2018 Fantasy Projection Evaluation

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2018, excluding batters with fewer than 300 PA and pitchers with fewer than 200 BF. Limited to 5x5 categories, with playing time (PA/BF) split out from rates.

Summary

Batting

System PA HR SB R RBI AVG
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF SO W SV ERA WHIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Everybody Missed for Plate Appearances (PA)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Juan Soto 494
1
(493.0)
100
(394.0)
1
(493.0)
100
(394.0)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jesús Aguilar 243 566 322.9
2 Wil Myers 632 343 288.6
3 Max Muncy 195 481 286.0
4 Robinson Canó 623 348 275.0
5 Brian Anderson 402 670 268.1
6 Jurickson Profar 344 594 249.6
7 Niko Goodrum 247 492 244.8
8 Miguel Rojas 287 528 241.2
9 Adam Eaton 597 370 226.8
10 Nick Ahmed 338 564 225.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brian Anderson 253 670 417.0
2 Miguel Andujar 211 606 395.0
3 Ronald Acuña Jr. 100 487 387.0
4 Gleyber Torres 100 484 384.0
5 Scott Kingery 100 484 384.0
6 Daniel Palka 100 449 349.0
7 Ozzie Albies 337 684 347.0
8 Rhys Hoskins 313 660 347.0
9 Matt Olson 320 660 340.0
10 Jeimer Candelario 279 619 340.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jesús Aguilar 13 566 552.9
2 Max Muncy 1 481 480.0
3 Niko Goodrum 14 492 477.7
4 Daniel Palka 13 449 436.1
5 Brian Anderson 239 670 431.3
6 Ronald Guzmán 19 428 408.6
7 José Bautista 1 399 398.0
8 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 12 396 383.5
9 Jurickson Profar 230 594 364.1
10 Harrison Bader 69 427 358.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Wil Myers 648 343 305.0
2 Willy Adames 590 323 267.0
3 Robinson Canó 614 348 266.0
4 Jorge Polanco 577 333 244.0
5 Orlando Arcia 599 366 233.0
6 Nick Ahmed 335 564 229.0
7 Elvis Andrus 656 428 228.0
8 Jay Bruce 583 361 222.0
9 Daniel Murphy 565 351 214.0
10 Adam Eaton 583 370 213.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Scott Kingery 100 498 484 384.0 14.1 369.9
2 Ronald Acuña Jr. 100 513 487 387.0 26.4 360.6
3 Ozzie Albies 337 652 684 347.0 31.5 315.5
4 Rhys Hoskins 313 619 660 347.0 40.8 306.2
5 Jeimer Candelario 279 563 619 340.0 55.8 284.2
6 Yoán Moncada 329 601 650 321.0 49.3 271.7
7 Amed Rosario 295 565 592 297.0 27.1 269.9
8 Jake Bauers 100 367 388 288.0 21.2 266.8
9 Gleyber Torres 100 364 484 384.0 120.4 263.6
10 Matt Olson 320 570 660 340.0 89.6 250.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 José Bautista 1 282 399 398.0 116.5 281.5
2 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 12 292 396 383.5 103.8 279.8
3 Willy Adames 32 311 323 290.6 11.8 278.8
4 Ronald Guzmán 19 284 428 408.6 143.8 264.8
5 David Fletcher 1 240 307 306.0 66.5 239.5
6 Daniel Palka 13 248 449 436.1 200.6 235.6
7 Harrison Bader 69 304 427 358.4 123.2 235.2
8 Jake Cave 32 267 309 276.6 42.3 234.3
9 Niko Goodrum 14 247 492 477.7 244.8 232.8
10 Jesús Aguilar 13 243 566 552.9 322.9 229.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Willy Adames 590 311 323 267.0 11.8 255.2
2 Cory Spangenberg 527 316 329 198.0 12.9 185.1
3 Jake Bauers 582 367 388 194.0 21.2 172.8
4 Jake Cave 501 267 309 192.0 42.3 149.7
5 Yairo Muñoz 488 342 329 159.0 12.9 146.1
6 Hernán Pérez 474 330 334 140.0 3.9 136.1
7 Chris Owings 472 345 309 163.0 36.1 126.9
8 Guillermo Heredia 462 328 337 125.0 8.9 116.1
9 Leonys Martin 507 396 353 154.0 43.4 110.6
10 David Fletcher 480 240 307 173.0 66.5 106.5

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jesús Aguilar 0.0975
0.0628
(19.8)
0.0647
(18.4)
0.0641
(19.1)
0.0615
(20.4)
Freddie Freeman 0.0467
0.0763
(20.7)
0.0698
(16.5)
0.0771
(21.2)
0.0754
(20.2)
Chris Davis 0.0567
0.1119
(28.7)
0.0969
(21.1)
0.1123
(28.8)
0.1115
(28.5)
Christian Yelich 0.0816
0.0491
(21.3)
0.0375
(28.5)
0.0525
(19.2)
0.0457
(23.5)
José Ramírez 0.0774
0.0393
(26.7)
0.0381
(27.2)
0.0403
(26.2)
0.0383
(27.4)
Cody Bellinger 0.0611
0.0986
(23.6)
0.0924
(20.0)
0.0959
(21.8)
0.1013
(25.3)
Joey Votto 0.0296
0.0646
(21.6)
0.0673
(23.7)
0.0674
(23.3)
0.0617
(19.9)
Max Muncy 0.1316
0.0428
(42.8)
0.0408
(43.5)
0.0409
(43.8)
0.0447
(41.8)
David Peralta 0.0685
0.0381
(18.8)
0.0384
(18.3)
0.0381
(18.9)
0.0382
(18.7)
Matt Carpenter 0.0876
0.0518
(24.3)
0.0582
(19.7)
0.0509
(25.1)
0.0528
(23.7)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1538 0.0913 43.9
2 Juan Soto 0.0283 0.0696 20.5
3 Addison Russell 0.0522 0.0154 17.0
4 Adam Jones 0.0583 0.0305 16.9
5 Johan Camargo 0.0215 0.0529 16.5
6 Mookie Betts 0.0473 0.0737 16.3
7 Kris Bryant 0.0809 0.0456 16.1
8 Jed Lowrie 0.0254 0.0488 16.0
9 Francisco Lindor 0.0467 0.0679 15.9
10 Eugenio Suárez 0.0609 0.0870 15.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Daniel Palka 0.0488 0.1023 23.8
2 Matt Olson 0.1014 0.0692 21.5
3 Eugenio Suárez 0.0544 0.0870 19.5
4 Willson Contreras 0.0631 0.0280 19.3
5 Mookie Betts 0.0437 0.0737 18.2
6 Mike Trout 0.0811 0.1108 17.9
7 Shohei Ohtani 0.0488 0.0973 17.7
8 C.J. Cron 0.0514 0.0831 17.5
9 Francisco Lindor 0.0443 0.0679 17.3
10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.0488 0.0831 16.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1502 0.0913 41.2
2 Gleyber Torres 0.0338 0.0762 20.7
3 Juan Soto 0.0288 0.0696 20.3
4 Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.0467 0.0831 17.9
5 Addison Russell 0.0540 0.0154 17.8
6 Adam Jones 0.0598 0.0305 17.7
7 Daniel Palka 0.0632 0.1023 17.7
8 Eugenio Suárez 0.0587 0.0870 17.3
9 Anthony Rizzo 0.0760 0.0505 16.7
10 Johan Camargo 0.0230 0.0529 15.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1576 0.0913 46.6
2 Mookie Betts 0.0426 0.0737 19.2
3 Matt Olson 0.0976 0.0692 18.7
4 Francisco Lindor 0.0442 0.0679 17.7
5 Matt Chapman 0.0882 0.0596 17.6
6 Jed Lowrie 0.0232 0.0488 17.5
7 Johan Camargo 0.0200 0.0529 17.3
8 Kris Bryant 0.0827 0.0456 16.9
9 Addison Russell 0.0503 0.0154 16.2
10 Adam Jones 0.0568 0.0305 16.0

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.0488 0.0103 0.0133 14.2 1.3 12.9
2 David Fletcher 0.0488 0.0092 0.0039 13.9 1.6 12.3
3 Joey Gallo 0.1155 0.1370 0.1365 11.9 0.2 11.7
4 Amed Rosario 0.0392 0.0208 0.0204 11.3 0.1 11.2
5 Daniel Palka 0.0488 0.0717 0.1023 23.8 13.8 10.0
6 Rosell Herrera 0.0488 0.0164 0.0045 13.5 3.5 10.0
7 Mike Trout 0.0811 0.0980 0.1108 17.9 7.9 9.9
8 José A. Martínez 0.0522 0.0381 0.0391 8.0 0.7 7.3
9 Christian Yelich 0.0375 0.0491 0.0816 28.5 21.3 7.2
10 Joey Wendle 0.0380 0.0262 0.0174 11.4 4.7 6.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Gleyber Torres 0.0338 0.0481 0.0762 20.7 13.7 7.0
2 Joey Gallo 0.1294 0.1370 0.1365 4.3 0.2 4.1
3 Daniel Palka 0.0632 0.0717 0.1023 17.7 13.8 3.9
4 Manny Machado 0.0755 0.0706 0.0694 4.1 0.7 3.3
5 Albert Pujols 0.0568 0.0503 0.0471 4.6 1.5 3.2
6 Rhys Hoskins 0.0929 0.0880 0.0821 6.8 3.7 3.1
7 Charlie Blackmon 0.0546 0.0586 0.0586 3.1 0.1 2.9
8 Trevor Story 0.0739 0.0781 0.0853 7.7 4.8 2.9
9 Rafael Devers 0.0518 0.0575 0.0634 5.9 3.0 2.9
10 Joe Mauer 0.0276 0.0225 0.0149 6.7 4.1 2.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Yonder Alonso 0.0782 0.0647 0.0578 11.6 3.8 7.8
2 Aaron Judge 0.1319 0.1217 0.1015 15.1 9.9 5.1
3 Joey Gallo 0.1453 0.1370 0.1365 5.0 0.2 4.8
4 J.D. Martinez 0.1095 0.1025 0.1000 6.1 1.5 4.6
5 Matt Chapman 0.0882 0.0823 0.0596 17.6 13.9 3.7
6 Trey Mancini 0.0651 0.0595 0.0553 6.1 2.6 3.6
7 Matt Olson 0.0976 0.0923 0.0692 18.7 15.1 3.6
8 Mookie Betts 0.0426 0.0473 0.0737 19.2 16.3 2.9
9 Kyle Schwarber 0.1076 0.1021 0.0893 9.3 6.4 2.8
10 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1576 0.1538 0.0913 46.6 43.9 2.7

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Billy Hamilton 0.2482
0.3856
(71.1)
0.3813
(70.5)
0.3540
(55.0)
0.4167
(86.9)
Francisco Lindor 0.1397
0.0904
(43.8)
0.0938
(38.9)
0.0843
(46.4)
0.0966
(41.2)
Trevor Story 0.1888
0.0819
(76.4)
0.0708
(81.6)
0.0737
(80.1)
0.0909
(72.3)
Yasiel Puig 0.1500
0.0761
(37.1)
0.0781
(34.7)
0.0726
(37.4)
0.0797
(36.6)
Jose Iglesias 0.1442
0.0717
(38.1)
0.0661
(39.2)
0.0761
(34.8)
0.0672
(41.4)
Ender Inciarte 0.1647
0.1122
(41.0)
0.1047
(43.8)
0.1060
(43.3)
0.1183
(38.7)
Eduardo Núñez 0.0642
0.1899
(58.3)
0.1935
(61.7)
0.1735
(51.4)
0.2069
(65.5)
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.1441
0.0557
(52.4)
0.0611
(47.8)
0.0517
(53.1)
0.0597
(51.7)
Tim Anderson 0.2185
0.1300
(59.4)
0.1026
(74.1)
0.1158
(66.4)
0.1452
(51.9)
Whit Merrifield 0.2239
0.1769
(40.0)
0.1615
(48.6)
0.1683
(44.2)
0.1854
(35.8)
Javier Báez 0.1654
0.0990
(49.0)
0.0870
(54.7)
0.0872
(54.9)
0.1111
(42.9)
Elvis Andrus 0.0485
0.1428
(36.2)
0.1419
(37.2)
0.1368
(34.8)
0.1491
(37.8)
Trea Turner 0.2129
0.3186
(71.2)
0.3190
(73.8)
0.3070
(64.5)
0.3309
(78.3)
Michael A. Taylor 0.3038
0.1828
(50.3)
0.1633
(56.6)
0.1641
(56.5)
0.2019
(43.9)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Ramírez 0.1256 0.1799 44.6
2 Teoscar Hernández 0.1433 0.0500 43.8
3 Leonys Martin 0.2004 0.0824 38.3
4 Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.2182 0.1311 37.7
5 Christian Yelich 0.0733 0.1189 35.9
6 Cameron Maybin 0.1951 0.0952 34.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Ramírez 0.1111 0.1799 52.5
2 Amed Rosario 0.1077 0.1832 48.5
3 Mallex Smith 0.1771 0.2532 44.8
4 Paul Goldschmidt 0.1038 0.0359 42.5
5 Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.0566 0.1311 39.4
6 Yolmer Sánchez 0.0463 0.0933 35.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 José Ramírez 0.1062 0.1799 56.3
2 Teoscar Hernández 0.1390 0.0500 42.9
3 Christian Yelich 0.0627 0.1189 41.1
4 Amed Rosario 0.1247 0.1832 38.7
5 Leonys Martin 0.1818 0.0824 32.7
6 Ian Kinsler 0.0793 0.1322 32.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.2374 0.1311 45.8
2 Teoscar Hernández 0.1478 0.0500 44.8
3 Leonys Martin 0.2193 0.0824 44.0
4 Jose Altuve 0.1753 0.0914 42.9
5 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2961 0.2174 39.1
6 Cameron Maybin 0.2083 0.0952 38.7

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mallex Smith 0.1771 0.2764 0.2532 44.8 7.5 37.4
2 Niko Goodrum 0.0612 0.1275 0.1121 28.2 2.8 25.4
3 Miguel Andujar 0.0769 0.0418 0.0163 32.9 9.6 23.3
4 Adam Engel 0.0946 0.1922 0.1600 33.2 10.5 22.8
5 Colin Moran 0.0612 0.0173 0.0000 25.5 3.6 21.9
6 Charlie Blackmon 0.1145 0.0893 0.0659 29.3 9.6 19.7
7 Yolmer Sánchez 0.0463 0.0750 0.0933 35.4 18.5 16.9
8 Amed Rosario 0.1077 0.1364 0.1832 48.5 33.4 15.1
9 Harrison Bader 0.0690 0.1075 0.1389 32.6 17.5 15.1
10 Tim Anderson 0.1026 0.1300 0.2185 74.1 59.4 14.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 José Ramírez 0.1062 0.1256 0.1799 56.3 44.6 11.7
2 Lorenzo Cain 0.1051 0.1249 0.1442 28.6 17.9 10.7
3 Ian Desmond 0.1057 0.1239 0.1439 27.9 18.3 9.7
4 Cody Bellinger 0.0699 0.0875 0.0892 16.6 7.1 9.5
5 Charlie Blackmon 0.0995 0.0893 0.0659 18.5 9.6 8.9
6 Martín Maldonado 0.0381 0.0194 0.0000 12.6 4.0 8.6
7 Jonathan Villar 0.2408 0.2592 0.2536 10.2 2.0 8.1
8 Guillermo Heredia 0.0563 0.0366 0.0235 8.7 1.2 7.5
9 Miguel Andujar 0.0514 0.0418 0.0163 17.1 9.6 7.5
10 Tim Anderson 0.1158 0.1300 0.2185 66.4 59.4 7.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Billy Hamilton 0.4167 0.3856 0.2482 86.9 71.1 15.8
2 Mallex Smith 0.3008 0.2764 0.2532 19.3 7.5 11.8
3 Jose Altuve 0.1753 0.1531 0.0914 42.9 31.2 11.7
4 Delino DeShields 0.2640 0.2325 0.1980 21.1 9.8 11.3
5 Wilmer Difo 0.1538 0.1295 0.0935 22.0 12.1 9.9
6 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2961 0.2791 0.2174 39.1 30.7 8.4
7 Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.2374 0.2182 0.1311 45.8 37.7 8.1
8 Eduardo Núñez 0.2069 0.1899 0.0642 65.5 58.3 7.2
9 Trea Turner 0.3309 0.3186 0.2129 78.3 71.2 7.1
10 Yolmer Sánchez 0.0672 0.0750 0.0933 25.4 18.5 6.9

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Didi Gregorius 0.1564
0.1172
(21.6)
0.1168
(23.3)
0.1181
(20.5)
0.1164
(22.7)
Mookie Betts 0.2101
0.1553
(32.9)
0.1469
(39.7)
0.1583
(30.4)
0.1522
(35.4)
Matt Chapman 0.1623
0.1233
(23.3)
0.1183
(28.0)
0.1199
(24.7)
0.1267
(21.9)
Chris Davis 0.0766
0.1342
(30.7)
0.1374
(31.0)
0.1335
(30.9)
0.1349
(30.5)
Christian Yelich 0.1813
0.1424
(24.5)
0.1288
(35.0)
0.1441
(22.7)
0.1408
(26.3)
Javier Báez 0.1566
0.1210
(22.2)
0.1260
(20.6)
0.1177
(23.6)
0.1243
(20.8)
Joey Votto 0.1075
0.1431
(22.9)
0.1426
(21.0)
0.1467
(25.8)
0.1394
(19.9)
Max Muncy 0.1559
0.1063
(23.3)
0.1116
(22.0)
0.0995
(26.0)
0.1131
(20.5)
Ozzie Albies 0.1535
0.1207
(21.6)
0.1276
(18.7)
0.1209
(20.7)
0.1205
(22.5)
Adam Jones 0.0881
0.1256
(23.8)
0.1263
(22.6)
0.1279
(25.8)
0.1234
(21.7)
Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.1602
0.1177
(20.1)
0.1231
(18.7)
0.1126
(22.1)
0.1229
(18.1)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Juan Soto 0.0920 0.1559 30.9
2 Anthony Rizzo 0.1481 0.1113 25.3
3 Francisco Lindor 0.1414 0.1732 22.7
4 Tommy Pham 0.1407 0.1789 21.1
5 Victor Martinez 0.1028 0.0630 20.8
6 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1723 0.1447 20.4
7 Jake Cave 0.1090 0.1748 19.9
8 Charlie Culberson 0.0838 0.1460 19.6
9 Greg Bird 0.1341 0.0740 19.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Francisco Lindor 0.1333 0.1732 30.7
2 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.1448 0.1054 22.3
3 Andrew Benintendi 0.1257 0.1558 20.9
4 Cameron Maybin 0.1367 0.0833 19.9
5 Aaron Hicks 0.1223 0.1549 19.8
6 José A. Martínez 0.1412 0.1085 18.5
7 Eric Hosmer 0.1346 0.1064 18.1
8 Nick Castellanos 0.1054 0.1298 17.5
9 Miguel Rojas 0.1176 0.0833 17.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Juan Soto 0.0918 0.1559 30.5
2 Anthony Rizzo 0.1533 0.1113 29.4
3 Victor Martinez 0.1136 0.0630 26.9
4 Tommy Pham 0.1348 0.1789 23.9
5 Manny Machado 0.1498 0.1185 23.8
6 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1759 0.1447 23.7
7 Amed Rosario 0.0910 0.1284 20.7
8 Greg Bird 0.1364 0.0740 20.1
9 Brian Anderson 0.0977 0.1299 20.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Francisco Lindor 0.1351 0.1732 28.3
2 Anthony Rizzo 0.1429 0.1113 21.1
3 Charlie Culberson 0.0827 0.1460 20.3
4 Jake Cave 0.1098 0.1748 20.0
5 Tommy Pham 0.1466 0.1789 18.4
6 Greg Bird 0.1317 0.0740 18.0
7 Cameron Maybin 0.1292 0.0833 17.7
8 Eric Hosmer 0.1317 0.1064 17.3
9 Aaron Hicks 0.1253 0.1549 17.1

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 José A. Martínez 0.1412 0.1178 0.1085 18.5 6.3 12.2
2 Christian Yelich 0.1288 0.1424 0.1813 35.0 24.5 10.6
3 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.1448 0.1242 0.1054 22.3 11.8 10.5
4 Miguel Rojas 0.1176 0.0973 0.0833 17.4 8.1 9.3
5 Nick Castellanos 0.1054 0.1154 0.1298 17.5 8.9 8.6
6 Rosell Herrera 0.1231 0.0924 0.0828 11.8 3.3 8.5
7 Andrew Benintendi 0.1257 0.1352 0.1558 20.9 12.8 8.0
8 Francisco Lindor 0.1333 0.1414 0.1732 30.7 22.7 8.0
9 Michael Brantley 0.1183 0.1282 0.1410 15.3 7.3 8.0
10 Delino DeShields 0.1607 0.1394 0.1323 10.6 3.3 7.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Albert Pujols 0.1201 0.1039 0.1004 10.9 2.4 8.6
2 Manny Machado 0.1498 0.1410 0.1185 23.8 16.9 6.9
3 Billy Hamilton 0.1103 0.1232 0.1331 11.4 4.8 6.6
4 Nomar Mazara 0.1299 0.1192 0.1138 9.8 3.6 6.3
5 Victor Martinez 0.1136 0.1028 0.0630 26.9 20.8 6.0
6 Scooter Gennett 0.1060 0.1161 0.1348 16.9 11.1 5.8
7 Charlie Blackmon 0.1541 0.1634 0.1710 10.2 4.4 5.7
8 Martín Maldonado 0.1080 0.0960 0.0965 5.6 0.3 5.3
9 Brian Anderson 0.0977 0.1064 0.1299 20.0 14.9 5.1
10 Nick Ahmed 0.0937 0.1036 0.1082 6.8 1.9 5.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Nick Castellanos 0.1057 0.1154 0.1298 16.3 8.9 7.4
2 Francisco Lindor 0.1351 0.1414 0.1732 28.3 22.7 5.6
3 Miguel Rojas 0.1089 0.0973 0.0833 13.6 8.1 5.5
4 Dansby Swanson 0.1188 0.1079 0.0957 12.4 7.2 5.2
5 Tucker Barnhart 0.0764 0.0847 0.0958 10.1 5.1 5.0
6 Delino DeShields 0.1529 0.1394 0.1323 8.1 3.3 4.8
7 Martín Maldonado 0.0840 0.0960 0.0965 5.0 0.3 4.7
8 Gerardo Parra 0.1290 0.1178 0.1174 5.2 0.7 4.5
9 Mitch Moreland 0.1093 0.1177 0.1242 6.7 2.4 4.3
10 Xander Bogaerts 0.1441 0.1358 0.1241 11.7 7.5 4.2

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jesús Aguilar 0.1908
0.1400
(32.0)
0.1425
(28.1)
0.1298
(37.4)
0.1501
(26.7)
Xander Bogaerts 0.1776
0.1190
(37.3)
0.1133
(38.0)
0.1236
(34.2)
0.1144
(40.4)
Javier Báez 0.1721
0.1403
(24.2)
0.1319
(26.8)
0.1406
(23.6)
0.1400
(24.9)
Cody Bellinger 0.1203
0.1747
(30.8)
0.1568
(22.3)
0.1648
(25.0)
0.1845
(36.5)
Jed Lowrie 0.1456
0.1010
(34.2)
0.1016
(30.8)
0.1080
(29.0)
0.0940
(39.5)
Max Muncy 0.1642
0.1019
(32.7)
0.0930
(34.9)
0.1010
(32.8)
0.1028
(32.7)
Eugenio Suárez 0.1716
0.1280
(29.9)
0.1195
(32.4)
0.1217
(33.3)
0.1343
(26.5)
Christian Yelich 0.1690
0.1264
(31.4)
0.1192
(33.3)
0.1224
(33.6)
0.1305
(29.3)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.2223 0.1418 52.7
2 Johan Camargo 0.0993 0.1450 27.0
3 Chris Davis 0.1488 0.0939 25.7
4 Gleyber Torres 0.1133 0.1591 24.9
5 Nick Markakis 0.1031 0.1319 24.4
6 Juan Soto 0.0990 0.1417 23.9
7 Lorenzo Cain 0.1045 0.0613 23.2
8 Trey Mancini 0.1331 0.0912 23.0
9 Jurickson Profar 0.0974 0.1296 22.5
10 Addison Russell 0.1348 0.0817 22.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 J.D. Martinez 0.1602 0.2003 26.8
2 Eric Hosmer 0.1412 0.1019 25.7
3 Jurickson Profar 0.0882 0.1296 25.3
4 Lorenzo Cain 0.1034 0.0613 25.3
5 Brandon Crawford 0.1342 0.0909 25.0
6 Gregory Polanco 0.1064 0.1514 24.8
7 Trey Mancini 0.1312 0.0912 24.6
8 Starlin Castro 0.1220 0.0835 24.1
9 Willson Contreras 0.1444 0.0993 23.9
10 José Ramírez 0.1176 0.1504 23.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.2136 0.1418 47.1
2 Gleyber Torres 0.1069 0.1591 27.7
3 Chris Davis 0.1478 0.0939 25.5
4 Lorenzo Cain 0.1071 0.0613 25.3
5 Juan Soto 0.0987 0.1417 23.7
6 Nick Markakis 0.1034 0.1319 23.7
7 Trey Mancini 0.1329 0.0912 23.3
8 Johan Camargo 0.1068 0.1450 22.7
9 David Peralta 0.1127 0.1417 20.9
10 Willson Contreras 0.1417 0.0993 20.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Giancarlo Stanton 0.2310 0.1418 58.3
2 Johan Camargo 0.0919 0.1450 31.3
3 Paul Goldschmidt 0.1693 0.1203 29.3
4 Jurickson Profar 0.0915 0.1296 26.5
5 Brandon Crawford 0.1411 0.0909 26.0
6 Chris Davis 0.1497 0.0939 25.8
7 Nick Markakis 0.1027 0.1319 25.2
8 Ian Happ 0.1560 0.0952 25.1
9 José Ramírez 0.1213 0.1504 24.9
10 Rhys Hoskins 0.1888 0.1455 24.3

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Rosell Herrera 0.1174 0.0733 0.0662 15.1 0.4 14.7
2 Ian Desmond 0.1114 0.1387 0.1422 19.9 5.7 14.2
3 Yonder Alonso 0.1096 0.1367 0.1446 20.8 7.8 13.0
4 Manny Machado 0.1310 0.1531 0.1509 15.0 2.6 12.5
5 Whit Merrifield 0.1131 0.1002 0.0849 19.1 6.8 12.3
6 Joey Gallo 0.1333 0.1568 0.1594 15.8 4.9 10.9
7 J.D. Martinez 0.1602 0.1812 0.2003 26.8 16.1 10.7
8 Teoscar Hernández 0.1331 0.1202 0.1090 11.9 2.8 9.1
9 Eddie Rosario 0.1157 0.1339 0.1301 9.3 1.1 8.1
10 Yasiel Puig 0.1238 0.1464 0.1419 8.6 0.5 8.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Delino DeShields 0.0836 0.0641 0.0560 8.9 0.9 7.9
2 Corey Dickerson 0.1364 0.1242 0.1032 15.0 8.1 6.9
3 Nomar Mazara 0.1365 0.1472 0.1437 6.6 1.2 5.4
4 Jesús Aguilar 0.1298 0.1400 0.1908 37.4 32.0 5.3
5 Matt Kemp 0.1432 0.1545 0.1680 15.1 9.7 5.3
6 Carlos González 0.1492 0.1394 0.1270 8.6 3.3 5.3
7 Guillermo Heredia 0.0971 0.0821 0.0564 12.0 6.7 5.3
8 Scooter Gennett 0.1241 0.1328 0.1442 16.1 10.9 5.1
9 Billy Hamilton 0.0775 0.0702 0.0522 11.3 6.9 4.5
10 Khris Davis 0.1631 0.1703 0.1881 19.6 15.4 4.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.0498 0.0629 0.0612 10.6 2.4 8.2
2 Rhys Hoskins 0.1888 0.1761 0.1455 24.3 16.5 7.8
3 Paul Goldschmidt 0.1693 0.1572 0.1203 29.3 21.5 7.8
4 Albert Pujols 0.1737 0.1582 0.1285 19.3 11.9 7.3
5 Michael Conforto 0.1579 0.1457 0.1285 14.6 7.3 7.3
6 Brandon Crawford 0.1411 0.1283 0.0909 26.0 18.8 7.2
7 Carlos Correa 0.1881 0.1724 0.1389 20.0 13.0 7.0
8 Yangervis Solarte 0.1522 0.1382 0.1067 19.7 13.0 6.7
9 José Ramírez 0.1213 0.1301 0.1504 24.9 18.2 6.7
10 Kevin Pillar 0.0877 0.0986 0.1089 15.0 8.7 6.3

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Scooter Gennett 0.3099
0.2619
(32.3)
0.2735
(26.6)
0.2590
(34.8)
0.2649
(29.9)
Brian Dozier 0.2152
0.2571
(24.8)
0.2596
(24.8)
0.2569
(24.0)
0.2573
(25.5)
Mookie Betts 0.3462
0.2978
(31.3)
0.2860
(40.2)
0.2991
(31.1)
0.2964
(31.6)
Joey Wendle 0.2998
0.2405
(33.8)
0.2576
(25.9)
0.2399
(34.6)
0.2411
(33.0)
Trevor Story 0.2910
0.2457
(31.4)
0.2521
(28.9)
0.2517
(28.2)
0.2398
(34.7)
Mallex Smith 0.2958
0.2463
(28.4)
0.2583
(23.3)
0.2497
(27.1)
0.2428
(29.8)
Matt Chapman 0.2779
0.2256
(33.8)
0.2440
(24.1)
0.2264
(33.9)
0.2248
(33.8)
Bryce Harper 0.2491
0.2980
(32.1)
0.2877
(23.2)
0.3012
(33.7)
0.2947
(30.5)
Chris Davis 0.1681
0.2253
(28.5)
0.2340
(31.7)
0.2277
(29.2)
0.2229
(27.7)
Dexter Fowler 0.1799
0.2601
(25.9)
0.2612
(25.4)
0.2589
(25.2)
0.2613
(26.6)
Gary Sánchez 0.1858
0.2650
(28.6)
0.2766
(32.0)
0.2686
(29.6)
0.2614
(27.6)
Kole Calhoun 0.2077
0.2573
(25.9)
0.2552
(23.3)
0.2575
(25.4)
0.2571
(26.3)
J.D. Martinez 0.3304
0.2866
(30.2)
0.2902
(29.4)
0.2854
(31.6)
0.2878
(28.8)
Ben Zobrist 0.3055
0.2585
(25.8)
0.2575
(27.6)
0.2616
(24.7)
0.2554
(27.0)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Juan Soto 0.2319 0.2923 31.1
2 Kyle Seager 0.2665 0.2213 26.8
3 Carlos Correa 0.2942 0.2388 24.7
4 Mitch Haniger 0.2523 0.2852 24.3
5 Christian Yelich 0.2927 0.3258 23.3
6 Nick Markakis 0.2671 0.2970 22.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Christian Yelich 0.2870 0.3258 28.6
2 Nick Castellanos 0.2685 0.2984 23.8
3 Trey Mancini 0.2835 0.2423 22.9
4 Miguel Andujar 0.2646 0.2967 22.6
5 Kyle Seager 0.2624 0.2213 22.6
6 Anthony Rendon 0.2773 0.3081 21.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Juan Soto 0.2323 0.2923 31.4
2 Ian Desmond 0.2817 0.2360 26.0
3 Whit Merrifield 0.2728 0.3038 24.5
4 Mitch Haniger 0.2535 0.2852 24.2
5 Jesús Aguilar 0.2360 0.2744 23.8
6 Max Muncy 0.2179 0.2633 23.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Kyle Seager 0.2715 0.2213 30.5
2 Carlos Correa 0.2979 0.2388 26.8
3 Jonathan Lucroy 0.2977 0.2410 24.9
4 Christian Yelich 0.2893 0.3258 24.9
5 Javier Báez 0.2537 0.2904 24.8
6 Mitch Haniger 0.2511 0.2852 24.5

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Andrew Benintendi 0.2694 0.2836 0.2902 17.2 6.1 11.1
2 Jurickson Profar 0.2375 0.2602 0.2538 12.8 2.2 10.6
3 Nelson Cruz 0.2871 0.2667 0.2563 15.2 4.6 10.5
4 Rougned Odor 0.2411 0.2558 0.2532 9.2 0.0 9.2
5 Maikel Franco 0.2481 0.2651 0.2702 12.7 3.6 9.1
6 Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.2591 0.2746 0.2933 19.2 10.4 8.8
7 Mookie Betts 0.2860 0.2978 0.3462 40.2 31.3 8.8
8 Manny Machado 0.2746 0.2843 0.2975 19.9 11.2 8.7
9 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2989 0.2815 0.2680 15.1 6.4 8.7
10 Nick Castellanos 0.2685 0.2785 0.2984 23.8 15.3 8.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Cody Bellinger 0.2521 0.2623 0.2603 7.5 0.4 7.1
2 Trea Turner 0.2966 0.2883 0.2711 16.2 10.8 5.4
3 Nick Castellanos 0.2722 0.2785 0.2984 20.2 15.3 4.9
4 Lewis Brinson 0.2563 0.2443 0.1990 21.8 17.4 4.4
5 Marcell Ozuna 0.2943 0.2863 0.2801 6.7 2.3 4.4
6 Ozzie Albies 0.2722 0.2650 0.2613 4.9 0.7 4.2
7 Giancarlo Stanton 0.2864 0.2799 0.2658 12.0 8.1 3.9
8 Khris Davis 0.2437 0.2497 0.2465 4.2 0.4 3.9
9 Ian Desmond 0.2817 0.2746 0.2360 26.0 22.3 3.8
10 Nelson Cruz 0.2740 0.2667 0.2563 8.4 4.6 3.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Cody Bellinger 0.2724 0.2623 0.2603 6.5 0.4 6.1
2 Jonathan Lucroy 0.2977 0.2854 0.2410 24.9 19.0 6.0
3 Charlie Blackmon 0.3101 0.3029 0.2907 12.3 6.6 5.7
4 Johan Camargo 0.2483 0.2597 0.2716 13.1 7.6 5.5
5 Mike Trout 0.2901 0.2993 0.3121 14.5 9.4 5.0
6 Carlos González 0.2595 0.2699 0.2765 9.4 4.7 4.8
7 Khris Davis 0.2558 0.2497 0.2465 4.9 0.4 4.5
8 Yuli Gurriel 0.2769 0.2854 0.2905 8.8 4.4 4.4
9 Todd Frazier 0.2436 0.2352 0.2132 13.5 9.1 4.4
10 Freddy Galvis 0.2583 0.2526 0.2475 5.9 1.6 4.3

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Luis Perdomo 217
671
(453.7)
673
(456.0)
669
(452.4)
672
(455.0)
Andrew Heaney 749
383
(366.0)
310
(439.0)
386
(363.1)
380
(369.0)
Zach Davies 280
791
(511.0)
747
(467.0)
757
(477.1)
825
(545.0)
Jeff Samardzija 207
735
(527.8)
753
(546.0)
727
(519.6)
743
(536.0)
Johnny Cueto 214
751
(536.9)
648
(434.0)
761
(546.8)
741
(527.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Wade LeBlanc 274 662 387.6
2 Marcus Stroman 815 449 366.0
3 Daniel Norris 556 200 356.0
4 Jake Faria 629 281 348.1
5 Andrew Suárez 319 665 346.4
6 Michael Wacha 697 355 342.1
7 Carlos Martinez 861 521 340.0
8 Martín Pérez 737 397 339.7
9 Dylan Covey 228 542 314.3
10 Erasmo Ramírez 516 202 314.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Miles Mikolas 100 808 708.0
2 Andrew Suárez 100 665 565.0
3 Ryan Yarbrough 100 628 528.0
4 Brad Keller 100 583 483.0
5 Joey Lucchesi 100 548 448.0
6 Trevor Richards 100 547 447.0
7 Reynaldo López 360 799 439.0
8 Jaime Barria 100 537 437.0
9 Lucas Giolito 350 775 425.0
10 Walker Buehler 132 541 409.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Andrew Suárez 4 665 660.7
2 Wei-Yin Chen 39 572 532.5
3 Wade LeBlanc 149 662 513.2
4 Dylan Covey 40 542 501.6
5 Jaime Barria 40 537 496.6
6 Dereck Rodríguez 4 487 482.6
7 Shane Bieber 4 485 480.7
8 Bartolo Colon 159 628 469.4
9 Sam Gaviglio 85 548 462.7
10 Yovani Gallardo 4 422 417.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Conley 652 202 450.0
2 Daniel Norris 603 200 403.0
3 A.J. Cole 620 221 399.0
4 Ariel Jurado 634 241 393.0
5 Chris Volstad 600 215 385.0
6 Marcus Stroman 815 449 366.0
7 Jalen Beeks 587 223 364.0
8 Fernando Romero 609 247 362.0
9 Jake Faria 642 281 361.0
10 Mike Minor 281 640 359.0

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ryan Yarbrough 100 584 628 528.0 43.6 484.4
2 Miles Mikolas 100 579 808 708.0 229.1 478.9
3 Joey Lucchesi 100 456 548 448.0 92.2 355.8
4 Lucas Giolito 350 674 775 425.0 101.5 323.5
5 Chris Stratton 325 624 625 300.0 0.7 299.3
6 Eric Lauer 100 384 504 404.0 119.7 284.3
7 Trevor Richards 100 383 547 447.0 163.5 283.5
8 Ryan Borucki 100 375 415 315.0 40.1 274.9
9 Brad Keller 100 366 583 483.0 216.5 266.5
10 Shane Bieber 100 365 485 385.0 120.4 264.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Shane Bieber 4 365 485 480.7 120.4 360.4
2 Andrew Suárez 4 319 665 660.7 346.4 314.4
3 Heath Fillmyer 41 327 344 302.6 16.8 285.8
4 David Hess 42 324 454 411.9 130.4 281.4
5 Adam Plutko 41 318 326 284.9 8.5 276.5
6 Yovani Gallardo 4 280 422 417.6 142.3 275.3
7 Dereck Rodríguez 4 272 487 482.6 214.8 267.8
8 Austin Gomber 41 305 334 293.4 28.7 264.7
9 Jaime Barria 40 304 537 496.6 232.8 263.8
10 Sam Gaviglio 85 339 548 462.7 208.9 253.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Volstad 600 302 215 385.0 87.2 297.8
2 Ariel Jurado 634 338 241 393.0 96.5 296.5
3 Pablo López 601 321 247 354.0 73.8 280.2
4 Jalen Beeks 587 314 223 364.0 90.8 273.2
5 Adam Plutko 594 318 326 268.0 8.5 259.5
6 Heath Fillmyer 613 327 344 269.0 16.8 252.2
7 Fernando Romero 609 357 247 362.0 110.0 252.0
8 Adam Conley 652 405 202 450.0 202.9 247.1
9 Wade Miley 681 437 338 343.0 99.1 243.9
10 Corey Oswalt 517 280 282 235.0 2.4 232.6

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jack Flaherty 0.2959
0.2067
(45.5)
0.2118
(46.5)
0.2026
(48.2)
0.2108
(43.0)
Justin Verlander 0.3481
0.2638
(57.6)
0.2520
(73.0)
0.2666
(55.5)
0.2610
(60.0)
Trevor Bauer 0.3082
0.2364
(40.6)
0.2323
(48.4)
0.2316
(44.3)
0.2412
(37.2)
Jake Arrieta 0.1906
0.2266
(37.1)
0.2357
(38.8)
0.2245
(35.3)
0.2287
(38.5)
Gerrit Cole 0.3454
0.2238
(85.0)
0.2213
(92.4)
0.2229
(86.0)
0.2247
(84.4)
Patrick Corbin 0.3075
0.2005
(73.5)
0.2080
(72.8)
0.2012
(73.1)
0.1997
(74.1)
Blake Snell 0.3157
0.2440
(39.6)
0.2222
(59.5)
0.2451
(39.0)
0.2428
(40.4)
Clayton Kershaw 0.2385
0.2949
(46.6)
0.2880
(37.7)
0.2869
(41.2)
0.3030
(51.8)
Chris Sale 0.3841
0.2868
(50.7)
0.2995
(47.0)
0.3100
(36.5)
0.2636
(65.0)
Jon Lester 0.1958
0.2305
(38.0)
0.2367
(37.5)
0.2263
(34.5)
0.2347
(41.2)
Germán Márquez 0.2815
0.2031
(51.6)
0.2073
(53.7)
0.2098
(46.4)
0.1965
(57.1)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lucas Giolito 0.2040 0.1613 44.9
2 Noah Syndergaard 0.2940 0.2407 44.2
3 Josh Hader 0.3187 0.4673 40.8
4 Jacob deGrom 0.2605 0.3222 38.8
5 James Paxton 0.2496 0.3225 37.2
6 Derek Holland 0.1661 0.2325 37.2
7 Carlos Rodón 0.2330 0.1761 36.8
8 Dallas Keuchel 0.2018 0.1751 36.7
9 Shane Bieber 0.1525 0.2433 36.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Josh Hader 0.2584 0.4673 61.3
2 James Paxton 0.2432 0.3225 45.7
3 Jacob deGrom 0.2601 0.3222 44.8
4 Miles Mikolas 0.2267 0.1807 44.0
5 Dallas Keuchel 0.2160 0.1751 43.2
6 Edwin Díaz 0.2826 0.4429 42.5
7 Brad Keller 0.2267 0.1647 41.1
8 Mike Foltynewicz 0.2085 0.2715 40.6
9 Marco Estrada 0.2151 0.1643 37.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Josh Hader 0.3005 0.4673 46.5
2 Noah Syndergaard 0.2972 0.2407 46.0
3 Miles Mikolas 0.2189 0.1807 42.9
4 James Paxton 0.2434 0.3225 41.4
5 Lucas Giolito 0.1937 0.1613 36.7
6 Marco Estrada 0.2059 0.1643 35.4
7 Mike Foltynewicz 0.2095 0.2715 35.1
8 Derek Holland 0.1699 0.2325 34.7
9 Carlos Rodón 0.2276 0.1761 33.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lucas Giolito 0.2144 0.1613 52.9
2 Mike Minor 0.2633 0.2062 46.2
3 Jacob deGrom 0.2526 0.3222 45.4
4 Shane Bieber 0.1407 0.2433 42.4
5 Noah Syndergaard 0.2909 0.2407 42.1
6 Dallas Keuchel 0.2060 0.1751 40.3
7 Derek Holland 0.1623 0.2325 40.0
8 Carlos Rodón 0.2384 0.1761 39.6
9 Frankie Montas 0.2740 0.1519 38.8

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brad Keller 0.2267 0.1540 0.1647 41.1 2.6 38.5
2 Tyler Glasnow 0.2030 0.2783 0.2906 37.0 1.4 35.7
3 David Hess 0.2267 0.1406 0.1630 32.8 3.3 29.5
4 Andrew Suárez 0.2267 0.1783 0.1955 26.4 1.3 25.1
5 Ariel Jurado 0.2267 0.1235 0.0913 34.7 11.4 23.2
6 Heath Fillmyer 0.2267 0.1439 0.1657 23.9 2.3 21.7
7 Josh Hader 0.2584 0.3187 0.4673 61.3 40.8 20.5
8 Blake Snell 0.2222 0.2440 0.3157 59.5 39.6 19.9
9 Ryan Borucki 0.2267 0.1742 0.1614 30.6 11.6 19.0
10 Matt Koch 0.2067 0.1472 0.1389 27.4 8.5 19.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Homer Bailey 0.1770 0.1510 0.1518 19.8 7.1 12.7
2 Miles Mikolas 0.2189 0.2068 0.1807 42.9 33.4 9.5
3 Brad Keller 0.1689 0.1540 0.1647 11.1 2.6 8.5
4 Michael Lorenzen 0.2256 0.2019 0.1570 28.7 20.7 8.0
5 Luke Weaver 0.2374 0.2241 0.1987 32.6 24.7 7.9
6 Matt Koch 0.1688 0.1472 0.1389 16.1 8.5 7.7
7 Corey Oswalt 0.2283 0.2012 0.1596 23.6 16.0 7.6
8 Raisel Iglesias 0.2876 0.2616 0.2749 8.0 0.6 7.5
9 Tyler Clippard 0.2260 0.2507 0.2982 16.3 9.2 7.1
10 Max Scherzer 0.3020 0.3095 0.3464 25.6 18.8 6.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Sale 0.2636 0.2868 0.3841 65.0 50.7 14.4
2 Mike Minor 0.2633 0.2426 0.2062 46.2 33.0 13.3
3 Anthony DeSclafani 0.1553 0.1791 0.2231 25.5 14.0 11.5
4 Vince Velasquez 0.2659 0.2491 0.2556 16.0 5.5 10.5
5 Sam Gaviglio 0.1433 0.1621 0.1916 18.1 7.9 10.3
6 David Robertson 0.3525 0.3205 0.3216 13.0 4.0 9.0
7 Lucas Giolito 0.2144 0.2040 0.1613 52.9 44.9 8.0
8 Trevor Richards 0.1854 0.1995 0.2377 20.3 12.5 7.8
9 Reynaldo López 0.2158 0.2061 0.1890 33.6 25.8 7.7
10 Zack Godley 0.2423 0.2328 0.2339 18.6 11.2 7.5

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Kyle Freeland 0.5152
0.2979
(192.1)
0.2143
(208.0)
0.2351
(237.8)
0.3714
(147.3)
Trevor Williams 0.4516
0.2738
(131.9)
0.1707
(158.7)
0.3015
(106.4)
0.2500
(162.9)
Miles Mikolas 0.5625
0.3530
(177.7)
0.2421
(214.9)
0.3596
(165.4)
0.3462
(199.7)
Luis Severino 0.5938
0.4336
(133.0)
0.2558
(221.1)
0.4480
(115.0)
0.4194
(160.0)
Blake Snell 0.6774
0.3397
(243.7)
0.1795
(310.4)
0.3464
(232.9)
0.3333
(262.4)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Minor 0.1408 0.4286 190.8
2 Michael Fulmer 0.4021 0.1250 148.8
3 Ryan Yarbrough 0.1985 0.4211 146.3
4 Wade LeBlanc 0.0734 0.2812 144.5
5 Zack Wheeler 0.2322 0.4138 142.9
6 Alex Cobb 0.3789 0.1786 125.6
7 Homer Bailey 0.3124 0.0500 124.5
8 Clayton Kershaw 0.5469 0.3462 123.7
9 Marco Gonzales 0.2855 0.4483 118.8
10 Shane Bieber 0.3230 0.5500 115.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Marco Gonzales 0.1000 0.4483 201.6
2 Mike Minor 0.1000 0.4286 175.4
3 Aaron Nola 0.2564 0.5152 169.8
4 Zack Wheeler 0.1429 0.4138 161.1
5 Zack Godley 0.2000 0.4545 158.3
6 Zach Eflin 0.1250 0.4583 152.8
7 Jon Lester 0.3158 0.5625 146.3
8 Corey Kluber 0.3784 0.6061 145.9
9 Noah Syndergaard 0.2400 0.5200 145.3
10 Sean Newcomb 0.1351 0.3871 137.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Yarbrough 0.1417 0.4211 176.5
2 Zack Wheeler 0.1900 0.4138 167.8
3 Wade LeBlanc 0.0483 0.2812 155.3
4 J.A. Happ 0.3675 0.5484 133.8
5 Michael Fulmer 0.3417 0.1250 119.9
6 Homer Bailey 0.2906 0.0500 118.0
7 Jon Lester 0.4098 0.5625 117.5
8 Aaron Nola 0.3835 0.5152 110.8
9 Steven Matz 0.3375 0.1667 110.6
10 Tyler Anderson 0.3661 0.2188 107.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Minor 0.1017 0.4286 228.9
2 Michael Fulmer 0.4615 0.1250 170.6
3 Marco Gonzales 0.2609 0.4483 149.7
4 Shane Bieber 0.2857 0.5500 143.1
5 Alex Cobb 0.4231 0.1786 141.3
6 Clayton Kershaw 0.5926 0.3462 140.2
7 Walker Buehler 0.1111 0.3333 136.9
8 Jameson Taillon 0.2963 0.4375 135.0
9 Dylan Bundy 0.4615 0.2581 129.5
10 Homer Bailey 0.3333 0.0500 124.8

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Zack Godley 0.2000 0.3781 0.4545 158.3 68.7 89.6
2 Lucas Giolito 0.1333 0.3132 0.3125 96.7 7.5 89.2
3 Luis Severino 0.2558 0.4336 0.5938 221.1 133.0 88.1
4 Aaron Nola 0.2564 0.4257 0.5152 169.8 83.0 86.8
5 Jordan Hicks 0.2421 0.0446 0.0411 86.6 2.3 84.3
6 Marco Gonzales 0.1000 0.2855 0.4483 201.6 118.8 82.8
7 Burch Smith 0.2421 0.0838 0.0263 96.8 16.9 79.9
8 Noah Syndergaard 0.2400 0.4240 0.5200 145.3 68.5 76.7
9 Sean Newcomb 0.1351 0.3081 0.3871 137.5 62.2 75.3
10 Luis Castillo 0.1471 0.3495 0.3226 85.7 11.7 74.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tanner Scott 0.3402 0.1394 0.0566 67.6 17.4 50.3
2 Bryan Mitchell 0.3207 0.1897 0.1250 65.4 18.3 47.1
3 Kyle Freeland 0.2351 0.2979 0.5152 237.8 192.1 45.7
4 Yoshihisa Hirano 0.2421 0.0943 0.0533 49.0 8.0 41.0
5 Zack Greinke 0.4011 0.4509 0.4545 46.3 11.7 34.6
6 Trevor Richards 0.0731 0.1438 0.1600 48.5 14.5 33.9
7 Rick Porcello 0.3974 0.4478 0.5152 96.6 62.8 33.8
8 Hector Velázquez 0.3484 0.2689 0.1489 73.2 40.6 32.6
9 Joe Biagini 0.3277 0.2429 0.0800 80.7 50.0 30.7
10 Ryan Yarbrough 0.1417 0.1985 0.4211 176.5 146.3 30.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Trevor Richards 0.4000 0.1438 0.1600 114.4 14.5 99.9
2 Jordan Hicks 0.2421 0.0446 0.0411 57.7 2.3 55.4
3 Héctor Santiago 0.2800 0.1423 0.1224 58.3 4.4 54.0
4 Tyler Glasnow 0.3333 0.1983 0.0444 120.8 67.1 53.6
5 Collin McHugh 0.3750 0.1654 0.1034 68.1 14.6 53.5
6 Burch Smith 0.2500 0.0838 0.0263 69.1 16.9 52.2
7 Robert Gsellman 0.2759 0.1135 0.0882 54.1 5.1 49.0
8 Steven Brault 0.2667 0.1457 0.1333 42.4 0.8 41.5
9 Sam Gaviglio 0.2593 0.0830 0.1154 62.0 23.4 38.5
10 Mike Minor 0.1017 0.1408 0.4286 228.9 190.8 38.1

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Keone Kela 0.4444
0.0000
(92.5)
0.0278
(92.1)
0.0000
(92.5)
0.0000
(92.6)
Edwin Díaz 0.7808
0.4796
(82.1)
0.3333
(130.3)
0.4934
(78.2)
0.4655
(86.2)
Blake Treinen 0.5588
0.3271
(70.5)
0.1111
(146.7)
0.3365
(67.5)
0.3170
(73.8)
Bud Norris 0.4375
0.0000
(105.2)
0.1500
(74.8)
0.0000
(105.2)
0.0000
(105.3)
Josh Hader 0.2182
0.0257
(56.5)
0.0357
(61.3)
0.0414
(51.6)
0.0100
(61.4)
Robert Gsellman 0.1912
0.0000
(63.2)
0.0263
(63.0)
0.0000
(63.1)
0.0000
(63.4)
Alex Colomé 0.1714
0.5111
(98.0)
0.4667
(78.2)
0.5154
(99.3)
0.5068
(96.7)
Seranthony Domínguez 0.3019
0.0000
(67.9)
0.0295
(67.0)
0.0000
(67.8)
0.0000
(68.0)
Carlos Martinez 0.1515
0.0000
(74.8)
0.0250
(75.2)
0.0000
(74.7)
0.0000
(75.0)
Sergio Romo 0.3425
0.0272
(87.3)
0.0465
(89.1)
0.0573
(78.7)
0.0000
(95.1)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cam Bedrosian 0.4204 0.0141 112.3
2 Brad Ziegler 0.4369 0.1220 98.5
3 Juan Minaya 0.4534 0.0192 92.4
4 Jeurys Familia 0.5412 0.2571 88.2
5 Alex Claudio 0.3021 0.0152 88.2
6 Archie Bradley 0.2693 0.0395 70.4
7 Jeremy Jeffress 0.0000 0.2055 59.1
8 A.J. Minter 0.0000 0.2308 57.9
9 Héctor Rondón 0.0000 0.2381 57.5
10 Will Smith 0.0000 0.2593 52.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Felipe Vázquez 0.1455 0.5286 118.7
2 Shane Greene 0.0889 0.4848 115.5
3 Brad Hand 0.1346 0.4638 104.5
4 Brad Boxberger 0.1333 0.5333 98.2
5 Greg Holland 0.4359 0.0536 77.3
6 Wade Davis 0.3864 0.6232 66.5
7 Craig Kimbrel 0.4200 0.6667 65.3
8 Raisel Iglesias 0.2500 0.4545 64.7
9 Brandon Kintzler 0.2857 0.0286 62.9
10 David Robertson 0.3125 0.0725 62.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cam Bedrosian 0.3844 0.0141 102.6
2 Alex Claudio 0.3024 0.0152 88.3
3 Brad Ziegler 0.3867 0.1220 83.3
4 Juan Minaya 0.3996 0.0192 81.2
5 Jeurys Familia 0.5146 0.2571 80.2
6 Tony Watson 0.2497 0.0000 67.3
7 Jeremy Jeffress 0.0000 0.2055 59.0
8 A.J. Minter 0.0000 0.2308 57.9
9 Héctor Rondón 0.0000 0.2381 57.5
10 Will Smith 0.0000 0.2593 52.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Cam Bedrosian 0.4543 0.0141 121.3
2 Brad Ziegler 0.4842 0.1220 112.8
3 Juan Minaya 0.5195 0.0192 106.1
4 Archie Bradley 0.3778 0.0395 102.4
5 Jeurys Familia 0.5669 0.2571 95.8
6 Alex Claudio 0.3017 0.0152 87.9
7 Brad Boxberger 0.2429 0.5333 66.5
8 Sam Dyson 0.2575 0.0405 61.3
9 Jeremy Jeffress 0.0000 0.2055 59.2
10 A.J. Minter 0.0000 0.2308 58.0

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Felipe Vázquez 0.1455 0.4509 0.5286 118.7 20.6 98.1
2 Brad Hand 0.1346 0.4220 0.4638 104.5 10.2 94.3
3 Shane Greene 0.0889 0.3881 0.4848 115.5 24.8 90.7
4 Blake Treinen 0.1111 0.3271 0.5588 146.7 70.5 76.2
5 Greg Holland 0.4359 0.0000 0.0536 77.3 9.7 67.6
6 David Robertson 0.3125 0.0598 0.0725 62.9 1.3 61.5
7 Brandon Kintzler 0.2857 0.0347 0.0286 62.9 3.7 59.2
8 Brad Boxberger 0.1333 0.3194 0.5333 98.2 48.4 49.8
9 Edwin Díaz 0.3333 0.4796 0.7808 130.3 82.1 48.2
10 Raisel Iglesias 0.2500 0.5048 0.4545 64.7 16.9 47.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tony Watson 0.2497 0.1373 0.0000 67.3 37.9 29.4
2 Tommy Hunter 0.1856 0.1060 0.0615 35.7 14.2 21.5
3 Aroldis Chapman 0.4475 0.4932 0.5818 26.7 17.1 9.6
4 Wade Davis 0.4399 0.4758 0.6232 45.7 36.4 9.3
5 Hansel Robles 0.0656 0.0356 0.0377 8.7 1.4 7.3
6 Jacob Barnes 0.0000 0.0202 0.0408 7.1 2.7 4.3
7 Dan Otero 0.0331 0.0176 0.0164 6.1 2.3 3.9
8 Corey Knebel 0.4653 0.4488 0.2807 43.0 39.3 3.7
9 Craig Kimbrel 0.5057 0.5180 0.6667 37.7 34.8 3.0
10 Héctor Neris 0.3182 0.3092 0.2075 24.1 22.2 1.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Sam Dyson 0.2575 0.1271 0.0405 61.3 25.8 35.5
2 Archie Bradley 0.3778 0.2693 0.0395 102.4 70.4 32.0
3 Brad Boxberger 0.2429 0.3194 0.5333 66.5 48.4 18.1
4 Brad Ziegler 0.4842 0.4369 0.1220 112.8 98.5 14.3
5 Juan Minaya 0.5195 0.4534 0.0192 106.1 92.4 13.7
6 Cam Bedrosian 0.4543 0.4204 0.0141 121.3 112.3 9.0
7 Felipe Vázquez 0.4217 0.4509 0.5286 29.4 20.6 8.8
8 Sergio Romo 0.0000 0.0272 0.3425 95.1 87.3 7.9
9 Brad Hand 0.3969 0.4220 0.4638 17.9 10.2 7.7
10 Fernando Rodney 0.5206 0.4933 0.3676 45.7 38.1 7.6

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Clay Buchholz 2.0136
5.0461
(1091.1)
4.5552
(948.0)
4.8638
(997.4)
5.2308
(1187.3)
Matt Moore 6.7941
5.1125
(912.6)
4.7596
(1019.2)
5.3016
(850.1)
4.9197
(975.2)
Kyle Freeland 2.8468
4.8054
(1436.9)
4.1722
(1009.4)
4.8991
(1468.5)
4.7099
(1407.0)
Jacob deGrom 1.7005
3.4104
(1214.0)
3.4477
(1350.8)
3.4455
(1196.3)
3.3750
(1234.5)
Félix Hernández 5.5503
4.2995
(1032.2)
3.9796
(1164.6)
4.3882
(1010.0)
4.2097
(1052.6)
Trevor Bauer 2.2072
4.0433
(1132.9)
4.2857
(1397.4)
4.1772
(1188.5)
3.9079
(1078.8)
Blake Snell 1.8930
3.7539
(1123.4)
3.9706
(1363.7)
3.8108
(1123.8)
3.6958
(1124.7)
Mike Foltynewicz 2.8525
4.7077
(1189.8)
4.6293
(1225.6)
4.6556
(1109.1)
4.7610
(1274.1)
Lucas Giolito 6.1269
4.6201
(1366.3)
3.9036
(1823.4)
4.9953
(1119.1)
4.2484
(1607.8)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dereck Rodríguez 5.4300 2.8141 1149.3
2 Mike Clevinger 4.4691 3.0150 970.4
3 Clayton Richard 4.2048 5.3319 943.3
4 Jon Gray 4.1101 5.1180 939.2
5 Marcus Stroman 3.7166 5.5407 934.0
6 Dylan Bundy 4.5604 5.4524 861.1
7 Luke Weaver 3.7934 4.9511 861.0
8 Jason Hammel 4.8040 6.0236 860.3
9 Miles Mikolas 4.1456 2.8256 859.6
10 Trevor Williams 4.5875 3.1113 855.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aníbal Sánchez 5.4944 2.8317 1400.9
2 Aaron Nola 3.9673 2.3736 1216.7
3 Derek Holland 5.2466 3.5720 1123.3
4 Burch Smith 3.9704 6.9231 1103.4
5 Dylan Bundy 4.1790 5.4524 1052.2
6 Marco Estrada 4.2188 5.6381 971.1
7 Jason Hammel 4.5193 6.0236 952.5
8 Zack Wheeler 4.6821 3.3071 926.6
9 Drew Pomeranz 3.5815 6.0811 904.4
10 Lance Lynn 3.6071 4.7681 903.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Clayton Richard 3.9201 5.3319 1175.9
2 Jon Gray 4.1345 5.1180 962.8
3 Mike Clevinger 4.5027 3.0150 952.0
4 Aaron Nola 3.7736 2.3736 903.8
5 Luke Weaver 3.8157 4.9511 881.7
6 Marcus Stroman 3.8917 5.5407 880.7
7 Trevor Williams 4.6628 3.1113 868.6
8 Mike Fiers 5.0815 3.5581 864.6
9 Justin Verlander 3.8659 2.5234 858.1
10 Jaime Barria 5.3095 3.4098 852.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Dereck Rodríguez 6.0344 2.8141 1472.8
2 Dylan Bundy 4.1234 5.4524 1143.8
3 Aníbal Sánchez 4.9157 2.8317 1044.1
4 Mike Clevinger 4.4348 3.0150 991.2
5 Marcus Stroman 3.5402 5.5407 986.3
6 Brad Keller 4.9024 3.0784 949.1
7 Jason Hammel 4.5995 6.0236 944.5
8 Marco Estrada 4.3709 5.6381 917.4
9 Jon Gray 4.0851 5.1180 913.1
10 Drew Pomeranz 3.6610 6.0811 899.9

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Andrew Cashner 4.1306 5.2071 5.2941 880.6 233.7 646.9
2 Aníbal Sánchez 5.4944 4.5750 2.8317 1400.9 822.4 578.5
3 Jordan Lyles 5.7420 4.3958 4.1065 558.8 12.3 546.4
4 Yefry Ramírez 3.9704 5.9456 5.9235 612.3 68.8 543.5
5 Walker Buehler 4.4118 3.5451 2.6214 898.6 361.2 537.3
6 Jake Odorizzi 3.9260 4.7554 4.4909 493.7 6.0 487.7
7 Lucas Giolito 3.9036 4.6201 6.1269 1823.4 1366.3 457.2
8 Lance Lynn 3.6071 4.3859 4.7681 903.3 446.8 456.5
9 Aaron Nola 3.9673 3.5749 2.3736 1216.7 785.4 431.3
10 Derek Holland 5.2466 4.7870 3.5720 1123.3 697.1 426.2

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Cole Hamels 4.6588 4.2569 3.7762 459.6 181.0 278.6
2 Clayton Richard 3.9201 4.2048 5.3319 1175.9 943.3 232.6
3 Jake Odorizzi 5.1032 4.7554 4.4909 213.2 6.0 207.2
4 José Berríos 4.5562 4.2404 3.8371 324.1 117.3 206.8
5 Andrew Suárez 3.9789 4.2151 4.4906 548.1 353.6 194.5
6 Kyle Hendricks 4.0540 3.7681 3.4372 247.2 60.7 186.4
7 Miguel Castro 5.5915 5.0594 3.9614 495.4 316.6 178.9
8 Jorge López 4.1908 4.8980 5.0311 269.7 91.1 178.7
9 Sam Gaviglio 4.3912 4.6537 5.3127 676.2 501.5 174.7
10 Trevor Richards 3.8184 4.0814 4.4169 498.3 323.6 174.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Lance Lynn 3.8192 4.3859 4.7681 801.4 446.8 354.6
2 Dereck Rodríguez 6.0344 5.4300 2.8141 1472.8 1149.3 323.6
3 Alex Cobb 3.7687 4.2916 4.9037 879.8 573.9 305.9
4 Dylan Bundy 4.1234 4.5604 5.4524 1143.8 861.1 282.7
5 Mike Minor 3.6818 4.1741 4.1847 447.3 170.7 276.7
6 Zack Wheeler 4.7114 4.4330 3.3071 898.9 647.1 251.8
7 Lucas Giolito 4.2484 4.6201 6.1269 1607.8 1366.3 241.5
8 Freddy Peralta 5.3115 4.6409 4.2511 277.5 42.9 234.5
9 Aníbal Sánchez 4.9157 4.5750 2.8317 1044.1 822.4 221.6
10 Ross Stripling 4.3160 3.9419 3.0246 551.0 332.6 218.4

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Tyler Chatwood 1.8039
1.4197
(218.1)
1.3879
(217.7)
1.4410
(210.4)
1.3981
(225.3)
Jacob deGrom 0.9124
1.1601
(152.8)
1.1893
(204.4)
1.1621
(150.0)
1.1581
(156.7)
Danny Duffy 1.4903
1.2628
(202.1)
1.2535
(186.1)
1.2990
(180.8)
1.2267
(222.5)
Drew Pomeranz 1.7703
1.3101
(180.5)
1.2901
(176.2)
1.3426
(171.2)
1.2775
(189.4)
Blake Snell 0.9742
1.3372
(208.9)
1.3897
(268.4)
1.3285
(199.0)
1.3460
(219.7)
Patrick Corbin 1.0500
1.3688
(203.3)
1.4217
(271.7)
1.3569
(189.5)
1.3810
(218.4)
Mike Foltynewicz 1.0820
1.3881
(179.7)
1.4095
(219.8)
1.3707
(162.7)
1.4060
(198.0)
Jason Hammel 1.6299
1.3482
(201.9)
1.3166
(201.4)
1.3688
(193.1)
1.3274
(210.1)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Luke Weaver 1.2352 1.4963 198.4
2 Chris Archer 1.1738 1.3753 169.8
3 Jhoulys Chacín 1.4381 1.1626 167.9
4 Justin Verlander 1.1595 0.9019 160.8
5 Seranthony Domínguez 1.6887 0.9310 160.1
6 Sonny Gray 1.2864 1.4962 159.7
7 Tyler Mahle 1.3402 1.5893 159.0
8 Kyle Freeland 1.4893 1.2455 151.2
9 Bryan Mitchell 1.3693 1.7534 151.2
10 Martín Pérez 1.4660 1.7812 150.8

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zack Wheeler 1.4547 1.1243 222.0
2 Aaron Nola 1.2594 0.9749 209.8
3 Walker Buehler 1.3725 0.9612 205.2
4 Lance Lynn 1.2812 1.5255 193.5
5 Lucas Giolito 1.2651 1.4769 189.0
6 Aníbal Sánchez 1.4359 1.0829 177.5
7 Justin Verlander 1.1458 0.9019 176.5
8 Zack Godley 1.2565 1.4467 175.9
9 Matthew Boyd 1.4338 1.1566 173.8
10 Gerrit Cole 1.2751 1.0333 167.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Luke Weaver 1.2287 1.4963 205.6
2 Justin Verlander 1.1977 0.9019 188.1
3 Chris Archer 1.1722 1.3753 174.2
4 Tyler Mahle 1.3297 1.5893 167.1
5 Jhoulys Chacín 1.4323 1.1626 158.9
6 Kyle Freeland 1.4997 1.2455 155.5
7 Wandy Peralta 1.3679 1.9632 151.0
8 José Ureña 1.4628 1.1839 148.8
9 Seranthony Domínguez 1.6418 0.9310 148.0
10 Bryan Mitchell 1.3879 1.7534 146.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Sonny Gray 1.2178 1.4962 195.7
2 Dereck Rodríguez 1.5817 1.1324 190.6
3 Luke Weaver 1.2419 1.4963 190.2
4 Tyson Ross 1.6493 1.2962 187.1
5 Jhoulys Chacín 1.4442 1.1626 178.0
6 Seranthony Domínguez 1.7377 0.9310 173.0
7 Miles Mikolas 1.3416 1.0714 171.5
8 Dylan Bundy 1.2427 1.4097 168.7
9 Martín Pérez 1.4167 1.7812 167.7
10 Dallas Keuchel 1.1811 1.3143 167.1

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tyler Glasnow 1.5855 1.3785 1.2716 131.9 19.8 112.1
2 Lucas Giolito 1.2651 1.4255 1.4769 189.0 90.0 99.1
3 Aníbal Sánchez 1.4359 1.3169 1.0829 177.5 93.7 83.8
4 Aaron Nola 1.2594 1.1925 0.9749 209.8 127.2 82.6
5 Zack Wheeler 1.4547 1.3762 1.1243 222.0 139.3 82.6
6 Yefry Ramírez 1.2724 1.5817 1.5306 85.3 4.0 81.4
7 Walker Buehler 1.3725 1.2559 0.9612 205.2 124.5 80.7
8 Marco Gonzales 1.4722 1.3909 1.2240 148.3 70.1 78.1
9 Jameson Taillon 1.3463 1.2811 1.1780 106.9 30.2 76.7
10 Burch Smith 1.2724 1.5131 1.6667 152.6 78.1 74.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Minor 1.3909 1.3158 1.1210 127.9 83.3 44.6
2 Cole Hamels 1.4233 1.3641 1.2640 72.0 28.6 43.4
3 Homer Bailey 1.4298 1.4998 1.6364 136.6 99.4 37.3
4 Kyle Hendricks 1.2926 1.2429 1.1457 62.4 26.5 36.0
5 Trevor Richards 1.2743 1.3302 1.3852 99.0 65.4 33.6
6 Tyron Guerrero 1.5175 1.6370 1.6207 46.4 12.9 33.5
7 John Gant 1.2967 1.3552 1.2982 34.9 3.7 31.1
8 Miguel Castro 1.6025 1.5154 1.4479 31.8 1.1 30.7
9 Justin Verlander 1.1977 1.1595 0.9019 188.1 160.8 27.3
10 Burch Smith 1.4425 1.5131 1.6667 105.3 78.1 27.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tyson Ross 1.6493 1.5694 1.2962 187.1 132.2 54.9
2 Justin Anderson 1.2724 1.5000 1.4819 64.5 11.2 53.2
3 Miles Mikolas 1.3416 1.2838 1.0714 171.5 119.4 52.1
4 Lucas Giolito 1.3540 1.4255 1.4769 140.1 90.0 50.2
5 Dallas Keuchel 1.1811 1.2445 1.3143 167.1 117.5 49.6
6 Freddy Peralta 1.6328 1.4920 1.1362 140.8 93.5 47.3
7 Alex Cobb 1.2563 1.3291 1.4114 140.8 97.1 43.8
8 Dylan Bundy 1.2427 1.3071 1.4097 168.7 125.4 43.3
9 Dereck Rodríguez 1.5817 1.5042 1.1324 190.6 149.6 41.0
10 Sonny Gray 1.2178 1.2864 1.4962 195.7 159.7 36.0