2012 Projection Evaluation

Summary

Batting

System	PA raw	wOBA	SO	BB	HR	R	RBI	SB	BABIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System	BF raw	wOBA	ERA	SO	BB	HR	W	L	SV	HLD	BABIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Juan Diaz	643	17	626.0
2	L.J. Hoes	623	1	622.0
3	Eury Pérez	593	5	588.0
4	Clint Robinson	590	4	586.0
5	Xavier Avery	692	107	585.0
6	Kristopher Negrón	581	5	576.0
7	Kevin Mattison	566	5	561.0
8	Ryan Jackson	577	18	559.0
9	Adam Eaton	658	103	555.0
10	Brett Gardner	580	37	542.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brett Gardner	551	37	514.0
2	Bryce Harper	100	597	497.0
3	Norichika Aoki	100	588	488.0
4	Kosuke Fukudome	535	51	484.0
5	Álex González	550	89	461.0
6	Jason Bartlett	555	98	457.0
7	Aubrey Huff	545	95	450.0
8	Yoenis Cespedes	100	540	440.0
9	Lance Berkman	530	97	433.0
10	Hideki Matsui	533	103	430.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brett Gardner	621	37	583.6
2	Lance Berkman	582	97	484.6
3	Jason Bartlett	561	98	462.9
4	Álex González	548	89	458.5
5	Carl Crawford	578	125	453.2
6	Mat Gamel	522	75	447.4
7	Danny Valencia	598	161	437.1
8	Hideki Matsui	537	103	434.4
9	Aubrey Huff	520	95	425.4
10	Troy Tulowitzki	626	203	422.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Henry Alejandro Rodriguez	681	16	665.0
2	Juan Diaz	643	17	626.0
3	Lars Anderson	632	8	624.0
4	Charlie Culberson	646	23	623.0
5	Blake Tekotte	637	15	622.0
6	L.J. Hoes	623	1	622.0
7	Che-Hsuan Lin	628	12	616.0
8	Brandon Allen	629	22	607.0
9	Carlos Triunfel	628	24	604.0
10	Conor Gillaspie	616	20	596.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Yoenis Cespedes	100	612	540	440.0	71.5	368.5
2	Norichika Aoki	100	450	588	488.0	138.2	349.8
3	Jason Kipnis	282	622	672	390.0	50.0	340.0
4	Zack Cozart	222	547	600	378.0	53.5	324.5
5	Bryce Harper	100	409	597	497.0	187.6	309.4
6	Jose Altuve	330	649	630	300.0	19.2	280.8
7	Yonder Alonso	258	531	619	361.0	88.4	272.6
8	Paul Goldschmidt	295	620	587	292.0	32.9	259.1
9	Dustin Ackley	400	680	668	268.0	11.7	256.3
10	Alejandro De Aza	290	544	585	295.0	40.7	254.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Steve Lombardozzi Jr.	137	404	416	279.4	11.7	267.7
2	Brandon Moss	6	269	296	290.1	26.6	263.6
3	Matt Carpenter	87	329	340	253.2	11.1	242.1
4	Luis Alfonso Cruz	3	234	296	292.6	61.8	230.8
5	Todd Frazier	150	368	465	314.7	96.8	217.8
6	Luis Valbuena	71	318	303	232.0	15.5	216.5
7	Joaquin Arias	100	380	344	244.0	36.0	208.0
8	Norichika Aoki	242	450	588	345.5	138.2	207.2
9	Martín Maldonado	1	206	256	255.0	49.5	205.5
10	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	77	279	314	237.1	34.5	202.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Henry Alejandro Rodriguez	681	360	16	665.0	344.4	320.6
2	Lars Anderson	632	318	8	624.0	310.4	313.6
3	Darin Mastroianni	627	314	186	441.0	128.5	312.5
4	Charlie Culberson	646	343	23	623.0	319.9	303.1
5	Eduardo Escobar	629	326	146	483.0	180.1	302.9
6	Blake Tekotte	637	340	15	622.0	324.6	297.4
7	Che-Hsuan Lin	628	334	12	616.0	321.9	294.1
8	Carlos Triunfel	628	334	24	604.0	309.9	294.1
9	Conor Gillaspie	616	324	20	596.0	303.7	292.3
10	Brett Pill	639	351	114	525.0	237.2	287.8

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Alex Rios	0.3629	0.3113 (34.5)	0.3042 (41.3)	0.3162 (33.5)	0.3064 (36.2)
Brandon Moss	0.4039	0.3014 (31.0)	0.2919 (34.9)	0.3100 (29.5)	0.2927 (32.9)
Chase Headley	0.3785	0.3285 (36.5)	0.3242 (42.1)	0.3281 (39.2)	0.3289 (34.7)
Ian Desmond	0.3629	0.2965 (37.5)	0.2962 (39.8)	0.2985 (38.4)	0.2946 (37.4)
Andrew McCutchen	0.4084	0.3543 (37.9)	0.3522 (41.8)	0.3537 (40.6)	0.3549 (36.0)
Austin Jackson	0.3703	0.3077 (40.0)	0.3122 (39.5)	0.3115 (39.8)	0.3039 (41.0)
Yadier Molina	0.3756	0.3203 (32.4)	0.3270 (30.7)	0.3186 (35.3)	0.3219 (30.3)
Dustin Ackley	0.2777	0.3298 (33.3)	0.3281 (29.7)	0.3268 (29.0)	0.3329 (36.8)
Aaron Hill	0.3781	0.3196 (40.6)	0.3103 (49.3)	0.3171 (44.6)	0.3221 (37.5)
Buster Posey	0.4096	0.3527 (36.0)	0.3435 (43.9)	0.3567 (35.7)	0.3488 (37.1)
Edwin Encarnación	0.4015	0.3418 (39.8)	0.3325 (48.2)	0.3424 (41.7)	0.3413 (38.8)
Mike Trout	0.4107	0.3249 (56.2)	0.3079 (69.4)	0.3215 (60.6)	0.3282 (52.7)
Melky Cabrera	0.3886	0.3260 (32.5)	0.3263 (34.2)	0.3238 (35.3)	0.3282 (30.3)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Eric Hosmer	0.3520	0.2939	33.4
2	Adrián González	0.3967	0.3481	31.7
3	Carlos Ruiz	0.3296	0.4020	31.4
4	Adam LaRoche	0.3185	0.3644	31.2
5	Albert Pujols	0.4145	0.3676	29.9
6	Justin Ruggiano	0.2989	0.3879	29.2
7	Casey Kotchman	0.3297	0.2705	28.5

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Michael Young	0.3536	0.2987	31.9
2	Ryan Ludwick	0.3150	0.3746	30.9
3	Michael Saunders	0.2701	0.3199	30.8
4	Chris Davis	0.3072	0.3553	30.3
5	Yoenis Cespedes	0.3206	0.3706	30.2
6	Jonathan Lucroy	0.3019	0.3775	28.2
7	Tyler Colvin	0.3026	0.3586	28.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Albert Pujols	0.4233	0.3676	33.5
2	Adrián González	0.4026	0.3481	33.4
3	Carlos Ruiz	0.3284	0.4020	33.4
4	Adam LaRoche	0.3190	0.3644	33.0
5	Robinson Canó	0.3599	0.3985	30.9
6	Justin Ruggiano	0.2975	0.3879	30.7
7	A.J. Pierzynski	0.3044	0.3537	28.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Eric Hosmer	0.3577	0.2939	38.1
2	Adam LaRoche	0.3179	0.3644	30.1
3	Carlos Ruiz	0.3308	0.4020	30.0
4	Derek Jeter	0.3053	0.3447	29.2
5	Adrián González	0.3909	0.3481	29.2
6	Casey Kotchman	0.3278	0.2705	28.6
7	Justin Ruggiano	0.3004	0.3879	28.0

Most Unique Misses for wOBA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Pedro Álvarez	0.3058	0.3356	0.3387	22.7	3.1	19.6
2	Paul Goldschmidt	0.3334	0.3608	0.3654	22.3	4.0	18.3
3	Giancarlo Stanton	0.3612	0.3922	0.4104	27.6	10.2	17.4
4	Anthony Rizzo	0.2900	0.3316	0.3501	24.3	7.6	16.7
5	Chris Davis	0.3072	0.3294	0.3553	30.3	15.8	14.5
6	Mike Trout	0.3079	0.3249	0.4107	69.4	56.2	13.2
7	Brian Bogusevic	0.3250	0.2931	0.2722	18.9	7.5	11.4
8	John Mayberry Jr.	0.3455	0.3184	0.3043	16.9	5.7	11.2
9	Michael Saunders	0.2701	0.2860	0.3199	30.8	20.0	10.8
10	Jay Bruce	0.3473	0.3611	0.3584	10.8	0.3	10.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Brian Dozier	0.3206	0.2913	0.2618	18.1	9.3	8.8
2	Joe Mather	0.3206	0.2867	0.2547	14.6	7.2	7.4
3	Alex Gordon	0.3454	0.3517	0.3587	13.7	6.7	7.0
4	Gorkys Hernández	0.3206	0.2766	0.2546	10.4	3.4	7.0
5	Scott Podsednik	0.3206	0.2878	0.2855	6.4	0.0	6.3
6	Freddy Galvis	0.3206	0.2856	0.2633	10.3	4.0	6.3
7	Ike Davis	0.3705	0.3564	0.3329	18.7	12.4	6.2
8	Jason Heyward	0.3715	0.3593	0.3507	9.9	4.2	5.7
9	Brandon Barnes	0.3206	0.2645	0.2299	8.9	3.4	5.5
10	Jason Kubel	0.3452	0.3510	0.3558	9.3	4.0	5.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Josh Reddick	0.2952	0.3117	0.3301	23.5	13.8	9.7
2	Brian Bixler	0.3206	0.2692	0.2546	6.3	1.2	5.1
3	Rod Barajas	0.3126	0.3005	0.2782	12.4	7.3	5.1
4	Eric Hosmer	0.3577	0.3520	0.2939	38.1	33.4	4.7
5	Chris Davis	0.3190	0.3294	0.3553	20.4	15.8	4.6
6	José Reyes	0.3542	0.3501	0.3371	12.2	7.8	4.4
7	Jordan Pacheco	0.2989	0.3098	0.3311	16.3	11.8	4.4
8	Brett Lawrie	0.3553	0.3494	0.3180	20.0	15.6	4.4
9	Paul Goldschmidt	0.3512	0.3608	0.3654	8.3	4.0	4.3
10	Ryan Braun	0.3795	0.3879	0.4194	27.0	22.8	4.2

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Bryan LaHair	0.3263	0.2328 (31.5)	0.2009 (43.6)	0.2331 (30.1)	0.2324 (32.9)
David Wright	0.1672	0.2138 (38.3)	0.2229 (44.5)	0.2135 (40.4)	0.2142 (36.3)
Cody Ransom	0.3865	0.2716 (29.4)	0.2110 (46.5)	0.1920 (50.9)	0.2716 (30.4)
Jason Kipnis	0.1622	0.2054 (36.1)	0.1986 (31.6)	0.2018 (36.1)	0.2090 (36.4)
Curtis Granderson	0.2851	0.2269 (32.6)	0.2202 (37.1)	0.2271 (30.0)	0.2266 (35.0)
Prince Fielder	0.1217	0.1742 (43.5)	0.1771 (45.6)	0.1692 (42.5)	0.1791 (44.6)
Jason Kubel	0.2644	0.1875 (37.9)	0.1969 (32.5)	0.1884 (35.4)	0.1866 (40.3)
Josh Hamilton	0.2547	0.1791 (41.4)	0.1797 (40.9)	0.1781 (39.8)	0.1800 (42.9)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Paul Goldschmidt	0.2697	0.2215	34.5
2	Anthony Rizzo	0.2503	0.1685	34.0
3	Adam LaRoche	0.2532	0.2133	32.6
4	Logan Forsythe	0.2446	0.1629	32.3
5	Jayson Werth	0.2406	0.1657	29.4
6	Carlos Beltrán	0.1430	0.2003	28.9
7	Mark Reynolds	0.3377	0.2955	28.4
8	A.J. Ellis	0.1456	0.2119	28.1
9	A.J. Pierzynski	0.0871	0.1500	27.2
10	Mike Moustakas	0.1473	0.2020	27.0

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Norichika Aoki	0.1920	0.0935	64.2
2	Michael Brantley	0.1524	0.0920	43.3
3	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	0.1920	0.3121	34.4
4	Marco Scutaro	0.1104	0.0717	33.7
5	Lucas Duda	0.1795	0.2614	32.7
6	Steve Lombardozzi Jr.	0.1757	0.1106	31.5
7	Michael Young	0.1443	0.1075	30.9
8	Yonder Alonso	0.2016	0.1632	30.4
9	Brett Jackson	0.1920	0.4155	30.2
10	Jose Altuve	0.1545	0.1175	30.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Anthony Rizzo	0.2480	0.1685	34.4
2	Adam LaRoche	0.2496	0.2133	32.6
3	Lucas Duda	0.1782	0.2614	31.7
4	Logan Forsythe	0.2387	0.1629	31.5
5	Jayson Werth	0.2423	0.1657	31.2
6	Michael Young	0.1392	0.1075	29.8
7	Michael Brantley	0.1235	0.0920	27.8
8	Joaquin Arias	0.1920	0.1279	26.9
9	Mike Moustakas	0.1441	0.2020	26.9
10	Carlos Beltrán	0.1429	0.2003	26.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Paul Goldschmidt	0.2902	0.2215	44.6
2	Anthony Rizzo	0.2527	0.1685	33.7
3	Logan Forsythe	0.2505	0.1629	33.2
4	Mark Reynolds	0.3495	0.2955	32.9
5	Adam LaRoche	0.2567	0.2133	32.8
6	Bryce Harper	0.2463	0.2010	31.4
7	Carlos Beltrán	0.1432	0.2003	30.9
8	A.J. Pierzynski	0.0854	0.1500	29.8
9	A.J. Ellis	0.1463	0.2119	29.4
10	Brett Lawrie	0.2052	0.1604	27.9

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Norichika Aoki	0.1920	0.0893	0.0935	64.2	3.7	60.5
2	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	0.1920	0.2722	0.3121	34.4	9.2	25.1
3	Jordan Pacheco	0.1613	0.1160	0.1208	25.8	2.9	22.9
4	Anthony Gose	0.1920	0.2994	0.3122	20.7	0.4	20.3
5	Brandon Moss	0.1942	0.2585	0.3041	29.4	10.4	19.0
6	Justin Maxwell	0.2394	0.3334	0.3239	26.0	7.1	18.9
7	Adam Dunn	0.2939	0.3220	0.3421	24.3	6.2	18.2
8	Joaquin Arias	0.1814	0.1289	0.1279	22.1	4.0	18.1
9	Michael Brantley	0.1524	0.1239	0.0920	43.3	25.9	17.5
10	Jose Altuve	0.1545	0.1275	0.1175	30.1	13.0	17.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Joaquin Arias	0.1920	0.1289	0.1279	26.9	4.0	22.9
2	Kevin Frandsen	0.1920	0.0905	0.0857	25.3	3.2	22.1
3	Cody Ransom	0.1920	0.2716	0.3865	50.9	29.4	21.5
4	Anthony Gose	0.1920	0.2994	0.3122	20.0	0.4	19.6
5	Andrelton Simmons	0.1920	0.0909	0.1154	16.5	2.5	14.0
6	Will Rhymes	0.1920	0.1153	0.1241	11.2	0.2	11.0
7	Ike Davis	0.2089	0.2334	0.2414	10.8	1.5	9.3
8	Scott Podsednik	0.1920	0.1501	0.1620	9.5	0.3	9.2
9	Irving Falu	0.1920	0.0955	0.0989	9.8	0.7	9.1
10	Pedro Álvarez	0.2573	0.2762	0.3072	21.0	12.0	9.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Brandon Crawford	0.2490	0.2167	0.1996	27.0	13.2	13.8
2	Ike Davis	0.2579	0.2334	0.2414	13.9	1.5	12.4
3	Paul Goldschmidt	0.2902	0.2697	0.2215	44.6	34.5	10.1
4	Colby Rasmus	0.2600	0.2434	0.2384	18.0	9.7	8.3
5	Casper Wells	0.3163	0.2885	0.2532	22.2	14.5	7.7
6	Derek Norris	0.3284	0.2930	0.2845	11.9	4.4	7.4
7	Justin Maxwell	0.3569	0.3334	0.3239	14.2	7.1	7.1
8	Bryce Harper	0.2463	0.2312	0.2010	31.4	24.3	7.1
9	Chris Davis	0.3057	0.2901	0.3007	6.9	0.0	6.8
10	Zack Cozart	0.1918	0.1780	0.1883	6.4	0.1	6.3

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Miguel Montero	0.1274	0.0876 (24.5)	0.0843 (27.0)	0.0883 (25.7)	0.0870 (23.7)
Dan Uggla	0.1492	0.1053 (29.5)	0.1087 (28.0)	0.1077 (29.8)	0.1030 (29.7)
Robinson Canó	0.0875	0.0620 (19.9)	0.0641 (19.1)	0.0637 (20.6)	0.0603 (19.6)
Austin Jackson	0.1086	0.0800 (19.5)	0.0779 (21.4)	0.0822 (19.8)	0.0777 (19.6)
Alexei Ramirez	0.0258	0.0637 (21.7)	0.0682 (23.9)	0.0667 (21.9)	0.0607 (21.1)
Joey Votto	0.1979	0.1456 (26.3)	0.1362 (31.2)	0.1433 (28.7)	0.1479 (24.2)
Adrián González	0.0614	0.1225 (39.7)	0.1248 (40.6)	0.1272 (41.1)	0.1177 (37.9)
Miguel Cabrera	0.0947	0.1364 (27.0)	0.1297 (21.6)	0.1343 (23.6)	0.1385 (29.9)
Joe Mauer	0.1404	0.1129 (19.6)	0.1059 (24.7)	0.1161 (19.2)	0.1096 (20.4)
Edwin Encarnación	0.1304	0.0899 (28.0)	0.0857 (31.4)	0.0929 (27.8)	0.0868 (28.7)
Albert Pujols	0.0776	0.1276 (31.5)	0.1237 (28.2)	0.1346 (34.4)	0.1205 (28.1)
Yunel Escobar	0.0576	0.0995 (23.7)	0.0982 (22.3)	0.1019 (23.5)	0.0972 (23.5)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jason Heyward	0.1330	0.0891	26.7
2	B.J. Upton	0.1154	0.0711	26.1
3	Ian Kinsler	0.1113	0.0821	19.2
4	David Freese	0.0709	0.1005	18.5
5	Jemile Weeks	0.0656	0.0978	18.0
6	Marco Scutaro	0.0876	0.0586	17.8
7	John Buck	0.0817	0.1231	17.7
8	Jesus Montero	0.0863	0.0524	17.1

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Buster Posey	0.0783	0.1131	23.7
2	Marco Scutaro	0.0938	0.0586	21.3
3	Jemile Weeks	0.0606	0.0978	21.1
4	Chase Headley	0.0980	0.1230	20.3
5	John Buck	0.0774	0.1231	19.8
6	Mike Trout	0.0786	0.1049	19.3
7	Adam Dunn	0.1361	0.1618	19.3
8	Chris Carter	0.0809	0.1500	19.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jason Heyward	0.1350	0.0891	26.1
2	B.J. Upton	0.1174	0.0711	25.7
3	Ian Kinsler	0.1142	0.0821	19.3
4	Jemile Weeks	0.0660	0.0978	19.2
5	John Buck	0.0811	0.1231	19.0
6	David Freese	0.0735	0.1005	18.6
7	Marco Scutaro	0.0907	0.0586	18.0
8	Buster Posey	0.0897	0.1131	17.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jason Heyward	0.1311	0.0891	26.7
2	B.J. Upton	0.1133	0.0711	26.1
3	Derek Norris	0.1780	0.0905	20.1
4	Jesus Montero	0.0881	0.0524	19.2
5	David Freese	0.0683	0.1005	18.8
6	Ian Kinsler	0.1084	0.0821	18.6
7	Carlos Lee	0.0662	0.0943	17.9
8	Dustin Ackley	0.1157	0.0883	17.7

Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	A.J. Ellis	0.0989	0.1330	0.1287	17.1	0.7	16.4
2	Adam Dunn	0.1361	0.1577	0.1618	19.3	4.6	14.7
3	Luis Alfonso Cruz	0.0788	0.0328	0.0304	13.1	0.2	13.0
4	Grégor Blanco	0.0925	0.1159	0.1126	10.9	0.2	10.7
5	Brandon Belt	0.0892	0.1242	0.1144	13.8	3.2	10.6
6	Pedro Ciriaco	0.0773	0.0235	0.0294	11.9	2.4	9.5
7	Bryce Harper	0.0815	0.0957	0.0938	9.8	0.6	9.1
8	Will Middlebrooks	0.0815	0.0482	0.0455	9.2	0.1	9.1
9	Jesus Flores	0.0810	0.0500	0.0439	9.8	0.9	8.9
10	Tyler Colvin	0.0761	0.0560	0.0465	11.6	2.9	8.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Norichika Aoki	0.1083	0.0831	0.0731	17.3	4.1	13.2
2	Joaquin Arias	0.0815	0.0316	0.0378	13.1	3.2	9.9
3	Yasmani Grandal	0.0815	0.1083	0.1372	13.9	7.2	6.7
4	Freddy Galvis	0.0815	0.0464	0.0350	8.1	1.7	6.5
5	Adeiny Hechavarría	0.0815	0.0373	0.0292	6.4	0.7	5.7
6	Bryce Harper	0.0903	0.0957	0.0938	5.5	0.6	4.9
7	Kevin Frandsen	0.0815	0.0348	0.0429	6.9	2.3	4.6
8	Scott Podsednik	0.0815	0.0617	0.0278	10.4	6.7	3.7
9	Daniel Nava	0.0815	0.0894	0.1167	13.0	9.6	3.4
10	Moisés Sierra	0.0815	0.0502	0.0510	3.9	0.6	3.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Norichika Aoki	0.0578	0.0831	0.0731	9.5	4.1	5.4
2	Derek Norris	0.1780	0.1619	0.0905	20.1	15.9	4.2
3	José Bautista	0.1766	0.1695	0.1479	11.1	7.5	3.6
4	Bryce Harper	0.1011	0.0957	0.0938	3.8	0.6	3.2
5	Miguel Cabrera	0.1385	0.1364	0.0947	29.9	27.0	2.9
6	Logan Forsythe	0.1195	0.1149	0.0800	13.5	11.2	2.3
7	Brennan Boesch	0.0784	0.0759	0.0517	12.9	10.7	2.3
8	Chris Davis	0.0622	0.0680	0.0658	2.6	0.4	2.2
9	Jesus Montero	0.0881	0.0863	0.0524	19.2	17.1	2.1
10	Chris Snyder	0.1434	0.1375	0.1279	3.8	1.7	2.1

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Miguel Montero	0.0209	0.0110 (5.9)	0.0098 (6.5)	0.0112 (5.9)	0.0109 (6.0)
Corey Hart	0.0177	0.0100 (5.1)	0.0093 (5.3)	0.0096 (5.3)	0.0103 (4.8)
Hunter Pence	0.0102	0.0018 (6.0)	0.0017 (6.0)	0.0021 (5.9)	0.0015 (6.2)
Sean Rodríguez	0.0088	0.0270 (6.1)	0.0260 (5.8)	0.0241 (5.1)	0.0300 (7.1)
Carlos Pena	0.0217	0.0113 (6.5)	0.0108 (6.6)	0.0113 (6.5)	0.0113 (6.4)
Norichika Aoki	0.0221	0.0095 (7.6)	0.0083 (8.3)	0.0069 (9.2)	0.0122 (6.0)
Carlos Ruiz	0.0380	0.0160 (9.4)	0.0148 (9.9)	0.0155 (9.7)	0.0165 (9.2)
Jason Heyward	0.0031	0.0119 (5.5)	0.0118 (5.5)	0.0116 (5.2)	0.0122 (5.8)
Jon Jay	0.0299	0.0131 (8.7)	0.0122 (9.0)	0.0117 (9.4)	0.0144 (7.9)
Kevin Youkilis	0.0334	0.0239 (5.1)	0.0222 (5.8)	0.0237 (5.2)	0.0240 (4.9)
Adam Dunn	0.0015	0.0094 (4.8)	0.0099 (5.2)	0.0096 (4.9)	0.0092 (4.8)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Colby Rasmus	0.0024	0.0112	5.8
2	Buster Posey	0.0129	0.0033	5.6
3	Alex Gordon	0.0116	0.0042	5.1
4	Justin Upton	0.0163	0.0080	5.0
5	Dan Uggla	0.0086	0.0159	4.9
6	Travis Hafner	0.0164	0.0342	4.8
7	Alejandro De Aza	0.0077	0.0154	4.7
8	Craig Gentry	0.0200	0.0372	4.7
9	Tyler Greene	0.0177	0.0030	4.7

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tyler Greene	0.0220	0.0030	6.2
2	Josh Harrison	0.0032	0.0254	6.2
3	Edwin Encarnación	0.0080	0.0171	6.0
4	Scott Moore	0.0048	0.0307	6.0
5	Alex Rodriguez	0.0087	0.0189	5.5
6	Chris Davis	0.0031	0.0125	5.4
7	Craig Gentry	0.0179	0.0372	5.3
8	Alejandro De Aza	0.0069	0.0154	5.1
9	Prince Fielder	0.0177	0.0246	4.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Daniel Nava	0.0083	0.0284	6.5
2	Buster Posey	0.0129	0.0033	5.6
3	Craig Gentry	0.0172	0.0372	5.5
4	Colby Rasmus	0.0030	0.0112	5.4
5	Alex Gordon	0.0120	0.0042	5.3
6	Scott Moore	0.0083	0.0307	5.2
7	Justin Upton	0.0161	0.0080	4.8
8	Edwin Encarnación	0.0101	0.0171	4.8
9	Prince Fielder	0.0182	0.0246	4.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Colby Rasmus	0.0017	0.0112	6.1
2	Buster Posey	0.0128	0.0033	5.6
3	Dan Uggla	0.0079	0.0159	5.2
4	Justin Upton	0.0165	0.0080	5.2
5	Jordan Pacheco	0.0161	0.0059	5.0
6	Alex Gordon	0.0113	0.0042	4.9
7	Travis Hafner	0.0162	0.0342	4.8
8	Tyler Greene	0.0178	0.0030	4.8
9	Alejandro De Aza	0.0076	0.0154	4.7

Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jesus Montero	0.0082	0.0040	0.0036	2.4	0.0	2.4
2	Bryce Harper	0.0083	0.0045	0.0034	2.8	0.4	2.4
3	Josh Harrison	0.0032	0.0119	0.0254	6.2	3.8	2.3
4	Wilin Rosario	0.0084	0.0031	0.0023	2.5	0.2	2.3
5	Steve Clevenger	0.0146	0.0050	0.0000	3.1	1.0	2.1
6	Bryan LaHair	0.0085	0.0034	0.0000	3.2	1.1	2.0
7	Scott Moore	0.0048	0.0135	0.0307	6.0	4.0	2.0
8	Adam Eaton	0.0083	0.0319	0.0291	2.2	0.2	1.9
9	Pedro Ciriaco	0.0091	0.0030	0.0000	2.4	0.7	1.7
10	Darwin Barney	0.0120	0.0094	0.0051	3.9	2.3	1.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Daniel Nava	0.0083	0.0170	0.0284	6.5	3.7	2.8
2	Adam Eaton	0.0083	0.0319	0.0291	2.2	0.2	1.9
3	Kevin Frandsen	0.0083	0.0325	0.0238	3.4	1.7	1.6
4	Norichika Aoki	0.0069	0.0095	0.0221	9.2	7.6	1.6
5	Nick Johnson	0.0083	0.0235	0.0392	3.2	1.6	1.6
6	Manny Machado	0.0083	0.0019	0.0000	1.6	0.3	1.3
7	Jesus Montero	0.0063	0.0040	0.0036	1.3	0.0	1.2
8	Scott Moore	0.0083	0.0135	0.0307	5.2	4.0	1.2
9	Michael Brantley	0.0059	0.0045	0.0000	3.3	2.5	0.8
10	Craig Gentry	0.0172	0.0200	0.0372	5.5	4.7	0.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jesus Montero	0.0016	0.0040	0.0036	1.3	0.0	1.3
2	Sean Rodríguez	0.0300	0.0270	0.0088	7.1	6.1	1.0
3	Kelly Shoppach	0.0379	0.0350	0.0327	1.2	0.5	0.7
4	A.J. Ellis	0.0183	0.0170	0.0139	2.1	1.4	0.7
5	Reed Johnson	0.0364	0.0341	0.0208	4.4	3.7	0.7
6	David Freese	0.0082	0.0095	0.0123	2.5	1.8	0.7
7	Mark Trumbo	0.0047	0.0059	0.0068	1.4	0.8	0.6
8	Casper Wells	0.0195	0.0176	0.0127	2.0	1.4	0.6
9	Jamey Carroll	0.0047	0.0059	0.0074	1.7	1.0	0.6
10	Chris Denorfia	0.0025	0.0041	0.0052	1.2	0.6	0.6

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Brandon Moss	0.1186	0.0447 (21.0)	0.0270 (26.6)	0.0452 (21.1)	0.0441 (21.1)
Carlos Beltrán	0.0748	0.0424 (18.1)	0.0427 (18.8)	0.0428 (18.4)	0.0420 (18.2)
Chase Headley	0.0686	0.0264 (27.3)	0.0237 (30.2)	0.0272 (27.3)	0.0255 (27.8)
Ian Desmond	0.0623	0.0235 (19.5)	0.0233 (20.4)	0.0242 (19.6)	0.0227 (19.9)
Curtis Granderson	0.1051	0.0717 (20.8)	0.0711 (22.1)	0.0679 (23.9)	0.0754 (18.1)
Adrián González	0.0342	0.0656 (23.6)	0.0615 (19.9)	0.0656 (23.1)	0.0655 (23.7)
Edwin Encarnación	0.0923	0.0526 (23.6)	0.0511 (25.4)	0.0521 (24.4)	0.0531 (23.2)
Adam Dunn	0.1277	0.0919 (21.2)	0.0775 (31.5)	0.0874 (24.7)	0.0967 (18.1)
A.J. Pierzynski	0.0665	0.0220 (21.5)	0.0240 (21.2)	0.0230 (21.5)	0.0211 (21.9)
Josh Hamilton	0.1051	0.0579 (28.1)	0.0594 (27.9)	0.0593 (27.7)	0.0565 (28.9)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Trout	0.0322	0.0703	22.3
2	Justin Upton	0.0653	0.0387	18.6
3	Carlos Pena	0.0873	0.0597	18.4
4	Mark Reynolds	0.1073	0.0767	18.1
5	Josh Reddick	0.0402	0.0688	17.2
6	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	0.0513	0.0926	17.1
7	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0768	0.0509	17.1
8	Albert Pujols	0.0775	0.0559	16.6
9	Andrew McCutchen	0.0391	0.0665	16.4
10	Jonny Gomes	0.0499	0.1017	16.2

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Davis	0.0481	0.0946	25.1
2	Pedro Álvarez	0.0458	0.0862	22.6
3	Josh Reddick	0.0346	0.0688	21.8
4	Wilin Rosario	0.0422	0.0930	20.9
5	Ike Davis	0.0476	0.0840	20.2
6	Chris Carter	0.0375	0.1159	19.9
7	Giancarlo Stanton	0.0805	0.1205	19.2
8	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	0.0500	0.0926	18.3
9	Jason Kubel	0.0494	0.0831	18.2
10	Ryan Braun	0.0576	0.0863	18.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Trout	0.0329	0.0703	22.4
2	Justin Upton	0.0669	0.0387	19.1
3	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	0.0487	0.0926	18.6
4	Albert Pujols	0.0796	0.0559	17.4
5	Jason Kubel	0.0505	0.0831	17.3
6	Andrew McCutchen	0.0388	0.0665	17.1
7	Carlos Pena	0.0854	0.0597	16.7
8	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0770	0.0509	16.6
9	Mark Reynolds	0.1052	0.0767	16.6
10	Jonny Gomes	0.0499	0.1017	16.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Trout	0.0316	0.0703	22.6
2	Carlos Pena	0.0893	0.0597	19.7
3	Josh Reddick	0.0366	0.0688	19.5
4	Mark Reynolds	0.1094	0.0767	19.3
5	Brett Lawrie	0.0574	0.0267	18.2
6	Justin Upton	0.0636	0.0387	17.7
7	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0767	0.0509	17.1
8	Nelson Cruz	0.0763	0.0535	16.8
9	Alex Gordon	0.0473	0.0277	16.4
10	Wilin Rosario	0.0513	0.0930	16.4

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Chris Davis	0.0481	0.0672	0.0946	25.1	13.6	11.5
2	Pedro Álvarez	0.0458	0.0639	0.0862	22.6	11.2	11.4
3	Bryan LaHair	0.0368	0.0626	0.0737	13.4	3.0	10.3
4	Adam Dunn	0.0775	0.0919	0.1277	31.5	21.2	10.2
5	Norichika Aoki	0.0398	0.0138	0.0210	12.1	2.4	9.7
6	Donovan Solano	0.0398	0.0081	0.0085	10.4	0.9	9.6
7	Anthony Rizzo	0.0269	0.0528	0.0543	9.5	0.6	8.9
8	Mike Moustakas	0.0232	0.0359	0.0450	12.3	3.7	8.6
9	Giancarlo Stanton	0.0805	0.0963	0.1205	19.2	10.6	8.6
10	Justin Maxwell	0.0441	0.0667	0.0887	15.1	6.6	8.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Donovan Solano	0.0398	0.0081	0.0085	10.6	0.9	9.7
2	Joaquin Arias	0.0398	0.0094	0.0177	8.4	1.8	6.6
3	Scott Podsednik	0.0398	0.0102	0.0057	7.8	1.6	6.2
4	Kevin Frandsen	0.0398	0.0138	0.0112	6.5	1.2	5.3
5	Freddy Galvis	0.0398	0.0140	0.0183	4.8	0.2	4.5
6	Justin Maxwell	0.0549	0.0667	0.0887	11.1	6.6	4.4
7	Pedro Álvarez	0.0575	0.0639	0.0862	15.5	11.2	4.3
8	Will Rhymes	0.0398	0.0042	0.0093	4.5	0.3	4.2
9	Brian Dozier	0.0398	0.0114	0.0226	6.6	2.8	3.8
10	Cody Ransom	0.0398	0.0522	0.0786	10.3	6.5	3.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Brett Lawrie	0.0574	0.0501	0.0267	18.2	14.2	4.0
2	Kelly Johnson	0.0532	0.0487	0.0451	6.6	3.9	2.7
3	Rod Barajas	0.0560	0.0491	0.0430	5.9	3.3	2.5
4	Jay Bruce	0.0697	0.0735	0.0825	6.1	3.7	2.4
5	Josh Reddick	0.0366	0.0402	0.0688	19.5	17.2	2.3
6	Colby Rasmus	0.0622	0.0586	0.0545	6.8	4.5	2.3
7	Yoenis Cespedes	0.0426	0.0469	0.0593	7.3	5.0	2.2
8	Jim Thome	0.0970	0.0856	0.0784	4.1	1.9	2.1
9	Chris Davis	0.0634	0.0672	0.0946	15.7	13.6	2.1
10	J.D. Martinez	0.0280	0.0328	0.0364	2.3	0.2	2.0

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Miguel Montero	0.3615	0.3011 (34.1)	0.3116 (29.8)	0.3006 (33.8)	0.3016 (34.6)
Andrew McCutchen	0.3747	0.3021 (48.3)	0.3055 (48.1)	0.2997 (49.2)	0.3045 (47.5)
Jemile Weeks	0.2500	0.3050 (28.5)	0.3303 (39.9)	0.3026 (27.9)	0.3073 (29.1)
Ike Davis	0.2464	0.3164 (41.4)	0.3182 (40.6)	0.3160 (41.8)	0.3169 (40.9)
Tyler Colvin	0.3537	0.2829 (31.6)	0.2565 (44.9)	0.2784 (33.2)	0.2874 (30.2)
Buster Posey	0.3675	0.3139 (32.2)	0.3080 (37.6)	0.3107 (33.5)	0.3171 (31.0)
Torii Hunter	0.3882	0.2948 (54.0)	0.3061 (49.2)	0.2965 (52.4)	0.2931 (55.8)
Alcides Escobar	0.3386	0.2925 (29.3)	0.2758 (42.1)	0.2899 (30.3)	0.2952 (28.4)
Danny Espinosa	0.3308	0.2837 (30.4)	0.2841 (32.2)	0.2815 (31.1)	0.2861 (29.7)
Mike Trout	0.3829	0.3078 (47.4)	0.2760 (69.7)	0.2983 (52.8)	0.3174 (42.1)
Melky Cabrera	0.3785	0.3027 (37.5)	0.3043 (38.3)	0.2984 (39.1)	0.3071 (36.0)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Eric Hosmer	0.3164	0.2552	37.1
2	Joey Votto	0.3318	0.4043	34.0
3	Casey Kotchman	0.2891	0.2315	29.3
4	Aaron Hill	0.2729	0.3160	28.2
5	Dexter Fowler	0.3298	0.3832	27.8
6	Justin Ruggiano	0.3096	0.3969	27.6
7	Alex Gordon	0.3178	0.3564	27.2
8	Brian McCann	0.2888	0.2341	27.1
9	Yoenis Cespedes	0.2752	0.3260	27.0

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aaron Hill	0.2568	0.3160	41.0
2	Dustin Ackley	0.3199	0.2643	35.7
3	Justin Ruggiano	0.2921	0.3969	34.2
4	Alex Rios	0.2725	0.3225	33.4
5	Brandon Belt	0.2836	0.3510	32.8
6	Chris Nelson	0.2936	0.3711	30.0
7	Alex Gordon	0.3175	0.3564	29.7
8	Dexter Fowler	0.3295	0.3832	29.6
9	Adam Dunn	0.2939	0.2464	29.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Alex Gordon	0.3080	0.3564	33.4
2	Joey Votto	0.3336	0.4043	32.6
3	Yoenis Cespedes	0.2640	0.3260	32.4
4	Dexter Fowler	0.3221	0.3832	31.3
5	Eric Hosmer	0.3044	0.2552	30.6
6	Aaron Hill	0.2694	0.3160	29.8
7	Justin Ruggiano	0.3023	0.3969	29.6
8	Casey Kotchman	0.2865	0.2315	28.5
9	Russell Martin	0.2767	0.2208	28.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Eric Hosmer	0.3282	0.2552	43.4
2	Joey Votto	0.3299	0.4043	35.5
3	Derek Jeter	0.3013	0.3436	31.6
4	Jordan Pacheco	0.2838	0.3430	30.1
5	Casey Kotchman	0.2918	0.2315	29.9
6	Joe Mauer	0.3189	0.3636	28.9
7	Alex Rios	0.2784	0.3225	28.5
8	Colby Rasmus	0.3026	0.2581	27.5
9	Chris Nelson	0.2987	0.3711	27.4

Most Unique Misses for BABIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Trout	0.2760	0.3078	0.3829	69.7	47.4	22.3
2	Brandon Belt	0.2836	0.3211	0.3510	32.8	13.7	19.2
3	Michael Saunders	0.2632	0.2873	0.2961	19.4	4.3	15.1
4	Brandon Crawford	0.2632	0.2881	0.3050	20.9	7.6	13.3
5	Tyler Colvin	0.2565	0.2829	0.3537	44.9	31.6	13.3
6	Aaron Hill	0.2568	0.2729	0.3160	41.0	28.2	12.9
7	Alcides Escobar	0.2758	0.2925	0.3386	42.1	29.3	12.8
8	Jose Altuve	0.2976	0.3148	0.3181	14.3	1.5	12.8
9	Anthony Rizzo	0.2652	0.2967	0.3103	17.4	4.7	12.7
10	Dustin Ackley	0.3199	0.2982	0.2643	35.7	23.3	12.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Ichiro Suzuki	0.3267	0.3146	0.2970	21.0	12.3	8.8
2	Alex Gordon	0.3080	0.3178	0.3564	33.4	27.2	6.3
3	Yasmani Grandal	0.2968	0.3224	0.3333	7.8	2.3	5.5
4	Yoenis Cespedes	0.2640	0.2752	0.3260	32.4	27.0	5.4
5	Mike Trout	0.2983	0.3078	0.3829	52.8	47.4	5.4
6	Brian Dozier	0.2968	0.2835	0.2625	12.3	7.4	4.9
7	Joe Mather	0.2968	0.2782	0.2373	14.9	10.2	4.8
8	Yunel Escobar	0.2981	0.2929	0.2694	18.7	14.8	3.9
9	Norichika Aoki	0.2895	0.3007	0.2998	4.9	1.1	3.8
10	Allen Craig	0.2941	0.3026	0.3342	19.6	15.8	3.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Derek Jeter	0.3013	0.3100	0.3436	31.6	24.2	7.3
2	Bryce Harper	0.2917	0.3011	0.3073	9.6	3.1	6.4
3	Eric Hosmer	0.3282	0.3164	0.2552	43.4	37.1	6.3
4	Jordan Pacheco	0.2838	0.2934	0.3430	30.1	24.6	5.5
5	Norichika Aoki	0.3114	0.3007	0.2998	6.6	1.1	5.5
6	Ángel Pagán	0.2970	0.3038	0.3281	20.7	15.4	5.3
7	Chipper Jones	0.2803	0.2902	0.2985	8.3	3.3	5.0
8	Grégor Blanco	0.2724	0.2819	0.3127	18.4	13.6	4.9
9	Tyler Greene	0.3052	0.2907	0.2892	5.2	0.8	4.3
10	Shin-Soo Choo	0.3204	0.3251	0.3533	22.9	18.8	4.1

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jeff Keppinger	0.2857	0.2154 (27.1)	0.2204 (27.6)	0.2146 (25.5)	0.2162 (28.7)
Miguel Montero	0.2828	0.2087 (39.3)	0.2210 (35.8)	0.2047 (39.0)	0.2127 (39.7)
Russell Martin	0.1623	0.2199 (30.6)	0.2236 (29.3)	0.2166 (31.2)	0.2232 (29.9)
Andrew McCutchen	0.2943	0.2102 (52.9)	0.2172 (52.4)	0.2065 (52.3)	0.2138 (53.5)
Jay Bruce	0.1772	0.2194 (30.1)	0.2202 (26.7)	0.2116 (28.1)	0.2273 (32.2)
Mark Trumbo	0.2548	0.2045 (26.3)	0.2023 (31.2)	0.1945 (29.5)	0.2145 (23.2)
Dexter Fowler	0.2928	0.2118 (40.1)	0.2159 (41.2)	0.2071 (40.1)	0.2165 (40.0)
Ike Davis	0.1719	0.2167 (29.3)	0.2318 (34.6)	0.2115 (28.9)	0.2222 (29.9)
Billy Butler	0.2720	0.2255 (27.9)	0.2328 (27.1)	0.2174 (30.3)	0.2335 (25.6)
Torii Hunter	0.3239	0.2226 (56.0)	0.2347 (52.5)	0.2189 (55.5)	0.2262 (56.5)
Mike Trout	0.2947	0.2286 (38.7)	0.2031 (59.0)	0.2160 (43.9)	0.2413 (33.6)
Melky Cabrera	0.2890	0.2217 (31.0)	0.2255 (32.2)	0.2214 (28.8)	0.2220 (33.1)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brendan Ryan	0.2183	0.1688	25.9
2	Alex Rodriguez	0.2158	0.2695	25.5
3	Anthony Rizzo	0.1791	0.2529	25.1
4	Jonny Gomes	0.2028	0.2830	24.9
5	Adrian Beltré	0.2067	0.2485	23.8
6	Danny Espinosa	0.1904	0.2316	23.5
7	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	0.2001	0.2802	23.4
8	Ichiro Suzuki	0.2668	0.2373	23.2

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Alcides Escobar	0.2175	0.2657	31.7
2	Anthony Rizzo	0.1768	0.2529	28.3
3	Zack Cozart	0.2405	0.1963	26.1
4	Jemile Weeks	0.2416	0.1901	25.9
5	Omar Infante	0.2550	0.2106	25.7
6	Ichiro Suzuki	0.2766	0.2373	25.6
7	Alex Rodriguez	0.2230	0.2695	25.0
8	Tyler Colvin	0.1739	0.2279	24.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ichiro Suzuki	0.2779	0.2373	33.6
2	Anthony Rizzo	0.1625	0.2529	29.6
3	Yoenis Cespedes	0.1839	0.2438	26.9
4	Danny Espinosa	0.1811	0.2316	26.6
5	Adrian Beltré	0.1985	0.2485	26.2
6	Brendan Ryan	0.2138	0.1688	25.9
7	Jonny Gomes	0.1954	0.2830	25.8
8	Paul Konerko	0.2079	0.2606	25.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Derek Jeter	0.2445	0.2889	32.2
2	Eric Hosmer	0.2490	0.1995	30.1
3	Alex Rodriguez	0.2167	0.2695	27.5
4	Brendan Ryan	0.2228	0.1688	25.8
5	John Buck	0.2247	0.1645	24.3
6	Jonny Gomes	0.2105	0.2830	23.9
7	Donovan Solano	0.2174	0.2918	23.3
8	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	0.2069	0.2802	22.8

Most Unique Misses for Single Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Trout	0.2031	0.2286	0.2947	59.0	38.7	20.2
2	Zack Cozart	0.2405	0.2047	0.1963	26.1	8.3	17.8
3	Mike Moustakas	0.2271	0.2004	0.1910	21.7	9.1	12.6
4	Alcides Escobar	0.2175	0.2294	0.2657	31.7	20.0	11.7
5	Rickie Weeks Jr.	0.2349	0.2136	0.2025	21.5	11.2	10.2
6	Dustin Ackley	0.2353	0.2139	0.2135	14.1	3.9	10.1
7	Ben Revere	0.2452	0.2572	0.2805	19.9	9.8	10.1
8	Aaron Hill	0.1926	0.2011	0.2160	16.1	6.3	9.8
9	Marco Scutaro	0.2258	0.2321	0.2521	18.5	10.0	8.5
10	Logan Forsythe	0.2049	0.2228	0.2530	17.1	8.7	8.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Yoenis Cespedes	0.1839	0.2088	0.2438	26.9	15.9	11.0
2	Ichiro Suzuki	0.2779	0.2668	0.2373	33.6	23.2	10.4
3	Paul Goldschmidt	0.1881	0.2043	0.2225	14.4	7.5	6.9
4	Giancarlo Stanton	0.1724	0.1889	0.2296	23.6	17.7	6.0
5	Joe Mather	0.2223	0.2030	0.1751	13.9	8.1	5.8
6	Ángel Pagán	0.2235	0.2194	0.2233	6.7	1.0	5.7
7	Pedro Álvarez	0.1992	0.2134	0.2264	10.1	4.4	5.6
8	Brett Lawrie	0.1848	0.1994	0.2369	22.6	17.2	5.4
9	Alex Gordon	0.2070	0.2190	0.2424	18.3	12.9	5.3
10	Bryce Harper	0.2201	0.2159	0.2191	6.6	1.3	5.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Derek Jeter	0.2445	0.2527	0.2889	32.2	22.7	9.4
2	Eric Hosmer	0.2490	0.2310	0.1995	30.1	22.1	8.0
3	Chipper Jones	0.1972	0.2089	0.2277	13.3	5.9	7.3
4	Mike Moustakas	0.2163	0.2004	0.1910	16.0	9.1	6.9
5	Grégor Blanco	0.2101	0.2197	0.2474	16.5	10.1	6.4
6	Jordan Pacheco	0.2230	0.2273	0.2585	17.5	13.0	4.5
7	Colby Rasmus	0.2104	0.1988	0.1930	11.4	7.0	4.4
8	Mark Reynolds	0.2035	0.1912	0.1877	9.0	4.8	4.1
9	José Bautista	0.2019	0.1870	0.1585	17.6	13.5	4.1
10	Jose Altuve	0.2595	0.2485	0.2425	11.2	7.2	4.0

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Denard Span	0.0835	0.0472 (22.9)	0.0426 (24.0)	0.0507 (23.3)	0.0437 (22.7)
Michael Saunders	0.0866	0.0583 (17.9)	0.0526 (19.5)	0.0629 (17.6)	0.0537 (18.3)
Mike Napoli	0.0439	0.0908 (17.9)	0.0848 (16.5)	0.0965 (18.5)	0.0849 (17.1)
Aramis Ramirez	0.1075	0.0749 (23.1)	0.0665 (26.6)	0.0782 (23.6)	0.0716 (22.7)
Joey Votto	0.1588	0.0923 (33.5)	0.0925 (32.1)	0.0982 (32.7)	0.0863 (34.5)
Shin-Soo Choo	0.0993	0.0755 (19.1)	0.0707 (20.5)	0.0822 (17.3)	0.0689 (21.0)
Kevin Youkilis	0.0478	0.0937 (21.3)	0.0932 (22.5)	0.0983 (21.6)	0.0892 (21.0)
Justin Upton	0.0569	0.0919 (19.5)	0.0829 (15.6)	0.0987 (21.2)	0.0850 (17.6)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Colby Rasmus	0.0869	0.0526	18.9
2	Norichika Aoki	0.0512	0.0792	18.8
3	Anthony Rizzo	0.1121	0.0575	18.6
4	Jesus Montero	0.0848	0.0490	17.6
5	Justin Smoak	0.0759	0.0394	17.4
6	Nelson Cruz	0.0836	0.1059	16.9
7	Casey Kotchman	0.0670	0.0296	16.7
8	Buster Posey	0.0698	0.0931	16.7
9	Michael Cuddyer	0.0746	0.1119	16.3
10	Aaron Hill	0.0682	0.0880	15.9

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0753	0.1153	24.2
2	Brian Bogusevic	0.0900	0.0356	21.5
3	Buster Posey	0.0600	0.0931	20.9
4	Justin Ruggiano	0.0618	0.1186	18.6
5	Aaron Hill	0.0617	0.0880	18.4
6	Jason Kipnis	0.0733	0.0461	17.4
7	Jay Bruce	0.0663	0.0926	17.4
8	Danny Espinosa	0.0696	0.0941	17.0
9	Albert Pujols	0.0747	0.0986	16.8
10	Michael Cuddyer	0.0709	0.1119	16.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Anthony Rizzo	0.1241	0.0575	21.5
2	Norichika Aoki	0.0531	0.0792	20.1
3	Colby Rasmus	0.0929	0.0526	20.1
4	Michael Cuddyer	0.0731	0.1119	18.5
5	Justin Smoak	0.0816	0.0394	18.2
6	Jesus Montero	0.0891	0.0490	17.7
7	Casey Kotchman	0.0718	0.0296	17.1
8	Nelson Cruz	0.0876	0.1059	17.0
9	Brian McCann	0.0833	0.0405	16.9
10	Michael Brantley	0.0556	0.0749	16.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Buster Posey	0.0639	0.0931	17.9
2	Norichika Aoki	0.0495	0.0792	17.6
3	Colby Rasmus	0.0807	0.0526	17.5
4	Albert Pujols	0.0728	0.0986	17.4
5	Jesus Montero	0.0805	0.0490	17.3
6	Nelson Cruz	0.0796	0.1059	16.9
7	Jay Bruce	0.0668	0.0926	16.4
8	Casey Kotchman	0.0623	0.0296	16.3
9	Justin Smoak	0.0701	0.0394	16.3
10	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0886	0.1153	15.7

Most Unique Misses for Double Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0753	0.0987	0.1153	24.2	12.1	12.1
2	Brandon Belt	0.0597	0.0865	0.0894	14.6	3.3	11.3
3	Chris Carter	0.0519	0.0939	0.0984	12.4	2.2	10.2
4	Todd Frazier	0.0663	0.0891	0.0855	9.5	0.2	9.3
5	Mike Moustakas	0.0644	0.0865	0.0802	10.4	1.4	9.1
6	Brian Bogusevic	0.0900	0.0711	0.0356	21.5	12.7	8.8
7	Zack Cozart	0.0570	0.0742	0.0753	11.8	3.1	8.7
8	Giancarlo Stanton	0.0875	0.1075	0.1111	12.4	3.8	8.6
9	Marco Scutaro	0.0699	0.0630	0.0549	9.4	2.8	6.6
10	Jarrod Dyson	0.0633	0.0464	0.0329	9.6	3.1	6.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Cody Ransom	0.0671	0.0866	0.1085	14.0	7.3	6.7
2	Josh Reddick	0.0920	0.0791	0.0670	11.4	5.4	6.0
3	Daniel Nava	0.0671	0.0807	0.1040	14.3	8.6	5.6
4	Mike Moustakas	0.0975	0.0865	0.0802	5.6	1.4	4.3
5	Scott Podsednik	0.0671	0.0448	0.0405	4.0	0.1	3.9
6	Curtis Granderson	0.0776	0.0678	0.0492	13.9	10.0	3.9
7	Pedro Álvarez	0.0974	0.0872	0.0786	6.2	2.6	3.6
8	Travis Ishikawa	0.0671	0.0833	0.1081	8.6	5.0	3.5
9	Jason Heyward	0.0886	0.0793	0.0728	5.0	1.6	3.4
10	Brian Dozier	0.0671	0.0536	0.0425	5.6	2.4	3.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Yoenis Cespedes	0.0487	0.0612	0.0685	10.7	6.1	4.6
2	Marco Scutaro	0.0656	0.0630	0.0549	7.2	2.8	4.4
3	Josh Willingham	0.0750	0.0856	0.0860	6.8	2.7	4.1
4	Dan Uggla	0.0623	0.0728	0.0855	14.7	10.6	4.1
5	Giancarlo Stanton	0.0957	0.1075	0.1111	7.8	3.8	4.0
6	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0886	0.0987	0.1153	15.7	12.1	3.6
7	Melky Cabrera	0.0747	0.0719	0.0639	5.3	2.0	3.4
8	Mark Reynolds	0.0772	0.0872	0.0939	9.0	5.7	3.3
9	Chris Carter	0.0781	0.0939	0.0984	5.3	2.2	3.1
10	Danny Espinosa	0.0709	0.0792	0.0941	15.4	12.5	2.9

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Starling Marte	0.0517	0.0159 (6.6)	0.0074 (8.1)	0.0115 (7.3)	0.0204 (5.9)
Alex Rios	0.0162	0.0060 (6.9)	0.0049 (7.4)	0.0056 (6.7)	0.0064 (7.0)
Bryce Harper	0.0227	0.0087 (8.7)	0.0074 (9.3)	0.0084 (8.5)	0.0089 (8.9)
Ángel Pagán	0.0296	0.0171 (8.6)	0.0150 (9.8)	0.0169 (8.3)	0.0173 (8.8)
Gerardo Parra	0.0065	0.0206 (5.9)	0.0193 (5.4)	0.0192 (5.5)	0.0221 (6.2)
Brett Lawrie	0.0075	0.0228 (7.9)	0.0198 (6.5)	0.0231 (8.4)	0.0226 (7.5)
Curtis Granderson	0.0109	0.0201 (5.9)	0.0191 (5.4)	0.0191 (5.7)	0.0211 (6.2)
Todd Frazier	0.0197	0.0062 (6.6)	0.0055 (6.7)	0.0043 (7.1)	0.0080 (6.0)
Dustin Ackley	0.0042	0.0164 (7.8)	0.0184 (9.3)	0.0144 (6.8)	0.0184 (8.7)
Daniel Descalso	0.0236	0.0084 (6.7)	0.0105 (5.7)	0.0068 (7.1)	0.0100 (6.3)
Quintin Berry	0.0278	0.0074 (6.9)	0.0074 (6.8)	0.0074 (6.7)	0.0074 (7.1)
Aaron Hill	0.0120	0.0036 (5.9)	0.0025 (6.5)	0.0028 (6.1)	0.0045 (5.8)
Orlando Hudson	0.0383	0.0100 (8.2)	0.0118 (7.5)	0.0087 (8.3)	0.0112 (8.0)
Elvis Andrus	0.0164	0.0078 (6.5)	0.0085 (5.8)	0.0082 (5.7)	0.0074 (7.2)
Melky Cabrera	0.0256	0.0091 (8.5)	0.0064 (9.7)	0.0079 (8.8)	0.0104 (8.2)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jason Kipnis	0.0172	0.0084	5.6
2	Danny Espinosa	0.0141	0.0051	5.6
3	Mike Aviles	0.0103	0.0000	5.3
4	Giancarlo Stanton	0.0147	0.0037	5.2
5	Jamey Carroll	0.0126	0.0024	5.2

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Trout	0.0052	0.0202	9.7
2	Tyler Colvin	0.0174	0.0340	7.6
3	Shane Victorino	0.0239	0.0136	6.7
4	Starlin Castro	0.0142	0.0223	5.8
5	Stephen Drew	0.0224	0.0048	5.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Michael Bourn	0.0130	0.0215	5.8
2	Jamey Carroll	0.0130	0.0024	5.7
3	Giancarlo Stanton	0.0149	0.0037	5.6
4	Tyler Colvin	0.0218	0.0340	5.5
5	Danny Espinosa	0.0131	0.0051	5.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jason Kipnis	0.0206	0.0084	7.5
2	Shane Victorino	0.0243	0.0136	6.4
3	Stephen Drew	0.0241	0.0048	5.9
4	Danny Espinosa	0.0152	0.0051	5.9
5	Yoenis Cespedes	0.0042	0.0137	5.7

Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Trout	0.0052	0.0169	0.0202	9.7	2.4	7.3
2	Bryan LaHair	0.0127	0.0027	0.0000	4.8	0.8	3.9
3	Tyler Colvin	0.0174	0.0255	0.0340	7.6	4.1	3.5
4	Chris Nelson	0.0046	0.0126	0.0117	2.8	0.1	2.6
5	Anthony Gose	0.0074	0.0202	0.0273	3.8	1.4	2.4
6	Seth Smith	0.0171	0.0124	0.0073	4.2	2.0	2.2
7	Gorkys Hernández	0.0074	0.0204	0.0268	3.4	1.2	2.2
8	Casper Wells	0.0047	0.0119	0.0153	3.4	1.2	2.2
9	Anthony Rizzo	0.0110	0.0055	0.0000	4.0	1.8	2.1
10	Joaquin Arias	0.0064	0.0127	0.0181	4.1	2.0	2.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Dexter Fowler	0.0279	0.0332	0.0343	3.3	0.8	2.5
2	Anthony Gose	0.0074	0.0202	0.0273	3.7	1.4	2.3
3	Gorkys Hernández	0.0074	0.0204	0.0268	3.3	1.2	2.1
4	Joaquin Arias	0.0074	0.0127	0.0181	3.6	2.0	1.6
5	Brennan Boesch	0.0102	0.0078	0.0056	2.3	0.8	1.5
6	Jemile Weeks	0.0154	0.0189	0.0208	2.7	1.3	1.4
7	Tyler Colvin	0.0218	0.0255	0.0340	5.5	4.1	1.4
8	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0116	0.0100	0.0027	5.3	4.0	1.3
9	Michael Bourn	0.0130	0.0156	0.0215	5.8	4.5	1.3
10	Mike Trout	0.0142	0.0169	0.0202	3.7	2.4	1.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jason Kipnis	0.0206	0.0172	0.0084	7.5	5.6	1.9
2	José Reyes	0.0294	0.0265	0.0205	5.6	3.9	1.7
3	Shane Victorino	0.0243	0.0215	0.0136	6.4	4.9	1.5
4	Norichika Aoki	0.0165	0.0134	0.0086	4.0	2.5	1.5
5	Carlos Gómez	0.0191	0.0154	0.0130	2.2	0.8	1.4
6	Dee Strange-Gordon	0.0207	0.0162	0.0082	3.8	2.5	1.3
7	Desmond Jennings	0.0150	0.0164	0.0185	2.6	1.5	1.1
8	A.J. Ellis	0.0088	0.0060	0.0032	2.3	1.2	1.1
9	Carlos Beltrán	0.0125	0.0103	0.0025	5.5	4.5	1.0
10	Rickie Weeks Jr.	0.0094	0.0103	0.0100	1.2	0.1	1.0

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Freddie Freeman	0.1468	0.1171 (19.6)	0.1076 (26.2)	0.1167 (20.5)	0.1175 (19.0)
Bryce Harper	0.1642	0.1015 (38.5)	0.1164 (30.4)	0.1075 (35.6)	0.0956 (41.7)
Albert Pujols	0.1269	0.1593 (20.4)	0.1593 (19.7)	0.1636 (22.6)	0.1549 (18.0)
Austin Jackson	0.1669	0.1308 (23.5)	0.1380 (19.8)	0.1369 (20.4)	0.1246 (26.9)
Wilin Rosario	0.1573	0.1041 (23.5)	0.1139 (19.8)	0.1161 (18.8)	0.0920 (28.3)
Mike Trout	0.2019	0.1463 (36.7)	0.1286 (48.8)	0.1303 (47.7)	0.1622 (26.1)
Melky Cabrera	0.1677	0.1200 (24.8)	0.1250 (22.9)	0.1183 (26.2)	0.1218 (23.6)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adrián González	0.1443	0.1096	22.4
2	Carlos Gómez	0.1162	0.1593	20.3
3	Yunel Escobar	0.1293	0.0954	19.4
4	A.J. Pierzynski	0.0964	0.1308	18.8
5	Jesus Montero	0.1183	0.0832	18.4
6	Hanley Ramirez	0.1467	0.1184	17.6
7	Delmon Young	0.1196	0.0888	17.5
8	Chase Headley	0.1131	0.1359	17.3
9	Jon Jay	0.1070	0.1394	17.3
10	Chris Denorfia	0.1034	0.1466	17.2

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chase Headley	0.1061	0.1359	23.0
2	A.J. Pierzynski	0.0918	0.1308	21.9
3	Justin Upton	0.1398	0.1704	21.2
4	Shane Victorino	0.1429	0.1081	21.1
5	Michael Saunders	0.0976	0.1284	18.8
6	Adam Dunn	0.1085	0.1341	18.6
7	Alex Rios	0.1197	0.1453	18.4
8	Adam Jones	0.1246	0.1478	18.3
9	Jesus Montero	0.1193	0.0832	18.3
10	Andrew McCutchen	0.1350	0.1590	18.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adrián González	0.1575	0.1096	30.7
2	Carlos Gómez	0.1000	0.1593	28.2
3	Yunel Escobar	0.1396	0.0954	25.0
4	Chris Denorfia	0.0891	0.1466	23.1
5	Andrew McCutchen	0.1277	0.1590	23.1
6	Darwin Barney	0.0882	0.1241	22.9
7	Jon Jay	0.0968	0.1394	22.9
8	Norichika Aoki	0.1027	0.1378	22.4
9	Prince Fielder	0.1528	0.1203	20.3
10	Jesus Montero	0.1218	0.0832	19.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Hanley Ramirez	0.1541	0.1184	23.0
2	Josh Hamilton	0.1273	0.1619	22.9
3	A.J. Pierzynski	0.0894	0.1308	22.1
4	Shane Victorino	0.1417	0.1081	21.6
5	David Ortiz	0.1147	0.1697	21.6
6	Chase Headley	0.1088	0.1359	19.8
7	Howie Kendrick	0.1296	0.0960	19.3
8	Kyle Seager	0.1260	0.0952	19.2
9	Justin Upton	0.1414	0.1704	19.0
10	Yadier Molina	0.0830	0.1155	19.0

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Moustakas	0.0888	0.1114	0.1124	16.4	1.8	14.6
2	Michael Saunders	0.0976	0.1186	0.1284	18.8	6.5	12.3
3	Mike Trout	0.1286	0.1463	0.2019	48.8	36.7	12.1
4	Giancarlo Stanton	0.1232	0.1437	0.1497	14.8	4.0	10.9
5	Adam Dunn	0.1085	0.1217	0.1341	18.6	9.2	9.4
6	Shane Victorino	0.1429	0.1280	0.1081	21.1	12.0	9.1
7	Pedro Álvarez	0.0979	0.1100	0.1092	8.5	0.7	7.8
8	Anthony Rizzo	0.0944	0.1131	0.1196	10.4	3.1	7.3
9	Ryan Doumit	0.0942	0.1067	0.1061	7.9	0.7	7.2
10	Ryan Roberts	0.1354	0.1205	0.1043	13.7	7.0	6.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Trout	0.1303	0.1463	0.2019	47.7	36.7	10.9
2	Everth Cabrera	0.0870	0.1085	0.1091	11.3	1.1	10.2
3	Prince Fielder	0.1528	0.1381	0.1203	20.3	11.0	9.4
4	Darwin Barney	0.0882	0.1020	0.1241	22.9	14.1	8.8
5	Andrew McCutchen	0.1277	0.1393	0.1590	23.1	14.5	8.6
6	Adrián González	0.1575	0.1443	0.1096	30.7	22.4	8.3
7	Michael Saunders	0.1053	0.1186	0.1284	14.4	6.5	7.9
8	Carlos Gómez	0.1000	0.1162	0.1593	28.2	20.3	7.8
9	Drew Stubbs	0.1092	0.1213	0.1379	17.2	10.0	7.2
10	Norichika Aoki	0.1027	0.1138	0.1378	22.4	15.2	7.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Cameron Maybin	0.1450	0.1283	0.1194	13.6	3.9	9.7
2	Shane Victorino	0.1417	0.1280	0.1081	21.6	12.0	9.6
3	Carlos Beltrán	0.1123	0.1260	0.1341	14.2	6.2	8.1
4	Everth Cabrera	0.1300	0.1085	0.1091	8.8	1.1	7.7
5	Kyle Seager	0.1260	0.1151	0.0952	19.2	11.7	7.5
6	Nelson Cruz	0.1205	0.1327	0.1340	9.5	2.1	7.4
7	David Murphy	0.1055	0.1187	0.1248	10.7	4.1	6.5
8	Will Middlebrooks	0.0717	0.0952	0.1189	13.9	7.3	6.5
9	Josh Hamilton	0.1273	0.1380	0.1619	22.9	16.5	6.4
10	Chris Davis	0.1054	0.1167	0.1335	16.5	10.5	6.0

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Kyle Seager	0.1321	0.0934 (25.1)	0.0877 (30.2)	0.0959 (23.8)	0.0909 (26.9)
Chase Headley	0.1645	0.0922 (50.5)	0.0980 (47.9)	0.0858 (55.3)	0.0986 (46.2)
Jeff Francoeur	0.0813	0.1255 (26.8)	0.1254 (25.5)	0.1294 (28.8)	0.1216 (24.3)
Carlos Ruiz	0.1615	0.0927 (28.9)	0.1055 (24.4)	0.0862 (31.9)	0.0991 (26.4)
Josh Willingham	0.1789	0.1371 (25.6)	0.1404 (24.9)	0.1384 (25.1)	0.1357 (26.6)
Edwin Encarnación	0.1708	0.1271 (28.1)	0.1155 (36.9)	0.1324 (25.0)	0.1219 (31.6)
A.J. Pierzynski	0.1481	0.1004 (24.7)	0.1020 (25.0)	0.1033 (23.5)	0.0976 (26.3)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Miguel Cabrera	0.1597	0.1994	27.6
2	Alex Rodriguez	0.1598	0.1078	27.6
3	Jemile Weeks	0.0874	0.0391	24.7
4	Mike Trout	0.0913	0.1299	24.6
5	Josh Hamilton	0.1626	0.2013	24.5
6	Allen Craig	0.1320	0.1790	24.1
7	Will Middlebrooks	0.1056	0.1888	23.8
8	Alfonso Soriano	0.1370	0.1756	23.7
9	Carlos Pena	0.1410	0.1017	23.6
10	Carlos Beltrán	0.1185	0.1567	23.6

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Alex Rodriguez	0.1688	0.1078	31.3
2	Miguel Cabrera	0.1576	0.1994	30.5
3	Chris Davis	0.1049	0.1512	27.1
4	Josh Hamilton	0.1606	0.2013	27.1
5	Buster Posey	0.1275	0.1689	26.4
6	Dayan Viciedo	0.0975	0.1436	26.1
7	Zack Cozart	0.1036	0.0583	26.0
8	Jemile Weeks	0.0909	0.0391	25.5
9	Freddie Freeman	0.1150	0.1516	23.9
10	Wilin Rosario	0.1139	0.1667	23.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Allen Craig	0.1150	0.1790	33.1
2	Carlos Beltrán	0.1114	0.1567	28.3
3	Jemile Weeks	0.0926	0.0391	27.1
4	Jonathan Lucroy	0.0928	0.1676	26.0
5	Michael Young	0.1429	0.1029	25.8
6	Alfonso Soriano	0.1350	0.1756	25.2
7	Shane Victorino	0.1209	0.0826	25.2
8	Chris Heisey	0.1474	0.0827	24.1
9	Chris Johnson	0.0991	0.1439	23.9
10	Carlos Pena	0.1412	0.1017	23.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Alex Rodriguez	0.1738	0.1078	34.9
2	Miguel Cabrera	0.1507	0.1994	34.1
3	Josh Reddick	0.0833	0.1263	29.0
4	Mike Trout	0.0855	0.1299	28.4
5	Josh Hamilton	0.1582	0.2013	27.5
6	Will Middlebrooks	0.0944	0.1888	27.0
7	Buster Posey	0.1284	0.1689	24.7
8	Alex Rios	0.1041	0.1422	24.4
9	Wilin Rosario	0.1104	0.1667	24.0
10	Jose Altuve	0.0965	0.0587	23.7

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Chris Davis	0.1049	0.1296	0.1512	27.1	12.1	15.0
2	Giancarlo Stanton	0.1393	0.1664	0.1717	17.2	2.6	14.6
3	Freddie Freeman	0.1150	0.1358	0.1516	23.9	9.8	14.1
4	Jay Bruce	0.1343	0.1545	0.1564	15.2	1.1	14.1
5	Dayan Viciedo	0.0975	0.1194	0.1436	26.1	13.1	13.0
6	Alejandro De Aza	0.1172	0.0931	0.0855	17.4	4.5	12.9
7	Mike Moustakas	0.0939	0.1252	0.1189	16.5	3.9	12.6
8	Norichika Aoki	0.1108	0.0895	0.0850	14.0	2.7	11.3
9	Anthony Rizzo	0.0909	0.1418	0.1304	15.3	4.2	11.0
10	Josh Reddick	0.0989	0.1118	0.1263	19.8	9.7	10.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Ichiro Suzuki	0.1007	0.0826	0.0830	11.5	0.2	11.3
2	Jesus Montero	0.1450	0.1259	0.1121	17.9	7.7	10.2
3	Scott Podsednik	0.1108	0.0643	0.0556	11.8	1.9	9.9
4	Jason Kubel	0.1262	0.1427	0.1576	18.2	8.5	9.7
5	Ryan Ludwick	0.1277	0.1466	0.1695	19.9	10.8	9.1
6	Albert Pujols	0.1847	0.1706	0.1567	18.5	9.4	9.1
7	Allen Craig	0.1150	0.1320	0.1790	33.1	24.1	9.1
8	Raul Ibanez	0.1155	0.1346	0.1459	13.1	4.7	8.3
9	Aaron Hill	0.0997	0.1114	0.1272	18.7	10.5	8.2
10	Dustin Ackley	0.1033	0.0909	0.0749	18.7	10.8	7.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Josh Reddick	0.0833	0.1118	0.1263	29.0	9.7	19.4
2	Ichiro Suzuki	0.0645	0.0826	0.0830	12.4	0.2	12.2
3	Daniel Murphy	0.1287	0.1138	0.1062	13.7	4.7	9.0
4	Jamey Carroll	0.0421	0.0582	0.0745	17.5	8.7	8.8
5	Ike Davis	0.1241	0.1380	0.1541	17.6	9.3	8.3
6	Austin Jackson	0.0689	0.0815	0.1070	23.6	15.7	7.9
7	Alex Rodriguez	0.1738	0.1598	0.1078	34.9	27.6	7.3
8	Giancarlo Stanton	0.1530	0.1664	0.1717	9.4	2.6	6.8
9	Chris Snyder	0.1474	0.1209	0.0930	14.0	7.2	6.8
10	Seth Smith	0.1015	0.1166	0.1179	7.3	0.5	6.7

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Alexi Casilla	0.2958	0.1347 (52.6)	0.1443 (49.3)	0.1321 (52.2)	0.1373 (52.9)
Shane Victorino	0.2378	0.1347 (68.9)	0.1449 (61.8)	0.1267 (71.7)	0.1429 (65.7)
Carlos Gómez	0.3936	0.2430 (68.2)	0.2000 (87.5)	0.2272 (73.7)	0.2588 (62.6)
Jordan Schafer	0.3034	0.1715 (47.6)	0.1562 (52.9)	0.1670 (47.9)	0.1765 (47.0)
Tony Campana	0.5882	0.3126 (53.0)	0.2778 (59.6)	0.2957 (55.5)	0.3284 (50.6)
Dewayne Wise	0.3800	0.1714 (49.9)	0.1455 (56.0)	0.1591 (52.0)	0.1837 (47.8)
Norichika Aoki	0.1935	0.0538 (82.4)	0.0738 (70.4)	0.0521 (81.2)	0.0556 (83.3)
Alexei Ramirez	0.1429	0.0541 (55.3)	0.0662 (47.5)	0.0516 (54.5)	0.0566 (55.9)
Jason Kipnis	0.1685	0.0799 (59.7)	0.0882 (53.9)	0.0738 (61.3)	0.0861 (57.8)
Emilio Bonifácio	0.3704	0.1814 (51.9)	0.1788 (52.5)	0.1666 (54.9)	0.1962 (48.7)
Quintin Berry	0.2360	0.0738 (53.6)	0.0738 (53.5)	0.0738 (52.4)	0.0738 (54.7)
Elvis Andrus	0.1055	0.1806 (53.1)	0.1714 (46.9)	0.1797 (55.2)	0.1814 (51.3)
Everth Cabrera	0.3667	0.2501 (52.5)	0.1754 (85.8)	0.2267 (61.3)	0.2736 (43.4)
Omar Infante	0.1360	0.0293 (62.9)	0.0395 (56.7)	0.0288 (61.0)	0.0299 (64.6)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Michael Bourn	0.2871	0.2111	53.2
2	Michael Saunders	0.1004	0.1810	44.8
3	Matt Kemp	0.1760	0.0763	44.6
4	John Mayberry Jr.	0.0999	0.0094	43.2
5	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0502	0.1224	42.6
6	Jason Heyward	0.0719	0.1355	41.6

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Trout	0.0938	0.2579	104.8
2	Darin Mastroianni	0.0600	0.4038	63.9
3	Jose Altuve	0.1013	0.1964	59.9
4	Dee Strange-Gordon	0.2235	0.4000	58.2
5	Alcides Escobar	0.1278	0.2059	50.5
6	Anthony Gose	0.0738	0.3333	49.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Anthony Gose	0.0738	0.3333	48.4
2	Michael Bourn	0.2749	0.2111	47.3
3	Michael Saunders	0.0974	0.1810	44.3
4	Jeff Francoeur	0.0994	0.0312	43.2
5	Michael Brantley	0.1396	0.0727	42.8
6	Dee Strange-Gordon	0.2678	0.4000	42.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Michael Bourn	0.2995	0.2111	59.6
2	Matt Kemp	0.1939	0.0763	51.2
3	John Mayberry Jr.	0.1089	0.0094	45.9
4	Martín Prado	0.0278	0.0904	45.8
5	Michael Saunders	0.1034	0.1810	44.9
6	Paul Goldschmidt	0.0497	0.1224	44.9

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Trout	0.0938	0.2129	0.2579	104.8	29.0	75.9
2	Anthony Gose	0.0738	0.3397	0.3333	49.0	1.1	47.9
3	Jose Altuve	0.1013	0.1688	0.1964	59.9	17.6	42.3
4	Everth Cabrera	0.1754	0.2501	0.3667	85.8	52.5	33.3
5	Alcides Escobar	0.1278	0.1703	0.2059	50.5	23.3	27.2
6	Jesus Montero	0.0492	0.0007	0.0000	27.2	0.2	27.1
7	Pedro Ciriaco	0.0926	0.1886	0.2462	41.7	15.8	26.0
8	Darin Mastroianni	0.0600	0.2001	0.4038	63.9	38.0	26.0
9	Jordany Valdespin	0.0738	0.2000	0.2500	36.3	10.4	25.9
10	Justin Ruggiano	0.0678	0.1446	0.1707	32.9	8.5	24.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Anthony Gose	0.0738	0.3397	0.3333	48.4	1.1	47.3
2	Jordany Valdespin	0.0738	0.2000	0.2500	35.6	10.4	25.2
3	Yasmani Grandal	0.0738	0.0000	0.0000	17.4	0.1	17.4
4	Xavier Avery	0.0738	0.2011	0.2500	18.5	5.3	13.2
5	Daniel Nava	0.0738	0.0339	0.0357	13.1	0.7	12.5
6	Ichiro Suzuki	0.1527	0.1733	0.1824	17.4	6.2	11.2
7	Omar Quintanilla	0.0738	0.0213	0.0000	14.7	4.0	10.7
8	Scott Moore	0.0738	0.0349	0.0000	17.6	7.9	9.7
9	Gorkys Hernández	0.0738	0.1333	0.1842	18.5	8.9	9.7
10	Jose Altuve	0.1502	0.1688	0.1964	27.0	17.6	9.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	José Reyes	0.2357	0.2170	0.2139	13.0	2.0	11.0
2	David Wright	0.1282	0.1085	0.0758	32.7	21.7	10.9
3	Bryce Harper	0.1719	0.1533	0.1241	26.3	17.2	9.1
4	Nelson Cruz	0.1228	0.1058	0.0588	38.7	29.9	8.8
5	Brett Lawrie	0.1622	0.1433	0.0977	32.6	24.2	8.3
6	Hanley Ramirez	0.1875	0.1720	0.1329	34.0	25.8	8.1
7	Justin Maxwell	0.2105	0.1854	0.1233	29.4	21.7	7.7
8	Carlos González	0.1538	0.1375	0.1274	13.2	5.7	7.5
9	Nyjer Morgan	0.1880	0.1637	0.1429	13.3	6.6	6.7
10	Matt Kemp	0.1939	0.1760	0.0763	51.2	44.6	6.6

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Alex Rios	0.3041	0.2605 (28.8)	0.2530 (36.1)	0.2622 (28.2)	0.2589 (29.8)
Andrew McCutchen	0.3272	0.2725 (37.7)	0.2726 (40.3)	0.2715 (38.8)	0.2735 (37.0)
David Wright	0.3064	0.2715 (24.3)	0.2757 (24.1)	0.2742 (22.9)	0.2689 (26.0)
Austin Jackson	0.3002	0.2618 (24.5)	0.2676 (23.4)	0.2643 (23.4)	0.2594 (26.0)
Prince Fielder	0.3133	0.2772 (25.8)	0.2821 (25.2)	0.2800 (24.4)	0.2745 (27.6)
Aaron Hill	0.3021	0.2607 (28.6)	0.2465 (40.7)	0.2563 (32.0)	0.2652 (25.6)
Buster Posey	0.3358	0.2869 (30.7)	0.2830 (35.5)	0.2865 (31.3)	0.2872 (30.5)
Torii Hunter	0.3127	0.2613 (30.8)	0.2734 (26.1)	0.2615 (31.1)	0.2612 (30.8)
Eric Hosmer	0.2318	0.2924 (35.5)	0.2817 (26.6)	0.2808 (28.1)	0.3040 (42.4)
Mike Trout	0.3256	0.2605 (42.5)	0.2421 (56.8)	0.2544 (46.8)	0.2666 (38.5)
Melky Cabrera	0.3464	0.2814 (33.3)	0.2816 (35.1)	0.2783 (35.2)	0.2845 (31.7)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Derek Jeter	0.2742	0.3163	32.1
2	Carlos Ruiz	0.2650	0.3253	25.9
3	Jonathan Lucroy	0.2524	0.3196	23.7
4	Adrian Beltré	0.2869	0.3212	23.4
5	Jeff Keppinger	0.2709	0.3247	23.0
6	Justin Ruggiano	0.2422	0.3125	22.9
7	Adam LaRoche	0.2375	0.2715	22.8
8	Jemile Weeks	0.2664	0.2207	22.6
9	Andy Dirks	0.2581	0.3217	22.3

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tyler Colvin	0.2236	0.2905	32.6
2	Jemile Weeks	0.2883	0.2207	31.8
3	Alcides Escobar	0.2505	0.2926	30.7
4	Anthony Rizzo	0.2129	0.2849	28.5
5	Andy Dirks	0.2542	0.3217	25.0
6	Jordan Pacheco	0.2655	0.3095	24.9
7	Dustin Ackley	0.2676	0.2257	24.4
8	Brendan Ryan	0.2511	0.1941	24.3
9	Jeff Keppinger	0.2743	0.3247	23.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Carlos Ruiz	0.2610	0.3253	27.9
2	Derek Jeter	0.2809	0.3163	27.6
3	Ike Davis	0.2745	0.2274	26.4
4	Alex Gordon	0.2605	0.2944	25.9
5	Adrian Beltré	0.2849	0.3212	25.1
6	Jonathan Lucroy	0.2506	0.3196	24.6
7	Justin Ruggiano	0.2388	0.3125	24.2
8	Yoenis Cespedes	0.2496	0.2916	23.8
9	Andy Dirks	0.2556	0.3217	23.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Derek Jeter	0.2675	0.3163	37.0
2	Jordan Pacheco	0.2623	0.3095	24.5
3	Carlos Ruiz	0.2690	0.3253	24.2
4	Adam LaRoche	0.2363	0.2715	23.6
5	Jeff Keppinger	0.2696	0.3247	23.6
6	Brendan Ryan	0.2447	0.1941	23.2
7	Jonathan Lucroy	0.2542	0.3196	23.1
8	Jemile Weeks	0.2669	0.2207	23.0
9	Dustin Ackley	0.2607	0.2257	22.5

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Norichika Aoki	0.2585	0.2819	0.2885	20.8	4.7	16.1
2	Jose Altuve	0.2673	0.2881	0.2899	17.6	2.0	15.6
3	Mike Trout	0.2421	0.2605	0.3256	56.8	42.5	14.3
4	Alcides Escobar	0.2505	0.2684	0.2926	30.7	16.6	14.1
5	Anthony Rizzo	0.2129	0.2431	0.2849	28.5	15.9	12.6
6	Aaron Hill	0.2465	0.2607	0.3021	40.7	28.6	12.2
7	Brandon Belt	0.2429	0.2637	0.2749	17.7	6.0	11.7
8	Tyler Colvin	0.2236	0.2445	0.2905	32.6	21.4	11.2
9	DJ LeMahieu	0.2546	0.2951	0.2969	11.8	0.8	11.0
10	Derek Norris	0.2585	0.1936	0.2010	12.1	2.0	10.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Cody Ransom	0.2585	0.2249	0.2195	10.4	1.1	9.3
2	Alex Gordon	0.2605	0.2692	0.2944	25.9	19.1	6.8
3	Josh Reddick	0.2566	0.2472	0.2422	8.3	2.4	5.9
4	Joe Mather	0.2585	0.2343	0.2089	11.6	5.8	5.7
5	Ichiro Suzuki	0.2963	0.2873	0.2830	7.4	1.9	5.5
6	Ike Davis	0.2745	0.2646	0.2274	26.4	21.0	5.4
7	Brandon Barnes	0.2585	0.2068	0.2041	5.5	0.1	5.4
8	Anthony Gose	0.2585	0.2304	0.2229	6.3	1.2	5.2
9	Norichika Aoki	0.2738	0.2819	0.2885	9.8	4.7	5.1
10	Yoenis Cespedes	0.2496	0.2573	0.2916	23.8	19.3	4.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Eric Hosmer	0.3040	0.2924	0.2318	42.4	35.5	7.0
2	Bryce Harper	0.2376	0.2485	0.2702	20.2	13.7	6.5
3	Jason Heyward	0.2546	0.2627	0.2692	10.3	5.1	5.2
4	Grégor Blanco	0.2162	0.2274	0.2443	13.3	8.3	5.0
5	Derek Jeter	0.2675	0.2742	0.3163	37.0	32.1	4.9
6	Jordan Pacheco	0.2623	0.2713	0.3095	24.5	20.0	4.5
7	Rod Barajas	0.2508	0.2399	0.2056	15.8	11.9	4.0
8	Brandon Crawford	0.2245	0.2329	0.2483	11.9	8.0	3.9
9	Derek Norris	0.1768	0.1936	0.2010	5.9	2.0	3.9
10	Clint Barmes	0.2489	0.2412	0.2286	9.4	5.5	3.9

On-Base Percentage

Everybody Missed for On-Base Percentage

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Miguel Montero	0.3909	0.3367 (33.3)	0.3425 (32.3)	0.3379 (34.3)	0.3355 (32.9)
Andrew McCutchen	0.3997	0.3620 (28.0)	0.3599 (32.1)	0.3625 (29.6)	0.3615 (27.1)
Hanley Ramirez	0.3223	0.3693 (28.7)	0.3678 (25.0)	0.3736 (29.7)	0.3649 (27.0)
Austin Jackson	0.3772	0.3256 (34.3)	0.3289 (34.7)	0.3297 (33.5)	0.3215 (35.7)
Melky Cabrera	0.3900	0.3294 (32.3)	0.3322 (32.9)	0.3292 (33.8)	0.3295 (31.4)
Joey Votto	0.4737	0.4023 (35.8)	0.4054 (36.2)	0.4024 (37.1)	0.4022 (35.0)
Adrián González	0.3436	0.3896 (28.8)	0.3933 (28.5)	0.3955 (30.9)	0.3836 (25.9)
David Murphy	0.3796	0.3316 (27.0)	0.3377 (26.0)	0.3350 (26.7)	0.3282 (27.9)
Dustin Ackley	0.2939	0.3472 (33.0)	0.3392 (25.0)	0.3463 (30.6)	0.3481 (34.9)
Aaron Hill	0.3598	0.3161 (31.8)	0.3031 (43.2)	0.3140 (35.1)	0.3183 (29.2)
Buster Posey	0.4082	0.3582 (32.9)	0.3459 (42.9)	0.3587 (34.3)	0.3578 (32.0)
Edwin Encarnación	0.3835	0.3317 (35.9)	0.3234 (43.9)	0.3328 (37.0)	0.3306 (35.5)
Albert Pujols	0.3433	0.3956 (32.4)	0.3915 (27.0)	0.4031 (35.6)	0.3881 (28.6)
Mike Trout	0.3991	0.3338 (44.2)	0.3082 (63.1)	0.3294 (48.8)	0.3383 (40.2)
Yunel Escobar	0.2995	0.3551 (31.4)	0.3560 (29.5)	0.3593 (32.2)	0.3508 (30.0)

Individual Misses for On-Base Percentage

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Casey Kotchman	0.3428	0.2797	29.6
2	David Freese	0.3264	0.3721	28.1
3	David Wright	0.3564	0.3910	25.8
4	Robinson Canó	0.3459	0.3788	25.7
5	Justin Ruggiano	0.2990	0.3742	25.3

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	David Wright	0.3558	0.3910	28.9
2	Chase Headley	0.3436	0.3763	28.4
3	Alcides Escobar	0.2978	0.3312	26.8
4	Alex Rios	0.3007	0.3344	26.6
5	Michael Brantley	0.3156	0.3481	24.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ike Davis	0.3646	0.3082	29.0
2	Casey Kotchman	0.3438	0.2797	28.7
3	Robinson Canó	0.3448	0.3788	28.3
4	David Freese	0.3296	0.3721	28.0
5	Jon Jay	0.3264	0.3732	26.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Casey Kotchman	0.3417	0.2797	30.0
2	David Freese	0.3233	0.3721	28.9
3	David Wright	0.3508	0.3910	28.4
4	Eric Hosmer	0.3539	0.3043	28.4
5	Derek Jeter	0.3294	0.3624	25.9

Most Unique Misses for On-Base Percentage

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Brandon Belt	0.3173	0.3600	0.3602	24.0	1.9	22.1
2	Mike Trout	0.3082	0.3338	0.3991	63.1	44.2	19.0
3	Norichika Aoki	0.3236	0.3475	0.3546	22.9	6.5	16.5
4	Michael Saunders	0.2800	0.3017	0.3062	18.9	4.7	14.2
5	Giancarlo Stanton	0.3417	0.3630	0.3613	13.8	1.1	12.7
6	Michael Brantley	0.3156	0.3314	0.3481	24.7	12.5	12.1
7	Aaron Hill	0.3031	0.3161	0.3598	43.2	31.8	11.4
8	Jesus Flores	0.3143	0.2726	0.2483	17.2	6.0	11.1
9	Paul Goldschmidt	0.3299	0.3448	0.3595	22.0	10.9	11.1
10	Zack Cozart	0.3288	0.3064	0.2876	19.9	8.9	11.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Joe Mather	0.3236	0.2898	0.2562	14.7	7.2	7.5
2	Brandon Barnes	0.3236	0.2580	0.2500	7.0	0.4	6.6
3	Ike Davis	0.3646	0.3514	0.3082	29.0	22.9	6.1
4	Yoenis Cespedes	0.3133	0.3210	0.3556	26.4	20.8	5.7
5	Ichiro Suzuki	0.3392	0.3282	0.3070	16.9	11.5	5.4
6	Alex Gordon	0.3488	0.3534	0.3675	18.4	13.0	5.4
7	Jordany Valdespin	0.3236	0.2843	0.2857	6.4	1.1	5.3
8	Mike Trout	0.3294	0.3338	0.3991	48.8	44.2	4.6
9	Xavier Nady	0.3236	0.2944	0.2530	10.6	6.2	4.4
10	Freddy Galvis	0.3236	0.2994	0.2538	12.6	8.3	4.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Josh Reddick	0.2890	0.3001	0.3051	12.2	6.0	6.2
2	Eric Hosmer	0.3539	0.3470	0.3043	28.4	23.1	5.2
3	Derek Jeter	0.3294	0.3378	0.3624	25.9	21.1	4.8
4	Norichika Aoki	0.3379	0.3475	0.3546	11.0	6.5	4.5
5	Ángel Pagán	0.3217	0.3303	0.3379	12.0	7.6	4.5
6	José Bautista	0.4081	0.3999	0.3584	19.0	15.0	4.0
7	Chris Davis	0.2988	0.3075	0.3256	16.3	12.4	3.9
8	Chipper Jones	0.3430	0.3529	0.3772	16.3	12.7	3.6
9	Jordan Pacheco	0.3165	0.3254	0.3413	13.5	10.0	3.6
10	Brian Bixler	0.3236	0.2896	0.2526	6.6	3.2	3.4

Slugging Percentage

Everybody Missed for Slugging Percentage

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Alex Rios	0.5157	0.4111 (67.4)	0.3984 (79.3)	0.4180 (66.5)	0.4043 (69.7)
Brandon Moss	0.5962	0.3916 (60.8)	0.3602 (71.8)	0.4083 (57.5)	0.3750 (64.7)
Carlos Pena	0.3541	0.4485 (56.2)	0.4565 (57.5)	0.4504 (54.0)	0.4467 (57.1)
Chase Headley	0.4983	0.3943 (73.3)	0.3908 (79.7)	0.3966 (75.5)	0.3919 (72.6)
Ian Desmond	0.5107	0.3821 (70.7)	0.3816 (74.2)	0.3859 (71.7)	0.3784 (71.0)
Andrew McCutchen	0.5531	0.4531 (67.8)	0.4492 (74.3)	0.4515 (72.6)	0.4547 (64.5)
Carlos Ruiz	0.5403	0.3849 (65.7)	0.4146 (55.7)	0.3867 (67.3)	0.3832 (65.1)
Austin Jackson	0.4788	0.3806 (61.1)	0.3906 (58.5)	0.3860 (61.2)	0.3752 (62.3)
Yadier Molina	0.5010	0.3934 (61.0)	0.4061 (57.1)	0.3902 (65.9)	0.3967 (57.3)
Aaron Hill	0.5222	0.4196 (69.0)	0.4101 (79.2)	0.4150 (75.8)	0.4242 (63.7)
Buster Posey	0.5491	0.4502 (60.7)	0.4437 (68.2)	0.4603 (58.0)	0.4401 (64.9)
Edwin Encarnación	0.5572	0.4566 (65.2)	0.4444 (76.8)	0.4560 (69.3)	0.4573 (62.7)
Mike Trout	0.5635	0.4102 (98.4)	0.3968 (110.7)	0.4065 (104.3)	0.4139 (93.9)

Individual Misses for Slugging Percentage

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Eric Hosmer	0.4665	0.3589	63.9
2	Adam LaRoche	0.4139	0.5096	62.5
3	Justin Upton	0.5217	0.4296	57.4
4	A.J. Pierzynski	0.3929	0.5010	56.6
5	Dustin Ackley	0.4017	0.3278	48.8
6	Adrián González	0.5343	0.4626	48.5
7	Justin Ruggiano	0.3851	0.5347	48.1

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ryan Ludwick	0.4013	0.5308	64.2
2	Michael Saunders	0.3333	0.4320	58.2
3	Giancarlo Stanton	0.5000	0.6080	57.4
4	Chris Davis	0.4060	0.5010	57.0
5	Tyler Colvin	0.4161	0.5310	54.9
6	Michael Young	0.4600	0.3699	54.4
7	Jemile Weeks	0.4158	0.3041	53.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Adam LaRoche	0.4129	0.5096	66.7
2	Justin Upton	0.5383	0.4296	64.3
3	A.J. Pierzynski	0.3918	0.5010	60.1
4	Eric Hosmer	0.4594	0.3589	56.3
5	Melky Cabrera	0.4210	0.5163	50.9
6	Justin Ruggiano	0.3826	0.5347	50.7
7	Adrián González	0.5429	0.4626	50.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Eric Hosmer	0.4736	0.3589	70.2
2	Adam LaRoche	0.4148	0.5096	59.7
3	Dustin Ackley	0.4098	0.3278	56.5
4	A.J. Pierzynski	0.3939	0.5010	54.3
5	Brett Lawrie	0.4983	0.4049	51.5
6	Michael Saunders	0.3394	0.4320	49.7
7	Eric Chavez	0.3361	0.4964	49.4

Most Unique Misses for Slugging Percentage

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Anthony Rizzo	0.3454	0.4434	0.4629	45.7	7.5	38.2
2	Pedro Álvarez	0.3894	0.4467	0.4667	49.1	12.1	37.0
3	Giancarlo Stanton	0.5000	0.5600	0.6080	57.4	24.4	33.0
4	Paul Goldschmidt	0.4389	0.4930	0.4903	34.0	1.2	32.8
5	Chris Davis	0.4060	0.4570	0.5010	57.0	25.2	31.9
6	Dayan Viciedo	0.4048	0.4439	0.4436	24.6	0.2	24.4
7	Brian Bogusevic	0.4189	0.3548	0.2986	45.9	22.4	23.5
8	Jason Heyward	0.4220	0.4516	0.4787	41.2	18.1	23.1
9	Jay Bruce	0.4673	0.4938	0.5143	33.9	13.4	20.4
10	Seth Smith	0.4722	0.4225	0.4204	20.0	0.6	19.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Brian Dozier	0.4133	0.3526	0.3323	25.4	6.6	18.8
2	Gorkys Hernández	0.4133	0.3301	0.3013	18.3	4.9	13.4
3	Alex Gordon	0.4423	0.4534	0.4548	13.6	1.6	12.0
4	Scott Podsednik	0.4133	0.3519	0.3518	11.9	0.1	11.8
5	Jason Kubel	0.4577	0.4724	0.5059	31.1	19.6	11.5
6	Will Rhymes	0.4133	0.3252	0.2846	16.8	5.5	11.3
7	Joe Mather	0.4133	0.3657	0.3244	20.1	9.8	10.2
8	Ike Davis	0.4937	0.4711	0.4624	14.6	4.6	10.0
9	Paul Goldschmidt	0.5145	0.4930	0.4903	10.5	1.2	9.4
10	Jesus Montero	0.4799	0.4591	0.3864	48.2	39.8	8.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Josh Reddick	0.3907	0.4219	0.4632	47.0	28.3	18.7
2	Jason Heyward	0.4271	0.4516	0.4787	31.9	18.1	13.8
3	Rod Barajas	0.4396	0.4129	0.3427	35.9	25.1	10.8
4	Jay Bruce	0.4744	0.4938	0.5143	23.6	13.4	10.2
5	José Reyes	0.4708	0.4602	0.4330	28.9	18.9	10.0
6	Brett Lawrie	0.4983	0.4857	0.4049	51.5	42.9	8.6
7	Paul Goldschmidt	0.4715	0.4930	0.4903	9.5	1.2	8.3
8	Marco Scutaro	0.4151	0.4070	0.4048	8.8	0.9	7.8
9	Dustin Ackley	0.4098	0.4017	0.3278	56.5	48.8	7.7
10	Jordan Pacheco	0.3629	0.3813	0.4211	28.0	20.4	7.6

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Daniel Hudson	202	781 (579.2)	761 (559.0)	748 (546.4)	814 (612.0)
Chris Carpenter	72	784 (711.7)	820 (748.0)	714 (642.4)	853 (781.0)
John Lannan	144	716 (571.7)	731 (587.0)	643 (499.5)	788 (644.0)
Tim Stauffer	24	650 (625.9)	629 (605.0)	684 (660.0)	616 (591.9)
Chris Narveson	41	588 (546.6)	642 (601.0)	551 (510.1)	624 (583.1)
Mike Pelfrey	85	752 (666.5)	774 (689.0)	714 (629.0)	789 (704.1)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Barry Enright	673	20	652.9
2	John Ely	650	19	631.0
3	Thad Weber	654	24	630.1
4	Todd Redmond	648	22	625.9
5	D.J. Mitchell	649	24	624.9
6	Eric Hacker	636	45	591.1
7	Adam Warren	606	17	588.9
8	Pedro Villarreal	576	3	573.0
9	John Danks	801	238	563.4
10	Roberto Hernandez	623	62	560.6

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Wei-Yin Chen	100	818	718.0
2	Yu Darvish	100	816	716.0
3	Roberto Hernandez	756	62	694.0
4	Lucas Harrell	207	827	620.0
5	Matt Moore	183	759	576.0
6	Félix Doubront	161	709	548.0
7	Lance Lynn	198	744	546.0
8	Brad Penny	669	133	536.0
9	Carl Pavano	801	268	533.0
10	Brett Myers	790	272	518.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Lucas Harrell	172	827	655.0
2	John Danks	788	238	549.8
3	Scott Diamond	180	714	533.9
4	Carl Pavano	800	268	532.3
5	Wade Miley	286	807	520.6
6	Cory Luebke	643	130	512.9
7	Jair Jurrjens	705	227	477.5
8	Jeff Samardzija	247	723	475.8
9	Jose Quintana	100	568	468.0
10	Dustin Moseley	490	22	467.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Roberto Hernandez	784	62	721.9
2	Brad Hand	681	23	658.1
3	Barry Enright	673	20	652.9
4	Julio Teheran	668	24	644.0
5	Brandon Dickson	675	32	643.0
6	John Ely	650	19	631.0
7	Thad Weber	654	24	630.1
8	Todd Redmond	648	22	625.9
9	D.J. Mitchell	649	24	624.9
10	Eric Hacker	636	45	591.1

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Yu Darvish	100	780	816	716.0	35.6	680.4
2	Wei-Yin Chen	100	697	818	718.0	120.9	597.1
3	Matt Moore	183	640	759	576.0	118.7	457.3
4	Adam Wainwright	338	717	831	493.0	113.7	379.3
5	Chris Sale	271	613	772	501.0	158.9	342.1
6	Tommy Milone	319	639	791	472.0	152.4	319.6
7	Brett Myers	790	473	272	518.0	200.7	317.3
8	Jose Quintana	100	417	568	468.0	151.0	317.0
9	Henderson Alvarez	401	706	807	406.0	100.8	305.2
10	Félix Doubront	161	458	709	548.0	251.0	297.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jose Quintana	100	417	568	468.0	151.0	317.0
2	Eric Stults	100	391	413	313.0	21.9	291.1
3	Joe Kelly	100	540	457	357.0	83.1	273.9
4	Craig Stammen	91	348	370	279.0	22.5	256.5
5	Cole De Vries	100	394	375	275.0	19.1	255.9
6	Scott Diamond	180	424	714	533.9	289.5	244.4
7	Zach McAllister	217	454	543	325.8	88.9	237.0
8	Tommy Hunter	155	379	573	418.2	193.6	224.6
9	Lucas Harrell	172	394	827	655.0	432.5	222.5
10	Drew Smyly	100	514	416	316.0	98.0	218.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Brandon Dickson	675	395	32	643.0	363.2	279.8
2	Brett Myers	729	473	272	457.0	200.7	256.3
3	Clayton Mortensen	629	375	173	456.1	202.0	254.1
4	Casey Coleman	664	421	119	545.1	302.4	242.7
5	Jeanmar Gómez	789	547	395	394.1	152.4	241.7
6	Martín Pérez	618	377	177	440.9	199.5	241.4
7	Ryan Verdugo	553	323	15	537.9	308.2	229.7
8	Jeurys Familia	556	329	52	504.0	276.7	227.3
9	Brad Mills	596	370	18	578.0	351.9	226.1
10	Rick Van Den Hurk	578	353	16	562.0	336.8	225.2

wOBA

Everybody Missed for wOBA

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jonathan Sánchez	0.4175	0.3082 (30.0)	0.3071 (35.5)	0.3137 (29.3)	0.3027 (30.6)
Gio Gonzalez	0.2597	0.2826 (33.2)	0.3019 (36.2)	0.2872 (34.3)	0.2779 (32.4)
Kris Medlen	0.2340	0.2801 (33.0)	0.3132 (42.2)	0.2786 (30.6)	0.2815 (35.7)
Ricky Romero	0.3586	0.2910 (41.5)	0.3054 (42.5)	0.2994 (37.3)	0.2826 (45.4)
Tommy Hanson	0.3473	0.2758 (41.0)	0.2973 (36.5)	0.2873 (34.8)	0.2644 (46.9)
Kyle Lohse	0.2761	0.2991 (35.0)	0.3200 (39.6)	0.3073 (39.3)	0.2910 (31.2)
Tim Lincecum	0.3309	0.2665 (38.7)	0.2894 (32.6)	0.2762 (33.4)	0.2568 (43.6)
Iván Nova	0.3671	0.3020 (35.6)	0.3124 (39.5)	0.3044 (36.3)	0.2996 (34.6)
Randy Wolf	0.3735	0.3069 (34.3)	0.3176 (37.7)	0.3198 (27.6)	0.2941 (40.7)
Ubaldo Jiménez	0.3566	0.2835 (44.7)	0.3032 (41.4)	0.2945 (38.5)	0.2726 (50.5)
Jon Lester	0.3332	0.2817 (29.8)	0.3003 (27.2)	0.2871 (28.0)	0.2763 (31.3)
Fernando Rodney	0.1901	0.2968 (35.0)	0.3215 (37.6)	0.2966 (34.1)	0.2970 (36.1)

Individual Misses for wOBA

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Nick Blackburn	0.3175	0.4050	31.9
2	R.A. Dickey	0.2935	0.2778	30.8
3	Wade Miley	0.3128	0.2943	29.0
4	Chris Tillman	0.3400	0.2779	27.6
5	Dan Haren	0.2769	0.3297	26.4
6	Luke Hochevar	0.3030	0.3530	26.0
7	Aroldis Chapman	0.2841	0.2091	25.5
8	Tommy Hunter	0.3050	0.3669	25.4

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	A.J. Burnett	0.3402	0.2939	41.0
2	Wade Miley	0.3345	0.2943	34.0
3	Ian Kennedy	0.2929	0.3302	31.9
4	Jonathon Niese	0.3247	0.2882	30.2
5	Philip Humber	0.2979	0.3634	29.4
6	Henderson Alvarez	0.3121	0.3501	29.1
7	Dan Haren	0.2917	0.3297	27.0
8	Daniel Bard	0.2749	0.3738	26.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Fiers	0.1839	0.3013	55.6
2	R.A. Dickey	0.3087	0.2778	41.8
3	Nick Blackburn	0.3196	0.4050	32.4
4	Justin Verlander	0.2843	0.2650	32.1
5	Tommy Hunter	0.2969	0.3669	32.0
6	Jered Weaver	0.2931	0.2666	30.1
7	Matt Cain	0.2943	0.2742	30.0
8	Clayton Kershaw	0.2744	0.2580	27.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Wade Miley	0.3187	0.2943	36.8
2	Ian Kennedy	0.2722	0.3302	33.1
3	Nick Blackburn	0.3155	0.4050	31.1
4	Jeremy Guthrie	0.2904	0.3509	31.0
5	Lucas Harrell	0.3165	0.3003	31.0
6	Chris Tillman	0.3457	0.2779	30.9
7	Dan Haren	0.2694	0.3297	29.2
8	Aroldis Chapman	0.2935	0.2091	29.1

Most Unique Misses for wOBA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	A.J. Burnett	0.3402	0.2979	0.2939	41.0	18.3	22.7
2	Mike Minor	0.3333	0.2871	0.3016	24.5	2.2	22.3
3	Christian Friedrich	0.3145	0.3515	0.3651	18.3	1.5	16.9
4	Chris Capuano	0.3280	0.2928	0.3052	20.2	4.1	16.0
5	Will Smith	0.3145	0.3340	0.3659	19.6	5.7	13.9
6	Rhiner Cruz	0.3145	0.3532	0.3753	14.9	1.2	13.7
7	Aaron Harang	0.3335	0.3011	0.3106	19.5	6.4	13.2
8	Philip Humber	0.2979	0.3107	0.3634	29.4	16.3	13.1
9	James Shields	0.3098	0.2805	0.2961	14.7	1.8	12.9
10	Chris Young	0.2993	0.3098	0.3318	15.1	2.2	12.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Fiers	0.1839	0.2380	0.3013	55.6	24.7	30.9
2	Justin Verlander	0.2843	0.2663	0.2650	32.1	18.0	14.1
3	Matt Cain	0.2943	0.2750	0.2742	30.0	16.0	14.0
4	Christian Friedrich	0.3145	0.3515	0.3651	13.7	1.5	12.2
5	Clayton Kershaw	0.2744	0.2581	0.2580	27.6	15.9	11.8
6	Jered Weaver	0.2931	0.2749	0.2666	30.1	19.1	11.0
7	R.A. Dickey	0.3087	0.2935	0.2778	41.8	30.8	11.0
8	Rhiner Cruz	0.3145	0.3532	0.3753	11.8	1.2	10.6
9	Jeremy Hellickson	0.3121	0.2949	0.3084	13.2	3.0	10.3
10	Mat Latos	0.2921	0.2774	0.2946	10.1	0.3	9.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Lucas Harrell	0.3165	0.3034	0.3003	31.0	17.0	13.9
2	Josh Johnson	0.2443	0.2638	0.2969	25.1	12.5	12.6
3	Jeremy Guthrie	0.2904	0.3076	0.3509	31.0	20.4	10.6
4	Mat Latos	0.2626	0.2774	0.2946	9.2	0.3	8.9
5	Clay Buchholz	0.2809	0.2956	0.3275	20.3	11.6	8.8
6	Ian Kennedy	0.2722	0.2855	0.3302	33.1	24.5	8.6
7	Craig Stammen	0.3104	0.2920	0.2806	18.9	10.7	8.2
8	Wade Miley	0.3187	0.3128	0.2943	36.8	29.0	7.8
9	Johan Santana	0.2720	0.2909	0.3228	14.7	7.2	7.5
10	Adam Ottavino	0.3221	0.3051	0.3149	9.6	2.6	7.0

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Ricky Romero	0.1496	0.1884 (46.8)	0.1919 (41.8)	0.1890 (43.5)	0.1877 (46.4)
Wade Davis	0.3063	0.1499 (39.4)	0.1540 (41.0)	0.1506 (40.5)	0.1493 (39.5)
Wandy Rodriguez	0.1589	0.1964 (48.3)	0.2068 (49.1)	0.1932 (41.5)	0.1995 (51.2)
Henderson Alvarez	0.0979	0.1343 (43.7)	0.1721 (66.5)	0.1379 (42.9)	0.1307 (40.8)
Clayton Richard	0.1176	0.1551 (50.2)	0.1651 (50.7)	0.1546 (45.6)	0.1555 (50.7)
R.A. Dickey	0.2481	0.1439 (80.2)	0.1569 (77.0)	0.1392 (88.8)	0.1486 (75.7)
Ubaldo Jiménez	0.1776	0.2193 (47.8)	0.2173 (38.5)	0.2185 (43.4)	0.2201 (48.5)
Yu Darvish	0.2708	0.1975 (45.4)	0.1978 (52.9)	0.1920 (53.7)	0.2031 (40.7)
Max Scherzer	0.2935	0.2086 (52.9)	0.2122 (57.6)	0.2041 (60.1)	0.2131 (49.3)
Derek Lowe	0.0859	0.1393 (45.4)	0.1646 (55.6)	0.1381 (41.8)	0.1404 (46.3)
Jon Lester	0.1895	0.2298 (50.8)	0.2345 (46.6)	0.2297 (46.7)	0.2299 (51.0)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Félix Doubront	0.1547	0.2355	44.8
2	Ricky Nolasco	0.1860	0.1502	44.5
3	Wei-Yin Chen	0.1210	0.1883	40.5
4	Steve Delabar	0.1707	0.3358	40.4
5	Zack Greinke	0.2584	0.2304	39.7
6	Chris Resop	0.2417	0.1394	39.6
7	Drew Smyly	0.1187	0.2260	37.3
8	Aroldis Chapman	0.2938	0.4420	36.0
9	Iván Nova	0.1403	0.2045	34.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Aroldis Chapman	0.2477	0.4420	51.4
2	Craig Kimbrel	0.2964	0.5022	45.6
3	Ricky Nolasco	0.1927	0.1502	42.1
4	Dallas Keuchel	0.1978	0.1008	39.7
5	David Hernandez	0.2051	0.3525	38.7
6	Jason Grilli	0.2057	0.3689	37.8
7	Steve Delabar	0.1901	0.3358	37.7
8	Aaron Cook	0.1314	0.0487	37.4
9	Stephen Strasburg	0.2365	0.3017	37.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Wei-Yin Chen	0.0924	0.1883	67.7
2	Aaron Laffey	0.1978	0.1119	42.5
3	Félix Doubront	0.1630	0.2355	42.1
4	Dallas Keuchel	0.1978	0.1008	41.5
5	Jose Quintana	0.1978	0.1426	38.8
6	Iván Nova	0.1404	0.2045	38.2
7	Chris Resop	0.2333	0.1394	35.3
8	Craig Kimbrel	0.3401	0.5022	34.4
9	Doug Fister	0.1394	0.2036	34.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Zack Greinke	0.2728	0.2304	52.3
2	Ricky Nolasco	0.1951	0.1502	52.1
3	Félix Doubront	0.1465	0.2355	50.5
4	Lance Lynn	0.1638	0.2419	44.9
5	Chris Resop	0.2500	0.1394	42.4
6	Tom Wilhelmsen	0.1250	0.2669	40.5
7	Steve Delabar	0.1707	0.3358	40.3
8	Aroldis Chapman	0.2823	0.4420	39.2
9	Drew Smyly	0.1187	0.2260	37.2

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jose Quintana	0.1978	0.1343	0.1426	36.0	5.3	30.7
2	Dallas Keuchel	0.1978	0.1156	0.1008	39.7	12.2	27.4
3	Scott Diamond	0.1606	0.1141	0.1261	30.5	4.1	26.4
4	Henderson Alvarez	0.1721	0.1343	0.0979	66.5	43.7	22.8
5	Stephen Strasburg	0.2365	0.2582	0.3017	37.2	16.9	20.3
6	Gio Gonzalez	0.2117	0.2267	0.2518	26.2	6.1	20.1
7	Kenley Jansen	0.2876	0.3539	0.3929	24.5	5.4	19.1
8	Brad Brach	0.1905	0.2415	0.2679	19.4	2.4	16.9
9	Craig Kimbrel	0.2964	0.3590	0.5022	45.6	29.0	16.7
10	Jonathan Papelbon	0.2528	0.3003	0.3239	17.9	1.7	16.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jose Quintana	0.1978	0.1343	0.1426	38.8	5.3	33.5
2	Aaron Laffey	0.1978	0.1152	0.1119	42.5	9.0	33.5
3	Dallas Keuchel	0.1978	0.1156	0.1008	41.5	12.2	29.3
4	Wei-Yin Chen	0.0924	0.1210	0.1883	67.7	40.5	27.2
5	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.1176	0.1494	0.1946	33.2	14.3	18.9
6	Lucas Harrell	0.1782	0.1515	0.1693	18.2	0.1	18.1
7	Cole De Vries	0.1978	0.1218	0.1547	21.1	5.7	15.4
8	Eric Stults	0.1978	0.1560	0.1332	32.1	16.7	15.4
9	Joe Kelly	0.1978	0.1315	0.1641	21.4	6.8	14.5
10	Samuel Deduno	0.1978	0.1517	0.1643	16.2	1.8	14.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Lucas Harrell	0.1248	0.1515	0.1693	22.1	0.1	22.0
2	Lance Lynn	0.1638	0.1811	0.2419	44.9	32.1	12.8
3	Zack Greinke	0.2728	0.2584	0.2304	52.3	39.7	12.6
4	Tom Wilhelmsen	0.1250	0.1568	0.2669	40.5	30.1	10.4
5	Rafael Soriano	0.2835	0.2483	0.2473	15.1	5.2	9.9
6	Craig Stammen	0.1424	0.1686	0.2351	27.7	18.1	9.7
7	Anthony Swarzak	0.1097	0.1331	0.1501	9.3	0.3	9.1
8	Mat Latos	0.2362	0.2259	0.2156	33.0	24.0	9.0
9	Adam Ottavino	0.1501	0.1744	0.2389	24.1	15.9	8.2
10	Esmil Rogers	0.1498	0.1727	0.2385	24.7	16.7	7.9

Walk Rate

Everybody Missed for Walk Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Aaron Harang	0.1081	0.0711 (31.8)	0.0774 (25.5)	0.0739 (29.0)	0.0684 (33.4)
Ricky Romero	0.1267	0.0885 (34.5)	0.0898 (31.9)	0.0903 (32.4)	0.0867 (35.3)
Tim Lincecum	0.1091	0.0846 (23.1)	0.0879 (18.8)	0.0855 (21.6)	0.0837 (23.2)
Scott Diamond	0.0434	0.0857 (27.7)	0.0873 (30.2)	0.0878 (29.8)	0.0837 (26.9)
Jeff Samardzija	0.0775	0.1239 (31.1)	0.1129 (24.4)	0.1194 (28.4)	0.1285 (34.9)
Clayton Richard	0.0462	0.0907 (37.4)	0.0899 (38.3)	0.0913 (38.7)	0.0900 (37.5)
Yu Darvish	0.1091	0.0651 (38.7)	0.0798 (25.2)	0.0749 (30.0)	0.0553 (46.1)
Francisco Liriano	0.1255	0.1000 (20.1)	0.0981 (20.2)	0.1002 (19.4)	0.0997 (19.8)
Wade Miley	0.0458	0.0965 (38.1)	0.0898 (34.1)	0.0974 (39.5)	0.0956 (38.0)
Ubaldo Jiménez	0.1180	0.0944 (21.8)	0.0947 (20.1)	0.0950 (20.6)	0.0937 (21.7)

Individual Misses for Walk Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Sale	0.1103	0.0661	31.5
2	Joe Kelly	0.1352	0.0788	24.2
3	Steve Delabar	0.1742	0.0949	20.8
4	Justin Masterson	0.0780	0.0971	20.5
5	Gavin Floyd	0.0648	0.0870	18.6
6	Daniel Bard	0.0921	0.1552	18.4
7	Carlos Zambrano	0.1002	0.1269	17.9
8	Fernando Rodney	0.1192	0.0532	17.6
9	Phil Hughes	0.0813	0.0564	17.4
10	C.J. Wilson	0.0885	0.1052	17.4

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Samuel Deduno	0.0862	0.1527	23.7
2	Bruce Chen	0.0835	0.0568	20.6
3	Matt Moore	0.0820	0.1067	20.1
4	Kyle Lohse	0.0685	0.0440	19.8
5	Tommy Milone	0.0721	0.0455	19.7
6	Aníbal Sánchez	0.0838	0.0585	19.3
7	Daniel Bard	0.0874	0.1552	19.2
8	Bartolo Colon	0.0679	0.0362	19.2
9	A.J. Burnett	0.0966	0.0729	18.8
10	Phil Hughes	0.0809	0.0564	18.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Sale	0.1084	0.0661	30.6
2	Samuel Deduno	0.0798	0.1527	26.2
3	Carlos Zambrano	0.0961	0.1269	19.8
4	Edinson Volquez	0.1108	0.1309	18.3
5	Phil Hughes	0.0814	0.0564	18.2
6	Jeremy Hefner	0.0906	0.0441	17.9
7	Johnny Cueto	0.0776	0.0552	17.6
8	Aníbal Sánchez	0.0825	0.0585	17.5
9	Jake Arrieta	0.1076	0.0706	17.1
10	Craig Stammen	0.0543	0.0973	16.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Sale	0.1123	0.0661	33.6
2	Joe Kelly	0.1352	0.0788	24.5
3	Justin Masterson	0.0728	0.0971	24.5
4	Steve Delabar	0.1742	0.0949	21.0
5	Daniel Bard	0.0836	0.1552	20.6
6	Henderson Alvarez	0.0455	0.0669	19.4
7	Gavin Floyd	0.0629	0.0870	19.4
8	Aroldis Chapman	0.1556	0.0833	19.2
9	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.0486	0.0829	19.1
10	Fernando Rodney	0.1228	0.0532	18.9

Most Unique Misses for Walk Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Matt Moore	0.0820	0.1124	0.1067	20.1	1.7	18.4
2	Tommy Milone	0.0721	0.0516	0.0455	19.7	2.1	17.6
3	Samuel Deduno	0.0862	0.1327	0.1527	23.7	8.1	15.5
4	Héctor Santiago	0.0833	0.1215	0.1307	15.0	3.9	11.1
5	Rex Brothers	0.0909	0.1271	0.1254	10.7	0.5	10.2
6	Jerome Williams	0.0836	0.0684	0.0612	11.9	2.2	9.7
7	Jake Peavy	0.0705	0.0621	0.0556	11.7	2.8	8.9
8	Drew Pomeranz	0.0822	0.1046	0.1060	11.0	2.1	8.9
9	Blake Beavan	0.0611	0.0493	0.0376	13.9	5.2	8.6
10	Kevin Correia	0.0766	0.0682	0.0632	8.5	1.1	7.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Samuel Deduno	0.0798	0.1327	0.1527	26.2	8.1	18.1
2	Héctor Santiago	0.0798	0.1215	0.1307	16.4	3.9	12.5
3	Madison Bumgarner	0.0739	0.0653	0.0577	11.5	3.5	8.0
4	Clayton Kershaw	0.0840	0.0766	0.0699	10.3	2.9	7.4
5	Alex Hinshaw	0.0798	0.1899	0.1556	10.6	4.2	6.4
6	R.A. Dickey	0.0704	0.0645	0.0583	8.8	2.6	6.2
7	Matt Harvey	0.0798	0.1052	0.1061	7.1	1.1	6.0
8	Erasmo Ramírez	0.0798	0.0521	0.0504	6.4	0.4	5.9
9	Steve Johnson	0.0798	0.1164	0.1192	6.3	0.9	5.4
10	Blake Beavan	0.0563	0.0493	0.0376	10.3	5.2	5.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Wei-Yin Chen	0.0546	0.0663	0.0697	14.6	5.6	8.9
2	Lucas Harrell	0.1086	0.1003	0.0943	9.6	2.1	7.5
3	Henderson Alvarez	0.0455	0.0556	0.0669	19.4	11.9	7.5
4	Yu Darvish	0.0553	0.0651	0.1091	46.1	38.7	7.3
5	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.0486	0.0602	0.0829	19.1	13.6	5.6
6	Trevor Cahill	0.0782	0.0844	0.0882	10.7	6.1	4.6
7	Mat Latos	0.0700	0.0756	0.0746	6.2	2.1	4.1
8	Chris Young	0.1050	0.0975	0.0730	14.4	10.3	4.1
9	Justin Masterson	0.0728	0.0780	0.0971	24.5	20.5	4.0
10	Lance Lynn	0.0951	0.0906	0.0860	4.8	0.8	3.9

Hit By Pitch Rate

Everybody Missed for Hit By Pitch Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Will Ohman	0.0536	0.0105 (4.9)	0.0084 (5.1)	0.0097 (5.0)	0.0114 (4.9)
Trevor Cahill	0.0131	0.0080 (5.1)	0.0075 (4.8)	0.0079 (4.7)	0.0080 (5.2)
Clay Buchholz	0.0150	0.0066 (7.5)	0.0060 (7.3)	0.0072 (6.6)	0.0059 (8.2)
Daniel Bard	0.0289	0.0059 (6.6)	0.0070 (6.1)	0.0085 (5.8)	0.0033 (7.4)
Luke Hochevar	0.0163	0.0088 (6.7)	0.0083 (6.4)	0.0091 (6.1)	0.0086 (7.0)
Henderson Alvarez	0.0037	0.0131 (6.7)	0.0100 (5.0)	0.0114 (5.9)	0.0147 (7.9)
Lucas Harrell	0.0012	0.0107 (7.0)	0.0097 (6.9)	0.0101 (7.0)	0.0113 (7.4)
Gavin Floyd	0.0193	0.0089 (8.3)	0.0095 (7.1)	0.0090 (7.8)	0.0088 (8.5)
Jeff Francis	0.0159	0.0068 (5.1)	0.0058 (5.1)	0.0072 (4.6)	0.0065 (5.3)
James Shields	0.0117	0.0050 (7.3)	0.0048 (6.6)	0.0055 (6.2)	0.0044 (7.9)
Ricky Nolasco	0.0096	0.0044 (5.2)	0.0039 (4.8)	0.0049 (4.2)	0.0039 (5.7)
Jon Lester	0.0046	0.0111 (4.8)	0.0108 (5.4)	0.0098 (4.2)	0.0124 (5.8)

Individual Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Félix Hernández	0.0075	0.0128	5.9
2	Wade Miley	0.0108	0.0025	5.9
3	Ian Kennedy	0.0108	0.0156	5.2
4	Carlos Zambrano	0.0095	0.0169	5.0
5	Tommy Milone	0.0120	0.0051	4.7
6	Jose Quintana	0.0144	0.0053	4.6
7	Jarrod Parker	0.0111	0.0040	4.6
8	Anthony Swarzak	0.0115	0.0000	4.4

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Kris Medlen	0.0099	0.0000	5.1
2	Jeff Samardzija	0.0125	0.0055	5.0
3	Ian Kennedy	0.0101	0.0156	5.0
4	Shawn Camp	0.0147	0.0000	4.8
5	Blake Beavan	0.0084	0.0157	4.7
6	Wesley Wright	0.0063	0.0269	4.6
7	Alex Cobb	0.0080	0.0158	4.5
8	Brandon McCarthy	0.0033	0.0128	4.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ian Kennedy	0.0101	0.0156	5.3
2	Wade Miley	0.0094	0.0025	5.2
3	Félix Hernández	0.0079	0.0128	4.9
4	Carlos Zambrano	0.0092	0.0169	4.8
5	Cliff Lee	0.0060	0.0000	4.7
6	Héctor Santiago	0.0081	0.0229	4.6
7	Justin Germano	0.0081	0.0219	4.5
8	Tommy Milone	0.0109	0.0051	4.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Wade Miley	0.0121	0.0025	6.9
2	Félix Hernández	0.0071	0.0128	6.4
3	Jarrod Parker	0.0125	0.0040	5.5
4	Tommy Milone	0.0130	0.0051	5.4
5	Jeff Samardzija	0.0140	0.0055	5.3
6	Carlos Zambrano	0.0098	0.0169	4.9
7	Jake Westbrook	0.0053	0.0107	4.9
8	Brandon McCarthy	0.0036	0.0128	4.8

Most Unique Misses for Hit By Pitch Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Steve Delabar	0.0083	0.0174	0.0182	2.8	0.5	2.3
2	Matt Moore	0.0055	0.0113	0.0092	2.9	0.8	2.1
3	Matt Harrison	0.0047	0.0034	0.0011	3.1	1.1	2.0
4	Zack Greinke	0.0072	0.0064	0.0023	4.2	2.7	1.5
5	Kris Medlen	0.0099	0.0082	0.0000	5.1	3.7	1.4
6	Héctor Santiago	0.0083	0.0138	0.0229	4.5	3.1	1.4
7	Johan Santana	0.0061	0.0043	0.0000	3.0	1.6	1.4
8	A.J. Burnett	0.0134	0.0128	0.0106	2.4	1.0	1.3
9	Wesley Wright	0.0063	0.0132	0.0269	4.6	3.3	1.3
10	Dan Haren	0.0061	0.0053	0.0040	1.5	0.2	1.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Justin Germano	0.0081	0.0190	0.0219	4.5	1.2	3.3
2	Steve Delabar	0.0081	0.0174	0.0182	2.9	0.5	2.4
3	Matt Harrison	0.0053	0.0034	0.0011	3.3	1.1	2.2
4	Héctor Santiago	0.0081	0.0138	0.0229	4.6	3.1	1.6
5	Corey Kluber	0.0081	0.0137	0.0142	1.8	0.4	1.4
6	Jason Vargas	0.0057	0.0048	0.0034	1.7	0.4	1.3
7	Johan Santana	0.0059	0.0043	0.0000	2.8	1.6	1.1
8	Josh Johnson	0.0073	0.0065	0.0050	1.5	0.4	1.1
9	Samuel Deduno	0.0081	0.0119	0.0144	2.3	1.2	1.1
10	Wei-Yin Chen	0.0099	0.0091	0.0061	2.8	1.7	1.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jeremy Guthrie	0.0182	0.0146	0.0114	4.4	1.8	2.7
2	Alfredo Aceves	0.0256	0.0208	0.0166	2.8	1.1	1.7
3	Mat Latos	0.0012	0.0028	0.0047	3.9	2.5	1.5
4	Chris Sale	0.0045	0.0061	0.0078	3.4	2.1	1.3
5	Stephen Strasburg	0.0032	0.0049	0.0061	2.7	1.4	1.2
6	Henderson Alvarez	0.0147	0.0131	0.0037	7.9	6.7	1.2
7	Alex Burnett	0.0214	0.0174	0.0097	3.2	2.1	1.2
8	Phil Hughes	0.0055	0.0068	0.0074	2.4	1.2	1.2
9	Carlos Marmol	0.0274	0.0224	0.0081	4.5	3.3	1.2
10	Jeff Samardzija	0.0140	0.0122	0.0055	5.3	4.1	1.2

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Aaron Harang	0.0247	0.0387 (13.5)	0.0390 (13.8)	0.0415 (15.2)	0.0359 (11.8)
Gio Gonzalez	0.0169	0.0311 (14.4)	0.0301 (13.6)	0.0305 (13.2)	0.0316 (15.4)
Derek Holland	0.0604	0.0372 (14.5)	0.0376 (14.2)	0.0382 (14.4)	0.0363 (14.7)
Jason Marquis	0.0542	0.0280 (12.9)	0.0275 (13.2)	0.0292 (12.7)	0.0268 (13.2)
Iván Nova	0.0529	0.0306 (14.3)	0.0273 (16.7)	0.0285 (16.4)	0.0326 (12.3)
Tommy Hunter	0.0688	0.0397 (14.8)	0.0413 (13.9)	0.0384 (16.0)	0.0410 (13.7)
Philip Humber	0.0699	0.0395 (12.5)	0.0285 (17.6)	0.0402 (12.6)	0.0389 (12.5)
Ervin Santana	0.0695	0.0411 (19.2)	0.0381 (21.5)	0.0426 (18.7)	0.0397 (19.8)
Kevin Millwood	0.0249	0.0392 (12.1)	0.0417 (13.9)	0.0389 (11.4)	0.0394 (12.7)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jose Quintana	0.0548	0.0317	15.0
2	Félix Doubront	0.0305	0.0515	12.6
3	Steve Delabar	0.0328	0.0795	11.9
4	Johnny Cueto	0.0328	0.0228	11.8
5	Carlos Villanueva	0.0406	0.0657	11.4
6	Eric Stults	0.0447	0.0213	11.0
7	Justin Verlander	0.0372	0.0291	10.8
8	Ricky Nolasco	0.0370	0.0276	10.5
9	Hector Noesí	0.0348	0.0610	10.4
10	Kelvin Herrera	0.0431	0.0164	10.3

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Edinson Volquez	0.0452	0.0272	17.1
2	A.J. Burnett	0.0464	0.0300	16.8
3	Wade Miley	0.0367	0.0224	14.2
4	Carlos Villanueva	0.0360	0.0657	13.8
5	Jarrod Parker	0.0347	0.0202	13.4
6	Jason Vargas	0.0328	0.0509	13.1
7	Ubaldo Jiménez	0.0256	0.0447	12.7
8	Bronson Arroyo	0.0509	0.0390	12.7
9	Phil Hughes	0.0402	0.0585	12.2
10	Travis Wood	0.0316	0.0534	12.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Justin Verlander	0.0441	0.0291	16.7
2	Johnny Cueto	0.0391	0.0228	16.6
3	Clayton Kershaw	0.0394	0.0265	13.9
4	Félix Doubront	0.0303	0.0515	13.3
5	Jered Weaver	0.0504	0.0365	12.1
6	Nick Blackburn	0.0304	0.0594	12.1
7	Carlos Villanueva	0.0400	0.0657	12.1
8	David Price	0.0388	0.0282	10.9
9	Luke Hochevar	0.0303	0.0464	10.9
10	Steve Delabar	0.0375	0.0795	10.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jose Quintana	0.0548	0.0317	15.4
2	Jason Vargas	0.0318	0.0509	13.4
3	Ubaldo Jiménez	0.0243	0.0447	13.3
4	Bronson Arroyo	0.0507	0.0390	13.0
5	Travis Wood	0.0298	0.0534	12.8
6	Félix Doubront	0.0306	0.0515	12.0
7	Steve Delabar	0.0328	0.0795	11.7
8	Liam Hendriks	0.0226	0.0565	11.4
9	Tommy Hanson	0.0327	0.0515	11.4
10	Eric Stults	0.0447	0.0213	11.3

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Edinson Volquez	0.0452	0.0282	0.0272	17.1	3.4	13.6
2	A.J. Burnett	0.0464	0.0344	0.0300	16.8	6.5	10.3
3	Jarrod Parker	0.0347	0.0246	0.0202	13.4	5.8	7.6
4	Wade Miley	0.0367	0.0274	0.0224	14.2	6.7	7.6
5	Alex White	0.0536	0.0396	0.0383	8.5	2.1	6.4
6	Wei-Yin Chen	0.0375	0.0452	0.0482	6.0	0.2	5.8
7	Luis Mendoza	0.0338	0.0258	0.0280	6.4	0.7	5.7
8	Philip Humber	0.0285	0.0395	0.0699	17.6	12.5	5.1
9	Jason Vargas	0.0328	0.0385	0.0509	13.1	8.1	5.0
10	Mat Latos	0.0309	0.0396	0.0413	6.1	1.3	4.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Fiers	0.0171	0.0293	0.0328	7.1	0.1	7.0
2	Matt Cain	0.0406	0.0326	0.0337	8.2	1.9	6.3
3	Jered Weaver	0.0504	0.0416	0.0365	12.1	6.2	5.9
4	Justin Verlander	0.0441	0.0372	0.0291	16.7	10.8	5.9
5	Clayton Kershaw	0.0394	0.0326	0.0265	13.9	8.4	5.4
6	Wei-Yin Chen	0.0391	0.0452	0.0482	5.4	0.2	5.2
7	Johnny Cueto	0.0391	0.0328	0.0228	16.6	11.8	4.9
8	Josh Johnson	0.0326	0.0257	0.0248	8.2	3.3	4.8
9	Henderson Alvarez	0.0289	0.0336	0.0432	9.6	5.1	4.4
10	Joe Kelly	0.0375	0.0283	0.0292	5.0	1.1	3.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Fiers	0.0418	0.0293	0.0328	7.0	0.1	6.9
2	Wei-Yin Chen	0.0515	0.0452	0.0482	5.9	0.2	5.7
3	Jason Vargas	0.0318	0.0385	0.0509	13.4	8.1	5.3
4	Tommy Milone	0.0243	0.0304	0.0391	8.6	4.3	4.4
5	Jeremy Hellickson	0.0327	0.0391	0.0451	6.3	2.1	4.2
6	Alex White	0.0475	0.0396	0.0383	6.0	2.1	3.9
7	Cliff Lee	0.0276	0.0327	0.0425	9.3	5.5	3.8
8	Ian Kennedy	0.0345	0.0393	0.0435	4.6	0.8	3.8
9	Ubaldo Jiménez	0.0243	0.0296	0.0447	13.3	9.6	3.8
10	Travis Wood	0.0298	0.0361	0.0534	12.8	9.1	3.7

BABIP

Everybody Missed for BABIP

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Travis Wood	0.2438	0.2915 (31.8)	0.2962 (34.9)	0.2951 (31.6)	0.2879 (32.3)
Jonathon Niese	0.2724	0.3049 (26.6)	0.3183 (37.3)	0.3067 (24.9)	0.3032 (28.7)
Rick Porcello	0.3443	0.2996 (34.0)	0.3043 (30.2)	0.3050 (32.9)	0.2942 (34.8)
Iván Nova	0.3313	0.2909 (29.3)	0.2873 (31.9)	0.2967 (27.9)	0.2850 (30.4)
Brandon Beachy	0.2000	0.2862 (27.9)	0.3041 (33.7)	0.2831 (25.6)	0.2892 (30.3)
Randy Wolf	0.3372	0.2809 (38.5)	0.2806 (38.6)	0.2919 (33.6)	0.2698 (43.2)
Mike Minor	0.2520	0.2912 (29.4)	0.3281 (56.4)	0.2867 (23.3)	0.2956 (35.9)
Vance Worley	0.3397	0.2900 (28.6)	0.2845 (31.7)	0.2946 (28.2)	0.2855 (28.7)
Ervin Santana	0.2414	0.2824 (32.3)	0.2857 (35.0)	0.2855 (31.7)	0.2793 (33.3)
Chris Tillman	0.2213	0.2960 (26.3)	0.3042 (29.3)	0.2926 (23.8)	0.2993 (29.0)

Individual Misses for BABIP

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Fiers	0.2095	0.3192	58.5
2	Max Scherzer	0.2938	0.3333	30.1
3	Ross Detwiler	0.3014	0.2633	27.0
4	Tommy Hanson	0.2791	0.3139	25.5
5	Jered Weaver	0.2738	0.2405	25.5
6	Kyle Lohse	0.2903	0.2621	25.4
7	Jeff Francis	0.2910	0.3412	24.6
8	Roy Oswalt	0.2870	0.3778	23.6
9	Grant Balfour	0.2806	0.2011	23.3
10	Brandon Morrow	0.2966	0.2522	23.0

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Madison Bumgarner	0.3131	0.2763	32.4
2	Derek Holland	0.3025	0.2610	31.3
3	Ian Kennedy	0.2699	0.3057	30.9
4	Ricky Romero	0.2744	0.3111	29.3
5	Brandon Morrow	0.3066	0.2522	28.1
6	Kyle Lohse	0.2932	0.2621	28.1
7	Guillermo Moscoso	0.2556	0.3782	28.0
8	Jason Vargas	0.2834	0.2542	27.2
9	Edwin Jackson	0.3108	0.2783	26.8
10	Aaron Harang	0.3098	0.2772	26.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Fiers	0.1457	0.3192	95.0
2	Max Scherzer	0.2954	0.3333	31.9
3	Kyle Lohse	0.2974	0.2621	28.2
4	R.A. Dickey	0.3072	0.2754	27.0
5	Mark Buehrle	0.3054	0.2701	27.0
6	Jered Weaver	0.2787	0.2405	26.3
7	Jeff Francis	0.2930	0.3412	25.5
8	Tommy Hanson	0.2838	0.3139	24.9
9	Gio Gonzalez	0.2986	0.2667	24.0
10	Grant Balfour	0.2866	0.2011	24.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Ricky Romero	0.2664	0.3111	32.4
2	Ross Detwiler	0.3035	0.2633	31.5
3	Scott Diamond	0.3302	0.2920	31.3
4	Jason Vargas	0.2803	0.2542	28.2
5	Max Scherzer	0.2922	0.3333	27.9
6	Ian Kennedy	0.2711	0.3057	26.1
7	Tommy Hanson	0.2743	0.3139	25.8
8	Brandon Morrow	0.2969	0.2522	25.4
9	Jered Weaver	0.2689	0.2405	25.1
10	Jake Peavy	0.2948	0.2724	24.8

Most Unique Misses for BABIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Minor	0.3281	0.2912	0.2520	56.4	29.4	27.0
2	Aaron Harang	0.3098	0.2903	0.2772	26.8	11.3	15.5
3	Madison Bumgarner	0.3131	0.2952	0.2763	32.4	17.1	15.3
4	Edwin Jackson	0.3108	0.2926	0.2783	26.8	12.3	14.5
5	Lucas Harrell	0.3151	0.2999	0.2891	22.7	9.9	12.7
6	Clayton Richard	0.2992	0.2861	0.2721	26.0	13.9	12.1
7	Christian Friedrich	0.2928	0.3246	0.3424	18.2	6.3	11.9
8	Chris Capuano	0.3023	0.2884	0.2840	16.1	4.6	11.5
9	Wei-Yin Chen	0.2928	0.2795	0.2740	16.5	5.5	11.0
10	Ian Kennedy	0.2699	0.2819	0.3057	30.9	20.3	10.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Fiers	0.1457	0.2095	0.3192	95.0	58.5	36.5
2	Christian Friedrich	0.2928	0.3246	0.3424	19.7	6.3	13.4
3	Clay Buchholz	0.3088	0.2887	0.2832	18.4	5.4	13.0
4	Trevor Cahill	0.3070	0.2897	0.2887	13.1	1.9	11.2
5	R.A. Dickey	0.3072	0.2920	0.2754	27.0	16.5	10.5
6	Corey Kluber	0.2928	0.3218	0.3418	14.5	5.3	9.3
7	Tommy Milone	0.2908	0.2985	0.3102	17.4	8.3	9.1
8	Will Smith	0.2928	0.3116	0.3402	19.8	10.8	9.0
9	Wei-Yin Chen	0.2923	0.2795	0.2740	12.8	5.5	7.3
10	Mark Buehrle	0.3054	0.2927	0.2701	27.0	19.7	7.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Ricky Romero	0.2664	0.2871	0.3111	32.4	18.8	13.5
2	Jeremy Guthrie	0.2653	0.2848	0.2943	18.4	6.5	11.9
3	Scott Diamond	0.3302	0.3205	0.2920	31.3	21.3	10.1
4	Jon Lester	0.2784	0.2934	0.3116	24.2	14.8	9.3
5	Blake Beavan	0.2978	0.2902	0.2821	13.6	5.9	7.7
6	Josh Beckett	0.2753	0.2897	0.2942	9.7	2.4	7.3
7	Zach McAllister	0.3145	0.3058	0.3040	8.8	1.7	7.1
8	Josh Johnson	0.2774	0.2907	0.3018	15.0	7.9	7.1
9	Trevor Cahill	0.2725	0.2897	0.2887	8.8	1.9	6.9
10	Mike Minor	0.2956	0.2912	0.2520	35.9	29.4	6.4

Single Rate

Everybody Missed for Single Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Travis Wood	0.1490	0.2915 (47.5)	0.2174 (45.0)	0.2951 (51.7)	0.2879 (48.1)
Edwin Jackson	0.1855	0.2926 (29.9)	0.2340 (39.1)	0.2976 (36.0)	0.2877 (29.5)
Brandon Morrow	0.1701	0.2966 (28.9)	0.2197 (25.5)	0.2963 (30.1)	0.2969 (31.3)
James McDonald	0.1838	0.2939 (29.1)	0.2270 (31.5)	0.2936 (30.9)	0.2942 (32.5)
Ervin Santana	0.1724	0.2824 (31.1)	0.2134 (32.1)	0.2855 (35.6)	0.2793 (32.1)

Individual Misses for Single Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Fiers	0.2095	0.2345	50.8
2	Félix Hernández	0.2841	0.2539	36.7
3	A.J. Griffin	0.2203	0.2397	29.8
4	David Price	0.2782	0.2432	28.6
5	Ross Detwiler	0.3014	0.1906	28.5
6	Chris Tillman	0.2960	0.1475	27.5
7	Wade Miley	0.3058	0.2033	26.8
8	Jonny Venters	0.2860	0.3182	26.6
9	Mike Minor	0.2912	0.1855	26.5
10	Scott Diamond	0.3205	0.2150	25.9

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Minor	0.2344	0.1855	36.3
2	Gio Gonzalez	0.2330	0.1943	32.7
3	Madison Bumgarner	0.2391	0.2021	32.3
4	David Price	0.2040	0.2432	31.9
5	Aaron Harang	0.2329	0.1938	31.5
6	Derek Holland	0.2284	0.1928	26.7
7	Chris Tillman	0.2233	0.1475	26.6
8	Ross Detwiler	0.2279	0.1906	26.3
9	Guillermo Moscoso	0.1882	0.3013	25.9
10	Tommy Milone	0.2183	0.2508	24.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Fiers	0.1457	0.2345	83.7
2	Will Smith	0.2203	0.2646	43.9
3	Jose Quintana	0.2203	0.2266	41.4
4	Justin Germano	0.2203	0.2747	38.7
5	Joe Kelly	0.2203	0.2372	38.2
6	Christian Friedrich	0.2203	0.2529	37.4
7	Patrick Corbin	0.2203	0.2308	35.0
8	Kelvin Herrera	0.2203	0.2542	34.6
9	Gio Gonzalez	0.2986	0.1943	31.0
10	Kyle Lohse	0.2974	0.1955	30.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Félix Hernández	0.2790	0.2539	37.4
2	Scott Diamond	0.3302	0.2150	35.9
3	Ross Detwiler	0.3035	0.1906	33.0
4	Mike Minor	0.2956	0.1855	33.0
5	David Price	0.2715	0.2432	30.6
6	Chris Tillman	0.2993	0.1475	30.2
7	Jonny Venters	0.2708	0.3182	29.4
8	Wade Miley	0.3043	0.2033	29.2
9	A.J. Griffin	0.2203	0.2397	28.3
10	Randy Wolf	0.2698	0.2437	27.0

Most Unique Misses for Single Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jeremy Hellickson	0.1717	0.2701	0.2042	23.3	2.4	20.9
2	Clayton Richard	0.2327	0.2861	0.2072	24.2	8.8	15.3
3	Luke Hochevar	0.2046	0.2951	0.2252	15.7	0.5	15.2
4	Jeremy Guthrie	0.1941	0.2848	0.2140	15.0	1.2	13.8
5	Lance Lynn	0.2105	0.2977	0.2300	13.7	1.1	12.6
6	Madison Bumgarner	0.2391	0.2952	0.2021	32.3	20.3	12.0
7	Lucas Harrell	0.2466	0.2999	0.2319	12.9	1.1	11.8
8	Ubaldo Jiménez	0.2081	0.2929	0.2285	15.6	3.8	11.8
9	Christian Friedrich	0.2203	0.3246	0.2529	11.9	0.9	11.0
10	Gio Gonzalez	0.2330	0.2899	0.1943	32.7	21.7	11.0

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jose Quintana	0.2203	0.2901	0.2266	41.4	3.3	38.1
2	Joe Kelly	0.2203	0.3076	0.2372	38.2	0.5	37.6
3	Christian Friedrich	0.2203	0.3246	0.2529	37.4	0.9	36.5
4	Will Smith	0.2203	0.3116	0.2646	43.9	8.8	35.1
5	Patrick Corbin	0.2203	0.3018	0.2308	35.0	0.8	34.2
6	Mike Fiers	0.1457	0.2095	0.2345	83.7	50.8	33.0
7	P.J. Walters	0.2203	0.3167	0.2656	30.3	4.9	25.4
8	Dallas Keuchel	0.2203	0.3012	0.2246	26.7	2.8	23.9
9	Héctor Santiago	0.2203	0.2999	0.2294	23.2	0.4	22.8
10	Justin Germano	0.2203	0.2905	0.2747	38.7	17.1	21.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Ricky Romero	0.2664	0.2871	0.2267	20.9	7.3	13.5
2	Scott Diamond	0.3302	0.3205	0.2150	35.9	25.9	10.1
3	Jeremy Guthrie	0.2653	0.2848	0.2140	10.7	1.2	9.5
4	Jon Lester	0.2784	0.2934	0.2235	8.7	0.6	8.1
5	Blake Beavan	0.2978	0.2902	0.1984	22.0	14.3	7.7
6	Josh Beckett	0.2753	0.2897	0.2231	9.2	1.9	7.3
7	Zach McAllister	0.3145	0.3058	0.2160	18.3	11.2	7.1
8	Josh Johnson	0.2774	0.2907	0.2418	23.4	16.3	7.1
9	Mike Minor	0.2956	0.2912	0.1855	33.0	26.5	6.4
10	Clay Buchholz	0.2684	0.2887	0.2150	9.2	3.5	5.7

Double Rate

Everybody Missed for Double Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Tommy Hanson	0.0905	0.0000 (20.7)	0.0655 (18.8)	0.0000 (25.2)	0.0000 (20.7)
Rick Porcello	0.0869	0.0000 (18.4)	0.0534 (26.0)	0.0000 (23.1)	0.0000 (18.4)
Iván Nova	0.1038	0.0000 (30.2)	0.0670 (27.4)	0.0000 (34.7)	0.0000 (30.2)

Individual Misses for Double Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	A.J. Griffin	0.0652	0.0248	34.9
2	Travis Blackley	0.0652	0.0610	30.0
3	Miguel González	0.0652	0.0625	28.7
4	J.A. Happ	0.0000	0.0961	20.5
5	David Price	0.0000	0.0417	18.1
6	Ricky Romero	0.0000	0.0844	17.4
7	Kip Wells	0.0652	0.0325	16.2
8	Ian Kennedy	0.0000	0.0813	16.1
9	Travis Wood	0.0000	0.0880	16.0
10	Félix Hernández	0.0000	0.0473	15.1

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	A.J. Burnett	0.0771	0.0515	22.0
2	Chris Capuano	0.0841	0.0575	22.0
3	David Price	0.0662	0.0417	20.7
4	Mike Minor	0.0875	0.0605	19.9
5	Ricky Nolasco	0.0730	0.0505	19.0
6	Zack Greinke	0.0745	0.0539	18.1
7	Jonathon Niese	0.0739	0.0520	17.5
8	Ernesto Frieri	0.0798	0.0160	17.2
9	Kyle Lohse	0.0816	0.0621	17.0
10	Jon Lester	0.0609	0.0799	16.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	A.J. Griffin	0.0652	0.0248	32.9
2	Jose Quintana	0.0652	0.0654	32.5
3	David Phelps	0.0652	0.0462	31.7
4	Eric Stults	0.0652	0.0466	31.4
5	Aaron Laffey	0.0652	0.0559	28.6
6	Joe Kelly	0.0652	0.0601	28.6
7	Héctor Santiago	0.0652	0.0294	28.5
8	Samuel Deduno	0.0652	0.0405	28.5
9	Travis Blackley	0.0652	0.0610	27.4
10	Kelvin Herrera	0.0652	0.0458	26.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	A.J. Griffin	0.0652	0.0248	34.9
2	Travis Blackley	0.0652	0.0610	30.0
3	Miguel González	0.0652	0.0625	28.7
4	J.A. Happ	0.0000	0.0961	20.5
5	David Price	0.0000	0.0417	18.1
6	Ricky Romero	0.0000	0.0844	17.4
7	Kip Wells	0.0652	0.0325	16.2
8	Ian Kennedy	0.0000	0.0813	16.1
9	Travis Wood	0.0000	0.0880	16.0
10	Félix Hernández	0.0000	0.0473	15.1

Most Unique Misses for Double Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Minor	0.0875	0.0605	19.9	2.1	17.8
2	Chris Capuano	0.0841	0.0575	22.0	4.8	17.2
3	Kyle Lohse	0.0816	0.0621	17.0	1.1	15.9
4	A.J. Burnett	0.0771	0.0515	22.0	10.1	11.9
5	Gio Gonzalez	0.0505	0.0667	13.1	2.7	10.4
6	Zack Greinke	0.0745	0.0539	18.1	8.2	9.9
7	Ryan Vogelsong	0.0510	0.0700	14.7	5.2	9.5
8	Jonathon Niese	0.0739	0.0520	17.5	9.0	8.5
9	Ricky Nolasco	0.0730	0.0505	19.0	10.7	8.2
10	Rick Porcello	0.0534	0.0869	26.0	18.4	7.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jose Quintana	0.0652	0.0654	32.5	1.2	31.3
2	Joe Kelly	0.0652	0.0601	28.6	1.5	27.1
3	Aaron Laffey	0.0652	0.0559	28.6	3.2	25.4
4	David Phelps	0.0652	0.0462	31.7	7.1	24.5
5	Eric Stults	0.0652	0.0466	31.4	6.9	24.5
6	Dallas Keuchel	0.0652	0.0526	26.4	4.0	22.3
7	Cole De Vries	0.0652	0.0609	23.1	0.9	22.2
8	Will Smith	0.0652	0.0653	22.7	0.8	21.9
9	Samuel Deduno	0.0652	0.0405	28.5	7.9	20.6
10	Kelvin Herrera	0.0652	0.0458	26.4	6.0	20.4

Triple Rate

Everybody Missed for Triple Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jonathan Sánchez	0.0329	0.0000 (8.4)	0.0059 (8.8)	0.0000 (8.6)	0.0000 (8.4)
Alex White	0.0184	0.0000 (5.2)	0.0075 (4.9)	0.0000 (5.5)	0.0000 (5.2)
Collin McHugh	0.0746	0.0000 (6.7)	0.0073 (6.6)	0.0073 (6.0)	0.0000 (6.7)
David Price	0.0000	0.0000 (6.0)	0.0074 (6.3)	0.0000 (5.4)	0.0000 (6.0)
Ian Kennedy	0.0146	0.0000 (6.8)	0.0055 (8.0)	0.0000 (7.4)	0.0000 (6.8)
Chad Billingsley	0.0202	0.0000 (8.3)	0.0078 (7.8)	0.0000 (8.7)	0.0000 (8.3)
Iván Nova	0.0140	0.0000 (5.1)	0.0043 (7.1)	0.0000 (5.6)	0.0000 (5.1)
Lance Lynn	0.0148	0.0000 (5.7)	0.0075 (5.3)	0.0000 (6.2)	0.0000 (5.7)
Shawn Camp	0.0245	0.0000 (5.7)	0.0101 (4.7)	0.0000 (5.9)	0.0000 (5.7)
Wade Miley	0.0148	0.0000 (6.2)	0.0042 (8.4)	0.0000 (6.7)	0.0000 (6.2)
Homer Bailey	0.0145	0.0000 (6.5)	0.0072 (6.2)	0.0000 (7.0)	0.0000 (6.5)

Individual Misses for Triple Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Edwin Jackson	0.0000	0.0148	6.1
2	Bronson Arroyo	0.0000	0.0000	5.9
3	Ricky Romero	0.0000	0.0000	5.9
4	Ricky Nolasco	0.0000	0.0142	5.9
5	Josh Tomlin	0.0000	0.0200	5.8
6	Adam Wainwright	0.0000	0.0139	5.7
7	Jonathon Niese	0.0000	0.0000	5.6
8	A.J. Griffin	0.0073	0.0000	4.9
9	Miguel González	0.0073	0.0033	4.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Bruce Chen	0.0023	0.0100	6.3
2	Jeremy Guthrie	0.0087	0.0017	5.7
3	Mike Fiers	0.0128	0.0028	5.5
4	Jerome Williams	0.0049	0.0144	5.3
5	Madison Bumgarner	0.0057	0.0121	5.3
6	Jeremy Hellickson	0.0086	0.0019	5.1
7	Jonathon Niese	0.0062	0.0000	5.0
8	Tim Hudson	0.0036	0.0104	5.0
9	Chris Perez	0.0057	0.0252	4.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Edwin Jackson	0.0000	0.0148	6.6
2	Ricky Nolasco	0.0000	0.0142	6.4
3	Adam Wainwright	0.0000	0.0139	6.2
4	Josh Tomlin	0.0000	0.0200	6.1
5	Bronson Arroyo	0.0000	0.0000	5.4
6	Ubaldo Jiménez	0.0000	0.0131	5.4
7	Ricky Romero	0.0000	0.0000	5.4
8	Dallas Keuchel	0.0073	0.0000	5.2
9	Cole De Vries	0.0073	0.0000	5.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Edwin Jackson	0.0000	0.0148	6.1
2	Bronson Arroyo	0.0000	0.0000	5.9
3	Ricky Romero	0.0000	0.0000	5.9
4	Ricky Nolasco	0.0000	0.0142	5.9
5	Josh Tomlin	0.0000	0.0200	5.8
6	Adam Wainwright	0.0000	0.0139	5.7
7	Jonathon Niese	0.0000	0.0000	5.6
8	A.J. Griffin	0.0073	0.0000	4.9
9	Miguel González	0.0073	0.0033	4.8

Most Unique Misses for Triple Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Bruce Chen	0.0023	0.0000	0.0100	6.3	2.4	3.9
2	Jordan Lyles	0.0126	0.0000	0.0065	3.9	0.4	3.5
3	Zack Greinke	0.0106	0.0000	0.0067	3.5	0.3	3.2
4	Mike Fiers	0.0128	0.0000	0.0028	5.5	2.3	3.2
5	Travis Blackley	0.0073	0.0073	0.0152	3.4	0.4	3.1
6	Mat Latos	0.0100	0.0000	0.0069	2.8	0.2	2.6
7	Tim Hudson	0.0036	0.0000	0.0104	5.0	2.4	2.5
8	Johnny Cueto	0.0042	0.0000	0.0093	4.4	2.0	2.5
9	Wade Miley	0.0042	0.0000	0.0148	8.4	6.2	2.2
10	Derek Holland	0.0041	0.0000	0.0100	4.2	2.1	2.1

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jose Quintana	0.0073	0.0070	3.8	0.1	3.8
2	Aaron Laffey	0.0073	0.0031	4.6	1.7	2.9
3	David Phelps	0.0073	0.0038	4.1	1.4	2.8
4	Dallas Keuchel	0.0073	0.0000	5.2	2.7	2.5
5	Christian Friedrich	0.0073	0.0039	3.7	1.2	2.5
6	Cole De Vries	0.0073	0.0000	5.2	2.7	2.5
7	Héctor Santiago	0.0073	0.0000	4.2	2.2	2.0
8	Brad Brach	0.0073	0.0000	3.9	2.0	1.9
9	Steve Delabar	0.0073	0.0000	3.8	2.0	1.8
10	Robbie Ross Jr.	0.0073	0.0053	2.3	0.5	1.8

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Kris Medlen	0.0500	0.1040 (28.8)	0.1139 (34.5)	0.1141 (33.3)	0.1040 (28.8)
Ricky Romero	0.1472	0.1021 (36.1)	0.1046 (33.3)	0.1141 (27.4)	0.1021 (36.1)
Kyle Lohse	0.0856	0.1185 (29.7)	0.1224 (33.9)	0.1141 (24.6)	0.1185 (29.7)
Randy Wolf	0.1474	0.1104 (24.8)	0.1076 (26.1)	0.1141 (23.2)	0.1104 (24.8)
Ubaldo Jiménez	0.1441	0.0960 (37.5)	0.1107 (25.0)	0.1141 (24.2)	0.0960 (37.5)
Fernando Rodney	0.0319	0.1140 (23.6)	0.1159 (24.4)	0.1141 (23.2)	0.1140 (23.6)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tim Lincecum	0.0826	0.1345	41.6
2	Jon Lester	0.0952	0.1336	32.3
3	Justin Masterson	0.1008	0.1347	29.3
4	Nate Jones	0.1490	0.0631	26.3
5	Jose Quintana	0.1535	0.1092	26.0
6	Scott Diamond	0.1405	0.1064	25.4
7	Tommy Hanson	0.0900	0.1248	25.3
8	Luke Hochevar	0.1259	0.1588	25.1
9	Bronson Arroyo	0.1313	0.1030	24.9
10	Wade Miley	0.1259	0.0979	23.9

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tim Lincecum	0.0905	0.1345	34.4
2	Jon Lester	0.0997	0.1336	27.5
3	A.J. Burnett	0.1302	0.1011	26.8
4	Ervin Santana	0.1086	0.1427	24.2
5	Roy Halladay	0.0813	0.1207	24.0
6	Clay Buchholz	0.0974	0.1297	24.0
7	Jonathan Sánchez	0.1089	0.1835	23.6
8	David Price	0.1011	0.0754	23.5
9	Philip Humber	0.1095	0.1602	22.3
10	Jonathon Niese	0.1227	0.0977	21.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Luke Hochevar	0.1141	0.1588	35.7
2	Clayton Kershaw	0.1141	0.0777	32.8
3	David Price	0.1141	0.0754	32.4
4	Nick Blackburn	0.1141	0.1776	29.0
5	Johnny Cueto	0.1141	0.0822	28.3
6	Justin Verlander	0.1141	0.0847	28.1
7	R.A. Dickey	0.1141	0.0841	27.8
8	Matt Cain	0.1141	0.0833	27.0
9	Jake Arrieta	0.1141	0.1653	25.4
10	Jordan Lyles	0.1141	0.1545	25.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Tim Lincecum	0.0826	0.1345	41.6
2	Jon Lester	0.0952	0.1336	32.3
3	Justin Masterson	0.1008	0.1347	29.3
4	Nate Jones	0.1490	0.0631	26.3
5	Jose Quintana	0.1535	0.1092	26.0
6	Scott Diamond	0.1405	0.1064	25.4
7	Tommy Hanson	0.0900	0.1248	25.3
8	Luke Hochevar	0.1259	0.1588	25.1
9	Bronson Arroyo	0.1313	0.1030	24.9
10	Wade Miley	0.1259	0.0979	23.9

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Christian Friedrich	0.1141	0.1546	0.1618	17.1	2.1	14.9
2	A.J. Burnett	0.1302	0.1137	0.1011	26.8	12.0	14.8
3	Edinson Volquez	0.1283	0.1050	0.1097	16.8	2.6	14.2
4	Henderson Alvarez	0.1097	0.1263	0.1363	19.5	6.9	12.6
5	Anthony Bass	0.0917	0.1161	0.1436	20.3	10.7	9.7
6	Philip Humber	0.1095	0.1306	0.1602	22.3	13.0	9.3
7	Jonathon Niese	0.1227	0.1129	0.0977	21.5	13.1	8.4
8	Rhiner Cruz	0.1141	0.1455	0.1502	8.5	0.8	7.7
9	Corey Kluber	0.1167	0.1448	0.1566	10.5	2.9	7.7
10	Tommy Hunter	0.1185	0.1325	0.1483	15.7	8.2	7.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Clayton Kershaw	0.1141	0.0734	0.0777	32.8	2.5	30.3
2	Justin Verlander	0.1141	0.0855	0.0847	28.1	2.2	25.9
3	Matt Cain	0.1141	0.0865	0.0833	27.0	4.1	22.8
4	Félix Hernández	0.1141	0.0857	0.0895	23.1	2.1	21.0
5	Jered Weaver	0.1141	0.0906	0.0853	21.3	5.1	16.3
6	Cole Hamels	0.1141	0.0943	0.0923	18.9	3.1	15.8
7	Christian Friedrich	0.1141	0.1546	0.1618	18.0	2.1	15.8
8	Félix Doubront	0.1141	0.1318	0.1340	14.1	0.5	13.6
9	David Price	0.1141	0.0965	0.0754	32.4	18.9	13.5
10	Gio Gonzalez	0.1141	0.0967	0.0839	24.8	11.7	13.1

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err
1	Mike Fiers	0.1092	0.1092	0.1039	3.7	3.7
2	Lucas Harrell	0.1280	0.1280	0.1088	17.1	17.1
3	Phil Hughes	0.1310	0.1310	0.1239	7.0	7.0
4	Chris Young	0.1120	0.1120	0.1176	2.1	2.1
5	Stephen Strasburg	0.0825	0.0825	0.0949	7.1	7.1
6	Jake Peavy	0.1187	0.1187	0.0998	18.0	18.0
7	Nathan Eovaldi	0.1117	0.1117	0.1122	0.6	0.6
8	Matt Cain	0.0865	0.0865	0.0833	4.1	4.1
9	Bruce Chen	0.1218	0.1218	0.1378	12.0	12.0
10	Chris Resop	0.1053	0.1053	0.1061	0.2	0.2

Earned Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Earned Run Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jonathan Sánchez	0.1774	0.1061 (23.4)	0.0980 (25.2)	0.1057 (23.0)	0.1065 (23.2)
Kris Medlen	0.0462	0.0956 (25.6)	0.1040 (31.3)	0.0928 (24.9)	0.0983 (27.0)
Ricky Romero	0.1399	0.0988 (34.3)	0.0935 (36.6)	0.1020 (30.4)	0.0955 (37.0)
Kyle Lohse	0.0775	0.1131 (30.6)	0.1093 (29.5)	0.1152 (33.7)	0.1111 (28.8)
Roy Halladay	0.1207	0.0821 (25.1)	0.0750 (28.1)	0.0874 (20.7)	0.0768 (28.5)
Tim Lincecum	0.1297	0.0818 (39.7)	0.0829 (36.7)	0.0867 (34.4)	0.0770 (43.6)
Nick Blackburn	0.1776	0.1237 (24.7)	0.1152 (27.4)	0.1246 (23.6)	0.1227 (25.1)
Ubaldo Jiménez	0.1317	0.0943 (30.2)	0.1013 (22.6)	0.0985 (25.6)	0.0902 (33.6)
Jon Lester	0.1256	0.0909 (30.6)	0.0930 (26.5)	0.0928 (27.6)	0.0890 (32.2)
Fernando Rodney	0.0177	0.1023 (23.8)	0.1063 (25.6)	0.0994 (23.4)	0.1053 (24.6)

Individual Misses for Earned Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	R.A. Dickey	0.1066	0.0766	27.6
2	Luke Hochevar	0.1146	0.1475	26.5
3	Jose Quintana	0.1439	0.1004	24.6
4	Justin Masterson	0.0995	0.1247	23.1
5	Scott Diamond	0.1269	0.0952	22.4
6	Johnny Cueto	0.1003	0.0755	21.9
7	Randy Wolf	0.1107	0.1416	21.8
8	Ervin Santana	0.1058	0.1335	21.3
9	Tommy Hanson	0.0877	0.1143	20.4
10	Francisco Liriano	0.1051	0.1342	20.3

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Randy Wolf	0.0999	0.1416	27.6
2	A.J. Burnett	0.1221	0.0928	26.9
3	Philip Humber	0.1025	0.1580	24.6
4	Clay Buchholz	0.0875	0.1197	24.0
5	Ervin Santana	0.1001	0.1335	23.7
6	Jake Peavy	0.1162	0.0930	22.5
7	Craig Stammen	0.1179	0.0622	21.5
8	Justin Masterson	0.0999	0.1247	20.4
9	Josh Tomlin	0.1147	0.1615	20.1
10	Bruce Chen	0.1047	0.1306	19.5

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	R.A. Dickey	0.1153	0.0766	37.1
2	Johnny Cueto	0.1077	0.0755	29.8
3	Luke Hochevar	0.1118	0.1475	27.5
4	Wei-Yin Chen	0.1339	0.1051	24.6
5	Mike Fiers	0.0526	0.0983	23.9
6	Jeremy Hellickson	0.1132	0.0823	23.9
7	Matt Harrison	0.1121	0.0890	21.3
8	Matt Cain	0.1003	0.0776	21.0
9	Tommy Hunter	0.1034	0.1414	21.0
10	Ervin Santana	0.1048	0.1335	20.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Justin Masterson	0.0941	0.1247	28.0
2	Randy Wolf	0.1027	0.1416	27.4
3	Scott Diamond	0.1316	0.0952	25.8
4	Jose Quintana	0.1439	0.1004	24.6
5	Luke Hochevar	0.1173	0.1475	24.3
6	Josh Johnson	0.0714	0.1015	24.2
7	Wade Miley	0.1184	0.0892	23.4
8	Tommy Hanson	0.0845	0.1143	22.8
9	Chris Tillman	0.1467	0.0807	22.8
10	Nate Jones	0.1389	0.0631	22.8

Most Unique Misses for Earned Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	A.J. Burnett	0.1221	0.1045	0.0928	26.9	9.7	17.2
2	Christian Friedrich	0.1050	0.1448	0.1538	17.5	3.5	14.1
3	Clay Buchholz	0.0875	0.1027	0.1197	24.0	13.8	10.2
4	Brandon Morrow	0.1157	0.0986	0.0813	18.5	8.6	9.9
5	Will Smith	0.1050	0.1367	0.1338	10.5	1.0	9.5
6	Jake Peavy	0.1162	0.1085	0.0930	22.5	13.5	9.0
7	Henderson Alvarez	0.1022	0.1148	0.1252	16.6	8.5	8.1
8	Edinson Volquez	0.1208	0.0964	0.1047	14.7	6.8	7.9
9	Bruce Chen	0.1047	0.1168	0.1306	19.5	11.6	7.9
10	James Shields	0.1010	0.0954	0.0943	8.5	0.9	7.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Christian Friedrich	0.1050	0.1448	0.1538	17.9	3.5	14.4
2	Mike Fiers	0.0526	0.0773	0.0983	23.9	11.5	12.5
3	Mark Buehrle	0.1178	0.1068	0.1014	14.7	4.3	10.4
4	Will Smith	0.1050	0.1367	0.1338	10.9	1.0	9.9
5	Matt Cain	0.1003	0.0906	0.0776	21.0	11.2	9.9
6	R.A. Dickey	0.1153	0.1066	0.0766	37.1	27.6	9.6
7	Wei-Yin Chen	0.1339	0.1243	0.1051	24.6	15.5	9.1
8	Jeremy Hellickson	0.1132	0.1031	0.0823	23.9	15.2	8.6
9	Johnny Cueto	0.1077	0.1003	0.0755	29.8	21.9	7.9
10	Rhiner Cruz	0.1050	0.1360	0.1462	10.1	2.6	7.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Josh Johnson	0.0714	0.0827	0.1015	24.2	15.2	9.0
2	Lucas Harrell	0.1199	0.1094	0.0979	18.0	9.3	8.7
3	Clay Buchholz	0.0927	0.1027	0.1197	21.8	13.8	8.0
4	Craig Stammen	0.1225	0.1052	0.0622	22.3	15.8	6.4
5	Phil Hughes	0.1217	0.1148	0.1092	10.1	4.4	5.7
6	Randy Wolf	0.1027	0.1107	0.1416	27.4	21.8	5.6
7	Adam Wainwright	0.0821	0.0886	0.1047	18.9	13.5	5.4
8	Jeremy Guthrie	0.1078	0.1144	0.1218	11.2	6.0	5.2
9	Justin Masterson	0.0941	0.0995	0.1247	28.0	23.1	4.9
10	Jared Hughes	0.1288	0.1139	0.0759	16.6	11.9	4.7

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Barry Zito	0.4688	0.2924 (141.1)	0.1923 (178.1)	0.2821 (150.0)	0.3043 (144.8)
Gio Gonzalez	0.6562	0.3959 (214.2)	0.3250 (228.3)	0.3676 (238.1)	0.4242 (204.5)
David Price	0.6452	0.4593 (155.5)	0.3250 (222.9)	0.4492 (164.6)	0.4688 (161.5)
Lance Lynn	0.5143	0.1509 (270.5)	0.0909 (275.2)	0.1161 (297.0)	0.2414 (215.5)
R.A. Dickey	0.5882	0.3482 (222.7)	0.2000 (310.3)	0.3062 (262.4)	0.3929 (196.7)
A.J. Burnett	0.5161	0.3423 (148.1)	0.2632 (169.8)	0.3590 (134.6)	0.3214 (180.0)
Chris Sale	0.5667	0.3648 (156.0)	0.0732 (339.7)	0.3489 (168.9)	0.3846 (153.5)
Johnny Cueto	0.5758	0.3531 (197.9)	0.2857 (210.1)	0.3617 (191.0)	0.3448 (220.0)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Cliff Lee	0.5084	0.2000	261.0
2	Lucas Harrell	0.0895	0.3438	210.4
3	Phil Hughes	0.2627	0.5000	193.6
4	Jeff Samardzija	0.0589	0.3214	189.9
5	Jon Lester	0.4803	0.2727	181.7
6	Wade Miley	0.3043	0.5000	158.1
7	Jered Weaver	0.4609	0.6667	152.2
8	Ricky Romero	0.4505	0.2812	140.2
9	Kyle Lohse	0.3228	0.4848	140.1
10	Kevin Correia	0.1882	0.3750	136.1

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Matt Harrison	0.2381	0.5625	237.3
2	Wade Miley	0.1786	0.5000	216.2
3	Jarrod Parker	0.1111	0.4483	213.0
4	Yu Darvish	0.2497	0.5517	202.8
5	Stephen Strasburg	0.1852	0.5357	194.0
6	Jered Weaver	0.3590	0.6667	187.9
7	Cole Hamels	0.2821	0.5484	184.5
8	Scott Diamond	0.1379	0.4444	180.7
9	Tommy Milone	0.1429	0.4194	176.4
10	Phil Hughes	0.2500	0.5000	160.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Phil Hughes	0.2007	0.5000	244.7
2	Lucas Harrell	0.0566	0.3438	238.3
3	Cliff Lee	0.4669	0.2000	225.2
4	Jeff Samardzija	0.0491	0.3214	197.7
5	Jered Weaver	0.4212	0.6667	182.1
6	Félix Doubront	0.1444	0.3793	167.3
7	Kevin Correia	0.1490	0.3750	165.3
8	Tim Hudson	0.3632	0.5714	156.7
9	Matt Harrison	0.3923	0.5625	150.0
10	Kyle Kendrick	0.0871	0.2973	142.3

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Cliff Lee	0.5517	0.2000	283.7
2	Jon Lester	0.5333	0.2727	213.6
3	Wade Miley	0.2593	0.5000	207.8
4	Jeff Samardzija	0.0704	0.3214	193.6
5	Kyle Lohse	0.3182	0.4848	158.5
6	Ricky Romero	0.4839	0.2812	154.1
7	Tim Lincecum	0.5000	0.3030	148.7
8	Randy Wolf	0.3929	0.1667	146.4
9	James McDonald	0.2121	0.4000	145.9
10	Ubaldo Jiménez	0.4839	0.2903	142.3

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Chris Sale	0.0732	0.3648	0.5667	339.7	156.0	183.7
2	Jarrod Parker	0.1111	0.3404	0.4483	213.0	81.2	131.9
3	Yu Darvish	0.2497	0.4529	0.5517	202.8	80.8	122.0
4	Tommy Milone	0.1429	0.3479	0.4194	176.4	56.7	119.7
5	Matt Harrison	0.2381	0.4271	0.5625	237.3	118.8	118.5
6	Stephen Strasburg	0.1852	0.4136	0.5357	194.0	79.9	114.1
7	Mat Latos	0.2500	0.4199	0.4242	103.6	3.9	99.7
8	Matt Moore	0.1667	0.3734	0.3548	102.2	13.9	88.3
9	R.A. Dickey	0.2000	0.3482	0.5882	310.3	222.7	87.6
10	James Shields	0.3000	0.4444	0.4545	95.4	9.7	85.7

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Rhiner Cruz	0.2497	0.0408	0.0192	58.0	5.4	52.6
2	Phil Hughes	0.2007	0.2627	0.5000	244.7	193.6	51.2
3	Kelvin Herrera	0.2497	0.1020	0.0526	67.4	16.9	50.5
4	Steve Delabar	0.2497	0.0652	0.0656	50.2	0.2	50.0
5	Brad Brach	0.2497	0.0725	0.0299	61.3	11.9	49.4
6	Yovani Gallardo	0.3894	0.4437	0.4848	83.0	35.6	47.4
7	Félix Doubront	0.1444	0.2104	0.3793	167.3	119.9	47.3
8	Chad Durbin	0.2497	0.0370	0.0526	50.4	4.1	46.3
9	Dale Thayer	0.2497	0.0536	0.0312	51.1	5.2	45.9
10	Wei-Yin Chen	0.2620	0.3158	0.3750	93.2	48.6	44.7

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Alexi Ogando	0.4444	0.2042	0.0345	103.4	44.6	58.8
2	Adam Wainwright	0.5600	0.4743	0.4375	87.9	30.4	57.5
3	Freddy Garcia	0.3913	0.2541	0.2333	65.1	9.5	55.6
4	Adam Ottavino	0.2727	0.0888	0.0943	54.8	1.9	52.8
5	Esmil Rogers	0.2593	0.0924	0.0448	68.8	16.5	52.3
6	Anthony Swarzak	0.2222	0.0802	0.0682	56.7	4.9	51.8
7	Wade Miley	0.2593	0.3043	0.5000	207.8	158.1	49.7
8	Brett Myers	0.2857	0.0920	0.0429	61.5	13.3	48.2
9	Joe Blanton	0.2632	0.3028	0.3226	61.4	16.1	45.3
10	Mike Minor	0.2812	0.3250	0.3667	74.4	30.5	43.9

Loss Rate

Everybody Missed for Loss Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Josh Beckett	0.5000	0.2618 (170.0)	0.1944 (177.1)	0.2833 (160.2)	0.2400 (189.3)
Kyle Lohse	0.0909	0.3723 (247.8)	0.2368 (180.5)	0.3815 (248.7)	0.3636 (236.2)
Mike Fiers	0.4348	0.1827 (133.0)	0.0833 (155.5)	0.1790 (139.3)	0.1852 (134.2)
Mat Latos	0.1212	0.2920 (151.2)	0.3000 (207.5)	0.3021 (152.8)	0.2812 (137.9)
Jeff Samardzija	0.4643	0.0581 (289.8)	0.0889 (225.9)	0.0476 (303.3)	0.0704 (284.3)
Justin Germano	0.7143	0.0968 (195.9)	0.1111 (172.9)	0.2441 (151.4)	0.0968 (197.4)
Erik Bedard	0.5833	0.2979 (156.0)	0.2059 (175.1)	0.3317 (141.7)	0.2667 (176.0)
Ubaldo Jiménez	0.5484	0.3092 (188.2)	0.2703 (173.2)	0.3266 (180.8)	0.2903 (207.2)

Individual Misses for Loss Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Lucas Harrell	0.1063	0.3438	191.9
2	Josh Johnson	0.2316	0.4516	171.3
3	R.A. Dickey	0.3441	0.1765	160.4
4	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.4618	0.1667	155.9
5	Nathan Eovaldi	0.3173	0.5909	141.1
6	Phil Hughes	0.2283	0.4062	140.7
7	Matt Cain	0.3055	0.1562	135.5
8	Jon Lester	0.2675	0.4242	132.6
9	Brad Lincoln	0.3761	0.0385	124.2
10	Scott Feldman	0.1430	0.3793	123.8

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Nathan Eovaldi	0.1538	0.5909	196.7
2	Henderson Alvarez	0.1613	0.4516	183.4
3	Josh Johnson	0.1600	0.4516	182.4
4	Travis Wood	0.1765	0.5000	169.1
5	Hector Noesí	0.1111	0.5455	168.2
6	Joe Blanton	0.1667	0.4194	152.9
7	Luke Hochevar	0.2632	0.5000	139.1
8	Matt Moore	0.1111	0.3548	137.2
9	Tyson Ross	0.1600	0.6111	132.7
10	Justin Masterson	0.2326	0.4412	131.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Lucas Harrell	0.0474	0.3438	247.3
2	R.A. Dickey	0.3990	0.1765	203.7
3	Phil Hughes	0.1700	0.4062	194.8
4	Matt Cain	0.3569	0.1562	173.3
5	Scott Feldman	0.0949	0.3793	153.9
6	Kyle Kendrick	0.0993	0.3243	153.5
7	Félix Doubront	0.1363	0.3448	149.8
8	Tyson Ross	0.2051	0.6111	139.8
9	Jon Lester	0.2684	0.4242	139.0
10	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.4288	0.1667	134.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Josh Johnson	0.1500	0.4516	240.2
2	Hisashi Iwakuma	0.5000	0.1667	173.3
3	Nathan Eovaldi	0.2692	0.5909	168.9
4	Justin Masterson	0.2727	0.4412	152.0
5	Hector Noesí	0.2258	0.5455	144.5
6	Tim Lincecum	0.2812	0.4545	142.4
7	Jon Lester	0.2667	0.4242	137.5
8	Travis Wood	0.2903	0.5000	135.7
9	Brad Lincoln	0.4074	0.0385	133.8
10	Bud Norris	0.2667	0.4483	132.6

Most Unique Misses for Loss Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Tommy Milone	0.1071	0.3242	0.3226	120.6	5.6	115.0
2	Wade Miley	0.1429	0.3457	0.3438	111.3	5.9	105.4
3	Clayton Richard	0.2258	0.3811	0.4242	123.2	34.4	88.9
4	Chris Young	0.1250	0.3573	0.4500	129.2	43.1	86.1
5	Blake Beavan	0.2121	0.4311	0.4231	94.4	8.6	85.8
6	Bruce Chen	0.2162	0.3769	0.4118	109.6	24.4	85.2
7	Henderson Alvarez	0.1613	0.3244	0.4516	183.4	98.3	85.1
8	Matt Harrison	0.1667	0.3168	0.3438	99.9	18.9	81.0
9	Luis Mendoza	0.1053	0.3807	0.3333	117.0	37.4	79.6
10	Matt Moore	0.1111	0.2692	0.3548	137.2	60.9	76.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Will Smith	0.2441	0.4615	0.5625	127.2	37.9	89.3
2	Kevin Correia	0.1755	0.2689	0.3438	124.5	50.6	74.0
3	Dallas Keuchel	0.2441	0.4231	0.5000	97.5	27.0	70.6
4	Félix Doubront	0.1363	0.2197	0.3448	149.8	84.9	64.9
5	Lucas Harrell	0.0474	0.1063	0.3438	247.3	191.9	55.4
6	Phil Hughes	0.1700	0.2283	0.4062	194.8	140.7	54.2
7	Kelvin Herrera	0.2441	0.0816	0.0395	69.4	16.4	53.1
8	Chad Durbin	0.2441	0.0370	0.0132	58.6	7.5	51.1
9	Luis Mendoza	0.4598	0.3807	0.3333	87.7	37.4	50.3
10	Patrick Corbin	0.2441	0.3462	0.3636	55.5	5.5	50.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Adam Ottavino	0.3636	0.0927	0.0189	117.1	26.9	90.2
2	Craig Stammen	0.3103	0.0873	0.0169	108.8	28.0	80.8
3	Anthony Swarzak	0.3333	0.1029	0.1364	81.6	11.6	70.0
4	Josh Johnson	0.1500	0.2316	0.4516	240.2	171.3	68.9
5	Esmil Rogers	0.2963	0.0946	0.0448	87.8	19.2	68.6
6	Freddy Garcia	0.3478	0.2275	0.2000	68.5	15.1	53.3
7	Tom Gorzelanny	0.2333	0.0616	0.0444	58.0	6.9	51.1
8	Brett Myers	0.3214	0.0778	0.1143	56.5	8.5	48.1
9	Tom Wilhelmsen	0.2500	0.1009	0.0411	68.3	21.3	47.1
10	A.J. Burnett	0.3929	0.3335	0.3226	60.4	13.9	46.5

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Alfredo Aceves	0.3623	0.0200 (122.6)	0.0488 (120.4)	0.0158 (124.8)	0.0000 (121.0)
Aroldis Chapman	0.5588	0.0180 (148.5)	0.0278 (152.1)	0.0222 (147.8)	0.0000 (146.8)
Tyler Clippard	0.4324	0.0267 (123.7)	0.0185 (133.2)	0.0242 (125.0)	0.0000 (124.4)
Jim Johnson	0.7183	0.4868 (61.6)	0.1042 (170.6)	0.4492 (72.2)	0.0000 (185.9)
Rafael Soriano	0.6087	0.0378 (158.5)	0.2895 (94.7)	0.0392 (158.6)	0.0000 (162.3)
Tom Wilhelmsen	0.3973	0.0256 (120.3)	0.0476 (120.5)	0.0172 (123.6)	0.0000 (120.7)
Fernando Rodney	0.6316	0.0000 (177.3)	0.1944 (128.9)	0.0000 (177.8)	0.0000 (170.5)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Brett Myers	1.0113	0.2714	202.0
2	Heath Bell	0.6960	0.2603	125.4
3	Brandon League	0.6075	0.2027	122.7
4	Jordan Walden	0.7095	0.0222	118.7
5	Carlos Marmol	0.7223	0.3279	98.1
6	Ernesto Frieri	0.0203	0.3433	86.2
7	Casey Janssen	0.0000	0.3548	85.2
8	Santiago Casilla	0.0520	0.3425	78.3
9	Matt Thornton	0.3309	0.0405	78.0
10	Kyle Farnsworth	0.6361	0.0000	76.7

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jason Motte	0.0755	0.6269	159.5
2	Rafael Betancourt	0.0600	0.5167	112.5
3	Addison Reed	0.0714	0.4677	99.1
4	Ernesto Frieri	0.0244	0.3433	91.2
5	Grant Balfour	0.0435	0.3200	85.7
6	Casey Janssen	0.0250	0.3548	84.7
7	Joel Hanrahan	0.2692	0.5714	81.9
8	Kenley Jansen	0.0811	0.3846	81.6
9	Chris Perez	0.3333	0.6393	78.9
10	Chris Sale	0.1220	0.0000	78.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Heath Bell	0.6875	0.2603	122.5
2	Jordan Walden	0.7188	0.0222	120.0
3	Brandon League	0.5982	0.2027	119.3
4	Carlos Marmol	0.6961	0.3279	91.2
5	Ernesto Frieri	0.0192	0.3433	86.9
6	Brett Myers	0.5865	0.2714	86.0
7	Casey Janssen	0.0000	0.3548	85.6
8	Kyle Farnsworth	0.6600	0.0000	79.3
9	Santiago Casilla	0.0500	0.3425	79.3
10	Matt Thornton	0.3365	0.0405	79.0

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Actual	Error
1	Jason Motte	0.6269	167.3
2	Chris Perez	0.6393	148.2
3	Craig Kimbrel	0.6667	147.7
4	Jonathan Papelbon	0.5429	146.5
5	Joel Hanrahan	0.5714	138.3
6	Joe Nathan	0.5606	137.1
7	Jose Valverde	0.4930	137.0
8	John Axford	0.4667	136.3
9	J.J. Putz	0.5614	116.5
10	Rafael Betancourt	0.5167	115.5

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jason Motte	0.0755	0.5458	0.6269	159.5	21.8	137.6
2	Jim Johnson	0.1042	0.4868	0.7183	170.6	61.6	109.1
3	Rafael Betancourt	0.0600	0.4516	0.5167	112.5	14.7	97.8
4	Chris Sale	0.1220	0.0000	0.0000	78.6	2.1	76.5
5	Kenley Jansen	0.0811	0.3588	0.3846	81.6	5.8	75.7
6	Joel Hanrahan	0.2692	0.6087	0.5714	81.9	10.2	71.7
7	Chris Perez	0.3333	0.6015	0.6393	78.9	8.5	70.4
8	Craig Kimbrel	0.3673	0.6799	0.6667	73.8	3.7	70.1
9	Addison Reed	0.0714	0.3354	0.4677	99.1	30.8	68.3
10	Neftalí Feliz	0.3958	0.0000	0.0000	65.8	0.5	65.3

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jose Quintana	0.0279	0.0000	0.0000	16.4	1.5	14.8
2	Joe Kelly	0.0279	0.0000	0.0000	13.2	1.2	11.9
3	Aaron Laffey	0.0279	0.0000	0.0000	12.4	1.2	11.2
4	Drew Smyly	0.0279	0.0000	0.0000	12.0	1.1	10.9
5	David Phelps	0.0279	0.0000	0.0000	11.9	1.1	10.8
6	Eric Stults	0.0279	0.0000	0.0000	11.9	1.1	10.8
7	Jim Johnson	0.4492	0.4868	0.7183	72.2	61.6	10.6
8	Addison Reed	0.2931	0.3354	0.4677	41.3	30.8	10.5
9	Will Smith	0.0279	0.0000	0.0000	11.4	1.1	10.3
10	Dallas Keuchel	0.0279	0.0000	0.0000	10.9	1.0	9.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jason Motte	0.5458	0.6269	167.3	21.8	145.5
2	Craig Kimbrel	0.6799	0.6667	147.7	3.7	144.1
3	Chris Perez	0.6015	0.6393	148.2	8.5	139.7
4	Joel Hanrahan	0.6087	0.5714	138.3	10.2	128.1
5	Jim Johnson	0.4868	0.7183	185.9	61.6	124.4
6	Joe Nathan	0.6863	0.5606	137.1	33.0	104.1
7	Rafael Betancourt	0.4516	0.5167	115.5	14.7	100.8
8	J.J. Putz	0.6585	0.5614	116.5	21.8	94.7
9	Kenley Jansen	0.3588	0.3846	90.1	5.8	84.3
10	Jose Valverde	0.6817	0.4930	137.0	56.3	80.7

Hold Rate

Everybody Missed for Hold Rate

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jason Grilli	0.5000	0.2109 (71.4)	0.2000 (81.6)	0.2034 (73.4)	0.0000 (109.6)
Mitchell Boggs	0.4359	0.1563 (83.8)	0.0750 (117.0)	0.1400 (88.8)	0.0000 (113.9)
Vicente Padilla	0.4107	0.0328 (83.1)	0.1500 (64.4)	0.0385 (82.1)	0.0000 (78.4)

Individual Misses for Hold Rate

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Lance Lynn	0.2709	0.0286	177.8
2	Lucas Harrell	0.2183	0.0000	177.7
3	Jeff Samardzija	0.1698	0.0000	120.3
4	Ronald Belisario	0.0000	0.3382	97.7
5	Brian Duensing	0.3359	0.1273	96.9
6	Rafael Soriano	0.3778	0.0580	88.3
7	Kelvin Herrera	0.0000	0.2500	87.2
8	Ryan Cook	0.0000	0.2958	86.2
9	Dale Thayer	0.0000	0.3438	81.6
10	Marco Estrada	0.1685	0.0345	73.4

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Chris Sale	0.1951	0.0000	124.0
2	Francisco Rodríguez	0.1176	0.4103	99.8
3	Daniel Bard	0.3585	0.0000	89.7
4	Vinnie Pestano	0.2500	0.5143	85.5
5	Joel Peralta	0.2222	0.4868	79.0
6	Edward Mujica	0.1667	0.4286	76.5
7	Sean Doolittle	0.0524	0.4091	74.7
8	Kris Medlen	0.0526	0.1600	73.8
9	Phil Hughes	0.1250	0.0000	73.7
10	Dale Thayer	0.0667	0.3438	73.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Lance Lynn	0.1875	0.0286	115.1
2	Jeff Samardzija	0.1579	0.0000	111.1
3	Lucas Harrell	0.1316	0.0000	105.4
4	Ronald Belisario	0.0000	0.3382	97.9
5	Rafael Soriano	0.3922	0.0580	92.1
6	Anthony Bass	0.2500	0.0417	83.9
7	Alex Cobb	0.1364	0.0000	75.2
8	Ryan Cook	0.0524	0.2958	71.3
9	Brad Lincoln	0.0000	0.1923	71.1
10	Dale Thayer	0.0524	0.3438	69.4

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Actual	Error
1	Vinnie Pestano	0.5143	132.5
2	Joel Peralta	0.4868	115.1
3	Francisco Rodríguez	0.4103	109.6
4	Joaquín Benoit	0.4110	103.7
5	David Robertson	0.4615	101.8
6	Edward Mujica	0.4286	97.4
7	Matt Belisle	0.3250	95.4
8	Sean Burnett	0.4429	93.7
9	Mike Adams	0.4426	89.3
10	Eric O'Flaherty	0.4375	88.9

Most Unique Misses for Hold Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Chris Sale	0.1951	0.0000	0.0000	124.0	2.6	121.4
2	Francisco Rodríguez	0.1176	0.4032	0.4103	99.8	3.2	96.6
3	Daniel Bard	0.3585	0.0000	0.0000	89.7	0.9	88.8
4	Wade Miley	0.1071	0.0000	0.0000	58.6	2.7	55.9
5	Matt Moore	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	58.1	2.6	55.6
6	Jarrod Parker	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	57.5	2.6	55.0
7	Tommy Milone	0.1071	0.0000	0.0000	57.5	2.7	54.8
8	David Hernandez	0.1860	0.3391	0.3472	54.4	3.2	51.2
9	Kris Medlen	0.0526	0.2126	0.1600	73.8	25.6	48.2
10	Luis Mendoza	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	50.2	2.4	47.8

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Jose Quintana	0.0524	0.0000	0.0000	27.4	1.9	25.5
2	Anthony Bass	0.2500	0.1917	0.0417	83.9	60.3	23.6
3	Joe Kelly	0.0524	0.0000	0.0000	22.1	1.6	20.5
4	Patrick Corbin	0.0524	0.0000	0.0000	21.9	1.5	20.4
5	Aaron Laffey	0.0524	0.0000	0.0000	20.7	1.5	19.3
6	Eric Stults	0.0524	0.0000	0.0000	19.9	1.4	18.5
7	Will Smith	0.0524	0.0000	0.0000	19.1	1.3	17.8
8	Randy Choate	0.3605	0.2557	0.2500	17.9	0.4	17.5
9	Jared Hughes	0.1250	0.1789	0.1818	19.3	2.0	17.3
10	Dallas Keuchel	0.0524	0.0000	0.0000	18.2	1.3	16.9

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Francisco Rodríguez	0.4032	0.4103	109.6	3.2	106.4
2	David Robertson	0.4406	0.4615	101.8	6.0	95.8
3	Joaquín Benoit	0.3727	0.4110	103.7	12.0	91.7
4	Vinnie Pestano	0.3571	0.5143	132.5	45.9	86.6
5	David Hernandez	0.3391	0.3472	82.4	3.2	79.1
6	Mike Adams	0.3834	0.4426	89.3	14.3	75.0
7	Antonio Bastardo	0.3739	0.4000	78.2	6.6	71.6
8	Eric O'Flaherty	0.3464	0.4375	88.9	21.7	67.2
9	Joel Peralta	0.2997	0.4868	115.1	50.3	64.8
10	Scott Downs	0.3695	0.4386	75.2	14.1	61.1

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jonathan Sánchez	8.0722	4.3200 (1257.7)	3.7821 (1359.1)	4.2824 (1234.7)	4.3580 (1251.6)
Kris Medlen	1.5652	3.6852 (1053.5)	3.9212 (1294.7)	3.5454 (1037.0)	3.8275 (1117.3)
Ricky Romero	5.7680	3.8609 (1658.9)	3.5131 (1758.3)	3.9993 (1454.7)	3.7233 (1789.1)
Kyle Lohse	2.8578	4.4477 (1292.4)	4.2004 (1275.7)	4.5301 (1456.9)	4.3654 (1204.5)
Tim Lincecum	5.1774	3.1119 (1781.6)	3.1116 (1593.8)	3.3052 (1533.1)	2.9196 (1956.3)
Nick Blackburn	7.3885	4.9618 (1149.5)	4.5302 (1242.3)	4.9644 (1099.0)	4.9592 (1159.5)
Ubaldo Jiménez	5.4000	3.6793 (1460.9)	3.8557 (1135.4)	3.8349 (1248.7)	3.5231 (1602.2)
Jon Lester	4.8214	3.5194 (1222.9)	3.4947 (1044.9)	3.5787 (1076.5)	3.4597 (1292.3)
Fernando Rodney	0.6027	4.1203 (965.5)	4.2217 (1058.3)	3.9281 (941.7)	4.3200 (1016.3)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Jose Quintana	6.1364	3.7628	1294.8
2	R.A. Dickey	4.1665	2.7347	1240.1
3	Scott Diamond	5.2812	3.5376	1177.8
4	Luke Hochevar	4.5307	5.7302	1034.8
5	Justin Masterson	3.9082	4.9289	1009.9
6	Roy Halladay	3.0339	4.4904	1001.6
7	Wade Miley	4.6308	3.3288	974.9
8	Randy Wolf	4.3940	5.6512	944.5
9	Joe Kelly	5.6911	3.5327	943.4
10	Johnny Cueto	3.9330	2.7788	941.4

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	A.J. Burnett	4.8120	3.5140	1218.5
2	Randy Wolf	3.8194	5.6512	1186.8
3	Philip Humber	3.8897	6.4412	1116.9
4	Roy Halladay	2.7231	4.4904	1055.1
5	Jake Peavy	4.3990	3.3699	1025.8
6	Ervin Santana	3.8151	5.1573	923.1
7	Josh Tomlin	4.2346	6.3581	899.3
8	Clay Buchholz	3.3166	4.5634	892.5
9	David Price	3.4615	2.5592	866.3
10	Joe Paterson	3.7850	37.1250	863.4

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	R.A. Dickey	4.5731	2.7347	1717.2
2	Johnny Cueto	4.2321	2.7788	1302.9
3	Wei-Yin Chen	5.4119	4.0173	1152.2
4	Luke Hochevar	4.4006	5.7302	1052.6
5	Jeremy Hellickson	4.4676	3.1017	1022.4
6	Scott Diamond	4.9384	3.5376	1010.1
7	Matt Cain	3.8860	2.7903	972.1
8	Matt Harrison	4.3841	3.2906	970.1
9	Bronson Arroyo	4.8385	3.7426	926.7
10	Chris Volstad	4.4695	6.3054	923.8

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Scott Diamond	5.6450	3.5376	1423.7
2	Jose Quintana	6.1364	3.7628	1283.7
3	Wade Miley	4.9437	3.3288	1211.6
4	Justin Masterson	3.7059	4.9289	1210.9
5	Randy Wolf	4.0449	5.6512	1202.1
6	Roy Halladay	2.8326	4.4904	1144.2
7	Nate Jones	6.1644	2.3860	1103.1
8	Chris Tillman	6.2000	2.9302	1095.2
9	Tommy Hanson	3.2049	4.4828	1058.9
10	Josh Johnson	2.6573	3.8101	1010.5

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	A.J. Burnett	4.8120	4.1385	3.5140	1218.5	451.4	767.1
2	Christian Friedrich	4.0750	6.2653	6.1654	737.6	2.2	735.3
3	Rhiner Cruz	4.0750	6.1722	6.0545	466.9	6.0	461.0
4	Brandon Morrow	4.5028	3.8801	2.9599	845.1	416.4	428.7
5	Clay Buchholz	3.3166	4.0481	4.5634	892.5	488.6	403.9
6	Jake Peavy	4.3990	4.1976	3.3699	1025.8	647.2	378.7
7	Chris Capuano	4.2944	4.0645	3.7210	577.8	203.8	374.0
8	Marco Estrada	4.2583	3.8288	3.6434	420.9	51.4	369.5
9	James Shields	3.7611	3.6123	3.5183	355.6	0.0	355.6
10	Henderson Alvarez	3.8558	4.5223	4.8523	696.1	342.2	353.9

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Christian Friedrich	4.0750	6.2653	6.1654	782.8	2.2	780.6
2	Wei-Yin Chen	5.4119	4.9143	4.0173	1152.2	656.8	495.3
3	Rhiner Cruz	4.0750	6.1722	6.0545	497.3	6.0	491.3
4	Mark Buehrle	4.6223	4.1525	3.7364	745.1	266.7	478.4
5	R.A. Dickey	4.5731	4.1665	2.7347	1717.2	1240.1	477.0
6	Matt Cain	3.8860	3.4579	2.7903	972.1	502.5	469.6
7	Jeremy Hellickson	4.4676	4.0297	3.1017	1022.4	618.0	404.4
8	Johnny Cueto	4.2321	3.9330	2.7788	1302.9	941.4	361.5
9	P.J. Walters	4.0750	5.5161	5.6919	434.4	73.1	361.3
10	Will Smith	4.0750	5.7620	5.3197	487.4	137.9	349.5

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Lucas Harrell	5.0455	4.4374	3.7642	965.7	479.0	486.7
2	Josh Johnson	2.6573	3.1210	3.8101	1010.5	624.9	385.5
3	Clay Buchholz	3.6247	4.0481	4.5634	843.9	488.6	355.2
4	Craig Stammen	4.9333	4.0990	2.3434	916.3	614.8	301.5
5	Jeremy Guthrie	4.1966	4.5247	4.7560	530.2	256.3	273.9
6	Randy Wolf	4.0449	4.3940	5.6512	1202.1	944.5	257.6
7	Scott Diamond	5.6450	5.2812	3.5376	1423.7	1177.8	245.9
8	Jared Hughes	5.4000	4.6120	2.8546	768.5	525.6	242.8
9	Phil Hughes	4.8411	4.5260	4.1864	441.1	200.1	240.9
10	Wade Miley	4.9437	4.6308	3.3288	1211.6	974.9	236.7

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player	Actual	Aggregate	Marcel	Steamer	ZiPS
Jonathan Sánchez	2.0876	1.5088 (207.5)	1.3385 (243.4)	1.5209 (200.4)	1.4967 (207.8)
Ricky Romero	1.6740	1.3418 (321.6)	1.2583 (340.6)	1.4049 (261.4)	1.2791 (364.3)
Kyle Lohse	1.0900	1.3679 (191.9)	1.3317 (212.9)	1.3939 (222.7)	1.3420 (179.2)
Tommy Hanson	1.4542	1.2202 (220.5)	1.2170 (176.8)	1.2737 (172.4)	1.1675 (252.0)
Tim Lincecum	1.4677	1.2227 (248.1)	1.2258 (195.6)	1.2609 (208.7)	1.1848 (270.2)
Scott Diamond	1.2428	1.6353 (240.5)	1.4586 (157.5)	1.5577 (191.9)	1.7177 (307.4)
Ubaldo Jiménez	1.6132	1.3285 (274.0)	1.2909 (255.6)	1.3606 (240.5)	1.2964 (290.9)
Wade Miley	1.1815	1.5401 (244.4)	1.4416 (213.8)	1.4975 (217.8)	1.5845 (289.3)
Kris Medlen	0.9130	1.2738 (158.6)	1.2863 (196.6)	1.2600 (156.4)	1.2880 (171.8)
Fernando Rodney	0.7768	1.4709 (180.0)	1.4712 (197.2)	1.4429 (174.8)	1.5000 (191.4)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	R.A. Dickey	1.3435	1.0528	217.8
2	Steve Delabar	1.8621	1.0909	196.0
3	Chris Tillman	1.6099	1.0465	176.2
4	Randy Wolf	1.3822	1.5729	172.3
5	Joe Kelly	1.8067	1.3832	168.1
6	Jeff Samardzija	1.4909	1.2195	155.9
7	Aroldis Chapman	1.4141	0.8093	151.5
8	Jose Quintana	1.6705	1.3496	150.6
9	Cole De Vries	1.6607	1.2091	148.4
10	Ryan Cook	1.5000	0.9409	145.0

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Mike Minor	1.4326	1.1543	206.1
2	R.A. Dickey	1.2544	1.0528	191.4
3	Jonathon Niese	1.4042	1.1716	187.1
4	Gio Gonzalez	1.3465	1.1288	182.9
5	Randy Wolf	1.3112	1.5729	179.6
6	A.J. Burnett	1.4336	1.2405	168.4
7	Daniel Bard	1.1318	1.7360	166.0
8	Tyson Ross	1.3448	1.8136	158.7
9	Jake Peavy	1.2660	1.0959	154.3
10	Clayton Richard	1.3983	1.2348	153.2

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	R.A. Dickey	1.4382	1.0528	314.5
2	Mike Fiers	1.7706	1.2611	249.8
3	Matt Cain	1.3059	1.0395	192.9
4	Wei-Yin Chen	1.5275	1.2612	180.1
5	Chris Tillman	1.5765	1.0465	167.9
6	Jeff Samardzija	1.4950	1.2195	165.9
7	Gio Gonzalez	1.3654	1.1288	156.6
8	Jake Peavy	1.3160	1.0959	153.5
9	Paul Maholm	1.4611	1.2222	151.5
10	Mark Buehrle	1.3977	1.1713	149.2

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Actual	Error
1	Randy Wolf	1.3258	1.5729	203.8
2	Steve Delabar	1.8621	1.0909	199.1
3	Chris Tillman	1.6444	1.0465	192.0
4	Lucas Harrell	1.6212	1.3580	180.9
5	Aroldis Chapman	1.4863	0.8093	174.6
6	Joe Kelly	1.8067	1.3832	173.2
7	Josh Johnson	1.1111	1.2805	170.7
8	Jeremy Guthrie	1.2472	1.4092	162.7
9	Jeff Samardzija	1.4867	1.2195	161.0
10	Justin Masterson	1.3235	1.4540	158.5

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Minor	1.4326	1.3037	1.1543	206.1	68.2	137.9
2	Edwin Jackson	1.3818	1.2996	1.2179	133.3	20.5	112.8
3	Joe Blanton	1.3800	1.3209	1.2618	99.2	2.7	96.5
4	Will Smith	1.3213	1.6214	1.6059	110.8	15.9	94.8
5	A.J. Burnett	1.4336	1.3841	1.2405	168.4	74.8	93.7
6	Chris Capuano	1.3374	1.2913	1.2202	99.7	12.6	87.1
7	Jonathon Niese	1.4042	1.3607	1.1716	187.1	105.0	82.0
8	Homer Bailey	1.3415	1.3305	1.2404	92.6	30.1	62.5
9	James Shields	1.2340	1.2178	1.1684	66.5	5.9	60.6
10	Madison Bumgarner	1.2633	1.2536	1.1136	131.2	71.5	59.6

Steamer

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Mike Fiers	1.7706	1.4668	1.2611	249.8	80.8	169.0
2	Wei-Yin Chen	1.5275	1.3923	1.2612	180.1	61.6	118.5
3	Will Smith	1.3213	1.6214	1.6059	131.0	15.9	115.0
4	R.A. Dickey	1.4382	1.3435	1.0528	314.5	217.8	96.7
5	Clayton Kershaw	1.2229	1.1450	1.0234	138.2	59.3	78.8
6	Matt Cain	1.3059	1.2269	1.0395	192.9	115.3	77.6
7	Justin Verlander	1.2185	1.1500	1.0573	110.0	35.3	74.7
8	Trevor Cahill	1.4540	1.3767	1.2900	98.9	25.9	73.0
9	Clay Buchholz	1.4791	1.3987	1.3257	86.1	13.9	72.2
10	Samuel Deduno	1.3213	1.6685	1.5443	93.4	23.8	69.6

ZiPS

Rank	Player	Proj	Agg	Actual	Error	Agg Err	Unique
1	Lucas Harrell	1.6212	1.5035	1.3580	180.9	74.2	106.6
2	Jeremy Guthrie	1.2472	1.3543	1.4092	162.7	87.2	75.5
3	Scott Diamond	1.7177	1.6353	1.2428	307.4	240.5	66.9
4	Josh Johnson	1.1111	1.1938	1.2805	170.7	113.7	57.0
5	Adam Ottavino	1.6228	1.4857	1.3924	63.0	12.7	50.3
6	Tom Wilhelmsen	1.6356	1.5016	1.1092	157.1	109.7	47.4
7	Nate Jones	1.8555	1.7128	1.3814	129.3	83.0	46.4
8	Craig Stammen	1.4370	1.3259	1.2000	71.2	26.0	45.3
9	Wade Miley	1.5845	1.5401	1.1815	289.3	244.4	44.9
10	Ricky Romero	1.2791	1.3418	1.6740	364.3	321.6	42.6