesen 0.1714 0.3846 0.4000 122.5 20.3 102.2
7 Jonathon Niese 0.1379 0.3462 0.3333 100.9 0.8 100.1
8 David Pauley 0.1176 0.4483 0.4737 113.7 14.5 99.2
9 Ross Ohlendorf 0.1905 0.4615 0.5238 127.7 35.2 92.6
10 Joe Saunders 0.1842 0.3548 0.5152 234.6 151.4 83.1

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Brian Wilson 0.6857
0.0000
(204.9)
0.4400
(82.8)
0.0000
(204.9)
Heath Bell 0.7015
0.0000
(193.7)
0.2400
(138.3)
0.0000
(193.7)
Kevin Gregg 0.5873
0.0000
(142.4)
0.3077
(76.2)
0.0000
(142.4)
Carlos Marmol 0.4935
0.0000
(155.0)
0.1071
(135.1)
0.0000
(155.0)
Billy Wagner 0.5211
0.0000
(132.5)
0.2800
(70.1)
0.0000
(132.5)
David Aardsma 0.5849
0.0000
(112.7)
0.2653
(68.7)
0.0000
(112.7)
John Axford 0.4800
0.0000
(107.9)
0.0714
(102.1)
0.0000
(107.9)
Rafael Soriano 0.7031
0.0000
(160.3)
0.2292
(117.2)
0.0000
(160.3)
Matt Capps 0.5676
0.0000
(165.0)
0.3256
(80.1)
0.0000
(165.0)
Juan Carlos Oviedo 0.4412
0.0000
(111.9)
0.1915
(73.0)
0.0000
(111.9)
Neftalí Feliz 0.5714
0.0000
(146.5)
0.0952
(133.6)
0.0000
(146.5)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joakim Soria 0.0000 0.6515 168.7
2 Francisco Cordero 0.0000 0.5333 160.1
3 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0000 0.5692 155.7
4 Mariano Rivera 0.0000 0.5410 118.3
5 Ryan Franklin 0.0000 0.4576 113.8
6 Bobby Jenks 0.0000 0.4909 107.2
7 Jose Valverde 0.0000 0.4333 105.3
8 Francisco Rodríguez 0.0000 0.4717 105.0
9 Brad Lidge 0.0000 0.5400 99.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 C.J. Wilson 0.2157 0.0000 165.9
2 Octavio Dotel 0.0426 0.3235 84.1
3 Chris Perez 0.0698 0.3651 82.1
4 Brett Myers 0.1000 0.0000 74.4
5 Hisanori Takahashi 0.0278 0.1509 74.1
6 Alfredo Simon 0.0476 0.3469 71.0
7 Brandon Morrow 0.1316 0.0000 69.8
8 Jon Rauch 0.0926 0.3559 69.6
9 Matt Lindstrom 0.1364 0.3966 68.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joakim Soria 0.0000 0.6515 168.7
2 Francisco Cordero 0.0000 0.5333 160.1
3 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0000 0.5692 155.7
4 Mariano Rivera 0.0000 0.5410 118.3
5 Ryan Franklin 0.0000 0.4576 113.8
6 Bobby Jenks 0.0000 0.4909 107.2
7 Jose Valverde 0.0000 0.4333 105.3
8 Francisco Rodríguez 0.0000 0.4717 105.0
9 Brad Lidge 0.0000 0.5400 99.1

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 C.J. Wilson 0.2157 0.0000 0.0000 165.9 22.7 143.1
2 Brandon Morrow 0.1316 0.0000 0.0000 69.8 16.8 53.0
3 Brett Myers 0.1000 0.0000 0.0000 74.4 25.0 49.3
4 Ryan Dempster 0.0930 0.0000 0.0000 66.5 24.5 42.0
5 George Sherrill 0.2642 0.0000 0.0000 43.8 4.8 39.0
6 Takashi Saito 0.1951 0.0000 0.0179 34.6 2.0 32.7
7 Colby Lewis 0.0833 0.0000 0.0000 53.0 22.6 30.4
8 J.J. Putz 0.2258 0.0000 0.0500 34.0 5.1 28.9
9 Frank Francisco 0.1951 0.0000 0.0357 30.7 2.0 28.7
10 Brad Ziegler 0.1304 0.0000 0.0000 28.2 6.9 21.4

Hold Rate

Everybody Missed for Hold Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Jonny Venters 0.3038
0.0000
(89.8)
0.0492
(101.5)
0.0000
(89.8)
Matt Belisle 0.2763
0.0000
(83.6)
0.0909
(80.6)
0.0000
(83.6)
Clay Hensley 0.3235
0.0000
(84.8)
0.1176
(74.1)
0.0000
(84.8)
Daniel Bard 0.4384
0.0000
(115.4)
0.1875
(84.4)
0.0000
(115.4)
Kameron Loe 0.4151
0.0492
(76.5)
0.1250
(78.1)
0.0492
(76.5)
Gil Meche 0.3000
0.0000
(71.0)
0.0606
(77.2)
0.0000
(71.0)
Luke Gregerson 0.5000
0.0000
(134.5)
0.2791
(76.1)
0.0000
(134.5)
Mike Adams 0.5286
0.0000
(129.0)
0.2424
(86.2)
0.0000
(129.0)
Tyler Clippard 0.2949
0.0000
(93.6)
0.1000
(87.0)
0.0000
(93.6)
Fernando Rodney 0.2917
0.0000
(75.3)
0.0833
(75.1)
0.0000
(75.3)

Individual Misses for Hold Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joba Chamberlain 0.0000 0.3425 90.0
2 Kevin Jepsen 0.0000 0.3971 88.5
3 Scott Downs 0.0000 0.3881 82.1
4 Matt Guerrier 0.0000 0.3243 79.2
5 Joaquín Benoit 0.0000 0.3968 75.9
6 Hung-Chih Kuo 0.0000 0.3750 75.1
7 Arthur Rhodes 0.0000 0.3768 71.5
8 Kyle McClellan 0.0000 0.2794 71.3
9 Matt Thornton 0.0000 0.3443 71.0
10 Ryan Perry 0.0000 0.3167 70.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Phil Hughes 0.2105 0.0000 127.9
2 C.J. Wilson 0.1765 0.0000 120.0
3 Carlos Marmol 0.2857 0.0000 83.1
4 Ian Kennedy 0.1304 0.0000 77.0
5 Ramon Pena 0.2264 0.0192 76.3
6 Jaime García 0.1429 0.0000 74.7
7 Andrew Cashner 0.0492 0.3019 71.4
8 Sean Marshall 0.0976 0.2750 65.3
9 Takashi Saito 0.0488 0.3036 64.1
10 Mitch Talbot 0.1250 0.0000 62.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Joba Chamberlain 0.0000 0.3425 90.0
2 Kevin Jepsen 0.0000 0.3971 88.5
3 Scott Downs 0.0000 0.3881 82.1
4 Matt Guerrier 0.0000 0.3243 79.2
5 Joaquín Benoit 0.0000 0.3968 75.9
6 Hung-Chih Kuo 0.0000 0.3750 75.1
7 Arthur Rhodes 0.0000 0.3768 71.5
8 Kyle McClellan 0.0000 0.2794 71.3
9 Matt Thornton 0.0000 0.3443 71.0
10 Ryan Perry 0.0000 0.3167 70.3

Most Unique Misses for Hold Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Phil Hughes 0.2105 0.0000 0.0000 127.9 34.5 93.4
2 C.J. Wilson 0.1765 0.0000 0.0000 120.0 40.2 79.8
3 Carlos Marmol 0.2857 0.0000 0.0000 83.1 15.7 67.4
4 Ramon Pena 0.2264 0.0000 0.0192 76.3 12.4 63.9
5 Scot Shields 0.3214 0.0000 0.0233 57.3 5.2 52.1
6 Jaime García 0.1429 0.0000 0.0000 74.7 32.8 41.9
7 Neftalí Feliz 0.2381 0.0000 0.0429 43.0 1.2 41.8
8 Ian Kennedy 0.1304 0.0000 0.0000 77.0 38.3 38.7
9 Casey Janssen 0.1852 0.0000 0.0357 34.0 3.4 30.6
10 Octavio Dotel 0.2128 0.0000 0.0588 33.1 3.2 29.9

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Trevor Cahill 2.9746
4.8734
(1256.8)
4.5116
(1148.6)
4.8734
(1256.8)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 6.7500
4.0527
(1525.4)
3.8393
(1520.2)
4.0527
(1525.4)
Zack Greinke 4.1727
3.1062
(1250.1)
3.0628
(1084.4)
3.1062
(1250.1)
Gio Gonzalez 3.2292
5.2143
(1439.3)
5.3818
(1772.2)
5.2143
(1439.3)
Clay Buchholz 2.3321
4.4628
(1306.1)
4.7203
(1648.2)
4.4628
(1306.1)
David Price 2.7173
4.6339
(1397.3)
4.3200
(1319.7)
4.6339
(1397.3)
Chad Qualls 7.3220
3.5634
(1138.7)
3.7370
(1027.1)
3.5634
(1138.7)
Javier Vazquez 5.3199
3.5255
(1426.2)
3.7420
(1125.6)
3.5255
(1426.2)
Livan Hernandez 3.6567
5.6654
(1536.6)
5.2878
(1398.7)
5.6654
(1536.6)
Jaime García 2.7000
4.7488
(1219.8)
4.3548
(1101.4)
4.7487
(1219.7)
Scott Kazmir 5.9400
4.2579
(1347.5)
4.1557
(1264.7)
4.2579
(1347.5)
R.A. Dickey 2.8394
5.0400
(1359.6)
4.6721
(1256.8)
5.0400
(1359.6)
Josh Beckett 5.7807
3.9629
(1218.3)
3.9344
(1105.7)
3.9629
(1218.3)
James Shields 5.1787
3.9367
(1380.6)
3.9990
(1123.6)
3.9367
(1380.6)
Brett Myers 3.1386
4.8324
(1310.5)
4.5547
(1259.9)
4.8324
(1310.5)
Charlie Morton 7.5690
4.1159
(1431.3)
4.7897
(1088.5)
4.1159
(1431.3)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 5.1830 2.6173 1215.5
2 Dan Haren 3.0439 3.9064 1149.3
3 Kevin Correia 3.9320 5.4000 1129.2
4 Jonny Venters 5.4187 1.9518 1110.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jonathan Sánchez 4.5803 3.0724 1167.5
2 Mat Latos 4.4796 2.9242 1111.1
3 Roberto Hernandez 5.0261 3.7655 1047.7
4 A.J. Burnett 4.0820 5.2554 1030.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Duensing 5.1830 2.6173 1215.5
2 Dan Haren 3.0439 3.9064 1149.3
3 Kevin Correia 3.9320 5.4000 1129.2
4 Jonny Venters 5.4187 1.9518 1110.6

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brad Bergesen 3.8283 4.9865 4.9765 908.8 211.6 697.2
2 Mat Latos 4.4796 3.9193 2.9242 1111.1 524.7 586.4
3 Jonathan Sánchez 4.5803 4.1538 3.0724 1167.5 639.6 527.9
4 Tom Gorzelanny 5.0780 4.3177 4.0929 552.7 41.6 511.1
5 Johnny Cueto 4.5000 4.0849 3.6355 619.6 121.4 498.3
6 Randy Wells 3.4493 4.2602 4.2607 743.1 248.0 495.1
7 Félix Hernández 3.2425 3.0172 2.2710 902.3 452.9 449.4
8 Jon Garland 4.3355 4.0545 3.4650 670.0 247.5 422.5
9 Clayton Richard 4.5925 4.3354 3.7488 666.2 252.2 414.0
10 Rick Porcello 4.1017 4.8874 4.9242 624.8 231.3 393.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jake Westbrook 4.7032 4.7032 4.2188 164.0 164.0 0.0
2 Freddy Garcia 5.3353 5.3353 4.6433 267.3 267.2 0.0
3 C.J. Wilson 3.9746 3.9746 3.3529 278.8 278.7 0.0
4 Aníbal Sánchez 4.6907 4.6907 3.5538 709.1 709.0 0.0
5 Chris Carpenter 3.4714 3.4714 3.2170 38.1 38.1 0.0
6 Bruce Chen 5.7042 5.7042 4.1686 755.0 755.0 0.0
7 Mat Latos 3.9194 3.9193 2.9242 524.7 524.7 0.0
8 Drew Storen 3.7800 3.7800 3.5783 21.4 21.3 0.0
9 Kyle Farnsworth 4.6184 4.6184 3.3402 262.9 262.9 0.0
10 Tony Sipp 4.1831 4.1831 4.1429 67.4 67.4 0.0

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel ZiPS
Trevor Cahill 1.1085
1.4813
(260.4)
1.4203
(237.4)
1.4813
(260.4)
Ryan Rowland-Smith 1.6921
1.3083
(216.3)
1.3194
(194.4)
1.3083
(216.3)
Roy Oswalt 1.0252
1.2865
(184.9)
1.2640
(192.7)
1.2865
(184.9)
Gio Gonzalez 1.3106
1.5714
(187.6)
1.5731
(216.1)
1.5714
(187.6)
Ian Kennedy 1.2010
1.4815
(194.5)
1.4966
(232.4)
1.4815
(194.5)
Kyle Lohse 1.7826
1.3987
(182.9)
1.3470
(191.5)
1.3987
(182.9)
Rich Harden 1.6630
1.2540
(193.2)
1.2664
(174.2)
1.2540
(193.2)
Livan Hernandez 1.3228
1.6049
(216.6)
1.5588
(203.7)
1.6049
(216.6)
R.A. Dickey 1.1874
1.5440
(225.5)
1.5027
(218.7)
1.5440
(225.5)
Jered Weaver 1.0743
1.3204
(186.2)
1.2968
(193.6)
1.3204
(186.2)
Zach Duke 1.6541
1.4021
(213.4)
1.4118
(183.2)
1.4021
(213.4)
James Shields 1.4607
1.2106
(261.1)
1.2650
(183.6)
1.2106
(261.1)
Josh Beckett 1.5352
1.1903
(222.3)
1.2186
(187.7)
1.1903
(222.3)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dan Haren 1.0805 1.2723 230.8
2 Ricky Romero 1.5864 1.2905 225.5
3 Paul Maholm 1.3539 1.5647 211.0
4 Javier Vazquez 1.1561 1.3983 193.0
5 Scott Feldman 1.3533 1.5991 183.4
6 Scott Kazmir 1.3581 1.5800 178.9
7 Aaron Harang 1.2719 1.5851 178.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Félix Hernández 1.2756 1.0574 209.8
2 Cliff Lee 1.2526 1.0031 203.0
3 Mat Latos 1.3575 1.0830 198.8
4 Adam Wainwright 1.2652 1.0507 187.4
5 Roberto Hernandez 1.5264 1.3074 185.1
6 Colby Lewis 1.4122 1.1891 181.1
7 Dallas Braden 1.3968 1.1574 180.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dan Haren 1.0805 1.2723 230.8
2 Ricky Romero 1.5864 1.2905 225.5
3 Paul Maholm 1.3539 1.5647 211.0
4 Javier Vazquez 1.1561 1.3983 193.0
5 Scott Feldman 1.3533 1.5991 183.4
6 Scott Kazmir 1.3581 1.5800 178.9
7 Aaron Harang 1.2719 1.5851 178.2

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Félix Hernández 1.2756 1.1734 1.0574 209.8 75.7 134.1
2 Colby Lewis 1.4122 1.3044 1.1891 181.1 63.3 117.8
3 Francisco Liriano 1.4748 1.3827 1.2626 164.1 64.3 99.8
4 Cliff Lee 1.2526 1.1806 1.0031 203.0 115.6 87.4
5 Roy Halladay 1.1674 1.1143 1.0412 116.8 32.5 84.3
6 Clayton Kershaw 1.3251 1.2623 1.1794 116.2 36.0 80.2
7 Tommy Hanson 1.2706 1.2128 1.1743 74.1 1.6 72.4
8 Mark Buehrle 1.3020 1.4126 1.4025 97.9 27.1 70.8
9 Jeanmar Gómez 1.3602 1.7175 1.6474 78.4 7.9 70.5
10 Dontrelle Willis 1.6010 1.8506 1.9492 112.8 43.9 68.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jake Westbrook 1.4710 1.4710 1.3372 80.4 80.4 0.0
2 C.J. Wilson 1.4010 1.4010 1.2451 98.2 98.2 0.0
3 Freddy Garcia 1.4731 1.4730 1.3758 38.2 38.2 0.0
4 Aníbal Sánchez 1.5381 1.5381 1.3436 129.7 129.7 0.0
5 Jeremy Bonderman 1.4944 1.4944 1.4444 7.3 7.3 0.0
6 Mat Latos 1.3427 1.3427 1.0830 164.1 164.1 0.0
7 Phil Hughes 1.3452 1.3452 1.2476 41.8 41.8 0.0
8 Bruce Chen 1.5423 1.5422 1.3753 77.0 77.0 0.0
9 Tony Sipp 1.3944 1.3944 1.3810 7.2 7.2 0.0
10 Kyle Farnsworth 1.4605 1.4605 1.1443 73.7 73.7 0.0