2012 Fantasy Projection Evaluation

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2012, excluding batters with fewer than 300 PA and pitchers with fewer than 200 BF. Limited to 5x5 categories, with playing time (PA/BF) split out from rates.

Summary

Batting

System PA HR SB R RBI AVG
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF SO W SV ERA WHIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Everybody Missed for Plate Appearances (PA)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Gaby Sanchez 326
614
(287.9)
595
(269.0)
629
(302.8)
599
(273.0)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jacoby Ellsbury 700 323 377.1
2 Evan Longoria 649 312 336.6
3 Brian Dozier 673 340 333.0
4 Dee Strange-Gordon 626 330 296.0
5 Chris Young 642 363 279.0
6 Jayson Werth 619 344 274.7
7 Logan Morrison 585 334 251.5
8 Adam Lind 593 353 240.0
9 Quintin Berry 100 330 230.0
10 Nick Markakis 693 471 221.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bryce Harper 100 597 497.0
2 Norichika Aoki 100 588 488.0
3 Yoenis Cespedes 100 540 440.0
4 Jason Kipnis 282 672 390.0
5 Zack Cozart 222 600 378.0
6 Yonder Alonso 258 619 361.0
7 Mike Trout 280 639 359.0
8 Kyle Seager 308 651 343.0
9 Josh Reddick 354 673 319.0
10 Jesus Montero 243 553 310.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jacoby Ellsbury 704 323 381.2
2 Grégor Blanco 80 453 373.5
3 Kyle Seager 291 651 360.0
4 Everth Cabrera 94 449 355.5
5 Norichika Aoki 242 588 345.5
6 Michael Saunders 211 553 341.6
7 Evan Longoria 646 312 334.2
8 Bryce Harper 275 597 322.2
9 Todd Frazier 150 465 314.7
10 Jayson Werth 647 344 303.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jacoby Ellsbury 696 323 373.0
2 Dee Strange-Gordon 677 330 347.0
3 Evan Longoria 651 312 339.0
4 Brian Dozier 673 340 333.0
5 Alexi Amarista 602 300 302.0
6 Anthony Rizzo 653 368 285.0
7 Salvador Perez 580 305 275.0
8 Chris Young 634 363 271.0
9 Luis Valbuena 566 303 263.0
10 Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 672 416 256.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Yoenis Cespedes 100 612 540 440.0 71.5 368.5
2 Norichika Aoki 100 450 588 488.0 138.2 349.8
3 Jason Kipnis 282 622 672 390.0 50.0 340.0
4 Zack Cozart 222 547 600 378.0 53.5 324.5
5 Bryce Harper 100 409 597 497.0 187.6 309.4
6 Jose Altuve 330 649 630 300.0 19.2 280.8
7 Yonder Alonso 258 531 619 361.0 88.4 272.6
8 Paul Goldschmidt 295 620 587 292.0 32.9 259.1
9 Dustin Ackley 400 680 668 268.0 11.7 256.3
10 Alejandro De Aza 290 544 585 295.0 40.7 254.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 137 404 416 279.4 11.7 267.7
2 Matt Carpenter 87 329 340 253.2 11.1 242.1
3 Todd Frazier 150 368 465 314.7 96.8 217.8
4 Luis Valbuena 71 318 303 232.0 15.5 216.5
5 Joaquin Arias 100 380 344 244.0 36.0 208.0
6 Norichika Aoki 242 450 588 345.5 138.2 207.2
7 Kirk Nieuwenhuis 77 279 314 237.1 34.5 202.5
8 Logan Forsythe 126 323 350 223.5 27.2 196.2
9 Juan Pierre 210 404 439 228.5 35.2 193.2
10 Justin Ruggiano 76 248 320 243.8 72.4 171.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alexi Amarista 602 345 300 302.0 45.0 257.0
2 Luis Valbuena 566 318 303 263.0 15.5 247.5
3 Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 672 404 416 256.0 11.7 244.3
4 Matt Carpenter 571 329 340 231.0 11.1 219.9
5 Anthony Rizzo 653 492 368 285.0 124.1 160.9
6 Logan Forsythe 519 323 350 169.0 27.2 141.8
7 Kirk Nieuwenhuis 482 279 314 168.0 34.5 133.5
8 Salvador Perez 580 452 305 275.0 147.4 127.6
9 Juan Pierre 597 404 439 158.0 35.2 122.8
10 Tyler Greene 506 386 330 176.0 56.3 119.7

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Carlos Beltrán 0.0748
0.0424
(17.6)
0.0427
(17.9)
0.0428
(17.7)
0.0420
(17.8)
Chase Headley 0.0686
0.0264
(26.8)
0.0237
(29.2)
0.0272
(26.6)
0.0255
(27.3)
Ian Desmond 0.0623
0.0235
(19.2)
0.0233
(19.6)
0.0242
(19.0)
0.0227
(19.5)
Adrián González 0.0342
0.0656
(24.1)
0.0615
(20.9)
0.0656
(23.8)
0.0655
(24.2)
Curtis Granderson 0.1051
0.0717
(20.3)
0.0711
(21.1)
0.0679
(23.2)
0.0754
(17.6)
Edwin Encarnación 0.0923
0.0526
(23.1)
0.0511
(24.5)
0.0521
(23.7)
0.0531
(22.7)
Adam Dunn 0.1277
0.0919
(20.8)
0.0775
(30.5)
0.0874
(24.0)
0.0967
(17.5)
A.J. Pierzynski 0.0665
0.0220
(21.1)
0.0240
(20.4)
0.0230
(20.9)
0.0211
(21.5)
Mike Trout 0.0703
0.0322
(21.8)
0.0400
(17.3)
0.0329
(21.7)
0.0316
(22.1)
Josh Hamilton 0.1051
0.0579
(27.6)
0.0594
(27.0)
0.0593
(27.0)
0.0565
(28.4)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Justin Upton 0.0653 0.0387 19.1
2 Carlos Pena 0.0873 0.0597 18.9
3 Mark Reynolds 0.1073 0.0767 18.5
4 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0768 0.0509 17.5
5 Albert Pujols 0.0775 0.0559 17.1
6 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.0513 0.0926 16.8
7 Josh Reddick 0.0402 0.0688 16.7
8 Alex Gordon 0.0461 0.0277 16.0
9 Jonny Gomes 0.0499 0.1017 16.0
10 Carlos Lee 0.0398 0.0178 15.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Davis 0.0481 0.0946 24.3
2 Pedro Álvarez 0.0458 0.0862 21.8
3 Josh Reddick 0.0346 0.0688 20.9
4 Wilin Rosario 0.0422 0.0930 20.3
5 Ike Davis 0.0476 0.0840 19.4
6 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0805 0.1205 18.5
7 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.0500 0.0926 17.6
8 Jason Kubel 0.0494 0.0831 17.4
9 Ryan Braun 0.0576 0.0863 17.3
10 Yonder Alonso 0.0437 0.0199 16.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Justin Upton 0.0669 0.0387 19.8
2 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.0487 0.0926 18.1
3 Albert Pujols 0.0796 0.0559 18.1
4 Carlos Pena 0.0854 0.0597 17.4
5 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0770 0.0509 17.3
6 Mark Reynolds 0.1052 0.0767 17.2
7 Jason Kubel 0.0505 0.0831 16.7
8 Andrew McCutchen 0.0388 0.0665 16.4
9 Carlos Lee 0.0411 0.0178 16.4
10 Jonny Gomes 0.0499 0.1017 16.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Carlos Pena 0.0893 0.0597 20.2
2 Mark Reynolds 0.1094 0.0767 19.8
3 Josh Reddick 0.0366 0.0688 19.0
4 Brett Lawrie 0.0574 0.0267 18.6
5 Justin Upton 0.0636 0.0387 18.2
6 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0767 0.0509 17.5
7 Nelson Cruz 0.0763 0.0535 17.3
8 Alex Gordon 0.0473 0.0277 17.0
9 Wilin Rosario 0.0513 0.0930 16.1
10 Jonny Gomes 0.0500 0.1017 15.9

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Norichika Aoki 0.0428 0.0138 0.0210 14.7 2.0 12.8
2 Chris Davis 0.0481 0.0672 0.0946 24.3 13.2 11.1
3 Pedro Álvarez 0.0458 0.0639 0.0862 21.8 10.8 11.0
4 Donovan Solano 0.0428 0.0081 0.0085 11.9 1.1 10.8
5 Bryan LaHair 0.0368 0.0626 0.0737 12.8 2.8 10.0
6 Adam Dunn 0.0775 0.0919 0.1277 30.5 20.8 9.8
7 Giancarlo Stanton 0.0805 0.0963 0.1205 18.5 10.2 8.2
8 Mike Moustakas 0.0232 0.0359 0.0450 11.5 3.3 8.2
9 Justin Maxwell 0.0441 0.0667 0.0887 14.6 6.4 8.2
10 Anthony Rizzo 0.0269 0.0528 0.0543 8.9 0.8 8.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Donovan Solano 0.0428 0.0081 0.0085 11.9 1.1 10.8
2 Joaquin Arias 0.0428 0.0094 0.0177 9.8 1.5 8.2
3 Brian Dozier 0.0428 0.0114 0.0226 8.0 2.5 5.5
4 Justin Maxwell 0.0549 0.0667 0.0887 10.7 6.4 4.3
5 Pedro Álvarez 0.0575 0.0639 0.0862 14.9 10.8 4.1
6 José Bautista 0.0843 0.0923 0.0989 4.5 1.1 3.4
7 Daniel Nava 0.0428 0.0183 0.0288 5.5 2.1 3.4
8 Adam Dunn 0.0874 0.0919 0.1277 24.0 20.8 3.2
9 Jesus Montero 0.0577 0.0519 0.0355 14.1 11.2 2.9
10 Curtis Granderson 0.0679 0.0717 0.1051 23.2 20.3 2.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brett Lawrie 0.0574 0.0501 0.0267 18.6 14.6 4.0
2 Kelly Johnson 0.0532 0.0487 0.0451 7.1 4.4 2.7
3 Rod Barajas 0.0560 0.0491 0.0430 6.1 3.6 2.6
4 Colby Rasmus 0.0622 0.0586 0.0545 7.3 5.0 2.3
5 Jay Bruce 0.0697 0.0735 0.0825 5.6 3.3 2.3
6 Josh Reddick 0.0366 0.0402 0.0688 19.0 16.7 2.3
7 Yoenis Cespedes 0.0426 0.0469 0.0593 6.8 4.6 2.2
8 Dustin Ackley 0.0278 0.0249 0.0247 4.8 2.7 2.1
9 Chris Davis 0.0634 0.0672 0.0946 15.3 13.2 2.0
10 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.0588 0.0561 0.0499 8.8 6.8 2.0

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Alexi Casilla 0.2958
0.1347
(52.1)
0.1443
(49.0)
0.1321
(51.7)
0.1373
(52.6)
Shane Victorino 0.2378
0.1347
(67.8)
0.1449
(61.1)
0.1267
(70.6)
0.1429
(65.0)
Carlos Gómez 0.3936
0.2430
(67.5)
0.2000
(87.0)
0.2272
(72.9)
0.2588
(62.2)
Jordan Schafer 0.3034
0.1715
(47.0)
0.1562
(52.6)
0.1670
(47.2)
0.1765
(46.7)
Norichika Aoki 0.1935
0.0538
(81.4)
0.0764
(68.2)
0.0521
(80.1)
0.0556
(82.7)
Michael Bourn 0.2111
0.2871
(54.4)
0.2775
(47.5)
0.2749
(48.6)
0.2995
(60.2)
Michael Saunders 0.1810
0.1004
(43.9)
0.0986
(45.0)
0.0974
(43.3)
0.1034
(44.4)
Alexei Ramirez 0.1429
0.0541
(54.3)
0.0662
(46.9)
0.0516
(53.4)
0.0566
(55.2)
Jason Heyward 0.1355
0.0719
(40.6)
0.0652
(45.0)
0.0688
(40.0)
0.0750
(41.1)
Jason Kipnis 0.1685
0.0799
(58.6)
0.0882
(53.2)
0.0738
(60.1)
0.0861
(57.2)
Quintin Berry 0.2360
0.0764
(52.2)
0.0764
(52.3)
0.0764
(50.9)
0.0764
(53.5)
Elvis Andrus 0.1055
0.1806
(54.3)
0.1714
(47.6)
0.1797
(56.5)
0.1814
(52.0)
Everth Cabrera 0.3667
0.2501
(51.8)
0.1754
(85.4)
0.2267
(60.5)
0.2736
(43.0)
Omar Infante 0.1360
0.0293
(62.0)
0.0395
(56.1)
0.0288
(60.0)
0.0299
(64.0)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Kemp 0.1760 0.0763 45.4
2 John Mayberry Jr. 0.0999 0.0094 43.9
3 Michael Brantley 0.1412 0.0727 42.5
4 Austin Jackson 0.1342 0.0678 41.7
5 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0502 0.1224 41.6
6 Andy Dirks 0.1256 0.0105 40.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Trout 0.0938 0.2579 104.2
2 Jose Altuve 0.1013 0.1964 59.3
3 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2235 0.4000 57.9
4 Alcides Escobar 0.1278 0.2059 49.9
5 Nelson Cruz 0.1250 0.0588 43.2
6 Grégor Blanco 0.1148 0.2080 41.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jeff Francoeur 0.0994 0.0312 44.2
2 Michael Brantley 0.1396 0.0727 43.9
3 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2678 0.4000 41.9
4 Zack Cozart 0.0979 0.0333 41.9
5 John Mayberry Jr. 0.0908 0.0094 41.5
6 Austin Jackson 0.1288 0.0678 40.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Kemp 0.1939 0.0763 51.6
2 John Mayberry Jr. 0.1089 0.0094 46.4
3 Martín Prado 0.0278 0.0904 45.1
4 Paul Goldschmidt 0.0497 0.1224 44.3
5 Austin Jackson 0.1395 0.0678 42.6
6 Andy Dirks 0.1360 0.0105 42.2

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Trout 0.0938 0.2129 0.2579 104.2 27.9 76.3
2 Jose Altuve 0.1013 0.1688 0.1964 59.3 16.6 42.7
3 Everth Cabrera 0.1754 0.2501 0.3667 85.4 51.8 33.6
4 Alcides Escobar 0.1278 0.1703 0.2059 49.9 22.2 27.6
5 Jesus Montero 0.0492 0.0007 0.0000 27.8 1.1 26.7
6 Justin Ruggiano 0.0678 0.1446 0.1707 32.6 7.9 24.6
7 Elliot Johnson 0.1094 0.1779 0.2222 37.0 14.3 22.7
8 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2235 0.2886 0.4000 57.9 36.3 21.5
9 Dayan Viciedo 0.0580 0.0203 0.0000 32.1 11.7 20.3
10 Carlos Gómez 0.2000 0.2430 0.3936 87.0 67.5 19.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Daniel Nava 0.0764 0.0339 0.0357 14.6 0.2 14.4
2 Ichiro Suzuki 0.1527 0.1733 0.1824 16.2 5.2 11.1
3 Jose Altuve 0.1502 0.1688 0.1964 25.9 16.6 9.3
4 Everth Cabrera 0.2267 0.2501 0.3667 60.5 51.8 8.7
5 B.J. Upton 0.2172 0.2342 0.2441 13.7 5.4 8.3
6 Drew Stubbs 0.1966 0.2146 0.2500 26.2 18.6 7.7
7 Curtis Granderson 0.1143 0.1083 0.0654 37.0 30.3 6.8
8 Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 0.1370 0.1268 0.0463 39.9 34.0 5.9
9 Albert Pujols 0.0370 0.0494 0.0533 7.4 1.8 5.6
10 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.2678 0.2886 0.4000 41.9 36.3 5.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 José Reyes 0.2357 0.2170 0.2139 13.7 3.2 10.5
2 David Wright 0.1282 0.1085 0.0758 33.3 22.8 10.5
3 Bryce Harper 0.1719 0.1533 0.1241 26.9 18.2 8.7
4 Nelson Cruz 0.1228 0.1058 0.0588 39.3 31.0 8.4
5 Brett Lawrie 0.1622 0.1433 0.0977 33.1 25.1 8.0
6 Hanley Ramirez 0.1875 0.1720 0.1329 34.6 26.9 7.7
7 Justin Maxwell 0.2105 0.1854 0.1233 29.8 22.3 7.4
8 Carlos González 0.1538 0.1375 0.1274 13.7 6.6 7.1
9 Nyjer Morgan 0.1880 0.1637 0.1429 13.7 7.1 6.5
10 Matt Kemp 0.1939 0.1760 0.0763 51.6 45.4 6.3

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Bryce Harper 0.1642
0.1015
(37.1)
0.1219
(25.2)
0.1075
(34.2)
0.0956
(40.1)
Wilin Rosario 0.1573
0.1041
(22.5)
0.1139
(18.5)
0.1161
(17.8)
0.0920
(27.2)
Austin Jackson 0.1669
0.1308
(22.0)
0.1380
(17.8)
0.1369
(18.9)
0.1246
(25.3)
Delmon Young 0.0888
0.1196
(19.0)
0.1175
(17.5)
0.1200
(18.6)
0.1191
(19.2)
Jesus Montero 0.0832
0.1183
(19.6)
0.1193
(20.0)
0.1218
(21.0)
0.1148
(18.2)
Albert Pujols 0.1269
0.1593
(22.0)
0.1593
(21.8)
0.1636
(24.2)
0.1549
(19.7)
Mike Trout 0.2019
0.1463
(35.3)
0.1286
(46.8)
0.1303
(46.1)
0.1622
(24.5)
Melky Cabrera 0.1677
0.1200
(23.6)
0.1250
(21.4)
0.1183
(25.0)
0.1218
(22.3)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adrián González 0.1443 0.1096 24.0
2 Yunel Escobar 0.1293 0.0954 20.8
3 Carlos Gómez 0.1162 0.1593 19.3
4 Hanley Ramirez 0.1467 0.1184 19.1
5 Freddie Freeman 0.1171 0.1468 18.2
6 José Reyes 0.1446 0.1201 17.8
7 A.J. Pierzynski 0.0964 0.1308 17.6
8 Alexei Ramirez 0.1229 0.0950 17.6
9 J.D. Martinez 0.1170 0.0774 17.5
10 Chris Denorfia 0.1034 0.1466 16.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Freddie Freeman 0.1076 0.1468 24.3
2 Shane Victorino 0.1429 0.1081 23.2
3 Chase Headley 0.1061 0.1359 20.8
4 A.J. Pierzynski 0.0918 0.1308 20.2
5 J.D. Martinez 0.1215 0.0774 19.4
6 Justin Upton 0.1398 0.1704 19.2
7 José Reyes 0.1465 0.1201 18.9
8 Howie Kendrick 0.1275 0.0960 18.7
9 Yunel Escobar 0.1255 0.0954 18.3
10 Clint Barmes 0.1052 0.0690 17.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adrián González 0.1575 0.1096 32.3
2 Carlos Gómez 0.1000 0.1593 27.1
3 Yunel Escobar 0.1396 0.0954 26.5
4 Chris Denorfia 0.0891 0.1466 22.2
5 Prince Fielder 0.1528 0.1203 22.0
6 Jon Jay 0.0968 0.1394 21.7
7 Darwin Barney 0.0882 0.1241 21.5
8 Andrew McCutchen 0.1277 0.1590 21.5
9 Norichika Aoki 0.1027 0.1378 21.0
10 Freddie Freeman 0.1167 0.1468 19.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hanley Ramirez 0.1541 0.1184 24.7
2 Shane Victorino 0.1417 0.1081 23.3
3 Josh Hamilton 0.1273 0.1619 21.2
4 Kyle Seager 0.1260 0.0952 20.9
5 A.J. Pierzynski 0.0894 0.1308 20.8
6 Howie Kendrick 0.1296 0.0960 20.8
7 David Ortiz 0.1147 0.1697 20.6
8 J.D. Martinez 0.1201 0.0774 19.3
9 Michael Brantley 0.1338 0.1034 19.3
10 Alexei Ramirez 0.1244 0.0950 19.1

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Moustakas 0.0888 0.1114 0.1124 14.4 0.3 14.1
2 Michael Saunders 0.0976 0.1186 0.1284 17.0 5.2 11.8
3 Mike Trout 0.1286 0.1463 0.2019 46.8 35.3 11.6
4 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1232 0.1437 0.1497 13.2 2.8 10.5
5 Shane Victorino 0.1429 0.1280 0.1081 23.2 13.6 9.6
6 Adam Dunn 0.1085 0.1217 0.1341 16.6 7.7 8.8
7 Ryan Roberts 0.1354 0.1205 0.1043 15.2 8.1 7.1
8 Anthony Rizzo 0.0944 0.1131 0.1196 9.2 2.2 7.0
9 Donovan Solano 0.1219 0.1000 0.0918 9.5 2.7 6.8
10 Pablo Sandoval 0.1131 0.1271 0.1335 9.0 2.6 6.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Trout 0.1303 0.1463 0.2019 46.1 35.3 10.9
2 Everth Cabrera 0.0870 0.1085 0.1091 10.2 0.1 10.1
3 Prince Fielder 0.1528 0.1381 0.1203 22.0 12.6 9.4
4 Darwin Barney 0.0882 0.1020 0.1241 21.5 12.8 8.8
5 Andrew McCutchen 0.1277 0.1393 0.1590 21.5 13.0 8.5
6 Adrián González 0.1575 0.1443 0.1096 32.3 24.0 8.3
7 Michael Saunders 0.1053 0.1186 0.1284 13.1 5.2 7.9
8 Carlos Gómez 0.1000 0.1162 0.1593 27.1 19.3 7.8
9 Drew Stubbs 0.1092 0.1213 0.1379 15.9 8.8 7.2
10 Grégor Blanco 0.0886 0.1033 0.1236 16.1 9.0 7.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Everth Cabrera 0.1300 0.1085 0.1091 10.0 0.1 9.9
2 Cameron Maybin 0.1450 0.1283 0.1194 15.1 5.2 9.9
3 Shane Victorino 0.1417 0.1280 0.1081 23.3 13.6 9.7
4 Carlos Beltrán 0.1123 0.1260 0.1341 12.6 4.7 7.9
5 Kyle Seager 0.1260 0.1151 0.0952 20.9 13.2 7.7
6 Nelson Cruz 0.1205 0.1327 0.1340 7.8 0.6 7.3
7 David Murphy 0.1055 0.1187 0.1248 9.4 2.9 6.4
8 Josh Hamilton 0.1273 0.1380 0.1619 21.2 15.0 6.2
9 Colby Rasmus 0.1490 0.1401 0.1200 19.0 12.8 6.2
10 Chris Davis 0.1054 0.1167 0.1335 15.1 9.2 5.9

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Zack Cozart 0.0583
0.0942
(22.5)
0.1036
(27.7)
0.0961
(23.2)
0.0924
(21.7)
Kyle Seager 0.1321
0.0934
(24.1)
0.0877
(28.3)
0.0959
(23.0)
0.0909
(25.4)
Carlos Pena 0.1017
0.1410
(24.6)
0.1410
(24.2)
0.1412
(24.3)
0.1407
(24.7)
Chase Headley 0.1645
0.0922
(49.4)
0.0980
(45.9)
0.0858
(54.4)
0.0986
(44.6)
Jeff Francoeur 0.0813
0.1255
(27.7)
0.1254
(27.2)
0.1294
(29.6)
0.1216
(25.6)
Carlos Ruiz 0.1615
0.0927
(28.3)
0.1055
(23.2)
0.0862
(31.3)
0.0991
(25.4)
Jemile Weeks 0.0391
0.0874
(25.5)
0.0909
(26.9)
0.0926
(27.8)
0.0822
(23.1)
Josh Willingham 0.1789
0.1371
(24.7)
0.1404
(23.1)
0.1384
(24.3)
0.1357
(25.3)
Edwin Encarnación 0.1708
0.1271
(27.0)
0.1155
(35.0)
0.1324
(24.2)
0.1219
(30.1)
A.J. Pierzynski 0.1481
0.1004
(23.9)
0.1020
(23.5)
0.1033
(22.8)
0.0976
(25.2)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Rodriguez 0.1598 0.1078 28.4
2 Miguel Cabrera 0.1597 0.1994 26.5
3 Mike Trout 0.0913 0.1299 23.6
4 Josh Hamilton 0.1626 0.2013 23.5
5 Allen Craig 0.1320 0.1790 23.3
6 Alfonso Soriano 0.1370 0.1756 22.7
7 Carlos Beltrán 0.1185 0.1567 22.6
8 Chris Heisey 0.1388 0.0827 21.7
9 Shane Victorino 0.1134 0.0826 21.6
10 Jose Altuve 0.0909 0.0587 21.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Rodriguez 0.1688 0.1078 32.8
2 Miguel Cabrera 0.1576 0.1994 28.5
3 Chris Davis 0.1049 0.1512 25.5
4 Josh Hamilton 0.1606 0.2013 25.3
5 Buster Posey 0.1275 0.1689 24.7
6 Dayan Viciedo 0.0975 0.1436 24.6
7 John Mayberry Jr. 0.1461 0.0960 24.4
8 Jarrod Dyson 0.0983 0.0273 23.7
9 Freddie Freeman 0.1150 0.1516 22.1
10 Wilin Rosario 0.1139 0.1667 22.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Allen Craig 0.1150 0.1790 32.4
2 Carlos Beltrán 0.1114 0.1567 27.5
3 Michael Young 0.1429 0.1029 26.6
4 Shane Victorino 0.1209 0.0826 26.1
5 Jonathan Lucroy 0.0928 0.1676 25.6
6 Chris Heisey 0.1474 0.0827 24.6
7 Alfonso Soriano 0.1350 0.1756 24.4
8 Justin Upton 0.1440 0.1067 24.0
9 Chris Johnson 0.0991 0.1439 23.2
10 Brandon Inge 0.0945 0.1631 22.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Alex Rodriguez 0.1738 0.1078 36.1
2 Miguel Cabrera 0.1507 0.1994 32.5
3 Josh Reddick 0.0833 0.1263 27.5
4 Mike Trout 0.0855 0.1299 27.0
5 Josh Hamilton 0.1582 0.2013 26.1
6 Jose Altuve 0.0965 0.0587 25.1
7 Buster Posey 0.1284 0.1689 23.4
8 Wilin Rosario 0.1104 0.1667 23.1
9 Alex Rios 0.1041 0.1422 23.0
10 Austin Jackson 0.0689 0.1070 22.2

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Norichika Aoki 0.1163 0.0895 0.0850 18.9 3.6 15.3
2 Chris Davis 0.1049 0.1296 0.1512 25.5 11.2 14.3
3 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1393 0.1664 0.1717 15.8 1.8 14.0
4 Alejandro De Aza 0.1172 0.0931 0.0855 19.1 5.4 13.7
5 Freddie Freeman 0.1150 0.1358 0.1516 22.1 8.8 13.3
6 Jay Bruce 0.1343 0.1545 0.1564 13.4 0.2 13.3
7 Dayan Viciedo 0.0975 0.1194 0.1436 24.6 12.2 12.3
8 Everth Cabrera 0.0901 0.0662 0.0535 16.9 6.5 10.4
9 Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 0.0991 0.0737 0.0649 14.6 4.4 10.2
10 Mike Moustakas 0.0939 0.1252 0.1189 14.8 4.9 9.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Ichiro Suzuki 0.1007 0.0826 0.0830 12.4 0.9 11.5
2 Jesus Montero 0.1450 0.1259 0.1121 18.7 8.6 10.1
3 Jason Kubel 0.1262 0.1427 0.1576 17.4 7.6 9.8
4 Ryan Ludwick 0.1277 0.1466 0.1695 19.3 10.0 9.3
5 Allen Craig 0.1150 0.1320 0.1790 32.4 23.3 9.2
6 Albert Pujols 0.1847 0.1706 0.1567 19.4 10.4 8.9
7 Raul Ibanez 0.1155 0.1346 0.1459 12.5 4.1 8.4
8 Aaron Hill 0.0997 0.1114 0.1272 17.8 9.5 8.3
9 Dustin Ackley 0.1033 0.0909 0.0749 19.6 11.9 7.7
10 Michael Young 0.1429 0.1311 0.1029 26.6 19.4 7.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Josh Reddick 0.0833 0.1118 0.1263 27.5 8.6 18.9
2 Ichiro Suzuki 0.0645 0.0826 0.0830 10.9 0.9 10.0
3 Daniel Murphy 0.1287 0.1138 0.1062 15.1 5.7 9.4
4 Jamey Carroll 0.0421 0.0582 0.0745 16.3 7.9 8.4
5 Ike Davis 0.1241 0.1380 0.1541 16.3 8.4 7.9
6 Alex Rodriguez 0.1738 0.1598 0.1078 36.1 28.4 7.6
7 Austin Jackson 0.0689 0.0815 0.1070 22.2 14.7 7.5
8 Jordan Pacheco 0.1237 0.1111 0.1069 9.5 3.0 6.6
9 Giancarlo Stanton 0.1530 0.1664 0.1717 8.3 1.8 6.5
10 Seth Smith 0.1015 0.1166 0.1179 6.3 0.1 6.1

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Alex Rios 0.3041
0.2605
(26.2)
0.2530
(33.2)
0.2622
(25.3)
0.2589
(27.1)
Andrew McCutchen 0.3272
0.2725
(34.9)
0.2726
(37.2)
0.2715
(35.9)
0.2735
(34.1)
Jemile Weeks 0.2207
0.2664
(24.7)
0.2883
(34.2)
0.2658
(24.2)
0.2669
(25.1)
Dustin Ackley 0.2257
0.2595
(24.4)
0.2676
(27.6)
0.2583
(23.4)
0.2607
(25.3)
Aaron Hill 0.3021
0.2607
(25.8)
0.2465
(37.6)
0.2563
(29.0)
0.2652
(22.7)
Buster Posey 0.3358
0.2869
(28.2)
0.2830
(32.7)
0.2865
(28.6)
0.2872
(27.9)
Brendan Ryan 0.1941
0.2416
(23.6)
0.2511
(26.5)
0.2385
(22.0)
0.2447
(25.2)
Torii Hunter 0.3127
0.2613
(28.4)
0.2734
(23.3)
0.2615
(28.6)
0.2612
(28.4)
Eric Hosmer 0.2318
0.2924
(37.9)
0.2817
(29.4)
0.2808
(30.7)
0.3040
(45.0)
Mike Trout 0.3256
0.2605
(39.8)
0.2421
(53.8)
0.2544
(43.9)
0.2666
(35.8)
Melky Cabrera 0.3464
0.2814
(31.2)
0.2816
(32.8)
0.2783
(32.9)
0.2845
(29.6)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Derek Jeter 0.2742 0.3163 29.1
2 Carlos Ruiz 0.2650 0.3253 24.2
3 Ike Davis 0.2646 0.2274 23.4
4 Prince Fielder 0.2772 0.3133 22.9
5 Casey Kotchman 0.2721 0.2289 22.9
6 Jonathan Lucroy 0.2524 0.3196 22.3
7 Jeff Francoeur 0.2694 0.2353 22.2
8 Hanley Ramirez 0.2868 0.2566 22.0
9 Hunter Pence 0.2820 0.2528 22.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tyler Colvin 0.2236 0.2905 30.5
2 Alcides Escobar 0.2505 0.2926 27.7
3 Anthony Rizzo 0.2129 0.2849 26.7
4 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.2682 0.2296 25.7
5 Hunter Pence 0.2907 0.2528 25.6
6 Ike Davis 0.2700 0.2274 24.5
7 Brian Bogusevic 0.2642 0.2028 24.5
8 Andy Dirks 0.2542 0.3217 23.4
9 John Buck 0.2505 0.1924 22.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ike Davis 0.2745 0.2274 28.9
2 Carlos Ruiz 0.2610 0.3253 26.0
3 Derek Jeter 0.2809 0.3163 24.4
4 Hanley Ramirez 0.2903 0.2566 24.0
5 Jonathan Lucroy 0.2506 0.3196 23.1
6 Justin Ruggiano 0.2388 0.3125 22.8
7 Alex Gordon 0.2605 0.2944 22.7
8 Hunter Pence 0.2831 0.2528 22.4
9 Adrian Beltré 0.2849 0.3212 22.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Derek Jeter 0.2675 0.3163 33.9
2 Prince Fielder 0.2745 0.3133 24.7
3 Casey Kotchman 0.2749 0.2289 24.5
4 Jeff Francoeur 0.2727 0.2353 24.4
5 Austin Jackson 0.2594 0.3002 23.3
6 David Wright 0.2689 0.3064 23.1
7 J.J. Hardy 0.2677 0.2383 23.1
8 Rickie Weeks Jr. 0.2600 0.2296 22.6
9 Carlos Ruiz 0.2690 0.3253 22.4

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jose Altuve 0.2673 0.2881 0.2899 14.7 0.6 14.1
2 Mike Trout 0.2421 0.2605 0.3256 53.8 39.8 14.0
3 Alcides Escobar 0.2505 0.2684 0.2926 27.7 13.9 13.8
4 Anthony Rizzo 0.2129 0.2431 0.2849 26.7 14.4 12.4
5 Aaron Hill 0.2465 0.2607 0.3021 37.6 25.8 11.8
6 Brandon Belt 0.2429 0.2637 0.2749 15.5 4.0 11.4
7 Tyler Colvin 0.2236 0.2445 0.2905 30.5 19.6 11.0
8 Norichika Aoki 0.2668 0.2819 0.2885 13.1 2.3 10.8
9 Brian Bogusevic 0.2642 0.2358 0.2028 24.5 14.4 10.1
10 Jemile Weeks 0.2883 0.2664 0.2207 34.2 24.7 9.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Daniel Nava 0.2668 0.2446 0.2434 8.2 1.2 6.9
2 Alex Gordon 0.2605 0.2692 0.2944 22.7 16.1 6.6
3 Josh Reddick 0.2566 0.2472 0.2422 11.3 5.2 6.0
4 Ichiro Suzuki 0.2963 0.2873 0.2830 10.4 4.7 5.7
5 Ike Davis 0.2745 0.2646 0.2274 28.9 23.4 5.6
6 Norichika Aoki 0.2738 0.2819 0.2885 7.2 2.3 5.0
7 Jordan Schafer 0.2490 0.2366 0.2109 14.6 10.2 4.3
8 Yoenis Cespedes 0.2496 0.2573 0.2916 21.4 17.0 4.3
9 Brian Dozier 0.2668 0.2537 0.2342 11.9 7.6 4.3
10 Mike Trout 0.2544 0.2605 0.3256 43.9 39.8 4.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Eric Hosmer 0.3040 0.2924 0.2318 45.0 37.9 7.0
2 Bryce Harper 0.2376 0.2485 0.2702 17.7 11.3 6.4
3 Jason Heyward 0.2546 0.2627 0.2692 7.5 2.4 5.1
4 Grégor Blanco 0.2162 0.2274 0.2443 11.4 6.4 5.0
5 Derek Jeter 0.2675 0.2742 0.3163 33.9 29.1 4.8
6 Jordan Pacheco 0.2623 0.2713 0.3095 22.3 17.9 4.4
7 Rod Barajas 0.2508 0.2399 0.2056 17.4 13.4 4.0
8 Clint Barmes 0.2489 0.2412 0.2286 11.5 7.6 3.9
9 Brandon Crawford 0.2245 0.2329 0.2483 9.9 6.0 3.9
10 Ángel Pagán 0.2700 0.2758 0.2876 9.6 6.0 3.6

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Daniel Hudson 202
781
(579.2)
761
(559.0)
748
(546.4)
814
(612.0)
Carl Pavano 268
786
(517.6)
801
(533.0)
800
(532.3)
771
(503.0)
Ted Lilly 202
670
(468.1)
710
(508.0)
644
(442.2)
696
(493.9)
John Danks 238
801
(563.4)
710
(472.0)
788
(549.8)
815
(577.0)
Charlie Morton 223
679
(456.5)
685
(462.0)
627
(404.0)
732
(509.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Cecil 749 270 479.2
2 Jair Jurrjens 690 227 462.8
3 Zack Britton 710 270 439.7
4 Lucas Harrell 394 827 432.5
5 Jhoulys Chacín 743 314 429.1
6 Jeff Samardzija 303 723 420.4
7 Erasmo Ramírez 634 238 395.9
8 Wade Davis 674 284 389.8
9 Robbie Ross Jr. 644 265 379.1
10 Corey Kluber 656 281 375.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Wei-Yin Chen 100 818 718.0
2 Yu Darvish 100 816 716.0
3 Lucas Harrell 207 827 620.0
4 Matt Moore 183 759 576.0
5 Félix Doubront 161 709 548.0
6 Lance Lynn 198 744 546.0
7 Brett Myers 790 272 518.0
8 Luis Mendoza 201 709 508.0
9 Chris Sale 271 772 501.0
10 Adam Wainwright 338 831 493.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lucas Harrell 172 827 655.0
2 Scott Diamond 180 714 533.9
3 Wade Miley 286 807 520.6
4 Jair Jurrjens 705 227 477.5
5 Jeff Samardzija 247 723 475.8
6 Jose Quintana 100 568 468.0
7 Luis Mendoza 244 709 465.3
8 Brett Cecil 719 270 449.3
9 Zack Britton 714 270 444.4
10 Lance Lynn 301 744 443.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Cecil 779 270 509.1
2 Wade Davis 757 284 472.9
3 Jhoulys Chacín 779 314 464.9
4 Brett Myers 729 272 457.0
5 Jair Jurrjens 675 227 448.0
6 Wade LeBlanc 720 284 436.1
7 Zack Britton 705 270 435.0
8 Matt Garza 829 424 404.9
9 Erasmo Ramírez 634 238 395.9
10 Tyler Chatwood 689 294 395.1

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Yu Darvish 100 780 816 716.0 35.6 680.4
2 Wei-Yin Chen 100 697 818 718.0 120.9 597.1
3 Matt Moore 183 640 759 576.0 118.7 457.3
4 Adam Wainwright 338 717 831 493.0 113.7 379.3
5 Chris Sale 271 613 772 501.0 158.9 342.1
6 Tommy Milone 319 639 791 472.0 152.4 319.6
7 Brett Myers 790 473 272 518.0 200.7 317.3
8 Jose Quintana 100 417 568 468.0 151.0 317.0
9 Henderson Alvarez 401 706 807 406.0 100.8 305.2
10 Félix Doubront 161 458 709 548.0 251.0 297.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jose Quintana 100 417 568 468.0 151.0 317.0
2 Eric Stults 100 391 413 313.0 21.9 291.1
3 Joe Kelly 100 540 457 357.0 83.1 273.9
4 Craig Stammen 91 348 370 279.0 22.5 256.5
5 Cole De Vries 100 394 375 275.0 19.1 255.9
6 Scott Diamond 180 424 714 533.9 289.5 244.4
7 Zach McAllister 217 454 543 325.8 88.9 237.0
8 Tommy Hunter 155 379 573 418.2 193.6 224.6
9 Lucas Harrell 172 394 827 655.0 432.5 222.5
10 Drew Smyly 100 514 416 316.0 98.0 218.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Brett Myers 729 473 272 457.0 200.7 256.3
2 Jeanmar Gómez 789 547 395 394.1 152.4 241.7
3 Craig Stammen 604 348 370 234.0 22.5 211.5
4 Jeremy Hefner 662 456 408 254.1 48.1 206.0
5 Wade LeBlanc 720 515 284 436.1 230.9 205.2
6 Chris Tillman 634 438 347 287.0 90.6 196.4
7 Esmil Rogers 561 370 348 212.9 22.4 190.5
8 Adam Ottavino 533 316 339 194.0 22.6 171.4
9 Brayan Villarreal 427 262 226 201.1 36.1 165.0
10 Tyler Chatwood 689 532 294 395.1 238.4 156.7

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Ricky Romero 0.1496
0.1884
(46.4)
0.1919
(41.9)
0.1890
(44.5)
0.1877
(45.8)
Wade Davis 0.3063
0.1499
(39.5)
0.1540
(40.9)
0.1506
(40.2)
0.1493
(39.7)
Wandy Rodriguez 0.1589
0.1964
(47.9)
0.2068
(49.2)
0.1932
(42.6)
0.1995
(50.5)
Henderson Alvarez 0.0979
0.1343
(43.3)
0.1721
(66.5)
0.1379
(43.8)
0.1307
(40.3)
Clayton Richard 0.1176
0.1551
(49.8)
0.1651
(50.8)
0.1546
(46.7)
0.1555
(50.1)
R.A. Dickey 0.2481
0.1439
(80.6)
0.1569
(76.9)
0.1392
(87.7)
0.1486
(76.4)
Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1776
0.2193
(47.4)
0.2173
(38.6)
0.2185
(44.4)
0.2201
(47.9)
Yu Darvish 0.2708
0.1975
(45.7)
0.1981
(52.6)
0.1920
(52.7)
0.2031
(41.3)
Max Scherzer 0.2935
0.2086
(53.3)
0.2122
(57.5)
0.2041
(59.2)
0.2131
(49.8)
Derek Lowe 0.0859
0.1393
(45.2)
0.1646
(55.6)
0.1381
(42.5)
0.1404
(45.8)
Ricky Nolasco 0.1502
0.1860
(44.1)
0.1927
(42.2)
0.1769
(34.1)
0.1951
(51.5)
Jon Lester 0.1895
0.2298
(50.4)
0.2345
(46.7)
0.2297
(47.7)
0.2299
(50.4)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Félix Doubront 0.1547 0.2355 45.1
2 Wei-Yin Chen 0.1210 0.1883 40.9
3 Steve Delabar 0.1707 0.3358 40.5
4 Chris Resop 0.2417 0.1394 39.4
5 Zack Greinke 0.2584 0.2304 39.3
6 Drew Smyly 0.1187 0.2260 37.5
7 Aroldis Chapman 0.2938 0.4420 36.2
8 Iván Nova 0.1403 0.2045 35.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Aroldis Chapman 0.2477 0.4420 51.3
2 Craig Kimbrel 0.2964 0.5022 45.6
3 Dallas Keuchel 0.1981 0.1008 39.8
4 David Hernandez 0.2051 0.3525 38.7
5 Jason Grilli 0.2057 0.3689 37.8
6 Steve Delabar 0.1901 0.3358 37.6
7 Aaron Cook 0.1314 0.0487 37.4
8 Stephen Strasburg 0.2365 0.3017 37.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Wei-Yin Chen 0.0924 0.1883 66.7
2 Aaron Laffey 0.1981 0.1119 43.1
3 Dallas Keuchel 0.1981 0.1008 42.1
4 Félix Doubront 0.1630 0.2355 41.3
5 Jose Quintana 0.1981 0.1426 39.6
6 Iván Nova 0.1404 0.2045 37.3
7 Chris Resop 0.2333 0.1394 35.7
8 Craig Kimbrel 0.3401 0.5022 34.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zack Greinke 0.2728 0.2304 51.7
2 Félix Doubront 0.1465 0.2355 51.0
3 Lance Lynn 0.1638 0.2419 45.4
4 Chris Resop 0.2500 0.1394 42.1
5 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.1250 0.2669 40.7
6 Steve Delabar 0.1707 0.3358 40.5
7 Aroldis Chapman 0.2823 0.4420 39.4
8 Drew Smyly 0.1187 0.2260 37.5

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jose Quintana 0.1981 0.1343 0.1426 36.2 5.1 31.2
2 Dallas Keuchel 0.1981 0.1156 0.1008 39.8 12.1 27.7
3 Scott Diamond 0.1606 0.1141 0.1261 30.6 3.8 26.8
4 Henderson Alvarez 0.1721 0.1343 0.0979 66.5 43.3 23.2
5 Stephen Strasburg 0.2365 0.2582 0.3017 37.1 17.2 20.0
6 Gio Gonzalez 0.2117 0.2267 0.2518 26.1 6.5 19.7
7 Kenley Jansen 0.2876 0.3539 0.3929 24.5 5.5 19.0
8 Brad Brach 0.1905 0.2415 0.2679 19.3 2.6 16.8
9 Craig Kimbrel 0.2964 0.3590 0.5022 45.6 29.1 16.5
10 Jonathan Papelbon 0.2528 0.3003 0.3239 17.8 1.8 16.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jose Quintana 0.1981 0.1343 0.1426 39.6 5.1 34.6
2 Aaron Laffey 0.1981 0.1152 0.1119 43.1 8.8 34.3
3 Dallas Keuchel 0.1981 0.1156 0.1008 42.1 12.1 30.0
4 Wei-Yin Chen 0.0924 0.1210 0.1883 66.7 40.9 25.8
5 Lucas Harrell 0.1782 0.1515 0.1693 19.2 0.5 18.7
6 Hisashi Iwakuma 0.1176 0.1494 0.1946 32.6 14.5 18.0
7 Eric Stults 0.1981 0.1560 0.1332 32.7 16.5 16.2
8 Cole De Vries 0.1981 0.1218 0.1547 21.6 5.9 15.8
9 Samuel Deduno 0.1981 0.1517 0.1643 16.7 1.6 15.1
10 Joe Kelly 0.1981 0.1315 0.1641 22.1 7.0 15.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Lucas Harrell 0.1248 0.1515 0.1693 22.7 0.5 22.2
2 Lance Lynn 0.1638 0.1811 0.2419 45.4 32.5 13.0
3 Zack Greinke 0.2728 0.2584 0.2304 51.7 39.3 12.4
4 Tom Wilhelmsen 0.1250 0.1568 0.2669 40.7 30.2 10.4
5 Rafael Soriano 0.2835 0.2483 0.2473 14.9 5.1 9.8
6 Craig Stammen 0.1424 0.1686 0.2351 28.0 18.2 9.8
7 Anthony Swarzak 0.1097 0.1331 0.1501 9.6 0.1 9.5
8 Mat Latos 0.2362 0.2259 0.2156 32.3 23.6 8.7
9 Adam Ottavino 0.1501 0.1744 0.2389 24.3 16.0 8.3
10 Kyle Kendrick 0.1117 0.1235 0.1721 29.2 21.2 8.1

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Barry Zito 0.4688
0.2924
(132.8)
0.1923
(161.8)
0.2821
(138.3)
0.3043
(137.5)
Gio Gonzalez 0.6562
0.3959
(205.7)
0.3250
(211.5)
0.3676
(226.1)
0.4242
(197.0)
David Price 0.6452
0.4593
(146.9)
0.3250
(205.8)
0.4492
(152.4)
0.4688
(153.9)
Lance Lynn 0.5143
0.1509
(262.8)
0.0909
(260.0)
0.1161
(286.1)
0.2414
(208.7)
R.A. Dickey 0.5882
0.3482
(213.1)
0.2000
(291.3)
0.3062
(248.8)
0.3929
(188.2)
Cliff Lee 0.2000
0.5084
(269.8)
0.3243
(168.0)
0.4669
(237.6)
0.5517
(291.4)
Chris Sale 0.5667
0.3648
(148.0)
0.0732
(323.9)
0.3489
(157.6)
0.3846
(146.5)
Jon Lester 0.2727
0.4803
(190.8)
0.3784
(157.3)
0.4311
(150.7)
0.5333
(221.6)
Johnny Cueto 0.5758
0.3531
(188.7)
0.2857
(191.9)
0.3617
(178.0)
0.3448
(211.9)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Lucas Harrell 0.0895 0.3438 201.8
2 Phil Hughes 0.2627 0.5000 185.1
3 Jeff Samardzija 0.0589 0.3214 182.4
4 Wade Miley 0.3043 0.5000 149.7
5 Ricky Romero 0.4505 0.2812 148.8
6 Jered Weaver 0.4609 0.6667 144.5
7 A.J. Burnett 0.3423 0.5161 139.3
8 Randy Wolf 0.3465 0.1667 132.8
9 Francisco Liriano 0.3561 0.1765 131.5
10 Kyle Lohse 0.3228 0.4848 131.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Matt Harrison 0.2381 0.5625 219.4
2 Wade Miley 0.1786 0.5000 199.7
3 Jarrod Parker 0.1111 0.4483 197.7
4 Stephen Strasburg 0.1852 0.5357 180.6
5 Jered Weaver 0.3590 0.6667 172.7
6 Cole Hamels 0.2821 0.5484 166.8
7 Scott Diamond 0.1379 0.4444 166.0
8 Yu Darvish 0.2799 0.5517 161.4
9 Tommy Milone 0.1429 0.4194 160.2
10 A.J. Burnett 0.2632 0.5161 152.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Phil Hughes 0.2007 0.5000 232.8
2 Lucas Harrell 0.0566 0.3438 226.2
3 Jeff Samardzija 0.0491 0.3214 187.1
4 Jered Weaver 0.4212 0.6667 171.3
5 Félix Doubront 0.1444 0.3793 156.9
6 Kevin Correia 0.1490 0.3750 154.7
7 Tim Hudson 0.3632 0.5714 145.8
8 Josh Beckett 0.4331 0.2500 143.6
9 Matt Harrison 0.3923 0.5625 137.2
10 Kyle Kendrick 0.0871 0.2973 132.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Wade Miley 0.2593 0.5000 200.5
2 Jeff Samardzija 0.0704 0.3214 187.0
3 A.J. Burnett 0.3214 0.5161 172.2
4 Ricky Romero 0.4839 0.2812 161.6
5 Tim Lincecum 0.5000 0.3030 156.2
6 Randy Wolf 0.3929 0.1667 152.8
7 Kyle Lohse 0.3182 0.4848 150.6
8 Ubaldo Jiménez 0.4839 0.2903 149.6
9 Jeremy Guthrie 0.4286 0.2424 140.7
10 James McDonald 0.2121 0.4000 139.4

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Chris Sale 0.0732 0.3648 0.5667 323.9 148.0 175.9
2 Jarrod Parker 0.1111 0.3404 0.4483 197.7 73.4 124.3
3 Tommy Milone 0.1429 0.3479 0.4194 160.2 48.5 111.7
4 Matt Harrison 0.2381 0.4271 0.5625 219.4 109.7 109.7
5 Stephen Strasburg 0.1852 0.4136 0.5357 180.6 73.1 107.5
6 Yu Darvish 0.2799 0.4529 0.5517 161.4 72.4 89.0
7 Mat Latos 0.2500 0.4199 0.4242 86.0 5.0 81.0
8 R.A. Dickey 0.2000 0.3482 0.5882 291.3 213.1 78.2
9 Rhiner Cruz 0.2799 0.0408 0.0192 84.7 8.0 76.6
10 James Shields 0.3000 0.4444 0.4545 76.1 0.1 76.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kelvin Herrera 0.2799 0.1020 0.0526 82.9 20.5 62.4
2 Rhiner Cruz 0.2799 0.0408 0.0192 69.4 8.0 61.4
3 Chad Durbin 0.2799 0.0370 0.0526 61.9 1.4 60.5
4 Steve Delabar 0.2799 0.0652 0.0656 62.5 2.7 59.8
5 Brad Brach 0.2799 0.0725 0.0299 73.8 14.8 59.1
6 Ryan Cook 0.2799 0.0635 0.0845 60.2 3.1 57.1
7 Dale Thayer 0.2799 0.0536 0.0312 61.6 7.6 54.0
8 Jim Miller 0.2799 0.0556 0.0606 49.2 1.1 48.1
9 Phil Hughes 0.2007 0.2627 0.5000 232.8 185.1 47.7
10 Félix Doubront 0.1444 0.2104 0.3793 156.9 112.6 44.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Alexi Ogando 0.4444 0.2042 0.0345 105.8 47.3 58.5
2 Adam Wainwright 0.5600 0.4743 0.4375 95.4 39.0 56.4
3 Adam Ottavino 0.2727 0.0888 0.0943 57.9 1.6 56.3
4 Freddy Garcia 0.3913 0.2541 0.2333 69.3 14.2 55.0
5 Esmil Rogers 0.2593 0.0924 0.0448 72.0 20.1 51.8
6 Anthony Swarzak 0.2222 0.0802 0.0682 60.5 9.2 51.3
7 Wade Miley 0.2593 0.3043 0.5000 200.5 149.7 50.7
8 Brett Myers 0.2857 0.0920 0.0429 64.0 16.1 47.8
9 Joe Blanton 0.2632 0.3028 0.3226 54.1 7.7 46.4
10 Mike Minor 0.2812 0.3250 0.3667 67.8 22.9 44.9

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Alfredo Aceves 0.3623
0.0200
(121.5)
0.0488
(119.2)
0.0158
(123.3)
0.0000
(120.5)
Aroldis Chapman 0.5588
0.0180
(147.6)
0.0278
(151.2)
0.0222
(146.7)
0.0000
(146.3)
Tyler Clippard 0.4324
0.0267
(122.8)
0.0185
(132.2)
0.0242
(123.8)
0.0000
(124.0)
Jim Johnson 0.7183
0.4868
(60.7)
0.1042
(169.7)
0.4492
(71.1)
0.0000
(185.5)
Rafael Soriano 0.6087
0.0378
(157.7)
0.2895
(93.7)
0.0392
(157.5)
0.0000
(161.8)
Tom Wilhelmsen 0.3973
0.0256
(119.2)
0.0476
(119.5)
0.0172
(122.2)
0.0000
(120.2)
Fernando Rodney 0.6316
0.0000
(176.5)
0.1944
(128.0)
0.0000
(176.7)
0.0000
(170.0)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brett Myers 1.0113 0.2714 202.8
2 Heath Bell 0.6960 0.2603 126.3
3 Brandon League 0.6075 0.2027 123.6
4 Carlos Marmol 0.7223 0.3279 98.9
5 Ernesto Frieri 0.0203 0.3433 85.3
6 Casey Janssen 0.0000 0.3548 84.5
7 Matt Thornton 0.3309 0.0405 78.8
8 Santiago Casilla 0.0520 0.3425 77.4
9 Jonathan Papelbon 0.7840 0.5429 70.1
10 John Axford 0.6619 0.4667 62.3

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Motte 0.0755 0.6269 158.5
2 Rafael Betancourt 0.0600 0.5167 111.7
3 Addison Reed 0.0714 0.4677 98.3
4 Ernesto Frieri 0.0244 0.3433 90.3
5 Grant Balfour 0.0435 0.3200 84.8
6 Casey Janssen 0.0250 0.3548 83.9
7 Chris Sale 0.1220 0.0000 81.2
8 Joel Hanrahan 0.2692 0.5714 81.0
9 Kenley Jansen 0.0811 0.3846 80.7
10 Francisco Rodríguez 0.3137 0.0385 78.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Heath Bell 0.6875 0.2603 123.6
2 Brandon League 0.5982 0.2027 120.6
3 Carlos Marmol 0.6961 0.3279 92.2
4 Brett Myers 0.5865 0.2714 87.1
5 Ernesto Frieri 0.0192 0.3433 85.8
6 Casey Janssen 0.0000 0.3548 84.7
7 Matt Thornton 0.3365 0.0405 80.1
8 Santiago Casilla 0.0500 0.3425 78.2
9 Jonathan Papelbon 0.7547 0.5429 61.6
10 Jose Valverde 0.6909 0.4930 59.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jason Motte 0.0000 0.6269 166.9
2 Chris Perez 0.0000 0.6393 147.8
3 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.6667 147.4
4 Jonathan Papelbon 0.0000 0.5429 146.0
5 Joel Hanrahan 0.0000 0.5714 137.9
6 Joe Nathan 0.0000 0.5606 136.7
7 Jose Valverde 0.0000 0.4930 136.5
8 John Axford 0.0000 0.4667 135.8
9 J.J. Putz 0.0000 0.5614 116.1
10 Rafael Betancourt 0.0000 0.5167 115.2

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jason Motte 0.0755 0.5458 0.6269 158.5 21.0 137.5
2 Jim Johnson 0.1042 0.4868 0.7183 169.7 60.7 109.0
3 Rafael Betancourt 0.0600 0.4516 0.5167 111.7 14.0 97.8
4 Chris Sale 0.1220 0.0000 0.0000 81.2 4.5 76.7
5 Kenley Jansen 0.0811 0.3588 0.3846 80.7 5.0 75.7
6 Chris Perez 0.3333 0.6015 0.6393 78.1 7.7 70.4
7 Joel Hanrahan 0.2692 0.6087 0.5714 81.0 11.0 70.1
8 Craig Kimbrel 0.3673 0.6799 0.6667 73.0 4.4 68.6
9 Addison Reed 0.0714 0.3354 0.4677 98.3 30.1 68.2
10 Francisco Rodríguez 0.3137 0.0789 0.0385 78.8 14.1 64.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jose Quintana 0.0290 0.0000 0.0000 19.3 3.3 16.0
2 Joe Kelly 0.0290 0.0000 0.0000 15.6 2.7 12.9
3 Aaron Laffey 0.0290 0.0000 0.0000 14.6 2.5 12.1
4 Drew Smyly 0.0290 0.0000 0.0000 14.2 2.4 11.7
5 David Phelps 0.0290 0.0000 0.0000 14.1 2.4 11.7
6 Eric Stults 0.0290 0.0000 0.0000 14.1 2.4 11.6
7 Will Smith 0.0290 0.0000 0.0000 13.5 2.3 11.2
8 Dallas Keuchel 0.0290 0.0000 0.0000 12.8 2.2 10.6
9 Christian Friedrich 0.0290 0.0000 0.0000 12.8 2.2 10.6
10 Cole De Vries 0.0290 0.0000 0.0000 12.8 2.2 10.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jason Motte 0.0000 0.5458 0.6269 166.9 21.0 145.9
2 Craig Kimbrel 0.0000 0.6799 0.6667 147.4 4.4 143.0
3 Chris Perez 0.0000 0.6015 0.6393 147.8 7.7 140.1
4 Joel Hanrahan 0.0000 0.6087 0.5714 137.9 11.0 126.9
5 Jim Johnson 0.0000 0.4868 0.7183 185.5 60.7 124.8
6 Joe Nathan 0.0000 0.6863 0.5606 136.7 33.8 102.9
7 Rafael Betancourt 0.0000 0.4516 0.5167 115.2 14.0 101.2
8 J.J. Putz 0.0000 0.6585 0.5614 116.1 22.4 93.7
9 Kenley Jansen 0.0000 0.3588 0.3846 89.7 5.0 84.7
10 Jose Valverde 0.0000 0.6817 0.4930 136.5 57.2 79.3

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jonathan Sánchez 8.0722
4.3200
(1280.2)
3.7821
(1385.5)
4.2824
(1268.9)
4.3580
(1269.2)
Kris Medlen 1.5652
3.6852
(1017.7)
3.9212
(1252.7)
3.5454
(982.6)
3.8275
(1089.4)
Ricky Romero 5.7680
3.8609
(1715.9)
3.5131
(1825.3)
3.9993
(1541.3)
3.7233
(1833.7)
Kyle Lohse 2.8578
4.4477
(1233.0)
4.2004
(1205.8)
4.5301
(1366.6)
4.3654
(1158.1)
Tim Lincecum 5.1774
3.1119
(1838.4)
3.1116
(1660.6)
3.3052
(1619.3)
2.9196
(2000.7)
Nick Blackburn 7.3885
4.9618
(1180.8)
4.5302
(1279.2)
4.9644
(1146.7)
4.9592
(1184.0)
Ubaldo Jiménez 5.4000
3.6793
(1516.2)
3.8557
(1200.5)
3.8349
(1332.8)
3.5231
(1645.5)
Jon Lester 4.8214
3.5194
(1283.2)
3.4947
(1115.8)
3.5787
(1168.0)
3.4597
(1339.4)
Fernando Rodney 0.6027
4.1203
(946.1)
4.2217
(1035.5)
3.9281
(912.2)
4.3200
(1001.1)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jose Quintana 6.1364 3.7628 1255.7
2 R.A. Dickey 4.1665 2.7347 1176.4
3 Scott Diamond 5.2812 3.5376 1128.7
4 Luke Hochevar 4.5307 5.7302 1089.9
5 Justin Masterson 3.9082 4.9289 1072.3
6 Roy Halladay 3.0339 4.4904 1046.1
7 Randy Wolf 4.3940 5.6512 992.5
8 Tommy Hanson 3.3512 4.4828 985.1
9 Chris Volstad 4.6449 6.3054 924.4
10 Wade Miley 4.6308 3.3288 919.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Randy Wolf 3.8194 5.6512 1243.4
2 Philip Humber 3.8897 6.4412 1154.3
3 A.J. Burnett 4.8120 3.5140 1149.7
4 Roy Halladay 2.7231 4.4904 1107.4
5 Ervin Santana 3.8151 5.1573 984.9
6 Clay Buchholz 3.3166 4.5634 957.4
7 Jake Peavy 4.3990 3.3699 954.5
8 Josh Tomlin 4.2346 6.3581 935.8
9 Justin Masterson 3.8635 4.9289 917.2
10 Craig Stammen 4.5366 2.3434 831.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 R.A. Dickey 4.5731 2.7347 1620.3
2 Johnny Cueto 4.2321 2.7788 1210.0
3 Luke Hochevar 4.4006 5.7302 1136.2
4 Wei-Yin Chen 5.4119 4.0173 1066.6
5 Chris Volstad 4.4695 6.3054 976.8
6 Jeremy Hellickson 4.4676 3.1017 945.0
7 Scott Diamond 4.9384 3.5376 935.5
8 Tommy Hunter 3.9575 5.4539 909.3
9 Francisco Liriano 4.1365 5.3426 898.6
10 Ervin Santana 4.0736 5.1573 897.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Scott Diamond 5.6450 3.5376 1385.3
2 Justin Masterson 3.7059 4.9289 1259.6
3 Jose Quintana 6.1364 3.7628 1253.2
4 Randy Wolf 4.0449 5.6512 1239.6
5 Roy Halladay 2.8326 4.4904 1179.0
6 Wade Miley 4.9437 3.3288 1168.3
7 Tommy Hanson 3.2049 4.4828 1099.8
8 Nate Jones 6.1644 2.3860 1086.9
9 Chris Tillman 6.2000 2.9302 1076.6
10 Josh Johnson 2.6573 3.8101 1053.4

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Christian Friedrich 3.9591 6.2653 6.1654 811.8 23.7 788.1
2 A.J. Burnett 4.8120 4.1385 3.5140 1149.7 392.9 756.8
3 Rhiner Cruz 3.9591 6.1722 6.0545 516.7 11.4 505.3
4 Brandon Morrow 4.5028 3.8801 2.9599 804.3 381.7 422.6
5 Clay Buchholz 3.3166 4.0481 4.5634 957.4 543.8 413.6
6 Will Smith 3.9591 5.7620 5.3197 517.8 110.7 407.1
7 Jake Peavy 4.3990 4.1976 3.3699 954.5 586.5 368.0
8 Chris Capuano 4.2944 4.0645 3.7210 511.7 147.6 364.1
9 Henderson Alvarez 3.8558 4.5223 4.8523 761.4 397.7 363.7
10 Marco Estrada 4.2583 3.8288 3.6434 375.4 12.7 362.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Christian Friedrich 3.9591 6.2653 6.1654 865.9 23.7 842.2
2 Rhiner Cruz 3.9591 6.1722 6.0545 553.1 11.4 541.7
3 Wei-Yin Chen 5.4119 4.9143 4.0173 1066.6 600.5 466.1
4 Will Smith 3.9591 5.7620 5.3197 574.7 110.7 464.0
5 Mark Buehrle 4.6223 4.1525 3.7364 658.5 209.7 448.8
6 R.A. Dickey 4.5731 4.1665 2.7347 1620.3 1176.4 443.9
7 Matt Cain 3.8860 3.4579 2.7903 880.5 442.2 438.3
8 P.J. Walters 3.9591 5.5161 5.6919 494.1 91.8 402.4
9 Jeremy Hellickson 4.4676 4.0297 3.1017 945.0 567.0 378.0
10 Dallas Keuchel 3.9591 5.0098 5.2734 529.7 160.8 368.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Lucas Harrell 5.0455 4.4374 3.7642 921.3 422.1 499.2
2 Josh Johnson 2.6573 3.1210 3.8101 1053.4 679.8 373.5
3 Clay Buchholz 3.6247 4.0481 4.5634 887.0 543.8 343.2
4 Craig Stammen 4.9333 4.0990 2.3434 896.4 589.3 307.1
5 Jeremy Guthrie 4.1966 4.5247 4.7560 572.5 310.5 262.0
6 Scott Diamond 5.6450 5.2812 3.5376 1385.3 1128.7 256.6
7 Phil Hughes 4.8411 4.5260 4.1864 397.3 144.1 253.2
8 Wade Miley 4.9437 4.6308 3.3288 1168.3 919.4 248.9
9 Jared Hughes 5.4000 4.6120 2.8546 751.5 503.9 247.6
10 Randy Wolf 4.0449 4.3940 5.6512 1239.6 992.5 247.1

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Jonathan Sánchez 2.0876
1.5088
(211.8)
1.3385
(249.7)
1.5209
(207.9)
1.4967
(211.0)
Ricky Romero 1.6740
1.3418
(332.6)
1.2583
(356.6)
1.4049
(280.2)
1.2791
(372.4)
Chris Tillman 1.0465
1.6099
(171.5)
1.4804
(145.5)
1.5765
(160.0)
1.6444
(188.6)
Kyle Lohse 1.0900
1.3679
(180.4)
1.3317
(196.3)
1.3939
(203.0)
1.3420
(170.7)
Tommy Hanson 1.4542
1.2202
(230.6)
1.2170
(191.4)
1.2737
(189.8)
1.1675
(259.5)
Tim Lincecum 1.4677
1.2227
(259.1)
1.2258
(211.5)
1.2609
(227.4)
1.1848
(278.3)
Randy Wolf 1.5729
1.3822
(181.6)
1.3112
(193.0)
1.4393
(141.5)
1.3258
(210.7)
Ubaldo Jiménez 1.6132
1.3285
(284.7)
1.2909
(271.1)
1.3606
(258.8)
1.2964
(298.8)
Wade Miley 1.1815
1.5401
(233.7)
1.4416
(198.2)
1.4975
(199.4)
1.5845
(281.4)
Kris Medlen 0.9130
1.2738
(151.7)
1.2863
(186.6)
1.2600
(144.6)
1.2880
(166.7)
Fernando Rodney 0.7768
1.4709
(176.3)
1.4712
(191.8)
1.4429
(168.4)
1.5000
(188.6)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Scott Diamond 1.6353 1.2428 231.0
2 R.A. Dickey 1.3435 1.0528 205.5
3 Steve Delabar 1.8621 1.0909 192.4
4 Joe Kelly 1.8067 1.3832 162.0
5 Derek Lowe 1.4493 1.6192 152.9
6 Rick Porcello 1.4072 1.5312 151.1
7 Aroldis Chapman 1.4141 0.8093 147.9
8 Jeff Samardzija 1.4909 1.2195 146.3
9 Vance Worley 1.3334 1.5113 145.7

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Mike Minor 1.4326 1.1543 192.1
2 R.A. Dickey 1.2544 1.0528 173.6
3 Jonathon Niese 1.4042 1.1716 171.9
4 Daniel Bard 1.1318 1.7360 171.3
5 Gio Gonzalez 1.3465 1.1288 167.1
6 Tyson Ross 1.3448 1.8136 165.3
7 Henderson Alvarez 1.2539 1.4413 162.8
8 Vance Worley 1.2643 1.5113 154.2
9 A.J. Burnett 1.4336 1.2405 152.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 R.A. Dickey 1.4382 1.0528 293.5
2 Mike Fiers 1.7706 1.2611 237.5
3 Scott Diamond 1.5577 1.2428 175.7
4 Matt Cain 1.3059 1.0395 173.0
5 Wei-Yin Chen 1.5275 1.2612 161.5
6 Derek Lowe 1.4465 1.6192 154.6
7 Will Smith 1.2954 1.6059 150.2
8 Jeff Samardzija 1.4950 1.2195 149.4
9 Tyson Ross 1.4726 1.8136 140.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Scott Diamond 1.7177 1.2428 300.3
2 Steve Delabar 1.8621 1.0909 196.4
3 Josh Johnson 1.1111 1.2805 178.5
4 Lucas Harrell 1.6212 1.3580 172.7
5 Aroldis Chapman 1.4863 0.8093 171.9
6 Jeremy Guthrie 1.2472 1.4092 170.5
7 Joe Kelly 1.8067 1.3832 168.7
8 Justin Masterson 1.3235 1.4540 167.4
9 Jeff Samardzija 1.4867 1.2195 153.9

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Minor 1.4326 1.3037 1.1543 192.1 58.6 133.6
2 Edwin Jackson 1.3818 1.2996 1.2179 118.1 10.0 108.1
3 Will Smith 1.2954 1.6214 1.6059 128.7 21.2 107.5
4 A.J. Burnett 1.4336 1.3841 1.2405 152.0 63.5 88.6
5 Chris Capuano 1.3374 1.2913 1.2202 84.0 1.7 82.2
6 Jonathon Niese 1.4042 1.3607 1.1716 171.9 94.6 77.3
7 Joe Blanton 1.3800 1.3209 1.2618 83.7 8.0 75.7
8 Christian Friedrich 1.2954 1.7404 1.5591 104.8 42.3 62.5
9 Rhiner Cruz 1.2954 1.9777 1.7091 108.3 50.5 57.8
10 Homer Bailey 1.3415 1.3305 1.2404 75.7 18.5 57.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Mike Fiers 1.7706 1.4668 1.2611 237.5 73.6 163.8
2 Will Smith 1.2954 1.6214 1.6059 150.2 21.2 129.0
3 Wei-Yin Chen 1.5275 1.3923 1.2612 161.5 50.7 110.8
4 Samuel Deduno 1.2954 1.6685 1.5443 110.3 19.2 91.1
5 R.A. Dickey 1.4382 1.3435 1.0528 293.5 205.5 87.9
6 Christian Friedrich 1.2954 1.7404 1.5591 125.4 42.3 83.0
7 P.J. Walters 1.2954 1.5887 1.5081 76.3 3.1 73.2
8 Rhiner Cruz 1.2954 1.9777 1.7091 122.1 50.5 71.6
9 Clayton Kershaw 1.2229 1.1450 1.0234 117.7 47.4 70.3
10 Matt Cain 1.3059 1.2269 1.0395 173.0 103.7 69.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Lucas Harrell 1.6212 1.5035 1.3580 172.7 63.3 109.5
2 Jeremy Guthrie 1.2472 1.3543 1.4092 170.5 97.7 72.8
3 Scott Diamond 1.7177 1.6353 1.2428 300.3 231.0 69.3
4 Josh Johnson 1.1111 1.1938 1.2805 178.5 124.3 54.3
5 Adam Ottavino 1.6228 1.4857 1.3924 59.7 8.2 51.5
6 Tom Wilhelmsen 1.6356 1.5016 1.1092 153.9 105.4 48.5
7 Wade Miley 1.5845 1.5401 1.1815 281.4 233.7 47.7
8 Nate Jones 1.8555 1.7128 1.3814 126.4 79.0 47.4
9 Craig Stammen 1.4370 1.3259 1.2000 67.6 21.0 46.5
10 Clay Buchholz 1.3196 1.3987 1.3257 48.5 3.2 45.3