2019 Fantasy Projection Evaluation

Fantasy-relevant accuracy for 2019, excluding batters with fewer than 300 PA and pitchers with fewer than 200 BF. Limited to 5x5 categories, with playing time (PA/BF) split out from rates.

Summary

Batting

System PA HR SB R RBI AVG
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Pitching

System BF SO W SV ERA WHIP
ATC
Aggregate
Depth Charts
Marcel
OOPSY
Razzball
Steamer
The BAT
The BAT X
ZiPS

Batting Projection Accuracy

Plate Appearances (PA)

Individual Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Leury García 249 618 369.4
2 Danny Santana 172 511 339.0
3 Bryan Reynolds 218 546 328.1
4 Eric Sogard 148 442 294.5
5 Hanser Alberto 265 550 284.9
6 Christian Walker 326 603 276.9
7 Gio Urshela 201 476 275.0
8 Brian Goodwin 188 458 269.5
9 Christian Vázquez 253 521 268.1
10 Carlos Correa 563 321 241.6

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Pete Alonso 100 693 593.0
2 Bryan Reynolds 100 546 446.0
3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 100 514 414.0
4 Eloy Jiménez 100 504 404.0
5 Óscar Mercado 100 482 382.0
6 Christian Walker 229 603 374.0
7 Victor Robles 246 617 371.0
8 Harold Ramírez 100 446 346.0
9 Jorge Soler 344 679 335.0
10 Hanser Alberto 218 550 332.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Bryan Reynolds 7 546 539.3
2 Danny Santana 1 511 510.0
3 Gio Urshela 1 476 475.0
4 Leury García 157 618 460.7
5 Brian Goodwin 1 458 457.0
6 Christian Walker 151 603 451.8
7 Harold Ramírez 1 446 445.0
8 Eric Sogard 1 442 441.0
9 Hanser Alberto 112 550 437.8
10 Óscar Mercado 47 482 435.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Jorge Soler 353 679 326.0
2 Leury García 340 618 278.0
3 Willie Calhoun 589 337 252.0
4 José Peraza 642 403 239.0
5 Carlos Correa 559 321 238.0
6 Didi Gregorius 580 344 236.0
7 Roberto Pérez 217 449 232.0
8 Brandon Lowe 555 327 228.0
9 Garrett Hampson 552 327 225.0
10 Jeimer Candelario 609 386 223.0

Most Unique Misses for Plate Appearances (PA)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Pete Alonso 100 514 693 593.0 179.5 413.5
2 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 100 515 514 414.0 0.9 413.1
3 Eloy Jiménez 100 553 504 404.0 49.4 354.6
4 Victor Robles 246 536 617 371.0 81.1 289.9
5 Nick Senzel 100 373 414 314.0 41.0 273.0
6 Jeff McNeil 328 545 567 239.0 22.1 216.9
7 Luis Rengifo 100 310 406 306.0 95.6 210.4
8 Ryan McMahon 311 513 539 228.0 26.2 201.8
9 Óscar Mercado 100 295 482 382.0 186.6 195.4
10 Franmil Reyes 353 553 548 195.0 4.5 190.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Luis Rengifo 20 310 406 386.3 95.6 290.6
2 Nicky Lopez 1 284 402 401.0 118.0 283.0
3 Tommy Edman 1 270 349 348.0 78.5 269.5
4 Cavan Biggio 1 266 430 429.0 164.5 264.5
5 Keston Hiura 20 277 348 327.9 70.9 256.9
6 Harold Ramírez 1 256 446 445.0 190.0 255.0
7 Óscar Mercado 47 295 482 435.1 186.6 248.5
8 Luis Arraez 7 250 366 359.4 116.2 243.2
9 Rowdy Tellez 55 294 409 353.7 115.4 238.4
10 Mike Yastrzemski 1 235 411 410.0 176.0 234.0

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Willie Calhoun 589 407 337 252.0 70.4 181.6
2 Didi Gregorius 580 412 344 236.0 68.4 167.6
3 Derek Dietrich 511 356 306 205.0 50.1 154.9
4 Ben Gamel 530 320 356 174.0 35.8 138.2
5 Alex Verdugo 519 388 377 142.0 10.6 131.4
6 Rio Ruiz 564 441 413 151.0 28.1 122.9
7 Keston Hiura 534 277 348 186.0 70.9 115.1
8 Yandy Díaz 560 445 347 213.0 97.9 115.1
9 Brandon Lowe 555 441 327 228.0 114.1 113.9
10 Tommy Edman 540 270 349 191.0 78.5 112.5

Home Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Home Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
George Springer 0.1054
0.0597
(18.5)
0.0593
(19.9)
0.0620
(17.2)
0.0574
(19.9)
Mitch Garver 0.1372
0.0346
(32.4)
0.0352
(32.9)
0.0384
(31.0)
0.0308
(33.8)
Yolmer Sánchez 0.0051
0.0261
(18.5)
0.0264
(17.5)
0.0266
(18.8)
0.0255
(18.1)
Josh Bell 0.0889
0.0424
(21.0)
0.0436
(21.5)
0.0447
(19.5)
0.0402
(22.4)
Ketel Marte 0.0660
0.0252
(17.9)
0.0254
(19.0)
0.0262
(17.1)
0.0242
(18.6)
Pete Alonso 0.1271
0.0745
(27.9)
0.0598
(39.5)
0.0763
(26.5)
0.0727
(29.3)
Miguel Cabrera 0.0308
0.0533
(19.2)
0.0533
(18.0)
0.0577
(21.7)
0.0490
(16.7)
Khris Davis 0.0682
0.1048
(26.0)
0.1038
(24.4)
0.1021
(24.7)
0.1074
(27.4)
Yordan Alvarez 0.1222
0.0591
(18.7)
0.0598
(19.2)
0.0556
(19.9)
0.0625
(17.5)
Jorge Soler 0.1148
0.0649
(25.5)
0.0553
(33.4)
0.0654
(25.1)
0.0644
(26.0)
Eugenio Suárez 0.1250
0.0720
(26.9)
0.0678
(31.1)
0.0690
(28.8)
0.0750
(25.1)
Christian Yelich 0.1176
0.0619
(25.2)
0.0564
(29.6)
0.0618
(25.1)
0.0619
(25.3)

Individual Misses for Home Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Rhys Hoskins 0.0871 0.0716 19.6
2 Miguel Sanó 0.0982 0.1532 18.7
3 Danny Santana 0.0376 0.0851 18.0
4 Roberto Pérez 0.0376 0.0879 17.0
5 Keston Hiura 0.0302 0.0913 17.0
6 Christin Stewart 0.0651 0.0368 16.9
7 Randal Grichuk 0.0874 0.0729 16.9
8 Tommy Pham 0.0596 0.0472 16.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nicky Lopez 0.0598 0.0060 25.8
2 Miguel Sanó 0.0848 0.1532 25.5
3 Danny Santana 0.0307 0.0851 22.6
4 Daniel Vogelbach 0.0476 0.0952 20.8
5 Luis Arraez 0.0598 0.0133 20.8
6 Kole Calhoun 0.0436 0.0840 19.0
7 Luis Rengifo 0.0598 0.0261 17.9
8 Mike Trout 0.0875 0.1271 17.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Miguel Sanó 0.0913 0.1532 21.7
2 Rhys Hoskins 0.0883 0.0716 20.6
3 Danny Santana 0.0332 0.0851 20.1
4 Keston Hiura 0.0279 0.0913 17.7
5 Christin Stewart 0.0653 0.0368 17.1
6 Joey Votto 0.0517 0.0370 16.5
7 Austin Meadows 0.0423 0.0827 16.5
8 Wilson Ramos 0.0528 0.0344 16.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Roberto Pérez 0.0320 0.0879 19.6
2 Tommy Pham 0.0637 0.0472 18.7
3 Rhys Hoskins 0.0859 0.0716 18.6
4 Randal Grichuk 0.0903 0.0729 18.6
5 Jesús Aguilar 0.0828 0.0494 16.8
6 Christin Stewart 0.0650 0.0368 16.8
7 Yasiel Puig 0.0714 0.0563 16.6
8 Brett Gardner 0.0303 0.0725 16.5

Most Unique Misses for Home Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Nicky Lopez 0.0598 0.0134 0.0060 25.8 7.9 17.8
2 Luis Arraez 0.0598 0.0107 0.0133 20.8 3.5 17.2
3 Harold Ramírez 0.0598 0.0199 0.0331 16.5 0.4 16.1
4 Luis Rengifo 0.0598 0.0188 0.0261 17.9 2.0 15.8
5 Richie Martin Jr. 0.0598 0.0155 0.0291 12.7 0.4 12.3
6 Bryan Reynolds 0.0598 0.0251 0.0429 14.8 3.0 11.9
7 Pete Alonso 0.0598 0.0745 0.1271 39.5 27.9 11.6
8 Harold Castro 0.0414 0.0091 0.0182 12.3 1.2 11.2
9 Victor Robles 0.0465 0.0285 0.0408 9.9 0.0 9.9
10 Mike Trout 0.0875 0.1014 0.1271 17.6 8.0 9.6

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Max Muncy 0.0687 0.0778 0.1023 12.4 7.2 5.2
2 José Abreu 0.0634 0.0577 0.0671 6.1 2.1 4.0
3 Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.0655 0.0711 0.0928 10.5 6.6 3.9
4 Albert Pujols 0.0501 0.0443 0.0534 5.0 1.8 3.3
5 Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.0459 0.0548 0.0969 14.3 11.1 3.3
6 Gleyber Torres 0.0593 0.0644 0.0896 10.8 7.8 3.0
7 Miguel Sanó 0.0913 0.0982 0.1532 21.7 18.7 2.9
8 Anthony Rizzo 0.0652 0.0606 0.0629 9.0 6.1 2.9
9 Eduardo Escobar 0.0412 0.0454 0.0678 9.9 7.1 2.8
10 Eloy Jiménez 0.0591 0.0647 0.0923 10.4 7.6 2.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Domingo Santana 0.0870 0.0736 0.0722 13.7 7.0 6.7
2 Juan Soto 0.0837 0.0753 0.0817 9.3 3.9 5.4
3 David Dahl 0.0811 0.0686 0.0554 15.6 10.6 5.1
4 Eric Thames 0.0996 0.0911 0.0969 6.8 3.0 3.8
5 Trevor Story 0.0887 0.0836 0.0839 11.1 7.9 3.3
6 Carlos Santana 0.0482 0.0525 0.0728 8.5 5.5 3.1
7 J.T. Realmuto 0.0631 0.0578 0.0590 9.7 6.6 3.1
8 Rafael Devers 0.0689 0.0647 0.0603 14.6 11.7 2.8
9 Matt Chapman 0.0780 0.0736 0.0820 5.5 2.6 2.8
10 Marcell Ozuna 0.0515 0.0564 0.0780 7.8 5.0 2.8

Stolen Base Rate

Everybody Missed for Stolen Base Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Manuel Margot 0.2020
0.1265
(37.7)
0.1092
(43.9)
0.1298
(35.1)
0.1231
(40.4)
Mookie Betts 0.0792
0.1494
(42.5)
0.1419
(39.4)
0.1387
(36.8)
0.1602
(48.2)
Mallex Smith 0.3407
0.2533
(55.2)
0.2101
(77.8)
0.2369
(62.9)
0.2701
(47.2)
Ian Desmond 0.0319
0.1273
(41.2)
0.1221
(40.2)
0.1213
(39.6)
0.1333
(42.8)
Marcell Ozuna 0.0945
0.0136
(49.9)
0.0134
(48.3)
0.0144
(48.0)
0.0127
(51.8)
Whit Merrifield 0.1058
0.1969
(59.6)
0.1887
(55.9)
0.1854
(53.1)
0.2083
(66.0)
Kolten Wong 0.1538
0.0673
(53.0)
0.0588
(55.9)
0.0638
(53.4)
0.0708
(52.6)
Elvis Andrus 0.1938
0.0928
(71.9)
0.1102
(58.6)
0.0901
(71.9)
0.0956
(71.8)
Christian Yelich 0.1734
0.0930
(52.4)
0.0843
(55.6)
0.0831
(56.6)
0.1033
(48.0)

Individual Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Luis Rengifo 0.1758 0.0196 59.4
2 Adalberto Mondesi 0.3874 0.4831 46.8
3 Jorge Polanco 0.0906 0.0221 41.2
4 Kevin Kiermaier 0.1396 0.2065 36.9
5 José Ramírez 0.1479 0.2034 35.5
6 Paul DeJong 0.0177 0.0604 35.0
7 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0390 0.0798 33.5
8 Jose Altuve 0.1123 0.0455 31.2
9 Charlie Blackmon 0.0721 0.0133 31.0
10 Jean Segura 0.1285 0.0685 30.9

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adalberto Mondesi 0.3200 0.4831 75.3
2 Victor Robles 0.0877 0.1918 68.4
3 Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.1053 0.1897 65.3
4 Óscar Mercado 0.0540 0.1389 44.2
5 Tommy Edman 0.0540 0.1724 43.7
6 Garrett Hampson 0.0690 0.1948 43.4
7 Nick Senzel 0.0540 0.1505 42.8
8 Kevin Newman 0.0339 0.1074 42.7
9 Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.0540 0.1600 42.0
10 José Ramírez 0.1392 0.2034 38.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adalberto Mondesi 0.3478 0.4831 63.2
2 Luis Rengifo 0.1632 0.0196 55.3
3 Jorge Polanco 0.0969 0.0221 47.5
4 José Ramírez 0.1348 0.2034 41.1
5 Kevin Kiermaier 0.1318 0.2065 39.4
6 Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.1481 0.1897 35.0
7 Charlie Blackmon 0.0741 0.0133 33.9
8 Paul DeJong 0.0185 0.0604 32.7
9 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0391 0.0798 31.7
10 Tommy Pham 0.0980 0.1351 29.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Luis Rengifo 0.1888 0.0196 63.5
2 Jonathan Villar 0.2932 0.2235 40.8
3 Jose Altuve 0.1290 0.0455 38.9
4 Paul DeJong 0.0168 0.0604 37.4
5 Shin-Soo Choo 0.0390 0.0798 35.3
6 Jorge Polanco 0.0840 0.0221 34.7
7 Kevin Kiermaier 0.1474 0.2065 34.5
8 Austin Meadows 0.1531 0.0822 34.4
9 Óscar Mercado 0.2197 0.1389 32.8
10 Jean Segura 0.1341 0.0685 32.7

Most Unique Misses for Stolen Base Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Victor Robles 0.0877 0.2035 0.1918 68.4 1.1 67.4
2 Garrett Hampson 0.0690 0.1917 0.1948 43.4 4.3 39.1
3 Kevin Newman 0.0339 0.1241 0.1074 42.7 3.6 39.1
4 Ronald Acuña Jr. 0.1053 0.1589 0.1897 65.3 29.2 36.2
5 Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.0540 0.1405 0.1600 42.0 11.0 31.0
6 Adalberto Mondesi 0.3200 0.3874 0.4831 75.3 46.8 28.5
7 Pete Alonso 0.0540 0.0138 0.0061 28.4 1.6 26.8
8 Eloy Jiménez 0.0540 0.0086 0.0000 23.8 0.7 23.1
9 Mallex Smith 0.2101 0.2533 0.3407 77.8 55.2 22.6
10 Tommy Edman 0.0540 0.1188 0.1724 43.7 22.2 21.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Adalberto Mondesi 0.3478 0.3874 0.4831 63.2 46.8 16.3
2 Jarrod Dyson 0.2126 0.2510 0.2479 19.3 3.1 16.1
3 Victor Robles 0.1836 0.2035 0.1918 9.5 1.1 8.5
4 Mallex Smith 0.2369 0.2533 0.3407 62.9 55.2 7.8
5 Adam Frazier 0.0663 0.0569 0.0327 16.0 8.7 7.3
6 Trevor Story 0.1329 0.1460 0.1437 11.9 5.1 6.8
7 Garrett Hampson 0.1691 0.1917 0.1948 10.8 4.3 6.5
8 Wil Myers 0.1228 0.1385 0.1379 11.0 4.6 6.4
9 Trea Turner 0.2330 0.2469 0.2500 13.8 7.4 6.4
10 Jorge Polanco 0.0969 0.0906 0.0221 47.5 41.2 6.3

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Jonathan Villar 0.2932 0.2536 0.2235 40.8 14.4 26.4
2 Leury García 0.1646 0.1428 0.1000 32.1 20.3 11.7
3 Victor Robles 0.2240 0.2035 0.1918 12.1 1.1 11.0
4 Jarrod Dyson 0.2895 0.2510 0.2479 13.0 3.1 9.9
5 Billy Hamilton 0.3333 0.3054 0.2588 21.8 12.9 8.9
6 Austin Meadows 0.1531 0.1361 0.0822 34.4 26.0 8.4
7 Hanser Alberto 0.0111 0.0236 0.0276 16.0 7.7 8.4
8 Jose Altuve 0.1290 0.1123 0.0455 38.9 31.2 7.7
9 Eduardo Escobar 0.0167 0.0243 0.0333 20.5 13.2 7.3
10 Mike Trout 0.1225 0.1080 0.0582 31.0 23.9 7.1

Run Rate

Everybody Missed for Run Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Leury García 0.1505
0.1025
(22.1)
0.1102
(20.0)
0.1021
(21.7)
0.1029
(22.5)
Anthony Rendon 0.1811
0.1344
(22.2)
0.1377
(23.0)
0.1349
(21.2)
0.1340
(23.2)
Trey Mancini 0.1561
0.1139
(20.4)
0.1113
(25.1)
0.1150
(18.8)
0.1127
(21.9)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.1012
0.1360
(24.2)
0.1327
(20.2)
0.1368
(25.2)
0.1351
(23.2)
Marcus Semien 0.1647
0.1201
(24.1)
0.1254
(23.5)
0.1185
(24.5)
0.1217
(23.7)
Miguel Cabrera 0.0747
0.1178
(30.4)
0.1142
(26.0)
0.1302
(37.8)
0.1054
(23.0)
Rafael Devers 0.1838
0.1300
(29.1)
0.1235
(36.8)
0.1286
(29.4)
0.1313
(28.9)
Mitch Garver 0.1950
0.1093
(26.3)
0.1147
(26.0)
0.1106
(25.5)
0.1080
(27.2)

Individual Misses for Run Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Andrew Benintendi 0.1466 0.1171 25.7
2 Tommy Pham 0.1423 0.1177 24.1
3 Christin Stewart 0.1222 0.0769 23.9
4 Rhys Hoskins 0.1420 0.1220 22.8
5 José Ramírez 0.1533 0.1255 21.7
6 Tommy Edman 0.0983 0.1691 20.4
7 Bryan Reynolds 0.1029 0.1520 20.1
8 Cody Bellinger 0.1406 0.1831 19.9
9 Matt Carpenter 0.1469 0.1199 19.3
10 Gio Urshela 0.1023 0.1534 18.4

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tommy Pham 0.1645 0.1177 35.7
2 Jorge Polanco 0.1098 0.1520 24.2
3 Cody Bellinger 0.1395 0.1831 23.6
4 Dee Strange-Gordon 0.1321 0.0855 22.9
5 Gleyber Torres 0.1135 0.1589 22.7
6 Jonathan Villar 0.1171 0.1555 21.8
7 Delino DeShields 0.1457 0.1029 20.7
8 Max Kepler 0.1224 0.1644 20.4
9 Trevor Story 0.1320 0.1692 19.3
10 Alex Bregman 0.1413 0.1768 19.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Andrew Benintendi 0.1504 0.1171 28.7
2 Christin Stewart 0.1245 0.0769 25.3
3 DJ LeMahieu 0.1156 0.1664 24.6
4 Cody Bellinger 0.1338 0.1831 23.8
5 Bryan Reynolds 0.0963 0.1520 23.2
6 Rhys Hoskins 0.1398 0.1220 22.0
7 Tommy Edman 0.0929 0.1691 21.9
8 Mike Yastrzemski 0.0932 0.1557 20.2
9 C.J. Cron 0.1289 0.1022 20.0
10 Max Muncy 0.1243 0.1715 19.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tommy Pham 0.1566 0.1177 32.7
2 José Ramírez 0.1593 0.1255 24.4
3 Rhys Hoskins 0.1442 0.1220 23.6
4 Jorge Polanco 0.1078 0.1520 23.2
5 Delino DeShields 0.1483 0.1029 23.1
6 Andrew Benintendi 0.1429 0.1171 22.7
7 Christin Stewart 0.1199 0.0769 22.6
8 Jonathan Villar 0.1133 0.1555 22.1
9 Gio Urshela 0.0973 0.1534 21.4
10 Matt Carpenter 0.1508 0.1199 20.7

Most Unique Misses for Run Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tommy Pham 0.1645 0.1423 0.1177 35.7 24.1 11.6
2 Daniel Vogelbach 0.1012 0.1213 0.1308 12.2 1.5 10.7
3 Richie Martin Jr. 0.1327 0.0938 0.0939 14.4 3.8 10.6
4 Nicky Lopez 0.1327 0.1024 0.1095 12.5 2.1 10.4
5 Harold Castro 0.1196 0.0871 0.0813 17.0 6.7 10.4
6 Juan Soto 0.1432 0.1528 0.1669 10.5 1.2 9.3
7 Jorge Polanco 0.1098 0.1181 0.1520 24.2 15.2 8.9
8 Ryan McMahon 0.1029 0.1144 0.1299 10.3 1.7 8.6
9 Mike Moustakas 0.1132 0.1233 0.1370 9.3 0.8 8.5
10 Luis Rengifo 0.1327 0.1085 0.1084 13.1 5.0 8.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Albert Pujols 0.1144 0.1004 0.1009 14.6 6.4 8.2
2 Anthony Rizzo 0.1475 0.1363 0.1452 9.6 2.1 7.6
3 Miguel Cabrera 0.1302 0.1178 0.0747 37.8 30.4 7.4
4 DJ LeMahieu 0.1156 0.1273 0.1664 24.6 17.6 7.0
5 Jarrod Dyson 0.1021 0.1181 0.1438 12.8 6.1 6.7
6 Wilson Ramos 0.1110 0.1003 0.0992 13.1 7.0 6.2
7 José Abreu 0.1290 0.1220 0.1227 13.6 8.0 5.6
8 Charlie Blackmon 0.1511 0.1604 0.1767 7.7 2.5 5.2
9 Joey Votto 0.1383 0.1311 0.1299 13.2 8.2 5.0
10 Jason Heyward 0.1048 0.1142 0.1324 8.4 3.5 4.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tommy Pham 0.1566 0.1423 0.1177 32.7 24.1 8.6
2 Jorge Polanco 0.1078 0.1181 0.1520 23.2 15.2 8.0
3 Ozzie Albies 0.1472 0.1357 0.1453 9.2 1.8 7.4
4 Amed Rosario 0.1238 0.1116 0.1145 13.4 6.1 7.3
5 Nelson Cruz 0.1204 0.1322 0.1555 12.4 5.7 6.7
6 Carlos Santana 0.1190 0.1271 0.1603 20.7 14.4 6.3
7 Delino DeShields 0.1483 0.1321 0.1029 23.1 16.9 6.2
8 Curtis Granderson 0.1366 0.1196 0.1212 9.7 3.9 5.8
9 Nick Castellanos 0.1106 0.1180 0.1506 19.1 13.5 5.6
10 Dexter Fowler 0.1349 0.1248 0.1202 14.9 9.7 5.2

RBI Rate

Everybody Missed for RBI Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Leury García 0.0647
0.0986
(26.5)
0.1102
(34.6)
0.0943
(23.9)
0.1029
(29.1)
Anthony Rendon 0.1950
0.1416
(28.8)
0.1467
(24.5)
0.1357
(32.4)
0.1474
(25.1)
Mookie Betts 0.1133
0.1396
(24.9)
0.1385
(25.1)
0.1402
(25.4)
0.1391
(24.4)
Josh Bell 0.1892
0.1257
(33.4)
0.1232
(34.1)
0.1252
(33.7)
0.1262
(33.2)
Ketel Marte 0.1465
0.0986
(24.5)
0.0914
(28.0)
0.0987
(24.3)
0.0985
(24.6)
Joey Votto 0.0773
0.1249
(34.4)
0.1263
(36.1)
0.1243
(34.1)
0.1256
(34.7)
Eddie Rosario 0.1847
0.1345
(24.3)
0.1219
(31.0)
0.1395
(21.3)
0.1296
(27.4)
Rhys Hoskins 0.1206
0.1659
(38.3)
0.1515
(29.2)
0.1548
(30.5)
0.1771
(46.1)
Yordan Alvarez 0.2114
0.1271
(27.8)
0.1287
(26.7)
0.1225
(29.4)
0.1318
(26.1)
Jorge Soler 0.1723
0.1157
(32.3)
0.1047
(38.9)
0.1266
(24.8)
0.1048
(39.8)
Nick Castellanos 0.1099
0.1403
(26.1)
0.1354
(23.8)
0.1407
(26.5)
0.1398
(25.7)
DJ LeMahieu 0.1557
0.0974
(32.3)
0.1027
(27.9)
0.1032
(28.4)
0.0917
(36.2)

Individual Misses for RBI Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trevor Story 0.1611 0.1296 26.5
2 George Springer 0.1205 0.1727 24.0
3 Mitch Garver 0.1127 0.1866 23.3
4 Khris Davis 0.1718 0.1370 23.3
5 Josh Phegley 0.1053 0.1813 22.9
6 Gio Urshela 0.1003 0.1555 22.0
7 Eduardo Escobar 0.1287 0.1688 21.7
8 Asdrúbal Cabrera 0.1270 0.1770 21.1

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Nicky Lopez 0.1287 0.0746 25.9
2 Asdrúbal Cabrera 0.1162 0.1770 25.9
3 Danny Santana 0.0983 0.1585 25.4
4 Robinson Canó 0.1402 0.0922 24.7
5 George Springer 0.1191 0.1727 24.0
6 Renato Núñez 0.1000 0.1503 23.9
7 Pete Alonso 0.1287 0.1732 23.6
8 Luis Rengifo 0.1287 0.0813 23.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Eduardo Escobar 0.1131 0.1688 32.6
2 George Springer 0.1179 0.1727 25.4
3 Trevor Story 0.1585 0.1296 24.9
4 Mitch Garver 0.1098 0.1866 24.3
5 Asdrúbal Cabrera 0.1227 0.1770 23.3
6 Josh Phegley 0.1061 0.1813 22.6
7 Miguel Cabrera 0.1385 0.1075 22.0
8 Kurt Suzuki 0.1261 0.2039 21.2

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Trevor Story 0.1636 0.1296 28.1
2 Khris Davis 0.1794 0.1370 27.3
3 Christian Vázquez 0.0796 0.1382 25.9
4 Gio Urshela 0.0923 0.1555 25.9
5 Brett Gardner 0.0791 0.1345 25.7
6 Hunter Dozier 0.0939 0.1433 23.8
7 Howie Kendrick 0.0947 0.1676 23.7
8 Josh Phegley 0.1045 0.1813 23.2

Most Unique Misses for RBI Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Nicky Lopez 0.1287 0.0803 0.0746 25.9 5.9 20.0
2 Richie Martin Jr. 0.1287 0.0761 0.0744 20.0 3.3 16.7
3 Luis Arraez 0.1287 0.0857 0.0765 22.9 6.6 16.3
4 Luis Rengifo 0.1287 0.0900 0.0813 23.5 7.2 16.3
5 Juan Soto 0.1325 0.1579 0.1669 15.8 0.1 15.8
6 Franmil Reyes 0.1105 0.1402 0.1478 14.7 0.7 14.0
7 Renato Núñez 0.1000 0.1240 0.1503 23.9 10.4 13.5
8 Kyle Schwarber 0.1189 0.1426 0.1508 13.1 0.5 12.6
9 Rafael Devers 0.1276 0.1465 0.1638 18.1 5.9 12.3
10 Victor Robles 0.1220 0.1041 0.1053 16.7 4.7 11.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Eduardo Escobar 0.1131 0.1287 0.1688 32.6 21.7 10.8
2 Juan Soto 0.1455 0.1579 0.1669 8.1 0.1 8.0
3 David Fletcher 0.0980 0.0886 0.0750 21.0 14.7 6.3
4 Matt Adams 0.1399 0.1628 0.1682 6.4 1.2 5.2
5 Christian Yelich 0.1350 0.1440 0.1672 13.4 8.3 5.1
6 Hanser Alberto 0.1014 0.0926 0.0927 9.8 4.8 4.9
7 Corey Seager 0.1206 0.1297 0.1608 16.8 12.0 4.8
8 Nelson Cruz 0.1684 0.1777 0.2073 15.5 10.7 4.8
9 Max Muncy 0.1283 0.1365 0.1664 17.1 12.3 4.7
10 Billy Hamilton 0.0750 0.0621 0.0425 14.7 10.1 4.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Juan Soto 0.1702 0.1579 0.1669 8.0 0.1 7.9
2 Rhys Hoskins 0.1771 0.1659 0.1206 46.1 38.3 7.8
3 Gleyber Torres 0.1565 0.1437 0.1490 9.9 2.2 7.7
4 Matt Adams 0.1856 0.1628 0.1682 8.7 1.2 7.6
5 Jorge Soler 0.1048 0.1157 0.1723 39.8 32.3 7.5
6 Eugenio Suárez 0.1619 0.1516 0.1556 10.0 3.3 6.7
7 Jorge Polanco 0.1218 0.1122 0.1122 12.9 6.3 6.7
8 Jesús Aguilar 0.1806 0.1625 0.1355 19.9 13.3 6.6
9 Andrew Benintendi 0.1368 0.1264 0.1106 21.6 15.2 6.3
10 Christian Vázquez 0.0796 0.0914 0.1382 25.9 19.7 6.2

Batting Average

Everybody Missed for Batting Average

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Mallex Smith 0.2275
0.2604
(22.3)
0.2737
(27.9)
0.2624
(22.7)
0.2584
(21.8)
Tim Anderson 0.3353
0.2526
(39.5)
0.2537
(40.7)
0.2531
(39.8)
0.2520
(39.2)
Hunter Dozier 0.2792
0.2294
(25.3)
0.2363
(23.3)
0.2325
(24.3)
0.2265
(26.4)
J.D. Davis 0.3073
0.2399
(27.6)
0.2273
(34.9)
0.2409
(27.7)
0.2389
(27.5)
Bryan Reynolds 0.3136
0.2458
(33.5)
0.2644
(25.2)
0.2634
(24.5)
0.2282
(42.5)
Marcell Ozuna 0.2412
0.2832
(26.6)
0.2825
(24.3)
0.2880
(28.6)
0.2784
(24.6)
Ketel Marte 0.3286
0.2790
(27.1)
0.2579
(42.5)
0.2809
(26.7)
0.2772
(27.5)
Gio Urshela 0.3145
0.2460
(29.5)
0.2409
(33.6)
0.2486
(28.8)
0.2434
(30.2)
Rafael Devers 0.3107
0.2674
(25.8)
0.2523
(38.8)
0.2701
(24.8)
0.2648
(26.9)
Yoán Moncada 0.3151
0.2347
(41.3)
0.2380
(41.4)
0.2359
(41.3)
0.2335
(41.3)

Individual Misses for Batting Average

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 DJ LeMahieu 0.2717 0.3272 32.2
2 Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.2276 0.3174 31.0
3 Rougned Odor 0.2483 0.2050 28.9
4 Daniel Vogelbach 0.2481 0.2078 26.1
5 Eric Sogard 0.2319 0.2904 23.0
6 Cody Bellinger 0.2636 0.3047 22.9
7 José Ramírez 0.2887 0.2552 21.6
8 Howie Kendrick 0.2794 0.3443 21.6
9 Derek Dietrich 0.2511 0.1873 21.5
10 Rhys Hoskins 0.2503 0.2263 21.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Hanser Alberto 0.2347 0.3053 37.2
2 Kevin Newman 0.2402 0.3083 34.5
3 Cody Bellinger 0.2606 0.3047 27.1
4 Joey Votto 0.2989 0.2610 25.0
5 Marcus Semien 0.2486 0.2846 24.6
6 Luis Arraez 0.2644 0.3344 24.5
7 Danny Santana 0.2326 0.2827 24.0
8 Ryan O'Hearn 0.2568 0.1951 24.0
9 Lorenzo Cain 0.2945 0.2598 23.5
10 Derek Dietrich 0.2603 0.1873 23.3

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 DJ LeMahieu 0.2697 0.3272 34.2
2 Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.2337 0.3174 29.1
3 Rougned Odor 0.2480 0.2050 28.1
4 Cody Bellinger 0.2575 0.3047 27.7
5 Daniel Vogelbach 0.2478 0.2078 25.3
6 Yordan Alvarez 0.2419 0.3131 24.3
7 Jurickson Profar 0.2548 0.2179 21.9
8 Howie Kendrick 0.2808 0.3443 21.5
9 Jeff McNeil 0.2751 0.3176 21.1
10 Marcus Semien 0.2513 0.2846 20.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Fernando Tatis Jr. 0.2215 0.3174 32.8
2 DJ LeMahieu 0.2736 0.3272 30.2
3 Rougned Odor 0.2486 0.2050 29.8
4 Daniel Vogelbach 0.2483 0.2078 26.9
5 Eric Sogard 0.2261 0.2904 25.1
6 José Ramírez 0.2930 0.2552 24.6
7 Carlos Santana 0.2391 0.2810 23.5
8 Derek Dietrich 0.2544 0.1873 22.9
9 Rhys Hoskins 0.2509 0.2263 22.7
10 Joey Votto 0.2905 0.2610 22.6

Most Unique Misses for Batting Average

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Hanser Alberto 0.2347 0.2689 0.3053 37.2 16.5 20.7
2 Ketel Marte 0.2579 0.2790 0.3286 42.5 27.1 15.4
3 Kevin Newman 0.2402 0.2642 0.3083 34.5 20.0 14.6
4 Rafael Devers 0.2523 0.2674 0.3107 38.8 25.8 13.0
5 Alex Verdugo 0.2500 0.2723 0.2945 15.6 5.9 9.7
6 Willy Adames 0.2681 0.2473 0.2542 9.9 0.3 9.6
7 Matt Chapman 0.2612 0.2438 0.2487 10.4 1.0 9.4
8 Danny Santana 0.2326 0.2473 0.2827 24.0 14.8 9.3
9 Amed Rosario 0.2541 0.2641 0.2873 19.8 11.0 8.8
10 Paul Goldschmidt 0.2893 0.2734 0.2596 22.3 13.8 8.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Eduardo Escobar 0.2516 0.2597 0.2689 8.4 1.9 6.5
2 Cody Bellinger 0.2575 0.2636 0.3047 27.7 22.9 4.8
3 Charlie Blackmon 0.2869 0.2927 0.3138 13.7 9.3 4.4
4 Victor Robles 0.2740 0.2659 0.2546 15.2 11.0 4.3
5 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0.3060 0.2970 0.2716 20.4 16.4 4.0
6 Martín Maldonado 0.2326 0.2212 0.2132 9.2 5.4 3.8
7 Eugenio Suárez 0.2566 0.2609 0.2713 6.3 2.6 3.6
8 Nick Ahmed 0.2371 0.2416 0.2536 7.0 3.5 3.6
9 Elvis Andrus 0.2636 0.2678 0.2750 4.0 0.5 3.5
10 Christian Walker 0.2388 0.2433 0.2590 9.0 5.6 3.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Bryan Reynolds 0.2282 0.2458 0.3136 42.5 33.5 9.0
2 David Fletcher 0.2538 0.2632 0.2903 18.8 13.5 5.3
3 Bryce Harper 0.2713 0.2656 0.2600 12.9 8.2 4.7
4 Joey Votto 0.2905 0.2840 0.2610 22.6 18.0 4.7
5 Cavan Biggio 0.1991 0.2110 0.2345 11.9 7.3 4.6
6 Roberto Pérez 0.1902 0.2015 0.2391 18.5 13.9 4.6
7 Adam Eaton 0.2942 0.2886 0.2792 14.9 10.4 4.5
8 Freddie Freeman 0.2971 0.2921 0.2948 6.9 2.6 4.3
9 Harold Ramírez 0.2379 0.2482 0.2755 13.4 9.3 4.1
10 Nelson Cruz 0.2658 0.2744 0.3106 19.3 15.5 3.8

Pitching Projection Accuracy

Batters Faced (BF)

Everybody Missed for Batters Faced (BF)

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Carlos Martinez 200
676
(476.4)
564
(364.0)
617
(416.8)
736
(536.0)
Carlos Carrasco 341
744
(402.5)
710
(369.0)
737
(396.0)
750
(409.0)
Zach Plesac 475
4
(470.6)
100
(375.0)
4
(470.6)
100
(375.0)

Individual Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Tyler Glasnow 623 230 392.9
2 Brett Anderson 354 743 389.1
3 Homer Bailey 311 696 384.6
4 Michael Soroka 334 701 366.5
5 Corbin Burnes 588 235 352.5
6 Matt Harvey 618 266 352.3
7 Clayton Richard 547 201 345.8
8 Kyle Freeland 815 473 342.0
9 Sean Newcomb 618 293 324.7
10 Max Fried 384 702 318.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Merrill Kelly 100 777 677.0
2 Yusei Kikuchi 100 721 621.0
3 Dakota Hudson 169 757 588.0
4 Trent Thornton 100 677 577.0
5 Sandy Alcantara 271 838 567.0
6 John Means 116 637 521.0
7 Chris Paddack 100 568 468.0
8 Clayton Richard 651 201 450.0
9 Max Fried 255 702 447.0
10 Spencer Turnbull 256 656 400.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Merrill Kelly 100 777 677.0
2 John Means 41 637 596.4
3 Adrian Sampson 4 563 558.6
4 Brett Anderson 257 743 486.1
5 Tyler Beede 41 523 482.2
6 Michael Soroka 235 701 466.0
7 Max Fried 258 702 444.0
8 Aaron Brooks 41 482 441.5
9 Trent Thornton 248 677 428.8
10 Glenn Sparkman 182 606 423.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Homer Bailey 100 696 596.0
2 Tyler Glasnow 671 230 441.0
3 Jefry Rodriguez 616 203 413.0
4 Clayton Richard 592 201 391.0
5 Ranger Suarez 587 205 382.0
6 Tyler Alexander 615 235 380.0
7 Sean Newcomb 672 293 379.0
8 Dan Straily 607 236 371.0
9 Matt Wisler 585 224 361.0
10 Kolby Allard 567 208 359.0

Most Unique Misses for Batters Faced (BF)

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Merrill Kelly 100 753 777 677.0 24.0 653.0
2 Yusei Kikuchi 100 618 721 621.0 102.9 518.1
3 Dakota Hudson 169 625 757 588.0 131.9 456.1
4 Chris Paddack 100 467 568 468.0 101.0 367.0
5 Sandy Alcantara 271 614 838 567.0 223.5 343.5
6 Cal Quantrill 100 414 443 343.0 29.1 313.9
7 Spencer Turnbull 256 563 656 400.0 93.0 307.0
8 Trent Thornton 100 397 677 577.0 280.4 296.6
9 Dan Straily 583 306 236 347.0 69.7 277.3
10 Drew Smyly 254 518 514 260.0 4.2 255.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Merrill Kelly 100 753 777 677.0 24.0 653.0
2 Peter Lambert 4 312 420 415.6 108.3 307.3
3 John Means 41 344 637 596.4 293.2 303.2
4 Shaun Anderson 4 292 427 422.7 135.4 287.4
5 Adrian Sampson 4 289 563 558.6 274.3 284.3
6 Zac Gallen 40 322 334 293.9 11.9 281.9
7 Taylor Clarke 40 320 369 328.8 49.4 279.4
8 Alex Young 4 277 349 344.6 72.3 272.3
9 Griffin Canning 4 258 384 379.7 125.8 253.8
10 Nestor Cortes 4 251 298 293.7 46.8 246.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Tyler Alexander 615 310 235 380.0 74.7 305.3
2 Dan Straily 607 306 236 371.0 69.7 301.3
3 Jefry Rodriguez 616 330 203 413.0 126.9 286.1
4 Ranger Suarez 587 313 205 382.0 108.5 273.5
5 Aaron Civale 527 266 227 300.0 38.7 261.3
6 Zac Gallen 604 322 334 270.0 11.9 258.1
7 Luis Perdomo 579 321 296 283.0 25.3 257.7
8 Gio Gonzalez 703 453 366 337.0 86.9 250.1
9 Kolby Allard 567 324 208 359.0 116.0 243.0
10 Devin Smeltzer 480 242 202 278.0 40.2 237.8

Strikeout Rate

Everybody Missed for Strikeout Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Lucas Giolito 0.3234
0.1705
(92.9)
0.1798
(94.4)
0.1775
(91.1)
0.1635
(95.7)
Matthew Boyd 0.3020
0.1988
(64.7)
0.2109
(64.1)
0.2019
(65.7)
0.1957
(64.7)
Shane Bieber 0.3015
0.2058
(64.1)
0.2312
(52.0)
0.2151
(59.9)
0.1965
(69.4)
Lance Lynn 0.2811
0.1991
(53.3)
0.2162
(48.3)
0.2081
(49.3)
0.1900
(58.5)
Antonio Senzatela 0.1306
0.1860
(44.6)
0.1921
(41.5)
0.1866
(42.3)
0.1854
(46.0)
Mike Clevinger 0.3387
0.2394
(39.0)
0.2475
(40.6)
0.2494
(36.2)
0.2295
(42.4)
Sonny Gray 0.2895
0.2207
(33.8)
0.2132
(47.1)
0.2227
(35.5)
0.2187
(33.0)
Yusei Kikuchi 0.1609
0.2157
(54.8)
0.2341
(59.8)
0.2222
(56.3)
0.2093
(52.3)
Brett Anderson 0.1211
0.1445
(33.1)
0.1759
(48.0)
0.1471
(31.7)
0.1419
(33.4)
Gerrit Cole 0.3990
0.2822
(78.2)
0.2721
(95.7)
0.2886
(76.5)
0.2759
(80.8)

Individual Misses for Strikeout Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Masahiro Tanaka 0.2297 0.1963 41.4
2 Brandon Workman 0.2062 0.3636 39.0
3 Aníbal Sánchez 0.2204 0.1882 38.0
4 Iván Nova 0.1652 0.1414 36.2
5 Drew Pomeranz 0.2006 0.3011 36.1
6 Justin Verlander 0.2937 0.3542 33.4
7 Homer Bailey 0.1453 0.2141 33.2
8 Rick Porcello 0.2077 0.1862 32.7
9 Erick Fedde 0.1980 0.1228 32.2
10 Nick Anderson 0.2774 0.4167 31.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Justin Verlander 0.2892 0.3542 46.8
2 Nick Anderson 0.2341 0.4167 45.6
3 Peter Lambert 0.2341 0.1357 45.4
4 Marco Gonzales 0.2097 0.1697 43.0
5 Glenn Sparkman 0.1947 0.1337 42.9
6 Liam Hendriks 0.2374 0.3735 41.9
7 Iván Nova 0.1810 0.1414 39.8
8 Sandy Alcantara 0.2177 0.1802 39.6
9 Josh Hader 0.3310 0.4775 39.5
10 Gabriel Ynoa 0.2120 0.1396 39.4

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Drew Pomeranz 0.1951 0.3011 40.6
2 Masahiro Tanaka 0.2316 0.1963 39.5
3 Brandon Workman 0.2101 0.3636 39.1
4 Merrill Kelly 0.2341 0.2033 36.9
5 Homer Bailey 0.1453 0.2141 36.2
6 Aníbal Sánchez 0.2197 0.1882 34.3
7 Liam Hendriks 0.2550 0.3735 33.8
8 Erick Fedde 0.2052 0.1228 33.1
9 Jake Odorizzi 0.2035 0.2705 33.1
10 Nick Anderson 0.2808 0.4167 31.5

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Masahiro Tanaka 0.2278 0.1963 42.3
2 Iván Nova 0.1684 0.1414 41.2
3 Aníbal Sánchez 0.2212 0.1882 40.7
4 Justin Verlander 0.2825 0.3542 40.2
5 Brandon Workman 0.2022 0.3636 39.2
6 Mike Fiers 0.1900 0.1671 35.5
7 Rick Porcello 0.2076 0.1862 35.1
8 Zach Plesac 0.2341 0.1853 34.7
9 Yoan López 0.2867 0.1707 34.5
10 Drew Pomeranz 0.2062 0.3011 32.2

Most Unique Misses for Strikeout Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Peter Lambert 0.2341 0.1510 0.1357 45.4 15.3 30.1
2 Sandy Alcantara 0.2177 0.1712 0.1802 39.6 10.2 29.5
3 Dario Agrazal 0.2341 0.1311 0.1277 37.3 7.9 29.4
4 Merrill Kelly 0.2341 0.1873 0.2033 31.4 3.9 27.5
5 Dakota Hudson 0.2071 0.1574 0.1797 28.2 0.9 27.3
6 Aaron Brooks 0.2143 0.1485 0.1701 26.0 0.2 25.8
7 Zach Plesac 0.2341 0.1592 0.1853 27.8 2.3 25.5
8 Gabriel Ynoa 0.2120 0.1517 0.1396 39.4 16.0 23.5
9 Glenn Sparkman 0.1947 0.1455 0.1337 42.9 20.0 22.9
10 Colin Poche 0.2341 0.3245 0.3478 21.5 0.5 21.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Merrill Kelly 0.2341 0.1873 0.2033 36.9 3.9 32.9
2 Trent Thornton 0.2209 0.1985 0.2201 11.9 0.3 11.6
3 Clayton Kershaw 0.2340 0.2460 0.2677 12.0 0.4 11.6
4 Stephen Strasburg 0.2572 0.2647 0.2985 20.6 10.6 10.0
5 Gabriel Ynoa 0.1756 0.1517 0.1396 25.3 16.0 9.3
6 Patrick Corbin 0.2428 0.2484 0.2850 21.3 13.0 8.3
7 Josh Hader 0.3676 0.3894 0.4775 26.9 19.4 7.6
8 Aaron Brooks 0.1381 0.1485 0.1701 7.4 0.2 7.1
9 Steven Brault 0.2251 0.2067 0.1980 22.1 15.0 7.1
10 Junior Guerra 0.2526 0.2280 0.2238 15.6 8.7 6.9

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Zach Plesac 0.2341 0.1592 0.1853 34.7 2.3 32.4
2 Nick Margevicius 0.2341 0.1751 0.1597 25.9 9.6 16.3
3 Trent Thornton 0.1761 0.1985 0.2201 13.3 0.3 13.1
4 Clayton Kershaw 0.2580 0.2460 0.2677 10.2 0.4 9.8
5 Chris Sale 0.3049 0.3232 0.3562 16.6 7.2 9.3
6 Freddy Peralta 0.3058 0.2861 0.3010 11.1 2.4 8.7
7 Mike Minor 0.1891 0.2023 0.2317 15.9 7.2 8.7
8 Brad Peacock 0.2889 0.2722 0.2507 23.9 16.3 7.6
9 Matt Strahm 0.2676 0.2553 0.2423 24.1 16.6 7.5
10 Jacob deGrom 0.2784 0.2901 0.3172 11.7 4.8 6.9

Win Rate

Everybody Missed for Win Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Marco Gonzales 0.4706
0.3379
(121.8)
0.2381
(151.1)
0.3291
(124.8)
0.3462
(126.8)
Lucas Giolito 0.4828
0.2817
(147.3)
0.2143
(148.4)
0.2628
(157.0)
0.3000
(144.3)
Justin Verlander 0.6176
0.4818
(121.7)
0.3250
(198.7)
0.4634
(132.9)
0.5000
(118.3)
Jordan Lyles 0.4286
0.1315
(182.7)
0.0769
(175.9)
0.1706
(156.1)
0.1026
(208.4)
Domingo Germán 0.6667
0.1838
(291.5)
0.0909
(307.5)
0.1731
(294.8)
0.2000
(290.2)
Eduardo Rodriguez 0.5588
0.3695
(169.4)
0.2432
(221.2)
0.3967
(141.6)
0.3448
(202.7)
Jake Odorizzi 0.5000
0.3072
(132.0)
0.2000
(159.2)
0.3151
(123.5)
0.3000
(146.1)
Lance Lynn 0.4848
0.3453
(129.0)
0.2250
(176.6)
0.3327
(135.5)
0.3571
(131.0)
Dakota Hudson 0.4848
0.2192
(207.0)
0.1304
(224.4)
0.1899
(225.3)
0.2500
(194.4)
Max Fried 0.5152
0.1951
(230.2)
0.1111
(242.9)
0.1656
(247.3)
0.2414
(207.6)
Gerrit Cole 0.6061
0.4299
(150.4)
0.2927
(208.6)
0.4405
(137.5)
0.4194
(170.5)

Individual Misses for Win Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Chris Sale 0.5194 0.2400 166.1
2 Adam Wainwright 0.2459 0.4516 159.1
3 Yu Darvish 0.4017 0.1935 146.4
4 Frankie Montas 0.2452 0.5625 128.1
5 Brandon Woodruff 0.2485 0.5000 127.9
6 Mike Clevinger 0.3807 0.6190 122.9
7 Jordan Zimmermann 0.2881 0.0435 119.3
8 Kevin Gausman 0.3665 0.0968 118.1
9 Homer Bailey 0.2613 0.4194 115.5

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Walker Buehler 0.1795 0.4667 168.9
2 Luis Castillo 0.1951 0.4688 168.4
3 Mike Minor 0.1875 0.4375 165.7
4 Michael Soroka 0.1562 0.4483 164.0
5 John Means 0.0769 0.3871 160.6
6 Homer Bailey 0.1389 0.4194 154.8
7 Hyun Jin Ryu 0.2121 0.4828 153.7
8 Brandon Woodruff 0.1481 0.5000 144.9
9 Brett Anderson 0.1714 0.4194 141.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Adam Wainwright 0.2006 0.4516 189.0
2 Chris Sale 0.5215 0.2400 170.6
3 Zack Greinke 0.3569 0.5455 154.9
4 Yu Darvish 0.3945 0.1935 144.9
5 Chris Bassitt 0.1334 0.3571 138.6
6 Merrill Kelly 0.2376 0.4062 133.1
7 Frankie Montas 0.2314 0.5625 131.5
8 Chris Archer 0.3770 0.1304 128.3
9 Ryan Yarbrough 0.1693 0.3929 127.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Brandon Woodruff 0.1875 0.5000 164.9
2 Chris Sale 0.5172 0.2400 156.2
3 Homer Bailey 0.2376 0.4194 141.8
4 Yu Darvish 0.4091 0.1935 141.5
5 Mike Clevinger 0.3750 0.6190 132.7
6 Frankie Montas 0.2581 0.5625 128.6
7 Brett Anderson 0.2727 0.4194 125.3
8 Walker Buehler 0.3214 0.4667 123.2
9 Adam Wainwright 0.3158 0.4516 117.6

Most Unique Misses for Win Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Michael Soroka 0.1562 0.3605 0.4483 164.0 67.0 97.0
2 Mike Minor 0.1875 0.3611 0.4375 165.7 72.7 92.9
3 Walker Buehler 0.1795 0.3711 0.4667 168.9 76.2 92.7
4 Justin Verlander 0.3250 0.4818 0.6176 198.7 121.7 77.0
5 Shane Bieber 0.2432 0.3980 0.4412 120.2 43.9 76.3
6 Luis Castillo 0.1951 0.3587 0.4688 168.4 92.1 76.3
7 Patrick Corbin 0.2381 0.3917 0.4242 107.0 33.8 73.2
8 John Means 0.0769 0.2569 0.3871 160.6 88.0 72.7
9 Merrill Kelly 0.2376 0.3929 0.4062 85.9 16.5 69.4
10 Germán Márquez 0.2727 0.4286 0.4286 70.5 5.7 64.8

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Merrill Kelly 0.2376 0.3929 0.4062 133.1 16.5 116.6
2 Matt Strahm 0.2639 0.1607 0.1304 63.7 10.9 52.8
3 Zack Greinke 0.3569 0.4207 0.5455 154.9 107.4 47.5
4 Jorge López 0.2696 0.1975 0.1026 90.1 47.7 42.4
5 José Suarez 0.3634 0.2682 0.1053 95.8 58.1 37.7
6 Nick Ramirez 0.2376 0.1395 0.1087 43.9 8.0 35.9
7 Tyler Beede 0.2831 0.2114 0.2083 37.7 2.5 35.2
8 Julio Urías 0.2584 0.1616 0.1081 48.1 14.9 33.3
9 Ryan Yarbrough 0.1693 0.2289 0.3929 127.4 96.8 30.6
10 Adam Wainwright 0.2006 0.2459 0.4516 189.0 159.1 29.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Gabriel Ynoa 0.2500 0.0775 0.0278 96.1 20.1 76.1
2 Daniel Norris 0.2917 0.1817 0.0938 107.3 48.8 58.5
3 Ian Kennedy 0.2917 0.0840 0.0476 59.1 7.6 51.5
4 Francisco Liriano 0.2692 0.0865 0.0725 52.6 1.9 50.8
5 Luis Perdomo 0.2692 0.0846 0.0426 60.6 10.1 50.5
6 Robert Stephenson 0.3077 0.1054 0.0526 61.1 11.8 49.3
7 Walker Buehler 0.3214 0.3711 0.4667 123.2 76.2 47.0
8 Aníbal Sánchez 0.2400 0.2910 0.3667 105.8 59.5 46.3
9 Wei-Yin Chen 0.2917 0.1474 0.0000 82.8 42.8 40.0
10 Spencer Turnbull 0.2800 0.2053 0.1000 103.7 63.9 39.8

Save Rate

Everybody Missed for Save Rate

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Roenis Elías 0.2917
0.0000
(60.7)
0.0370
(58.1)
0.0000
(60.6)
0.0000
(60.9)
Kirby Yates 0.6833
0.4604
(51.5)
0.1020
(144.8)
0.4371
(57.1)
0.4830
(46.3)
Ian Kennedy 0.4762
0.0000
(123.8)
0.0294
(122.7)
0.0000
(123.7)
0.0000
(124.1)
Carlos Martinez 0.5000
0.0000
(97.8)
0.0571
(91.5)
0.0000
(97.7)
0.0000
(98.0)
Liam Hendriks 0.3333
0.0000
(107.1)
0.0294
(105.7)
0.0000
(106.9)
0.0000
(107.4)
Hansel Robles 0.3239
0.0000
(88.6)
0.0238
(89.1)
0.0000
(88.5)
0.0000
(88.9)
Héctor Neris 0.4118
0.0000
(110.3)
0.1778
(68.4)
0.0000
(110.1)
0.0000
(110.5)
Josh Hader 0.6066
0.2626
(96.3)
0.1163
(145.9)
0.2800
(91.1)
0.2407
(102.9)
Taylor Rogers 0.5000
0.0266
(128.6)
0.0185
(137.9)
0.0289
(127.8)
0.0243
(129.5)
Emilio Pagán 0.3030
0.0000
(78.0)
0.0250
(78.1)
0.0000
(77.9)
0.0000
(78.3)
Brandon Workman 0.2192
0.0000
(59.6)
0.0294
(58.4)
0.0000
(59.5)
0.0000
(59.9)
Will Smith 0.5397
0.2936
(60.5)
0.1351
(107.7)
0.2731
(65.6)
0.3122
(56.0)
Luke Jackson 0.2571
0.0000
(77.6)
0.0303
(76.0)
0.0000
(77.5)
0.0000
(77.9)

Individual Misses for Save Rate

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Brasier 0.5710 0.1129 113.0
2 Blake Parker 0.4921 0.1667 85.7
3 Anthony Swarzak 0.3871 0.0678 77.2
4 Mychal Givens 0.4446 0.1897 69.1
5 Andrew Miller 0.3633 0.0822 68.9
6 Alex Colomé 0.2475 0.4839 56.2
7 Joakim Soria 0.1695 0.0141 46.2

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Archie Bradley 0.0426 0.2727 77.6
2 Brad Hand 0.2642 0.5667 76.7
3 Jeurys Familia 0.2708 0.0000 70.2
4 Fernando Rodney 0.3469 0.0364 62.2
5 Aroldis Chapman 0.3953 0.6167 55.4
6 Felipe Vázquez 0.2830 0.5000 54.6
7 Raisel Iglesias 0.3191 0.5000 54.5

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Ryan Brasier 0.5388 0.1129 105.4
2 Blake Parker 0.4807 0.1667 82.9
3 Mychal Givens 0.4522 0.1897 71.2
4 Jake Diekman 0.1609 0.0000 48.6
5 Joakim Soria 0.1640 0.0141 44.8
6 Matt Albers 0.2189 0.0597 44.0
7 Andrew Miller 0.2563 0.0822 43.8

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Anthony Swarzak 0.7259 0.0678 156.3
2 Ryan Brasier 0.6036 0.1129 120.6
3 Alex Colomé 0.0260 0.4839 111.6
4 Andrew Miller 0.4713 0.0822 94.1
5 Blake Parker 0.5029 0.1667 88.2
6 Mychal Givens 0.4360 0.1897 66.6
7 Joakim Soria 0.1745 0.0141 47.3

Most Unique Misses for Save Rate

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Kirby Yates 0.1020 0.4604 0.6833 144.8 51.5 93.3
2 Brad Hand 0.2642 0.4919 0.5667 76.7 15.5 61.3
3 Jeurys Familia 0.2708 0.0298 0.0000 70.2 11.1 59.1
4 Fernando Rodney 0.3469 0.0000 0.0364 62.2 5.4 56.8
5 Josh Hader 0.1163 0.2626 0.6066 145.9 96.3 49.6
6 Felipe Vázquez 0.2830 0.4641 0.5000 54.6 5.9 48.7
7 Raisel Iglesias 0.3191 0.5148 0.5000 54.5 7.1 47.4
8 Will Smith 0.1351 0.2936 0.5397 107.7 60.5 47.2
9 Zack Britton 0.2500 0.0361 0.0455 46.5 0.4 46.2
10 Roberto Osuna 0.4103 0.5537 0.5758 45.6 2.9 42.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Matt Albers 0.2189 0.1086 0.0597 44.0 15.4 28.6
2 Merrill Kelly 0.0307 0.0000 0.0000 32.6 8.4 24.3
3 Sean Doolittle 0.3314 0.4212 0.4603 30.6 7.4 23.2
4 Nick Ramirez 0.0307 0.0000 0.0000 14.6 3.7 10.9
5 Aroldis Chapman 0.4836 0.5288 0.6167 28.6 18.1 10.5
6 Roberto Osuna 0.5170 0.5537 0.5758 12.0 2.9 9.2
7 Edwin Díaz 0.5144 0.4824 0.3939 33.5 25.2 8.3
8 Shawn Armstrong 0.0000 0.0303 0.0727 16.7 8.6 8.1
9 Kirby Yates 0.4371 0.4604 0.6833 57.1 51.5 5.5
10 Will Smith 0.2731 0.2936 0.5397 65.6 60.5 5.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Anthony Swarzak 0.7259 0.3871 0.0678 156.3 77.2 79.0
2 Alex Colomé 0.0260 0.2475 0.4839 111.6 56.2 55.4
3 Andrew Miller 0.4713 0.3633 0.0822 94.1 68.9 25.2
4 Homer Bailey 0.0307 0.0000 0.0000 28.2 7.5 20.7
5 Zach Plesac 0.0307 0.0000 0.0000 19.2 5.1 14.1
6 Mark Melancon 0.2524 0.2182 0.1818 22.8 13.4 9.4
7 Nick Margevicius 0.0307 0.0000 0.0000 10.7 2.8 7.8
8 Ryan Brasier 0.6036 0.5710 0.1129 120.6 113.0 7.6
9 Josh Hader 0.2407 0.2626 0.6066 102.9 96.3 6.6
10 Brendan McKay 0.0307 0.0000 0.0000 8.8 2.3 6.4

ERA

Everybody Missed for ERA

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Kyle Freeland 6.7284
4.5869
(945.3)
3.4927
(1428.7)
4.6318
(927.6)
4.5416
(959.5)
Edwin Jackson 9.5764
4.9928
(1492.0)
4.3058
(1698.6)
5.2318
(1414.2)
4.7514
(1568.0)
José Suarez 7.1111
4.1984
(1038.6)
4.3273
(963.2)
4.2189
(1033.8)
4.1777
(1040.7)
Wade Davis 8.6484
3.8686
(955.2)
3.7380
(967.2)
4.0190
(925.8)
3.7185
(983.0)
Corbin Burnes 8.8163
4.2051
(1050.0)
3.7916
(1130.2)
4.4874
(985.5)
3.9237
(1112.6)
Dan Straily 9.8182
5.1671
(1063.9)
4.1117
(1295.9)
5.2911
(1036.4)
5.0418
(1089.9)
Antonio Senzatela 6.7139
4.6401
(1123.7)
4.4026
(1219.9)
4.8128
(1027.6)
4.4672
(1215.5)
Hyun Jin Ryu 2.3157
3.8012
(1177.5)
3.3720
(919.3)
3.7172
(1111.3)
3.8864
(1250.0)
Lucas Giolito 3.4132
5.1750
(1342.9)
5.1946
(1407.6)
5.3201
(1439.9)
5.0272
(1249.4)

Individual Misses for ERA

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Means 5.3521 3.6000 1207.2
2 Chris Sale 2.7034 4.3982 949.6
3 Sonny Gray 4.0375 2.8745 924.7
4 Michael Soroka 3.8449 2.6794 917.3
5 Jordan Zimmermann 4.9780 6.9107 902.0
6 Jake Odorizzi 4.7158 3.5094 887.9
7 Mike Minor 4.4666 3.5856 883.8
8 Dakota Hudson 4.3393 3.3492 857.8
9 Zack Greinke 3.8385 2.9329 849.4
10 Lance Lynn 4.4843 3.6720 836.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Sonny Gray 4.4143 2.8745 1242.6
2 Peter Lambert 4.3273 7.2537 1138.7
3 Shane Bieber 4.3829 3.2753 1136.3
4 Gerrit Cole 3.6399 2.5008 1106.5
5 Michael Soroka 4.0316 2.6794 1098.8
6 Jack Flaherty 3.8298 2.7504 999.4
7 Marcus Stroman 4.2241 3.2224 941.9
8 Trevor Williams 3.6932 5.3753 932.9
9 Jhoulys Chacín 3.8879 6.0097 896.1
10 Jeff Samardzija 4.5177 3.5239 894.7

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Means 5.3054 3.6000 1172.6
2 Michael Soroka 4.1249 2.6794 1108.3
3 Jake Odorizzi 4.9809 3.5094 1057.4
4 Zack Greinke 3.9864 2.9329 963.1
5 Gerrit Cole 3.5231 2.5008 945.9
6 Chris Sale 2.7844 4.3982 904.7
7 Dylan Covey 4.7473 7.9773 866.4
8 Dakota Hudson 4.3582 3.3492 866.4
9 Frankie Montas 4.6781 2.6250 862.3
10 Julio Teheran 4.8203 3.8130 861.7

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Means 5.4000 3.6000 1247.4
2 Sonny Gray 4.1396 2.8745 1007.7
3 Chris Sale 2.6209 4.3982 990.9
4 Jordan Zimmermann 4.8316 6.9107 968.2
5 Aaron Sanchez 4.1702 5.8934 946.8
6 Trevor Bauer 3.3029 4.4789 927.2
7 Mike Minor 4.4887 3.5856 915.9
8 Jeff Samardzija 4.5914 3.5239 907.0
9 Yusei Kikuchi 4.0468 5.4557 901.7
10 Aníbal Sánchez 4.9298 3.8494 881.9

Most Unique Misses for ERA

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Shane Bieber 4.3829 3.7816 3.2753 1136.3 557.8 578.5
2 Reynaldo López 4.1238 4.8345 5.3804 842.5 325.9 516.6
3 Adrian Sampson 4.2726 5.2502 5.8883 788.5 278.7 509.8
4 Kyle Freeland 3.4927 4.5869 6.7284 1428.7 945.3 483.4
5 Brett Anderson 4.8184 4.2569 3.8864 852.4 381.6 470.8
6 David Hess 4.5694 5.8208 7.0875 840.6 410.1 430.4
7 Trevor Williams 3.6932 4.3822 5.3753 932.9 540.6 392.3
8 Peter Lambert 4.3273 5.2970 7.2537 1138.7 761.7 377.0
9 Jon Lester 3.6347 4.1775 4.4563 463.3 103.7 359.6
10 Wade LeBlanc 3.9600 4.7033 5.7115 817.3 460.3 357.1

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Trent Thornton 4.0269 4.4053 4.8402 458.8 197.5 261.3
2 Mike Fiers 4.8178 4.5544 3.8989 795.0 602.1 192.9
3 Michael Soroka 4.1249 3.8449 2.6794 1108.3 917.3 191.0
4 Caleb Smith 4.0028 4.2801 4.5196 246.3 62.3 184.0
5 Jake Odorizzi 4.9809 4.7158 3.5094 1057.4 887.9 169.4
6 Mike Leake 4.7023 4.4987 4.2944 453.8 290.1 163.7
7 Max Fried 3.5761 3.9598 4.0201 216.6 58.1 158.5
8 Shaun Anderson 4.1391 4.4920 5.4375 496.6 342.6 153.9
9 Iván Nova 5.0152 4.8245 4.7166 349.9 202.3 147.6
10 Steven Brault 3.9504 4.2308 5.1618 543.3 397.9 145.4

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Max Fried 4.3653 3.9598 4.0201 353.4 58.1 295.2
2 Tyler Beede 5.5455 5.0488 5.0769 327.8 60.1 267.7
3 Jason Vargas 5.0784 4.6819 4.5100 471.5 204.4 267.1
4 Adrian Houser 5.4205 4.8984 3.7186 859.4 611.2 248.2
5 Aníbal Sánchez 4.9298 4.6150 3.8494 881.9 647.0 234.9
6 Elieser Hernández 5.9869 5.3835 5.0283 394.2 175.9 218.4
7 Jairo Díaz 5.8811 5.0455 4.5260 370.8 162.3 208.4
8 Asher Wojciechowski 5.9226 5.3720 4.9190 419.4 215.2 204.2
9 Trevor Williams 4.0558 4.3822 5.3753 738.6 540.6 198.0
10 Aaron Sanchez 4.1702 4.5096 5.8934 946.8 750.6 196.2

WHIP

Everybody Missed for WHIP

Player Actual Aggregate Marcel Steamer ZiPS
Ryan Yarbrough 0.9953
1.3456
(181.7)
1.2977
(172.9)
1.3609
(192.8)
1.3301
(171.7)
Jack Flaherty 0.9677
1.2239
(176.5)
1.2057
(187.3)
1.2346
(188.2)
1.2130
(166.3)
Lucas Giolito 1.0642
1.5174
(300.2)
1.3878
(231.5)
1.5407
(319.7)
1.4937
(281.8)
Justin Verlander 0.8027
1.0457
(182.6)
1.0670
(227.8)
1.0685
(205.5)
1.0231
(161.4)
Edwin Jackson 2.0246
1.4834
(191.1)
1.3508
(224.8)
1.4919
(186.8)
1.4749
(194.7)
Lance Lynn 1.2192
1.4656
(191.5)
1.3813
(145.9)
1.4323
(166.2)
1.5000
(219.6)
Dan Straily 1.9930
1.4334
(138.5)
1.2908
(164.6)
1.4368
(136.7)
1.4300
(139.9)
Antonio Senzatela 1.7487
1.4076
(214.5)
1.3358
(237.6)
1.4429
(191.4)
1.3723
(236.4)
Hyun Jin Ryu 1.0073
1.2354
(145.0)
1.2400
(171.6)
1.2209
(137.7)
1.2500
(153.9)
Yusei Kikuchi 1.5155
1.3525
(137.3)
1.2998
(152.1)
1.3561
(131.6)
1.3489
(141.6)
Sonny Gray 1.0837
1.3257
(151.9)
1.3690
(205.3)
1.3468
(169.9)
1.3043
(135.1)
Gerrit Cole 0.8948
1.1371
(175.5)
1.1856
(241.4)
1.1465
(186.8)
1.1277
(165.9)

Individual Misses for WHIP

Aggregate

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Means 1.4359 1.1355 173.8
2 Zack Greinke 1.2036 0.9824 156.9
3 Jon Lester 1.3226 1.4971 154.3
4 Jakob Junis 1.2633 1.4259 146.5
5 Jeurys Familia 1.2365 1.7333 143.7
6 Nick Kingham 1.3438 1.8503 138.3
7 Sandy Alcantara 1.5099 1.3176 138.2
8 Drew Smyly 1.3603 1.5877 131.0

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Shane Bieber 1.3266 1.0544 237.8
2 Chris Paddack 1.2998 0.9810 183.7
3 Peter Lambert 1.2998 1.7351 180.8
4 Michael Soroka 1.3439 1.1107 166.7
5 Homer Bailey 1.5480 1.3163 164.5
6 Jon Lester 1.2779 1.4971 163.9
7 Gregory Soto 1.2998 1.8555 152.1
8 Corbin Burnes 1.2195 1.8367 144.0

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 Zack Greinke 1.2604 0.9824 206.4
2 John Means 1.4142 1.1355 162.8
3 Jakob Junis 1.2516 1.4259 152.2
4 Nick Kingham 1.2908 1.8503 150.9
5 Yusmeiro Petit 1.3110 0.8072 148.0
6 Trent Thornton 1.2151 1.4060 144.9
7 Drew Smyly 1.3373 1.5877 140.6
8 Jeurys Familia 1.2488 1.7333 139.1

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Actual Error
1 John Means 1.4581 1.1355 186.5
2 Jon Lester 1.2944 1.4971 177.7
3 Sandy Alcantara 1.5352 1.3176 157.4
4 Jeurys Familia 1.2239 1.7333 147.8
5 Robert Stephenson 1.6050 1.0361 141.2
6 Jakob Junis 1.2753 1.4259 139.1
7 Aaron Nola 1.1354 1.2652 136.0
8 Blake Treinen 1.1408 1.6193 135.2

Most Unique Misses for WHIP

Players where this system’s error exceeded Aggregate’s error by the largest margin.

Marcel

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Shane Bieber 1.3266 1.1973 1.0544 237.8 99.1 138.7
2 Gregory Soto 1.2998 1.8227 1.8555 152.1 16.6 135.4
3 Homer Bailey 1.5480 1.4313 1.3163 164.5 60.9 103.6
4 Chris Paddack 1.2998 1.1750 0.9810 183.7 94.6 89.1
5 Spencer Turnbull 1.3145 1.4685 1.4360 76.6 3.3 73.3
6 Gerrit Cole 1.1856 1.1371 0.8948 241.4 175.5 65.8
7 Michael Soroka 1.3439 1.2853 1.1107 166.7 103.2 63.6
8 Reynaldo López 1.3065 1.4139 1.4565 117.6 56.7 60.9
9 Germán Márquez 1.2808 1.2366 1.2011 60.8 5.7 55.0
10 Trevor Williams 1.2626 1.3795 1.4142 93.4 39.5 53.9

Steamer

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Clayton Kershaw 1.1404 1.0723 1.0430 52.4 1.3 51.1
2 Zack Greinke 1.2604 1.2036 0.9824 206.4 156.9 49.5
3 Mike Leake 1.3886 1.3420 1.2893 63.5 21.0 42.5
4 Trent Thornton 1.2151 1.2810 1.4060 144.9 103.2 41.7
5 Steven Brault 1.3924 1.4627 1.5000 66.0 32.7 33.3
6 Kyle Hendricks 1.2816 1.2407 1.1299 93.8 60.8 33.0
7 Eric Lauer 1.3491 1.4003 1.3964 45.8 15.4 30.4
8 Brad Keller 1.4407 1.4049 1.3548 44.5 16.0 28.5
9 Julio Teheran 1.4096 1.3788 1.3225 48.2 21.7 26.6
10 Stephen Strasburg 1.1875 1.1615 1.0383 106.1 80.5 25.6

ZiPS

Rank Player Proj Agg Actual Error Agg Err Unique
1 Max Fried 1.5090 1.4334 1.3340 101.9 50.5 51.4
2 Tyler Beede 1.6970 1.6012 1.4786 98.6 49.7 48.8
3 Clayton Kershaw 1.0061 1.0723 1.0430 47.1 1.3 45.8
4 Jairo Díaz 1.7822 1.6015 1.3006 110.7 67.0 43.7
5 Caleb Smith 1.4098 1.3511 1.2261 99.4 63.0 36.4
6 Trevor Williams 1.3262 1.3795 1.4142 74.9 39.5 35.4
7 Scott Barlow 1.5956 1.4789 1.4360 40.2 4.8 35.4
8 Luis Perdomo 1.5158 1.3945 1.2083 82.2 47.0 35.2
9 Robert Stephenson 1.6050 1.4702 1.0361 141.2 106.5 34.7
10 Asher Wojciechowski 1.5097 1.4129 1.3117 60.7 26.6 34.1