2013 Fantasy Projection Evaluation

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2013, excluding batters with fewer than 300 PA and pitchers with fewer than 200 BF. Limited to 5x5 categories, with playing time (PA/BF) split out from rates.

Summary

Batting

System PA HR SB R RBI AVG
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF SO W SV ERA WHIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Everybody Missed for Plate Appearances (PA)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Ed Lucas 384
100
(284.0)
100
(284.0)
100
(284.0)
100
(284.0)
Yasiel Puig 432
100
(332.0)
100
(332.0)
100
(332.0)
100
(332.0)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ángel Pagán 647 305 341.9
2 Matt Carpenter 412 717 305.1
3 Ben Revere 640 336 303.8
4 Josh Rutledge 614 314 299.9
5 Jed Lowrie 370 662 292.2
6 Marlon Byrd 296 579 283.4
7 Eric Young Jr. 318 598 280.4
8 Aaron Hill 633 362 271.0
9 Lyle Overbay 217 486 269.1
10 Dustin Ackley 693 427 265.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jedd Gyorko 100 525 425.0
2 Nolan Arenado 100 514 414.0
3 Victor Martinez 255 668 413.0
4 Manny Machado 315 710 395.0
5 Andrelton Simmons 300 658 358.0
6 Matt Carpenter 374 717 343.0
7 Brett Gardner 276 609 333.0
8 Jean Segura 293 623 330.0
9 Juan Lagares 100 421 321.0
10 Matt Dominguez 269 589 320.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Dozier 205 623 417.9
2 Matt Carpenter 328 717 389.2
3 Lyle Overbay 104 486 382.2
4 Ángel Pagán 684 305 378.8
5 JB Shuck 100 478 378.0
6 Marlon Byrd 219 579 359.8
7 Eric Young Jr. 258 598 339.8
8 Daniel Nava 203 536 333.2
9 Brandon Barnes 116 445 328.6
10 Juan Lagares 100 421 321.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Josh Rutledge 670 314 356.0
2 Brad Miller 666 335 331.0
3 Jed Lowrie 332 662 330.0
4 Ángel Pagán 610 305 305.0
5 Ben Revere 639 336 303.0
6 Aaron Hicks 603 313 290.0
7 Jurickson Profar 610 324 286.0
8 Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 584 307 277.0
9 David Lough 606 335 271.0
10 Melky Cabrera 641 372 269.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jedd Gyorko 100 487 525 425.0 37.8 387.2
2 Nolan Arenado 100 467 514 414.0 47.1 366.9
3 Starling Marte 298 583 566 268.0 17.2 250.8
4 Nick Franklin 100 349 412 312.0 62.7 249.3
5 Andrelton Simmons 300 545 658 358.0 112.5 245.5
6 Manny Machado 315 560 710 395.0 150.5 244.5
7 Juan Lagares 100 338 421 321.0 82.5 238.5
8 Adeiny Hechavarría 277 511 578 301.0 66.7 234.3
9 Anthony Rizzo 411 633 690 279.0 56.6 222.4
10 Victor Martinez 255 470 668 413.0 197.9 215.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Juan Lagares 100 338 421 321.0 82.5 238.5
2 Brandon Barnes 116 346 445 328.6 99.3 229.3
3 David Lough 100 353 335 235.0 18.0 217.0
4 DJ LeMahieu 175 386 434 259.4 47.7 211.7
5 Pete Kozma 173 384 448 274.8 63.9 210.9
6 JB Shuck 100 310 478 378.0 168.0 210.0
7 Conor Gillaspie 155 360 452 297.3 91.6 205.7
8 Brian Dozier 205 410 623 417.9 212.9 204.9
9 Oswaldo Arcia 100 304 378 278.0 73.5 204.5
10 Jose Iglesias 104 305 382 278.2 77.1 201.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brad Miller 666 383 335 331.0 48.0 283.0
2 David Lough 606 353 335 271.0 18.0 253.0
3 Luis Valbuena 548 381 391 157.0 10.4 146.6
4 Matt Adams 486 293 319 167.0 26.0 141.0
5 Jurickson Profar 610 470 324 286.0 145.8 140.2
6 Wil Myers 616 478 373 243.0 104.6 138.4
7 Alexi Amarista 544 406 396 148.0 10.1 137.9
8 Jose Tabata 580 445 341 239.0 104.2 134.8
9 Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 584 451 307 277.0 143.8 133.2
10 Didi Gregorius 550 383 404 146.0 21.4 124.6

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jimmy Rollins 0.0117
0.0343
(15.1)
0.0361
(15.9)
0.0322
(13.6)
0.0364
(16.4)
Raul Ibanez 0.0890
0.0418
(23.4)
0.0448
(22.1)
0.0403
(24.1)
0.0432
(22.7)
Chris Davis 0.1352
0.0758
(40.0)
0.0640
(48.2)
0.0792
(37.7)
0.0723
(42.4)
Marlon Byrd 0.0606
0.0254
(20.4)
0.0249
(20.9)
0.0263
(19.9)
0.0245
(20.9)
Paul Konerko 0.0302
0.0607
(15.9)
0.0648
(17.8)
0.0590
(14.9)
0.0625
(16.8)
Carlos González 0.0942
0.0648
(12.8)
0.0593
(15.4)
0.0642
(13.1)
0.0655
(12.5)
Jason Castro 0.0583
0.0248
(16.4)
0.0282
(15.0)
0.0268
(15.5)
0.0228
(17.4)
Miguel Cabrera 0.0950
0.0716
(15.3)
0.0713
(15.8)
0.0712
(15.5)
0.0720
(15.0)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brandon Moss 0.0624 0.0971 17.5
2 Anthony Rizzo 0.0697 0.0478 15.1
3 Brian Dozier 0.0167 0.0404 14.8
4 Coco Crisp 0.0230 0.0480 14.6
5 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1106 0.0839 13.5
6 Dustin Pedroia 0.0335 0.0157 12.9
7 Allen Craig 0.0543 0.0315 12.8
8 Ben Zobrist 0.0408 0.0227 12.6
9 Prince Fielder 0.0665 0.0489 12.5
10 Will Venable 0.0361 0.0601 12.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Pedro Álvarez 0.0612 0.0957 21.5
2 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0487 0.0778 21.0
3 Domonic Brown 0.0336 0.0670 18.3
4 Chris Carter 0.0667 0.0970 18.0
5 Josh Hamilton 0.0752 0.0492 16.2
6 Juan Francisco 0.0474 0.0849 14.6
7 Matt Adams 0.0339 0.0787 14.4
8 Jayson Werth 0.0421 0.0683 14.2
9 Evan Gattis 0.0394 0.0761 14.2
10 Nate Schierholtz 0.0290 0.0561 13.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brandon Moss 0.0640 0.0971 16.7
2 Pedro Álvarez 0.0703 0.0957 15.7
3 Anthony Rizzo 0.0698 0.0478 15.1
4 Domonic Brown 0.0392 0.0670 15.0
5 Brian Dozier 0.0166 0.0404 14.8
6 Coco Crisp 0.0242 0.0480 13.9
7 Allen Craig 0.0562 0.0315 13.9
8 Prince Fielder 0.0679 0.0489 13.4
9 Will Venable 0.0355 0.0601 12.7
10 Ben Zobrist 0.0405 0.0227 12.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brandon Moss 0.0607 0.0971 18.4
2 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1145 0.0839 15.4
3 Coco Crisp 0.0218 0.0480 15.3
4 Anthony Rizzo 0.0695 0.0478 15.0
5 Brian Dozier 0.0167 0.0404 14.7
6 Dustin Pedroia 0.0350 0.0157 13.9
7 Carlos Pena 0.0845 0.0423 13.8
8 Ben Zobrist 0.0410 0.0227 12.7
9 Andrelton Simmons 0.0113 0.0304 12.5
10 Joey Votto 0.0705 0.0535 12.3

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0487 0.0649 0.0778 21.0 9.2 11.8
2 Juan Lagares 0.0394 0.0153 0.0132 10.8 0.9 10.0
3 Chris Carter 0.0667 0.0826 0.0970 18.0 8.4 9.6
4 Pedro Álvarez 0.0612 0.0756 0.0957 21.5 12.4 9.2
5 JB Shuck 0.0253 0.0030 0.0051 9.5 1.0 8.5
6 Adeiny Hechavarría 0.0299 0.0150 0.0066 13.1 4.8 8.3
7 Chris Davis 0.0640 0.0758 0.1352 48.2 40.0 8.2
8 Norichika Aoki 0.0260 0.0146 0.0141 7.7 0.4 7.3
9 Domonic Brown 0.0336 0.0455 0.0670 18.3 11.6 6.6
10 Pete Kozma 0.0341 0.0189 0.0031 13.7 7.1 6.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0419 0.0475 0.0476 4.1 0.1 4.0
2 Domonic Brown 0.0392 0.0455 0.0670 15.0 11.6 3.4
3 Pedro Álvarez 0.0703 0.0756 0.0957 15.7 12.4 3.3
4 Alfonso Soriano 0.0611 0.0660 0.0793 11.4 8.3 3.1
5 Mike Trout 0.0536 0.0578 0.0586 3.6 0.6 3.0
6 Nick Swisher 0.0587 0.0542 0.0530 3.6 0.7 2.9
7 Evan Longoria 0.0739 0.0701 0.0699 2.8 0.1 2.7
8 Kendrys Morales 0.0622 0.0582 0.0470 9.9 7.3 2.6
9 Dexter Fowler 0.0277 0.0327 0.0380 5.1 2.6 2.5
10 David Ortiz 0.0640 0.0704 0.0690 3.0 0.9 2.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ed Lucas 0.0394 0.0289 0.0144 9.6 5.6 4.1
2 David Ortiz 0.0767 0.0704 0.0690 4.6 0.9 3.8
3 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0530 0.0475 0.0476 3.8 0.1 3.7
4 Justin Upton 0.0507 0.0564 0.0672 10.6 6.9 3.7
5 Wil Myers 0.0667 0.0576 0.0524 5.3 1.9 3.4
6 Mike Napoli 0.0902 0.0844 0.0737 9.5 6.2 3.3
7 Adam Dunn 0.1062 0.1015 0.1003 3.6 0.7 2.9
8 Anthony Rendon 0.0377 0.0305 0.0242 5.3 2.5 2.8
9 Hunter Pence 0.0368 0.0406 0.0522 10.6 8.0 2.6
10 Evan Longoria 0.0661 0.0701 0.0699 2.6 0.1 2.5

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Nate McLouth 0.2041
0.0992
(64.4)
0.0957
(71.7)
0.0957
(61.2)
0.1028
(67.8)
Starling Marte 0.2847
0.1613
(72.0)
0.1594
(78.0)
0.1341
(82.3)
0.1905
(60.7)
Leonys Martin 0.3000
0.1355
(85.5)
0.1176
(99.0)
0.1103
(93.7)
0.1613
(77.1)
Hunter Pence 0.1325
0.0419
(64.8)
0.0596
(58.7)
0.0284
(68.0)
0.0559
(61.6)
Alex Rios 0.2642
0.1251
(94.5)
0.1473
(85.7)
0.1014
(104.3)
0.1493
(84.7)
Daniel Murphy 0.1377
0.0461
(66.5)
0.0567
(65.2)
0.0404
(64.2)
0.0517
(69.0)
Alfonso Soriano 0.1475
0.0340
(73.5)
0.0446
(72.3)
0.0301
(70.3)
0.0381
(76.7)
Rajai Davis 0.5114
0.3216
(69.7)
0.3455
(64.2)
0.2857
(79.4)
0.3585
(59.7)
Alexei Ramirez 0.1840
0.0776
(74.3)
0.0882
(73.0)
0.0690
(74.0)
0.0861
(74.8)
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.2955
0.1779
(77.2)
0.1759
(84.0)
0.1481
(90.4)
0.2091
(63.2)
Jean Segura 0.2716
0.1633
(69.9)
0.1067
(110.6)
0.1347
(82.1)
0.1912
(58.2)
Elvis Andrus 0.2111
0.1210
(65.5)
0.1381
(59.7)
0.0971
(75.9)
0.1450
(55.2)
Coco Crisp 0.1419
0.2616
(67.7)
0.2951
(82.1)
0.2382
(59.3)
0.2857
(76.4)
DJ LeMahieu 0.1682
0.0628
(47.4)
0.0357
(62.9)
0.0503
(48.9)
0.0750
(46.1)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Young Jr. 0.2325 0.3151 51.7
2 Mike Trout 0.2164 0.1410 51.3
3 Brett Gardner 0.2332 0.1538 46.0
4 Clete Thomas 0.1452 0.0135 41.2
5 Maicer Izturis 0.1115 0.0103 38.9
6 Jason Kipnis 0.1098 0.1648 38.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Young Jr. 0.2418 0.3151 51.3
2 Brett Gardner 0.2405 0.1538 45.1
3 Michael Bourn 0.2442 0.1565 43.2
4 Mike Trout 0.2119 0.1410 41.8
5 B.J. Upton 0.2308 0.1250 41.6
6 Pedro Florimón 0.0794 0.1531 38.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eric Young Jr. 0.1833 0.3151 75.7
2 Jose Altuve 0.1242 0.2023 49.0
3 Carlos González 0.0933 0.2000 44.3
4 Juan Pierre 0.1640 0.2949 41.5
5 Maicer Izturis 0.1071 0.0103 40.7
6 Jason Kipnis 0.1021 0.1648 37.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Trout 0.2582 0.1410 74.6
2 Brett Gardner 0.2772 0.1538 67.2
3 Starlin Castro 0.1420 0.0584 49.8
4 Grégor Blanco 0.2000 0.0952 46.9
5 Clete Thomas 0.1690 0.0135 45.9
6 Michael Bourn 0.2473 0.1565 44.8

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jean Segura 0.1067 0.1633 0.2716 110.6 69.9 40.7
2 Norichika Aoki 0.1587 0.0950 0.0971 33.1 4.0 29.1
3 AJ Pollock 0.0667 0.1181 0.1062 25.1 3.9 21.2
4 Aaron Hicks 0.0618 0.1168 0.1552 33.2 13.2 20.0
5 Matt Dominguez 0.0476 0.0091 0.0000 20.7 3.1 17.5
6 Paul Goldschmidt 0.1102 0.0723 0.0718 18.4 2.3 16.1
7 DJ LeMahieu 0.0357 0.0628 0.1682 62.9 47.4 15.5
8 Conor Gillaspie 0.0577 0.0149 0.0000 20.4 5.0 15.4
9 Coco Crisp 0.2951 0.2616 0.1419 82.1 67.7 14.5
10 Brandon Barnes 0.0678 0.0898 0.1089 23.9 10.2 13.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Eric Young Jr. 0.1833 0.2325 0.3151 75.7 51.7 24.0
2 Carlos Gómez 0.2338 0.2756 0.2899 30.0 10.7 19.3
3 Jose Altuve 0.1242 0.1581 0.2023 49.0 32.2 16.8
4 Lyle Overbay 0.0520 0.0332 0.0192 18.4 5.0 13.5
5 Jacoby Ellsbury 0.1481 0.1779 0.2955 90.4 77.2 13.2
6 Jean Segura 0.1347 0.1633 0.2716 82.1 69.9 12.2
7 Ian Desmond 0.1075 0.1337 0.1355 14.9 3.7 11.3
8 Matt Dominguez 0.0182 0.0091 0.0000 13.8 3.1 10.6
9 Elvis Andrus 0.0971 0.1210 0.2111 75.9 65.5 10.4
10 Starling Marte 0.1341 0.1613 0.2847 82.3 72.0 10.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Trout 0.2582 0.2164 0.1410 74.6 51.3 23.4
2 Brett Gardner 0.2772 0.2332 0.1538 67.2 46.0 21.2
3 Carl Crawford 0.2188 0.1797 0.1304 35.3 21.3 14.0
4 Starlin Castro 0.1420 0.1138 0.0584 49.8 36.3 13.4
5 Drew Stubbs 0.2391 0.2029 0.1504 36.4 23.4 13.0
6 Michael Bourn 0.2473 0.2165 0.1565 44.8 32.4 12.4
7 B.J. Upton 0.2345 0.2004 0.1250 43.0 31.9 11.1
8 Domonic Brown 0.1017 0.0728 0.0650 12.8 2.1 10.7
9 Grégor Blanco 0.2000 0.1710 0.0952 46.9 36.8 10.1
10 Alejandro De Aza 0.1620 0.1383 0.1190 20.2 10.4 9.8

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Starlin Castro 0.0837
0.1245
(26.7)
0.1158
(19.5)
0.1240
(26.3)
0.1250
(27.0)
Jimmy Rollins 0.0976
0.1345
(22.6)
0.1362
(22.7)
0.1290
(19.0)
0.1399
(26.2)
Jayson Werth 0.1579
0.1249
(19.1)
0.1256
(19.6)
0.1281
(17.4)
0.1218
(20.8)
Chris Davis 0.1530
0.1202
(24.1)
0.1201
(25.2)
0.1279
(18.9)
0.1125
(29.3)
B.J. Upton 0.0673
0.1327
(27.9)
0.1293
(25.7)
0.1282
(25.9)
0.1371
(29.8)
Matt Holliday 0.1711
0.1334
(24.5)
0.1412
(20.7)
0.1354
(23.3)
0.1314
(25.7)
Matt Carpenter 0.1757
0.1060
(52.1)
0.1203
(42.9)
0.1052
(52.7)
0.1069
(51.5)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Pablo Sandoval 0.1293 0.0890 21.8
2 Daniel Nava 0.1072 0.1437 21.1
3 Adeiny Hechavarría 0.0909 0.0519 20.8
4 Marlon Byrd 0.0977 0.1295 20.1
5 Anthony Rizzo 0.1342 0.1029 19.6
6 Paul Konerko 0.1189 0.0788 19.3
7 Hanley Ramirez 0.1336 0.1845 18.1
8 Jose Altuve 0.1244 0.0952 17.6
9 Yasiel Puig 0.1155 0.1528 17.4
10 Josh Willingham 0.1290 0.0892 17.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Starling Marte 0.1074 0.1466 24.7
2 Adeiny Hechavarría 0.0975 0.0519 23.8
3 Shin-Soo Choo 0.1217 0.1503 23.5
4 Josh Hamilton 0.1517 0.1148 20.6
5 Coco Crisp 0.1287 0.1592 20.4
6 Trevor Plouffe 0.1277 0.0843 20.3
7 Brandon Belt 0.1026 0.1331 20.0
8 Hanley Ramirez 0.1298 0.1845 19.9
9 Adam Lind 0.0956 0.1286 19.5
10 Daniel Murphy 0.1087 0.1320 19.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Paul Konerko 0.1304 0.0788 25.3
2 Pablo Sandoval 0.1343 0.0890 24.7
3 Marlon Byrd 0.0906 0.1295 24.3
4 Prince Fielder 0.1519 0.1152 24.0
5 Billy Butler 0.1317 0.0928 24.0
6 Anthony Rizzo 0.1361 0.1029 20.8
7 AJ Pollock 0.0941 0.1328 20.1
8 Hanley Ramirez 0.1294 0.1845 19.5
9 Buster Posey 0.1362 0.1025 18.3
10 Josh Willingham 0.1303 0.0892 18.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adeiny Hechavarría 0.0994 0.0519 25.7
2 Daniel Nava 0.1005 0.1437 24.7
3 Daniel Murphy 0.1045 0.1320 21.2
4 Paul Goldschmidt 0.1194 0.1451 20.3
5 Darwin Barney 0.1269 0.0883 19.8
6 Jose Altuve 0.1265 0.0952 19.0
7 Yadier Molina 0.0936 0.1257 19.0
8 Pablo Sandoval 0.1243 0.0890 18.9
9 Dustin Ackley 0.1406 0.0937 18.8
10 Anthony Rizzo 0.1324 0.1029 18.3

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Starling Marte 0.1074 0.1288 0.1466 24.7 11.8 13.0
2 Josh Hamilton 0.1517 0.1298 0.1148 20.6 7.7 13.0
3 Eric Young Jr. 0.1455 0.1237 0.1171 14.3 2.2 12.1
4 Kyle Seager 0.1009 0.1160 0.1137 12.0 0.4 11.6
5 Shin-Soo Choo 0.1217 0.1360 0.1503 23.5 12.3 11.2
6 Brandon Belt 0.1026 0.1179 0.1331 20.0 10.3 9.6
7 Michael Young 0.1259 0.1099 0.0920 16.6 8.4 8.2
8 Pedro Álvarez 0.1040 0.1182 0.1140 8.9 0.7 8.2
9 Juan Lagares 0.1155 0.0948 0.0831 11.7 3.7 8.1
10 Adam Lind 0.0956 0.1093 0.1286 19.5 11.6 7.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Prince Fielder 0.1519 0.1347 0.1152 24.0 11.8 12.2
2 Zack Cozart 0.0975 0.1148 0.1197 15.6 4.9 10.7
3 Carlos Gómez 0.1093 0.1242 0.1356 17.3 8.5 8.8
4 Marco Scutaro 0.1269 0.1123 0.1042 10.8 2.8 8.0
5 Billy Butler 0.1317 0.1203 0.0928 24.0 16.4 7.6
6 Michael Saunders 0.1065 0.1219 0.1261 10.5 3.3 7.2
7 Victor Martinez 0.1282 0.1179 0.1018 15.7 8.8 6.9
8 Brett Gardner 0.1256 0.1359 0.1330 6.3 0.0 6.3
9 Andrew McCutchen 0.1375 0.1467 0.1439 6.3 0.1 6.3
10 Jean Segura 0.0942 0.1041 0.1188 17.2 11.0 6.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Darwin Barney 0.1269 0.1105 0.0883 19.8 10.7 9.0
2 Grégor Blanco 0.1250 0.1088 0.0978 12.4 4.1 8.3
3 Dexter Fowler 0.1194 0.1351 0.1443 13.7 6.0 7.8
4 Nick Markakis 0.1118 0.1219 0.1271 12.8 5.7 7.0
5 Carlos Beltrán 0.1113 0.1218 0.1317 14.0 7.7 6.3
6 Daniel Murphy 0.1045 0.1134 0.1320 21.2 15.0 6.3
7 Brett Gardner 0.1462 0.1359 0.1330 6.2 0.0 6.2
8 Andrew McCutchen 0.1560 0.1467 0.1439 6.2 0.1 6.1
9 Mike Trout 0.1755 0.1671 0.1522 14.6 8.6 6.0
10 Will Middlebrooks 0.0900 0.1056 0.1096 8.4 2.6 5.8

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Starlin Castro 0.0624
0.1098
(30.0)
0.1002
(23.8)
0.1064
(27.4)
0.1132
(32.6)
Jayson Werth 0.1541
0.1097
(26.2)
0.1023
(29.7)
0.1135
(24.3)
0.1058
(28.2)
Paul Goldschmidt 0.1761
0.1451
(25.4)
0.1327
(33.6)
0.1475
(23.9)
0.1426
(27.0)
Chris Davis 0.2051
0.1411
(46.3)
0.1220
(58.5)
0.1465
(42.9)
0.1357
(49.8)
Marlon Byrd 0.1520
0.0982
(33.9)
0.0881
(39.3)
0.1024
(31.7)
0.0941
(36.2)
B.J. Upton 0.0583
0.1218
(26.2)
0.1172
(24.5)
0.1203
(25.4)
0.1233
(26.9)
Wilson Ramos 0.1947
0.1129
(26.2)
0.1111
(26.5)
0.1165
(25.2)
0.1093
(27.3)
Joey Votto 0.1006
0.1449
(28.7)
0.1378
(24.2)
0.1396
(24.7)
0.1503
(32.7)
Miguel Cabrera 0.2101
0.1720
(28.0)
0.1724
(27.2)
0.1749
(26.3)
0.1692
(29.7)
Brandon Phillips 0.1547
0.1134
(30.7)
0.1115
(31.4)
0.1058
(35.9)
0.1209
(25.5)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Rizzo 0.1623 0.1159 28.7
2 Jimmy Rollins 0.1003 0.0586 24.6
3 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1737 0.1230 23.1
4 Starling Marte 0.1068 0.0618 22.7
5 Brandon Moss 0.1327 0.1723 22.4
6 Shin-Soo Choo 0.1118 0.0758 22.2
7 Michael Brantley 0.0886 0.1195 21.8
8 Domonic Brown 0.1195 0.1537 21.1
9 Mike Moustakas 0.1272 0.0817 20.9
10 Alexei Ramirez 0.1066 0.0712 20.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Josh Hamilton 0.1746 0.1242 29.6
2 Adam Jones 0.1189 0.1567 28.8
3 Freddie Freeman 0.1320 0.1733 28.5
4 Jimmy Rollins 0.0997 0.0586 24.8
5 Evan Gattis 0.1106 0.1702 24.2
6 Josh Willingham 0.1568 0.1019 24.0
7 Carl Crawford 0.1210 0.0661 23.9
8 Miguel Montero 0.1426 0.0884 23.9
9 Domonic Brown 0.1141 0.1537 23.5
10 Marco Scutaro 0.1035 0.0567 23.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1751 0.1230 23.7
2 Anthony Rizzo 0.1549 0.1159 23.3
3 Michael Brantley 0.0882 0.1195 22.2
4 Brandon Moss 0.1338 0.1723 22.0
5 Mike Moustakas 0.1295 0.0817 21.9
6 Freddie Freeman 0.1435 0.1733 21.9
7 Domonic Brown 0.1182 0.1537 21.9
8 Justin Upton 0.1476 0.1089 21.6
9 Pedro Álvarez 0.1351 0.1629 20.2
10 Eric Young Jr. 0.0922 0.0535 20.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Rizzo 0.1698 0.1159 34.0
2 Shin-Soo Choo 0.1279 0.0758 33.8
3 Jimmy Rollins 0.1092 0.0586 30.7
4 Starling Marte 0.1176 0.0618 29.0
5 Chase Headley 0.1294 0.0833 24.9
6 Adam Jones 0.1258 0.1567 24.5
7 Miguel Montero 0.1443 0.0884 24.3
8 Adam LaRoche 0.1506 0.1051 24.1
9 Alexei Ramirez 0.1101 0.0712 23.1
10 Brandon Moss 0.1316 0.1723 22.9

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Josh Hamilton 0.1746 0.1505 0.1242 29.6 13.6 15.9
2 Zack Cozart 0.0730 0.0971 0.1019 20.3 6.0 14.4
3 Adeiny Hechavarría 0.1083 0.0861 0.0727 18.3 5.0 13.4
4 Chris Davis 0.1220 0.1411 0.2051 58.5 46.3 12.2
5 Jay Bruce 0.1400 0.1581 0.1564 14.2 2.2 12.0
6 Chris Carter 0.1180 0.1394 0.1402 15.3 3.3 12.0
7 Adam Jones 0.1189 0.1351 0.1567 28.8 18.2 10.5
8 Pete Kozma 0.1205 0.0986 0.0781 17.2 7.0 10.2
9 Marco Scutaro 0.1035 0.0863 0.0567 23.5 13.6 9.9
10 Michael Young 0.1241 0.1083 0.0814 21.9 12.4 9.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alfonso Soriano 0.1383 0.1545 0.1613 17.6 7.3 10.3
2 Justin Upton 0.1476 0.1313 0.1089 21.6 11.3 10.3
3 Daniel Murphy 0.0938 0.1076 0.1119 16.2 6.3 9.9
4 Eric Young Jr. 0.0922 0.0766 0.0535 20.1 10.9 9.2
5 Juan Uribe 0.1041 0.1206 0.1174 7.8 0.7 7.1
6 Jonathan Lucroy 0.1150 0.1260 0.1414 18.3 11.8 6.5
7 Torii Hunter 0.1220 0.1361 0.1288 7.8 1.6 6.2
8 Allen Craig 0.1476 0.1577 0.1723 16.8 11.0 5.8
9 Prince Fielder 0.1618 0.1538 0.1489 5.5 0.1 5.5
10 Brandon Phillips 0.1058 0.1134 0.1547 35.9 30.7 5.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Shin-Soo Choo 0.1279 0.1118 0.0758 33.8 22.2 11.7
2 Neil Walker 0.1394 0.1211 0.0962 21.3 11.0 10.2
3 Torii Hunter 0.1503 0.1361 0.1288 11.0 1.6 9.4
4 Zack Cozart 0.0829 0.0971 0.1019 14.6 6.0 8.7
5 Wilin Rosario 0.1299 0.1475 0.1695 20.6 12.5 8.1
6 Emilio Bonifácio 0.0520 0.0684 0.0672 9.1 1.7 7.4
7 Yuniesky Betancourt 0.1406 0.1232 0.1125 9.6 2.4 7.2
8 Josh Reddick 0.1026 0.1190 0.1270 12.8 5.6 7.1
9 Grégor Blanco 0.0625 0.0756 0.0802 11.4 4.9 6.6
10 Ryan Howard 0.1878 0.1676 0.1356 15.1 8.6 6.5

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Starlin Castro 0.2447
0.2926
(34.9)
0.2896
(30.9)
0.2917
(33.3)
0.2936
(36.5)
Freddie Freeman 0.3194
0.2738
(27.7)
0.2653
(34.6)
0.2734
(28.8)
0.2742
(26.6)
Jayson Werth 0.3182
0.2568
(31.8)
0.2681
(27.1)
0.2601
(30.7)
0.2535
(32.9)
Darwin Barney 0.2076
0.2694
(35.2)
0.2617
(29.5)
0.2689
(34.2)
0.2698
(36.2)
Daniel Nava 0.3035
0.2472
(29.3)
0.2460
(31.3)
0.2540
(26.4)
0.2404
(32.2)
Dan Uggla 0.1786
0.2376
(32.6)
0.2445
(34.9)
0.2369
(31.5)
0.2382
(33.6)
Josh Donaldson 0.3005
0.2418
(38.1)
0.2437
(38.5)
0.2501
(33.4)
0.2336
(42.7)
B.J. Upton 0.1841
0.2481
(29.3)
0.2442
(26.4)
0.2453
(27.4)
0.2509
(31.1)
Chris Johnson 0.3210
0.2580
(33.6)
0.2725
(27.0)
0.2620
(32.1)
0.2540
(35.1)
Hanley Ramirez 0.3454
0.2680
(25.4)
0.2633
(27.9)
0.2693
(25.5)
0.2668
(25.4)
David Murphy 0.2202
0.2787
(28.6)
0.2848
(30.3)
0.2823
(29.7)
0.2751
(27.5)
Jed Lowrie 0.2902
0.2457
(28.4)
0.2526
(25.5)
0.2456
(29.3)
0.2457
(27.5)
Michael Cuddyer 0.3313
0.2798
(26.9)
0.2691
(34.1)
0.2757
(29.8)
0.2839
(24.0)
Matt Carpenter 0.3179
0.2634
(37.9)
0.2736
(32.4)
0.2697
(34.3)
0.2570
(41.5)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Rizzo 0.2772 0.2327 31.9
2 Alcides Escobar 0.2711 0.2339 24.9
3 Paul Goldschmidt 0.2674 0.3023 23.6
4 Yasiel Puig 0.2645 0.3194 23.0
5 Mike Trout 0.2896 0.3226 22.4
6 Yoenis Cespedes 0.2774 0.2401 22.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Josh Hamilton 0.2992 0.2500 30.7
2 Eric Hosmer 0.2582 0.3018 30.3
3 Jose Iglesias 0.2262 0.3029 29.6
4 Justin Ruggiano 0.2814 0.2217 27.8
5 Paul Konerko 0.2958 0.2441 26.4
6 Pete Kozma 0.2727 0.2171 24.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Rizzo 0.2756 0.2327 29.9
2 Alcides Escobar 0.2714 0.2339 24.3
3 Yoenis Cespedes 0.2819 0.2401 24.2
4 Yasiel Puig 0.2645 0.3194 23.6
5 Manny Machado 0.2508 0.2834 22.9
6 Marlon Byrd 0.2534 0.2914 21.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Rizzo 0.2787 0.2327 33.8
2 Paul Goldschmidt 0.2593 0.3023 28.5
3 Mike Trout 0.2817 0.3226 27.2
4 Alcides Escobar 0.2708 0.2339 25.6
5 Yasiel Puig 0.2645 0.3194 22.4
6 Paul Konerko 0.2840 0.2441 22.3

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Pete Kozma 0.2727 0.2286 0.2171 24.5 5.9 18.6
2 Eric Sogard 0.2231 0.2577 0.2663 18.1 2.8 15.2
3 Josh Hamilton 0.2992 0.2727 0.2500 30.7 15.5 15.2
4 Domonic Brown 0.2441 0.2652 0.2722 15.7 2.9 12.8
5 Eric Hosmer 0.2582 0.2739 0.3018 30.3 17.8 12.4
6 Nick Franklin 0.2645 0.2343 0.2249 15.9 4.5 11.4
7 Jose Iglesias 0.2262 0.2528 0.3029 29.6 18.5 11.1
8 Jean Segura 0.2576 0.2727 0.2942 23.4 12.4 11.0
9 Starling Marte 0.2556 0.2705 0.2804 14.6 4.7 9.9
10 Justin Ruggiano 0.2814 0.2587 0.2217 27.8 18.2 9.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Justin Upton 0.2874 0.2754 0.2634 15.6 8.8 6.8
2 Torii Hunter 0.2701 0.2785 0.3036 21.7 15.3 6.4
3 David Ortiz 0.2783 0.2864 0.3089 18.1 12.5 5.7
4 Chris Carter 0.2561 0.2465 0.2233 19.3 14.5 4.8
5 Jean Segura 0.2670 0.2727 0.2942 16.8 12.4 4.4
6 Evan Longoria 0.2776 0.2706 0.2687 6.4 2.4 4.0
7 Jedd Gyorko 0.2697 0.2613 0.2490 11.1 7.4 3.7
8 Robinson Canó 0.2931 0.2971 0.3140 14.0 10.4 3.7
9 Edwin Encarnación 0.2646 0.2690 0.2717 4.2 0.6 3.5
10 Bryce Harper 0.2632 0.2684 0.2736 5.0 1.7 3.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 JB Shuck 0.2442 0.2590 0.2929 21.9 15.4 6.5
2 Brandon Barnes 0.2109 0.2265 0.2402 11.7 5.4 6.4
3 Paul Goldschmidt 0.2593 0.2674 0.3023 28.5 23.6 4.9
4 Mike Trout 0.2817 0.2896 0.3226 27.2 22.4 4.7
5 Josh Donaldson 0.2336 0.2418 0.3005 42.7 38.1 4.6
6 Jimmy Rollins 0.2599 0.2549 0.2517 7.4 3.3 4.2
7 Brandon Crawford 0.2302 0.2387 0.2485 8.4 4.5 4.0
8 Didi Gregorius 0.2710 0.2628 0.2521 8.8 5.0 3.8
9 Matt Carpenter 0.2570 0.2634 0.3179 41.5 37.9 3.7
10 Kurt Suzuki 0.2634 0.2532 0.2316 11.0 7.4 3.6

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
José Fernández 681
214
(467.0)
100
(581.0)
214
(467.0)
100
(581.0)
Wandy Rodriguez 260
769
(509.0)
758
(498.0)
770
(510.0)
768
(507.9)
Clayton Richard 239
764
(524.5)
754
(515.0)
815
(576.0)
712
(473.1)
Johnny Cueto 242
826
(583.5)
769
(527.0)
829
(587.0)
822
(580.1)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Roy Halladay 756 282 474.5
2 Brandon Morrow 674 242 432.0
3 Jaime García 649 234 415.0
4 Eric Stults 442 857 414.5
5 Vance Worley 633 234 399.0
6 Liam Hendriks 620 224 396.5
7 Andy Pettitte 433 784 351.1
8 Wade LeBlanc 608 259 349.0
9 Luke Hochevar 608 262 345.5
10 Tommy Hanson 668 327 340.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hyun Jin Ryu 100 783 683.0
2 Shelby Miller 165 722 557.0
3 Julio Teheran 221 774 553.0
4 Wily Peralta 295 802 507.0
5 Andrew Cashner 228 707 479.0
6 Luke Hochevar 735 262 473.0
7 Eric Stults 406 857 451.0
8 John Lackey 330 778 448.0
9 Tom Koehler 155 601 446.0
10 Hisashi Iwakuma 442 866 424.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hyun Jin Ryu 213 783 570.0
2 Jeff Locke 215 711 496.0
3 Eric Stults 365 857 492.0
4 Roy Halladay 768 282 486.0
5 Julio Teheran 298 774 476.0
6 Mike Leake 334 801 467.0
7 Dallas Keuchel 220 682 462.0
8 Brandon Morrow 678 242 436.0
9 Garrett Richards 219 620 401.0
10 Esmil Rogers 201 598 397.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Liam Hendriks 725 224 501.0
2 Roy Halladay 745 282 463.0
3 Jaime García 694 234 460.1
4 Jeremy Bonderman 705 246 459.0
5 Brett Cecil 703 250 452.9
6 Luke Hochevar 698 262 436.1
7 John Lannan 763 332 431.0
8 Vance Worley 663 234 428.9
9 Brandon Morrow 670 242 428.0
10 Drew Smyly 730 303 426.9

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Hyun Jin Ryu 100 492 783 683.0 290.6 392.4
2 Shelby Miller 165 506 722 557.0 215.9 341.1
3 Jonathan Pettibone 100 437 437 337.0 0.1 336.9
4 Zack Wheeler 100 425 431 331.0 6.4 324.6
5 Gerrit Cole 100 405 469 369.0 64.1 304.9
6 Matt Harvey 389 676 690 301.0 13.5 287.5
7 Tom Koehler 155 439 601 446.0 162.0 284.0
8 Dan Straily 350 632 640 290.0 8.5 281.5
9 John Lackey 330 604 778 448.0 174.5 273.5
10 Wily Peralta 295 564 802 507.0 237.5 269.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Hyun Jin Ryu 213 492 783 570.0 290.6 279.4
2 Corey Kluber 216 471 608 392.0 137.4 254.6
3 Dallas Keuchel 220 472 682 462.0 210.5 251.5
4 Jeff Locke 215 446 711 496.0 264.5 231.5
5 Tom Koehler 220 439 601 381.0 162.0 219.0
6 Jonathan Pettibone 220 437 437 217.0 0.1 216.9
7 Carlos Torres 132 338 352 220.0 13.9 206.1
8 Zack Wheeler 221 425 431 210.0 6.4 203.6
9 Garrett Richards 219 421 620 401.0 198.6 202.4
10 Jeremy Hefner 252 450 556 304.0 106.0 198.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brett Cecil 703 420 250 452.9 169.9 283.0
2 Jeanmar Gómez 707 463 333 374.1 130.1 244.0
3 Jeremy Bonderman 705 461 246 459.0 215.0 244.0
4 Brett Oberholtzer 679 449 293 386.1 155.6 230.5
5 Drew Smyly 730 500 303 426.9 196.9 230.0
6 Tyler Cloyd 690 460 282 407.9 178.4 229.5
7 Jonathan Pettibone 654 437 437 216.9 0.1 216.9
8 Justin Wilson 574 358 295 279.0 63.5 215.5
9 T.J. McFarland 653 438 331 321.9 107.4 214.5
10 Jarred Cosart 555 343 246 308.9 97.4 211.5

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Yovani Gallardo 0.1863
0.2337
(45.0)
0.2302
(37.1)
0.2288
(39.1)
0.2386
(50.5)
Scott Kazmir 0.2411
0.1425
(59.0)
0.1705
(44.7)
0.1459
(58.5)
0.1390
(59.8)
Trevor Rosenthal 0.3473
0.2189
(36.6)
0.2089
(41.8)
0.2258
(35.3)
0.2119
(38.1)
Yu Darvish 0.3294
0.2620
(47.5)
0.2444
(68.0)
0.2527
(57.7)
0.2713
(37.9)
Aníbal Sánchez 0.2708
0.1815
(58.5)
0.2091
(43.0)
0.1852
(57.8)
0.1779
(59.6)
A.J. Burnett 0.2609
0.1891
(48.8)
0.2011
(44.7)
0.1943
(46.9)
0.1840
(51.2)
Luke Hochevar 0.3130
0.1669
(35.4)
0.1741
(35.3)
0.1720
(34.8)
0.1619
(36.2)
Danny Farquhar 0.3465
0.1773
(36.1)
0.1909
(34.5)
0.1771
(36.8)
0.1776
(35.5)
Justin Masterson 0.2428
0.1706
(49.3)
0.1779
(48.8)
0.1705
(51.6)
0.1708
(47.4)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Andrew Cashner 0.2346 0.1810 45.5
2 Esmil Rogers 0.2210 0.1605 42.7
3 John Lackey 0.1419 0.2069 42.1
4 Dallas Keuchel 0.1100 0.1804 40.6
5 Julio Teheran 0.1649 0.2196 34.0
6 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1952 0.2497 33.9
7 Jose Quintana 0.1457 0.1971 33.7
8 Jake Westbrook 0.1364 0.0841 33.0
9 Aroldis Chapman 0.2954 0.4341 33.0
10 Rick Porcello 0.1373 0.1929 32.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Fernández 0.1999 0.2746 48.1
2 Dylan Axelrod 0.1891 0.1246 40.2
3 Lucas Harrell 0.1750 0.1259 37.6
4 Greg Holland 0.2555 0.4039 36.8
5 Jake Westbrook 0.1488 0.0841 36.0
6 Andy Pettitte 0.2046 0.1633 35.6
7 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.2003 0.2497 35.2
8 Max Scherzer 0.2411 0.2871 35.0
9 Scott Diamond 0.1451 0.0903 33.9
10 Rick Porcello 0.1444 0.1929 32.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Andrew Cashner 0.2529 0.1810 56.5
2 Dallas Keuchel 0.1093 0.1804 42.9
3 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1896 0.2497 40.4
4 Esmil Rogers 0.2195 0.1605 40.1
5 John Lackey 0.1500 0.2069 38.0
6 Danny Salazar 0.1309 0.3081 35.7
7 Dylan Axelrod 0.1773 0.1246 35.7
8 Jake Westbrook 0.1384 0.0841 32.6
9 Andy Pettitte 0.1967 0.1633 32.6
10 Rick Porcello 0.1408 0.1929 32.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Lackey 0.1338 0.2069 46.8
2 Esmil Rogers 0.2225 0.1605 44.9
3 José Fernández 0.1999 0.2746 42.0
4 Aroldis Chapman 0.2648 0.4341 40.3
5 Dallas Keuchel 0.1107 0.1804 38.7
6 Julio Teheran 0.1567 0.2196 38.6
7 Jason Hammel 0.2067 0.1571 38.2
8 Jose Quintana 0.1394 0.1971 37.2
9 Bud Norris 0.2245 0.1902 36.6
10 Wily Peralta 0.1904 0.1608 34.2

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 José Fernández 0.1999 0.2288 0.2746 48.1 23.8 24.3
2 Jonathan Pettibone 0.1999 0.1418 0.1510 23.2 0.7 22.4
3 Yu Darvish 0.2444 0.2620 0.3294 68.0 47.5 20.5
4 Kenley Jansen 0.3053 0.3625 0.3801 20.6 2.0 18.7
5 Paul Clemens 0.1999 0.1401 0.1517 16.9 0.2 16.7
6 Tony Cingrani 0.2066 0.2387 0.2857 31.5 15.2 16.3
7 Donovan Hand 0.1999 0.1362 0.1294 21.4 5.1 16.3
8 Andrew Albers 0.1999 0.1292 0.1004 25.8 9.9 15.9
9 Lucas Harrell 0.1750 0.1463 0.1259 37.6 22.1 15.5
10 Taylor Jordan 0.1999 0.1187 0.1318 15.9 0.5 15.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Andrew Cashner 0.2529 0.2346 0.1810 56.5 45.5 11.0
2 Yu Darvish 0.2527 0.2620 0.3294 57.7 47.5 10.1
3 Jeff Locke 0.1947 0.1777 0.1758 19.2 9.1 10.1
4 Eric Stults 0.1592 0.1459 0.1529 12.4 3.4 9.0
5 Cliff Lee 0.2298 0.2364 0.2534 13.6 5.4 8.2
6 Koji Uehara 0.2588 0.2864 0.3811 30.3 22.2 8.0
7 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.1712 0.1773 0.2136 29.7 22.1 7.6
8 Dylan Axelrod 0.1773 0.1619 0.1246 35.7 28.3 7.4
9 Justin Wilson 0.2173 0.1888 0.2000 7.5 0.1 7.4
10 Tom Koehler 0.1849 0.1700 0.1531 24.0 16.7 7.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 José Fernández 0.1999 0.2288 0.2746 42.0 23.8 18.2
2 Andrew Albers 0.1999 0.1292 0.1004 28.0 9.9 18.2
3 Taylor Jordan 0.1999 0.1187 0.1318 17.8 0.5 17.4
4 Seth Maness 0.1999 0.1345 0.1406 18.0 1.2 16.8
5 Wei-Yin Chen 0.1263 0.1571 0.1818 24.3 7.9 16.4
6 Corey Kluber 0.1558 0.1762 0.2237 33.3 22.3 11.1
7 Bud Norris 0.2245 0.2126 0.1902 36.6 25.8 10.8
8 Tyson Ross 0.1576 0.1805 0.2361 33.0 22.6 10.4
9 Jason Hammel 0.2067 0.1934 0.1571 38.2 28.8 9.4
10 Jeff Samardzija 0.2396 0.2314 0.2341 16.8 7.5 9.4

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Clay Buchholz 0.7500
0.4061
(151.0)
0.2973
(160.9)
0.3956
(160.6)
0.4167
(143.4)
Matt Moore 0.6296
0.3956
(162.5)
0.2195
(221.0)
0.4411
(141.3)
0.3548
(183.7)
Julio Teheran 0.4667
0.2991
(144.5)
0.1429
(199.6)
0.3116
(144.4)
0.2857
(148.8)
Bartolo Colon 0.6000
0.3976
(170.3)
0.2286
(234.9)
0.3954
(181.7)
0.4000
(162.5)
Martín Pérez 0.5000
0.2283
(153.8)
0.1154
(168.6)
0.2238
(162.8)
0.2333
(147.1)
Ian Kennedy 0.2258
0.4344
(150.5)
0.3333
(137.7)
0.4313
(138.1)
0.4375
(159.1)
Phil Hughes 0.1333
0.3957
(156.2)
0.3333
(170.7)
0.3988
(150.1)
0.3929
(159.3)
Max Scherzer 0.6562
0.4522
(186.5)
0.3421
(207.5)
0.4838
(170.5)
0.4194
(207.5)
Jordan Zimmermann 0.5938
0.4072
(177.9)
0.2500
(240.3)
0.4306
(168.5)
0.3846
(190.7)
Francisco Liriano 0.6154
0.3436
(193.7)
0.2162
(221.9)
0.3904
(170.9)
0.3000
(217.6)
Cole Hamels 0.2424
0.4646
(183.8)
0.3421
(149.9)
0.4781
(184.7)
0.4516
(179.1)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Corey Kluber 0.1503 0.4231 177.4
2 Joe Blanton 0.3541 0.0714 161.1
3 Mike Leake 0.2707 0.4516 160.2
4 Jeff Samardzija 0.4308 0.2424 154.8
5 Stephen Strasburg 0.4760 0.2667 139.1
6 Justin Verlander 0.5457 0.3824 133.5
7 Matt Cain 0.4518 0.2667 126.2
8 C.J. Wilson 0.3968 0.5152 125.5
9 Jeremy Guthrie 0.3360 0.4545 124.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Shelby Miller 0.1176 0.4839 216.8
2 Jorge De La Rosa 0.1818 0.5333 203.9
3 Kris Medlen 0.1750 0.4688 186.8
4 Adam Wainwright 0.3056 0.5588 179.1
5 Patrick Corbin 0.1765 0.4375 167.8
6 Jeremy Guthrie 0.2162 0.4545 156.0
7 Jhoulys Chacín 0.2069 0.4516 145.9
8 Chris Tillman 0.2500 0.4848 142.7
9 Corey Kluber 0.1333 0.4231 136.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Corey Kluber 0.1188 0.4231 204.2
2 Joe Blanton 0.4172 0.0714 192.0
3 Mike Leake 0.2668 0.4516 173.3
4 Stephen Strasburg 0.4947 0.2667 143.6
5 Matt Cain 0.4842 0.2667 141.3
6 Justin Verlander 0.5608 0.3824 135.9
7 Jeff Locke 0.1804 0.3333 131.2
8 Jeff Samardzija 0.4171 0.2424 130.8
9 Chris Tillman 0.3626 0.4848 130.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jeff Samardzija 0.4444 0.2424 174.3
2 Gio Gonzalez 0.5625 0.3438 169.9
3 Mike Leake 0.2759 0.4516 149.9
4 Yu Darvish 0.5862 0.4062 141.8
5 Samuel Deduno 0.1538 0.4444 139.2
6 Stephen Strasburg 0.4583 0.2667 131.8
7 Lance Lynn 0.3125 0.4545 131.3
8 Jeremy Guthrie 0.3214 0.4545 130.7
9 A.J. Griffin 0.2903 0.4375 130.5

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kris Medlen 0.1750 0.4470 0.4688 186.8 33.4 153.4
2 Shelby Miller 0.1176 0.3693 0.4839 216.8 96.5 120.3
3 Cliff Lee 0.2500 0.4695 0.4516 118.8 1.0 117.8
4 Adam Wainwright 0.3056 0.5045 0.5588 179.1 70.1 108.9
5 Jorge De La Rosa 0.1818 0.4085 0.5333 203.9 102.7 101.2
6 Andrew Cashner 0.0968 0.3637 0.3226 113.0 15.6 97.5
7 Wily Peralta 0.1481 0.3448 0.3438 104.0 14.4 89.6
8 Donovan Hand 0.2704 0.0567 0.0323 87.0 1.5 85.4
9 Jhoulys Chacín 0.2069 0.3958 0.4516 145.9 61.1 84.8
10 Ryan Pressly 0.2704 0.0630 0.0612 86.7 5.4 81.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Tillman 0.3626 0.4093 0.4848 130.0 79.9 50.0
2 Roberto Hernandez 0.1297 0.1813 0.1875 57.5 16.2 41.2
3 Tom Koehler 0.1125 0.1566 0.1724 55.0 20.9 34.1
4 Brandon Maurer 0.3522 0.2578 0.2273 37.5 4.6 32.9
5 Héctor Rondón 0.2704 0.0000 0.0444 47.0 15.4 31.7
6 Jose Quintana 0.3468 0.2964 0.2727 35.4 3.8 31.6
7 Joe Blanton 0.4172 0.3541 0.0714 192.0 161.1 30.9
8 Paul Clemens 0.3200 0.2180 0.1143 56.3 27.3 28.9
9 Corey Kluber 0.1188 0.1503 0.4231 204.2 177.4 26.7
10 Juan Nicasio 0.4125 0.3632 0.2903 63.7 37.8 25.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 José Fernández 0.2704 0.4054 0.4286 115.4 28.8 86.6
2 Roberto Hernandez 0.3333 0.1813 0.1875 86.5 16.2 70.3
3 Kevin Gregg 0.2704 0.0513 0.0323 61.0 0.0 61.0
4 Gio Gonzalez 0.5625 0.5076 0.3438 169.9 118.6 51.3
5 Preston Claiborne 0.2704 0.0464 0.0000 55.4 5.8 49.6
6 Tyson Ross 0.2069 0.0917 0.0857 55.4 6.6 48.8
7 Alfredo Figaro 0.2704 0.0928 0.0909 53.1 5.4 47.7
8 Yu Darvish 0.5862 0.5406 0.4062 141.8 97.0 44.9
9 Dylan Axelrod 0.2222 0.1476 0.1333 45.4 2.8 42.7
10 Brett Cecil 0.2812 0.1230 0.0833 46.6 5.1 41.5

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Edward Mujica 0.5692
0.0000
(144.2)
0.0204
(144.2)
0.0000
(144.2)
0.0000
(137.7)
Kevin Gregg 0.5323
0.0000
(142.1)
0.2105
(91.0)
0.0000
(142.2)
0.0301
(127.2)
Ernesto Frieri 0.5522
0.3571
(55.9)
0.1667
(117.5)
0.3556
(56.3)
0.0000
(152.7)
Aroldis Chapman 0.5588
0.2594
(76.3)
0.2800
(76.2)
0.2266
(84.7)
0.0000
(136.6)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Axford 0.5769 0.0000 167.8
2 Jim Henderson 0.0000 0.4590 112.4
3 Carlos Marmol 0.4959 0.0385 103.8
4 Wilton Lopez 0.2664 0.0000 86.7
5 Joaquín Benoit 0.0331 0.3636 86.6
6 Danny Farquhar 0.0000 0.3478 78.4
7 Koji Uehara 0.0000 0.2877 75.2
8 Huston Street 0.8431 0.5690 61.7
9 Jarred Cosart 0.2427 0.0000 60.6
10 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.6407 0.4068 59.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Greg Holland 0.1556 0.6912 140.8
2 Sergio Romo 0.1000 0.5846 125.3
3 Grant Balfour 0.1538 0.5846 117.2
4 Glen Perkins 0.1200 0.5902 116.8
5 Jason Grilli 0.0500 0.6111 116.7
6 John Axford 0.4151 0.0000 115.1
7 Steve Cishek 0.1333 0.4928 105.7
8 Casey Janssen 0.1556 0.6071 98.3
9 Jim Henderson 0.0800 0.4590 97.7
10 Jim Johnson 0.3673 0.6757 94.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Axford 0.5795 0.0000 168.6
2 Jim Henderson 0.0000 0.4590 112.4
3 Carlos Marmol 0.4933 0.0385 103.2
4 Wilton Lopez 0.2917 0.0000 94.8
5 Joaquín Benoit 0.0343 0.3636 86.3
6 Danny Farquhar 0.0000 0.3478 78.4
7 Koji Uehara 0.0000 0.2877 75.2
8 Huston Street 0.8750 0.5690 68.8
9 Chris Perez 0.7160 0.4630 62.4
10 Mariano Rivera 0.9211 0.6875 60.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jim Johnson 0.0000 0.6757 188.1
2 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.7353 182.2
3 Greg Holland 0.0000 0.6912 168.8
4 Mariano Rivera 0.0000 0.6875 168.5
5 Rafael Soriano 0.0000 0.6324 167.0
6 Addison Reed 0.0000 0.5882 164.9
7 Joe Nathan 0.0000 0.6418 153.1
8 Fernando Rodney 0.0000 0.5441 149.3
9 Grant Balfour 0.0000 0.5846 145.5
10 Sergio Romo 0.0000 0.5846 138.8

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Greg Holland 0.1556 0.6818 0.6912 140.8 1.4 139.4
2 Sergio Romo 0.1000 0.5567 0.5846 125.3 6.0 119.3
3 Jason Grilli 0.0500 0.6211 0.6111 116.7 2.8 113.9
4 Glen Perkins 0.1200 0.5351 0.5902 116.8 12.3 104.5
5 Casey Janssen 0.1556 0.5471 0.6071 98.3 11.8 86.5
6 Jim Johnson 0.3673 0.6243 0.6757 94.6 13.8 80.7
7 Grant Balfour 0.1538 0.4228 0.5846 117.2 41.4 75.8
8 Steve Cishek 0.1333 0.6060 0.4928 105.7 32.9 72.8
9 Rafael Soriano 0.3830 0.6406 0.6324 73.7 3.3 70.4
10 Jose Veras 0.0189 0.3611 0.3134 79.1 13.1 66.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mariano Rivera 0.9211 0.8723 0.6875 60.8 48.3 12.5
2 Greg Holland 0.6458 0.6818 0.6912 10.6 1.4 9.2
3 Aroldis Chapman 0.2266 0.2594 0.5588 84.7 76.3 8.5
4 Fernando Rodney 0.6173 0.5884 0.5441 22.3 14.0 8.3
5 Wilton Lopez 0.2917 0.2664 0.0000 94.8 86.7 8.1
6 Héctor Rondón 0.0301 0.0000 0.0000 8.2 0.9 7.3
7 Huston Street 0.8750 0.8431 0.5690 68.8 61.7 7.1
8 Chris Perez 0.7160 0.6897 0.4630 62.4 56.0 6.4
9 Jim Johnson 0.6039 0.6243 0.6757 19.8 13.8 5.9
10 Rafael Soriano 0.6615 0.6406 0.6324 9.1 3.3 5.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jim Johnson 0.0000 0.6243 0.6757 188.1 13.8 174.3
2 Greg Holland 0.0000 0.6818 0.6912 168.8 1.4 167.4
3 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.6654 0.7353 182.2 17.0 165.1
4 Rafael Soriano 0.0000 0.6406 0.6324 167.0 3.3 163.7
5 Joe Nathan 0.0000 0.6999 0.6418 153.1 15.5 137.6
6 Fernando Rodney 0.0000 0.5884 0.5441 149.3 14.0 135.3
7 Sergio Romo 0.0000 0.5567 0.5846 138.8 6.0 132.8
8 Glen Perkins 0.0000 0.5351 0.5902 134.6 12.3 122.3
9 Mariano Rivera 0.0000 0.8723 0.6875 168.5 48.3 120.2
10 Jason Grilli 0.0000 0.6211 0.6111 117.5 2.8 114.7

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
CC Sabathia 4.7773
3.6073
(1362.6)
3.3223
(1433.9)
3.6110
(1270.1)
3.6036
(1446.4)
Ian Kennedy 4.9136
3.7952
(1150.6)
3.6695
(1086.5)
3.8789
(1006.2)
3.7109
(1287.8)
Roy Halladay 6.8226
3.4455
(1045.6)
3.3586
(1011.9)
3.4719
(1010.5)
3.4190
(1078.0)
Lucas Harrell 5.8568
4.7095
(1045.0)
3.9130
(1462.1)
4.6653
(1006.8)
4.7554
(1075.1)
Josh Johnson 6.1967
3.9339
(995.9)
3.3952
(1123.5)
4.1827
(862.7)
3.6846
(1125.7)
Joe Blanton 6.0377
4.1993
(1325.3)
4.5782
(967.7)
3.9161
(1438.4)
4.4896
(1202.0)
Ryan Vogelsong 5.7299
3.9001
(1009.0)
3.3155
(1185.6)
4.1159
(862.3)
3.6836
(1151.4)
Edinson Volquez 5.7065
4.1055
(1500.9)
4.3970
(1114.0)
4.1272
(1407.7)
4.0830
(1587.2)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Edwin Jackson 3.9375 4.9791 1066.3
2 Jeremy Hellickson 4.0791 5.1724 1049.5
3 Barry Zito 4.4979 5.7375 954.7
4 Ervin Santana 4.7215 3.2844 950.4
5 Dan Haren 3.6861 4.6680 941.1
6 Aníbal Sánchez 4.1377 2.5714 921.7
7 Clay Buchholz 4.2812 1.7446 917.7
8 Tyler Chatwood 5.3407 3.1527 884.1
9 Hisashi Iwakuma 3.9994 2.6631 870.8
10 Philip Humber 4.8879 7.9024 866.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jeremy Hellickson 3.2466 5.1724 1510.9
2 Joe Saunders 3.9880 5.2623 1146.8
3 R.A. Dickey 3.1148 4.2062 1146.4
4 John Lackey 5.0670 3.5176 1108.8
5 Brandon Maurer 3.7669 6.3000 1068.3
6 Aaron Harang 3.8532 5.4000 1046.1
7 Francisco Liriano 4.7079 3.0186 1042.3
8 José Fernández 3.7669 2.1892 989.8
9 Wade Davis 3.8445 5.3202 988.8
10 Scott Diamond 3.8436 5.4275 983.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hisashi Iwakuma 4.1396 2.6631 1077.3
2 Dan Haren 3.4721 4.6680 1024.2
3 Clay Buchholz 4.3976 1.7446 1006.9
4 Clayton Kershaw 3.1608 1.8305 996.8
5 Matt Harvey 3.9077 2.2710 968.9
6 Edwin Jackson 3.9698 4.9791 964.9
7 Dylan Axelrod 4.2777 5.6805 958.3
8 Philip Humber 4.5212 7.9024 936.0
9 José Fernández 3.7888 2.1892 931.0
10 Aníbal Sánchez 4.0455 2.5714 926.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jeremy Hellickson 3.7792 5.1724 1335.8
2 Edwin Jackson 3.9047 4.9791 1160.6
3 Ervin Santana 5.0477 3.2844 1154.5
4 Barry Zito 4.3110 5.7375 1122.2
5 Joe Saunders 4.3169 5.2623 1119.0
6 Matt Cain 2.9900 4.0036 1089.0
7 Jeff Samardzija 3.6213 4.3385 1038.7
8 Jason Hammel 3.7218 4.9737 1021.1
9 Scott Kazmir 5.9785 4.0443 1018.0
10 John Lackey 5.2441 3.5176 1017.0

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Francisco Liriano 4.7079 3.8012 3.0186 1042.3 301.0 741.3
2 R.A. Dickey 3.1148 4.0183 4.2062 1146.4 489.0 657.3
3 Yu Darvish 3.9429 3.3799 2.8331 828.8 181.7 647.1
4 Tyson Ross 4.8308 3.9111 3.1680 775.4 207.9 567.6
5 Zack Greinke 3.7418 3.1800 2.6341 705.1 154.3 550.8
6 Wily Peralta 3.6917 4.5715 4.3691 643.0 102.9 540.1
7 Brad Peacock 3.7278 5.3608 5.1840 576.9 56.2 520.7
8 Paul Clemens 3.7669 5.5657 5.4000 567.6 53.3 514.4
9 Scott Feldman 4.7284 4.1041 3.8642 560.9 68.9 492.0
10 Jeremy Hellickson 3.2466 4.0791 5.1724 1510.9 1049.5 461.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Clayton Kershaw 3.1608 2.8577 1.8305 996.8 632.4 364.4
2 Kyle Lohse 4.2701 3.9473 3.3523 552.3 213.0 339.3
3 C.J. Wilson 4.0356 3.7655 3.3909 376.4 40.1 336.3
4 Mark Buehrle 4.8264 4.6056 4.1538 385.4 106.1 279.4
5 Wade Miley 4.3312 4.1155 3.5526 462.5 196.7 265.8
6 Jeremy Guthrie 4.7743 4.5867 4.0394 454.7 196.0 258.6
7 Justin Grimm 4.4354 5.1187 5.9694 780.8 522.2 258.6
8 Mat Latos 3.8346 3.6499 3.1614 388.2 139.0 249.2
9 Jordan Zimmermann 3.7758 3.5974 3.2484 255.0 15.8 239.2
10 Jerome Williams 3.7619 4.1630 4.5709 758.2 537.7 220.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Nick Tepesch 3.7669 4.8193 4.8387 606.9 142.5 464.4
2 Corey Kluber 5.4105 4.7471 3.8484 694.8 345.3 349.5
3 André Rienzo 3.7669 5.0458 4.8214 368.4 26.6 341.9
4 Matt Cain 2.9900 3.3241 4.0036 1089.0 767.8 321.2
5 Todd Redmond 6.3670 5.3089 4.3247 525.9 211.7 314.1
6 Jered Weaver 3.0148 3.4118 3.2657 424.9 117.0 307.9
7 Jeremy Hellickson 3.7792 4.0791 5.1724 1335.8 1049.5 286.2
8 Gio Gonzalez 3.0150 3.2689 3.3578 624.1 343.6 280.5
9 Jeff Samardzija 3.6213 3.8244 4.3385 1038.7 772.2 266.6
10 Joe Saunders 4.3169 4.5491 5.2623 1119.0 856.0 262.9

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Barry Zito 1.7025
1.4083
(212.9)
1.3687
(212.8)
1.4386
(185.3)
1.3780
(239.5)
Justin Verlander 1.3145
1.1294
(223.0)
1.0751
(236.4)
1.1564
(184.1)
1.1026
(260.2)
CC Sabathia 1.3697
1.2069
(198.6)
1.2011
(167.7)
1.2028
(188.6)
1.2111
(207.0)
Joe Saunders 1.6011
1.3779
(228.9)
1.3413
(226.2)
1.3956
(202.0)
1.3600
(254.6)
Ian Kennedy 1.3952
1.2376
(169.6)
1.2285
(145.2)
1.2432
(153.2)
1.2320
(184.7)
Wade Davis 1.6773
1.3909
(211.6)
1.3034
(241.1)
1.4052
(193.5)
1.3764
(228.9)
Lucas Harrell 1.7050
1.4959
(187.4)
1.3822
(239.6)
1.4727
(193.1)
1.5199
(179.9)
Josh Johnson 1.6598
1.2926
(162.5)
1.2307
(171.0)
1.3233
(144.9)
1.2617
(179.5)
Joe Blanton 1.6131
1.2435
(260.0)
1.3136
(192.8)
1.2213
(264.4)
1.2663
(254.3)
Matt Harvey 0.9308
1.3282
(235.6)
1.2446
(205.4)
1.3216
(241.4)
1.3350
(231.0)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hisashi Iwakuma 1.2820 1.0061 190.5
2 John Lackey 1.4448 1.1567 180.6
3 José Fernández 1.2969 0.9788 178.5
4 Chris Archer 1.5222 1.1269 178.1
5 Edwin Jackson 1.2940 1.4601 172.6
6 Dylan Axelrod 1.4272 1.6597 169.1
7 Edinson Volquez 1.4253 1.5851 167.7
8 Max Scherzer 1.2259 0.9705 166.7
9 Ervin Santana 1.3891 1.1422 164.0
10 Scott Kazmir 1.6102 1.3228 155.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Max Scherzer 1.3041 0.9705 265.4
2 Hisashi Iwakuma 1.2903 1.0061 232.2
3 John Lackey 1.4611 1.1567 224.3
4 José Fernández 1.2778 0.9788 192.7
5 Yu Darvish 1.2952 1.0731 173.2
6 Tyson Ross 1.5053 1.1520 169.9
7 Dylan Axelrod 1.3947 1.6597 164.8
8 Ryan Vogelsong 1.2537 1.5627 151.8
9 Vance Worley 1.3741 1.9932 148.6
10 Tyler Cloyd 1.2837 1.7901 147.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hisashi Iwakuma 1.3166 1.0061 233.5
2 Dylan Axelrod 1.3443 1.6597 208.8
3 José Fernández 1.2969 0.9788 188.8
4 Edinson Volquez 1.3874 1.5851 185.4
5 Clayton Kershaw 1.1451 0.9153 171.5
6 Chris Archer 1.4863 1.1269 167.2
7 Edwin Jackson 1.2865 1.4601 166.7
8 Ervin Santana 1.3709 1.1422 161.4
9 Vance Worley 1.3692 1.9932 155.6
10 Tyler Cloyd 1.2894 1.7901 152.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Lackey 1.5118 1.1567 222.3
2 Scott Kazmir 1.6876 1.3228 198.5
3 Max Scherzer 1.2748 0.9705 196.4
4 Alex Torres 1.8257 0.8966 194.3
5 Chris Archer 1.5595 1.1269 190.7
6 Edwin Jackson 1.3016 1.4601 177.1
7 Jeff Samardzija 1.2249 1.3479 175.9
8 Corey Kluber 1.6160 1.2624 172.8
9 Ervin Santana 1.4077 1.1422 168.5
10 Neal Cotts 1.7668 0.9474 167.3

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Max Scherzer 1.3041 1.2259 0.9705 265.4 166.7 98.7
2 Yu Darvish 1.2952 1.2274 1.0731 173.2 82.7 90.5
3 Francisco Liriano 1.4062 1.3217 1.2236 110.9 28.0 82.9
4 Scott Feldman 1.3802 1.3124 1.1835 136.9 55.3 81.6
5 Wily Peralta 1.2871 1.5233 1.4182 118.0 39.4 78.6
6 Ricky Nolasco 1.3543 1.3023 1.2090 107.7 31.1 76.6
7 Rick Porcello 1.4378 1.3742 1.2825 102.4 26.3 76.1
8 Andrew Cashner 1.3271 1.2646 1.1314 126.9 54.6 72.3
9 T.J. McFarland 1.2778 1.5587 1.4866 74.5 5.4 69.1
10 Tyson Ross 1.5053 1.4102 1.1520 169.9 101.9 68.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Tillman 1.4026 1.3560 1.2213 118.6 66.5 52.1
2 Clayton Kershaw 1.1451 1.1046 0.9153 171.5 121.1 50.5
3 Kyle Lohse 1.2879 1.2454 1.1678 63.8 17.4 46.4
4 Justin Grimm 1.3805 1.4989 1.5714 102.5 56.8 45.7
5 Erik Bedard 1.3535 1.4360 1.4834 113.2 68.5 44.7
6 Hisashi Iwakuma 1.3166 1.2820 1.0061 233.5 190.5 43.1
7 Jeff Locke 1.3061 1.3811 1.3828 83.6 41.0 42.6
8 Dylan Axelrod 1.3443 1.4272 1.6597 208.8 169.1 39.7
9 Zach McAllister 1.3381 1.4167 1.3623 37.7 0.9 36.8
10 Tim Hudson 1.3483 1.3018 1.1878 63.9 30.9 32.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Corey Kluber 1.6160 1.4811 1.2624 172.8 98.9 73.9
2 André Rienzo 1.2778 1.5425 1.4821 68.4 1.1 67.3
3 Jeff Samardzija 1.2249 1.2774 1.3479 175.9 115.6 60.3
4 Garrett Richards 1.6204 1.5138 1.3448 127.8 70.1 57.8
5 Nick Tepesch 1.2778 1.4371 1.3656 64.0 6.3 57.6
6 Tyson Ross 1.5278 1.4102 1.1520 154.4 101.9 52.5
7 Shelby Miller 1.4846 1.3998 1.2058 151.2 99.7 51.5
8 Brad Peacock 1.7419 1.5884 1.3800 106.8 55.6 51.1
9 Tom Koehler 1.6028 1.5054 1.3566 106.3 55.7 50.5
10 Jered Weaver 1.0837 1.1486 1.1404 79.9 30.3 49.6