2017 Projection Evaluation
Summary
Batting Projection Accuracy
Plate Appearances (PA)
Everybody Missed for Plate Appearances (PA)
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Eaton | 107 |
658
(551.4)
|
622
(515.0)
|
651
(543.7)
|
666
(559.0)
|
Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martín Prado | 569 | 147 | 422.5 |
| 2 | Travis Jankowski | 494 | 87 | 407.2 |
| 3 | Daniel Vogelbach | 430 | 31 | 399.1 |
| 4 | Chris Marrero | 440 | 41 | 399.0 |
| 5 | Jhonny Peralta | 452 | 58 | 393.9 |
| 6 | Tyler Naquin | 431 | 40 | 390.7 |
| 7 | Lane Adams | 500 | 122 | 378.0 |
| 8 | Leonys Martin | 484 | 138 | 346.4 |
| 9 | AJ Reed | 342 | 6 | 336.1 |
| 10 | Adrián González | 575 | 252 | 323.3 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eric Thames | 100 | 551 | 451.0 |
| 2 | Cody Bellinger | 100 | 548 | 448.0 |
| 3 | Martín Prado | 575 | 147 | 428.0 |
| 4 | Aaron Judge | 253 | 678 | 425.0 |
| 5 | Johnny Giavotella | 432 | 10 | 422.0 |
| 6 | Billy Burns | 424 | 6 | 418.0 |
| 7 | Pedro Álvarez | 436 | 34 | 402.0 |
| 8 | Andrew Benintendi | 268 | 658 | 390.0 |
| 9 | Leonys Martin | 519 | 138 | 381.0 |
| 10 | Kirk Nieuwenhuis | 409 | 31 | 378.0 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travis Jankowski | 584 | 87 | 497.5 |
| 2 | Cody Bellinger | 51 | 548 | 496.9 |
| 3 | Chris Taylor | 91 | 568 | 476.9 |
| 4 | Paul DeJong | 1 | 443 | 442.0 |
| 5 | Mark Reynolds | 164 | 593 | 429.0 |
| 6 | Yolmer Sánchez | 106 | 534 | 428.5 |
| 7 | Ben Gamel | 133 | 550 | 417.4 |
| 8 | Tommy Pham | 114 | 530 | 415.8 |
| 9 | Jorge Bonifacio | 6 | 422 | 415.5 |
| 10 | Ian Happ | 1 | 413 | 412.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Fowler | 582 | 0 | 582.0 |
| 2 | Miguel Andujar | 576 | 8 | 568.0 |
| 3 | Jack Reinheimer | 572 | 5 | 567.0 |
| 4 | Tim Locastro | 562 | 1 | 561.0 |
| 5 | Joey Wendle | 571 | 14 | 557.0 |
| 6 | Christian Walker | 567 | 15 | 552.0 |
| 7 | Alex Verdugo | 570 | 25 | 545.0 |
| 8 | AJ Reed | 540 | 6 | 534.0 |
| 9 | Christopher Bostick | 560 | 32 | 528.0 |
| 10 | Ryan McMahon | 552 | 24 | 528.0 |
Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eric Thames | 100 | 509 | 551 | 451.0 | 41.9 | 409.1 |
| 2 | Manuel Margot | 226 | 553 | 529 | 303.0 | 23.8 | 279.2 |
| 3 | Josh Bell | 283 | 562 | 620 | 337.0 | 58.2 | 278.8 |
| 4 | Trey Mancini | 212 | 479 | 586 | 374.0 | 106.8 | 267.2 |
| 5 | Andrew Benintendi | 268 | 531 | 658 | 390.0 | 127.3 | 262.7 |
| 6 | Alex Bregman | 320 | 571 | 626 | 306.0 | 55.4 | 250.6 |
| 7 | Ryon Healy | 350 | 590 | 605 | 255.0 | 15.0 | 240.0 |
| 8 | Kyle Schwarber | 237 | 500 | 486 | 249.0 | 14.0 | 235.0 |
| 9 | Dansby Swanson | 282 | 587 | 551 | 269.0 | 36.1 | 232.9 |
| 10 | Matt Davidson | 205 | 436 | 443 | 238.0 | 6.9 | 231.1 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jorge Bonifacio | 6 | 284 | 422 | 415.5 | 137.8 | 277.8 |
| 2 | Bradley Zimmer | 1 | 262 | 332 | 331.0 | 69.5 | 261.5 |
| 3 | Adam Engel | 26 | 280 | 336 | 310.1 | 56.1 | 254.1 |
| 4 | Nick Williams | 34 | 286 | 343 | 309.4 | 56.7 | 252.7 |
| 5 | Carlos Asuaje | 60 | 309 | 343 | 282.7 | 33.9 | 248.9 |
| 6 | Ian Happ | 1 | 244 | 413 | 412.0 | 169.0 | 243.0 |
| 7 | Paul DeJong | 1 | 240 | 443 | 442.0 | 203.0 | 239.0 |
| 8 | Johan Camargo | 20 | 260 | 256 | 236.2 | 4.4 | 231.8 |
| 9 | Cody Bellinger | 51 | 283 | 548 | 496.9 | 265.4 | 231.5 |
| 10 | Ben Gamel | 133 | 356 | 550 | 417.4 | 193.7 | 223.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raimel Tapia | 631 | 329 | 171 | 460.0 | 157.9 | 302.1 |
| 2 | Tyler Wade | 582 | 292 | 63 | 519.0 | 228.5 | 290.5 |
| 3 | Dustin Fowler | 582 | 292 | 0 | 582.0 | 291.5 | 290.5 |
| 4 | Derek Fisher | 572 | 286 | 166 | 406.0 | 120.5 | 285.5 |
| 5 | Miguel Andujar | 576 | 291 | 8 | 568.0 | 283.2 | 284.8 |
| 6 | Alex Verdugo | 570 | 286 | 25 | 545.0 | 260.5 | 284.5 |
| 7 | Jack Reinheimer | 572 | 289 | 5 | 567.0 | 284.3 | 282.7 |
| 8 | Andrew Stevenson | 566 | 284 | 66 | 500.0 | 217.5 | 282.5 |
| 9 | Richard Urena | 576 | 294 | 75 | 501.0 | 219.4 | 281.6 |
| 10 | Tim Locastro | 562 | 282 | 1 | 561.0 | 280.5 | 280.5 |
wOBA
Everybody Missed for wOBA
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Cozart | 0.3922 |
0.2954
(43.4)
|
0.2981
(44.5)
|
0.2950
(44.1)
|
0.2958
(42.8)
|
| Rougned Odor | 0.2753 |
0.3363
(47.0)
|
0.3209
(33.7)
|
0.3353
(45.7)
|
0.3373
(48.2)
|
| Aaron Judge | 0.4344 |
0.3266
(65.5)
|
0.2985
(87.9)
|
0.3273
(65.7)
|
0.3260
(65.4)
|
| Justin Smoak | 0.3726 |
0.3121
(31.4)
|
0.3080
(37.1)
|
0.3096
(33.6)
|
0.3146
(29.2)
|
| José Ramírez | 0.3988 |
0.3259
(39.8)
|
0.3154
(49.7)
|
0.3288
(38.6)
|
0.3230
(41.2)
|
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.3897 |
0.3274
(34.7)
|
0.3184
(44.2)
|
0.3322
(32.1)
|
0.3225
(37.5)
|
| Charlie Blackmon | 0.4162 |
0.3505
(39.5)
|
0.3529
(41.3)
|
0.3417
(46.6)
|
0.3592
(32.6)
|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.3169 |
0.3877
(43.4)
|
0.3860
(39.9)
|
0.3941
(46.2)
|
0.3813
(40.4)
|
| José Bautista | 0.2963 |
0.3669
(56.1)
|
0.3666
(52.5)
|
0.3646
(53.8)
|
0.3693
(58.3)
|
| Alex Gordon | 0.2708 |
0.3199
(32.7)
|
0.3240
(32.2)
|
0.3198
(32.0)
|
0.3200
(33.2)
|
| Tommy Pham | 0.3966 |
0.3145
(37.6)
|
0.3280
(33.0)
|
0.3108
(40.1)
|
0.3182
(35.2)
|
| Marwin Gonzalez | 0.3820 |
0.2962
(38.4)
|
0.3062
(35.8)
|
0.2922
(41.0)
|
0.3002
(35.9)
|
Individual Misses for wOBA
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.3126 | 0.3880 | 37.0 |
| 2 | Albert Pujols | 0.3329 | 0.2891 | 35.0 |
| 3 | Cody Bellinger | 0.3140 | 0.3873 | 34.0 |
| 4 | Manny Machado | 0.3669 | 0.3291 | 33.8 |
| 5 | J.D. Martinez | 0.3560 | 0.4345 | 32.9 |
| 6 | Mark Trumbo | 0.3383 | 0.2950 | 32.9 |
| 7 | Maikel Franco | 0.3350 | 0.2938 | 32.6 |
| 8 | Avisaíl García | 0.3099 | 0.3781 | 32.0 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.3013 | 0.3880 | 46.3 |
| 2 | Avisaíl García | 0.3011 | 0.3781 | 39.7 |
| 3 | Chris Taylor | 0.2869 | 0.3613 | 38.7 |
| 4 | Adam Engel | 0.3267 | 0.2242 | 36.5 |
| 5 | Anthony Rendon | 0.3324 | 0.3971 | 35.3 |
| 6 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.3630 | 0.4158 | 32.1 |
| 7 | Logan Morrison | 0.3085 | 0.3671 | 31.4 |
| 8 | Michael Conforto | 0.3188 | 0.3955 | 31.0 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albert Pujols | 0.3383 | 0.2891 | 37.8 |
| 2 | Cody Bellinger | 0.3084 | 0.3873 | 37.6 |
| 3 | J.D. Martinez | 0.3476 | 0.4345 | 37.5 |
| 4 | Manny Machado | 0.3710 | 0.3291 | 36.0 |
| 5 | Mark Trumbo | 0.3407 | 0.2950 | 33.8 |
| 6 | Maikel Franco | 0.3367 | 0.2938 | 33.1 |
| 7 | Chris Taylor | 0.2962 | 0.3613 | 31.2 |
| 8 | Scooter Gennett | 0.2945 | 0.3673 | 31.1 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.2980 | 0.3880 | 44.9 |
| 2 | Avisaíl García | 0.3053 | 0.3781 | 34.1 |
| 3 | Albert Pujols | 0.3275 | 0.2891 | 32.1 |
| 4 | Maikel Franco | 0.3332 | 0.2938 | 32.0 |
| 5 | Mark Trumbo | 0.3358 | 0.2950 | 31.9 |
| 6 | Manny Machado | 0.3629 | 0.3291 | 31.6 |
| 7 | Chris Taylor | 0.2943 | 0.3613 | 31.2 |
| 8 | Cody Bellinger | 0.3196 | 0.3873 | 30.5 |
Most Unique Misses for wOBA
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Judge | 0.2985 | 0.3266 | 0.4344 | 87.9 | 65.5 | 22.4 |
| 2 | Adam Engel | 0.3267 | 0.2652 | 0.2242 | 36.5 | 17.5 | 19.0 |
| 3 | Eric Thames | 0.3267 | 0.3526 | 0.3718 | 21.4 | 4.4 | 17.0 |
| 4 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.3028 | 0.3271 | 0.3451 | 20.3 | 3.8 | 16.5 |
| 5 | Joey Gallo | 0.3000 | 0.3227 | 0.3643 | 30.9 | 16.2 | 14.7 |
| 6 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.3630 | 0.3781 | 0.4158 | 32.1 | 18.3 | 13.9 |
| 7 | JT Riddle | 0.3267 | 0.2672 | 0.2708 | 15.4 | 1.9 | 13.5 |
| 8 | Mark Reynolds | 0.3205 | 0.3374 | 0.3575 | 18.2 | 5.3 | 12.9 |
| 9 | Bryce Harper | 0.3785 | 0.3970 | 0.4219 | 18.3 | 6.7 | 11.5 |
| 10 | Allen Córdoba | 0.3267 | 0.2720 | 0.2584 | 16.9 | 5.6 | 11.3 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Blackmon | 0.3417 | 0.3505 | 0.4162 | 46.6 | 39.5 | 7.1 |
| 2 | Edwin Encarnación | 0.3547 | 0.3615 | 0.3748 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 5.3 |
| 3 | Brian Dozier | 0.3317 | 0.3376 | 0.3647 | 16.1 | 11.2 | 4.9 |
| 4 | Victor Martinez | 0.3404 | 0.3283 | 0.3056 | 19.6 | 14.8 | 4.8 |
| 5 | Jose Iglesias | 0.3051 | 0.2945 | 0.2817 | 16.4 | 11.8 | 4.7 |
| 6 | J.D. Martinez | 0.3476 | 0.3560 | 0.4345 | 37.5 | 32.9 | 4.6 |
| 7 | Paul DeJong | 0.2795 | 0.2890 | 0.3595 | 30.9 | 26.3 | 4.6 |
| 8 | Steven Souza Jr. | 0.3030 | 0.3094 | 0.3481 | 21.5 | 17.0 | 4.6 |
| 9 | Scooter Gennett | 0.2945 | 0.3023 | 0.3673 | 31.1 | 26.7 | 4.4 |
| 10 | Martín Maldonado | 0.2904 | 0.2801 | 0.2751 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 4.4 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.2980 | 0.3126 | 0.3880 | 44.9 | 37.0 | 7.9 |
| 2 | David Peralta | 0.3494 | 0.3376 | 0.3425 | 10.9 | 3.6 | 7.2 |
| 3 | Mike Moustakas | 0.3164 | 0.3266 | 0.3488 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 5.6 |
| 4 | Adam Duvall | 0.3259 | 0.3187 | 0.3271 | 7.0 | 1.8 | 5.2 |
| 5 | Austin Hays | 0.3267 | 0.2056 | 0.2373 | 6.4 | 1.3 | 5.1 |
| 6 | Byron Buxton | 0.3188 | 0.3098 | 0.3101 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| 7 | Eric Thames | 0.3429 | 0.3526 | 0.3718 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
| 8 | Mike Aviles | 0.3267 | 0.2807 | 0.2572 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 4.5 |
| 9 | Jordan Luplow | 0.3267 | 0.2645 | 0.2837 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 4.1 |
| 10 | Steve Pearce | 0.3612 | 0.3503 | 0.3237 | 17.2 | 13.2 | 4.1 |
Strikeout Rate
Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Springer | 0.1765 |
0.2591
(56.4)
|
0.2464
(49.3)
|
0.2436
(49.0)
|
0.2746
(63.8)
|
| Justin Turner | 0.1031 |
0.1753
(43.0)
|
0.1770
(44.7)
|
0.1770
(46.0)
|
0.1735
(40.1)
|
| Justin Smoak | 0.2009 |
0.2757
(52.1)
|
0.2668
(47.4)
|
0.2775
(55.7)
|
0.2739
(48.6)
|
| Joey Votto | 0.1174 |
0.1920
(57.8)
|
0.1870
(55.2)
|
0.1898
(58.8)
|
0.1943
(56.7)
|
| Yonder Alonso | 0.2265 |
0.1332
(44.9)
|
0.1446
(38.3)
|
0.1373
(40.8)
|
0.1290
(49.0)
|
| José Bautista | 0.2478 |
0.1880
(36.2)
|
0.1738
(44.9)
|
0.1878
(33.7)
|
0.1882
(38.5)
|
| Kris Bryant | 0.1925 |
0.2555
(46.7)
|
0.2480
(42.6)
|
0.2403
(39.0)
|
0.2708
(54.4)
|
| Robbie Grossman | 0.1732 |
0.2421
(34.6)
|
0.2413
(34.9)
|
0.2342
(32.7)
|
0.2500
(36.6)
|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.1800 |
0.2261
(31.4)
|
0.2407
(40.8)
|
0.2212
(30.6)
|
0.2311
(32.1)
|
Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.2901 | 0.2355 | 42.7 |
| 2 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.1772 | 0.1099 | 42.0 |
| 3 | Rougned Odor | 0.1796 | 0.2488 | 40.5 |
| 4 | Evan Longoria | 0.2124 | 0.1610 | 39.6 |
| 5 | Austin Hedges | 0.1938 | 0.2926 | 38.2 |
| 6 | Logan Morrison | 0.1853 | 0.2479 | 33.3 |
| 7 | Tyler Flowers | 0.3015 | 0.2216 | 32.2 |
| 8 | Tommy Pham | 0.2736 | 0.2208 | 31.8 |
| 9 | Anthony Rendon | 0.1789 | 0.1355 | 30.5 |
| 10 | Anthony Rizzo | 0.1670 | 0.1302 | 30.3 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Davidson | 0.2098 | 0.3725 | 68.3 |
| 2 | Whit Merrifield | 0.2120 | 0.1397 | 50.9 |
| 3 | Alex Bregman | 0.2219 | 0.1550 | 47.2 |
| 4 | Adam Engel | 0.2115 | 0.3482 | 43.1 |
| 5 | Eric Thames | 0.2115 | 0.2958 | 41.8 |
| 6 | Hunter Renfroe | 0.1973 | 0.2923 | 41.4 |
| 7 | Keon Broxton | 0.2853 | 0.3780 | 39.0 |
| 8 | Ian Happ | 0.2115 | 0.3123 | 38.1 |
| 9 | Matt Holliday | 0.1698 | 0.2670 | 37.9 |
| 10 | Trevor Story | 0.2734 | 0.3441 | 34.6 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Hedges | 0.1756 | 0.2926 | 44.3 |
| 2 | Evan Longoria | 0.2075 | 0.1610 | 38.8 |
| 3 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.2807 | 0.2355 | 38.7 |
| 4 | Rougned Odor | 0.1800 | 0.2488 | 37.8 |
| 5 | Tommy Pham | 0.2764 | 0.2208 | 35.2 |
| 6 | Trevor Story | 0.2713 | 0.3441 | 34.4 |
| 7 | Tyler Flowers | 0.3024 | 0.2216 | 33.9 |
| 8 | Anthony Rendon | 0.1789 | 0.1355 | 32.8 |
| 9 | Matt Holliday | 0.1819 | 0.2670 | 31.7 |
| 10 | Kyle Schwarber | 0.2348 | 0.3086 | 30.6 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.2152 | 0.1099 | 61.3 |
| 2 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.2996 | 0.2355 | 46.7 |
| 3 | Rougned Odor | 0.1791 | 0.2488 | 43.2 |
| 4 | Evan Longoria | 0.2173 | 0.1610 | 40.4 |
| 5 | Logan Morrison | 0.1797 | 0.2479 | 38.9 |
| 6 | Austin Hedges | 0.2120 | 0.2926 | 32.2 |
| 7 | Tyler Flowers | 0.3006 | 0.2216 | 30.5 |
| 8 | Anthony Rizzo | 0.1709 | 0.1302 | 30.5 |
| 9 | Avisaíl García | 0.2484 | 0.1979 | 30.3 |
| 10 | Joc Pederson | 0.2981 | 0.2105 | 29.4 |
Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Davidson | 0.2098 | 0.3370 | 0.3725 | 68.3 | 12.6 | 55.7 |
| 2 | Alex Bregman | 0.2219 | 0.1499 | 0.1550 | 47.2 | 1.3 | 45.9 |
| 3 | Keon Broxton | 0.2853 | 0.3510 | 0.3780 | 39.0 | 9.2 | 29.8 |
| 4 | Eric Thames | 0.2115 | 0.2618 | 0.2958 | 41.8 | 14.8 | 27.0 |
| 5 | Ian Happ | 0.2115 | 0.2778 | 0.3123 | 38.1 | 11.3 | 26.8 |
| 6 | Hunter Renfroe | 0.1973 | 0.2537 | 0.2923 | 41.4 | 15.1 | 26.4 |
| 7 | Adam Frazier | 0.1895 | 0.1330 | 0.1256 | 32.9 | 6.6 | 26.3 |
| 8 | Adam Engel | 0.2115 | 0.2867 | 0.3482 | 43.1 | 18.3 | 24.8 |
| 9 | Paul DeJong | 0.2115 | 0.2687 | 0.2799 | 26.5 | 1.8 | 24.7 |
| 10 | Whit Merrifield | 0.2120 | 0.1785 | 0.1397 | 50.9 | 28.9 | 22.0 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber | 0.2348 | 0.2703 | 0.3086 | 30.6 | 15.2 | 15.5 |
| 2 | Tim Anderson | 0.2372 | 0.2577 | 0.2673 | 11.7 | 1.5 | 10.1 |
| 3 | Javier Báez | 0.2371 | 0.2590 | 0.2835 | 18.1 | 8.8 | 9.3 |
| 4 | Lane Adams | 0.2115 | 0.2900 | 0.3033 | 9.9 | 0.8 | 9.1 |
| 5 | Hunter Renfroe | 0.2310 | 0.2537 | 0.2923 | 24.2 | 15.1 | 9.1 |
| 6 | Eric Thames | 0.2416 | 0.2618 | 0.2958 | 23.9 | 14.8 | 9.1 |
| 7 | Matt Davidson | 0.3138 | 0.3370 | 0.3725 | 21.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 |
| 8 | Gary Sánchez | 0.1942 | 0.2143 | 0.2286 | 12.4 | 3.8 | 8.6 |
| 9 | Jorge Bonifacio | 0.2315 | 0.2554 | 0.2796 | 15.8 | 7.2 | 8.5 |
| 10 | Keon Broxton | 0.3289 | 0.3510 | 0.3780 | 17.7 | 9.2 | 8.5 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.2152 | 0.1772 | 0.1099 | 61.3 | 42.0 | 19.4 |
| 2 | Cody Bellinger | 0.3054 | 0.2707 | 0.2664 | 23.2 | 6.2 | 17.0 |
| 3 | Aaron Judge | 0.3429 | 0.3146 | 0.3068 | 26.8 | 10.1 | 16.7 |
| 4 | Domingo Santana | 0.3262 | 0.3071 | 0.2932 | 22.1 | 12.7 | 9.3 |
| 5 | Kris Bryant | 0.2708 | 0.2555 | 0.1925 | 54.4 | 46.7 | 7.7 |
| 6 | George Springer | 0.2746 | 0.2591 | 0.1765 | 63.8 | 56.4 | 7.4 |
| 7 | Joey Gallo | 0.3968 | 0.3793 | 0.3684 | 16.9 | 9.5 | 7.4 |
| 8 | Matt Chapman | 0.3304 | 0.3047 | 0.2822 | 16.8 | 9.6 | 7.2 |
| 9 | Tim Anderson | 0.2782 | 0.2577 | 0.2673 | 8.6 | 1.5 | 7.1 |
| 10 | Edwin Encarnación | 0.1753 | 0.1819 | 0.1988 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 6.9 |
Walk Rate
Everybody Missed for Walk Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Cozart | 0.1223 |
0.0623
(26.3)
|
0.0658
(25.6)
|
0.0636
(26.5)
|
0.0609
(26.3)
|
| Eric Sogard | 0.1505 |
0.0681
(22.2)
|
0.0753
(20.7)
|
0.0714
(21.7)
|
0.0648
(22.8)
|
| Logan Forsythe | 0.1572 |
0.0803
(30.2)
|
0.0829
(30.0)
|
0.0822
(30.1)
|
0.0785
(30.4)
|
| Matt Carpenter | 0.1752 |
0.1320
(21.9)
|
0.1248
(27.6)
|
0.1325
(22.5)
|
0.1314
(21.3)
|
| Steven Souza Jr. | 0.1361 |
0.0868
(25.5)
|
0.0835
(28.7)
|
0.0876
(25.9)
|
0.0860
(25.1)
|
| Yasmani Grandal | 0.0830 |
0.1395
(31.1)
|
0.1295
(25.3)
|
0.1386
(29.9)
|
0.1404
(32.3)
|
| Aaron Judge | 0.1873 |
0.0904
(60.3)
|
0.0830
(66.6)
|
0.0946
(58.5)
|
0.0862
(62.1)
|
| Brad Miller | 0.1548 |
0.0866
(24.5)
|
0.0830
(26.7)
|
0.0876
(24.7)
|
0.0855
(24.3)
|
| Logan Morrison | 0.1348 |
0.0917
(21.0)
|
0.0846
(26.5)
|
0.0936
(20.9)
|
0.0899
(21.3)
|
| José Bautista | 0.1224 |
0.1519
(25.7)
|
0.1523
(24.7)
|
0.1529
(25.3)
|
0.1510
(26.1)
|
| Eugenio Suárez | 0.1329 |
0.0764
(30.6)
|
0.0710
(35.3)
|
0.0788
(30.1)
|
0.0740
(31.2)
|
| Todd Frazier | 0.1441 |
0.0849
(29.5)
|
0.0804
(33.2)
|
0.0877
(28.7)
|
0.0820
(30.3)
|
| Martín Maldonado | 0.0318 |
0.1010
(36.3)
|
0.1029
(36.3)
|
0.1015
(35.9)
|
0.1005
(36.8)
|
Individual Misses for Walk Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.0722 | 0.0390 | 23.3 |
| 2 | Matt Davidson | 0.0840 | 0.0429 | 21.8 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | 0.1734 | 0.1382 | 21.3 |
| 4 | Marwin Gonzalez | 0.0461 | 0.0951 | 21.1 |
| 5 | Anthony Rendon | 0.0972 | 0.1388 | 20.3 |
| 6 | Carlos Santana | 0.1543 | 0.1319 | 20.3 |
| 7 | Eric Thames | 0.0914 | 0.1361 | 20.2 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eric Thames | 0.0870 | 0.1361 | 23.7 |
| 2 | Anthony Rendon | 0.0936 | 0.1388 | 23.7 |
| 3 | Jake Lamb | 0.0941 | 0.1370 | 23.4 |
| 4 | Edwin Encarnación | 0.1159 | 0.1555 | 22.4 |
| 5 | Mike Trout | 0.1371 | 0.1854 | 21.4 |
| 6 | Mookie Betts | 0.0728 | 0.1081 | 20.9 |
| 7 | Yonder Alonso | 0.0851 | 0.1305 | 20.5 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Davidson | 0.0875 | 0.0429 | 22.7 |
| 2 | Elvis Andrus | 0.0795 | 0.0552 | 21.2 |
| 3 | Marwin Gonzalez | 0.0485 | 0.0951 | 20.7 |
| 4 | Bryce Harper | 0.1735 | 0.1382 | 20.6 |
| 5 | Carlos Santana | 0.1557 | 0.1319 | 20.2 |
| 6 | Jake Lamb | 0.0996 | 0.1370 | 19.6 |
| 7 | Odúbel Herrera | 0.0831 | 0.0551 | 19.5 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.0819 | 0.0390 | 29.6 |
| 2 | Corey Seager | 0.0622 | 0.1093 | 23.0 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | 0.1733 | 0.1382 | 22.0 |
| 4 | Eric Thames | 0.0868 | 0.1361 | 21.9 |
| 5 | Anthony Rendon | 0.0937 | 0.1388 | 21.6 |
| 6 | Marwin Gonzalez | 0.0438 | 0.0951 | 21.6 |
| 7 | Matt Davidson | 0.0805 | 0.0429 | 20.9 |
Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul DeJong | 0.0870 | 0.0600 | 0.0474 | 20.2 | 9.1 | 11.1 |
| 2 | Mike Trout | 0.1371 | 0.1558 | 0.1854 | 21.4 | 11.0 | 10.5 |
| 3 | Joey Gallo | 0.0983 | 0.1157 | 0.1410 | 19.5 | 9.1 | 10.3 |
| 4 | Johan Camargo | 0.0870 | 0.0448 | 0.0469 | 11.8 | 1.5 | 10.3 |
| 5 | Joey Votto | 0.1653 | 0.1778 | 0.1895 | 12.9 | 2.6 | 10.3 |
| 6 | Hunter Renfroe | 0.0717 | 0.0480 | 0.0564 | 10.3 | 0.1 | 10.1 |
| 7 | Domingo Santana | 0.0978 | 0.1126 | 0.1203 | 9.9 | 0.2 | 9.7 |
| 8 | Manny Piña | 0.0917 | 0.0628 | 0.0557 | 15.1 | 5.4 | 9.6 |
| 9 | JT Riddle | 0.0870 | 0.0470 | 0.0486 | 11.0 | 1.6 | 9.4 |
| 10 | Anthony Rizzo | 0.1078 | 0.1181 | 0.1317 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 8.5 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Benintendi | 0.0729 | 0.0776 | 0.1064 | 17.7 | 13.7 | 4.1 |
| 2 | Dansby Swanson | 0.0789 | 0.0834 | 0.1071 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 3.3 |
| 3 | Evan Longoria | 0.0787 | 0.0735 | 0.0679 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 2.4 |
| 4 | Odúbel Herrera | 0.0831 | 0.0777 | 0.0551 | 19.5 | 17.3 | 2.2 |
| 5 | Victor Martinez | 0.0814 | 0.0752 | 0.0828 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 2.0 |
| 6 | Joey Votto | 0.1766 | 0.1778 | 0.1895 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| 7 | Kris Bryant | 0.1133 | 0.1147 | 0.1429 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 2.0 |
| 8 | Alex Avila | 0.1417 | 0.1451 | 0.1649 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 1.9 |
| 9 | Allen Córdoba | 0.0453 | 0.0518 | 0.0793 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 |
| 10 | Tim Anderson | 0.0364 | 0.0319 | 0.0215 | 13.0 | 11.2 | 1.8 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.0819 | 0.0722 | 0.0390 | 29.6 | 23.3 | 6.3 |
| 2 | Hanley Ramirez | 0.0994 | 0.0947 | 0.0922 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 3.4 |
| 3 | Austin Hays | 0.0870 | 0.0340 | 0.0317 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 3.4 |
| 4 | David Peralta | 0.0751 | 0.0711 | 0.0745 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 3.2 |
| 5 | Cory Spangenberg | 0.0763 | 0.0714 | 0.0700 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 3.1 |
| 6 | Mike Aviles | 0.0870 | 0.0510 | 0.0619 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 3.1 |
| 7 | Corey Seager | 0.0622 | 0.0685 | 0.1093 | 23.0 | 20.1 | 2.9 |
| 8 | Paul DeJong | 0.0647 | 0.0600 | 0.0474 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 2.7 |
| 9 | Eric Hosmer | 0.0802 | 0.0854 | 0.0984 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| 10 | Adalberto Mondesi | 0.0870 | 0.0487 | 0.0500 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 2.4 |
Hit By Pitch Rate
Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | 0.0310 |
0.0096
(6.6)
|
0.0118
(6.0)
|
0.0100
(6.5)
|
0.0093
(6.8)
|
| Carlos Gómez | 0.0446 |
0.0177
(11.1)
|
0.0170
(11.5)
|
0.0160
(11.8)
|
0.0193
(10.5)
|
| Yasiel Puig | 0.0035 |
0.0139
(6.4)
|
0.0143
(6.4)
|
0.0130
(5.9)
|
0.0148
(6.8)
|
| Justin Turner | 0.0350 |
0.0167
(9.5)
|
0.0182
(8.8)
|
0.0160
(9.9)
|
0.0174
(9.2)
|
| Jose Iglesias | 0.0020 |
0.0135
(6.0)
|
0.0138
(6.0)
|
0.0120
(5.3)
|
0.0150
(6.7)
|
| Dee Strange-Gordon | 0.0144 |
0.0042
(6.6)
|
0.0046
(6.5)
|
0.0050
(6.0)
|
0.0033
(7.2)
|
| Kurt Suzuki | 0.0421 |
0.0140
(8.4)
|
0.0140
(8.5)
|
0.0130
(8.7)
|
0.0149
(8.2)
|
| Eric Young Jr. | 0.0560 |
0.0091
(5.8)
|
0.0096
(5.7)
|
0.0100
(5.6)
|
0.0083
(5.9)
|
| Javier Báez | 0.0020 |
0.0157
(7.4)
|
0.0158
(7.3)
|
0.0140
(6.5)
|
0.0174
(8.2)
|
| Tyler Flowers | 0.0541 |
0.0197
(12.4)
|
0.0202
(12.3)
|
0.0170
(13.4)
|
0.0225
(11.4)
|
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.0110 |
0.0227
(7.9)
|
0.0220
(7.3)
|
0.0190
(5.6)
|
0.0264
(10.2)
|
| Jarrod Dyson | 0.0256 |
0.0099
(5.8)
|
0.0078
(6.8)
|
0.0100
(5.8)
|
0.0099
(5.9)
|
| Todd Frazier | 0.0243 |
0.0092
(8.2)
|
0.0084
(8.9)
|
0.0090
(8.3)
|
0.0095
(8.1)
|
| Josh Harrison | 0.0424 |
0.0108
(16.7)
|
0.0099
(17.3)
|
0.0100
(17.1)
|
0.0116
(16.3)
|
| Martín Maldonado | 0.0382 |
0.0151
(10.5)
|
0.0143
(11.0)
|
0.0120
(12.0)
|
0.0183
(9.1)
|
Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tommy Pham | 0.0064 | 0.0189 | 6.2 |
| 2 | David Freese | 0.0176 | 0.0298 | 5.8 |
| 3 | Brandon Moss | 0.0135 | 0.0000 | 5.7 |
| 4 | Leury García | 0.0068 | 0.0245 | 5.5 |
| 5 | Anthony Rizzo | 0.0260 | 0.0347 | 5.5 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James McCann | 0.0069 | 0.0230 | 6.1 |
| 2 | Jonathan Lucroy | 0.0039 | 0.0166 | 5.9 |
| 3 | Guillermo Heredia | 0.0116 | 0.0258 | 5.8 |
| 4 | Mitch Haniger | 0.0075 | 0.0220 | 5.7 |
| 5 | Joey Gallo | 0.0043 | 0.0150 | 5.4 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Freese | 0.0160 | 0.0298 | 6.5 |
| 2 | Anthony Rizzo | 0.0250 | 0.0347 | 6.2 |
| 3 | Tommy Pham | 0.0070 | 0.0189 | 5.9 |
| 4 | Jonathan Lucroy | 0.0050 | 0.0166 | 5.2 |
| 5 | Brandon Crawford | 0.0100 | 0.0018 | 5.2 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derek Dietrich | 0.0528 | 0.0388 | 6.8 |
| 2 | Tommy Pham | 0.0058 | 0.0189 | 6.6 |
| 3 | Brandon Moss | 0.0150 | 0.0000 | 6.3 |
| 4 | Leury García | 0.0057 | 0.0245 | 5.9 |
| 5 | Jonathan Lucroy | 0.0039 | 0.0166 | 5.8 |
Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Heredia | 0.0116 | 0.0195 | 0.0258 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 3.4 |
| 2 | Alex Bregman | 0.0031 | 0.0076 | 0.0112 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| 3 | Cody Bellinger | 0.0097 | 0.0049 | 0.0018 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| 4 | Mitch Haniger | 0.0075 | 0.0128 | 0.0220 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 |
| 5 | Ben Gamel | 0.0085 | 0.0042 | 0.0018 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| 6 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.0075 | 0.0112 | 0.0124 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| 7 | Scott Schebler | 0.0172 | 0.0205 | 0.0264 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| 8 | Whit Merrifield | 0.0027 | 0.0051 | 0.0095 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| 9 | Manuel Margot | 0.0088 | 0.0056 | 0.0038 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 10 | José A. Martínez | 0.0096 | 0.0041 | 0.0000 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Heredia | 0.0160 | 0.0195 | 0.0258 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 2 | Martín Maldonado | 0.0120 | 0.0151 | 0.0382 | 12.0 | 10.5 | 1.5 |
| 3 | Scott Schebler | 0.0180 | 0.0205 | 0.0264 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 4 | Kris Bryant | 0.0170 | 0.0189 | 0.0226 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 5 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.0090 | 0.0112 | 0.0124 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 1.2 |
| 6 | Jon Jay | 0.0230 | 0.0257 | 0.0277 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| 7 | Tyler Flowers | 0.0170 | 0.0197 | 0.0541 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 1.0 |
| 8 | Mark Trumbo | 0.0050 | 0.0034 | 0.0017 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 9 | Justin Smoak | 0.0080 | 0.0066 | 0.0031 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 10 | Josh Reddick | 0.0030 | 0.0015 | 0.0000 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derek Dietrich | 0.0528 | 0.0449 | 0.0388 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| 2 | Shin-Soo Choo | 0.0264 | 0.0227 | 0.0110 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 2.3 |
| 3 | Brandon Guyer | 0.0620 | 0.0525 | 0.0417 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 4 | Mike Zunino | 0.0255 | 0.0223 | 0.0184 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 5 | Starling Marte | 0.0310 | 0.0275 | 0.0236 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 6 | Rajai Davis | 0.0150 | 0.0120 | 0.0027 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 |
| 7 | Trey Mancini | 0.0049 | 0.0065 | 0.0102 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 8 | Danny Espinosa | 0.0274 | 0.0242 | 0.0169 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 9 | Corey Dickerson | 0.0022 | 0.0036 | 0.0048 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| 10 | Jett Bandy | 0.0297 | 0.0248 | 0.0213 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
Home Run Rate
Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scooter Gennett | 0.0774 |
0.0298
(19.2)
|
0.0311
(19.0)
|
0.0277
(20.0)
|
0.0319
(18.6)
|
| Joey Gallo | 0.1621 |
0.1082
(23.9)
|
0.0584
(50.9)
|
0.0997
(28.1)
|
0.1172
(19.6)
|
| Aaron Judge | 0.1538 |
0.0869
(39.3)
|
0.0497
(65.2)
|
0.0727
(48.5)
|
0.1024
(29.4)
|
| Matt Olson | 0.1860 |
0.0484
(27.8)
|
0.0323
(31.5)
|
0.0424
(29.0)
|
0.0546
(26.6)
|
| Carlos González | 0.0392 |
0.0715
(22.0)
|
0.0640
(17.6)
|
0.0683
(20.6)
|
0.0747
(23.3)
|
| Jake Marisnick | 0.1119 |
0.0341
(17.9)
|
0.0296
(19.2)
|
0.0330
(18.0)
|
0.0351
(17.8)
|
| Logan Morrison | 0.1038 |
0.0469
(28.9)
|
0.0436
(31.3)
|
0.0523
(25.3)
|
0.0417
(32.5)
|
| Yonder Alonso | 0.0841 |
0.0225
(27.4)
|
0.0233
(27.5)
|
0.0245
(26.1)
|
0.0206
(28.9)
|
| José Bautista | 0.0542 |
0.0792
(23.2)
|
0.0733
(18.6)
|
0.0773
(22.3)
|
0.0811
(24.0)
|
| Ian Happ | 0.0996 |
0.0398
(21.0)
|
0.0505
(16.9)
|
0.0331
(23.5)
|
0.0470
(18.4)
|
| J.D. Martinez | 0.1461 |
0.0725
(31.6)
|
0.0698
(33.4)
|
0.0675
(33.8)
|
0.0775
(29.6)
|
Individual Misses for Home Run Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Trumbo | 0.0846 | 0.0560 | 22.6 |
| 2 | Evan Longoria | 0.0611 | 0.0388 | 21.1 |
| 3 | Cody Bellinger | 0.0695 | 0.1157 | 20.5 |
| 4 | Chris Taylor | 0.0136 | 0.0563 | 19.2 |
| 5 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.0494 | 0.0893 | 17.9 |
| 6 | Khris Davis | 0.0782 | 0.1138 | 17.4 |
| 7 | Miguel Cabrera | 0.0671 | 0.0442 | 16.8 |
| 8 | José Ramírez | 0.0210 | 0.0557 | 16.6 |
| 9 | Paul DeJong | 0.0389 | 0.0850 | 16.5 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Bellinger | 0.0505 | 0.1157 | 31.3 |
| 2 | Eric Thames | 0.0505 | 0.1013 | 23.5 |
| 3 | Matt Davidson | 0.0417 | 0.1024 | 23.3 |
| 4 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.0944 | 0.1350 | 22.5 |
| 5 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.0450 | 0.0893 | 20.9 |
| 6 | Michael Conforto | 0.0517 | 0.1031 | 19.1 |
| 7 | Rhys Hoskins | 0.0505 | 0.1429 | 17.9 |
| 8 | Kyle Schwarber | 0.0662 | 0.1103 | 17.5 |
| 9 | Marcell Ozuna | 0.0453 | 0.0786 | 17.1 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Bellinger | 0.0563 | 0.1157 | 27.3 |
| 2 | Mark Trumbo | 0.0837 | 0.0560 | 22.5 |
| 3 | Evan Longoria | 0.0578 | 0.0388 | 19.4 |
| 4 | Chris Taylor | 0.0129 | 0.0563 | 19.2 |
| 5 | Miguel Cabrera | 0.0688 | 0.0442 | 18.0 |
| 6 | Paul DeJong | 0.0356 | 0.0850 | 17.7 |
| 7 | Michael Conforto | 0.0543 | 0.1031 | 17.2 |
| 8 | Matt Davidson | 0.0559 | 0.1024 | 16.4 |
| 9 | Khris Davis | 0.0793 | 0.1138 | 16.3 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Evan Longoria | 0.0644 | 0.0388 | 22.8 |
| 2 | Mark Trumbo | 0.0856 | 0.0560 | 22.7 |
| 3 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.0447 | 0.0893 | 21.0 |
| 4 | Chris Taylor | 0.0143 | 0.0563 | 19.2 |
| 5 | Khris Davis | 0.0771 | 0.1138 | 18.6 |
| 6 | José Ramírez | 0.0198 | 0.0557 | 17.9 |
| 7 | Mike Moustakas | 0.0441 | 0.0814 | 17.5 |
| 8 | Kurt Suzuki | 0.0154 | 0.0792 | 17.2 |
| 9 | Chris Davis | 0.1223 | 0.0981 | 16.9 |
Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joey Gallo | 0.0584 | 0.1082 | 0.1621 | 50.9 | 23.9 | 26.9 |
| 2 | Aaron Judge | 0.0497 | 0.0869 | 0.1538 | 65.2 | 39.3 | 25.8 |
| 3 | Eric Thames | 0.0505 | 0.0826 | 0.1013 | 23.5 | 5.4 | 18.2 |
| 4 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.0944 | 0.1126 | 0.1350 | 22.5 | 9.4 | 13.1 |
| 5 | Kyle Schwarber | 0.0662 | 0.0911 | 0.1103 | 17.5 | 5.0 | 12.5 |
| 6 | Cody Bellinger | 0.0505 | 0.0695 | 0.1157 | 31.3 | 20.5 | 10.8 |
| 7 | Mark Reynolds | 0.0550 | 0.0710 | 0.0862 | 13.7 | 3.8 | 10.0 |
| 8 | Johan Camargo | 0.0505 | 0.0117 | 0.0207 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 9.7 |
| 9 | JT Riddle | 0.0505 | 0.0129 | 0.0162 | 10.5 | 1.4 | 9.1 |
| 10 | Adam Frazier | 0.0290 | 0.0070 | 0.0170 | 9.1 | 0.5 | 8.6 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Judge | 0.0727 | 0.0869 | 0.1538 | 48.5 | 39.3 | 9.2 |
| 2 | Cody Bellinger | 0.0563 | 0.0695 | 0.1157 | 27.3 | 20.5 | 6.9 |
| 3 | Kyle Schwarber | 0.0771 | 0.0911 | 0.1103 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 6.5 |
| 4 | Joey Gallo | 0.0997 | 0.1082 | 0.1621 | 28.1 | 23.9 | 4.2 |
| 5 | Mark Reynolds | 0.0639 | 0.0710 | 0.0862 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| 6 | Charlie Blackmon | 0.0408 | 0.0462 | 0.0718 | 15.6 | 12.2 | 3.4 |
| 7 | Keon Broxton | 0.0503 | 0.0575 | 0.0830 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.0 |
| 8 | Eric Hosmer | 0.0476 | 0.0437 | 0.0499 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 3.0 |
| 9 | Lucas Duda | 0.0725 | 0.0787 | 0.1034 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 2.8 |
| 10 | Melky Cabrera | 0.0285 | 0.0253 | 0.0307 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.0580 | 0.0458 | 0.0381 | 15.8 | 9.4 | 6.4 |
| 2 | Trevor Story | 0.0818 | 0.0741 | 0.0767 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| 3 | Chris Davis | 0.1223 | 0.1144 | 0.0981 | 16.9 | 13.2 | 3.7 |
| 4 | Logan Morrison | 0.0417 | 0.0469 | 0.1038 | 32.5 | 28.9 | 3.6 |
| 5 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.0447 | 0.0494 | 0.0893 | 21.0 | 17.9 | 3.2 |
| 6 | Mike Moustakas | 0.0441 | 0.0484 | 0.0814 | 17.5 | 14.4 | 3.0 |
| 7 | Tzu-Wei Lin | 0.0505 | 0.0064 | 0.0000 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 2.9 |
| 8 | Nelson Cruz | 0.0940 | 0.0889 | 0.0922 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| 9 | Brian Dozier | 0.0677 | 0.0631 | 0.0711 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 2.7 |
| 10 | Mike Aviles | 0.0505 | 0.0226 | 0.0135 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 2.6 |
BABIP
Everybody Missed for BABIP
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Zunino | 0.3547 |
0.2682
(37.3)
|
0.2577
(43.1)
|
0.2670
(37.9)
|
0.2695
(36.7)
|
| Mookie Betts | 0.2679 |
0.3180
(36.2)
|
0.3149
(31.9)
|
0.3156
(34.3)
|
0.3204
(38.0)
|
| Rougned Odor | 0.2243 |
0.2941
(45.9)
|
0.2923
(42.8)
|
0.2952
(46.5)
|
0.2931
(45.3)
|
| Aaron Judge | 0.3566 |
0.3007
(37.5)
|
0.2941
(43.8)
|
0.3077
(32.8)
|
0.2928
(42.8)
|
| Maikel Franco | 0.2343 |
0.2876
(33.7)
|
0.2818
(28.3)
|
0.2843
(31.5)
|
0.2909
(35.8)
|
| Avisaíl García | 0.3923 |
0.3205
(39.9)
|
0.3077
(48.7)
|
0.3195
(40.5)
|
0.3214
(39.3)
|
| Tim Beckham | 0.3642 |
0.3121
(29.5)
|
0.3092
(32.8)
|
0.3093
(31.2)
|
0.3148
(27.9)
|
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.3548 |
0.3130
(27.9)
|
0.3087
(32.8)
|
0.3132
(27.9)
|
0.3128
(28.0)
|
| Mike Napoli | 0.2236 |
0.2891
(32.1)
|
0.2949
(33.5)
|
0.2904
(32.6)
|
0.2879
(31.6)
|
| Charlie Blackmon | 0.3682 |
0.3184
(35.5)
|
0.3238
(33.7)
|
0.3180
(36.0)
|
0.3189
(35.2)
|
| Francisco Lindor | 0.2720 |
0.3158
(32.2)
|
0.3199
(33.1)
|
0.3164
(32.5)
|
0.3153
(31.8)
|
| Ian Kinsler | 0.2438 |
0.2938
(31.1)
|
0.3067
(37.2)
|
0.2915
(29.6)
|
0.2961
(32.5)
|
Individual Misses for BABIP
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manny Machado | 0.3052 | 0.2648 | 28.4 |
| 2 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.2856 | 0.3351 | 28.1 |
| 3 | Yasiel Puig | 0.3215 | 0.2739 | 27.5 |
| 4 | Jose Altuve | 0.3274 | 0.3696 | 27.5 |
| 5 | Josh Reddick | 0.2814 | 0.3325 | 27.2 |
| 6 | Miguel Sanó | 0.3182 | 0.3750 | 27.1 |
| 7 | Kyle Schwarber | 0.2985 | 0.2438 | 26.9 |
| 8 | Scott Schebler | 0.2976 | 0.2477 | 26.9 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.2704 | 0.3351 | 38.5 |
| 2 | Chris Taylor | 0.3049 | 0.3608 | 33.0 |
| 3 | Trey Mancini | 0.3000 | 0.3516 | 31.5 |
| 4 | Ben Gamel | 0.2857 | 0.3395 | 30.7 |
| 5 | Scott Schebler | 0.3060 | 0.2477 | 29.8 |
| 6 | Alex Avila | 0.3081 | 0.3799 | 27.8 |
| 7 | Tommy Pham | 0.3167 | 0.3657 | 27.1 |
| 8 | Eric Hosmer | 0.3128 | 0.3508 | 27.0 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Sanó | 0.3118 | 0.3750 | 30.3 |
| 2 | Jose Altuve | 0.3244 | 0.3696 | 29.6 |
| 3 | Josh Reddick | 0.2775 | 0.3325 | 29.4 |
| 4 | Alex Gordon | 0.3120 | 0.2594 | 28.8 |
| 5 | Kyle Schwarber | 0.3016 | 0.2438 | 28.4 |
| 6 | Matt Carpenter | 0.3168 | 0.2725 | 27.9 |
| 7 | Alex Avila | 0.3062 | 0.3799 | 27.5 |
| 8 | Yasiel Puig | 0.3208 | 0.2739 | 27.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.2734 | 0.3351 | 35.1 |
| 2 | Scott Schebler | 0.3048 | 0.2477 | 30.8 |
| 3 | Manny Machado | 0.3072 | 0.2648 | 29.8 |
| 4 | Yasiel Puig | 0.3221 | 0.2739 | 27.9 |
| 5 | Tommy Pham | 0.3140 | 0.3657 | 27.0 |
| 6 | Mark Reynolds | 0.2966 | 0.3428 | 26.9 |
| 7 | Corey Seager | 0.3083 | 0.3522 | 26.4 |
| 8 | Joey Gallo | 0.2986 | 0.2500 | 26.3 |
Most Unique Misses for BABIP
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Mancini | 0.3000 | 0.3241 | 0.3516 | 31.5 | 15.6 | 15.8 |
| 2 | Ben Gamel | 0.2857 | 0.3108 | 0.3395 | 30.7 | 15.4 | 15.4 |
| 3 | Whit Merrifield | 0.3320 | 0.3059 | 0.3074 | 14.2 | 0.4 | 13.8 |
| 4 | Byron Buxton | 0.3064 | 0.3297 | 0.3333 | 14.9 | 1.5 | 13.4 |
| 5 | Leury García | 0.2810 | 0.3116 | 0.3172 | 12.5 | 1.6 | 10.9 |
| 6 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.2704 | 0.2856 | 0.3351 | 38.5 | 28.1 | 10.4 |
| 7 | Dansby Swanson | 0.3280 | 0.3066 | 0.2923 | 18.5 | 8.3 | 10.2 |
| 8 | Chris Taylor | 0.3049 | 0.3192 | 0.3608 | 33.0 | 23.2 | 9.8 |
| 9 | Bradley Zimmer | 0.3002 | 0.3261 | 0.3282 | 10.0 | 0.4 | 9.6 |
| 10 | José Peraza | 0.3268 | 0.3068 | 0.2909 | 17.5 | 8.6 | 8.9 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kris Bryant | 0.3220 | 0.3319 | 0.3342 | 7.7 | 1.0 | 6.7 |
| 2 | Matt Holliday | 0.2986 | 0.2832 | 0.2735 | 11.0 | 4.5 | 6.5 |
| 3 | Byron Buxton | 0.3177 | 0.3297 | 0.3333 | 7.7 | 1.5 | 6.2 |
| 4 | Jay Bruce | 0.2629 | 0.2727 | 0.2742 | 6.6 | 0.5 | 6.1 |
| 5 | Odúbel Herrera | 0.3297 | 0.3400 | 0.3454 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 5.9 |
| 6 | Paul DeJong | 0.2933 | 0.3044 | 0.3494 | 24.6 | 19.6 | 5.0 |
| 7 | Bradley Zimmer | 0.3114 | 0.3261 | 0.3282 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 5.0 |
| 8 | Jayson Werth | 0.3108 | 0.2945 | 0.2701 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 4.6 |
| 9 | Javier Báez | 0.3039 | 0.3125 | 0.3387 | 17.4 | 12.9 | 4.5 |
| 10 | Victor Martinez | 0.2967 | 0.2864 | 0.2804 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 4.4 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.2734 | 0.2856 | 0.3351 | 35.1 | 28.1 | 7.0 |
| 2 | Steven Souza Jr. | 0.3292 | 0.3199 | 0.2997 | 18.7 | 12.9 | 5.7 |
| 3 | Rajai Davis | 0.2642 | 0.2799 | 0.2960 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 5.7 |
| 4 | Aaron Judge | 0.2928 | 0.3007 | 0.3566 | 42.8 | 37.5 | 5.3 |
| 5 | Mark Reynolds | 0.2966 | 0.3055 | 0.3428 | 26.9 | 21.6 | 5.3 |
| 6 | Ben Gamel | 0.3013 | 0.3108 | 0.3395 | 20.6 | 15.4 | 5.2 |
| 7 | Jay Bruce | 0.2823 | 0.2727 | 0.2742 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 5.1 |
| 8 | Kris Bryant | 0.3425 | 0.3319 | 0.3342 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 5.0 |
| 9 | Martín Maldonado | 0.2519 | 0.2626 | 0.2656 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 5.0 |
| 10 | Bradley Zimmer | 0.3421 | 0.3261 | 0.3282 | 4.9 | 0.4 | 4.4 |
Single Rate
Everybody Missed for Single Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts | 0.1774 |
0.2303
(36.3)
|
0.2290
(34.3)
|
0.2305
(35.5)
|
0.2302
(37.1)
|
| Lucas Duda | 0.1308 |
0.2005
(33.2)
|
0.2010
(32.8)
|
0.2054
(35.1)
|
0.1953
(31.3)
|
| Joey Gallo | 0.1509 |
0.2089
(29.7)
|
0.2326
(41.6)
|
0.2136
(31.6)
|
0.2038
(27.7)
|
| Francisco Lindor | 0.1820 |
0.2453
(44.3)
|
0.2506
(47.1)
|
0.2469
(44.6)
|
0.2437
(44.1)
|
| Scott Schebler | 0.1641 |
0.2192
(28.2)
|
0.2371
(36.9)
|
0.2191
(27.5)
|
0.2194
(28.9)
|
| Avisaíl García | 0.3103 |
0.2583
(30.3)
|
0.2462
(37.9)
|
0.2569
(31.8)
|
0.2597
(28.8)
|
| Miguel Sanó | 0.2991 |
0.2219
(38.3)
|
0.2402
(30.1)
|
0.2216
(39.0)
|
0.2222
(37.5)
|
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.2811 |
0.2333
(33.8)
|
0.2322
(35.6)
|
0.2326
(35.1)
|
0.2340
(32.5)
|
| Tim Beckham | 0.2977 |
0.2266
(42.0)
|
0.2126
(50.9)
|
0.2309
(40.3)
|
0.2222
(43.8)
|
| Orlando Arcia | 0.2677 |
0.2116
(31.9)
|
0.2055
(36.0)
|
0.2105
(33.2)
|
0.2127
(30.5)
|
| Curtis Granderson | 0.1386 |
0.1957
(29.0)
|
0.2000
(30.5)
|
0.1963
(28.7)
|
0.1952
(29.4)
|
| Eric Hosmer | 0.2836 |
0.2406
(30.2)
|
0.2417
(30.4)
|
0.2383
(32.6)
|
0.2429
(27.8)
|
| Enrique Hernández | 0.1286 |
0.2095
(27.0)
|
0.2165
(28.9)
|
0.2098
(26.7)
|
0.2093
(27.3)
|
Individual Misses for Single Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corey Dickerson | 0.2036 | 0.2476 | 28.9 |
| 2 | Corey Seager | 0.2226 | 0.2674 | 28.7 |
| 3 | Rougned Odor | 0.2119 | 0.1671 | 27.9 |
| 4 | Starlin Castro | 0.2355 | 0.2908 | 27.1 |
| 5 | Aaron Judge | 0.2245 | 0.2622 | 27.0 |
| 6 | Maikel Franco | 0.2138 | 0.1692 | 26.5 |
| 7 | Mark Reynolds | 0.2285 | 0.2704 | 26.1 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Byron Buxton | 0.2000 | 0.2673 | 36.2 |
| 2 | Tommy Pham | 0.2278 | 0.2880 | 33.8 |
| 3 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.1918 | 0.2452 | 32.8 |
| 4 | Trey Mancini | 0.2214 | 0.2734 | 32.5 |
| 5 | Ian Kinsler | 0.2333 | 0.1806 | 30.2 |
| 6 | Aaron Judge | 0.2222 | 0.2622 | 29.5 |
| 7 | AJ Pollock | 0.2406 | 0.1765 | 28.3 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Starlin Castro | 0.2312 | 0.2908 | 29.7 |
| 2 | Dee Strange-Gordon | 0.2620 | 0.3009 | 29.3 |
| 3 | Ender Inciarte | 0.2429 | 0.2801 | 29.1 |
| 4 | Rougned Odor | 0.2147 | 0.1671 | 28.9 |
| 5 | Alex Avila | 0.2325 | 0.3017 | 27.2 |
| 6 | Corey Dickerson | 0.2077 | 0.2476 | 27.1 |
| 7 | Jason Kipnis | 0.2298 | 0.1577 | 25.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Judge | 0.2091 | 0.2622 | 36.5 |
| 2 | Corey Seager | 0.2150 | 0.2674 | 32.6 |
| 3 | Corey Dickerson | 0.1993 | 0.2476 | 30.8 |
| 4 | Mark Reynolds | 0.2203 | 0.2704 | 30.2 |
| 5 | Tommy Pham | 0.2319 | 0.2880 | 30.2 |
| 6 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.1978 | 0.2452 | 27.7 |
| 7 | Maikel Franco | 0.2139 | 0.1692 | 27.4 |
Most Unique Misses for Single Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Byron Buxton | 0.2000 | 0.2346 | 0.2673 | 36.2 | 17.8 | 18.4 |
| 2 | Trey Mancini | 0.2214 | 0.2478 | 0.2734 | 32.5 | 16.2 | 16.3 |
| 3 | Ben Gamel | 0.2143 | 0.2347 | 0.2553 | 24.4 | 12.4 | 12.0 |
| 4 | Joey Gallo | 0.2326 | 0.2089 | 0.1509 | 41.6 | 29.7 | 11.8 |
| 5 | Yolmer Sánchez | 0.2009 | 0.2214 | 0.2419 | 23.8 | 12.0 | 11.8 |
| 6 | Gorkys Hernández | 0.2102 | 0.2420 | 0.2407 | 11.8 | 0.2 | 11.6 |
| 7 | Matt Chapman | 0.2228 | 0.1867 | 0.1559 | 20.7 | 9.4 | 11.3 |
| 8 | Dansby Swanson | 0.2487 | 0.2250 | 0.2240 | 11.7 | 0.6 | 11.1 |
| 9 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.1918 | 0.2087 | 0.2452 | 32.8 | 22.2 | 10.5 |
| 10 | Tim Beckham | 0.2126 | 0.2266 | 0.2977 | 50.9 | 42.0 | 8.9 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eric Thames | 0.2310 | 0.2139 | 0.2000 | 15.3 | 6.5 | 8.7 |
| 2 | Matt Holliday | 0.2264 | 0.2096 | 0.2000 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 6.6 |
| 3 | Jay Bruce | 0.1808 | 0.1894 | 0.1932 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 6.1 |
| 4 | Dee Strange-Gordon | 0.2620 | 0.2680 | 0.3009 | 29.3 | 24.3 | 5.0 |
| 5 | Josh Bell | 0.2391 | 0.2298 | 0.2000 | 22.2 | 17.2 | 5.0 |
| 6 | César Hernández | 0.2615 | 0.2683 | 0.2732 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 4.6 |
| 7 | Max Kepler | 0.2137 | 0.2046 | 0.1859 | 14.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 |
| 8 | Ender Inciarte | 0.2429 | 0.2475 | 0.2801 | 29.1 | 24.9 | 4.2 |
| 9 | Javier Báez | 0.2319 | 0.2387 | 0.2548 | 13.3 | 9.2 | 4.1 |
| 10 | Jayson Werth | 0.2356 | 0.2208 | 0.2069 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 3.9 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Judge | 0.2091 | 0.2245 | 0.2622 | 36.5 | 27.0 | 9.6 |
| 2 | Rajai Davis | 0.1813 | 0.2024 | 0.2120 | 11.5 | 4.3 | 7.2 |
| 3 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.1935 | 0.2072 | 0.2110 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 7.0 |
| 4 | Ben Gamel | 0.2228 | 0.2347 | 0.2553 | 18.3 | 12.4 | 5.9 |
| 5 | Kris Bryant | 0.2493 | 0.2418 | 0.2286 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 5.8 |
| 6 | Steven Souza Jr. | 0.2542 | 0.2462 | 0.2271 | 16.2 | 10.5 | 5.7 |
| 7 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.1978 | 0.2087 | 0.2452 | 27.7 | 22.2 | 5.5 |
| 8 | Daniel Murphy | 0.2255 | 0.2342 | 0.2357 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 4.4 |
| 9 | Odúbel Herrera | 0.2725 | 0.2664 | 0.2294 | 23.8 | 19.7 | 4.1 |
| 10 | Bradley Zimmer | 0.2556 | 0.2445 | 0.2410 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 4.1 |
Double Rate
Everybody Missed for Double Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Zunino | 0.1232 |
0.0661
(23.1)
|
0.0670
(23.4)
|
0.0659
(23.2)
|
0.0664
(23.1)
|
| Hunter Pence | 0.0340 |
0.0686
(20.7)
|
0.0707
(21.0)
|
0.0696
(21.3)
|
0.0675
(20.0)
|
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.0468 |
0.0746
(15.8)
|
0.0801
(17.8)
|
0.0743
(15.7)
|
0.0749
(15.8)
|
| Andrew Benintendi | 0.0578 |
0.0792
(16.6)
|
0.0879
(21.4)
|
0.0805
(17.6)
|
0.0779
(15.6)
|
| José Ramírez | 0.1138 |
0.0734
(23.6)
|
0.0737
(24.3)
|
0.0720
(24.5)
|
0.0749
(22.8)
|
| Odúbel Herrera | 0.1082 |
0.0625
(23.6)
|
0.0627
(24.3)
|
0.0593
(25.4)
|
0.0657
(22.0)
|
| Kolten Wong | 0.0918 |
0.0480
(16.5)
|
0.0491
(16.6)
|
0.0488
(16.1)
|
0.0471
(16.9)
|
| Jed Lowrie | 0.1075 |
0.0634
(26.0)
|
0.0614
(28.2)
|
0.0664
(23.9)
|
0.0604
(28.1)
|
| Justin Upton | 0.1283 |
0.0766
(30.4)
|
0.0760
(31.7)
|
0.0774
(29.8)
|
0.0758
(31.0)
|
| Enrique Hernández | 0.1143 |
0.0610
(16.9)
|
0.0649
(16.1)
|
0.0639
(15.9)
|
0.0581
(18.0)
|
| Starling Marte | 0.0290 |
0.0792
(18.3)
|
0.0767
(17.0)
|
0.0802
(18.7)
|
0.0783
(17.9)
|
Individual Misses for Double Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.0844 | 0.0554 | 17.7 |
| 2 | José Pirela | 0.0563 | 0.1068 | 16.1 |
| 3 | Matt Chapman | 0.0713 | 0.1237 | 15.8 |
| 4 | Matt Olson | 0.0874 | 0.0190 | 15.6 |
| 5 | Shin-Soo Choo | 0.0712 | 0.0505 | 15.6 |
| 6 | Byron Buxton | 0.0724 | 0.0462 | 15.3 |
| 7 | Nomar Mazara | 0.0449 | 0.0732 | 15.1 |
| 8 | José Peraza | 0.0468 | 0.0216 | 15.0 |
| 9 | Rougned Odor | 0.0692 | 0.0501 | 14.9 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Byron Buxton | 0.0851 | 0.0462 | 21.1 |
| 2 | Chris Taylor | 0.0610 | 0.0966 | 18.9 |
| 3 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.0612 | 0.0945 | 17.4 |
| 4 | Mitch Haniger | 0.0511 | 0.0958 | 17.3 |
| 5 | Edwin Encarnación | 0.0749 | 0.0514 | 17.3 |
| 6 | Nomar Mazara | 0.0435 | 0.0732 | 16.8 |
| 7 | Matt Chapman | 0.0707 | 0.1237 | 16.5 |
| 8 | José Peraza | 0.0506 | 0.0216 | 16.2 |
| 9 | Manuel Margot | 0.0759 | 0.0483 | 15.9 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Chapman | 0.0652 | 0.1237 | 17.8 |
| 2 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.0831 | 0.0554 | 17.1 |
| 3 | José Peraza | 0.0500 | 0.0216 | 16.7 |
| 4 | Shin-Soo Choo | 0.0727 | 0.0505 | 16.6 |
| 5 | José Pirela | 0.0564 | 0.1068 | 16.0 |
| 6 | Lucas Duda | 0.0714 | 0.1077 | 15.9 |
| 7 | Albert Pujols | 0.0562 | 0.0353 | 15.7 |
| 8 | Jason Heyward | 0.0693 | 0.0418 | 15.1 |
| 9 | Rougned Odor | 0.0694 | 0.0501 | 15.1 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nomar Mazara | 0.0363 | 0.0732 | 20.5 |
| 2 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.0857 | 0.0554 | 18.3 |
| 3 | Matt Olson | 0.1003 | 0.0190 | 18.3 |
| 4 | Byron Buxton | 0.0745 | 0.0462 | 16.3 |
| 5 | José Pirela | 0.0561 | 0.1068 | 16.2 |
| 6 | Edwin Encarnación | 0.0707 | 0.0514 | 15.3 |
| 7 | Brian Goodwin | 0.0641 | 0.1221 | 15.1 |
| 8 | Miguel Sanó | 0.0947 | 0.0670 | 15.1 |
| 9 | Ryan Schimpf | 0.0949 | 0.0241 | 14.6 |
Most Unique Misses for Double Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.0612 | 0.0827 | 0.0945 | 17.4 | 4.5 | 12.9 |
| 2 | Manuel Margot | 0.0759 | 0.0533 | 0.0483 | 15.9 | 4.7 | 11.2 |
| 3 | Mitch Moreland | 0.0703 | 0.0826 | 0.0916 | 10.9 | 3.0 | 7.9 |
| 4 | Joey Gallo | 0.0620 | 0.0748 | 0.0849 | 10.9 | 3.4 | 7.5 |
| 5 | Tim Anderson | 0.0724 | 0.0594 | 0.0633 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 6.9 |
| 6 | Eric Thames | 0.0707 | 0.0805 | 0.0945 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 6.2 |
| 7 | Chris Taylor | 0.0610 | 0.0703 | 0.0966 | 18.9 | 12.8 | 6.1 |
| 8 | Austin Hedges | 0.0500 | 0.0627 | 0.0677 | 6.4 | 0.5 | 5.9 |
| 9 | Mitch Haniger | 0.0511 | 0.0638 | 0.0958 | 17.3 | 11.5 | 5.8 |
| 10 | Byron Buxton | 0.0851 | 0.0724 | 0.0462 | 21.1 | 15.3 | 5.8 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.0732 | 0.0827 | 0.0945 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| 2 | Adam Duvall | 0.0661 | 0.0730 | 0.0932 | 15.0 | 10.6 | 4.4 |
| 3 | Albert Pujols | 0.0562 | 0.0496 | 0.0353 | 15.7 | 11.5 | 4.3 |
| 4 | Eric Thames | 0.0739 | 0.0805 | 0.0945 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 3.5 |
| 5 | Aaron Judge | 0.0651 | 0.0703 | 0.0839 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 3.4 |
| 6 | Trevor Story | 0.0835 | 0.0895 | 0.1107 | 12.9 | 9.6 | 3.3 |
| 7 | Guillermo Heredia | 0.0542 | 0.0453 | 0.0503 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 2.8 |
| 8 | Joey Gallo | 0.0694 | 0.0748 | 0.0849 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 2.8 |
| 9 | Brett Gardner | 0.0631 | 0.0592 | 0.0566 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.8 |
| 10 | Rajai Davis | 0.0630 | 0.0705 | 0.0760 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 2.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nomar Mazara | 0.0363 | 0.0449 | 0.0732 | 20.5 | 15.1 | 5.4 |
| 2 | Guillermo Heredia | 0.0365 | 0.0453 | 0.0503 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 3.9 |
| 3 | Ryon Healy | 0.0837 | 0.0780 | 0.0706 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.3 |
| 4 | Corey Dickerson | 0.0928 | 0.0874 | 0.0801 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 3.2 |
| 5 | Denard Span | 0.0515 | 0.0572 | 0.0742 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 3.2 |
| 6 | Evan Longoria | 0.0826 | 0.0776 | 0.0726 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 3.2 |
| 7 | Matt Olson | 0.1003 | 0.0874 | 0.0190 | 18.3 | 15.6 | 2.7 |
| 8 | Martín Maldonado | 0.0458 | 0.0513 | 0.0623 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 |
| 9 | César Hernández | 0.0397 | 0.0441 | 0.0652 | 12.6 | 10.0 | 2.7 |
| 10 | Adam Jones | 0.0523 | 0.0561 | 0.0606 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 2.6 |
Triple Rate
Everybody Missed for Triple Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Hamilton | 0.0243 |
0.0109
(9.2)
|
0.0115
(8.8)
|
0.0084
(10.2)
|
0.0134
(8.2)
|
| Zack Cozart | 0.0206 |
0.0073
(7.3)
|
0.0086
(6.6)
|
0.0054
(7.7)
|
0.0091
(6.8)
|
| Yolmer Sánchez | 0.0215 |
0.0071
(8.2)
|
0.0043
(9.8)
|
0.0059
(8.4)
|
0.0083
(8.1)
|
| Chris Owings | 0.0037 |
0.0199
(5.9)
|
0.0198
(5.8)
|
0.0188
(5.8)
|
0.0211
(5.9)
|
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.0134 |
0.0037
(6.8)
|
0.0043
(6.4)
|
0.0033
(6.5)
|
0.0041
(7.2)
|
| Dexter Fowler | 0.0295 |
0.0148
(7.7)
|
0.0178
(6.3)
|
0.0123
(8.5)
|
0.0173
(7.0)
|
| Charlie Blackmon | 0.0293 |
0.0114
(13.7)
|
0.0119
(13.4)
|
0.0098
(14.2)
|
0.0130
(13.2)
|
| José Abreu | 0.0127 |
0.0040
(6.6)
|
0.0049
(6.0)
|
0.0034
(6.3)
|
0.0045
(6.9)
|
| Nick Castellanos | 0.0222 |
0.0122
(7.3)
|
0.0123
(7.3)
|
0.0107
(7.7)
|
0.0138
(6.9)
|
| David Peralta | 0.0071 |
0.0234
(8.8)
|
0.0253
(9.9)
|
0.0187
(6.6)
|
0.0282
(11.0)
|
| Brandon Crawford | 0.0025 |
0.0172
(7.8)
|
0.0184
(8.5)
|
0.0166
(8.0)
|
0.0177
(7.5)
|
Individual Misses for Triple Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Benintendi | 0.0165 | 0.0022 | 8.7 |
| 2 | Cory Spangenberg | 0.0235 | 0.0065 | 7.8 |
| 3 | Scott Schebler | 0.0195 | 0.0062 | 6.5 |
| 4 | Max Kepler | 0.0168 | 0.0052 | 6.0 |
| 5 | Daniel Descalso | 0.0073 | 0.0202 | 5.6 |
| 6 | José Reyes | 0.0082 | 0.0169 | 5.5 |
| 7 | Clint Frazier | 0.0101 | 0.0455 | 5.2 |
| 8 | Mitch Garver | 0.0012 | 0.0968 | 5.0 |
| 9 | George Springer | 0.0090 | 0.0000 | 5.0 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eddie Rosario | 0.0237 | 0.0048 | 10.6 |
| 2 | Mikie Mahtook | 0.0051 | 0.0232 | 7.2 |
| 3 | Josh Bell | 0.0051 | 0.0146 | 6.6 |
| 4 | Keon Broxton | 0.0054 | 0.0181 | 6.4 |
| 5 | Franchy Cordero | 0.0067 | 0.0652 | 5.9 |
| 6 | Clint Frazier | 0.0067 | 0.0455 | 5.7 |
| 7 | Corey Seager | 0.0102 | 0.0000 | 5.6 |
| 8 | Jake Lamb | 0.0209 | 0.0111 | 5.5 |
| 9 | Ozzie Albies | 0.0067 | 0.0281 | 5.5 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Benintendi | 0.0154 | 0.0022 | 8.6 |
| 2 | Max Kepler | 0.0153 | 0.0052 | 5.7 |
| 3 | George Springer | 0.0087 | 0.0000 | 5.4 |
| 4 | Clint Frazier | 0.0080 | 0.0455 | 5.3 |
| 5 | Cody Bellinger | 0.0039 | 0.0134 | 5.3 |
| 6 | Aaron Altherr | 0.0077 | 0.0200 | 5.1 |
| 7 | José Reyes | 0.0079 | 0.0169 | 5.1 |
| 8 | Mitch Garver | 0.0023 | 0.0968 | 4.9 |
| 9 | Josh Bell | 0.0071 | 0.0146 | 4.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cory Spangenberg | 0.0335 | 0.0065 | 12.2 |
| 2 | Scott Schebler | 0.0256 | 0.0062 | 9.3 |
| 3 | Andrew Benintendi | 0.0176 | 0.0022 | 8.8 |
| 4 | Daniel Descalso | 0.0058 | 0.0202 | 6.5 |
| 5 | Max Kepler | 0.0182 | 0.0052 | 6.3 |
| 6 | José Reyes | 0.0084 | 0.0169 | 5.9 |
| 7 | Dansby Swanson | 0.0179 | 0.0055 | 5.8 |
| 8 | Tommy Pham | 0.0193 | 0.0065 | 5.8 |
| 9 | Eddie Rosario | 0.0161 | 0.0048 | 5.5 |
Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eddie Rosario | 0.0237 | 0.0141 | 0.0048 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 5.7 |
| 2 | Keon Broxton | 0.0054 | 0.0219 | 0.0181 | 6.4 | 1.3 | 5.1 |
| 3 | Delino DeShields | 0.0167 | 0.0091 | 0.0072 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 3.4 |
| 4 | Josh Bell | 0.0051 | 0.0104 | 0.0146 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| 5 | Ben Gamel | 0.0065 | 0.0124 | 0.0132 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 3.2 |
| 6 | Mikie Mahtook | 0.0051 | 0.0125 | 0.0232 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.8 |
| 7 | Alen Hanson | 0.0065 | 0.0207 | 0.0182 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 2.6 |
| 8 | Joey Gallo | 0.0078 | 0.0125 | 0.0142 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| 9 | Jarrod Dyson | 0.0243 | 0.0178 | 0.0103 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 10 | Adam Engel | 0.0067 | 0.0138 | 0.0161 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 2.4 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Taylor | 0.0101 | 0.0138 | 0.0142 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | Eric Thames | 0.0064 | 0.0101 | 0.0145 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 3 | Josh Bell | 0.0071 | 0.0104 | 0.0146 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 4 | Guillermo Heredia | 0.0070 | 0.0048 | 0.0000 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 5 | Justin Bour | 0.0040 | 0.0020 | 0.0000 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| 6 | Mitch Moreland | 0.0025 | 0.0013 | 0.0000 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.3 |
| 7 | Matt Joyce | 0.0071 | 0.0058 | 0.0000 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 8 | Joe Mauer | 0.0076 | 0.0065 | 0.0023 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 9 | Manuel Margot | 0.0135 | 0.0166 | 0.0188 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 10 | Freddy Galvis | 0.0074 | 0.0100 | 0.0122 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cory Spangenberg | 0.0335 | 0.0235 | 0.0065 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 4.4 |
| 2 | Keon Broxton | 0.0306 | 0.0219 | 0.0181 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 3.6 |
| 3 | Scott Schebler | 0.0256 | 0.0195 | 0.0062 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 2.7 |
| 4 | Tommy Pham | 0.0193 | 0.0142 | 0.0065 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| 5 | Byron Buxton | 0.0280 | 0.0227 | 0.0198 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| 6 | David Peralta | 0.0282 | 0.0234 | 0.0071 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 2.2 |
| 7 | Dansby Swanson | 0.0179 | 0.0134 | 0.0055 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 |
| 8 | Tim Beckham | 0.0247 | 0.0203 | 0.0145 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| 9 | Kevin Kiermaier | 0.0226 | 0.0173 | 0.0111 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 10 | Justin Smoak | 0.0000 | 0.0015 | 0.0025 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
Run Rate
Everybody Missed for Run Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scooter Gennett | 0.1610 |
0.1062
(22.8)
|
0.1105
(22.5)
|
0.0976
(25.9)
|
0.1148
(19.8)
|
| Aaron Judge | 0.1888 |
0.1293
(34.4)
|
0.1107
(49.5)
|
0.1226
(37.3)
|
0.1360
(31.5)
|
| José Ramírez | 0.1659 |
0.1200
(24.0)
|
0.1290
(20.4)
|
0.1165
(24.6)
|
0.1234
(23.4)
|
| Charlie Blackmon | 0.1890 |
0.1346
(33.0)
|
0.1436
(29.2)
|
0.1419
(26.0)
|
0.1274
(40.1)
|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.0945 |
0.1364
(26.8)
|
0.1323
(22.7)
|
0.1475
(34.0)
|
0.1252
(19.6)
|
| Tommy Pham | 0.1792 |
0.1176
(28.0)
|
0.1359
(20.2)
|
0.1085
(31.6)
|
0.1268
(24.5)
|
| Albert Pujols | 0.0833 |
0.1232
(31.0)
|
0.1196
(26.3)
|
0.1259
(34.2)
|
0.1205
(27.6)
|
Individual Misses for Run Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manny Machado | 0.1430 | 0.1174 | 23.7 |
| 2 | Tommy Joseph | 0.1287 | 0.0957 | 22.3 |
| 3 | Chris Taylor | 0.1034 | 0.1496 | 21.3 |
| 4 | Dee Strange-Gordon | 0.1266 | 0.1640 | 19.9 |
| 5 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.1407 | 0.1777 | 19.6 |
| 6 | Jake Marisnick | 0.1125 | 0.1931 | 18.6 |
| 7 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.1152 | 0.1562 | 18.6 |
| 8 | Zack Cozart | 0.1138 | 0.1578 | 17.9 |
| 9 | Paul Goldschmidt | 0.1404 | 0.1759 | 17.8 |
| 10 | Bryce Harper | 0.1487 | 0.1931 | 17.5 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.1298 | 0.1777 | 29.6 |
| 2 | Carlos Correa | 0.1162 | 0.1705 | 23.6 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | 0.1417 | 0.1931 | 22.8 |
| 4 | Jose Altuve | 0.1323 | 0.1692 | 21.0 |
| 5 | Joey Gallo | 0.1154 | 0.1598 | 20.9 |
| 6 | George Springer | 0.1401 | 0.1781 | 20.6 |
| 7 | Hunter Pence | 0.1350 | 0.1020 | 20.6 |
| 8 | Chris Taylor | 0.1098 | 0.1496 | 19.7 |
| 9 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.1178 | 0.1562 | 19.2 |
| 10 | Tommy Joseph | 0.1263 | 0.0957 | 19.1 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Taylor | 0.0888 | 0.1496 | 28.2 |
| 2 | Manny Machado | 0.1451 | 0.1174 | 26.9 |
| 3 | Dee Strange-Gordon | 0.1180 | 0.1640 | 24.2 |
| 4 | Cody Bellinger | 0.1041 | 0.1588 | 23.8 |
| 5 | Hanley Ramirez | 0.1334 | 0.1049 | 22.0 |
| 6 | Zack Cozart | 0.1057 | 0.1578 | 20.7 |
| 7 | Dustin Pedroia | 0.1319 | 0.0994 | 20.3 |
| 8 | Victor Martinez | 0.1225 | 0.0874 | 20.2 |
| 9 | Jon Jay | 0.0936 | 0.1501 | 19.6 |
| 10 | Jake Marisnick | 0.1063 | 0.1931 | 19.6 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tommy Joseph | 0.1395 | 0.0957 | 26.7 |
| 2 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.1364 | 0.1777 | 24.3 |
| 3 | Hunter Pence | 0.1379 | 0.1020 | 22.7 |
| 4 | Manny Machado | 0.1409 | 0.1174 | 20.5 |
| 5 | Wil Myers | 0.1481 | 0.1233 | 20.2 |
| 6 | J.D. Martinez | 0.1271 | 0.1738 | 19.8 |
| 7 | Bryce Harper | 0.1467 | 0.1931 | 19.7 |
| 8 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.1162 | 0.1562 | 19.4 |
| 9 | Carlos Correa | 0.1246 | 0.1705 | 19.0 |
| 10 | Paul Goldschmidt | 0.1413 | 0.1759 | 18.9 |
Most Unique Misses for Run Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Judge | 0.1107 | 0.1293 | 0.1888 | 49.5 | 34.4 | 15.1 |
| 2 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.1298 | 0.1407 | 0.1777 | 29.6 | 19.6 | 10.0 |
| 3 | Eric Thames | 0.1240 | 0.1380 | 0.1506 | 11.8 | 2.1 | 9.7 |
| 4 | Trevor Story | 0.1439 | 0.1249 | 0.1225 | 14.7 | 6.2 | 8.5 |
| 5 | Mike Zunino | 0.0938 | 0.1117 | 0.1195 | 8.9 | 0.4 | 8.5 |
| 6 | Carlos Santana | 0.1153 | 0.1288 | 0.1349 | 9.6 | 1.7 | 7.9 |
| 7 | Carlos Correa | 0.1162 | 0.1283 | 0.1705 | 23.6 | 16.1 | 7.6 |
| 8 | Domingo Santana | 0.1141 | 0.1229 | 0.1450 | 15.6 | 8.0 | 7.5 |
| 9 | Joey Gallo | 0.1154 | 0.1257 | 0.1598 | 20.9 | 13.5 | 7.4 |
| 10 | José Abreu | 0.1160 | 0.1230 | 0.1407 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 7.2 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Santana | 0.1437 | 0.1288 | 0.1349 | 13.3 | 1.7 | 11.6 |
| 2 | Nick Castellanos | 0.1158 | 0.1061 | 0.1098 | 11.5 | 3.4 | 8.1 |
| 3 | Mike Moustakas | 0.1299 | 0.1135 | 0.1254 | 9.4 | 1.9 | 7.5 |
| 4 | Victor Martinez | 0.1225 | 0.1076 | 0.0874 | 20.2 | 12.6 | 7.5 |
| 5 | Miguel Cabrera | 0.1475 | 0.1364 | 0.0945 | 34.0 | 26.8 | 7.2 |
| 6 | Cody Bellinger | 0.1041 | 0.1192 | 0.1588 | 23.8 | 16.9 | 6.9 |
| 7 | Chris Taylor | 0.0888 | 0.1034 | 0.1496 | 28.2 | 21.3 | 6.9 |
| 8 | Cory Spangenberg | 0.0907 | 0.1064 | 0.1173 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 6.5 |
| 9 | Hanley Ramirez | 0.1334 | 0.1249 | 0.1049 | 22.0 | 15.9 | 6.1 |
| 10 | Nomar Mazara | 0.1182 | 0.1109 | 0.1039 | 15.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Moustakas | 0.0971 | 0.1135 | 0.1254 | 13.2 | 1.9 | 11.3 |
| 2 | Carlos Santana | 0.1138 | 0.1288 | 0.1349 | 9.9 | 1.7 | 8.1 |
| 3 | Mitch Moreland | 0.0937 | 0.1047 | 0.1267 | 15.4 | 7.6 | 7.8 |
| 4 | Wil Myers | 0.1481 | 0.1338 | 0.1233 | 20.2 | 12.6 | 7.7 |
| 5 | Charlie Blackmon | 0.1274 | 0.1346 | 0.1890 | 40.1 | 33.0 | 7.1 |
| 6 | Steven Souza Jr. | 0.1312 | 0.1183 | 0.1264 | 6.8 | 0.4 | 6.4 |
| 7 | DJ LeMahieu | 0.1177 | 0.1244 | 0.1393 | 10.4 | 4.1 | 6.3 |
| 8 | Adam Duvall | 0.1348 | 0.1236 | 0.1206 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 |
| 9 | Yadier Molina | 0.0848 | 0.0925 | 0.1105 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 5.5 |
| 10 | Ender Inciarte | 0.1342 | 0.1243 | 0.1295 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 5.3 |
RBI Rate
Everybody Missed for RBI Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scooter Gennett | 0.1952 |
0.1017
(44.7)
|
0.0988
(45.0)
|
0.0979
(46.1)
|
0.1056
(43.2)
|
| Anthony Rendon | 0.1653 |
0.1204
(25.0)
|
0.1148
(27.0)
|
0.1216
(23.8)
|
0.1193
(26.3)
|
| Lorenzo Cain | 0.0760 |
0.1118
(25.4)
|
0.1179
(30.8)
|
0.1102
(25.0)
|
0.1133
(25.8)
|
| Ryan Zimmerman | 0.1875 |
0.1373
(26.9)
|
0.1306
(29.4)
|
0.1365
(26.8)
|
0.1380
(27.0)
|
| Mark Trumbo | 0.1078 |
0.1641
(36.1)
|
0.1421
(24.2)
|
0.1577
(32.8)
|
0.1706
(39.4)
|
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.1826 |
0.1290
(34.0)
|
0.1161
(41.2)
|
0.1350
(29.3)
|
0.1229
(38.8)
|
| Carlos González | 0.1067 |
0.1548
(27.6)
|
0.1486
(25.5)
|
0.1571
(29.3)
|
0.1526
(25.9)
|
| José Bautista | 0.0948 |
0.1563
(44.7)
|
0.1465
(39.5)
|
0.1460
(38.2)
|
0.1667
(51.1)
|
| Kris Bryant | 0.1098 |
0.1537
(31.6)
|
0.1415
(25.0)
|
0.1451
(26.5)
|
0.1622
(36.6)
|
| J.D. Martinez | 0.2127 |
0.1448
(31.4)
|
0.1415
(32.0)
|
0.1439
(31.5)
|
0.1458
(31.4)
|
| Marwin Gonzalez | 0.1748 |
0.1043
(34.4)
|
0.0942
(38.5)
|
0.1119
(30.1)
|
0.0968
(38.8)
|
Individual Misses for RBI Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Pillar | 0.1061 | 0.0665 | 27.3 |
| 2 | Hanley Ramirez | 0.1568 | 0.1121 | 26.7 |
| 3 | Gerardo Parra | 0.1028 | 0.1671 | 25.8 |
| 4 | Travis Shaw | 0.1208 | 0.1667 | 25.6 |
| 5 | Charlie Blackmon | 0.1062 | 0.1434 | 24.4 |
| 6 | Miguel Cabrera | 0.1559 | 0.1134 | 24.3 |
| 7 | Chris Davis | 0.1592 | 0.1164 | 24.3 |
| 8 | Carlos Beltrán | 0.1426 | 0.1002 | 23.4 |
| 9 | Paul Goldschmidt | 0.1418 | 0.1805 | 23.3 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Judge | 0.1067 | 0.1681 | 37.7 |
| 2 | Gerardo Parra | 0.0893 | 0.1671 | 30.6 |
| 3 | Cody Bellinger | 0.1182 | 0.1770 | 29.0 |
| 4 | Nomar Mazara | 0.1111 | 0.1640 | 29.0 |
| 5 | Mark Reynolds | 0.1116 | 0.1636 | 27.4 |
| 6 | Guillermo Heredia | 0.1085 | 0.0563 | 24.7 |
| 7 | Corey Dickerson | 0.1320 | 0.0986 | 24.7 |
| 8 | Trevor Plouffe | 0.1316 | 0.0607 | 24.0 |
| 9 | Ian Kinsler | 0.1174 | 0.0848 | 23.6 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Pillar | 0.1087 | 0.0665 | 29.5 |
| 2 | Paul Goldschmidt | 0.1345 | 0.1805 | 27.6 |
| 3 | Cody Bellinger | 0.1235 | 0.1770 | 26.9 |
| 4 | Miguel Cabrera | 0.1556 | 0.1134 | 24.7 |
| 5 | Hanley Ramirez | 0.1522 | 0.1121 | 24.6 |
| 6 | Ian Happ | 0.1008 | 0.1646 | 24.5 |
| 7 | Charlie Blackmon | 0.1055 | 0.1434 | 24.3 |
| 8 | Justin Bour | 0.1334 | 0.1935 | 23.9 |
| 9 | Travis Shaw | 0.1235 | 0.1667 | 23.5 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rajai Davis | 0.1348 | 0.0546 | 30.3 |
| 2 | Gerardo Parra | 0.0934 | 0.1671 | 30.2 |
| 3 | Hanley Ramirez | 0.1614 | 0.1121 | 28.7 |
| 4 | Travis Shaw | 0.1181 | 0.1667 | 27.9 |
| 5 | Chris Davis | 0.1664 | 0.1164 | 27.6 |
| 6 | Carlos Beltrán | 0.1478 | 0.1002 | 25.6 |
| 7 | Nomar Mazara | 0.1204 | 0.1640 | 25.2 |
| 8 | Kevin Pillar | 0.1034 | 0.0665 | 25.0 |
| 9 | Charlie Blackmon | 0.1069 | 0.1434 | 24.6 |
Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Judge | 0.1067 | 0.1456 | 0.1681 | 37.7 | 12.9 | 24.8 |
| 2 | Joey Gallo | 0.1026 | 0.1391 | 0.1504 | 22.3 | 4.1 | 18.3 |
| 3 | Adam Engel | 0.1182 | 0.0809 | 0.0625 | 20.7 | 7.4 | 13.3 |
| 4 | Manuel Margot | 0.1062 | 0.0848 | 0.0737 | 20.3 | 7.7 | 12.5 |
| 5 | Guillermo Heredia | 0.1085 | 0.0845 | 0.0563 | 24.7 | 13.5 | 11.2 |
| 6 | Daniel Robertson | 0.1182 | 0.0811 | 0.0748 | 12.5 | 2.5 | 10.0 |
| 7 | Mark Reynolds | 0.1116 | 0.1304 | 0.1636 | 27.4 | 17.6 | 9.8 |
| 8 | Austin Hedges | 0.0940 | 0.1194 | 0.1319 | 13.4 | 3.7 | 9.7 |
| 9 | Jorge Bonifacio | 0.1182 | 0.0981 | 0.0948 | 12.4 | 2.9 | 9.5 |
| 10 | Cody Bellinger | 0.1182 | 0.1376 | 0.1770 | 29.0 | 19.6 | 9.4 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manny Machado | 0.1566 | 0.1448 | 0.1377 | 16.1 | 7.4 | 8.7 |
| 2 | Aaron Judge | 0.1321 | 0.1456 | 0.1681 | 21.4 | 12.9 | 8.5 |
| 3 | Cody Bellinger | 0.1235 | 0.1376 | 0.1770 | 26.9 | 19.6 | 7.3 |
| 4 | Carlos Correa | 0.1368 | 0.1527 | 0.1746 | 16.1 | 8.8 | 7.2 |
| 5 | Brandon Crawford | 0.1091 | 0.1224 | 0.1351 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 7.1 |
| 6 | Jay Bruce | 0.1330 | 0.1428 | 0.1637 | 16.2 | 10.7 | 5.5 |
| 7 | Justin Smoak | 0.1214 | 0.1304 | 0.1413 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 5.2 |
| 8 | Dee Strange-Gordon | 0.0688 | 0.0625 | 0.0475 | 17.9 | 12.9 | 5.0 |
| 9 | Mookie Betts | 0.1457 | 0.1397 | 0.1433 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 4.9 |
| 10 | Eric Sogard | 0.0816 | 0.0663 | 0.0602 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 4.8 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albert Pujols | 0.1842 | 0.1687 | 0.1588 | 17.8 | 8.5 | 9.2 |
| 2 | Mike Moustakas | 0.1024 | 0.1167 | 0.1421 | 22.2 | 13.1 | 9.2 |
| 3 | Jose Iglesias | 0.0664 | 0.0817 | 0.1104 | 20.3 | 12.3 | 7.9 |
| 4 | Kyle Schwarber | 0.1692 | 0.1519 | 0.1214 | 24.5 | 16.6 | 7.9 |
| 5 | Rajai Davis | 0.1348 | 0.1133 | 0.0546 | 30.3 | 22.8 | 7.5 |
| 6 | Michael Brantley | 0.1629 | 0.1435 | 0.1387 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 6.9 |
| 7 | Corey Seager | 0.1467 | 0.1349 | 0.1256 | 14.5 | 7.9 | 6.6 |
| 8 | Russell Martin | 0.1537 | 0.1349 | 0.0959 | 22.0 | 15.5 | 6.5 |
| 9 | José Bautista | 0.1667 | 0.1563 | 0.0948 | 51.1 | 44.7 | 6.4 |
| 10 | Lucas Duda | 0.1623 | 0.1483 | 0.1303 | 17.0 | 10.6 | 6.4 |
Stolen Base Rate
Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Maybin | 0.2973 |
0.1161
(85.3)
|
0.1138
(84.7)
|
0.1105
(87.4)
|
0.1217
(83.1)
|
| Andrelton Simmons | 0.1187 |
0.0502
(49.8)
|
0.0465
(49.8)
|
0.0510
(48.7)
|
0.0493
(50.8)
|
| Rajai Davis | 0.3580 |
0.1457
(80.8)
|
0.2685
(34.5)
|
0.2720
(34.2)
|
0.0000
(134.4)
|
| Whit Merrifield | 0.2313 |
0.1343
(66.4)
|
0.0805
(98.1)
|
0.1293
(69.0)
|
0.1395
(63.5)
|
| Charlie Blackmon | 0.0693 |
0.1443
(48.2)
|
0.1513
(56.0)
|
0.1387
(44.8)
|
0.1500
(51.9)
|
| Alex Bregman | 0.1083 |
0.0606
(35.1)
|
0.0571
(35.0)
|
0.0602
(34.8)
|
0.0611
(35.2)
|
| Trea Turner | 0.4182 |
0.2417
(82.6)
|
0.2526
(76.1)
|
0.2420
(82.1)
|
0.2414
(83.1)
|
| Byron Buxton | 0.2358 |
0.1412
(52.6)
|
0.1169
(63.2)
|
0.1445
(50.4)
|
0.1379
(54.6)
|
| Alcides Escobar | 0.0328 |
0.1145
(46.1)
|
0.1181
(50.6)
|
0.1099
(43.8)
|
0.1192
(48.6)
|
Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Engel | 0.2591 | 0.1404 | 37.1 |
| 2 | Carlos Correa | 0.0981 | 0.0145 | 36.2 |
| 3 | Domingo Santana | 0.0397 | 0.0904 | 35.9 |
| 4 | Yasiel Puig | 0.0516 | 0.1049 | 35.2 |
| 5 | Yoán Moncada | 0.2058 | 0.0500 | 34.0 |
| 6 | José Reyes | 0.1356 | 0.1875 | 33.8 |
| 7 | Todd Frazier | 0.0924 | 0.0265 | 33.1 |
| 8 | Eric Thames | 0.0974 | 0.0292 | 33.0 |
| 9 | DJ LeMahieu | 0.0847 | 0.0280 | 32.9 |
| 10 | Grégor Blanco | 0.0952 | 0.2143 | 32.6 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradley Zimmer | 0.0572 | 0.2338 | 60.2 |
| 2 | Tommy Pham | 0.0541 | 0.1471 | 51.8 |
| 3 | Taylor Motter | 0.0508 | 0.2264 | 50.5 |
| 4 | Andrew Benintendi | 0.0469 | 0.1087 | 43.8 |
| 5 | Alen Hanson | 0.0755 | 0.2444 | 40.7 |
| 6 | Delino DeShields | 0.1444 | 0.2320 | 40.6 |
| 7 | Todd Frazier | 0.1008 | 0.0265 | 40.0 |
| 8 | Rougned Odor | 0.0820 | 0.1364 | 38.5 |
| 9 | Hernán Pérez | 0.2143 | 0.1354 | 33.9 |
| 10 | Lane Adams | 0.0612 | 0.3226 | 32.5 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Reyes | 0.1282 | 0.1875 | 37.4 |
| 2 | Eric Thames | 0.1016 | 0.0292 | 35.8 |
| 3 | Ben Gamel | 0.1021 | 0.0299 | 35.6 |
| 4 | Tommy Pham | 0.0882 | 0.1471 | 35.1 |
| 5 | Yasiel Puig | 0.0521 | 0.1049 | 34.4 |
| 6 | Brett Gardner | 0.0809 | 0.1237 | 34.3 |
| 7 | Yoán Moncada | 0.2028 | 0.0500 | 33.6 |
| 8 | Lane Adams | 0.0572 | 0.3226 | 33.3 |
| 9 | Grégor Blanco | 0.0927 | 0.2143 | 33.0 |
| 10 | Ben Revere | 0.1662 | 0.2658 | 33.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billy Hamilton | 0.4720 | 0.3782 | 53.6 |
| 2 | Allen Córdoba | 0.2381 | 0.0357 | 43.9 |
| 3 | Carlos Correa | 0.1136 | 0.0145 | 43.3 |
| 4 | DJ LeMahieu | 0.1000 | 0.0280 | 42.9 |
| 5 | Jarrod Dyson | 0.3867 | 0.2692 | 42.3 |
| 6 | Adam Engel | 0.2743 | 0.1404 | 42.0 |
| 7 | Domingo Santana | 0.0351 | 0.0904 | 39.1 |
| 8 | Todd Frazier | 0.1007 | 0.0265 | 37.5 |
| 9 | Yasiel Puig | 0.0511 | 0.1049 | 35.8 |
| 10 | Rougned Odor | 0.0916 | 0.1364 | 35.0 |
Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradley Zimmer | 0.0572 | 0.1850 | 0.2338 | 60.2 | 19.0 | 41.2 |
| 2 | Alen Hanson | 0.0755 | 0.2369 | 0.2444 | 40.7 | 3.7 | 36.9 |
| 3 | Andrew Benintendi | 0.0469 | 0.1000 | 0.1087 | 43.8 | 11.3 | 32.6 |
| 4 | Whit Merrifield | 0.0805 | 0.1343 | 0.2313 | 98.1 | 66.4 | 31.6 |
| 5 | Delino DeShields | 0.1444 | 0.2051 | 0.2320 | 40.6 | 15.5 | 25.1 |
| 6 | Taylor Motter | 0.0508 | 0.1420 | 0.2264 | 50.5 | 26.0 | 24.5 |
| 7 | Matt Davidson | 0.0612 | 0.0110 | 0.0000 | 25.0 | 1.1 | 23.9 |
| 8 | Trey Mancini | 0.0600 | 0.0231 | 0.0069 | 28.3 | 4.6 | 23.7 |
| 9 | Tommy Pham | 0.0541 | 0.0981 | 0.1471 | 51.8 | 30.4 | 21.5 |
| 10 | Lane Adams | 0.0612 | 0.2315 | 0.3226 | 32.5 | 12.1 | 20.3 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lane Adams | 0.0572 | 0.2315 | 0.3226 | 33.3 | 12.1 | 21.2 |
| 2 | Dee Strange-Gordon | 0.2768 | 0.2972 | 0.2927 | 16.2 | 2.7 | 13.5 |
| 3 | Guillermo Heredia | 0.0746 | 0.0504 | 0.0089 | 24.8 | 14.1 | 10.7 |
| 4 | Lorenzo Cain | 0.1148 | 0.1309 | 0.1390 | 20.5 | 10.6 | 9.8 |
| 5 | Robinson Chirinos | 0.0532 | 0.0267 | 0.0125 | 10.3 | 1.8 | 8.5 |
| 6 | Michael A. Taylor | 0.1702 | 0.1927 | 0.1828 | 8.7 | 0.6 | 8.0 |
| 7 | Adam Frazier | 0.1331 | 0.1164 | 0.0726 | 24.1 | 16.1 | 8.0 |
| 8 | Michael Brantley | 0.0604 | 0.0817 | 0.1058 | 19.8 | 12.2 | 7.7 |
| 9 | Mookie Betts | 0.1246 | 0.1360 | 0.1503 | 23.6 | 16.2 | 7.4 |
| 10 | Jed Lowrie | 0.0205 | 0.0102 | 0.0000 | 8.4 | 1.2 | 7.2 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rajai Davis | 0.0000 | 0.1457 | 0.3580 | 134.4 | 80.8 | 53.6 |
| 2 | Billy Hamilton | 0.4720 | 0.4374 | 0.3782 | 53.6 | 32.1 | 21.5 |
| 3 | Jarrod Dyson | 0.3867 | 0.3417 | 0.2692 | 42.3 | 25.0 | 17.3 |
| 4 | Adalberto Mondesi | 0.0572 | 0.2751 | 0.5000 | 27.1 | 14.0 | 13.1 |
| 5 | Jose Altuve | 0.1907 | 0.1716 | 0.1569 | 16.4 | 4.2 | 12.2 |
| 6 | Allen Córdoba | 0.2381 | 0.1857 | 0.0357 | 43.9 | 32.1 | 11.7 |
| 7 | Jean Segura | 0.1911 | 0.1726 | 0.1429 | 22.2 | 12.1 | 10.1 |
| 8 | DJ LeMahieu | 0.1000 | 0.0847 | 0.0280 | 42.9 | 32.9 | 10.0 |
| 9 | Michael A. Taylor | 0.2157 | 0.1927 | 0.1828 | 10.3 | 0.6 | 9.7 |
| 10 | Carlos González | 0.0560 | 0.0375 | 0.0226 | 13.0 | 3.5 | 9.5 |
Batting Average
Everybody Missed for Batting Average
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Cozart | 0.2968 |
0.2474
(24.4)
|
0.2459
(26.8)
|
0.2466
(25.6)
|
0.2482
(23.3)
|
| Rougned Odor | 0.2043 |
0.2747
(46.6)
|
0.2638
(37.5)
|
0.2748
(45.8)
|
0.2745
(47.5)
|
| Ryan Zimmerman | 0.3034 |
0.2491
(30.6)
|
0.2399
(37.7)
|
0.2602
(25.0)
|
0.2380
(36.2)
|
| Aaron Judge | 0.2841 |
0.2383
(30.2)
|
0.2335
(35.6)
|
0.2475
(25.0)
|
0.2291
(35.5)
|
| Justin Smoak | 0.2696 |
0.2274
(26.1)
|
0.2263
(28.9)
|
0.2244
(29.0)
|
0.2303
(23.4)
|
| Avisaíl García | 0.3301 |
0.2595
(38.9)
|
0.2500
(46.0)
|
0.2621
(38.3)
|
0.2569
(39.6)
|
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.3116 |
0.2687
(28.2)
|
0.2626
(34.5)
|
0.2726
(26.6)
|
0.2649
(29.9)
|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.2495 |
0.3056
(30.4)
|
0.3104
(31.2)
|
0.3099
(31.8)
|
0.3014
(28.9)
|
| José Bautista | 0.2027 |
0.2503
(33.5)
|
0.2541
(33.9)
|
0.2488
(31.4)
|
0.2518
(35.5)
|
| Tommy Pham | 0.3063 |
0.2479
(30.3)
|
0.2482
(31.8)
|
0.2514
(29.2)
|
0.2444
(31.4)
|
| Eric Hosmer | 0.3184 |
0.2774
(26.7)
|
0.2742
(30.9)
|
0.2781
(27.2)
|
0.2767
(26.2)
|
| Josh Reddick | 0.3145 |
0.2668
(25.1)
|
0.2708
(24.6)
|
0.2669
(25.8)
|
0.2667
(24.4)
|
Individual Misses for Batting Average
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | 0.3083 | 0.2643 | 32.2 |
| 2 | Charlie Blackmon | 0.2930 | 0.3307 | 26.5 |
| 3 | Maikel Franco | 0.2706 | 0.2296 | 26.3 |
| 4 | Tim Beckham | 0.2334 | 0.2777 | 24.7 |
| 5 | Manny Machado | 0.2912 | 0.2587 | 23.3 |
| 6 | Marwin Gonzalez | 0.2568 | 0.3033 | 23.3 |
| 7 | Justin Turner | 0.2782 | 0.3217 | 22.9 |
| 8 | Ian Kinsler | 0.2716 | 0.2359 | 22.6 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Engel | 0.2587 | 0.1661 | 30.5 |
| 2 | José Ramírez | 0.2744 | 0.3179 | 29.4 |
| 3 | Charlie Blackmon | 0.2949 | 0.3307 | 27.4 |
| 4 | Ian Kinsler | 0.2823 | 0.2359 | 27.3 |
| 5 | Chris Taylor | 0.2422 | 0.2879 | 27.1 |
| 6 | Jonathan Schoop | 0.2556 | 0.2926 | 26.2 |
| 7 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.2551 | 0.2987 | 25.6 |
| 8 | Joe Mauer | 0.2651 | 0.3048 | 24.8 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | 0.3097 | 0.2643 | 32.1 |
| 2 | Charlie Blackmon | 0.2883 | 0.3307 | 30.9 |
| 3 | Marwin Gonzalez | 0.2513 | 0.3033 | 26.9 |
| 4 | Tim Beckham | 0.2313 | 0.2777 | 26.8 |
| 5 | Maikel Franco | 0.2715 | 0.2296 | 26.0 |
| 6 | Kyle Schwarber | 0.2643 | 0.2109 | 25.8 |
| 7 | Manny Machado | 0.2936 | 0.2587 | 23.9 |
| 8 | Justin Turner | 0.2779 | 0.3217 | 23.9 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | 0.3070 | 0.2643 | 32.2 |
| 2 | Maikel Franco | 0.2697 | 0.2296 | 26.6 |
| 3 | Ian Kinsler | 0.2754 | 0.2359 | 25.8 |
| 4 | Joe Mauer | 0.2624 | 0.3048 | 23.7 |
| 5 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.2543 | 0.2987 | 23.6 |
| 6 | Tim Beckham | 0.2355 | 0.2777 | 22.7 |
| 7 | Hanley Ramirez | 0.2803 | 0.2419 | 22.7 |
| 8 | Manny Machado | 0.2889 | 0.2587 | 22.6 |
Most Unique Misses for Batting Average
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Engel | 0.2587 | 0.2162 | 0.1661 | 30.5 | 17.3 | 13.2 |
| 2 | Byron Buxton | 0.2316 | 0.2510 | 0.2532 | 12.0 | 0.5 | 11.5 |
| 3 | Hunter Renfroe | 0.2709 | 0.2440 | 0.2315 | 18.0 | 6.6 | 11.4 |
| 4 | Keon Broxton | 0.2456 | 0.2188 | 0.2198 | 11.1 | 0.1 | 10.9 |
| 5 | Matt Davidson | 0.2554 | 0.2069 | 0.2198 | 14.9 | 5.1 | 9.8 |
| 6 | Chris Taylor | 0.2422 | 0.2560 | 0.2879 | 27.1 | 17.4 | 9.7 |
| 7 | José Ramírez | 0.2744 | 0.2858 | 0.3179 | 29.4 | 19.9 | 9.4 |
| 8 | Ben Gamel | 0.2404 | 0.2526 | 0.2750 | 20.1 | 11.7 | 8.5 |
| 9 | Leury García | 0.2275 | 0.2494 | 0.2700 | 14.5 | 6.3 | 8.2 |
| 10 | Alex Bregman | 0.2568 | 0.2665 | 0.2842 | 18.3 | 10.3 | 8.0 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eric Thames | 0.2715 | 0.2590 | 0.2473 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 6.1 |
| 2 | Matt Holliday | 0.2714 | 0.2576 | 0.2306 | 17.3 | 12.1 | 5.3 |
| 3 | David Peralta | 0.2723 | 0.2792 | 0.2933 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 4.8 |
| 4 | Byron Buxton | 0.2433 | 0.2510 | 0.2532 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 4.7 |
| 5 | Adam Duvall | 0.2330 | 0.2385 | 0.2487 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 4.5 |
| 6 | Eduardo Núñez | 0.2679 | 0.2755 | 0.3126 | 22.1 | 17.6 | 4.5 |
| 7 | Charlie Blackmon | 0.2883 | 0.2930 | 0.3307 | 30.9 | 26.5 | 4.5 |
| 8 | Kyle Schwarber | 0.2643 | 0.2537 | 0.2109 | 25.8 | 21.4 | 4.4 |
| 9 | Jay Bruce | 0.2343 | 0.2391 | 0.2541 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.9 |
| 10 | Ender Inciarte | 0.2788 | 0.2826 | 0.3036 | 18.0 | 14.2 | 3.9 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.2380 | 0.2491 | 0.3034 | 36.2 | 30.6 | 5.6 |
| 2 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.2543 | 0.2652 | 0.2987 | 23.6 | 18.2 | 5.4 |
| 3 | Ben Gamel | 0.2416 | 0.2526 | 0.2750 | 17.0 | 11.7 | 5.3 |
| 4 | Aaron Judge | 0.2291 | 0.2383 | 0.2841 | 35.5 | 30.2 | 5.3 |
| 5 | Martín Maldonado | 0.2000 | 0.2115 | 0.2214 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 4.8 |
| 6 | Edwin Encarnación | 0.2646 | 0.2591 | 0.2581 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 4.6 |
| 7 | José Reyes | 0.2673 | 0.2615 | 0.2455 | 13.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 |
| 8 | Jordan Luplow | 0.2587 | 0.2142 | 0.2051 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 4.0 |
| 9 | Francisco Lindor | 0.2980 | 0.2940 | 0.2734 | 19.7 | 15.8 | 3.9 |
| 10 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.2542 | 0.2612 | 0.2814 | 17.0 | 13.1 | 3.9 |
On-Base Percentage
Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Cozart | 0.3846 |
0.2984
(39.8)
|
0.3006
(41.0)
|
0.2991
(40.7)
|
0.2977
(39.0)
|
| Anthony Rendon | 0.4033 |
0.3482
(28.7)
|
0.3434
(34.4)
|
0.3534
(27.0)
|
0.3430
(30.4)
|
| Rougned Odor | 0.2519 |
0.3125
(44.5)
|
0.3052
(36.7)
|
0.3141
(43.9)
|
0.3109
(45.0)
|
| Justin Turner | 0.4151 |
0.3438
(34.5)
|
0.3528
(32.1)
|
0.3448
(35.3)
|
0.3427
(33.9)
|
| Aaron Judge | 0.4218 |
0.3124
(69.0)
|
0.3016
(79.4)
|
0.3241
(62.7)
|
0.3008
(75.3)
|
| Avisaíl García | 0.3797 |
0.3161
(31.3)
|
0.3091
(37.9)
|
0.3206
(30.2)
|
0.3116
(32.6)
|
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.3756 |
0.3222
(31.0)
|
0.3148
(39.1)
|
0.3271
(29.3)
|
0.3173
(32.7)
|
| Charlie Blackmon | 0.3989 |
0.3486
(30.8)
|
0.3522
(31.6)
|
0.3460
(34.5)
|
0.3513
(27.2)
|
| José Bautista | 0.3076 |
0.3687
(47.3)
|
0.3711
(45.7)
|
0.3689
(45.7)
|
0.3686
(48.8)
|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.3289 |
0.3862
(34.4)
|
0.3873
(32.5)
|
0.3934
(36.9)
|
0.3791
(31.8)
|
| Eugenio Suárez | 0.3671 |
0.3141
(28.6)
|
0.3166
(29.9)
|
0.3142
(30.1)
|
0.3140
(27.2)
|
| Tommy Pham | 0.4110 |
0.3220
(43.1)
|
0.3279
(42.4)
|
0.3241
(43.3)
|
0.3199
(43.0)
|
| Marwin Gonzalez | 0.3770 |
0.2974
(37.0)
|
0.3103
(32.7)
|
0.2934
(40.3)
|
0.3014
(33.7)
|
Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manny Machado | 0.3516 | 0.3101 | 34.0 |
| 2 | Maikel Franco | 0.3230 | 0.2809 | 31.1 |
| 3 | Mike Napoli | 0.3357 | 0.2851 | 28.3 |
| 4 | Albert Pujols | 0.3203 | 0.2862 | 26.7 |
| 5 | Alex Gordon | 0.3338 | 0.2931 | 26.2 |
| 6 | Ben Zobrist | 0.3610 | 0.3178 | 25.3 |
| 7 | Eric Sogard | 0.3006 | 0.3926 | 25.2 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Engel | 0.3289 | 0.2348 | 32.7 |
| 2 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.2983 | 0.3576 | 32.4 |
| 3 | Eric Hosmer | 0.3361 | 0.3845 | 30.4 |
| 4 | Justin Smoak | 0.3050 | 0.3548 | 29.7 |
| 5 | Matt Davidson | 0.3202 | 0.2596 | 28.2 |
| 6 | Jonathan Schoop | 0.2931 | 0.3378 | 28.1 |
| 7 | Michael Conforto | 0.3176 | 0.3841 | 27.9 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manny Machado | 0.3545 | 0.3101 | 34.2 |
| 2 | Maikel Franco | 0.3242 | 0.2809 | 30.2 |
| 3 | Albert Pujols | 0.3257 | 0.2862 | 28.5 |
| 4 | Mike Napoli | 0.3367 | 0.2851 | 27.6 |
| 5 | Tyler Flowers | 0.3011 | 0.3784 | 26.6 |
| 6 | Jose Altuve | 0.3649 | 0.4100 | 26.4 |
| 7 | Ben Zobrist | 0.3649 | 0.3178 | 26.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manny Machado | 0.3488 | 0.3101 | 33.6 |
| 2 | Maikel Franco | 0.3219 | 0.2809 | 31.8 |
| 3 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.2954 | 0.3576 | 30.1 |
| 4 | Mike Napoli | 0.3347 | 0.2851 | 28.9 |
| 5 | Alex Gordon | 0.3327 | 0.2931 | 26.8 |
| 6 | Hanley Ramirez | 0.3583 | 0.3201 | 26.7 |
| 7 | Eric Hosmer | 0.3349 | 0.3845 | 26.6 |
Most Unique Misses for On-Base Percentage
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hunter Renfroe | 0.3288 | 0.2832 | 0.2839 | 23.0 | 3.4 | 19.6 |
| 2 | Matt Davidson | 0.3202 | 0.2812 | 0.2596 | 28.2 | 13.0 | 15.2 |
| 3 | Adam Engel | 0.3289 | 0.2817 | 0.2348 | 32.7 | 18.4 | 14.3 |
| 4 | Keon Broxton | 0.3333 | 0.3006 | 0.2987 | 17.5 | 4.5 | 13.0 |
| 5 | Alex Bregman | 0.3135 | 0.3288 | 0.3520 | 22.2 | 9.7 | 12.5 |
| 6 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.3068 | 0.3254 | 0.3316 | 12.2 | 0.9 | 11.3 |
| 7 | Aaron Judge | 0.3016 | 0.3124 | 0.4218 | 79.4 | 69.0 | 10.5 |
| 8 | Byron Buxton | 0.2894 | 0.3048 | 0.3142 | 11.1 | 0.9 | 10.2 |
| 9 | Chris Taylor | 0.3033 | 0.3164 | 0.3539 | 27.0 | 16.9 | 10.1 |
| 10 | José Ramírez | 0.3303 | 0.3412 | 0.3736 | 26.0 | 15.9 | 10.0 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Peralta | 0.3252 | 0.3345 | 0.3518 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 6.8 |
| 2 | Matt Holliday | 0.3560 | 0.3406 | 0.3162 | 19.3 | 13.7 | 5.5 |
| 3 | Byron Buxton | 0.2982 | 0.3048 | 0.3142 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 4.6 |
| 4 | Edwin Encarnación | 0.3490 | 0.3533 | 0.3772 | 15.4 | 10.8 | 4.5 |
| 5 | Paul DeJong | 0.2834 | 0.2910 | 0.3251 | 16.1 | 11.7 | 4.5 |
| 6 | Victor Martinez | 0.3444 | 0.3319 | 0.3241 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 4.3 |
| 7 | Adam Duvall | 0.2887 | 0.2928 | 0.3014 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 4.3 |
| 8 | Steven Souza Jr. | 0.3064 | 0.3104 | 0.3512 | 24.4 | 20.4 | 4.0 |
| 9 | Cory Spangenberg | 0.3080 | 0.3135 | 0.3223 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 3.9 |
| 10 | Charlie Blackmon | 0.3460 | 0.3486 | 0.3989 | 34.5 | 30.8 | 3.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.2954 | 0.3088 | 0.3576 | 30.1 | 23.7 | 6.4 |
| 2 | Eric Thames | 0.3215 | 0.3354 | 0.3593 | 15.3 | 8.9 | 6.4 |
| 3 | Aaron Judge | 0.3008 | 0.3124 | 0.4218 | 75.3 | 69.0 | 6.3 |
| 4 | Ben Gamel | 0.2929 | 0.3056 | 0.3224 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 5.7 |
| 5 | Austin Hays | 0.3289 | 0.2135 | 0.2381 | 6.4 | 1.1 | 5.3 |
| 6 | Jordan Luplow | 0.3289 | 0.2800 | 0.2759 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 4.5 |
| 7 | Mike Aviles | 0.3289 | 0.2910 | 0.2979 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 3.9 |
| 8 | Daniel Murphy | 0.3447 | 0.3534 | 0.3845 | 17.6 | 13.9 | 3.8 |
| 9 | Adalberto Mondesi | 0.3289 | 0.2712 | 0.2143 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| 10 | José Reyes | 0.3157 | 0.3118 | 0.3147 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 3.5 |
Slugging Percentage
Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Cozart | 0.5479 |
0.3929
(68.8)
|
0.3944
(71.7)
|
0.3901
(70.2)
|
0.3956
(67.6)
|
| Ryan Zimmerman | 0.5725 |
0.4241
(74.4)
|
0.4086
(87.5)
|
0.4471
(61.0)
|
0.4011
(87.8)
|
| Chris Taylor | 0.4961 |
0.3631
(64.6)
|
0.3587
(71.2)
|
0.3572
(67.9)
|
0.3689
(61.5)
|
| Aaron Judge | 0.6273 |
0.4596
(100.6)
|
0.3921
(151.3)
|
0.4458
(109.9)
|
0.4732
(91.6)
|
| Justin Smoak | 0.5286 |
0.4118
(62.1)
|
0.4106
(67.4)
|
0.4066
(65.3)
|
0.4169
(59.1)
|
| José Ramírez | 0.5829 |
0.4198
(92.7)
|
0.4095
(104.0)
|
0.4203
(92.3)
|
0.4194
(93.3)
|
| Cody Bellinger | 0.5813 |
0.4332
(70.5)
|
0.4341
(74.0)
|
0.4140
(81.0)
|
0.4524
(60.2)
|
| Charlie Blackmon | 0.6009 |
0.4807
(73.1)
|
0.4802
(78.8)
|
0.4595
(88.5)
|
0.5017
(58.2)
|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.3987 |
0.5303
(79.8)
|
0.5246
(73.0)
|
0.5402
(85.1)
|
0.5205
(74.5)
|
| José Bautista | 0.3663 |
0.4920
(99.5)
|
0.4871
(91.2)
|
0.4852
(94.9)
|
0.4988
(103.9)
|
| J.D. Martinez | 0.6898 |
0.5049
(81.0)
|
0.5169
(78.6)
|
0.4863
(90.1)
|
0.5235
(72.1)
|
Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rougned Odor | 0.4908 | 0.3970 | 73.7 |
| 2 | Mark Trumbo | 0.4924 | 0.3971 | 69.1 |
| 3 | Albert Pujols | 0.4638 | 0.3862 | 61.6 |
| 4 | Carlos González | 0.5169 | 0.4234 | 60.2 |
| 5 | Paul DeJong | 0.3814 | 0.5324 | 58.3 |
| 6 | Alex Gordon | 0.4010 | 0.3151 | 56.9 |
| 7 | Marwin Gonzalez | 0.4000 | 0.5297 | 56.8 |
| 8 | Marcell Ozuna | 0.4466 | 0.5481 | 55.8 |
| 9 | Scooter Gennett | 0.4012 | 0.5315 | 55.1 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5146 | 0.6315 | 72.5 |
| 2 | Joey Gallo | 0.3894 | 0.5367 | 71.9 |
| 3 | Marcell Ozuna | 0.4319 | 0.5481 | 70.7 |
| 4 | Dansby Swanson | 0.4229 | 0.3238 | 61.3 |
| 5 | Logan Morrison | 0.4020 | 0.5156 | 61.0 |
| 6 | Avisaíl García | 0.3850 | 0.5058 | 61.0 |
| 7 | Matt Olson | 0.3776 | 0.6508 | 56.4 |
| 8 | Anthony Rendon | 0.4291 | 0.5335 | 55.8 |
| 9 | Aaron Altherr | 0.3695 | 0.5161 | 55.4 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rougned Odor | 0.4858 | 0.3970 | 70.4 |
| 2 | Mark Trumbo | 0.4935 | 0.3971 | 69.8 |
| 3 | Albert Pujols | 0.4725 | 0.3862 | 67.3 |
| 4 | Paul DeJong | 0.3679 | 0.5324 | 64.3 |
| 5 | Scooter Gennett | 0.3856 | 0.5315 | 62.8 |
| 6 | Marwin Gonzalez | 0.3916 | 0.5297 | 61.1 |
| 7 | Alex Gordon | 0.4016 | 0.3151 | 57.3 |
| 8 | Carlos González | 0.5106 | 0.4234 | 56.9 |
| 9 | Matt Olson | 0.3716 | 0.6508 | 56.1 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rougned Odor | 0.4958 | 0.3970 | 76.7 |
| 2 | Mark Trumbo | 0.4912 | 0.3971 | 68.2 |
| 3 | Carlos González | 0.5231 | 0.4234 | 63.4 |
| 4 | Marcell Ozuna | 0.4378 | 0.5481 | 62.0 |
| 5 | Logan Forsythe | 0.4417 | 0.3269 | 58.7 |
| 6 | Logan Morrison | 0.3995 | 0.5156 | 58.4 |
| 7 | Alex Gordon | 0.4004 | 0.3151 | 56.4 |
| 8 | Albert Pujols | 0.4551 | 0.3862 | 55.9 |
| 9 | Chris Davis | 0.5087 | 0.4232 | 54.7 |
Most Unique Misses for Slugging Percentage
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Judge | 0.3921 | 0.4596 | 0.6273 | 151.3 | 100.6 | 50.7 |
| 2 | Eric Thames | 0.4341 | 0.5026 | 0.5181 | 39.6 | 2.1 | 37.5 |
| 3 | Joey Gallo | 0.3894 | 0.4503 | 0.5367 | 71.9 | 35.7 | 36.2 |
| 4 | Adam Engel | 0.4341 | 0.3246 | 0.2824 | 55.0 | 20.7 | 34.4 |
| 5 | Yuli Gurriel | 0.3992 | 0.4449 | 0.4858 | 42.0 | 12.2 | 29.9 |
| 6 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5146 | 0.5458 | 0.6315 | 72.5 | 45.9 | 26.6 |
| 7 | Mark Reynolds | 0.4198 | 0.4568 | 0.4865 | 32.4 | 6.1 | 26.3 |
| 8 | Daniel Robertson | 0.4341 | 0.3334 | 0.3257 | 30.6 | 6.9 | 23.7 |
| 9 | JT Riddle | 0.4341 | 0.3321 | 0.3553 | 22.5 | 0.9 | 21.5 |
| 10 | Allen Córdoba | 0.4341 | 0.3348 | 0.2970 | 33.9 | 13.0 | 20.9 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Blackmon | 0.4595 | 0.4807 | 0.6009 | 88.5 | 73.1 | 15.3 |
| 2 | Brian Dozier | 0.4494 | 0.4674 | 0.4976 | 20.3 | 7.6 | 12.7 |
| 3 | Cody Bellinger | 0.4140 | 0.4332 | 0.5813 | 81.0 | 70.5 | 10.5 |
| 4 | Guillermo Heredia | 0.3623 | 0.3385 | 0.3368 | 19.2 | 9.0 | 10.2 |
| 5 | Aaron Judge | 0.4458 | 0.4596 | 0.6273 | 109.9 | 100.6 | 9.3 |
| 6 | Nolan Arenado | 0.5403 | 0.5538 | 0.5858 | 17.7 | 8.6 | 9.1 |
| 7 | J.D. Martinez | 0.4863 | 0.5049 | 0.6898 | 90.1 | 81.0 | 9.1 |
| 8 | Jose Iglesias | 0.3761 | 0.3591 | 0.3693 | 12.8 | 4.4 | 8.4 |
| 9 | Francisco Lindor | 0.4301 | 0.4418 | 0.5054 | 40.4 | 32.0 | 8.4 |
| 10 | Victor Martinez | 0.4506 | 0.4325 | 0.3724 | 42.4 | 34.5 | 7.9 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.4011 | 0.4241 | 0.5725 | 87.8 | 74.4 | 13.5 |
| 2 | Mike Moustakas | 0.4277 | 0.4476 | 0.5207 | 44.3 | 32.2 | 12.1 |
| 3 | David Peralta | 0.4813 | 0.4612 | 0.4438 | 32.6 | 21.2 | 11.4 |
| 4 | Martín Maldonado | 0.3105 | 0.3314 | 0.3683 | 18.3 | 8.3 | 10.0 |
| 5 | Edwin Encarnación | 0.5152 | 0.5000 | 0.5036 | 20.4 | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| 6 | Adam Duvall | 0.4802 | 0.4649 | 0.4804 | 12.1 | 2.5 | 9.6 |
| 7 | Trevor Story | 0.5117 | 0.4947 | 0.4573 | 40.8 | 31.5 | 9.2 |
| 8 | Cory Spangenberg | 0.4060 | 0.3877 | 0.4009 | 11.7 | 3.0 | 8.7 |
| 9 | Chris Davis | 0.5087 | 0.4921 | 0.4232 | 54.7 | 46.2 | 8.5 |
| 10 | Byron Buxton | 0.4435 | 0.4269 | 0.4134 | 25.1 | 16.8 | 8.3 |
Pitching Projection Accuracy
Batters Faced (BF)
Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | 167 |
851
(684.2)
|
636
(469.0)
|
871
(704.4)
|
831
(664.0)
|
| Noah Syndergaard | 124 |
790
(665.9)
|
696
(572.0)
|
809
(684.8)
|
771
(647.0)
|
| Brandon Finnegan | 59 |
705
(646.2)
|
616
(557.0)
|
752
(693.5)
|
658
(599.0)
|
| Shelby Miller | 99 |
664
(564.6)
|
568
(469.0)
|
593
(494.2)
|
734
(635.0)
|
Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hisashi Iwakuma | 695 | 128 | 566.5 |
| 2 | Wei-Yin Chen | 666 | 132 | 534.0 |
| 3 | Taylor Jungmann | 515 | 6 | 509.1 |
| 4 | Matt Wisler | 638 | 153 | 484.8 |
| 5 | Steven Wright | 585 | 114 | 471.2 |
| 6 | Garrett Richards | 577 | 108 | 469.0 |
| 7 | Jered Weaver | 658 | 191 | 467.4 |
| 8 | Clay Buchholz | 499 | 40 | 459.2 |
| 9 | Collin McHugh | 726 | 271 | 455.1 |
| 10 | Félix Hernández | 815 | 368 | 446.8 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Freeland | 100 | 688 | 588.0 |
| 2 | Hisashi Iwakuma | 698 | 128 | 570.0 |
| 3 | Clayton Richard | 302 | 858 | 556.0 |
| 4 | Jordan Montgomery | 100 | 649 | 549.0 |
| 5 | Clay Buchholz | 549 | 40 | 509.0 |
| 6 | Chad Bettis | 701 | 200 | 501.0 |
| 7 | Jered Weaver | 688 | 191 | 497.0 |
| 8 | Matt Wisler | 650 | 153 | 497.0 |
| 9 | David Price | 803 | 317 | 486.0 |
| 10 | Nick Pivetta | 100 | 584 | 484.0 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hisashi Iwakuma | 758 | 128 | 630.0 |
| 2 | Wei-Yin Chen | 711 | 132 | 579.0 |
| 3 | Garrett Richards | 665 | 108 | 557.0 |
| 4 | Mike Pelfrey | 4 | 546 | 541.6 |
| 5 | Junior Guerra | 835 | 314 | 520.5 |
| 6 | Steven Wright | 632 | 114 | 518.5 |
| 7 | Félix Hernández | 865 | 368 | 496.7 |
| 8 | Matt Shoemaker | 809 | 326 | 483.0 |
| 9 | Dinelson Lamet | 4 | 485 | 480.6 |
| 10 | Héctor Santiago | 782 | 311 | 471.2 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taylor Jungmann | 648 | 6 | 642.0 |
| 2 | Roenis Elías | 627 | 2 | 625.0 |
| 3 | Max Povse | 644 | 21 | 623.0 |
| 4 | Chris Heston | 654 | 38 | 616.0 |
| 5 | Jason Wheeler | 634 | 18 | 616.0 |
| 6 | Aaron Blair | 629 | 19 | 610.0 |
| 7 | David Price | 914 | 317 | 597.0 |
| 8 | Josh Lindblom | 647 | 51 | 596.0 |
| 9 | Jorge López | 604 | 10 | 594.0 |
| 10 | Matt Wisler | 744 | 153 | 591.0 |
Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevor Williams | 160 | 579 | 642 | 482.0 | 63.0 | 419.0 |
| 2 | Kyle Freeland | 100 | 504 | 688 | 588.0 | 184.5 | 403.5 |
| 3 | Germán Márquez | 239 | 629 | 701 | 462.0 | 71.7 | 390.3 |
| 4 | Chad Bettis | 701 | 375 | 200 | 501.0 | 174.7 | 326.3 |
| 5 | Ty Blach | 214 | 514 | 692 | 478.0 | 178.0 | 300.0 |
| 6 | Jordan Montgomery | 100 | 383 | 649 | 549.0 | 265.8 | 283.2 |
| 7 | Jeremy Guthrie | 297 | 4 | 12 | 285.0 | 7.6 | 277.4 |
| 8 | Ben Lively | 100 | 364 | 372 | 272.0 | 8.3 | 263.7 |
| 9 | Nick Pivetta | 100 | 364 | 584 | 484.0 | 220.5 | 263.5 |
| 10 | Jakob Junis | 100 | 357 | 422 | 322.0 | 65.4 | 256.6 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Gossett | 4 | 310 | 414 | 409.6 | 104.3 | 305.3 |
| 2 | Dinelson Lamet | 4 | 308 | 485 | 480.6 | 176.8 | 303.8 |
| 3 | Austin Pruitt | 39 | 330 | 371 | 331.8 | 40.9 | 290.9 |
| 4 | Sam Gaviglio | 4 | 291 | 313 | 308.6 | 22.3 | 286.3 |
| 5 | Sean Newcomb | 4 | 291 | 456 | 451.5 | 165.3 | 286.3 |
| 6 | Jakob Junis | 82 | 357 | 422 | 339.8 | 65.4 | 274.4 |
| 7 | Nick Martinez | 81 | 355 | 478 | 397.1 | 123.1 | 274.1 |
| 8 | Sal Romano | 80 | 347 | 384 | 303.6 | 36.8 | 266.8 |
| 9 | Mark Leiter Jr. | 4 | 268 | 395 | 390.6 | 126.8 | 263.8 |
| 10 | Ben Lively | 103 | 364 | 372 | 268.6 | 8.3 | 260.3 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chad Bettis | 745 | 375 | 200 | 545.0 | 174.7 | 370.3 |
| 2 | Gabriel Ynoa | 683 | 344 | 147 | 536.0 | 196.7 | 339.3 |
| 3 | Andrew Moore | 656 | 330 | 243 | 413.0 | 87.1 | 325.9 |
| 4 | Josh Lindblom | 647 | 326 | 51 | 596.0 | 274.7 | 321.3 |
| 5 | Myles Jaye | 642 | 323 | 71 | 571.0 | 252.2 | 318.8 |
| 6 | Chris Volstad | 638 | 321 | 76 | 562.0 | 245.2 | 316.8 |
| 7 | Jason Wheeler | 634 | 319 | 18 | 616.0 | 301.2 | 314.8 |
| 8 | David Holmberg | 630 | 317 | 272 | 358.0 | 45.2 | 312.8 |
| 9 | Felix Jorge | 625 | 315 | 36 | 589.0 | 278.7 | 310.3 |
| 10 | Tyler Mahle | 624 | 314 | 92 | 532.0 | 222.2 | 309.8 |
wOBA
Everybody Missed for wOBA
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Cueto | 0.3439 |
0.2659
(31.4)
|
0.2818
(33.0)
|
0.2747
(27.3)
|
0.2571
(35.5)
|
| Bartolo Colon | 0.3776 |
0.2926
(35.9)
|
0.3088
(37.3)
|
0.2949
(36.0)
|
0.2904
(35.8)
|
| Brad Peacock | 0.2739 |
0.3056
(33.5)
|
0.3209
(31.8)
|
0.3036
(31.0)
|
0.3076
(35.9)
|
| Rick Porcello | 0.3476 |
0.2813
(32.5)
|
0.2980
(34.0)
|
0.2874
(29.3)
|
0.2752
(35.8)
|
| Chase Anderson | 0.2793 |
0.3076
(32.9)
|
0.3284
(34.3)
|
0.3094
(32.6)
|
0.3057
(33.2)
|
| Corey Kluber | 0.2398 |
0.2631
(41.0)
|
0.2807
(40.4)
|
0.2697
(44.3)
|
0.2565
(37.7)
|
| Luis Severino | 0.2618 |
0.2918
(46.6)
|
0.3230
(56.6)
|
0.2954
(47.5)
|
0.2882
(45.6)
|
| Jordan Zimmermann | 0.3717 |
0.2985
(31.1)
|
0.3089
(36.8)
|
0.3050
(28.2)
|
0.2920
(34.0)
|
| Chad Green | 0.2016 |
0.3026
(33.0)
|
0.3257
(34.2)
|
0.2984
(31.4)
|
0.3068
(34.7)
|
| Chris Tillman | 0.4126 |
0.3029
(35.5)
|
0.3142
(38.7)
|
0.3129
(32.2)
|
0.2930
(38.9)
|
Individual Misses for wOBA
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ervin Santana | 0.3004 | 0.2902 | 34.4 |
| 2 | Matt Moore | 0.2803 | 0.3523 | 33.5 |
| 3 | Matt Harvey | 0.2733 | 0.3771 | 32.0 |
| 4 | Jordan Montgomery | 0.3117 | 0.2945 | 30.4 |
| 5 | Andrew Cashner | 0.3169 | 0.3036 | 30.2 |
| 6 | Tyler Glasnow | 0.2861 | 0.4145 | 30.2 |
| 7 | Parker Bridwell | 0.3383 | 0.3086 | 29.2 |
| 8 | Ricky Nolasco | 0.2893 | 0.3556 | 28.9 |
| 9 | Zack Godley | 0.3000 | 0.2839 | 28.6 |
| 10 | Derek Holland | 0.3129 | 0.3873 | 28.0 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Ray | 0.3248 | 0.2822 | 35.8 |
| 2 | José Berríos | 0.3452 | 0.3009 | 34.2 |
| 3 | Derek Holland | 0.3230 | 0.3873 | 33.2 |
| 4 | Zack Godley | 0.3238 | 0.2839 | 32.0 |
| 5 | Gio Gonzalez | 0.3081 | 0.2811 | 31.5 |
| 6 | James Paxton | 0.3060 | 0.2633 | 29.7 |
| 7 | Stephen Strasburg | 0.2853 | 0.2547 | 29.3 |
| 8 | Chris Sale | 0.2825 | 0.2595 | 29.1 |
| 9 | Ubaldo Jiménez | 0.3223 | 0.3780 | 28.9 |
| 10 | Travis Wood | 0.3045 | 0.3813 | 28.6 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Moore | 0.2791 | 0.3523 | 36.4 |
| 2 | Ervin Santana | 0.3047 | 0.2902 | 36.0 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 0.2712 | 0.2595 | 33.0 |
| 4 | Andrew Cashner | 0.3230 | 0.3036 | 32.8 |
| 5 | Jimmy Nelson | 0.3143 | 0.2994 | 30.6 |
| 6 | Matt Harvey | 0.2798 | 0.3771 | 30.2 |
| 7 | Tyler Glasnow | 0.2887 | 0.4145 | 30.1 |
| 8 | Jordan Montgomery | 0.3134 | 0.2945 | 29.9 |
| 9 | Max Scherzer | 0.2558 | 0.2472 | 27.9 |
| 10 | Parker Bridwell | 0.3374 | 0.3086 | 27.5 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Harvey | 0.2667 | 0.3771 | 33.8 |
| 2 | Ervin Santana | 0.2961 | 0.2902 | 32.7 |
| 3 | Ricky Nolasco | 0.2839 | 0.3556 | 31.3 |
| 4 | Jordan Montgomery | 0.3100 | 0.2945 | 30.8 |
| 5 | Matt Moore | 0.2815 | 0.3523 | 30.8 |
| 6 | Parker Bridwell | 0.3391 | 0.3086 | 30.7 |
| 7 | Tyler Glasnow | 0.2834 | 0.4145 | 30.3 |
| 8 | Zack Godley | 0.3000 | 0.2839 | 30.1 |
| 9 | Travis Wood | 0.2804 | 0.3813 | 30.0 |
| 10 | James Paxton | 0.2847 | 0.2633 | 29.4 |
Most Unique Misses for wOBA
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Berríos | 0.3452 | 0.3001 | 0.3009 | 34.2 | 17.7 | 16.5 |
| 2 | Marco Estrada | 0.2875 | 0.2892 | 0.3325 | 27.3 | 11.1 | 16.2 |
| 3 | Jake Arrieta | 0.2581 | 0.2625 | 0.3074 | 26.9 | 10.8 | 16.1 |
| 4 | Robbie Ray | 0.3248 | 0.2828 | 0.2822 | 35.8 | 20.1 | 15.7 |
| 5 | José Ureña | 0.3297 | 0.2958 | 0.3158 | 18.1 | 6.9 | 11.2 |
| 6 | Dylan Covey | 0.3210 | 0.3376 | 0.4072 | 23.2 | 12.4 | 10.8 |
| 7 | Luis Severino | 0.3230 | 0.2918 | 0.2618 | 56.6 | 46.6 | 10.0 |
| 8 | Jason Hammel | 0.3049 | 0.2983 | 0.3302 | 11.3 | 1.9 | 9.5 |
| 9 | Masahiro Tanaka | 0.2856 | 0.2796 | 0.3256 | 21.6 | 12.3 | 9.3 |
| 10 | Bronson Arroyo | 0.3146 | 0.3246 | 0.4120 | 27.8 | 18.6 | 9.1 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Bundy | 0.3089 | 0.2966 | 0.3082 | 19.4 | 12.6 | 6.8 |
| 2 | Zach Davies | 0.3019 | 0.2923 | 0.3220 | 5.8 | 0.1 | 5.7 |
| 3 | Asher Wojciechowski | 0.2947 | 0.3123 | 0.3675 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 5.6 |
| 4 | Chris Sale | 0.2712 | 0.2622 | 0.2595 | 33.0 | 27.5 | 5.5 |
| 5 | Kyle Hendricks | 0.2812 | 0.2697 | 0.2885 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 5.2 |
| 6 | Tanner Roark | 0.2990 | 0.2904 | 0.3142 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| 7 | Luis Perdomo | 0.3051 | 0.3104 | 0.3394 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 4.7 |
| 8 | Jacob deGrom | 0.2755 | 0.2675 | 0.2925 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 4.6 |
| 9 | Jeff Hoffman | 0.2991 | 0.3061 | 0.3494 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 4.2 |
| 10 | Mike Pelfrey | 0.3151 | 0.3197 | 0.3644 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marco Estrada | 0.2715 | 0.2892 | 0.3325 | 23.5 | 11.1 | 12.4 |
| 2 | Jake Arrieta | 0.2488 | 0.2625 | 0.3074 | 18.9 | 10.8 | 8.1 |
| 3 | Nick Goody | 0.3210 | 0.2926 | 0.2765 | 16.9 | 10.1 | 6.8 |
| 4 | Travis Wood | 0.2804 | 0.2980 | 0.3813 | 30.0 | 23.4 | 6.6 |
| 5 | Zach Davies | 0.2827 | 0.2923 | 0.3220 | 6.0 | 0.1 | 5.9 |
| 6 | John Brebbia | 0.3210 | 0.2959 | 0.2731 | 16.7 | 10.9 | 5.7 |
| 7 | Luis Perdomo | 0.3157 | 0.3104 | 0.3394 | 5.9 | 0.4 | 5.5 |
| 8 | Sean Manaea | 0.2780 | 0.2880 | 0.3286 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 5.3 |
| 9 | Kyle Freeland | 0.3346 | 0.3294 | 0.3350 | 21.7 | 16.5 | 5.2 |
| 10 | Robert Stephenson | 0.3258 | 0.3151 | 0.3418 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 5.0 |
Strikeout Rate
Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Knebel | 0.4078 |
0.2843
(35.2)
|
0.2338
(52.3)
|
0.2789
(37.0)
|
0.2898
(33.5)
|
| Brad Peacock | 0.2949 |
0.2127
(39.6)
|
0.2086
(44.5)
|
0.2193
(36.3)
|
0.2061
(43.2)
|
| Jimmy Nelson | 0.2734 |
0.1869
(56.0)
|
0.1880
(58.6)
|
0.1851
(57.7)
|
0.1887
(54.6)
|
| Jeremy Hellickson | 0.1381 |
0.1941
(45.6)
|
0.1989
(45.5)
|
0.1921
(43.8)
|
0.1961
(47.0)
|
| Zach Davies | 0.1518 |
0.1987
(46.2)
|
0.1997
(43.1)
|
0.1972
(44.5)
|
0.2003
(47.5)
|
| Craig Kimbrel | 0.4961 |
0.3344
(38.6)
|
0.2983
(49.0)
|
0.3240
(41.4)
|
0.3448
(36.0)
|
| Luis Severino | 0.2937 |
0.2185
(51.4)
|
0.2117
(60.5)
|
0.2166
(53.3)
|
0.2204
(49.9)
|
| Corey Kluber | 0.3411 |
0.2595
(55.9)
|
0.2595
(59.6)
|
0.2540
(60.6)
|
0.2650
(51.5)
|
| Chris Sale | 0.3619 |
0.2629
(76.1)
|
0.2695
(74.6)
|
0.2515
(86.3)
|
0.2743
(66.4)
|
| Chad Green | 0.4071 |
0.2121
(46.9)
|
0.2258
(44.7)
|
0.2165
(45.9)
|
0.2077
(48.0)
|
| Charlie Morton | 0.2642 |
0.1914
(39.0)
|
0.1953
(39.5)
|
0.1976
(35.5)
|
0.1852
(42.8)
|
Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack Greinke | 0.2080 | 0.2684 | 40.7 |
| 2 | Ty Blach | 0.1544 | 0.1055 | 40.5 |
| 3 | Andrew Cashner | 0.1628 | 0.1222 | 35.4 |
| 4 | Luis Castillo | 0.1650 | 0.2730 | 35.3 |
| 5 | Jacob deGrom | 0.2371 | 0.2890 | 35.0 |
| 6 | Jose Quintana | 0.2092 | 0.2620 | 34.1 |
| 7 | Dinelson Lamet | 0.2080 | 0.2866 | 33.5 |
| 8 | Matt Moore | 0.2196 | 0.1873 | 33.1 |
| 9 | Zack Godley | 0.2025 | 0.2632 | 32.0 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ty Blach | 0.2009 | 0.1055 | 69.4 |
| 2 | Andrew Cashner | 0.1984 | 0.1222 | 57.0 |
| 3 | Robbie Ray | 0.2447 | 0.3278 | 52.1 |
| 4 | Kyle Freeland | 0.2166 | 0.1555 | 45.3 |
| 5 | Cole Hamels | 0.2326 | 0.1710 | 40.8 |
| 6 | Tommy Kahnle | 0.2143 | 0.3750 | 39.9 |
| 7 | Max Scherzer | 0.2877 | 0.3436 | 39.8 |
| 8 | Zack Godley | 0.1977 | 0.2632 | 38.0 |
| 9 | Robert Gsellman | 0.2130 | 0.1494 | 37.6 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ty Blach | 0.1675 | 0.1055 | 49.2 |
| 2 | Zack Greinke | 0.2040 | 0.2684 | 44.4 |
| 3 | Robbie Ray | 0.2616 | 0.3278 | 38.0 |
| 4 | Matt Moore | 0.2264 | 0.1873 | 38.0 |
| 5 | Luis Castillo | 0.1587 | 0.2730 | 37.8 |
| 6 | Zack Godley | 0.1942 | 0.2632 | 37.6 |
| 7 | Jacob deGrom | 0.2356 | 0.2890 | 36.7 |
| 8 | Jose Quintana | 0.2103 | 0.2620 | 33.7 |
| 9 | Masahiro Tanaka | 0.2043 | 0.2580 | 33.6 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Cashner | 0.1773 | 0.1222 | 45.6 |
| 2 | Zack Greinke | 0.2119 | 0.2684 | 37.5 |
| 3 | Anthony Swarzak | 0.1744 | 0.3003 | 35.2 |
| 4 | Jose Quintana | 0.2082 | 0.2620 | 34.9 |
| 5 | Jacob deGrom | 0.2386 | 0.2890 | 33.7 |
| 6 | Dinelson Lamet | 0.2075 | 0.2866 | 33.7 |
| 7 | Max Scherzer | 0.2908 | 0.3436 | 33.6 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | 0.2080 | 0.2655 | 33.2 |
| 9 | Luis Castillo | 0.1714 | 0.2730 | 33.0 |
Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Freeland | 0.2166 | 0.1367 | 0.1555 | 45.3 | 6.3 | 39.0 |
| 2 | Ty Blach | 0.2009 | 0.1544 | 0.1055 | 69.4 | 40.5 | 28.9 |
| 3 | Dylan Covey | 0.2166 | 0.1308 | 0.1327 | 27.4 | 2.4 | 25.0 |
| 4 | Andrew Cashner | 0.1984 | 0.1628 | 0.1222 | 57.0 | 35.4 | 21.6 |
| 5 | Richard Bleier | 0.1961 | 0.1099 | 0.0981 | 27.2 | 5.7 | 21.6 |
| 6 | Robbie Ray | 0.2447 | 0.2706 | 0.3278 | 52.1 | 31.7 | 20.4 |
| 7 | Parker Bridwell | 0.2087 | 0.1636 | 0.1484 | 32.0 | 12.2 | 19.8 |
| 8 | Daniel Gossett | 0.2166 | 0.1637 | 0.1739 | 19.7 | 0.2 | 19.4 |
| 9 | Sam Gaviglio | 0.2166 | 0.1521 | 0.1565 | 20.3 | 1.6 | 18.7 |
| 10 | Jason Hammel | 0.2183 | 0.1903 | 0.1803 | 34.4 | 15.7 | 18.7 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R.A. Dickey | 0.1857 | 0.1714 | 0.1669 | 22.7 | 11.5 | 11.2 |
| 2 | José Ureña | 0.1811 | 0.1662 | 0.1561 | 24.7 | 14.3 | 10.4 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 0.2515 | 0.2629 | 0.3619 | 86.3 | 76.1 | 10.2 |
| 4 | Brandon McCarthy | 0.2190 | 0.1920 | 0.1875 | 15.6 | 5.4 | 10.2 |
| 5 | Ty Blach | 0.1675 | 0.1544 | 0.1055 | 49.2 | 40.5 | 8.7 |
| 6 | Carlos Carrasco | 0.2465 | 0.2565 | 0.2832 | 22.1 | 13.7 | 8.4 |
| 7 | Brad Hand | 0.2413 | 0.2658 | 0.3344 | 26.1 | 18.3 | 7.8 |
| 8 | César Valdez | 0.2166 | 0.1603 | 0.1500 | 10.6 | 2.8 | 7.8 |
| 9 | Zack Wheeler | 0.2374 | 0.2169 | 0.2098 | 14.1 | 6.4 | 7.7 |
| 10 | Jhoulys Chacín | 0.2008 | 0.1908 | 0.2000 | 7.5 | 0.3 | 7.2 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erasmo Ramírez | 0.1379 | 0.1684 | 0.2022 | 29.4 | 13.1 | 16.4 |
| 2 | Andrew Cashner | 0.1773 | 0.1628 | 0.1222 | 45.6 | 35.4 | 10.2 |
| 3 | Marco Estrada | 0.1704 | 0.1830 | 0.2184 | 30.8 | 20.8 | 10.1 |
| 4 | Travis Wood | 0.2061 | 0.1837 | 0.1491 | 29.1 | 19.3 | 9.8 |
| 5 | Edwin Díaz | 0.3727 | 0.3378 | 0.3201 | 17.3 | 7.6 | 9.7 |
| 6 | Alex Wood | 0.1955 | 0.2111 | 0.2459 | 25.0 | 15.5 | 9.5 |
| 7 | Chris Rowley | 0.2166 | 0.1182 | 0.1236 | 9.1 | 0.4 | 8.8 |
| 8 | David Phelps | 0.1877 | 0.2243 | 0.2605 | 15.0 | 6.3 | 8.7 |
| 9 | Dylan Bundy | 0.2278 | 0.2162 | 0.2178 | 13.8 | 5.6 | 8.2 |
| 10 | Jameson Taillon | 0.1850 | 0.1987 | 0.2129 | 10.7 | 2.7 | 8.0 |
Walk Rate
Everybody Missed for Walk Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Ottavino | 0.1605 |
0.0845
(16.8)
|
0.0741
(19.3)
|
0.0821
(17.8)
|
0.0870
(15.8)
|
| Derek Holland | 0.1198 |
0.0780
(22.0)
|
0.0752
(23.4)
|
0.0798
(21.8)
|
0.0761
(22.1)
|
| Jimmy Nelson | 0.0659 |
0.0877
(20.7)
|
0.0926
(24.7)
|
0.0910
(22.0)
|
0.0844
(19.6)
|
| Chad Kuhl | 0.1059 |
0.0656
(22.9)
|
0.0747
(16.3)
|
0.0681
(22.2)
|
0.0631
(23.4)
|
| Jeff Samardzija | 0.0378 |
0.0579
(22.7)
|
0.0625
(27.0)
|
0.0604
(23.5)
|
0.0555
(22.1)
|
| Corey Kluber | 0.0463 |
0.0588
(14.8)
|
0.0629
(18.5)
|
0.0608
(15.3)
|
0.0567
(14.6)
|
| Dellin Betances | 0.1686 |
0.0961
(17.2)
|
0.0912
(18.3)
|
0.0957
(17.7)
|
0.0965
(16.6)
|
| Wade Miley | 0.1277 |
0.0756
(33.1)
|
0.0753
(33.0)
|
0.0760
(33.9)
|
0.0751
(32.2)
|
| Mike Pelfrey | 0.1136 |
0.0747
(17.6)
|
0.0786
(15.1)
|
0.0762
(17.6)
|
0.0733
(17.4)
|
Individual Misses for Walk Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Bridwell | 0.1115 | 0.0610 | 28.1 |
| 2 | Tommy Kahnle | 0.1349 | 0.0664 | 19.2 |
| 3 | Alex Cobb | 0.0756 | 0.0593 | 17.0 |
| 4 | José Torres | 0.1074 | 0.0563 | 16.4 |
| 5 | Edinson Volquez | 0.0878 | 0.1335 | 15.5 |
| 6 | Matt Harvey | 0.0668 | 0.1090 | 15.3 |
| 7 | José Alvarado | 0.1904 | 0.0732 | 15.2 |
| 8 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 0.1002 | 0.0781 | 14.7 |
| 9 | Tyler Chatwood | 0.0923 | 0.1220 | 14.6 |
| 10 | Craig Kimbrel | 0.1051 | 0.0551 | 14.4 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Leclerc | 0.0979 | 0.2000 | 19.0 |
| 2 | Luis Severino | 0.0816 | 0.0651 | 18.5 |
| 3 | Clayton Richard | 0.0828 | 0.0688 | 18.2 |
| 4 | Ty Blach | 0.0794 | 0.0621 | 16.9 |
| 5 | Matt Harvey | 0.0629 | 0.1090 | 16.8 |
| 6 | Iván Nova | 0.0597 | 0.0459 | 16.5 |
| 7 | Robert Stephenson | 0.0883 | 0.1384 | 16.4 |
| 8 | José Berríos | 0.0971 | 0.0779 | 16.2 |
| 9 | Nick Martinez | 0.0852 | 0.0586 | 16.1 |
| 10 | Edinson Volquez | 0.0859 | 0.1335 | 16.0 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Bridwell | 0.1069 | 0.0610 | 25.1 |
| 2 | Matt Harvey | 0.0585 | 0.1090 | 19.6 |
| 3 | Tommy Kahnle | 0.1296 | 0.0664 | 17.5 |
| 4 | Edinson Volquez | 0.0869 | 0.1335 | 16.5 |
| 5 | José Torres | 0.1081 | 0.0563 | 16.2 |
| 6 | Tyler Chatwood | 0.0914 | 0.1220 | 16.1 |
| 7 | Luis Severino | 0.0800 | 0.0651 | 15.7 |
| 8 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 0.1034 | 0.0781 | 15.6 |
| 9 | Jake Odorizzi | 0.0713 | 0.1010 | 14.8 |
| 10 | Julio Teheran | 0.0660 | 0.0887 | 14.2 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Bridwell | 0.1161 | 0.0610 | 31.3 |
| 2 | Tommy Kahnle | 0.1402 | 0.0664 | 21.0 |
| 3 | Alex Cobb | 0.0785 | 0.0593 | 20.5 |
| 4 | José Alvarado | 0.2031 | 0.0732 | 17.0 |
| 5 | José Torres | 0.1068 | 0.0563 | 16.7 |
| 6 | Craig Kimbrel | 0.1078 | 0.0551 | 15.5 |
| 7 | Lucas Sims | 0.1419 | 0.0902 | 15.3 |
| 8 | Jerad Eickhoff | 0.0575 | 0.0920 | 15.0 |
| 9 | Dan Straily | 0.0891 | 0.0780 | 15.0 |
| 10 | Gregory Infante | 0.1445 | 0.0881 | 14.7 |
Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Stephenson | 0.0883 | 0.1312 | 0.1384 | 16.4 | 0.2 | 16.2 |
| 2 | Ty Blach | 0.0794 | 0.0618 | 0.0621 | 16.9 | 4.4 | 12.6 |
| 3 | José Berríos | 0.0971 | 0.0778 | 0.0779 | 16.2 | 4.0 | 12.2 |
| 4 | Ariel Hernández | 0.0854 | 0.1887 | 0.2037 | 12.0 | 0.9 | 11.1 |
| 5 | Tyler Glasnow | 0.0876 | 0.1240 | 0.1443 | 15.1 | 4.2 | 10.9 |
| 6 | Carl Edwards Jr. | 0.0874 | 0.1295 | 0.1450 | 13.2 | 2.3 | 10.9 |
| 7 | Jakob Junis | 0.0854 | 0.0612 | 0.0592 | 14.1 | 3.6 | 10.4 |
| 8 | Austin Pruitt | 0.0854 | 0.0578 | 0.0593 | 12.3 | 1.9 | 10.4 |
| 9 | José Leclerc | 0.0979 | 0.1489 | 0.2000 | 19.0 | 8.9 | 10.1 |
| 10 | Amir Garrett | 0.0854 | 0.1156 | 0.1246 | 10.3 | 0.8 | 9.5 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Stephenson | 0.1156 | 0.1312 | 0.1384 | 6.8 | 0.2 | 6.6 |
| 2 | José Berríos | 0.0881 | 0.0778 | 0.0779 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 5.4 |
| 3 | Matt Harvey | 0.0585 | 0.0668 | 0.1090 | 19.6 | 15.3 | 4.2 |
| 4 | Max Scherzer | 0.0577 | 0.0613 | 0.0705 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
| 5 | Lance Lynn | 0.0823 | 0.0853 | 0.1005 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 3.5 |
| 6 | Germán Márquez | 0.0740 | 0.0678 | 0.0699 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| 7 | Dylan Bundy | 0.0879 | 0.0819 | 0.0731 | 14.0 | 10.8 | 3.1 |
| 8 | Warwick Saupold | 0.0804 | 0.0898 | 0.1107 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| 9 | Sean Manaea | 0.0790 | 0.0732 | 0.0795 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 3.0 |
| 10 | Brad Peacock | 0.0906 | 0.0946 | 0.1044 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 3.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Stephenson | 0.1469 | 0.1312 | 0.1384 | 6.5 | 0.2 | 6.3 |
| 2 | Aaron Bummer | 0.0854 | 0.1476 | 0.1648 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 5.5 |
| 3 | Matt Moore | 0.0936 | 0.0892 | 0.0848 | 13.6 | 8.7 | 4.9 |
| 4 | Mike Minor | 0.0939 | 0.0813 | 0.0717 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 4.4 |
| 5 | Zack Godley | 0.0904 | 0.0857 | 0.0845 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 |
| 6 | Dan Straily | 0.0891 | 0.0860 | 0.0780 | 15.0 | 11.2 | 3.8 |
| 7 | Jhoulys Chacín | 0.0922 | 0.0891 | 0.0941 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 3.8 |
| 8 | Sean Newcomb | 0.1421 | 0.1358 | 0.1250 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 |
| 9 | Greg Holland | 0.1234 | 0.1095 | 0.1106 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 3.7 |
| 10 | Alex Cobb | 0.0785 | 0.0756 | 0.0593 | 20.5 | 17.0 | 3.5 |
Hit By Pitch Rate
Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lyons | 0.0318 |
0.0075
(5.3)
|
0.0080
(5.1)
|
0.0071
(5.2)
|
0.0078
(5.3)
|
| John Lackey | 0.0164 |
0.0078
(5.9)
|
0.0072
(6.2)
|
0.0076
(5.8)
|
0.0081
(6.1)
|
| Jhoulys Chacín | 0.0183 |
0.0075
(7.9)
|
0.0075
(7.7)
|
0.0078
(7.3)
|
0.0072
(8.5)
|
| José Berríos | 0.0211 |
0.0111
(5.9)
|
0.0121
(5.1)
|
0.0106
(5.9)
|
0.0115
(5.9)
|
| Mike Fiers | 0.0194 |
0.0089
(6.7)
|
0.0089
(6.5)
|
0.0087
(6.5)
|
0.0091
(6.9)
|
| Lance McCullers Jr. | 0.0215 |
0.0080
(6.7)
|
0.0061
(7.5)
|
0.0083
(6.3)
|
0.0076
(7.1)
|
| Jaime García | 0.0015 |
0.0089
(5.3)
|
0.0091
(5.7)
|
0.0087
(5.5)
|
0.0091
(5.1)
|
| Francis Martes | 0.0321 |
0.0099
(5.4)
|
0.0095
(5.4)
|
0.0083
(5.7)
|
0.0115
(5.1)
|
| Gerrit Cole | 0.0047 |
0.0112
(5.8)
|
0.0119
(6.7)
|
0.0106
(5.7)
|
0.0117
(6.0)
|
| Max Scherzer | 0.0141 |
0.0070
(5.2)
|
0.0064
(5.4)
|
0.0071
(4.7)
|
0.0070
(5.6)
|
| Dellin Betances | 0.0421 |
0.0074
(9.0)
|
0.0070
(9.0)
|
0.0083
(8.6)
|
0.0064
(9.3)
|
Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Montgomery | 0.0096 | 0.0015 | 5.5 |
| 2 | José Ureña | 0.0112 | 0.0193 | 5.5 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 0.0152 | 0.0094 | 5.3 |
| 4 | Drew Storen | 0.0185 | 0.0407 | 5.3 |
| 5 | Brad Hand | 0.0049 | 0.0225 | 5.3 |
| 6 | Ty Blach | 0.0084 | 0.0014 | 5.1 |
| 7 | Jose Quintana | 0.0060 | 0.0127 | 4.9 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | 0.0095 | 0.0029 | 4.9 |
| 9 | Cole Hamels | 0.0096 | 0.0179 | 4.8 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Martinez | 0.0165 | 0.0042 | 6.2 |
| 2 | Ty Blach | 0.0093 | 0.0014 | 6.0 |
| 3 | Drew Storen | 0.0168 | 0.0407 | 5.7 |
| 4 | Jordan Montgomery | 0.0095 | 0.0015 | 5.7 |
| 5 | Chris Sale | 0.0151 | 0.0094 | 5.5 |
| 6 | Dan Straily | 0.0125 | 0.0065 | 5.2 |
| 7 | Erasmo Ramírez | 0.0123 | 0.0037 | 5.1 |
| 8 | Brad Hand | 0.0056 | 0.0225 | 5.0 |
| 9 | Aaron Nola | 0.0092 | 0.0029 | 4.9 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Storen | 0.0119 | 0.0407 | 6.9 |
| 2 | José Ureña | 0.0103 | 0.0193 | 5.9 |
| 3 | Zack Greinke | 0.0059 | 0.0000 | 5.5 |
| 4 | Alec Asher | 0.0074 | 0.0264 | 4.8 |
| 5 | J.A. Happ | 0.0067 | 0.0000 | 4.7 |
| 6 | Clayton Kershaw | 0.0061 | 0.0000 | 4.7 |
| 7 | Ryan Tepera | 0.0095 | 0.0251 | 4.7 |
| 8 | Patrick Corbin | 0.0084 | 0.0036 | 4.7 |
| 9 | Aaron Nola | 0.0086 | 0.0029 | 4.6 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Montgomery | 0.0124 | 0.0015 | 7.1 |
| 2 | Chris Sale | 0.0170 | 0.0094 | 6.5 |
| 3 | Ty Blach | 0.0105 | 0.0014 | 6.3 |
| 4 | Brad Hand | 0.0029 | 0.0225 | 6.1 |
| 5 | Jose Quintana | 0.0050 | 0.0127 | 6.1 |
| 6 | Daniel Gossett | 0.0146 | 0.0000 | 6.1 |
| 7 | Sean Manaea | 0.0064 | 0.0145 | 5.6 |
| 8 | Carlos Carrasco | 0.0060 | 0.0125 | 5.2 |
| 9 | José Ureña | 0.0122 | 0.0193 | 5.2 |
Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Straily | 0.0125 | 0.0106 | 0.0065 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 2 | Nick Martinez | 0.0165 | 0.0133 | 0.0042 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 |
| 3 | Trevor Williams | 0.0063 | 0.0089 | 0.0140 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 4 | Robert Stephenson | 0.0142 | 0.0107 | 0.0052 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| 5 | Rafael Montero | 0.0046 | 0.0075 | 0.0091 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| 6 | Jimmy Nelson | 0.0177 | 0.0162 | 0.0124 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 7 | Tanner Roark | 0.0117 | 0.0105 | 0.0077 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 8 | Seth Lugo | 0.0130 | 0.0107 | 0.0046 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 9 | Jon Gray | 0.0140 | 0.0118 | 0.0043 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 |
| 10 | Erasmo Ramírez | 0.0123 | 0.0106 | 0.0037 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack Greinke | 0.0059 | 0.0044 | 0.0000 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | Drew Storen | 0.0119 | 0.0185 | 0.0407 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 1.5 |
| 3 | Charlie Morton | 0.0154 | 0.0183 | 0.0211 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 4 | Luis García | 0.0087 | 0.0043 | 0.0000 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 5 | Chris Archer | 0.0072 | 0.0060 | 0.0059 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| 6 | Ricky Nolasco | 0.0081 | 0.0068 | 0.0038 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 7 | Yovani Gallardo | 0.0054 | 0.0035 | 0.0035 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| 8 | Drew Pomeranz | 0.0064 | 0.0049 | 0.0054 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.3 |
| 9 | Oliver Pérez | 0.0132 | 0.0227 | 0.0280 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| 10 | Kyle Freeland | 0.0071 | 0.0094 | 0.0116 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Lorenzen | 0.0221 | 0.0164 | 0.0111 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | Jordan Montgomery | 0.0124 | 0.0096 | 0.0015 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 |
| 3 | Drew Pomeranz | 0.0034 | 0.0049 | 0.0054 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| 4 | Stephen Strasburg | 0.0046 | 0.0061 | 0.0100 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 5 | Marcus Stroman | 0.0050 | 0.0062 | 0.0072 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| 6 | Jimmy Nelson | 0.0185 | 0.0162 | 0.0124 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 7 | Daniel Gossett | 0.0146 | 0.0112 | 0.0000 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 1.3 |
| 8 | Tim Adleman | 0.0141 | 0.0114 | 0.0113 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 1.2 |
| 9 | Ty Blach | 0.0105 | 0.0084 | 0.0014 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 1.2 |
| 10 | Jose Quintana | 0.0050 | 0.0060 | 0.0127 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 1.1 |
Home Run Rate
Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | 0.0275 |
0.0436
(16.7)
|
0.0387
(13.3)
|
0.0439
(17.1)
|
0.0433
(16.2)
|
| John Lackey | 0.0696 |
0.0410
(15.4)
|
0.0382
(17.3)
|
0.0425
(14.0)
|
0.0395
(16.7)
|
| Andrew Heaney | 0.1846 |
0.0384
(14.0)
|
0.0402
(13.8)
|
0.0427
(13.5)
|
0.0342
(14.5)
|
| Amir Garrett | 0.1065 |
0.0460
(17.0)
|
0.0478
(16.4)
|
0.0447
(17.3)
|
0.0472
(16.7)
|
| Kyle Freeland | 0.0333 |
0.0468
(14.5)
|
0.0478
(15.3)
|
0.0443
(13.0)
|
0.0491
(15.9)
|
| Brad Peacock | 0.0308 |
0.0511
(15.2)
|
0.0471
(13.1)
|
0.0510
(15.4)
|
0.0511
(15.1)
|
| Masahiro Tanaka | 0.0686 |
0.0438
(12.9)
|
0.0426
(13.7)
|
0.0442
(12.5)
|
0.0435
(13.5)
|
| Stephen Strasburg | 0.0293 |
0.0401
(12.9)
|
0.0406
(13.3)
|
0.0402
(13.1)
|
0.0400
(12.6)
|
| Gerrit Cole | 0.0522 |
0.0300
(12.4)
|
0.0243
(17.1)
|
0.0312
(11.1)
|
0.0287
(13.7)
|
| Ubaldo Jiménez | 0.0740 |
0.0423
(15.6)
|
0.0369
(19.1)
|
0.0435
(14.6)
|
0.0410
(16.7)
|
Individual Misses for Home Run Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aríel Miranda | 0.0452 | 0.0782 | 17.2 |
| 2 | Michael Fulmer | 0.0391 | 0.0253 | 14.4 |
| 3 | Zach Davies | 0.0400 | 0.0318 | 12.9 |
| 4 | Jake Odorizzi | 0.0438 | 0.0725 | 12.7 |
| 5 | Taijuan Walker | 0.0470 | 0.0363 | 12.5 |
| 6 | Rick Porcello | 0.0367 | 0.0585 | 12.5 |
| 7 | Chase Anderson | 0.0500 | 0.0361 | 12.3 |
| 8 | Jharel Cotton | 0.0407 | 0.0693 | 11.9 |
| 9 | Mike Pelfrey | 0.0341 | 0.0633 | 11.8 |
| 10 | Danny Duffy | 0.0413 | 0.0300 | 11.5 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taijuan Walker | 0.0525 | 0.0363 | 16.4 |
| 2 | Junior Guerra | 0.0352 | 0.0900 | 14.8 |
| 3 | Trevor Williams | 0.0442 | 0.0302 | 14.0 |
| 4 | Bronson Arroyo | 0.0393 | 0.0898 | 13.8 |
| 5 | Derek Holland | 0.0410 | 0.0706 | 13.7 |
| 6 | Mike Pelfrey | 0.0310 | 0.0633 | 13.4 |
| 7 | Chris Tillman | 0.0364 | 0.0736 | 13.1 |
| 8 | Jameson Taillon | 0.0411 | 0.0267 | 13.0 |
| 9 | Luis Perdomo | 0.0427 | 0.0324 | 12.9 |
| 10 | Matthew Boyd | 0.0546 | 0.0410 | 12.9 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zach Davies | 0.0422 | 0.0318 | 14.9 |
| 2 | Aríel Miranda | 0.0493 | 0.0782 | 14.3 |
| 3 | Michael Fulmer | 0.0381 | 0.0253 | 14.0 |
| 4 | Chase Anderson | 0.0515 | 0.0361 | 13.2 |
| 5 | Danny Duffy | 0.0430 | 0.0300 | 12.8 |
| 6 | Junior Guerra | 0.0438 | 0.0900 | 12.0 |
| 7 | Mike Pelfrey | 0.0339 | 0.0633 | 11.7 |
| 8 | Shawn Kelley | 0.0414 | 0.1429 | 11.3 |
| 9 | Kirby Yates | 0.0418 | 0.0984 | 11.2 |
| 10 | Rick Porcello | 0.0381 | 0.0585 | 11.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aríel Miranda | 0.0412 | 0.0782 | 20.2 |
| 2 | Jake Odorizzi | 0.0396 | 0.0725 | 15.5 |
| 3 | Michael Fulmer | 0.0400 | 0.0253 | 14.8 |
| 4 | Taijuan Walker | 0.0501 | 0.0363 | 14.4 |
| 5 | Rick Porcello | 0.0353 | 0.0585 | 14.1 |
| 6 | Mike Fiers | 0.0436 | 0.0711 | 13.6 |
| 7 | Jharel Cotton | 0.0387 | 0.0693 | 13.2 |
| 8 | Matt Harvey | 0.0297 | 0.0675 | 13.2 |
| 9 | Tim Adleman | 0.0488 | 0.0792 | 12.3 |
| 10 | Luis Perdomo | 0.0420 | 0.0324 | 12.1 |
Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ty Blach | 0.0395 | 0.0311 | 0.0296 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 5.9 |
| 2 | Chris Devenski | 0.0258 | 0.0429 | 0.0585 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 5.4 |
| 3 | Rich Hill | 0.0278 | 0.0373 | 0.0549 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 5.2 |
| 4 | Jameson Taillon | 0.0411 | 0.0326 | 0.0267 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 5.1 |
| 5 | Bronson Arroyo | 0.0393 | 0.0549 | 0.0898 | 13.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 |
| 6 | Trevor Williams | 0.0442 | 0.0367 | 0.0302 | 14.0 | 9.1 | 4.9 |
| 7 | Jose Quintana | 0.0308 | 0.0370 | 0.0449 | 5.1 | 0.3 | 4.8 |
| 8 | Gerrit Cole | 0.0243 | 0.0300 | 0.0522 | 17.1 | 12.4 | 4.8 |
| 9 | Germán Márquez | 0.0351 | 0.0435 | 0.0503 | 5.3 | 0.6 | 4.7 |
| 10 | Luis Perdomo | 0.0427 | 0.0365 | 0.0324 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marco Estrada | 0.0561 | 0.0489 | 0.0557 | 6.7 | 0.7 | 6.0 |
| 2 | Dylan Bundy | 0.0531 | 0.0467 | 0.0533 | 5.4 | 0.7 | 4.7 |
| 3 | Nick Pivetta | 0.0417 | 0.0464 | 0.0653 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 |
| 4 | Aaron Nola | 0.0372 | 0.0343 | 0.0393 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| 5 | Max Scherzer | 0.0449 | 0.0425 | 0.0493 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| 6 | Asher Wojciechowski | 0.0366 | 0.0443 | 0.0733 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.1 |
| 7 | Zach Davies | 0.0422 | 0.0400 | 0.0318 | 14.9 | 12.9 | 2.0 |
| 8 | Jose Quintana | 0.0399 | 0.0370 | 0.0449 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 2.0 |
| 9 | Edwin Díaz | 0.0350 | 0.0423 | 0.0649 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 10 | Justin Verlander | 0.0440 | 0.0420 | 0.0487 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.9 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marco Estrada | 0.0420 | 0.0489 | 0.0557 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 4.5 |
| 2 | Jaime García | 0.0430 | 0.0361 | 0.0376 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| 3 | Luis Perdomo | 0.0420 | 0.0365 | 0.0324 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.7 |
| 4 | Ervin Santana | 0.0370 | 0.0407 | 0.0494 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 3.5 |
| 5 | Kevin Gausman | 0.0389 | 0.0428 | 0.0517 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 3.5 |
| 6 | Dylan Bundy | 0.0401 | 0.0467 | 0.0533 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 3.4 |
| 7 | Chris Sale | 0.0349 | 0.0383 | 0.0488 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| 8 | Aríel Miranda | 0.0412 | 0.0452 | 0.0782 | 20.2 | 17.2 | 3.0 |
| 9 | Jake Odorizzi | 0.0396 | 0.0438 | 0.0725 | 15.5 | 12.7 | 2.7 |
| 10 | Andrew Miller | 0.0565 | 0.0450 | 0.0244 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 |
BABIP
Everybody Missed for BABIP
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gio Gonzalez | 0.2575 |
0.3013
(38.7)
|
0.3177
(50.5)
|
0.3043
(37.7)
|
0.2983
(39.7)
|
| José Ureña | 0.2485 |
0.2918
(33.6)
|
0.3036
(40.5)
|
0.3003
(36.7)
|
0.2837
(30.7)
|
| Trevor Bauer | 0.3369 |
0.2928
(30.8)
|
0.2911
(33.7)
|
0.2948
(32.4)
|
0.2908
(29.2)
|
| Jake Odorizzi | 0.2266 |
0.2827
(35.7)
|
0.2784
(31.8)
|
0.2844
(34.3)
|
0.2809
(37.2)
|
| Kevin Gausman | 0.3365 |
0.2954
(31.0)
|
0.2998
(29.2)
|
0.2960
(33.9)
|
0.2948
(28.1)
|
| Jeremy Hellickson | 0.2456 |
0.2898
(32.8)
|
0.2860
(28.7)
|
0.2928
(32.1)
|
0.2867
(33.6)
|
| Lance Lynn | 0.2441 |
0.2949
(41.8)
|
0.3045
(47.6)
|
0.2988
(41.6)
|
0.2911
(42.0)
|
| Clayton Richard | 0.3506 |
0.3024
(38.8)
|
0.3119
(32.5)
|
0.3085
(37.2)
|
0.2965
(40.3)
|
| Rafael Montero | 0.3665 |
0.2922
(39.2)
|
0.3028
(34.5)
|
0.2973
(38.6)
|
0.2870
(39.7)
|
| Ervin Santana | 0.2446 |
0.2992
(49.9)
|
0.2926
(42.2)
|
0.3016
(48.3)
|
0.2970
(51.5)
|
| Jameson Taillon | 0.3516 |
0.3000
(28.5)
|
0.2936
(33.6)
|
0.3087
(25.8)
|
0.2914
(31.1)
|
| Cole Hamels | 0.2506 |
0.2963
(29.9)
|
0.2971
(29.1)
|
0.2992
(29.2)
|
0.2934
(30.7)
|
Individual Misses for BABIP
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aríel Miranda | 0.2863 | 0.2362 | 36.0 |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | 0.2836 | 0.2453 | 32.3 |
| 3 | Aníbal Sánchez | 0.2921 | 0.3542 | 28.5 |
| 4 | Jimmy Nelson | 0.2983 | 0.3399 | 28.1 |
| 5 | Andrew Cashner | 0.3025 | 0.2660 | 27.8 |
| 6 | Vance Worley | 0.2926 | 0.3782 | 27.5 |
| 7 | Robbie Ray | 0.3055 | 0.2672 | 27.5 |
| 8 | Chris Archer | 0.2904 | 0.3249 | 26.8 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Ray | 0.3296 | 0.2672 | 42.0 |
| 2 | Marco Estrada | 0.2454 | 0.2947 | 39.0 |
| 3 | Andrew Cashner | 0.3104 | 0.2660 | 31.9 |
| 4 | Jimmy Nelson | 0.2970 | 0.3399 | 30.6 |
| 5 | Josh Tomlin | 0.2764 | 0.3287 | 30.1 |
| 6 | Mike Pelfrey | 0.3288 | 0.2757 | 29.5 |
| 7 | Jason Hammel | 0.2808 | 0.3177 | 29.0 |
| 8 | Blake Snell | 0.3267 | 0.2768 | 27.8 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Scherzer | 0.2889 | 0.2453 | 33.2 |
| 2 | Aríel Miranda | 0.2853 | 0.2362 | 32.5 |
| 3 | Aníbal Sánchez | 0.2935 | 0.3542 | 29.8 |
| 4 | Chris Archer | 0.2916 | 0.3249 | 29.2 |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | 0.3103 | 0.2691 | 27.2 |
| 6 | Dallas Keuchel | 0.3030 | 0.2557 | 26.9 |
| 7 | Jordan Zimmermann | 0.2948 | 0.3302 | 26.0 |
| 8 | Matt Moore | 0.2882 | 0.3198 | 25.8 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aríel Miranda | 0.2873 | 0.2362 | 39.5 |
| 2 | Robbie Ray | 0.3144 | 0.2672 | 36.1 |
| 3 | Marco Estrada | 0.2468 | 0.2947 | 32.8 |
| 4 | Jimmy Nelson | 0.2888 | 0.3399 | 32.0 |
| 5 | Max Scherzer | 0.2784 | 0.2453 | 31.4 |
| 6 | Andrew Cashner | 0.3024 | 0.2660 | 30.6 |
| 7 | Vance Worley | 0.2828 | 0.3782 | 29.4 |
| 8 | Aníbal Sánchez | 0.2906 | 0.3542 | 27.2 |
Most Unique Misses for BABIP
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blake Snell | 0.3267 | 0.2912 | 0.2768 | 27.8 | 9.5 | 18.2 |
| 2 | Dan Straily | 0.2607 | 0.2819 | 0.2883 | 20.6 | 2.5 | 18.0 |
| 3 | Marco Estrada | 0.2454 | 0.2631 | 0.2947 | 39.0 | 23.0 | 16.0 |
| 4 | Robbie Ray | 0.3296 | 0.3055 | 0.2672 | 42.0 | 27.5 | 14.6 |
| 5 | Masahiro Tanaka | 0.2733 | 0.2901 | 0.3053 | 23.4 | 9.1 | 14.3 |
| 6 | Jake Arrieta | 0.2580 | 0.2764 | 0.2785 | 13.9 | 0.6 | 13.3 |
| 7 | Gerrit Cole | 0.3184 | 0.3015 | 0.2984 | 17.7 | 5.3 | 12.5 |
| 8 | Drew Pomeranz | 0.2767 | 0.2904 | 0.3101 | 24.1 | 12.3 | 11.8 |
| 9 | Gio Gonzalez | 0.3177 | 0.3013 | 0.2575 | 50.5 | 38.7 | 11.8 |
| 10 | Mike Pelfrey | 0.3288 | 0.3062 | 0.2757 | 29.5 | 18.3 | 11.1 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Arrieta | 0.2944 | 0.2764 | 0.2785 | 10.5 | 0.6 | 9.8 |
| 2 | John Lackey | 0.2926 | 0.2792 | 0.2682 | 17.0 | 10.3 | 6.7 |
| 3 | Carlos Martinez | 0.3063 | 0.2949 | 0.2841 | 18.1 | 11.9 | 6.2 |
| 4 | Tyler Chatwood | 0.3150 | 0.3014 | 0.2829 | 19.5 | 13.6 | 5.9 |
| 5 | Mike Montgomery | 0.2987 | 0.2840 | 0.2534 | 23.9 | 18.1 | 5.7 |
| 6 | Julio Teheran | 0.2947 | 0.2839 | 0.2813 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 5.4 |
| 7 | Kyle Hendricks | 0.2943 | 0.2815 | 0.2809 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 4.9 |
| 8 | Sonny Gray | 0.3103 | 0.2993 | 0.2691 | 27.2 | 22.5 | 4.7 |
| 9 | Iván Nova | 0.3129 | 0.3031 | 0.2990 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 4.4 |
| 10 | Jaime García | 0.3090 | 0.2987 | 0.3015 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 4.1 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marco Estrada | 0.2468 | 0.2631 | 0.2947 | 32.8 | 23.0 | 9.8 |
| 2 | Jake Arrieta | 0.2579 | 0.2764 | 0.2785 | 9.5 | 0.6 | 8.9 |
| 3 | Tanner Roark | 0.2731 | 0.2886 | 0.2998 | 15.2 | 6.3 | 8.9 |
| 4 | Robbie Ray | 0.3144 | 0.3055 | 0.2672 | 36.1 | 27.5 | 8.7 |
| 5 | Yu Darvish | 0.3062 | 0.2995 | 0.2833 | 23.1 | 14.8 | 8.3 |
| 6 | R.A. Dickey | 0.2690 | 0.2817 | 0.2899 | 11.2 | 4.2 | 7.0 |
| 7 | Mike Leake | 0.2865 | 0.2970 | 0.3089 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 5.0 |
| 8 | Jason Vargas | 0.2956 | 0.2933 | 0.2895 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| 9 | Blake Snell | 0.2956 | 0.2912 | 0.2768 | 14.2 | 9.5 | 4.7 |
| 10 | Jon Lester | 0.2715 | 0.2816 | 0.3103 | 24.1 | 19.6 | 4.5 |
Single Rate
Everybody Missed for Single Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Nelson | 0.2763 |
0.2983
(36.7)
|
0.2283
(35.9)
|
0.3079
(32.6)
|
0.2888
(40.0)
|
| Lance Lynn | 0.1890 |
0.2949
(26.1)
|
0.2273
(28.8)
|
0.2988
(25.9)
|
0.2911
(26.9)
|
| Kevin Gausman | 0.2594 |
0.2954
(29.7)
|
0.2276
(27.0)
|
0.2960
(32.5)
|
0.2948
(26.1)
|
| Jeremy Hellickson | 0.1591 |
0.2898
(40.5)
|
0.1988
(26.7)
|
0.2928
(39.8)
|
0.2867
(41.8)
|
| Rafael Montero | 0.2955 |
0.2922
(41.6)
|
0.2183
(43.1)
|
0.2973
(41.0)
|
0.2870
(41.7)
|
| Ervin Santana | 0.1893 |
0.2992
(32.5)
|
0.2183
(24.0)
|
0.3016
(31.0)
|
0.2970
(34.8)
|
| Aníbal Sánchez | 0.2759 |
0.2921
(27.1)
|
0.2254
(24.9)
|
0.2935
(28.3)
|
0.2906
(25.4)
|
| Charlie Morton | 0.1830 |
0.2995
(27.2)
|
0.2265
(26.1)
|
0.3056
(28.5)
|
0.2934
(26.5)
|
| Cole Hamels | 0.1803 |
0.2963
(26.8)
|
0.2316
(30.7)
|
0.2992
(26.1)
|
0.2934
(28.0)
|
| Jason Hammel | 0.2535 |
0.2893
(29.4)
|
0.2032
(41.4)
|
0.2939
(28.9)
|
0.2847
(29.1)
|
Individual Misses for Single Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Scherzer | 0.2836 | 0.1698 | 32.3 |
| 2 | Aríel Miranda | 0.2863 | 0.1674 | 31.5 |
| 3 | Jake Odorizzi | 0.2827 | 0.1667 | 26.3 |
| 4 | Martín Pérez | 0.3005 | 0.2599 | 25.8 |
| 5 | Matt Cain | 0.2890 | 0.2618 | 25.7 |
| 6 | Clayton Richard | 0.3024 | 0.2597 | 25.5 |
| 7 | Wade Miley | 0.3009 | 0.2629 | 25.1 |
| 8 | Blake Wood | 0.2931 | 0.2961 | 25.0 |
| 9 | Dinelson Lamet | 0.2952 | 0.1716 | 24.8 |
| 10 | Casey Lawrence | 0.2993 | 0.3200 | 24.6 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gio Gonzalez | 0.2431 | 0.1992 | 35.2 |
| 2 | Mike Pelfrey | 0.2648 | 0.2081 | 30.3 |
| 3 | Blake Snell | 0.2541 | 0.1977 | 30.2 |
| 4 | Martín Pérez | 0.2241 | 0.2599 | 30.1 |
| 5 | Alex Wood | 0.2475 | 0.1980 | 29.6 |
| 6 | Drew Pomeranz | 0.2110 | 0.2468 | 27.5 |
| 7 | Casey Lawrence | 0.2211 | 0.3200 | 26.4 |
| 8 | Wade Miley | 0.2313 | 0.2629 | 24.0 |
| 9 | Blake Wood | 0.2254 | 0.2961 | 23.9 |
| 10 | Dinelson Lamet | 0.2211 | 0.1716 | 23.4 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Scherzer | 0.2889 | 0.1698 | 33.3 |
| 2 | Aríel Miranda | 0.2853 | 0.1674 | 28.1 |
| 3 | Matt Cain | 0.2888 | 0.2618 | 28.0 |
| 4 | Casey Lawrence | 0.2969 | 0.3200 | 26.3 |
| 5 | Wade Miley | 0.3033 | 0.2629 | 26.2 |
| 6 | Tyler Chatwood | 0.3150 | 0.1976 | 25.9 |
| 7 | Blake Wood | 0.2964 | 0.2961 | 25.3 |
| 8 | Chris Archer | 0.2916 | 0.2446 | 25.0 |
| 9 | José Ureña | 0.3003 | 0.1893 | 25.0 |
| 10 | Jake Odorizzi | 0.2844 | 0.1667 | 25.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aríel Miranda | 0.2873 | 0.1674 | 35.6 |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | 0.2784 | 0.1698 | 32.1 |
| 3 | Jake Odorizzi | 0.2809 | 0.1667 | 28.3 |
| 4 | Martín Pérez | 0.2927 | 0.2599 | 28.1 |
| 5 | Ian Kennedy | 0.2857 | 0.1769 | 27.1 |
| 6 | Clayton Richard | 0.2965 | 0.2597 | 26.3 |
| 7 | Gio Gonzalez | 0.2983 | 0.1992 | 26.2 |
| 8 | Jacob deGrom | 0.2845 | 0.2485 | 26.0 |
| 9 | Dinelson Lamet | 0.2926 | 0.1716 | 26.0 |
| 10 | Yu Darvish | 0.3062 | 0.2060 | 25.1 |
Most Unique Misses for Single Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blake Snell | 0.2541 | 0.2912 | 0.1977 | 30.2 | 11.5 | 18.6 |
| 2 | Alex Wood | 0.2475 | 0.2909 | 0.1980 | 29.6 | 12.6 | 17.0 |
| 3 | Mike Pelfrey | 0.2648 | 0.3062 | 0.2081 | 30.3 | 14.0 | 16.3 |
| 4 | Carlos Martinez | 0.2394 | 0.2949 | 0.2131 | 21.5 | 8.1 | 13.4 |
| 5 | Jason Hammel | 0.2032 | 0.2893 | 0.2535 | 41.4 | 29.4 | 12.0 |
| 6 | Josh Tomlin | 0.2022 | 0.2924 | 0.2322 | 18.2 | 7.1 | 11.1 |
| 7 | Masahiro Tanaka | 0.2024 | 0.2901 | 0.2168 | 11.8 | 0.7 | 11.1 |
| 8 | Gio Gonzalez | 0.2431 | 0.3013 | 0.1992 | 35.2 | 24.5 | 10.7 |
| 9 | Marco Estrada | 0.1789 | 0.2631 | 0.1939 | 13.1 | 2.6 | 10.5 |
| 10 | John Lackey | 0.2218 | 0.2792 | 0.2017 | 13.8 | 3.8 | 10.0 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Arrieta | 0.2944 | 0.2764 | 0.1952 | 16.2 | 6.2 | 9.9 |
| 2 | R.A. Dickey | 0.2948 | 0.2817 | 0.2014 | 13.9 | 6.4 | 7.5 |
| 3 | John Lackey | 0.2926 | 0.2792 | 0.2017 | 10.6 | 3.8 | 6.8 |
| 4 | Carlos Martinez | 0.3063 | 0.2949 | 0.2131 | 14.4 | 8.1 | 6.3 |
| 5 | Tyler Chatwood | 0.3150 | 0.3014 | 0.1976 | 25.9 | 19.9 | 6.0 |
| 6 | Mike Montgomery | 0.2987 | 0.2840 | 0.2044 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 5.8 |
| 7 | Marco Estrada | 0.2806 | 0.2631 | 0.1939 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 5.7 |
| 8 | Gregory Infante | 0.2211 | 0.3013 | 0.1987 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 5.4 |
| 9 | Sonny Gray | 0.3103 | 0.2993 | 0.1973 | 24.8 | 20.0 | 4.8 |
| 10 | Iván Nova | 0.3129 | 0.3031 | 0.2216 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Ray | 0.3144 | 0.3055 | 0.2098 | 24.8 | 15.5 | 9.2 |
| 2 | Marco Estrada | 0.2468 | 0.2631 | 0.1939 | 11.7 | 2.6 | 9.1 |
| 3 | Yu Darvish | 0.3062 | 0.2995 | 0.2060 | 25.1 | 16.2 | 9.0 |
| 4 | Rex Brothers | 0.2211 | 0.3064 | 0.2500 | 10.1 | 1.7 | 8.4 |
| 5 | Tanner Roark | 0.2731 | 0.2886 | 0.2321 | 20.5 | 12.3 | 8.2 |
| 6 | Nick Goody | 0.2211 | 0.2901 | 0.2017 | 10.6 | 3.5 | 7.0 |
| 7 | Jack Flaherty | 0.2211 | 0.3007 | 0.2712 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 |
| 8 | Chris Rowley | 0.2211 | 0.2972 | 0.2344 | 7.2 | 0.8 | 6.3 |
| 9 | Jesen Therrien | 0.2211 | 0.2964 | 0.2381 | 7.3 | 1.2 | 6.0 |
| 10 | Jason Vargas | 0.2956 | 0.2933 | 0.2199 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 5.5 |
Double Rate
Everybody Missed for Double Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Adleman | 0.1009 |
0.0000
(17.0)
|
0.0625
(18.8)
|
0.0000
(17.0)
|
0.0000
(17.4)
|
| Bartolo Colon | 0.1010 |
0.0000
(20.8)
|
0.0637
(22.3)
|
0.0000
(20.9)
|
0.0000
(21.3)
|
| Marco Estrada | 0.0932 |
0.0000
(19.5)
|
0.0573
(26.5)
|
0.0000
(19.6)
|
0.0000
(20.1)
|
| Rick Porcello | 0.0882 |
0.0000
(17.1)
|
0.0598
(22.6)
|
0.0000
(17.2)
|
0.0000
(17.8)
|
| Lance Lynn | 0.0413 |
0.0000
(21.4)
|
0.0682
(23.1)
|
0.0000
(21.3)
|
0.0000
(20.8)
|
| Michael Feliz | 0.1441 |
0.0000
(16.4)
|
0.0641
(16.8)
|
0.0000
(16.4)
|
0.0000
(16.5)
|
| Ubaldo Jiménez | 0.0944 |
0.0000
(16.5)
|
0.0646
(17.4)
|
0.0000
(16.6)
|
0.0000
(17.0)
|
| Ervin Santana | 0.0469 |
0.0000
(19.1)
|
0.0699
(22.4)
|
0.0000
(18.9)
|
0.0000
(18.4)
|
| Wily Peralta | 0.1437 |
0.0000
(20.1)
|
0.0721
(18.5)
|
0.0000
(20.1)
|
0.0000
(20.3)
|
| Charlie Morton | 0.1034 |
0.0000
(21.3)
|
0.0684
(19.8)
|
0.0000
(21.4)
|
0.0000
(21.8)
|
| Homer Bailey | 0.1062 |
0.0000
(15.6)
|
0.0613
(17.6)
|
0.0000
(15.7)
|
0.0000
(16.0)
|
Individual Misses for Double Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Nolasco | 0.0000 | 0.0949 | 20.4 |
| 2 | Jaime García | 0.0000 | 0.0933 | 16.4 |
| 3 | Chad Kuhl | 0.0000 | 0.0926 | 16.0 |
| 4 | Carlos Carrasco | 0.0000 | 0.0889 | 15.9 |
| 5 | Jacob deGrom | 0.0000 | 0.0501 | 15.6 |
| 6 | Michael Fulmer | 0.0000 | 0.0459 | 15.6 |
| 7 | Andrew Cashner | 0.0000 | 0.0472 | 15.3 |
| 8 | Jameson Taillon | 0.0000 | 0.0948 | 15.2 |
| 9 | Bronson Arroyo | 0.0000 | 0.1159 | 15.1 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Cashner | 0.0735 | 0.0472 | 20.6 |
| 2 | Matt Moore | 0.0545 | 0.0813 | 18.9 |
| 3 | José Ureña | 0.0714 | 0.0493 | 18.1 |
| 4 | Clayton Richard | 0.0550 | 0.0779 | 17.1 |
| 5 | Robbie Ray | 0.0740 | 0.0517 | 16.8 |
| 6 | Jordan Montgomery | 0.0690 | 0.0463 | 16.6 |
| 7 | Chris Rusin | 0.0777 | 0.0336 | 16.0 |
| 8 | Luis Severino | 0.0805 | 0.0632 | 15.8 |
| 9 | Bronson Arroyo | 0.0643 | 0.1159 | 15.7 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Nolasco | 0.0000 | 0.0949 | 20.5 |
| 2 | Jaime García | 0.0000 | 0.0933 | 16.5 |
| 3 | Gregory Infante | 0.0690 | 0.0662 | 16.2 |
| 4 | Chad Kuhl | 0.0000 | 0.0926 | 16.1 |
| 5 | Carlos Carrasco | 0.0000 | 0.0889 | 16.0 |
| 6 | Michael Fulmer | 0.0000 | 0.0459 | 15.5 |
| 7 | Jacob deGrom | 0.0000 | 0.0501 | 15.5 |
| 8 | Andrew Cashner | 0.0000 | 0.0472 | 15.2 |
| 9 | Jameson Taillon | 0.0000 | 0.0948 | 15.2 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Nolasco | 0.0000 | 0.0949 | 21.0 |
| 2 | Nick Goody | 0.0690 | 0.0588 | 17.3 |
| 3 | Jaime García | 0.0000 | 0.0933 | 16.9 |
| 4 | Chad Kuhl | 0.0000 | 0.0926 | 16.6 |
| 5 | Carlos Carrasco | 0.0000 | 0.0889 | 16.5 |
| 6 | Jameson Taillon | 0.0000 | 0.0948 | 15.6 |
| 7 | Bronson Arroyo | 0.0000 | 0.1159 | 15.4 |
| 8 | Trevor Bauer | 0.0000 | 0.0886 | 15.3 |
| 9 | Josh Tomlin | 0.0000 | 0.0943 | 15.3 |
Most Unique Misses for Double Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iván Nova | 0.0816 | 0.0000 | 0.0687 | 12.4 | 0.2 | 12.2 |
| 2 | Luis Severino | 0.0805 | 0.0000 | 0.0632 | 15.8 | 4.5 | 11.3 |
| 3 | Clayton Richard | 0.0550 | 0.0000 | 0.0779 | 17.1 | 7.7 | 9.4 |
| 4 | Matt Moore | 0.0545 | 0.0000 | 0.0813 | 18.9 | 9.8 | 9.1 |
| 5 | Alex Wood | 0.0528 | 0.0000 | 0.0693 | 8.3 | 0.2 | 8.1 |
| 6 | Kenta Maeda | 0.0525 | 0.0000 | 0.0730 | 9.8 | 2.3 | 7.5 |
| 7 | Marco Estrada | 0.0573 | 0.0000 | 0.0932 | 26.5 | 19.5 | 7.0 |
| 8 | Wade Miley | 0.0750 | 0.0000 | 0.0647 | 9.7 | 3.1 | 6.5 |
| 9 | Jake Arrieta | 0.0576 | 0.0000 | 0.0724 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 6.0 |
| 10 | Michael Pineda | 0.0806 | 0.0000 | 0.0509 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 6.0 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Infante | 0.0690 | 0.0000 | 0.0662 | 16.2 | 0.6 | 15.6 |
| 2 | José Ruiz | 0.0690 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 3 | Rick Porcello | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0882 | 17.2 | 17.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | Clayton Richard | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0779 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 0.1 |
| 5 | Chris Archer | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0724 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 0.1 |
| 6 | Chris Sale | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0726 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 0.1 |
| 7 | Jeff Samardzija | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0697 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 8 | Patrick Corbin | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0842 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 0.1 |
| 9 | Kevin Gausman | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0733 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 0.1 |
| 10 | R.A. Dickey | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0799 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 0.1 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Goody | 0.0690 | 0.0000 | 0.0588 | 17.3 | 2.2 | 15.1 |
| 2 | John Brebbia | 0.0690 | 0.0000 | 0.0821 | 11.5 | 2.7 | 8.8 |
| 3 | Hector Velázquez | 0.0690 | 0.0000 | 0.0606 | 7.3 | 0.8 | 6.5 |
| 4 | Jack Flaherty | 0.0690 | 0.0000 | 0.0339 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 6.4 |
| 5 | Aaron Bummer | 0.0690 | 0.0000 | 0.0370 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 6.2 |
| 6 | Chris Rowley | 0.0690 | 0.0000 | 0.0312 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 6.1 |
| 7 | Jesen Therrien | 0.0690 | 0.0000 | 0.0635 | 6.3 | 0.5 | 5.9 |
| 8 | Yacksel Ríos | 0.0690 | 0.0000 | 0.0465 | 6.6 | 1.6 | 5.0 |
| 9 | Austin Maddox | 0.0690 | 0.0000 | 0.0200 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 4.6 |
| 10 | Carlos Ramírez | 0.0690 | 0.0000 | 0.0541 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 4.0 |
Triple Rate
Everybody Missed for Triple Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Chatwood | 0.0220 |
0.0000
(9.8)
|
0.0074
(9.7)
|
0.0000
(9.8)
|
0.0000
(9.8)
|
| Matt Moore | 0.0166 |
0.0000
(8.0)
|
0.0042
(10.5)
|
0.0000
(8.0)
|
0.0000
(8.1)
|
| Gio Gonzalez | 0.0000 |
0.0000
(5.4)
|
0.0107
(8.1)
|
0.0000
(5.4)
|
0.0000
(5.3)
|
| Luis Perdomo | 0.0000 |
0.0000
(4.6)
|
0.0079
(5.0)
|
0.0000
(4.6)
|
0.0000
(4.6)
|
| Josh Ravin | 0.0789 |
0.0000
(5.1)
|
0.0118
(4.8)
|
0.0000
(5.1)
|
0.0000
(5.2)
|
| Jeff Hoffman | 0.0201 |
0.0000
(6.0)
|
0.0049
(7.0)
|
0.0000
(6.0)
|
0.0000
(6.0)
|
| Danny Duffy | 0.0166 |
0.0000
(6.2)
|
0.0071
(6.3)
|
0.0000
(6.2)
|
0.0000
(6.2)
|
| Pedro Báez | 0.0227 |
0.0000
(4.5)
|
0.0056
(5.0)
|
0.0000
(4.6)
|
0.0000
(4.6)
|
| Oliver Drake | 0.0316 |
0.0000
(6.3)
|
0.0100
(5.6)
|
0.0000
(6.3)
|
0.0000
(6.3)
|
| Jeff Samardzija | 0.0209 |
0.0000
(12.2)
|
0.0114
(8.8)
|
0.0000
(12.2)
|
0.0000
(12.3)
|
| Sean Newcomb | 0.0182 |
0.0000
(5.3)
|
0.0065
(5.7)
|
0.0000
(5.3)
|
0.0000
(5.4)
|
| Kelvin Herrera | 0.0347 |
0.0000
(7.3)
|
0.0054
(7.8)
|
0.0000
(7.3)
|
0.0000
(7.3)
|
Individual Misses for Triple Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germán Márquez | 0.0000 | 0.0148 | 5.9 |
| 2 | Lance Lynn | 0.0000 | 0.0138 | 5.7 |
| 3 | Clayton Richard | 0.0000 | 0.0130 | 5.6 |
| 4 | Luis Severino | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 5.1 |
| 5 | Corey Kluber | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 5.0 |
| 6 | Patrick Corbin | 0.0000 | 0.0125 | 5.0 |
| 7 | Masahiro Tanaka | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 4.9 |
| 8 | Matthew Boyd | 0.0000 | 0.0143 | 4.7 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Cashner | 0.0142 | 0.0019 | 8.1 |
| 2 | Rafael Montero | 0.0141 | 0.0000 | 7.3 |
| 3 | Yu Darvish | 0.0106 | 0.0021 | 5.8 |
| 4 | Jerad Eickhoff | 0.0106 | 0.0000 | 5.6 |
| 5 | Taijuan Walker | 0.0048 | 0.0111 | 4.9 |
| 6 | Hunter Strickland | 0.0060 | 0.0229 | 4.7 |
| 7 | Parker Bridwell | 0.0130 | 0.0027 | 4.6 |
| 8 | Jon Gray | 0.0073 | 0.0163 | 4.5 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germán Márquez | 0.0000 | 0.0148 | 5.9 |
| 2 | Lance Lynn | 0.0000 | 0.0138 | 5.7 |
| 3 | Clayton Richard | 0.0000 | 0.0130 | 5.6 |
| 4 | Luis Severino | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 5.1 |
| 5 | Corey Kluber | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 5.0 |
| 6 | Patrick Corbin | 0.0000 | 0.0125 | 5.0 |
| 7 | Masahiro Tanaka | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 4.9 |
| 8 | Matthew Boyd | 0.0000 | 0.0143 | 4.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germán Márquez | 0.0000 | 0.0148 | 5.9 |
| 2 | Lance Lynn | 0.0000 | 0.0138 | 5.7 |
| 3 | Clayton Richard | 0.0000 | 0.0130 | 5.6 |
| 4 | Patrick Corbin | 0.0000 | 0.0125 | 5.1 |
| 5 | Luis Severino | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 5.0 |
| 6 | Corey Kluber | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 5.0 |
| 7 | Masahiro Tanaka | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 4.8 |
| 8 | Matthew Boyd | 0.0000 | 0.0143 | 4.7 |
Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Cashner | 0.0142 | 0.0000 | 0.0019 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 4.9 |
| 2 | Rafael Montero | 0.0141 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 3.7 |
| 3 | Jacob deGrom | 0.0024 | 0.0000 | 0.0060 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 3.3 |
| 4 | Drew Pomeranz | 0.0027 | 0.0000 | 0.0063 | 3.3 | 0.1 | 3.2 |
| 5 | Parker Bridwell | 0.0130 | 0.0000 | 0.0027 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| 6 | Gio Gonzalez | 0.0107 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 |
| 7 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 0.0027 | 0.0000 | 0.0084 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 2.7 |
| 8 | Chris Archer | 0.0042 | 0.0000 | 0.0078 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 2.7 |
| 9 | Robbie Ray | 0.0112 | 0.0000 | 0.0057 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 2.6 |
| 10 | Ervin Santana | 0.0044 | 0.0000 | 0.0084 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Infante | 0.0065 | 0.0000 | 0.0066 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| 2 | José Ruiz | 0.0065 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | Ervin Santana | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0084 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| 4 | Carlos Martinez | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0075 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5 | Clayton Richard | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0130 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 0.0 |
| 6 | Chris Archer | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0078 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 7 | Gerrit Cole | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0107 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 0.0 |
| 8 | Jeff Samardzija | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0209 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 0.0 |
| 9 | Patrick Corbin | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0125 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
| 10 | Zach Davies | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0115 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 0.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | John Brebbia | 0.0065 | 0.0000 | 0.0075 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.9 |
| 2 | Hector Velázquez | 0.0065 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | Aaron Bummer | 0.0065 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | Nick Goody | 0.0065 | 0.0000 | 0.0084 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 5 | Jesen Therrien | 0.0065 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 6 | Tim Mayza | 0.0065 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 7 | Luis Santos | 0.0065 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 8 | Austin Maddox | 0.0065 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 9 | Ricardo Rodríguez | 0.0065 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 10 | Carlos Ramírez | 0.0065 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
Run Rate
Everybody Missed for Run Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gio Gonzalez | 0.0834 |
0.1060
(26.1)
|
0.1151
(33.4)
|
0.1066
(25.2)
|
0.1055
(27.0)
|
| Bartolo Colon | 0.1728 |
0.1177
(29.9)
|
0.1095
(35.4)
|
0.1191
(30.0)
|
0.1162
(29.8)
|
| Jharel Cotton | 0.1608 |
0.1130
(22.0)
|
0.1073
(25.3)
|
0.1166
(20.9)
|
0.1095
(23.1)
|
| Brad Peacock | 0.0842 |
0.1258
(27.6)
|
0.1223
(25.6)
|
0.1244
(25.9)
|
0.1272
(29.2)
|
| Chase Anderson | 0.0826 |
0.1268
(30.3)
|
0.1211
(26.9)
|
0.1289
(30.5)
|
0.1248
(30.0)
|
| Luis Severino | 0.0932 |
0.1156
(24.5)
|
0.1224
(29.7)
|
0.1156
(23.3)
|
0.1155
(25.7)
|
| Chris Tillman | 0.1937 |
0.1231
(27.4)
|
0.1105
(33.1)
|
0.1289
(25.5)
|
0.1173
(29.2)
|
Individual Misses for Run Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Glasnow | 0.1014 | 0.2000 | 27.3 |
| 2 | Ervin Santana | 0.1209 | 0.0984 | 27.2 |
| 3 | Matt Moore | 0.1045 | 0.1468 | 26.4 |
| 4 | Parker Bridwell | 0.1501 | 0.1057 | 26.3 |
| 5 | Corey Kluber | 0.0949 | 0.0721 | 24.7 |
| 6 | Andrew Cashner | 0.1321 | 0.1065 | 24.3 |
| 7 | Kyle Freeland | 0.1385 | 0.1134 | 23.4 |
| 8 | Rick Porcello | 0.1071 | 0.1412 | 22.3 |
| 9 | Travis Wood | 0.1176 | 0.1766 | 21.8 |
| 10 | Jon Lester | 0.0951 | 0.1324 | 21.7 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Ray | 0.1245 | 0.0857 | 31.6 |
| 2 | José Ureña | 0.1352 | 0.1064 | 27.2 |
| 3 | Corey Kluber | 0.0983 | 0.0721 | 27.2 |
| 4 | José Berríos | 0.1505 | 0.1153 | 27.1 |
| 5 | Robert Gsellman | 0.0976 | 0.1548 | 26.6 |
| 6 | Jon Lester | 0.0898 | 0.1324 | 25.8 |
| 7 | Zack Godley | 0.1289 | 0.0973 | 25.3 |
| 8 | Archie Bradley | 0.1269 | 0.0483 | 25.3 |
| 9 | Stephen Strasburg | 0.1047 | 0.0785 | 24.5 |
| 10 | Tanner Roark | 0.0953 | 0.1353 | 24.2 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ervin Santana | 0.1258 | 0.0984 | 30.0 |
| 2 | Corey Kluber | 0.1007 | 0.0721 | 28.0 |
| 3 | Matt Moore | 0.1043 | 0.1468 | 27.8 |
| 4 | Andrew Cashner | 0.1371 | 0.1065 | 26.7 |
| 5 | Tyler Glasnow | 0.1075 | 0.2000 | 26.0 |
| 6 | Jimmy Nelson | 0.1296 | 0.1030 | 24.7 |
| 7 | Parker Bridwell | 0.1462 | 0.1057 | 23.6 |
| 8 | Ubaldo Jiménez | 0.1268 | 0.1682 | 22.1 |
| 9 | Kyle Freeland | 0.1367 | 0.1134 | 21.1 |
| 10 | Chris Sale | 0.1024 | 0.0858 | 20.4 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Bridwell | 0.1540 | 0.1057 | 29.0 |
| 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 0.0954 | 0.2000 | 28.7 |
| 3 | Rick Porcello | 0.0992 | 0.1412 | 27.9 |
| 4 | Travis Wood | 0.1031 | 0.1766 | 27.4 |
| 5 | Kyle Freeland | 0.1404 | 0.1134 | 25.9 |
| 6 | Alex Wood | 0.1128 | 0.0814 | 25.8 |
| 7 | Matt Moore | 0.1046 | 0.1468 | 25.0 |
| 8 | Jon Lester | 0.0895 | 0.1324 | 24.6 |
| 9 | Ervin Santana | 0.1161 | 0.0984 | 24.5 |
| 10 | Anthony Swarzak | 0.1335 | 0.0693 | 22.7 |
Most Unique Misses for Run Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Berríos | 0.1505 | 0.1209 | 0.1153 | 27.1 | 9.0 | 18.1 |
| 2 | Robbie Ray | 0.1245 | 0.1026 | 0.0857 | 31.6 | 17.2 | 14.4 |
| 3 | Tanner Roark | 0.0953 | 0.1122 | 0.1353 | 24.2 | 11.0 | 13.2 |
| 4 | Aaron Nola | 0.1220 | 0.1040 | 0.0967 | 23.6 | 11.2 | 12.4 |
| 5 | Marco Estrada | 0.1048 | 0.1199 | 0.1290 | 12.5 | 0.2 | 12.3 |
| 6 | Patrick Corbin | 0.1327 | 0.1184 | 0.1174 | 19.8 | 8.1 | 11.7 |
| 7 | José Ureña | 0.1352 | 0.1194 | 0.1064 | 27.2 | 15.9 | 11.3 |
| 8 | Robert Gsellman | 0.0976 | 0.1161 | 0.1548 | 26.6 | 16.4 | 10.2 |
| 9 | Seth Lugo | 0.0974 | 0.1244 | 0.1307 | 10.7 | 1.1 | 9.6 |
| 10 | Bronson Arroyo | 0.1143 | 0.1425 | 0.1832 | 19.4 | 10.3 | 9.1 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Sale | 0.1024 | 0.0913 | 0.0858 | 20.4 | 12.3 | 8.1 |
| 2 | Dylan Bundy | 0.1275 | 0.1144 | 0.1175 | 12.1 | 4.1 | 8.1 |
| 3 | Marco Estrada | 0.1314 | 0.1199 | 0.1290 | 7.9 | 0.2 | 7.7 |
| 4 | Luis Perdomo | 0.1195 | 0.1263 | 0.1355 | 6.2 | 0.2 | 6.0 |
| 5 | Rafael Montero | 0.1206 | 0.1276 | 0.1364 | 4.6 | 0.1 | 4.5 |
| 6 | Asher Wojciechowski | 0.1153 | 0.1289 | 0.1720 | 13.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 |
| 7 | Jimmy Nelson | 0.1296 | 0.1228 | 0.1030 | 24.7 | 20.9 | 3.8 |
| 8 | Darren O'Day | 0.1111 | 0.0946 | 0.1000 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 3.6 |
| 9 | Zach Davies | 0.1212 | 0.1155 | 0.1102 | 15.0 | 11.6 | 3.4 |
| 10 | Jaime García | 0.1040 | 0.1075 | 0.1278 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 3.4 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marco Estrada | 0.1083 | 0.1199 | 0.1290 | 8.2 | 0.2 | 8.0 |
| 2 | Jhoulys Chacín | 0.1230 | 0.1171 | 0.1072 | 20.2 | 14.4 | 5.7 |
| 3 | Luis Perdomo | 0.1331 | 0.1263 | 0.1355 | 5.9 | 0.2 | 5.7 |
| 4 | Travis Wood | 0.1031 | 0.1176 | 0.1766 | 27.4 | 21.8 | 5.6 |
| 5 | Rick Porcello | 0.0992 | 0.1071 | 0.1412 | 27.9 | 22.3 | 5.6 |
| 6 | José Ureña | 0.1252 | 0.1194 | 0.1064 | 21.3 | 15.9 | 5.4 |
| 7 | Alex Wood | 0.1128 | 0.1060 | 0.0814 | 25.8 | 20.6 | 5.2 |
| 8 | Jason Hammel | 0.1097 | 0.1177 | 0.1356 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 5.1 |
| 9 | Rafael Montero | 0.1347 | 0.1276 | 0.1364 | 4.9 | 0.1 | 4.8 |
| 10 | Jake Arrieta | 0.0863 | 0.0947 | 0.1160 | 13.5 | 8.7 | 4.7 |
Earned Run Rate
Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | 0.0895 |
0.1232
(29.5)
|
0.1129
(22.5)
|
0.1277
(32.1)
|
0.1187
(27.0)
|
| Gio Gonzalez | 0.0798 |
0.0979
(21.7)
|
0.1080
(30.3)
|
0.0973
(20.6)
|
0.0985
(22.9)
|
| Bartolo Colon | 0.1590 |
0.1095
(26.8)
|
0.1023
(31.2)
|
0.1101
(26.8)
|
0.1088
(26.6)
|
| Marcus Stroman | 0.0827 |
0.1008
(21.9)
|
0.1082
(28.4)
|
0.0984
(19.3)
|
0.1032
(24.6)
|
| Chris Tillman | 0.1824 |
0.1146
(26.5)
|
0.1076
(29.5)
|
0.1201
(24.4)
|
0.1091
(28.5)
|
| Chase Anderson | 0.0756 |
0.1186
(29.2)
|
0.1116
(25.4)
|
0.1206
(29.8)
|
0.1167
(28.6)
|
| Luis Severino | 0.0817 |
0.1072
(26.4)
|
0.1148
(32.5)
|
0.1066
(25.2)
|
0.1079
(27.6)
|
| Ubaldo Jiménez | 0.1667 |
0.1180
(26.2)
|
0.1187
(25.6)
|
0.1176
(27.0)
|
0.1185
(25.3)
|
| Matt Harvey | 0.1601 |
0.0999
(22.4)
|
0.0990
(22.6)
|
0.0996
(22.9)
|
0.1002
(21.9)
|
Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ervin Santana | 0.1129 | 0.0891 | 27.6 |
| 2 | Brad Peacock | 0.1174 | 0.0806 | 24.6 |
| 3 | Parker Bridwell | 0.1409 | 0.0996 | 24.4 |
| 4 | Matt Moore | 0.0966 | 0.1354 | 24.2 |
| 5 | Corey Kluber | 0.0878 | 0.0656 | 23.6 |
| 6 | Kyle Freeland | 0.1290 | 0.1032 | 23.4 |
| 7 | Jordan Zimmermann | 0.1121 | 0.1515 | 22.2 |
| 8 | Tyler Glasnow | 0.0942 | 0.1738 | 21.8 |
| 9 | Jimmy Nelson | 0.1142 | 0.0934 | 21.1 |
| 10 | Richard Bleier | 0.1201 | 0.0528 | 20.0 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Ray | 0.1132 | 0.0782 | 28.9 |
| 2 | José Ureña | 0.1301 | 0.0994 | 28.4 |
| 3 | Jordan Zimmermann | 0.1040 | 0.1515 | 27.8 |
| 4 | José Berríos | 0.1383 | 0.1023 | 27.5 |
| 5 | Corey Kluber | 0.0904 | 0.0656 | 25.9 |
| 6 | Zack Godley | 0.1232 | 0.0925 | 24.6 |
| 7 | Stephen Strasburg | 0.0963 | 0.0699 | 24.5 |
| 8 | Archie Bradley | 0.1186 | 0.0483 | 22.9 |
| 9 | Dylan Covey | 0.1130 | 0.1942 | 22.5 |
| 10 | Travis Wood | 0.1040 | 0.1628 | 21.9 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ervin Santana | 0.1170 | 0.0891 | 30.4 |
| 2 | Corey Kluber | 0.0923 | 0.0656 | 26.5 |
| 3 | Matt Moore | 0.0959 | 0.1354 | 25.4 |
| 4 | Jimmy Nelson | 0.1202 | 0.0934 | 24.9 |
| 5 | Brad Peacock | 0.1164 | 0.0806 | 23.6 |
| 6 | Parker Bridwell | 0.1372 | 0.0996 | 22.2 |
| 7 | Kyle Freeland | 0.1273 | 0.1032 | 21.7 |
| 8 | Nick Pivetta | 0.1081 | 0.1524 | 21.6 |
| 9 | Tyler Glasnow | 0.0985 | 0.1738 | 20.7 |
| 10 | Richard Bleier | 0.1171 | 0.0528 | 19.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Bridwell | 0.1445 | 0.0996 | 26.6 |
| 2 | Jordan Zimmermann | 0.1065 | 0.1515 | 25.6 |
| 3 | Brad Peacock | 0.1184 | 0.0806 | 25.6 |
| 4 | Travis Wood | 0.0954 | 0.1628 | 25.4 |
| 5 | Kyle Freeland | 0.1306 | 0.1032 | 25.1 |
| 6 | Ervin Santana | 0.1089 | 0.0891 | 24.9 |
| 7 | Alex Wood | 0.1053 | 0.0749 | 24.2 |
| 8 | Matt Moore | 0.0972 | 0.1354 | 23.0 |
| 9 | Tyler Glasnow | 0.0899 | 0.1738 | 22.8 |
| 10 | Richard Bleier | 0.1232 | 0.0528 | 21.1 |
Most Unique Misses for Earned Run Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Berríos | 0.1383 | 0.1126 | 0.1023 | 27.5 | 11.4 | 16.0 |
| 2 | José Ureña | 0.1301 | 0.1104 | 0.0994 | 28.4 | 13.9 | 14.5 |
| 3 | Marco Estrada | 0.0971 | 0.1128 | 0.1278 | 17.9 | 5.5 | 12.4 |
| 4 | Robbie Ray | 0.1132 | 0.0951 | 0.0782 | 28.9 | 16.7 | 12.2 |
| 5 | Aaron Nola | 0.1109 | 0.0961 | 0.0952 | 16.8 | 6.3 | 10.5 |
| 6 | Zack Godley | 0.1232 | 0.1072 | 0.0925 | 24.6 | 14.3 | 10.3 |
| 7 | Tanner Roark | 0.0909 | 0.1042 | 0.1211 | 16.9 | 6.8 | 10.0 |
| 8 | Bronson Arroyo | 0.1061 | 0.1342 | 0.1801 | 21.1 | 12.1 | 8.9 |
| 9 | Iván Nova | 0.1145 | 0.1035 | 0.1096 | 10.6 | 1.7 | 8.9 |
| 10 | Gio Gonzalez | 0.1080 | 0.0979 | 0.0798 | 30.3 | 21.7 | 8.6 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Bundy | 0.1193 | 0.1071 | 0.1146 | 8.4 | 0.5 | 7.9 |
| 2 | Chris Sale | 0.0943 | 0.0848 | 0.0811 | 17.5 | 10.1 | 7.4 |
| 3 | Rafael Montero | 0.1120 | 0.1193 | 0.1327 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 4.4 |
| 4 | Asher Wojciechowski | 0.1067 | 0.1201 | 0.1613 | 13.2 | 9.2 | 4.0 |
| 5 | Jimmy Nelson | 0.1202 | 0.1142 | 0.0934 | 24.9 | 21.1 | 3.8 |
| 6 | Jaime García | 0.0941 | 0.0989 | 0.1144 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 3.8 |
| 7 | Jake Arrieta | 0.0934 | 0.0873 | 0.0934 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 3.8 |
| 8 | Darren O'Day | 0.1035 | 0.0882 | 0.0958 | 3.6 | 0.1 | 3.5 |
| 9 | Ty Blach | 0.0999 | 0.1041 | 0.1257 | 12.7 | 9.3 | 3.4 |
| 10 | Wade Miley | 0.1105 | 0.1140 | 0.1346 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 3.1 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marco Estrada | 0.1017 | 0.1128 | 0.1278 | 13.7 | 5.5 | 8.2 |
| 2 | Dylan Bundy | 0.0949 | 0.1071 | 0.1146 | 7.4 | 0.5 | 6.9 |
| 3 | Luis Perdomo | 0.1248 | 0.1169 | 0.1187 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 6.3 |
| 4 | Jhoulys Chacín | 0.1157 | 0.1088 | 0.1020 | 17.5 | 11.5 | 6.0 |
| 5 | Travis Wood | 0.0954 | 0.1098 | 0.1628 | 25.4 | 19.6 | 5.9 |
| 6 | Alex Wood | 0.1053 | 0.0976 | 0.0749 | 24.2 | 19.0 | 5.2 |
| 7 | José Ureña | 0.1165 | 0.1104 | 0.0994 | 18.9 | 13.9 | 5.1 |
| 8 | Jason Hammel | 0.1032 | 0.1102 | 0.1318 | 15.7 | 10.8 | 4.9 |
| 9 | Rick Porcello | 0.0931 | 0.0995 | 0.1186 | 14.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 |
| 10 | Ross Stripling | 0.1188 | 0.1067 | 0.1020 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
Win Rate
Everybody Missed for Win Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Ramírez | 0.4074 |
0.0643
(216.3)
|
0.0667
(182.5)
|
0.0839
(201.1)
|
0.0500
(236.2)
|
| José Ureña | 0.4118 |
0.1222
(213.8)
|
0.1143
(181.8)
|
0.0776
(242.5)
|
0.2424
(139.7)
|
| Jason Vargas | 0.5625 |
0.3133
(192.7)
|
0.1818
(252.8)
|
0.3197
(184.2)
|
0.3077
(210.5)
|
| Trevor Bauer | 0.5312 |
0.3371
(149.7)
|
0.2439
(180.5)
|
0.3629
(126.6)
|
0.3125
(181.5)
|
| Zach Davies | 0.5152 |
0.3256
(159.6)
|
0.2500
(178.8)
|
0.3174
(162.2)
|
0.3333
(167.8)
|
| Alex Wood | 0.5926 |
0.2032
(242.6)
|
0.2143
(203.8)
|
0.1610
(265.5)
|
0.2917
(199.3)
|
| Ervin Santana | 0.4848 |
0.3415
(128.8)
|
0.2222
(186.9)
|
0.3368
(128.6)
|
0.3462
(140.2)
|
| Charlie Morton | 0.5600 |
0.3494
(133.5)
|
0.2174
(182.8)
|
0.3649
(120.8)
|
0.3333
(154.4)
|
Individual Misses for Win Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Anderson | 0.1918 | 0.4800 | 167.3 |
| 2 | Matt Moore | 0.3871 | 0.1875 | 153.1 |
| 3 | Zack Godley | 0.0699 | 0.3077 | 152.7 |
| 4 | Brad Peacock | 0.1152 | 0.3824 | 149.0 |
| 5 | Jakob Junis | 0.1343 | 0.4500 | 135.7 |
| 6 | Parker Bridwell | 0.2116 | 0.4762 | 133.0 |
| 7 | Chris Tillman | 0.3398 | 0.0417 | 129.8 |
| 8 | Mike Clevinger | 0.2016 | 0.4444 | 124.8 |
| 9 | Ricky Nolasco | 0.3460 | 0.1818 | 124.7 |
| 10 | Ian Kennedy | 0.3581 | 0.1667 | 121.6 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Pomeranz | 0.1739 | 0.5312 | 230.2 |
| 2 | José Berríos | 0.1429 | 0.5385 | 215.2 |
| 3 | Corey Kluber | 0.3158 | 0.6207 | 200.9 |
| 4 | Robbie Ray | 0.1905 | 0.5357 | 198.8 |
| 5 | Luis Severino | 0.1562 | 0.4516 | 195.0 |
| 6 | Patrick Corbin | 0.1463 | 0.4242 | 191.3 |
| 7 | Carlos Carrasco | 0.2778 | 0.5625 | 190.2 |
| 8 | Parker Bridwell | 0.0769 | 0.4762 | 173.6 |
| 9 | Clayton Kershaw | 0.3750 | 0.6667 | 166.6 |
| 10 | CC Sabathia | 0.2051 | 0.5185 | 166.4 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Anderson | 0.1373 | 0.4800 | 195.4 |
| 2 | Brad Peacock | 0.0914 | 0.3824 | 159.3 |
| 3 | Jakob Junis | 0.0852 | 0.4500 | 154.2 |
| 4 | Nick Pivetta | 0.0639 | 0.3077 | 142.8 |
| 5 | Mike Clevinger | 0.1636 | 0.4444 | 141.4 |
| 6 | Zack Godley | 0.0831 | 0.3077 | 141.3 |
| 7 | Matt Moore | 0.3653 | 0.1875 | 139.9 |
| 8 | Ricky Nolasco | 0.3585 | 0.1818 | 138.5 |
| 9 | José Berríos | 0.3236 | 0.5385 | 132.8 |
| 10 | Corey Kluber | 0.4531 | 0.6207 | 130.8 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack Godley | 0.0606 | 0.3077 | 169.7 |
| 2 | Parker Bridwell | 0.1667 | 0.4762 | 163.9 |
| 3 | Matt Moore | 0.4091 | 0.1875 | 156.4 |
| 4 | Patrick Corbin | 0.2692 | 0.4242 | 147.5 |
| 5 | Jhoulys Chacín | 0.2400 | 0.4062 | 145.2 |
| 6 | Luis Severino | 0.3030 | 0.4516 | 134.8 |
| 7 | CC Sabathia | 0.3333 | 0.5185 | 130.1 |
| 8 | Rick Porcello | 0.5000 | 0.3333 | 126.6 |
| 9 | Chris Tillman | 0.3448 | 0.0417 | 124.1 |
| 10 | Ian Kennedy | 0.3793 | 0.1667 | 123.8 |
Most Unique Misses for Win Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Pomeranz | 0.1739 | 0.4051 | 0.5312 | 230.2 | 97.6 | 132.6 |
| 2 | Germán Márquez | 0.1250 | 0.3420 | 0.3793 | 145.8 | 30.2 | 115.6 |
| 3 | Dylan Bundy | 0.1892 | 0.4060 | 0.4643 | 159.7 | 44.7 | 115.0 |
| 4 | Chris Sale | 0.3333 | 0.5091 | 0.5312 | 129.0 | 23.7 | 105.3 |
| 5 | José Berríos | 0.1429 | 0.3608 | 0.5385 | 215.2 | 113.0 | 102.2 |
| 6 | Robbie Ray | 0.1905 | 0.3874 | 0.5357 | 198.8 | 102.4 | 96.3 |
| 7 | Alex Cobb | 0.1667 | 0.3482 | 0.4138 | 149.0 | 52.9 | 96.1 |
| 8 | Luis Severino | 0.1562 | 0.3266 | 0.4516 | 195.0 | 102.4 | 92.6 |
| 9 | Carlos Carrasco | 0.2778 | 0.4451 | 0.5625 | 190.2 | 98.3 | 92.0 |
| 10 | Corey Kluber | 0.3158 | 0.4842 | 0.6207 | 200.9 | 110.5 | 90.4 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travis Wood | 0.2906 | 0.0726 | 0.1026 | 81.6 | 15.6 | 66.1 |
| 2 | Dylan Bundy | 0.3388 | 0.4060 | 0.4643 | 88.1 | 44.7 | 43.4 |
| 3 | Antonio Senzatela | 0.1488 | 0.2282 | 0.2778 | 73.2 | 31.2 | 41.9 |
| 4 | Ty Blach | 0.1204 | 0.1780 | 0.2353 | 80.0 | 43.6 | 36.4 |
| 5 | Gregory Infante | 0.2245 | 0.0698 | 0.0385 | 42.1 | 5.8 | 36.3 |
| 6 | Trevor Williams | 0.1337 | 0.1931 | 0.2258 | 59.6 | 24.7 | 34.9 |
| 7 | Zack Greinke | 0.3731 | 0.4196 | 0.5312 | 127.2 | 94.1 | 33.2 |
| 8 | Sean Newcomb | 0.3089 | 0.2416 | 0.2105 | 44.5 | 11.6 | 33.0 |
| 9 | Chris Sale | 0.4679 | 0.5091 | 0.5312 | 54.5 | 23.7 | 30.8 |
| 10 | Jimmy Nelson | 0.2836 | 0.3307 | 0.4138 | 95.3 | 64.7 | 30.6 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Archie Bradley | 0.3462 | 0.0957 | 0.0476 | 79.7 | 12.3 | 67.5 |
| 2 | Clayton Richard | 0.1481 | 0.1933 | 0.2500 | 107.6 | 53.6 | 54.1 |
| 3 | Bud Norris | 0.2857 | 0.0922 | 0.0333 | 61.1 | 14.2 | 46.9 |
| 4 | Ross Stripling | 0.2609 | 0.1022 | 0.0612 | 53.5 | 10.7 | 42.8 |
| 5 | Jhoulys Chacín | 0.2400 | 0.2770 | 0.4062 | 145.2 | 103.3 | 41.9 |
| 6 | Jorge De La Rosa | 0.3462 | 0.1424 | 0.0462 | 60.5 | 19.8 | 40.7 |
| 7 | Patrick Corbin | 0.2692 | 0.2966 | 0.4242 | 147.5 | 110.2 | 37.3 |
| 8 | Warwick Saupold | 0.2308 | 0.0835 | 0.0667 | 39.3 | 3.1 | 36.2 |
| 9 | Nick Goody | 0.2245 | 0.0490 | 0.0179 | 40.5 | 5.6 | 34.8 |
| 10 | Chris Rusin | 0.2857 | 0.1663 | 0.0833 | 60.8 | 26.2 | 34.5 |
Loss Rate
Everybody Missed for Loss Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Ramírez | 0.3704 |
0.0661
(188.7)
|
0.0889
(141.5)
|
0.0882
(178.7)
|
0.0500
(204.5)
|
| Jimmy Nelson | 0.2069 |
0.3941
(136.2)
|
0.3250
(124.7)
|
0.4085
(142.3)
|
0.3793
(118.6)
|
| Rick Porcello | 0.5152 |
0.3106
(181.1)
|
0.2250
(209.7)
|
0.3209
(177.4)
|
0.3000
(198.8)
|
| Michael Fulmer | 0.4800 |
0.3138
(112.4)
|
0.1795
(167.2)
|
0.3321
(104.2)
|
0.2963
(130.6)
|
| Corey Kluber | 0.1379 |
0.2931
(120.5)
|
0.2632
(138.7)
|
0.2958
(117.9)
|
0.2903
(111.0)
|
Individual Misses for Loss Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Richard | 0.2246 | 0.4688 | 209.5 |
| 2 | Zack Godley | 0.0753 | 0.3462 | 169.9 |
| 3 | Nick Pivetta | 0.1478 | 0.3846 | 138.3 |
| 4 | Tim Adleman | 0.1242 | 0.3667 | 128.8 |
| 5 | Joe Biagini | 0.0485 | 0.2955 | 127.7 |
| 6 | Ben Lively | 0.1532 | 0.4667 | 116.6 |
| 7 | Ty Blach | 0.1896 | 0.3529 | 113.1 |
| 8 | Jeff Samardzija | 0.3354 | 0.4688 | 113.1 |
| 9 | Andrew Triggs | 0.1181 | 0.5000 | 108.1 |
| 10 | Ervin Santana | 0.3663 | 0.2424 | 107.0 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Richard | 0.1143 | 0.4688 | 258.5 |
| 2 | Jharel Cotton | 0.1000 | 0.4167 | 149.1 |
| 3 | Ty Blach | 0.0909 | 0.3529 | 144.5 |
| 4 | Mike Foltynewicz | 0.1892 | 0.4483 | 142.5 |
| 5 | Masahiro Tanaka | 0.1579 | 0.4000 | 142.0 |
| 6 | Matt Moore | 0.2381 | 0.4688 | 140.2 |
| 7 | Derek Holland | 0.2059 | 0.4828 | 140.0 |
| 8 | Daniel Gossett | 0.2227 | 0.6111 | 138.8 |
| 9 | Danny Duffy | 0.1395 | 0.4167 | 136.4 |
| 10 | Bartolo Colon | 0.2368 | 0.5000 | 136.0 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Pivetta | 0.0777 | 0.3846 | 182.8 |
| 2 | Ty Blach | 0.1225 | 0.3529 | 163.7 |
| 3 | Zack Godley | 0.0960 | 0.3462 | 160.7 |
| 4 | Tim Adleman | 0.0813 | 0.3667 | 154.8 |
| 5 | Ben Lively | 0.0833 | 0.4667 | 144.9 |
| 6 | Rafael Montero | 0.0848 | 0.3235 | 134.7 |
| 7 | Joe Biagini | 0.0472 | 0.2955 | 131.5 |
| 8 | Parker Bridwell | 0.4141 | 0.1429 | 130.4 |
| 9 | Ervin Santana | 0.3868 | 0.2424 | 119.4 |
| 10 | Matt Moore | 0.3343 | 0.4688 | 111.1 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Richard | 0.1481 | 0.4688 | 283.2 |
| 2 | Zack Godley | 0.0606 | 0.3462 | 185.0 |
| 3 | Jeff Samardzija | 0.3103 | 0.4688 | 142.2 |
| 4 | Joe Biagini | 0.0500 | 0.2955 | 131.8 |
| 5 | Andrew Triggs | 0.0476 | 0.5000 | 130.7 |
| 6 | Miguel González | 0.3200 | 0.4815 | 116.9 |
| 7 | Madison Bumgarner | 0.2812 | 0.5294 | 115.9 |
| 8 | Daniel Gossett | 0.3462 | 0.6111 | 113.6 |
| 9 | Yu Darvish | 0.2500 | 0.3871 | 112.3 |
| 10 | Patrick Corbin | 0.2692 | 0.3939 | 110.8 |
Most Unique Misses for Loss Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jason Vargas | 0.1364 | 0.3360 | 0.3438 | 116.5 | 5.9 | 110.6 |
| 2 | Chad Kuhl | 0.1471 | 0.3464 | 0.3548 | 105.1 | 5.8 | 99.3 |
| 3 | Jharel Cotton | 0.1000 | 0.3096 | 0.4167 | 149.1 | 60.7 | 88.4 |
| 4 | Alex Cobb | 0.1667 | 0.3541 | 0.3448 | 92.7 | 6.8 | 85.9 |
| 5 | Mike Foltynewicz | 0.1892 | 0.3663 | 0.4483 | 142.5 | 56.8 | 85.6 |
| 6 | Adalberto Mejía | 0.0833 | 0.3411 | 0.3333 | 87.2 | 3.4 | 83.8 |
| 7 | Luis Perdomo | 0.2000 | 0.3897 | 0.3793 | 90.3 | 7.4 | 82.9 |
| 8 | Danny Duffy | 0.1395 | 0.3283 | 0.4167 | 136.4 | 53.9 | 82.4 |
| 9 | Masahiro Tanaka | 0.1579 | 0.3160 | 0.4000 | 142.0 | 63.2 | 78.8 |
| 10 | Carlos Martinez | 0.1818 | 0.3260 | 0.3438 | 93.3 | 15.3 | 78.0 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevor Cahill | 0.3862 | 0.0996 | 0.1429 | 90.4 | 16.5 | 73.8 |
| 2 | Ty Blach | 0.1225 | 0.1896 | 0.3529 | 163.7 | 113.1 | 50.6 |
| 3 | Travis Wood | 0.3961 | 0.0740 | 0.1795 | 91.8 | 46.0 | 45.7 |
| 4 | Parker Bridwell | 0.4141 | 0.3163 | 0.1429 | 130.4 | 85.3 | 45.1 |
| 5 | Nick Pivetta | 0.0777 | 0.1478 | 0.3846 | 182.8 | 138.3 | 44.5 |
| 6 | Trevor Williams | 0.1634 | 0.2258 | 0.2903 | 85.4 | 41.5 | 43.9 |
| 7 | José Ureña | 0.0831 | 0.1344 | 0.2059 | 93.3 | 51.8 | 41.5 |
| 8 | Ubaldo Jiménez | 0.2449 | 0.2981 | 0.3548 | 75.3 | 36.8 | 38.4 |
| 9 | Jordan Lyles | 0.3774 | 0.2563 | 0.1316 | 77.7 | 40.4 | 37.3 |
| 10 | Robert Stephenson | 0.1234 | 0.2115 | 0.2400 | 47.0 | 11.0 | 36.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jakob Junis | 0.3704 | 0.1589 | 0.1500 | 89.0 | 3.7 | 85.3 |
| 2 | Clayton Richard | 0.1481 | 0.2246 | 0.4688 | 283.2 | 209.5 | 73.7 |
| 3 | Robert Stephenson | 0.4583 | 0.2115 | 0.2400 | 80.0 | 11.0 | 69.0 |
| 4 | Alex Wood | 0.2917 | 0.1804 | 0.1111 | 105.0 | 42.5 | 62.6 |
| 5 | Archie Bradley | 0.3077 | 0.0838 | 0.0476 | 72.7 | 10.5 | 62.2 |
| 6 | Ross Stripling | 0.3043 | 0.1053 | 0.1020 | 58.6 | 1.0 | 57.7 |
| 7 | Warwick Saupold | 0.3077 | 0.1000 | 0.0444 | 71.1 | 15.5 | 55.5 |
| 8 | Bud Norris | 0.3214 | 0.0935 | 0.1000 | 56.6 | 1.8 | 54.8 |
| 9 | Brent Suter | 0.2500 | 0.0925 | 0.0909 | 51.0 | 0.5 | 50.5 |
| 10 | Chase Anderson | 0.3333 | 0.2376 | 0.1600 | 93.2 | 44.1 | 49.1 |
Save Rate
Everybody Missed for Save Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Knebel | 0.5132 |
0.0449
(143.7)
|
0.0303
(155.6)
|
0.0523
(140.5)
|
0.0370
(147.1)
|
| Héctor Neris | 0.3514 |
0.1030
(78.5)
|
0.0400
(106.3)
|
0.1692
(56.3)
|
0.0286
(103.3)
|
| Bud Norris | 0.3167 |
0.0000
(83.7)
|
0.0263
(83.1)
|
0.0000
(82.9)
|
0.0000
(84.6)
|
| Brad Brach | 0.2687 |
0.0146
(69.0)
|
0.0400
(68.6)
|
0.0000
(72.2)
|
0.0317
(65.2)
|
| Sean Doolittle | 0.4528 |
0.1267
(63.6)
|
0.1562
(62.5)
|
0.1661
(55.3)
|
0.0909
(71.3)
|
| Felipe Vázquez | 0.2877 |
0.0259
(77.6)
|
0.0385
(81.0)
|
0.0219
(77.9)
|
0.0299
(77.3)
|
| Brad Hand | 0.2917 |
0.0353
(78.7)
|
0.0208
(90.7)
|
0.0563
(71.3)
|
0.0132
(86.6)
|
Individual Misses for Save Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Robertson | 0.5679 | 0.2295 | 90.2 |
| 2 | Ryan Madson | 0.3978 | 0.0333 | 80.5 |
| 3 | Jeremy Jeffress | 0.2203 | 0.0000 | 65.9 |
| 4 | Luke Gregerson | 0.2499 | 0.0154 | 62.5 |
| 5 | Andrew Miller | 0.2833 | 0.0351 | 61.3 |
| 6 | Alex Colomé | 0.5138 | 0.7231 | 57.9 |
| 7 | Tony Watson | 0.3292 | 0.1408 | 55.7 |
| 8 | Ken Giles | 0.3154 | 0.5397 | 54.6 |
| 9 | Raisel Iglesias | 0.2680 | 0.4444 | 53.0 |
| 10 | Fernando Rodney | 0.4163 | 0.6393 | 50.8 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Colomé | 0.3158 | 0.7231 | 120.3 |
| 2 | Raisel Iglesias | 0.0882 | 0.4444 | 115.4 |
| 3 | Ken Giles | 0.1569 | 0.5397 | 99.7 |
| 4 | Kelvin Herrera | 0.0741 | 0.4062 | 91.4 |
| 5 | Edwin Díaz | 0.2121 | 0.5152 | 90.0 |
| 6 | Fernando Rodney | 0.3061 | 0.6393 | 81.8 |
| 7 | Brandon Kintzler | 0.1622 | 0.4028 | 75.3 |
| 8 | Roberto Osuna | 0.3148 | 0.5909 | 73.9 |
| 9 | Blake Treinen | 0.0208 | 0.2222 | 72.2 |
| 10 | Wade Davis | 0.2750 | 0.5424 | 69.7 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Watson | 0.5564 | 0.1408 | 122.7 |
| 2 | Greg Holland | 0.2673 | 0.6721 | 93.7 |
| 3 | Alex Colomé | 0.4213 | 0.7231 | 83.1 |
| 4 | Cam Bedrosian | 0.5061 | 0.1250 | 73.6 |
| 5 | Ryan Madson | 0.3600 | 0.0333 | 72.9 |
| 6 | David Robertson | 0.4992 | 0.2295 | 72.8 |
| 7 | Sam Dyson | 0.5164 | 0.2545 | 69.7 |
| 8 | Andrew Miller | 0.3016 | 0.0351 | 66.5 |
| 9 | Ryan Pressly | 0.2387 | 0.0000 | 61.7 |
| 10 | Seunghwan Oh | 0.5475 | 0.3226 | 61.0 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raisel Iglesias | 0.0000 | 0.4444 | 136.0 |
| 2 | Jeremy Jeffress | 0.4286 | 0.0000 | 126.4 |
| 3 | David Robertson | 0.6379 | 0.2295 | 107.8 |
| 4 | Luke Gregerson | 0.3729 | 0.0154 | 94.0 |
| 5 | Ryan Madson | 0.4348 | 0.0333 | 87.9 |
| 6 | Héctor Rondón | 0.3607 | 0.0000 | 85.5 |
| 7 | Santiago Casilla | 0.5660 | 0.2540 | 80.8 |
| 8 | Ken Giles | 0.2143 | 0.5397 | 80.4 |
| 9 | Edwin Díaz | 0.2368 | 0.5152 | 77.4 |
| 10 | Kelvin Herrera | 0.1127 | 0.4062 | 76.0 |
Most Unique Misses for Save Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wade Davis | 0.2750 | 0.5421 | 0.5424 | 69.7 | 0.7 | 69.0 |
| 2 | Kelvin Herrera | 0.0741 | 0.3108 | 0.4062 | 91.4 | 23.9 | 67.5 |
| 3 | Brandon Maurer | 0.1020 | 0.3236 | 0.3235 | 64.7 | 0.8 | 63.8 |
| 4 | Alex Colomé | 0.3158 | 0.5138 | 0.7231 | 120.3 | 57.9 | 62.3 |
| 5 | Raisel Iglesias | 0.0882 | 0.2680 | 0.4444 | 115.4 | 53.0 | 62.3 |
| 6 | Blake Treinen | 0.0208 | 0.1868 | 0.2222 | 72.2 | 10.5 | 61.7 |
| 7 | Edwin Díaz | 0.2121 | 0.3892 | 0.5152 | 90.0 | 34.2 | 55.9 |
| 8 | Brandon Kintzler | 0.1622 | 0.2956 | 0.4028 | 75.3 | 30.0 | 45.3 |
| 9 | Ken Giles | 0.1569 | 0.3154 | 0.5397 | 99.7 | 54.6 | 45.1 |
| 10 | Roberto Osuna | 0.3148 | 0.4551 | 0.5909 | 73.9 | 33.0 | 40.9 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Watson | 0.5564 | 0.3292 | 0.1408 | 122.7 | 55.7 | 67.0 |
| 2 | Greg Holland | 0.2673 | 0.5006 | 0.6721 | 93.7 | 39.6 | 54.2 |
| 3 | Cam Bedrosian | 0.5061 | 0.2722 | 0.1250 | 73.6 | 28.6 | 45.0 |
| 4 | Santiago Casilla | 0.0327 | 0.3042 | 0.2540 | 55.7 | 13.8 | 41.9 |
| 5 | Seunghwan Oh | 0.5475 | 0.4089 | 0.3226 | 61.0 | 23.6 | 37.4 |
| 6 | Neftalí Feliz | 0.4448 | 0.2602 | 0.1633 | 56.4 | 19.6 | 36.8 |
| 7 | Trevor Rosenthal | 0.0000 | 0.2562 | 0.2200 | 43.2 | 7.9 | 35.3 |
| 8 | Brandon Maurer | 0.4501 | 0.3236 | 0.3235 | 35.4 | 0.8 | 34.5 |
| 9 | Sam Dyson | 0.5164 | 0.3865 | 0.2545 | 69.7 | 35.1 | 34.5 |
| 10 | Brad Ziegler | 0.0000 | 0.1619 | 0.1887 | 38.5 | 5.0 | 33.5 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raisel Iglesias | 0.0000 | 0.2680 | 0.4444 | 136.0 | 53.0 | 83.0 |
| 2 | Santiago Casilla | 0.5660 | 0.3042 | 0.2540 | 80.8 | 13.8 | 67.0 |
| 3 | Jeremy Jeffress | 0.4286 | 0.2203 | 0.0000 | 126.4 | 65.9 | 60.5 |
| 4 | Blake Treinen | 0.0147 | 0.1868 | 0.2222 | 67.4 | 10.5 | 56.9 |
| 5 | Trevor Rosenthal | 0.5254 | 0.2562 | 0.2200 | 61.7 | 7.9 | 53.8 |
| 6 | Kelvin Herrera | 0.1127 | 0.3108 | 0.4062 | 76.0 | 23.9 | 52.1 |
| 7 | Edwin Díaz | 0.2368 | 0.3892 | 0.5152 | 77.4 | 34.2 | 43.2 |
| 8 | Héctor Rondón | 0.3607 | 0.2010 | 0.0000 | 85.5 | 48.4 | 37.1 |
| 9 | Brandon Maurer | 0.1970 | 0.3236 | 0.3235 | 33.8 | 0.8 | 32.9 |
| 10 | Luke Gregerson | 0.3729 | 0.2499 | 0.0154 | 94.0 | 62.5 | 31.5 |
Hold Rate
Everybody Missed for Hold Rate
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Miller | 0.4737 |
0.1391
(82.0)
|
0.2115
(72.2)
|
0.1411
(80.3)
|
0.0000
(101.5)
|
| Ryan Madson | 0.4167 |
0.0941
(71.0)
|
0.1489
(66.1)
|
0.0952
(69.6)
|
0.0000
(78.6)
|
| Anthony Swarzak | 0.3857 |
0.1969
(57.7)
|
0.0833
(101.9)
|
0.1428
(72.5)
|
0.0000
(99.4)
|
| Tommy Hunter | 0.4262 |
0.1488
(63.6)
|
0.1176
(78.1)
|
0.1460
(63.1)
|
0.0000
(84.1)
|
Individual Misses for Hold Rate
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Ureña | 0.2829 | 0.0000 | 203.7 |
| 2 | Brent Suter | 0.3704 | 0.0000 | 125.8 |
| 3 | Brad Peacock | 0.1967 | 0.0000 | 106.5 |
| 4 | JC Ramírez | 0.1673 | 0.0000 | 102.7 |
| 5 | Ross Stripling | 0.4172 | 0.1020 | 95.3 |
| 6 | Trevor Williams | 0.1436 | 0.0000 | 91.2 |
| 7 | Ty Blach | 0.1332 | 0.0000 | 91.1 |
| 8 | Rafael Montero | 0.1476 | 0.0000 | 80.3 |
| 9 | Alex Wood | 0.1608 | 0.0370 | 75.0 |
| 10 | Peter Moylan | 0.0000 | 0.3038 | 74.2 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Devenski | 0.1053 | 0.4032 | 104.9 |
| 2 | Archie Bradley | 0.0750 | 0.3968 | 103.2 |
| 3 | Jacob Barnes | 0.0870 | 0.3425 | 88.0 |
| 4 | José Ramírez | 0.1111 | 0.3971 | 82.5 |
| 5 | Yusmeiro Petit | 0.0625 | 0.2500 | 78.4 |
| 6 | Taylor Rogers | 0.1389 | 0.4348 | 78.2 |
| 7 | JC Ramírez | 0.1556 | 0.0000 | 75.4 |
| 8 | Ryan Tepera | 0.0417 | 0.2329 | 71.8 |
| 9 | Kirby Yates | 0.0625 | 0.3226 | 67.9 |
| 10 | Joe Biagini | 0.1316 | 0.2273 | 67.0 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Ureña | 0.1938 | 0.0000 | 143.0 |
| 2 | JC Ramírez | 0.1986 | 0.0000 | 125.4 |
| 3 | Brent Suter | 0.2331 | 0.0000 | 80.7 |
| 4 | Brad Peacock | 0.1335 | 0.0000 | 74.9 |
| 5 | Peter Moylan | 0.0000 | 0.3038 | 72.9 |
| 6 | Trevor Williams | 0.1090 | 0.0000 | 72.3 |
| 7 | Mike Minor | 0.0291 | 0.2615 | 70.2 |
| 8 | Francisco Liriano | 0.0000 | 0.1579 | 67.7 |
| 9 | Ty Blach | 0.0913 | 0.0000 | 65.7 |
| 10 | Kirby Yates | 0.0487 | 0.3226 | 62.4 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Devenski | 0.0000 | 0.4032 | 109.2 |
| 2 | Archie Bradley | 0.0000 | 0.3968 | 98.4 |
| 3 | Nick Vincent | 0.0000 | 0.4203 | 95.0 |
| 4 | Taylor Rogers | 0.0000 | 0.4348 | 89.4 |
| 5 | Joe Biagini | 0.0000 | 0.2273 | 87.7 |
| 6 | José Ramírez | 0.0000 | 0.3971 | 87.6 |
| 7 | Jacob Barnes | 0.0000 | 0.3425 | 86.6 |
| 8 | Bryan Shaw | 0.0000 | 0.3291 | 84.7 |
| 9 | Pedro Báez | 0.0000 | 0.3485 | 81.5 |
| 10 | Kyle Barraclough | 0.0000 | 0.3333 | 78.9 |
Most Unique Misses for Hold Rate
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Archie Bradley | 0.0750 | 0.4417 | 0.3968 | 103.2 | 12.6 | 90.6 |
| 2 | Chris Devenski | 0.1053 | 0.2777 | 0.4032 | 104.9 | 40.2 | 64.7 |
| 3 | Drew Pomeranz | 0.1087 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 55.4 | 1.2 | 54.2 |
| 4 | Dylan Bundy | 0.1081 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 51.8 | 1.1 | 50.7 |
| 5 | Mychal Givens | 0.1628 | 0.2898 | 0.3043 | 55.3 | 5.1 | 50.2 |
| 6 | Ryan Tepera | 0.0417 | 0.1597 | 0.2329 | 71.8 | 23.9 | 48.0 |
| 7 | Carlos Martinez | 0.0909 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 48.9 | 1.4 | 47.6 |
| 8 | José Ramírez | 0.1111 | 0.2594 | 0.3971 | 82.5 | 35.9 | 46.6 |
| 9 | Luis Severino | 0.0938 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 46.9 | 1.2 | 45.6 |
| 10 | Carl Edwards Jr. | 0.1481 | 0.2895 | 0.3425 | 59.8 | 14.3 | 45.5 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Archie Bradley | 0.2592 | 0.4417 | 0.3968 | 38.8 | 12.6 | 26.3 |
| 2 | JC Ramírez | 0.1986 | 0.1673 | 0.0000 | 125.4 | 102.7 | 22.7 |
| 3 | Anthony Swarzak | 0.1428 | 0.1969 | 0.3857 | 72.5 | 57.7 | 14.8 |
| 4 | Shane Greene | 0.0973 | 0.1429 | 0.1972 | 27.2 | 15.8 | 11.4 |
| 5 | Yusmeiro Petit | 0.0974 | 0.1302 | 0.2500 | 52.7 | 43.0 | 9.8 |
| 6 | Brett Cecil | 0.2646 | 0.2349 | 0.1918 | 21.2 | 11.5 | 9.7 |
| 7 | César Valdez | 0.0583 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 8.7 | 0.2 | 8.4 |
| 8 | Chris Rusin | 0.0795 | 0.1095 | 0.2000 | 39.7 | 31.3 | 8.4 |
| 9 | Mychal Givens | 0.2603 | 0.2898 | 0.3043 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 7.6 |
| 10 | Sergio Romo | 0.2787 | 0.2501 | 0.2000 | 18.4 | 10.9 | 7.6 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Archie Bradley | 0.0000 | 0.4417 | 0.3968 | 98.4 | 12.6 | 85.8 |
| 2 | Pedro Báez | 0.0000 | 0.3338 | 0.3485 | 81.5 | 4.6 | 76.9 |
| 3 | Mychal Givens | 0.0000 | 0.2898 | 0.3043 | 77.7 | 5.1 | 72.7 |
| 4 | Chris Devenski | 0.0000 | 0.2777 | 0.4032 | 109.2 | 40.2 | 69.1 |
| 5 | Bryan Shaw | 0.0000 | 0.2569 | 0.3291 | 84.7 | 23.0 | 61.7 |
| 6 | Nick Vincent | 0.0000 | 0.2898 | 0.4203 | 95.0 | 34.6 | 60.4 |
| 7 | Carl Edwards Jr. | 0.0000 | 0.2895 | 0.3425 | 74.6 | 14.3 | 60.4 |
| 8 | Ryan Buchter | 0.0000 | 0.2729 | 0.2817 | 60.1 | 2.8 | 57.3 |
| 9 | Hunter Strickland | 0.0000 | 0.2725 | 0.3088 | 67.3 | 10.2 | 57.2 |
| 10 | Matt Barnes | 0.0000 | 0.2494 | 0.3000 | 69.6 | 15.0 | 54.6 |
ERA
Everybody Missed for ERA
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | 3.4020 |
4.9539
(1338.0)
|
4.4056
(1018.9)
|
5.1015
(1444.8)
|
4.8045
(1231.7)
|
| Tyler Glasnow | 7.6935 |
3.7362
(1100.7)
|
4.0068
(989.1)
|
3.8646
(1060.2)
|
3.6049
(1141.2)
|
| Jeremy Guthrie | 135.0000 |
5.2560
(1552.7)
|
4.7368
(1557.8)
|
5.2515
(1552.7)
|
4.4370
(1562.6)
|
| Gio Gonzalez | 2.9552 |
3.8005
(987.4)
|
4.1530
(1357.5)
|
3.7449
(944.8)
|
3.8572
(1032.9)
|
| Bartolo Colon | 6.4825 |
4.2050
(1249.9)
|
3.8448
(1421.8)
|
4.2076
(1245.6)
|
4.2026
(1252.5)
|
| Marcus Stroman | 3.0896 |
3.8470
(922.5)
|
4.0663
(1184.6)
|
3.7291
(827.6)
|
3.9668
(1021.1)
|
| Chris Tillman | 7.8387 |
4.5165
(1320.2)
|
4.0784
(1472.6)
|
4.7206
(1227.8)
|
4.3114
(1412.0)
|
| Chase Anderson | 2.7382 |
4.6783
(1302.3)
|
4.2600
(1118.4)
|
4.7163
(1326.2)
|
4.6396
(1279.4)
|
| Corey Kluber | 2.2537 |
3.2622
(1054.5)
|
3.2927
(1152.0)
|
3.4179
(1178.7)
|
3.1054
(931.5)
|
| Luis Severino | 2.9793 |
4.1466
(1187.0)
|
4.4118
(1469.0)
|
4.0902
(1146.0)
|
4.2039
(1230.7)
|
| Jordan Zimmermann | 6.0750 |
4.3439
(985.7)
|
3.9041
(1231.5)
|
4.5417
(841.7)
|
4.1442
(1129.2)
|
| Ubaldo Jiménez | 6.8131 |
4.7273
(1125.6)
|
4.6616
(1106.7)
|
4.6469
(1175.1)
|
4.8100
(1073.1)
|
| Matt Harvey | 6.7014 |
3.7911
(1104.1)
|
3.7143
(1096.2)
|
3.7530
(1118.7)
|
3.8298
(1088.1)
|
Individual Misses for ERA
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ervin Santana | 4.4305 | 3.2792 | 1296.0 |
| 2 | Parker Bridwell | 5.8657 | 3.6446 | 1264.3 |
| 3 | Matt Moore | 3.7408 | 5.5239 | 1133.2 |
| 4 | Brad Peacock | 4.6486 | 3.0000 | 1090.5 |
| 5 | Jimmy Nelson | 4.5716 | 3.4905 | 1040.8 |
| 6 | Kyle Freeland | 5.2595 | 4.0962 | 1040.2 |
| 7 | Travis Wood | 4.3187 | 6.7979 | 928.9 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Ray | 4.4417 | 2.8889 | 1327.7 |
| 2 | José Berríos | 5.5519 | 3.8924 | 1295.6 |
| 3 | José Ureña | 5.1114 | 3.8193 | 1256.7 |
| 4 | Zack Godley | 4.7955 | 3.3677 | 1173.4 |
| 5 | Stephen Strasburg | 3.5607 | 2.5152 | 1043.9 |
| 6 | Travis Wood | 3.9857 | 6.7979 | 1032.7 |
| 7 | Archie Bradley | 4.7093 | 1.7260 | 993.8 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ervin Santana | 4.5410 | 3.2792 | 1395.0 |
| 2 | Jimmy Nelson | 4.8010 | 3.4905 | 1210.8 |
| 3 | Matt Moore | 3.6675 | 5.5239 | 1187.8 |
| 4 | Parker Bridwell | 5.6173 | 3.6446 | 1144.1 |
| 5 | Brad Peacock | 4.5361 | 3.0000 | 1031.3 |
| 6 | Kyle Freeland | 5.1078 | 4.0962 | 938.7 |
| 7 | Nick Pivetta | 4.2285 | 6.0226 | 841.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Bridwell | 6.1227 | 3.6446 | 1390.0 |
| 2 | Ervin Santana | 4.3177 | 3.2792 | 1197.2 |
| 3 | Travis Wood | 3.7088 | 6.7979 | 1195.5 |
| 4 | Brad Peacock | 4.7647 | 3.0000 | 1153.0 |
| 5 | Kyle Freeland | 5.4162 | 4.0962 | 1147.0 |
| 6 | Matt Moore | 3.8160 | 5.5239 | 1075.0 |
| 7 | Alex Wood | 4.0865 | 2.7177 | 1053.5 |
Most Unique Misses for ERA
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Berríos | 5.5519 | 4.4311 | 3.8924 | 1295.6 | 546.6 | 749.0 |
| 2 | José Ureña | 5.1114 | 4.3428 | 3.8193 | 1256.7 | 631.5 | 625.2 |
| 3 | Robbie Ray | 4.4417 | 3.6795 | 2.8889 | 1327.7 | 757.6 | 570.1 |
| 4 | Marco Estrada | 3.5954 | 4.3234 | 4.9839 | 761.5 | 251.3 | 510.1 |
| 5 | Aaron Nola | 4.2520 | 3.6422 | 3.5357 | 803.8 | 315.4 | 488.4 |
| 6 | Tanner Roark | 3.3736 | 4.0476 | 4.6654 | 658.1 | 208.9 | 449.3 |
| 7 | Zack Godley | 4.7955 | 4.2357 | 3.3677 | 1173.4 | 762.8 | 410.6 |
| 8 | Bronson Arroyo | 4.0345 | 5.3240 | 7.3521 | 925.4 | 540.8 | 384.6 |
| 9 | Dylan Covey | 4.4370 | 5.7672 | 7.7143 | 875.6 | 493.9 | 381.7 |
| 10 | Iván Nova | 4.3978 | 4.0198 | 4.1390 | 551.4 | 180.1 | 371.3 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Bundy | 4.6667 | 4.1849 | 4.2436 | 541.6 | 202.4 | 339.2 |
| 2 | Chris Sale | 3.4952 | 3.1453 | 2.8974 | 809.0 | 507.7 | 301.3 |
| 3 | Rafael Montero | 4.4151 | 4.7771 | 5.5210 | 414.2 | 217.4 | 196.8 |
| 4 | Jake Arrieta | 3.5350 | 3.2731 | 3.5287 | 253.9 | 65.7 | 188.1 |
| 5 | Asher Wojciechowski | 4.1607 | 4.8250 | 6.4973 | 553.5 | 369.3 | 184.2 |
| 6 | Jimmy Nelson | 4.8010 | 4.5716 | 3.4905 | 1210.8 | 1040.8 | 170.0 |
| 7 | Zach Davies | 4.3539 | 4.1698 | 3.9042 | 655.7 | 501.8 | 153.8 |
| 8 | Ty Blach | 3.8273 | 4.0465 | 4.7841 | 418.0 | 269.1 | 148.9 |
| 9 | Darren O'Day | 3.9433 | 3.3492 | 3.4309 | 207.6 | 64.0 | 143.6 |
| 10 | Jaime García | 3.5968 | 3.8110 | 4.4140 | 312.6 | 171.2 | 141.4 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marco Estrada | 3.8429 | 4.3234 | 4.9839 | 639.9 | 251.3 | 388.5 |
| 2 | Luis Perdomo | 5.0879 | 4.6783 | 4.6741 | 544.8 | 252.6 | 292.2 |
| 3 | Jhoulys Chacín | 4.6703 | 4.3026 | 3.8928 | 860.3 | 580.2 | 280.1 |
| 4 | Travis Wood | 3.7088 | 4.3187 | 6.7979 | 1195.5 | 928.9 | 266.6 |
| 5 | Alex Wood | 4.0865 | 3.7378 | 2.7177 | 1053.5 | 840.4 | 213.1 |
| 6 | José Ureña | 4.6385 | 4.3428 | 3.8193 | 844.4 | 631.5 | 212.9 |
| 7 | Jason Hammel | 4.0280 | 4.2851 | 5.2902 | 735.8 | 527.8 | 207.9 |
| 8 | Rick Porcello | 3.5478 | 3.7759 | 4.6475 | 666.1 | 462.8 | 203.3 |
| 9 | Anthony Swarzak | 5.0081 | 4.4294 | 2.3276 | 917.4 | 742.5 | 174.9 |
| 10 | Ross Stripling | 4.6918 | 4.1184 | 3.7534 | 390.8 | 216.9 | 173.9 |
WHIP
Everybody Missed for WHIP
| Player | Actual | Aggregate | Marcel | Steamer | ZiPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | 2.0161 |
1.4014
(177.8)
|
1.3356
(188.9)
|
1.4048
(178.2)
|
1.3978
(177.0)
|
| Ervin Santana | 1.1262 |
1.3721
(239.8)
|
1.2673
(174.8)
|
1.3627
(227.7)
|
1.3817
(253.6)
|
| Jeremy Guthrie | 15.0000 |
1.4720
(162.0)
|
1.3889
(162.6)
|
1.4723
(162.0)
|
1.3566
(163.3)
|
| Bartolo Colon | 1.5874 |
1.2762
(181.2)
|
1.2395
(185.8)
|
1.2794
(182.1)
|
1.2729
(179.1)
|
| Derek Holland | 1.7111 |
1.4213
(161.6)
|
1.3425
(192.4)
|
1.4327
(157.4)
|
1.4098
(164.8)
|
| Chris Tillman | 1.8925 |
1.3874
(210.2)
|
1.3105
(231.2)
|
1.4154
(199.8)
|
1.3593
(219.8)
|
| Chase Anderson | 1.0896 |
1.3747
(180.2)
|
1.3333
(173.5)
|
1.3676
(173.5)
|
1.3819
(187.9)
|
| Zack Godley | 1.1419 |
1.3843
(171.8)
|
1.3631
(177.0)
|
1.3759
(163.6)
|
1.3929
(181.2)
|
| Luis Severino | 1.0397 |
1.2980
(227.1)
|
1.3399
(283.0)
|
1.3128
(235.0)
|
1.2829
(220.2)
|
| Corey Kluber | 0.8691 |
1.1258
(224.1)
|
1.1082
(233.3)
|
1.1492
(238.7)
|
1.1022
(210.7)
|
| Wade Miley | 1.7288 |
1.3899
(223.7)
|
1.3755
(212.7)
|
1.3855
(230.3)
|
1.3944
(215.8)
|
| Matt Harvey | 1.6942 |
1.2183
(191.5)
|
1.2381
(170.2)
|
1.2168
(194.1)
|
1.2199
(188.1)
|
Individual Misses for WHIP
Aggregate
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Bridwell | 1.6249 | 1.1983 | 225.5 |
| 2 | Matt Moore | 1.2972 | 1.5315 | 160.1 |
| 3 | Johnny Cueto | 1.1683 | 1.4457 | 159.2 |
| 4 | Chad Green | 1.3344 | 0.7391 | 158.6 |
| 5 | Jordan Montgomery | 1.4363 | 1.2296 | 154.7 |
| 6 | Max Scherzer | 1.0659 | 0.9020 | 152.6 |
| 7 | Jordan Zimmermann | 1.3075 | 1.5500 | 150.3 |
| 8 | Jimmy Nelson | 1.4199 | 1.2490 | 147.4 |
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Berríos | 1.5152 | 1.2288 | 214.1 |
| 2 | Robbie Ray | 1.4065 | 1.1543 | 208.4 |
| 3 | Gio Gonzalez | 1.3418 | 1.1791 | 185.2 |
| 4 | Alex Wood | 1.2915 | 1.0569 | 181.7 |
| 5 | Johnny Cueto | 1.1216 | 1.4457 | 170.3 |
| 6 | Chad Green | 1.3398 | 0.7391 | 167.4 |
| 7 | Jordan Zimmermann | 1.2557 | 1.5500 | 166.2 |
| 8 | Travis Wood | 1.3000 | 1.7340 | 162.6 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Bridwell | 1.6002 | 1.1983 | 211.0 |
| 2 | Matt Moore | 1.2671 | 1.5315 | 187.5 |
| 3 | Jimmy Nelson | 1.4630 | 1.2490 | 175.5 |
| 4 | Rafael Montero | 1.4200 | 1.7479 | 165.5 |
| 5 | Zack Greinke | 1.2488 | 1.0725 | 162.8 |
| 6 | Kevin Gausman | 1.2732 | 1.4946 | 158.6 |
| 7 | Chris Sale | 1.1264 | 0.9705 | 155.7 |
| 8 | Jordan Montgomery | 1.4401 | 1.2296 | 154.2 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Bridwell | 1.6506 | 1.1983 | 241.2 |
| 2 | Johnny Cueto | 1.1268 | 1.4457 | 182.0 |
| 3 | Travis Wood | 1.3022 | 1.7340 | 171.7 |
| 4 | Chad Green | 1.3679 | 0.7391 | 168.7 |
| 5 | Jhoulys Chacín | 1.4514 | 1.2699 | 167.9 |
| 6 | Alex Wood | 1.2811 | 1.0569 | 161.0 |
| 7 | Max Scherzer | 1.0680 | 0.9020 | 159.2 |
| 8 | Jerad Eickhoff | 1.2098 | 1.5234 | 158.8 |
Most Unique Misses for WHIP
Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.
Marcel
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Berríos | 1.5152 | 1.3617 | 1.2288 | 214.1 | 101.4 | 112.7 |
| 2 | Robbie Ray | 1.4065 | 1.2947 | 1.1543 | 208.4 | 114.4 | 94.0 |
| 3 | Dylan Covey | 1.3566 | 1.6440 | 1.6714 | 78.4 | 1.3 | 77.1 |
| 4 | Blake Snell | 1.4579 | 1.3501 | 1.3299 | 103.5 | 28.4 | 75.1 |
| 5 | Aaron Nola | 1.2835 | 1.2098 | 1.2083 | 94.5 | 22.9 | 71.5 |
| 6 | Jake Arrieta | 1.0526 | 1.1724 | 1.2178 | 73.5 | 9.7 | 63.8 |
| 7 | Sean Newcomb | 1.3566 | 1.5518 | 1.5700 | 69.4 | 6.1 | 63.3 |
| 8 | Marco Estrada | 1.1477 | 1.2548 | 1.3817 | 139.3 | 76.7 | 62.5 |
| 9 | José Ureña | 1.4143 | 1.3604 | 1.2731 | 146.5 | 86.2 | 60.3 |
| 10 | Jason Hammel | 1.2079 | 1.3083 | 1.4251 | 125.5 | 68.5 | 57.0 |
Steamer
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Stephenson | 1.4282 | 1.5205 | 1.5827 | 48.8 | 11.7 | 37.1 |
| 2 | Tanner Roark | 1.3601 | 1.3098 | 1.3346 | 40.8 | 5.4 | 35.4 |
| 3 | Kyle Hendricks | 1.2329 | 1.1710 | 1.1885 | 40.7 | 8.1 | 32.6 |
| 4 | Jake Arrieta | 1.2505 | 1.1724 | 1.2178 | 42.2 | 9.7 | 32.5 |
| 5 | Mike Pelfrey | 1.4710 | 1.5232 | 1.5750 | 42.0 | 11.0 | 31.0 |
| 6 | Dylan Bundy | 1.3742 | 1.3273 | 1.1965 | 143.0 | 113.4 | 29.5 |
| 7 | Jimmy Nelson | 1.4630 | 1.4199 | 1.2490 | 175.5 | 147.4 | 28.0 |
| 8 | Matt Moore | 1.2671 | 1.2972 | 1.5315 | 187.5 | 160.1 | 27.4 |
| 9 | Jeff Samardzija | 1.2499 | 1.2143 | 1.1364 | 119.0 | 92.8 | 26.2 |
| 10 | Mike Leake | 1.3362 | 1.2987 | 1.2796 | 65.4 | 39.7 | 25.7 |
ZiPS
| Rank | Player | Proj | Agg | Actual | Error | Agg Err | Unique |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marco Estrada | 1.1701 | 1.2548 | 1.3817 | 139.9 | 76.7 | 63.2 |
| 2 | Jake Arrieta | 1.0957 | 1.1724 | 1.2178 | 59.4 | 9.7 | 49.7 |
| 3 | Jhoulys Chacín | 1.4514 | 1.4037 | 1.2699 | 167.9 | 126.6 | 41.3 |
| 4 | Yu Darvish | 1.2560 | 1.2186 | 1.1625 | 100.7 | 67.2 | 33.5 |
| 5 | Sean Manaea | 1.2466 | 1.2993 | 1.3992 | 79.3 | 47.2 | 32.1 |
| 6 | Warwick Saupold | 1.6107 | 1.5027 | 1.5160 | 37.2 | 5.2 | 32.0 |
| 7 | Zach Davies | 1.2697 | 1.3148 | 1.3537 | 37.5 | 5.9 | 31.6 |
| 8 | Asher Wojciechowski | 1.5521 | 1.4469 | 1.4439 | 40.8 | 9.7 | 31.1 |
| 9 | Erasmo Ramírez | 1.3372 | 1.2861 | 1.1726 | 109.2 | 78.2 | 31.0 |
| 10 | Travis Wood | 1.3022 | 1.3789 | 1.7340 | 171.7 | 141.0 | 30.7 |